Quarterback
The Broncos thought they had solved their long-standing quarterback problem last off-season when they acquired Russell Wilson. With no playoff appearances since Peyton Manning’s final season in 2015 and with none of the 11 starting quarterbacks the Broncos tried in the six seasons after Manning’s retirement showing much promise, the Broncos got aggressive and traded away a pair of first and second round picks to the Seahawks, along with a trio of mid-level players, in exchange for the Seahawks’ starting quarterback of the past decade (158 of a possible 161 starts), who also received a 5-year, 242.5 million dollar extension with 124 million fully guaranteed upon arrival in Denver.
Wilson had completed 65.0% of his passes for an average of 7.78 YPA, 308 touchdowns, and 98 interceptions over that 10-year stretch in Seattle with 5.54 YPC and 23 touchdowns on 846 carries, while finishing above 80 on PFF seven times and above 90 three times, so it seemed like the Broncos were getting a safe bet, even with Wilson heading into his mid 30s. However, Wilson struggled mightily in his first season in Denver, completing just 60.5% of his passes for an average of 7.30 YPA, 16 touchdowns, and 11 interceptions, with 277 yards and 3 touchdowns on 55 carries (5.04 YPC) on the ground, while receiving just a 66.2 grade from PFF.
Wilson wasn’t the Broncos only problem last season and their supporting cast was a shell of what it was supposed to be, leading the league in adjusted games lost to injury, but the Broncos finished just 5-12 in Wilson’s first season in Denver, their lowest winning percentage since 2010, a massive disappointment for a team that made an aggressive win now move and that was seen by some as Super Bowl contenders entering the season. Their defense actually wasn’t bad, ranking 10th in DVOA, so their Wilson and offense, which ranked 29th in DVOA, deserves the vast majority of the blame.
Wilson was particularly bad in the pocket, taking numerous unnecessary sacks, which led to the Broncos allowing 63 sacks on the season, most in the NFL, which was probably the biggest barrier to this being an effective offense last season. Some of the blame for the high sack total should fall on the offensive line, which I’ll get into later, but Wilson had the 4th highest rate of taking sacks while under pressure, ranked 7th in time to attempt, and was credited as being responsible for 11 of the sacks he took, 5th most in the NFL, so he definitely deserves much of the blame as well.
Coming into this off-season, reviving Wilson’s career was obviously the top priority, with Wilson’s contract tying him to the Broncos through at least 2025, paying him 104 million over the next three seasons before they can realistically move on from him. The Broncos hired head coach Sean Payton, surrendering a first round pick to the Saints for him, which is a steep price, but Payton figures to be a big upgrade on last year’s head coach Nathaniel Hackett, which can only help Wilson’s chances of bouncing back. The Broncos also made a couple key free agent signings and will almost definitely be healthier this season, so they should be better around Wilson than a year ago as well.
However, Wilson is now going into his age 35 season and, even if he bounces back a little bit, it’s very possible his best days are behind him. His athleticism in particular seems to have dropped off over the past two seasons, leading to the two lowest rushing totals of his career. Wilson was never that much of a rushing quarterback, but his mobility has always been a big part of his game as he likes to hold the ball, extend plays, and makes throws on the run.
Now in his mid-30s, it makes sense he wouldn’t be able to do that as effectively anymore and, as a result, his whole game suffers significantly. Even in his final season in Seattle, Wilson’s 73.9 PFF grade was his 2nd lowest of his tenure there, perhaps the first sign of his decline. Wilson probably won’t be quite as bad in 2023 as he was a year ago, but I wouldn’t expect him to return to his Seattle level of play either, or even close to it. With Wilson being a question mark, the backup quarterback spot is important for the Broncos and they treated it as such, giving a 2-year, 10 million dollar deal to ex-Raider Jarrett Stidham, which makes him one of the better paid backup quarterbacks in the league.
