Broncos

New England Patriots at Denver Broncos: 2025 AFC Championship Pick

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New England Patriots (16-3) at Denver Broncos (15-3)

The Broncos won a dramatic overtime game over the Bills last week, but got devastating news after the game when they found out that Bo Nix broke a bone in his ankle on one of the last plays of the game and needs surgery that will end his season. In his absence, the Broncos will turn to backup Jarrett Stidham in one of the biggest games of the season. In seven seasons in the league, Stidham has started four games, all of which came at the end of the season for a team that was already eliminated, and the former fourth round pick has just a 78.3 QB rating on 197 career pass attempts.

With Nix out and Stidham in, the Broncos are 5.5-point home underdogs this week and the public is heavily on the Patriots, with about 75% of the money on them. That seems like an overreaction though, as the early line was Denver -1.5. That means this line has shifted 7 points for Nix’s absence, which is a massive amount for a non-elite quarterback. Normally injuries to quarterbacks of Nix’s caliber trigger about a 4-5 point line movement. 

My calculated line has the Patriots favored by a field goal, so we’re getting good line value at +5.5. The Broncos have never been an offensive team, ranking 20th in first down rate and 15th in yards per play at 29.92% and 5.32 respectively, while their defense ranks 4th in first down rate allowed and 2nd in yards per play allowed at 27.64% and 4.55 respectively. The Patriots have just 4.91 yards per play and a 24.81% first down rate in two home post-season games against tough defenses (Chargers and Texans) and figure to struggle to move the ball again this week, especially on the road. I still think the Patriots will win, but in what should be a low scoring game, I like getting 5.5 points with the home team. I would bet the Broncos at anything 4.5 or higher.

New England Patriots 16 Denver Broncos 13

Pick against the spread: Denver +5.5

Confidence: Medium

Buffalo Bills at Denver Broncos: 2025 AFC Divisional Round Pick

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Buffalo Bills (13-5) at Denver Broncos (14-3)

These two teams met in the first round of the post-season last year and the Bills covered fairly easily as 8-point favorites, winning 31-7. This time around, the Broncos are favored by 1.5. What has changed since then? Well for one, this game is in Denver rather than Buffalo, which matters somewhat, but not nearly enough for a 9.5-point line movement. It would also seem the Broncos are better this year than last year, going from 10-7 to 14-3, while the Bills are worse, going from 13-4 to 12-5. However, that might not be as true as it seems.

The Bills have fallen from a +157 point differential in 2024 to a +116 point differential this season, but, overall, their team is very similar to a year ago. Of their top-11 players in terms of snaps played on either side of the ball in last year’s game against the Broncos, at least 15 and up to 18 of 22 are expected to play in this game, depending on the final injury report. The Broncos, on the other hand, actually had a better point differential last season (+114) compared to this season (+90), as the biggest reason for their improved record this season is that they went from 1-6 in one-score games to 9-2. Meanwhile, of their top-11 players in terms of snaps played on either side of the ball in last year’s game against the Bills, 16 of 22 are expected to play in this game.

Two of the six who won’t play for the Broncos this season that played last year are center Luke Wattenburg and safety Brandon Jones, who both got hurt down the stretch this season and could prove to be big absences in this game. Meanwhile, the Bills are relatively healthy. Tight end Dalton Kincaid missed 5 games this season, right tackle Spencer Brown missed 3, interior defender Daquan Jones missed 5, and fellow interior defender Ed Oliver missed 15, but only Oliver is at risk of missing this game. At the very least, I like betting on the money line this week, as the Bills should be favored in this game, but I may end up betting on the spread as well, depending on the final injury report.

Update: Ed Oliver is playing, which is enough for me to increase this to a medium confidence bet.

Buffalo Bills 23 Denver Broncos 20 Upset Pick +105

Pick against the spread: Buffalo +1.5

Confidence: Medium

Denver Broncos at Kansas City Chiefs: 2025 Week 17 NFL Pick

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Denver Broncos (11-3) at Kansas City Chiefs (6-8)

The Chiefs have had a disastrous two-week stretch. First, they were eliminated from playoff contention in a loss to the Chargers and lost quarterback Patrick Mahomes to a torn ACL. Then last week, backup quarterback Gardner Minshew suffered a season ending knee injury of his own in a game in which the Chiefs lost by 17 to arguably the worst team in the league in the Tennessee Titans. As a result, the Chiefs are now 13.5-point home underdogs against the Broncos, a week after being just 5.5-point home underdogs on the advance list and, despite that, the vast majority of the public money is still on the Broncos. 

As crazy as it sounds, I actually think this has created a good betting spot. The Chiefs are very injury plagued, but they still have a fair amount of talented players healthy on this roster, particularly on defense. I think their poor performance last week was more the result of a lack of effort in a bad spot, off of a playoff elimination, against a last place team, four days before a nationally televised Christmas game against a division leader, rather than a complete lack of talent. I expect a much better effort this week in a much better spot. 