Stidham was a 4th round pick in 2019 and had never made a start before making a couple down the stretch last season for a Raiders team that essentially had nothing to play for, but he wasn’t bad in those two starts, completing 64.3% of his passes for 8.34 YPA, 4 touchdowns, and 3 interceptions and could remain a solid backup going forward. He’s inexperienced and far from a proven option, but if Wilson continues to really struggle it’s possible the Broncos might give him a chance. With Wilson’s best days likely behind him, this isn’t a bad quarterback room, but it probably doesn’t have a huge upside.
Grade: B-
Offensive Line
As I mentioned, injuries were a big part of the reason why the Broncos struggled last season and their biggest injury loss on offense was probably the absence of talented left tackle Garret Bolles, whose season was ended by a broken leg after 325 snaps in five games. Bolles was a first round pick by the Broncos in 2017 and has been starting at left tackle since his rookie year, making 82 starts total and receiving a PFF grade of 70 or higher in all six seasons. In his absence, Cameron Fleming (976 snaps), Calvin Anderson (439 snaps), and Billy Turner (483 snaps) were their primary tackles and they weren’t bad, but none were on the same level as Bolles.
Bolles will be in his age 31 season this season and, between that and the injury, he might not be at his best this year, but he’ll still be a welcome re-addition for this team and he should still remain at least an above average starter, barring an unexpected massive drop off. He’ll start opposite free agent acquisition Mike McGlinchey, who they gave a 5-year, 87.5 million dollar deal to come over from the 49ers as a free agent.
The 9th overall pick in the 2018 NFL Draft, McGlinchey has been an above average starter when healthy in his career, finishing above 70 on PFF in all three seasons in which he’s played every game and, even in his other two seasons, in which he’s missed 13 games total, he’s still finished with grades in the 60s on PFF. The Broncos might have overpaid a little bit, but he should be at least a solid starter for them and will be a welcome addition to an offensive line that needed help.
McGlinchey’s arrival will push Cameron Fleming into the swing tackle role. Fleming started 15 games last season, first at right tackle and then at left tackle after Bolles got hurt, and he was the best of the Broncos’ offensive tackles aside from Bolles, but he’s mostly been a backup in his career, surpassing 7 starts in just twice of 9 seasons in the league, and now heads into his age 31 season. Fleming has actually surpassed 70 on PFF four times in his career, making 30 total starts across those four seasons, but he’s been very inconsistent, with four seasons under 60 (29 starts) as well, so he’s best as a reserve, though he is an above average one and one who can probably hold up as the starter for a stretch if needed.
The Broncos also gave a big contract to ex-Ravens guard Ben Powers, signing him for 51.5 million over 4 years (9th highest among guards in average annual salary) to start at left guard in place of free agent departure Dalton Risner, who had a 61.1 PFF grade in 15 starts last season. Powers figures to be an upgrade, coming off seasons of 66.3 and 62.9 on PFF in 12 starts and 17 starts respectively over the past two seasons, but the 2019 4th round pick has never done anything to prove he’s worth this kind of money and, already in his age 27 season, he probably doesn’t have any further untapped potential. He should be a solid starter and at least a slight upgrade on Risner, but he’s not a top level guard.
With Bolles out last season, the Broncos’ best offensive lineman was right guard Quinn Meinerz, who was a bright spot on this offense, ranking 5th among guards on PFF with a 77.7 grade in 13 starts in a breakout second season for the 2021 third round pick, after posting a decent 67.4 grade on 623 snaps as a rookie. He is still a one-year wonder in terms of playing at the level he played at last season, but, only in his age 25 season, he has a good chance to develop into one of the consistently best guards in the league long-term and he has a strong chance to have another above average season in 2023.
On the other hand, center Lloyd Cushenberry was the Broncos’ worst starting offensive lineman last season, with a 56.2 PFF grade. He only made 8 starts due to injury, but he wasn’t really missed and, in fact, his replacement Graham Glasgow was actually slightly less mediocre with a 59.3 PFF grade. A 3rd round pick in 2020, Cushenberry was better in 2021, with a 64.2 PFF grade in 16 starts, but that’s not that impressive and he was also horrendous as a rookie in 2020 with a 40.5 PFF grade in 16 starts.
Glasgow is gone and the Broncos’ depth on the interior is very suspect, so the Broncos don’t have a choice but to start Cushenberry again, but he could easily continue struggling. The additions of McGlinchey and Powers and the return of Garret Bolles from injury make this offensive line better, even if McGlinchey and Powers were likely overpays who are probably just solid starters rather than real game changers. With Quinn Meinerz returning, the Broncos’ could have above average play at every position except center, so this could be an above average offensive line overall.
Grade: B+
Receiving Corps
The Broncos had a deep receiving corps going into last season, but injuries hit this group as well. Expected starting wide receiver Tim Patrick went down for the season before the year even started and his expected replacement KJ Hamler played just 224 snaps in 7 games due to injuries of his own. They still had Jerry Jeudy and Courtland Sutton as their top-2 receivers, but the latter continued not being the same since a 2020 ACL tear (69.3 PFF grade, 1.55 yards per route run) and, while the former had a good season with a 78.4 PFF grade and 2.18 yards per route run, it wasn’t enough to carry this receiving corps on his own.
Meanwhile, expected top tight end Albert Okwuegbunam played just 190 snaps in 8 games, falling down the depth chart even before getting hurt, and 3rd round rookie Greg Dulcich, who was their primary tight end for most of the season, also missed 7 games with injury, leaving blocking specialists Eric Saubert (395 total snaps) and Eric Tomlinson (407 total snaps) to play outsized roles, particularly in the passing game, where they averaged just 0.79 yards per route run between the two of them.
Things should be better this season. Tim Patrick returns and the Broncos added Oklahoma’s Marvin Mims in the 2nd round of the draft as extra insurance. Courtland Sutton has bounce back potential another year removed from his injury, while Jerry Jeudy still remains a former 2020 first round pick who is only in his age 24 season, so he could have further upside. Meanwhile, tight ends Albert Okwuegbunam and Greg Dulcich should both be healthier than a year ago and ex-Saints tight end Adam Trautman was acquired in a trade for a late round pick as extra competition at the position.
Jeudy will likely remain the leader of this group and could easily take another step forward in his 4th season in the league, especially if he can get a little bit better quarterback play. Prior to his impressive yards per route run average last season, Jeudy averaged 1.66 yards per route run as a rookie and 1.85 yards per route run in his second season, so he’s been pretty good since entering the league and has taken a little bit of a step forward in each season in the league. Durability has been a bit of a problem for him in the past two seasons, with nine games missed total, and he’s never played more than 806 snaps in a season with an average of 644 snaps played per season, but if he can stay healthy and get even decent quarterback play, he has a huge upside, given how young he still is and how much talent he’s shown already.
Sutton is only going into his age 28 season and could have some bounce back potential, but his career best year in 2019 prior to his injury is now 4 years ago and that remains the only above average season of his career. He had a 72/1112/6 slash line that season with an average of 2.08 yards per route run, but excluding his 2020 season which was almost completely lost to injury, his 2nd best yards per route run average in his 5-year career was last season, as he averaged 1.32 yards per route run as a 2nd round rookie in 2018 and 1.43 yards per route run in his first year back from the injury in 2021. He might be a little bit better in 2023 than he was in 2022, especially if he gets better quarterback play, but I wouldn’t expect him to suddenly find his 2019 form again.
Tim Patrick should remain the #3 receiver in his return from injury, although the addition of Mims in the second round of the draft adds some confusion to the situation. Prior to his injury, Patrick had an average of 1.59 yards per route run and slash lines of 51/742/6 and 53/734/5 respectively in his previous two seasons and, while he’s now going into his age 30 season, he’s also a full year removed from his injury, so he has a good chance to bounce back and play at least close to the level he was playing at before his injury.