The Broncos also don’t have a lot of big wins by big margins, winning by more than four points just five times and by more than eight points just two times, neither of which came on the road. In fact, their average margin of victory in four road wins is just 3.75 points. Bad teams like the Raiders (twice), Jets, Giants, Titans, and Commanders have all played the Broncos within 8 points this season and I like the Chiefs’ chances of at least keeping it within 13. This is a high confidence pick.

Denver Broncos 20 Kansas City Chiefs 13

Pick against the spread: Kansas City +13.5

Confidence: High

Las Vegas Raiders at Denver Broncos: 2025 Week 10 NFL Pick

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Las Vegas Raiders (2-6) at Denver Broncos (7-2)

The Raiders lost last week when they went for two at the end of overtime against the Jaguars, instead of tying it up with an extra point. It was the right decision, despite the outcome, as it is much better for team morale to play for a win rather than for a tie. However, the Raiders actually should have gone for two on their last touchdown drive of the fourth quarter. Even if the result had been the same, that would have prevented them from having to play overtime at all, which is important because they had Thursday Night Football next on the schedule.

Now coming off of an overtime game, the Raiders are in a near impossible situation on a short week. Teams are just 6-25 ATS all-time on Thursday Night Football after an overtime game. As underdogs of a touchdown or more, teams are 1-7 ATS and 0-8 straight up, losing by an average of 16.4 points per game on an average line of +9.4. Making matters worse, this is the Raiders’ second game in five days following a bye, a spot in which teams are 11-23 ATS all-time, as long as their opponent is not in the same situation. This isn’t a big bet on the Broncos as 8.5-point home favorites because we aren’t getting any line value (my calculated line is Denver -7.5), but this spot is good enough to bet on that alone. I have a hard time seeing the Raiders keeping this one close, given the situation they are in.

Early Locked Bets: WAS +8.5, IND -6.5, NYG +4.5, LAC -2.5

On a personal note, a member of the NFL picks community, Gerry Shultz, is having a hard time and needs some support. Here is a link to his GoFundMe: https://www.gofundme.com/f/support-gerrys-parkinsons-and-lewy-body-dementia-care Any support is appreciated!

Denver Broncos 26 Las Vegas Raiders 13

Pick against the spread: Denver -8.5

Confidence: Medium

Denver Broncos vs. New York Jets: 2025 Week 6 NFL Pick

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Denver Broncos (3-2) vs. New York Jets (0-5) in London

Normally the Broncos would be in a good spot in this game, as favorites tend to cover in international games, especially big favorites, with favorites of a touchdown or more going 9-2 ATS. However, the Broncos could be a little flat, facing a winless team after a big upset win in Philadelphia last week. Teams cover at just a 41.1% rate as favorites of 4 or more after an upset win as underdogs of 4 or more, while winless teams tend to be a good betting proposition, as teams 0-4 or worse cover at a 55.7% rate.

The Jets also haven’t been as bad as their record suggests in terms of yards per play differential (23rd at -0.43) and first down rate differential (16th at +0.31%), which are more predictive than win/loss records. Their biggest issue has been the turnover margin, in which they rank dead last at -8, but that tends to have high week-to-week variance. A big part of why they haven’t been so bad in yards per play differential and first down rate differential is their performance in garbage time, but that can’t be ignored when a line is a full touchdown. 

The Jets have lost three of their five games by fewer than 7 points, including 2-point losses to a pair of decent or better teams in the Steelers and Buccaneers. On the other hand, the Broncos don’t normally take their foot off the gas when winning by multiple scores, ranking tied for 2nd in the NFL with 10 wins by 8 points or more over the past two seasons, so I am still comfortable picking them for pick ‘em purposes, but it wouldn’t be a surprise if the Jets made this one close and covered the spread, so I wouldn’t bet on the Broncos.

Week 6 Early Locked Bet: CLE +6.5

Denver Broncos 27 New York Jets 17

Pick against the spread: Denver -7

Confidence: Low

Denver Broncos 2025 NFL Season Preview

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Quarterback

Going into 2024, the Broncos looked like they could be one of the worst teams in the league. A failed trade for Russell Wilson cost them a pair of first and a pair of second round picks and, even though he wasn’t even on the roster anymore, Wilson was on the Broncos’ cap for 53 million in 2024. The Broncos also traded away a first and second round pick to get head coach Sean Payton, who didn’t seem to move the needle in his first season with the team in 2023. On top of that, the Broncos used another first round pick to draft Wilson’s replacement, Bo Nix, in the 2024 NFL Draft. With all of those resources spent on the quarterback and head coach, there wasn’t a lot left over for the rest of this roster.