That would leave Mims in a reserve role as the #4 receiver, barring injuries ahead of him on the depth chart. The Broncos also still have KJ Hamler, whose career has been injury riddled thus far, missing 27 out of a possible 50 games missed, with just 10 games played in the past two seasons, while averaging just 1.15 yards per route run in his career in limited action. However, he was a 2nd round pick in 2020 and he’s only in his age 24 season, so he could still have some untapped upside if he can stay healthy.
At tight end, Greg Dulcich is likely to remain the starter, after showing promise as a receiver as a 3rd round rookie in 2022, averaging 1.30 yards per route run, a decent amount for a tight end, although he did struggle mightily as a blocker. He has the upside to take a step forward in year two and the Broncos should get a healthier season out of him. Albert Okwuegbunam came into last season with a lot of promise, after the 2020 4th round pick averaged 2.03 yards per route run in limited action in his first two seasons in the league, but he lost his starting job last season even before getting hurt and he struggled with a 55.4 PFF grade and a 0.69 yards per route run average on the year.
Okwuegbunam should be healthier this year and he’s only in his age 25 season, but the addition of Adam Trautman, who was with Sean Payton in New Orleans, suggests the new coaching staff isn’t that high on him and, at the very least, I would expect him to be behind Dulcich for passing down snaps and targets. Trautman was primarily a blocking tight end in his three seasons in New Orleans, but the 2020 3rd round pick has also averaged 1.20 yards per route run in his career, including 1.49 last season, so he’s a decent all-around tight end who has a good chance to earn a significant role as the #2 tight end ahead of Okwuegbunam, a role he would likely fare well in. The Broncos also added veteran blocking specialist Chris Manhertz, who has just 24 career catches in 101 games and a career average of 0.55 yards per route run, but who has finished above 60 on PFF in run blocking grade in five straight seasons. Overall, this should be a noticeably improved receiving corps compared to a year ago.
Grade: B+
Running Backs
The Broncos also lost their featured running back Javonte Williams for the season after a torn ACL in week 4 last season. In his absence, backup running back Melvin Gordon struggled mightily, averaging 3.53 YPC on 90 carries, before getting released and replaced with mid-season free agent Latavius Murray, who ended up leading the team with 160 carries, which he took for a decent 4.39 YPC average and 5 touchdowns. Murray is no longer with the team, but the Broncos are expecting to get Javonte Williams back relatively early in the season, if not week 1 and they also added free agent Samaje Perine on a 2-year, 7.5 million dollar deal, not an insignificant amount of money for a running back, especially a backup running back.
Prior to his injury, Williams came into last season with a lot of upside. A 2nd round pick, Williams rushed for 903 yards and 4 touchdowns on 203 carries (4.45 YPC) as a rookie, while adding a 1.21 yards per route run average, and he was expected to play a bigger role in year two, which he was on his way to before injury, with 63 touches in about three and a half games. The Broncos may limit his usage in his first year back from injury though and Perine is a more than capable backup that the Broncos spent decent money on, so he could take a big chunk of the touches, especially if Williams isn’t playing his best upon his return.
Perine hasn’t surpassed 100 carries in a season since his rookie year in Washington in 2017, when the 4th round pick averaged just 3.45 YPC, leading to him subsequently falling out of the rotation, bouncing around several teams, and totaling just 13 carries in a 2-year span, before landing with the Bengals as a backup in 2020, with whom he’s averaged 4.42 YPC on 213 carries over the past three seasons, making three starts when needed in place of an injured Joe Mixon. With Williams’ health being questionable, Perine could see more carries this season than he did in any of his seasons with the Bengals and he’s also a decent pass catcher (1.11 career yards per route run), who figures to be involved in that aspect of the game as well. He’s probably much more suited to a significant role now than he was as a rookie, so I would expect him to at least be decent.