However, head coach Sean Payton and his defensive coordinator Vance Joseph got the most out of this roster in 2024, including quarterback Bo Nix, who exceeded expectations as a rookie. The result is the Broncos made a surprise playoff appearance at 10-7 and, while they were blown out by the Bills in that playoff appearance, this team was clearly ahead of schedule. With their cap clearing out somewhat this off-season, the Broncos had some money to spend to fill out some holes on this roster.

There are some reasons to be concerned the Broncos might not be able to make it back to the post-season in 2025, even with the additions they made this off-season. For one, they figure to have more injuries, after having the 6th fewest adjusted games lost to injury of any team in the league last season. Their injury situation was even better than that suggests, as their top-4 players on offense and on defense in terms of PFF grade last season missed a combined two games, so what few injuries they had did not significantly impact their best players. The Broncos are also starting from a lower base point than their record suggests, ranking 12th in yards per play differential and 15th in first down rate differential, which is even worse if you take out their week 18 win over the Chiefs’ backups, in which the Broncos won the first down rate battle by 14.71% and the yards per play battle by 2.97. 

Beyond the Broncos’ off-season additions, if there is a reason to expect the Broncos to make it back to the post-season, despite the aforementioned things working against them, it is continued development from Bo Nix. Not only did Nix complete 66.3% of his passes for an average of 6.66 YPA, 29 touchdowns, and 12 interceptions as a rookie, ranking 19th among quarterbacks on PFF with a 76.4 grade, but he completed 69.7% of his passes for an average of 7.37 YPA, 24 touchdowns, and 7 interceptions in his final 10 regular season starts, while receiving a PFF grade of 84.6 over that stretch, 11th among quarterbacks. He could easily continue developing and be better overall in his second season in the league in 2025.

Nix will continue being backed up by veteran journeyman Jarrett Stidham, who has made just four starts in six seasons in the league, with a 78.3 QB rating in his career. Even as far as backup options, Stidham is an underwhelming one, so the Broncos would be in trouble if Nix missed more than a couple games this season. Fortunately, he doesn’t have a significant history of injury issues. As long as that continues in 2025, there is a good chance this season is better than last season for him.

Grade: B+

Receiving Corps

One of the big free agent additions for the Jaguars this off-season was tight end Evan Engram. Engram has averaged 1.42 yards per route run in his career and averaged 1.51 yards per route run last season, but he missed 8 games due to injury, which limited him to a 47/365/1 slash line, and now he is going into his age 31 season, so he could start to decline in 2025. However, it wouldn’t be hard for him to be an upgrade over what the Broncos had at tight end last season, when none of their tight ends surpassed 200 yards receiving and the tight end position overall accounted for just 13.1% of the team’s targets, 2nd fewest of any team in the league. The tight end position was a big part of Sean Payton’s offense when he was with the Saints, so I would expect Engram to have a high usage in 2025, even if he’s not quite at his best.

All three of the tight ends who played significant snaps for the Broncos last season, Adam Trautman (572 snaps), Nate Adkins (419 snaps), and Lucas Krull (301 snaps) remain on the roster, but they will obviously play a smaller role in 2025, if they play any role at all. None of them will play a big role in the passing game, with Trautman, Adkins, and Krull averaging 0.97, 0.87, and 0.70 yards per route run in their careers respectively, but Trautman and Adkins were primarily involved as blockers last season and could continue seeing roles in that aspect. 

The Broncos only had one wide receiver with more than 502 receiving yards last season, but that wasn’t because they didn’t have good wide receivers. Instead, it was because only one of their wide receivers played an every down role, with four others rotating snaps. Courtland Sutton was their top receiver, turning 135 targets into a 81/1081/8 slash line with 1.84 yards per route run. In his career, he has a 1.66 yards per route run average and has exceeded 700 yards receiving in every healthy season of his career. Last season was only the second 1000+ yard season of his career, but it was also the first season of his career in which he had a decent quarterback. The bigger problem is he is now heading into his age 30 season and could start declining soon. He’ll likely remain an above average receiver for at least one more season, but he might not be quite as good as he was a year ago.

Of the four wide receivers who rotated snaps last season, two of them were significantly better than the other two, as Marvin Mims (297 snaps) and Devaughn Vele (448 snaps) averaged 2.57 and 1.51 yards per route run respectively, while Lil’Jordan Humphrey (545 snaps) and Troy Franklin (386 snaps) averaged 1.01 and 0.99 yards per route run respectively. In 2025, Humphrey is gone, but he was replaced by third round rookie Pat Bryant, so the Broncos could continue rotating wide receivers heavily, but they might be better off making Mims and Vele their primary #2 and #3 receiver and leaving Bryant and Franklin as reserves, even if Franklin is a 2024 4th round pick who could take a step forward in his second season in the league.