Aside from adding Perine, the Broncos don’t seem too worried about Williams missing time, as the rest of this running back group is pretty thin, which would leave them without a capable #2 back behind Perine if Williams wasn’t ready for the start of the year. Aside from Williams and Perine, the other three running backs on this roster are 2022 6th round pick Tyler Badie (just two touches as a rookie), 2020 undrafted free agent Tony Jones (77 career touches), and undrafted rookie Jaleel McLaughlin, none of whom seem to have any real potential. Williams’ return boosts this backfield and Perine is a solid backup as well, but Williams’ health is a question mark and their depth behind Perine is very suspect.
Grade: B
Edge Defenders
As I mentioned, the Broncos were actually pretty solid on the defensive side of the ball last season, ranking 10th in defensive DVOA, which is impressive because, while the Broncos’ didn’t quite have as many injuries on defense as they did on offense, they still had a lot of defensive injuries, ranking 4th in adjusted games lost to injury on defense, while ranking 2nd on offense. One of their biggest injury losses was edge defender Randy Gregory, who was a big free agent signing last off-season on a 5-year, 70 million dollar deal and who made a pretty big impact in his limited playing time, with a 76.9 PFF grade and a 17.5% pressure rate, though injuries limited him to just 187 total snaps in six games.
Not being available has been a theme for Gregory in his career, as the former 2nd round pick of the Cowboys has played in just 44 of a possible 130 games in his eight seasons in the league, maxing out at 457 snaps played in a season, due to injuries and suspensions. Gregory’s off-the-field problems seem to be behind him and he’s a highly talented pass rusher with a 13.2% pressure rate for his career, including 14.6% over the past three seasons, receiving a pass rush grade from PFF of 75 or higher in all three of those seasons.
However, Gregory is now going into his age 31 season, he’s not nearly as good against the run as he is as a pass rusher, which primarily limits him to sub package snaps, and it’s unclear if he can hold up over a full season, even as a situational pass rusher who doesn’t play the snap count that an every down player would. The Broncos should be able to expect more snaps out of him this season than last season and he has a high upside, but he comes with a lot of question marks and downside.
The Broncos also got good play out of Bradley Chubb for a stretch last season, with Chubb posting a 74.9 grade on PFF on 408 snaps in 8 games, while totaling 5.5 sacks, 5 hits, and a 11.7% pressure rate, but he was sent to the Dolphins at the trade deadline for the first round pick the Broncos eventually gave up to acquire Sean Payton. With Chubb traded and Gregory hurt, the Broncos really lacked at the edge defender position down the stretch last season. Baron Browning (569 snaps) was the best of the rest as a pass rusher, with 5 sacks, 6 hits, and a 13.4% pressure rate, but he struggled mightily against the run, leading to him finishing with just a 55.3 PFF grade overall in the first season of his career at the edge defender position, after the 2021 3rd round pick spent his rookie season at off ball linebacker.
Second round rookie Nik Bonnito (357 snaps) also struggled against the run and didn’t have nearly as much success as Browning as a pass rusher, with a middling 10.1% pressure rate, leading to a 52.4 overall PFF grade, while 2021 7th round pick Jonathon Cooper (443 snaps) was the opposite, only getting a 9.5% pressure rate but performing pretty well against the run (66.7 PFF grade), similar to his rookie season when he played 457 snaps, had just a 8.7% pressure rate, but received a 74.8 PFF grade for his run defense. All three of Browning, Bonnito, and Cooper return for the 2023 season and they are all relatively young still and have the upside to be better this season, but that’s not a guarantee.
The Broncos also added veteran Frank Clark on a 1-year, 5.45 million dollar deal and he’ll have a role as well, probably a pretty significant one, given his contract and how questionable the rest of this group is, whether due to injury or inexperience. Clark was a 2nd round pick by the Seahawks in 2015 and was very effective in his final three seasons in Seattle from 2016-2018, totaling 33 sacks, 28 hits, and a 12.7% pressure rate in 47 games, leading to the Chiefs trading a 1st and 2nd round pick to acquire him and give him a 5-year, 104 million dollar contract, after the Seahawks had franchise tagged him earlier in the off-season.