Vele is also a second year receiver, only being selected in the 7th round last season, but he well exceeded his draft slot as a rookie. He’s still pretty inexperienced and might not be able to translate last season’s promising season into a larger role, but he should at least be given a chance to. Mims, meanwhile, was a 2nd round pick in 2023 and hasn’t played more than a situational role yet, but he also averaged 1.54 yards per route run as a rookie before taking a step forward in his second season in the league in 2024. 

Mims probably wouldn’t be as efficient in a bigger role in 2025 as he was in a smaller role in 2024, but he could still be an above average #2 wide receiver even if he’s not quite as efficient. Massively talented and still only in his age 23 season, he has obvious breakout potential if he plays an expanded role this season. The Broncos may continue rotating these young wide receivers, but they would probably be better off not doing that. This receiving corps has a lot of upside, but it’s worth noting that their top wide receiver and top tight end are both on the wrong side of 30.

Grade: B+

Running Backs

Running backs were a big part of the Broncos’ passing game last season, as they ranked 5th in the NFL with 21.4% of their targets going to running backs. I would expect that number to come down this season, in part because the Broncos’ receiving corps should be better, but also in part because Javonte Williams, their top passing down back last season with 1.22 yards per route run, is no longer with the team. Williams has been replaced by 2nd round rookie RJ Harvey, who has some pass catching upside and who should be an upgrade as a runner over Williams, who averaged just 3.69 YPC on 139 carries as the lead back last season, but I wouldn’t expect Harvey to be quite as productive in the passing game as Williams was.

Even as a second round rookie, Harvey has a clear path to a big role in this backfield. Their other running back options are Audric Estime, a 2024 5th round pick who averaged 4.08 YPC on 76 carries with just 0.68 yards per route run as a rookie, and Jaleel McLaughlin, who has averaged 4.79 YPC in two seasons in the league, but only across 189 total carries and, at 5-7 187, it’s unlikely he’s capable of handling a significantly bigger workload than that. McLaughlin will likely remain involved as a change of pace back, but he’s not a candidate for a significant workload and the same is probably true of Estime, who was underwhelming overall as a rookie. Unless Harvey breaks out as a talented feature back right away, this is an underwhelming backfield.

Grade: B-

Offensive Line

The Broncos’ offensive line was the strength of their offense last season, ranking 1st in pass blocking grade and 11th in run blocking grade on PFF. The good news is they return all five starters from a year ago. The bad news is two of their starters are on the wrong side of 30 and could decline in 2025, perhaps significantly, as left tackle Garett Bolles is in his age 33 season and right tackle Mike McGlinchey is in his age 31 season. They had PFF grades of 78.8 and 74.0 last season, but it’s pretty unlikely that both are as good again in 2025 as they were in 2024, given their ages.

Bolles has finished above 70 on PFF in all eight seasons in the league (116 starts), so he’s starting from a pretty high base point and would likely remain a solid starter at the very least even if he declines, but any significant decline from him would have a noticeable effect on this offensive line. McGlinchey hasn’t been quite as good in his career, but he’s finished above 65 on PFF in all seven seasons in the league (98 starts), including four seasons above 70. He’s a couple years younger than Bolles, so he’s less likely to decline and, even if he does, he could remain a solid starter, but, like with Bolles, any significant decline from him would have a noticeable effect on this offensive line.

This offensive line should still be pretty good though. Right guard Quinn Meinerz was their best offensive lineman last season and, still in his prime in his age 27 season, he should continue dominating in 2025. A 3rd round pick in 2021, Meinerz has finished above 65 on PFF in all four seasons in the league and has developed into one of the best guards in the league over the past two seasons, ranking 3rd and 2nd respectively among guards on PFF with PFF grades of 83.7 and 88.2 respectively, while making all 34 starts. He should continue playing at a similar level in 2025.

Center Luke Wattenberg and left guard Ben Powers were their weakest starters last season, with PFF grades of 63.3 and 63.9 respectively. Wattenberg was a 5th round pick in 2022 and only played 129 mediocre snaps in his first two seasons in the league prior to last season, so he’s a one-year wonder in terms of even being a decent starter and could regress somewhat in 2025. Powers, on the other hand, is at least more proven, making 63 starts over the past four seasons and finishing above 60 on PFF in all four seasons, but he’s maxed out with a 66.3 PFF grade, so he hasn’t shown much upside. Already in his age 29 season, Powers is who he is at this stage of his career and will likely have a similar season again in 2025.