Clark spent four seasons in Kansas City, but didn’t consistently match the level of effectiveness he showed in Seattle, totaling 23.5 sacks, 41 hits, and a 10.0% pressure rate in 58 games. He stayed on the team for four seasons despite his big salary because of some post-season heroics, but, eventually the Chiefs gave up on him and moved on from the final year and 21 million of his contract this off-season.
Clark now heads into his age 30 season, with four straight seasons on PFF in the 50s or 60, so he’s more of a snap eater than an impact player at this point on his career, but he figures to have at least a rotational role and he should be at least decent in that role, unless he declines significantly on the wrong side of 30. This isn’t a great edge defender group and there is a lot of downside here, but there is also a lot of upside if the young players can take the next step and if Randy Gregory can stay healthy for most of the season and avoid declining now that he’s on the other side of 30.
Grade: B-
Interior Defenders
Dre’Mont Jones was the Broncos’ top interior pass rusher a year ago, totaling 6.5 sacks, 5 hits, and a 10.0% pressure rate, and he left this off-season to sign a 3-year, 51.53 million dollar deal with the Seahawks, but he struggled mightily against the run, with a 41.8 PFF grade in run defense, and the Broncos signed ex-Cardinal Zach Allen to a 3-year, 45.75 million dollar deal in free agency to replace Jones, which could easily prove to be an upgrade.
In total, Allen had 5.5 sacks, 15 hits, and a 8.2% pressure rate last season, but what set his 2022 performance apart from Jones’ is that he held up against the run as well, with a 67.4 run defense grade, leading to Allen receiving a 72.7 overall grade from PFF. The concern with Allen is that he’s a one-year wonder, as the 2019 3rd round pick was not nearly as good in his first two seasons as a starter in 2020 and 2021, when he finished with 54.9 and 58.7 grades from PFF on snap counts of 505 and 684 respectively.
Allen especially struggled against the run in those two seasons, but his run defense took a big step forward in his 4th season in the league in 2022 and his pass rush improved from his first two seasons in the league as well, after totaling 6 sacks, 14 hits, and a 6.4% pressure rate in those two seasons combined. Allen could prove to be a one-year wonder, but he was a relatively high draft pick and he’s still relatively young, only entering his age 26 season in 2023, so there’s a higher than average chance that he’s permanently turned a corner and will remain an above average every down player. Even if he regresses a little bit, he should still be a more well-rounded option than the player he’s replacing Dre’Mont Jones.
The Broncos also lost DeShawn Williams this off-season, but he received just a 55.4 grade from PFF on 598 snaps, so he won’t really be missed that much. To replace him, the Broncos will likely give more playing time to second year players Matt Henningsen, who played 230 snaps as a 6th round rookie last season, and Eyioma Uwazurike, who played 165 snaps as a 4th round rookie last season. Both were above average run defenders in their limited action and can at least see base package snaps, but they combined for just a 3.0% pressure rate and, while they could take a step forward in year two, they also might not be as effective against the run in a larger role.
The Broncos also bring back veteran Mike Purcell, who is also much more of a base package player, with a 3.5% career pressure rate and four straight seasons above 65 on PFF against the run. He’s also going into his age 32 season and could see his run defense decline over the next couple seasons and, even in the past four seasons, he’s only averaged 31.1 snaps per game in 49 games (381 snaps per season), so he’s not really a candidate for a larger role and, in fact, it wouldn’t be a surprise at all to see his snap count go down from last year’s career high of 529, most in ten seasons in the league.