The Broncos’ depth last season also played pretty well when needed, as backup center/guard Alex Forsyth had a 65.2 PFF grade in four starts and backup tackles Matt Peart and Alex Palczewski had PFF grades of 67.4 and 63.4 in two starts and three starts respectively. Forsyth and Palczewski were 7th round picks and undrafted free agents in 2023 and didn’t play a snap as a rookie, so they’re both very unproven, but they did at least flash some upside last season. 

Peart is the most experienced of the bunch, making nine starts in five seasons in the league since going in the 3rd round in 2020, and he’s been decent, if inconsistent, with PFF grades above 60 on PFF in three of five seasons in the league. They might not be as good again in 2025 if forced into significant action, but they’re not bad depth. This offensive line is likely to not be quite as good as it was last year, but this is still a well above average group.

Grade: B+

Edge Defenders

The Broncos’ defense was the strength of this team last season, ranking 3rd in yards per play allowed and 6th in first down rate allowed, as opposed to the offense ranking 20th in yards per play and 22nd in first down rate. One very impressive aspect of this defense was their pass rush, which led the NFL with 63 sacks, nine more than any other team. Starting edge defenders Jonathan Cooper and Nik Bonitto both had double digit sacks, with totals of 10.5 sacks, 11 hits, and a 13.0% pressure rate and 13.5 sacks, 11 hits, and a 14.0% pressure rate respectively, while receiving PFF grades of 71.8 and 77.5 respectively. 

For both players, it was a career best year, especially for Bonitto, who had PFF grades of just 52.4 and 64.0 on snap counts of just 357 and 524 respectively in his first two seasons in the league prior to last season. Bonitto was a 2nd round pick in 2022 and has always had upside, so it’s possible he has permanently turned a corner, but he also could regress a little bit in 2025, though I wouldn’t expect him to regress all the way back to his 2022-2023 form. Cooper, meanwhile, is a 2021 7th round pick who has finished above 60 on PFF in all four seasons in the league, though he only combined for 13 sacks, 17 hits, and a 11.0% pressure rate in 47 games in his first three seasons in the league, so last season was definitely his best season in that aspect. Like Bonitto, he could regress a little, but he also could have permanently turned a corner.

Jonah Elliss (436 snaps) and Dondrea Tillman (243 snaps) were their top reserves last season and had different results. Elliss had 5 sacks in a part-time role, but only added one quarterback hit and a 8.3% pressure rate, while Tillman also had 5 sacks, but added 3 hits, and a 13.7% pressure rate. Both were rookies, but Elliss went in the 3rd round, while Tillman went undrafted, so Elliss may still have the higher upside long-term and could continue playing a bigger role than Tillman. Elliss could take a step forward in his second season in the league, while Tillman has yet to show enough that we can ignore that the whole league passed on him in the draft just a year ago. The Broncos also added Que Robinson in the 4th round of this year’s draft to give themselves some more depth, but he would likely need at least one, if not multiple significant injuries ahead of him on the depth chart to play a significant role in year one. This is a talented position group overall. 

Grade: B+

Interior Defenders

The Broncos also got a great pass rush from the interior. John Franklin-Myers and Zach Allen, their top-2 interior defenders, had their issues against the run, but as pass rushers they had 7 sacks, 10 hits, and a 14.4% pressure rate and 8.5 sacks, 31 hits, and a 11.7% pressure rate respectively. For both players, it was a career best year, but both have been good pass rushers in the past as well, as Allen combined for 10.5 sacks, 32 hits, and a 9.6% pressure rate in 30 games from 2022-2023, while Franklin-Myers combined for 17.5 sacks, 43 hits, and a 13.5% pressure rate in 65 games from 2020-2023. Both are still on the right side of 30, in their age 28 and age 29 seasons respectively so, while they might not quite repeat the best season of their career again in 2025, both should remain high level pass rushers.

Malcolm Roach (489 snaps) also was a useful pass rusher as a reserve, with 2.5 sacks, 5 hits, and a 9.1% pressure rate. That was out of character for him though, as he finished above 60 on PFF in pass rush grade and in overall grade in three of his first four seasons in the league prior to last season, on an average of just 258 snaps per season, while managing just a 5.3% pressure rate across those four seasons. It’s very possible the 2020 undrafted free agent proves last season to be a little bit of a fluke, but he’s not a bad reserve option to have. 

With Franklin-Myers, Allen, and Roach all being better pass rushers than run defenders, DJ Jones (465 snaps) was probably the Broncos’ best interior defender against the run last season and he added a 6.7% pressure rate as well, leading to a decent overall PFF grade of 64.1. Jones has mostly been a solid rotational player in recent years, exceeding 60 on PFF in five of the past six seasons on an average of 478 snaps per season, but he’s now going into his age 30 season and could start to decline soon. 

The Broncos also have Jordan Jackson, but he struggled mightily with a 40.5 PFF grade across 310 snaps last season in the first action of the 2022 6th round pick’s career. The Broncos return all five of their top interior defenders from a year ago, but with Roach being a one-year wonder, Jones going into his age 30 season, and Jackson struggling, the Broncos felt they needed more depth and added Sai’Vion Jones in the 3rd round of the draft and he has a good chance to earn a reserve role in year one. This is a deep and talented position group.

Grade: A-

Linebackers

The Broncos’ top-2 linebackers in terms of snaps played last season were Cody Barton (1,053 snaps) and Justin Strnad (676 snaps). Barton (66.1 PFF grade) left as a free agent, while Strnad (55.5 PFF grade) struggled last season, but the Broncos do get Alex Singleton back after a torn ACL cost him all but 190 snaps in three games last season and they added Dre Greenlaw in free agency on a 3-year, 31.5 million dollar deal. They figure to be the starters this season.

Both Singleton and Greenlaw are coming off injury plagued seasons though, as Greenlaw was also limited to 34 snaps by a torn achilles last season. Greenlaw has finished above 65 on PFF in four straight seasons, with two seasons over 80, but he’s also missed 33 games due to injury over that stretch. Still only in his age 28 season, he has a lot of potential if he’s healthy, but that’s not a guarantee. Singleton, meanwhile, doesn’t have the same injury history as Greenlaw, but he’s going into his age 32 season and doesn’t quite have the same upside as Greenlaw either, though he has finished above 60 on PFF with a maximum PFF grade of 79.1 in 2022. He could have another solid season as an every down player, but that’s not a guarantee.

Strnad remains as a reserve, but he’s never had any success. The 2020 5th round pick played just 5 snaps between 2022-2023, after struggling mightily with a 32.0 PFF grade across 314 snaps in the first action of his career in 2021, so last season was actually the best season of his career, even though he struggled. He could face competition for the top reserve role from Drew Sanders, who was a 3rd round pick in 2023, but has yet to live up to the billing, struggling across just 278 snaps in two seasons in the league. Sanders could still have some untapped upside, but that’s not a guarantee. The Broncos’ lack of depth at linebacker is a concern, given that the starters are coming off of lost seasons due to injury, but this group does have upside if the starters stay healthy and play at close to their best.

Grade: B

Secondary

The Broncos got great seasons from a pair of defensive backs, cornerback Pat Surtain and safety Brandon Jones, who finished with PFF grades of 85.6 and 86.7 respectively, while making 16 starts each. For Surtain, this performance was not surprising, as the 2021 9th overall pick also had a 86.8 PFF grade in 2022, though he has been a bit inconsistent, with PFF grades of 66.1 and 69.0 in 2021 and 2023 respectively. Despite that inconsistency, Surtain has as high of an upside as any cornerback in the league, still only going into his age 25 season.

For Jones, last season’s dominant performance came out of nowhere, as he had never played more than 644 snaps in a season prior to last season, with a career best PFF grade of 76.8 in 2023, across just 464 snaps, and three seasons below 70 out of four seasons in the league. Jones is still in his prime in his age 27 season, but there is a good chance last season proves to be a fluke. That being said, it wouldn’t surprise me at all if he remained at least an above average starter, even if he’s not quite as good as he was last season.

The rest of this secondary was not nearly as good last season, as #2 and #3 cornerbacks Riley Moss and Ja’Quan McMillian finished with PFF grades of 61.2 and 59.9 respectively across snap counts of 836 and 870 respectively, while their other starting safety, PJ Locke, had a 57.5 PFF grade across 1,000 snaps. To improve the rest of this group, the Broncos signed safety Talanoa Hufanga to a 3-year, 39 million dollar deal and used their first round pick on cornerback Jahdae Barron. 

Hufanga will take over at safety next to Jones. The 2021 5th round pick had a 68.8 PFF grade across 1,029 snaps in 2022 and seemed to be on his way to an even better season in 2023, when he had a 70.5 PFF grade, but his season was cut short (577 snaps in 10 games) by a torn ACL and he was not the same upon his return in 2024, when he was limited to just 308 snaps in seven games and had just a 57.8 PFF grade. Now another year removed from the injury and still only going into his age 26 season, Hufanga has obvious bounce back potential if he’s healthy. It wouldn’t be hard for him to be a significant upgrade over Locke, who is now the primary reserve, a role he was much more comfortable in prior to last season, when he averaged just 137 snaps per season in his first five seasons in the league.

Barron, meanwhile, will compete for a starting job right away at cornerback and will likely beat out either Moss or McMillan. Moss was a 2023 3rd round pick, but he only played 25 nondescript snaps as a rookie before being underwhelming as a starter in 2024. He still could have untapped upside, going into his age 25 season and his third season in the league, but he shouldn’t be guaranteed a starting job. McMillan, meanwhile, went undrafted in 2022, played just 68 snaps as a rookie, and seemed to breakout with a 68.4 PFF grade across 669 snaps in 2023, before regressing in 2024. Barron will likely be an upgrade over whoever he replaces in the starting lineup. Surtain and Jones might not be quite as good as they were last season, but the additions of Hufanga and Barron should offset any regression from them.