DJ Jones will likely be the primary sub package rusher inside opposite Zach Allen, a role he fared pretty well in last season next to Dre’Mont Jones, with a 8.6% pressure rate. Jones’ run defense has been pretty inconsistent in his career, but he’s finished above 60 in pass rush grade on PFF in four straight seasons, with a total pressure rate of 6.9% over those four seasons, and, only in his age 28 season, he could continue being a reliable sub package pass rusher. Outside of Zach Allen, the Broncos don’t have any other interior defenders who can both hold up against the run and rush the passer consistently and Allen is a one-year wonder, but the Broncos do have some interesting rotational pieces that fit together decently and Allen has the upside to remain an above average every down player going forward, so this isn’t a bad group.
Grade: B-
Linebackers
The Broncos’ linebacking corps were one of the Broncos’ top positions of strengths last season. Every down linebackers Alex Singleton (51.4 snaps per game) and Josey Jewell (63.5 snaps per game) finished with PFF grades of 79.1 and 71.7 respectively and, while they missed six games with injury between the two of them, top reserve Jonas Griffth was decent on 336 snaps. This season, all three of the aforementioned players return and the Broncos added even further to their depth by selecting Arkansas’ Drew Sanders in the 3rd round of the draft.
Unfortunately, one big area for concern is that Singleton might not be nearly as good this season, not only going into his age 30 season, but also being a complete one-year wonder, receiving PFF grades of 58.9 and 52.4 in his first two seasons as a starter in 2020 and 2021 respectively, playing the run decently, but struggling mightily in coverage. He was better in both aspects in 2022, but it’s unclear if he’ll be able to repeat that, especially now that he is getting up there in age.
Josey Jewell has a much better chance to repeat last season’s performance, going into his age 29 season, with at least one other above average season as an every down player, playing 1,011 snaps and finishing with a 68.1 PFF grade in 2020, with a lost season due to injury in 2021 in between. He’s not the most proven player, but, if he stays healthy again, I would expect him to remain at least a solid every down player, one who is equally effective in coverage and against the run.
Griffith should also remain a solid reserve, as the 2020 undrafted free agent also held up pretty well on 255 snaps in the first defensive action of his career in 2021 too. Sanders might have more upside long-term, which is probably why the Broncos drafted him, but Griffith could remain the primary backup over him as a rookie. Sanders is also versatile enough to line up outside in certain situations, but the Broncos are deep enough at the edge defender position that it would be tough for him to earn a consistent role there as well. This is a solid position group and a deep one at that, but Singleton is a candidate for a serious regression.
Grade: B+
Secondary
Another key injury on this defense last season was the loss of starting cornerback Ronald Darby, after he posted a 71.1 PFF grade in 280 snaps in five games. Darby’s absence was somewhat mitigated though, by the play of 4th round rookie Damarri Mathis, who made 11 starts and finished with a 65.6 PFF grade. The Broncos added another cornerback in the 3rd round of this year’s draft, taking Iowa’s Riley Moss, but Mathis is probably the favorite to keep the starting job with Darby now no longer on the team. Mathis starting would then leave Moss as a reserve and a long-term developmental project.
Moss could end up being a long-term replacement for slot cornerback K’Waun Williams, who is going into his age 32 season. Williams still received a 67.2 grade from PFF last season on 596 snaps, finishing above 65 on PFF like he has in all 8 healthy seasons in the league (he missed all of 2016), but he still missed 3 games with injury in 2022, bringing his total games missed up to 41 in nine seasons in the league, never once playing more than 15 games, and he hasn’t posted a PFF grade over 70 since 2019, after finishing above 70 in four of his first five healthy seasons in the league. He’s clearly slowing down, even if he’s still a middling player for now. He could remain a solid player in 2023, but his best days are probably behind him, he has durability problems, and it wouldn’t be a surprise at all if he declined even further.
If Moss ends up on the slot long-term and Mathis develops into a solid starter outside long-term, that would give the Broncos a trio of talented young cornerbacks, led by top cornerback Patrick Surtain, who has already developed into one of the best players in the league at his position in just two seasons in the league. The 9th overall pick in the 2021 NFL Draft by the Broncos, Surtain wasn’t spectacular as a rookie, with a 66.1 PFF grade overall on 900 snaps, but he had a 71.4 PFF grade from week 8 on and continued improving into his second season in the league, finishing as PFF’s 2nd ranked cornerback overall with a 86.8 PFF grade.