Grade: A-

Kicker

Will Lutz ranked 8th among kickers with 7.51 points above average last season, but he’s been inconsistent in the past, including three straight seasons prior to last season when he finished below average, costing his teams 14.95 points across the three seasons. Lutz is now going into his age 31 season, which isn’t over the hill for a kicker, but he’s not guaranteed to be anywhere near as good in 2025 as he was in 2024, given his history of inconsistency.

Grade: B

Conclusion

The Broncos were not as good as their final record suggested last season, with a yards per play differential of +0.30 and a first down rate differential of +0.52%, and they were one of the healthiest teams in the league, with the 6th fewest adjusted games lost to injury in the league, which is not guaranteed to happen again. However, they got better as last season went on, as rookie quarterback Bo Nix developed, which could continue into this season, and they made a few significant additions this off-season like Evan Engram, Dee Greenlaw, and Talanoa Hufanga, without having any losses that were as significant. All in all, the Broncos at least have a good chance to make it back to the post-season, though I don’t think they are quite good enough to be true Super Bowl contenders.

Prediction: 9-8, 3rd in AFC West

Denver Broncos at Buffalo Bills: 2024 AFC Wild Card Round Pick

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Denver Broncos (10-7) at Buffalo Bills (13-4)

The Bills finished the regular season at 13-4, 13-3 if we don’t include a meaningless week 18 game in which they rested their starters, but, even if we ignore week 18, the Bills had just a first down rate differential of just +1.50% and a yards per play differential of +0.55 this season, which are more significantly more predictive than win/loss records. The Bills did lead the league with a +24 turnover margin, but turnover margins tend to be inconsistent week-to-week, which is why first down rate and yards per play tend to be much more predictive than anything. In fact, teams with turnover margins better than +1 per game have a turnover margin on average of -0.3 in the post-season, leading to them going 20-26 ATS, 22-24 straight up, 11-16 ATS as favorites, and 5-11 ATS with 7 straight up losses as favorites of 4 or more.

The Bills also faced a relatively easy schedule this season, facing just five playoff opponents, tied for the fewest among playoff qualifiers. Making matters worse, the Bills won just two of those games, with no wins by more than nine points, relevant considering this line is nine. The Broncos haven’t had much success against playoff qualifiers either, going 1-5 (excluding their week 18 win over a Chiefs team that was resting their starters), but they don’t need to win to cover this high spread and only one of their matchups against a playoff qualifier resulted in a loss by more than nine points. I wouldn’t make a big bet on the Broncos, but I expect this game to be relatively close.

Buffalo Bills 25 Denver Broncos 20

Pick against the spread: Denver +9

Confidence: Medium

Denver Broncos at Cincinnati Bengals: 2024 Week 17 NFL Pick

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Denver Broncos (9-6) at Cincinnati Bengals (7-8)

This is a matchup of two teams that tend to get better as the year goes on after a slow start. Broncos coach Sean Payton consistently did that in his previous job with the New Orleans Saints and has continued that in his first two seasons with the Broncos. In total as a head coach, Payton is 11-22-1 ATS in the first two weeks of the season and 146-105–5 ATS after that. This season, the Broncos lost their first two games of the season, but have gone 9-4 (10-3 ATS) since then. Last season, it took them a little longer in Sean Payton’s first season in Denver, as they started 1-5 (0-5-1 ATS), before going 7-4 (6-5 ATS) the rest of the way. 

Meanwhile, the Bengals are 3-6-1 ATS and 1-9 straight up in the first two weeks of the season in the Zac Taylor/Joe Burrow era and 49-27-2 ATS and 46-31 straight up after those first two weeks. This season, they lost their first three games of the season, but are 7-5 straight up and 8-4 ATS since then. Those two trends should cancel out and, with that in mind, the Bengals should be the better pick, as 3-point home favorites. 

The Broncos have a two game lead on them in the standings, but the Bengals have a first down rate differential of +1.05% and a yards per play differential of +0.27, as opposed to -0.11% and +0.19 for the Broncos. The Bengals also have a 3-point edge in my roster rankings, in part due to their offense now being fully healthy, with left tackle Orlando Brown notably set to return this week after missing six of the Bengals’ last seven games. My calculated line has the Bengals favored by 4.5 in this game, so we’re getting decent line value with them, but not quite enough for them to be worth betting.

Cincinnati Bengals 27 Denver Broncos 22

Pick against the spread: Cincinnati -3

Confidence: Low

Denver Broncos at Los Angeles Chargers: 2024 Week 16 NFL Pick

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Denver Broncos (9-5) at Los Angeles Chargers (8-6)

The Broncos got off to a slow start this season, losing their first two games of the season, games in which they lost the first down rate battle by a combined 6.98% and the yards per play battle by a combined 0.50. However, since then, they have won 9 of 12 games, while going 10-2 ATS. This is nothing new for Sean Payton coached teams, as Payton is 146-104-5 ATS in week 3 or later in his career, as opposed to 11-22-1 in weeks 1 and 2. That’s mostly from his time in New Orleans, but, in addition to this season, a similar thing happened last season in Payton’s first season in Denver, although it took a little bit longer, as they started 1-5 (0-5-1 ATS), before going 7-4 (6-5 ATS) the rest of the way.

With the Broncos’ improvement since early in the season, they have moved up to -0.02% in first down rate differential and +0.24 in yards per play differential on the season, despite how terribly they played in the first two weeks of the season. That’s actually slightly above their opponents this week, the Los Angeles Chargers, who are at a -0.28% first down rate differential and a -0.12 yards per play differential. When you add in that the Chargers lack a significant homefield advantage in Los Angeles, where they frequently play in front of crowds that favor the road team, (26-34-3 ATS at home in Los Angeles since their first season in 2017), we get a little bit of line value with the Broncos at +2.5 when you look at it purely from a statistical standpoint.

However, my roster rankings have the Chargers with a 5-point edge, almost exclusively due to the Chargers massive advantage at the quarterback position with Justin Herbert (4th among quarterbacks on PFF) over Broncos’ quarterback Bo Nix (24th among quarterbacks on PFF). Aside from the quarterback position, these two teams are pretty even, but the Chargers’ advantage at the game’s most important position can’t be ignored. The Chargers actually are one of the two teams to cover against the Broncos since week 2, doing so in a 7-point victory as 3-point favorites in week 6, in large part to Herbert (75.8 QBR) significantly outplaying Nix (53.4 QBR).

My calculated line when we look at roster rankings gives the Chargers a bigger advantage than my calculated line when we look at it from a statistical standpoint and my overall calculated line when taking everything into account is Chargers -3, so I am taking the Chargers for pick ‘em purposes, but there is too much conflicting analysis for me to confidently bet the Chargers, especially at home against a coach in Sean Payton who covers at a high rate outside of the first two weeks of the season.

Los Angeles Chargers 20 Denver Broncos 17

Pick against the spread: LA Chargers -2.5

Confidence: Low

Denver Broncos at New Orleans Saints: 2024 Week 7 NFL Pick

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Denver Broncos (3-3) at New Orleans Saints (2-4)

This game is a tough call. The Saints have been the slightly better team this season, possessing the edge in first down rate differential. The Broncos have the better defense, allowing a 27.50% first down rate and 4.44 yards per play, as opposed to 30.85% and 6.07 for the Saints, but the Saints have a better offense, with a 31.35% first down rate and 5.33 yards per play, as opposed to 25.28% and 4.69 for the Broncos, and offensive production tends to be much more predictive and consistent week-to-week. In my efficiency metric that weighs offensive performance higher than defensive performance, the Saints have a significant edge at -0.53 to -4.25.

However, that’s mostly because the Saints played so well in the first two games of the season, when they won both games by a combined 62 points, and they have declined significantly since then, losing their last four games, in large part due to injuries, particularly on the offensive side of the ball. In total, the Saints are missing starting quarterback Derek Carr, a trio of starting offensive linemen in Ryan Ramczyk, Erik McCoy, and Cesar Ruiz, their two best wide receivers Chris Olave and Rashid Shaheed, the versatile Taysom Hill, starting linebacker Pete Warner, and starting safety Will Harris. 

The Broncos are missing top cornerback Patrick Surtain, starting linebacker Alex Singleton, and starting wide receiver Josh Reynolds, while starting right tackle Mike McGlinchey and starting edge defender Baron Browning are questionable, but overall they are the much healthier team and, overall, possess a five point edge in my roster rankings. Given that, we are getting a little bit of line value with the Broncos as 2.5-point road favorites, but the Saints are also in a better spot, as home underdogs cover the spread at a 56.7% rate after losing by 14 or more as home underdogs the previous week. I am taking the Saints for pick ‘em purposes, but this is one of my lowest confidence picks of the week.

Update: This line has shifted to 3, probably because McGlinchey and Browning are playing, but I already assumed they would, so that doesn’t change my projection at all. I like +3 a lot more than +2.5, so I am boosting this to a low confidence pick.

Denver Broncos 17 New Orleans Saints 16

Pick against the spread: New Orleans +3

Confidence: Low