Surtain is still relatively inexperienced and only has one elite season under his belt, but he’s also only going into his age 23 season and it’s clear that his long-term ceiling is one of the consistently top few cornerbacks in the league, if not the top few defensive players in the league. It’s possible he could regress a little bit in 2023 after such a dominant 2022 campaign, but he should remain one of the better cornerbacks in the league at the very least.
Top safety Justin Simmons also missed 5 games with injury last season, recording a 70.7 PFF grade on 808 snaps in 12 games when he was healthy. That’s about in line with how he’s played throughout most of his career, as the 2016 3rd round pick developed into one of the better safeties in the league earlier in his career and has stayed one of them ever since, finishing above 70 on PFF in five of the past six seasons, dating back to his second season in the league in 2017. There’s some mild concern with Simmons now going into his age 30 season and coming off of his lowest graded season on PFF since 2018, but even if his best days are behind him, I like his chances of remaining at least an above average safety in 2023 and, even at less than his best, Simmons is obviously still a very capable player.
Fellow starting safety Kareem Jackson’s age is an even bigger concern, as he now heads into his age 35 season, but he did remain a decent starter last season with a 64.5 PFF grade. However, that’s a far cry from his prime, when he finished above 70 five times in seven seasons from 2014-2020, including four seasons over 80, Jackson’s abilities could fall off a cliff at any point at this stage of his career, and he had a pretty bad year in 2021, when he had a 52.0 PFF grade, before last year’s middling year. It wouldn’t be a surprise at all if Jackson was a liability this season and his upside is probably only remaining a capable starter. Fortunately, the Broncos seemingly have a ready replacement in 2021 5th round pick Caden Sterns, who could easily take Jackson’s job at some point this season if he struggles.
Sterns has only made five career starts in two seasons in the league and only received a 59.2 PFF grade on 311 snaps as a rookie, but that improved significantly to 76.7 on 274 snaps in year two, filling in very well as an injury replacement for Justin Simmons. He probably wouldn’t be quite that good as a full season starter and he’s still very unproven, but it wouldn’t be a surprise to see him at least be an upgrade over Jackson if he took his spot in the starting lineup. This is a pretty good secondary, led by Patrick Surtain and Justin Simmons, with promising young depth (Moss and Sterns) behind aging veteran starters (Williams and Jackson) and no clear weaknesses and good depth as a result.
Grade: A-
Conclusion
The Broncos were solid defensively last season (10th in DVOA), despite some injuries, and they look likely to be at least average on that side of the ball again, if not above average, so if their offense (29th in DVOA) can improve significantly and be at least decent, this team could be pretty competitive. Nine of their 12 losses last season came by one score, as opposed to four wins by one score, and if their offense is even somewhat better in 2023, at least a few of those close games should go the other way. I think there’s a good chance that happens, even if quarterback Russell Wilson is past his prime.
They should have better play calling with Sean Payton coming in. Wilson should bounce back at least somewhat. They should be much healthier, after being the 2nd most banged up offense in the league last season, with most notably with left tackle Garret Bolles, starting wide receiver Tim Patrick, and starting running back Javonte Williams missing all or most of the season. They also added a pair of starters in free agency on big contracts, left guard Ben Powers and right tackle Mike McGlinchey, which gives them an infusion of talent, albeit at a steep price.
All in all, I wouldn’t expect the Broncos to be a playoff team in the loaded AFC, but they have a good chance to be a lot more competitive than a year ago and they weren’t as far from being a .500 team as their record suggested last season, so I would expect that they will at least be in the mix for a wild card spot, even if they ultimately fall short. I will have a final prediction at the end of the off-season when all previews are completed.
Prediction: 6-11, 3rd in AFC West
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