Browns

Cleveland Browns at New England Patriots: 2021 Week 10 NFL Pick

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Cleveland Browns (5-4) at New England Patriots (5-4)

I wish these two teams weren’t playing each other this week, because both are underrated. Both have records of just 5-4, but could easily have several more wins each. Of the Browns’ four losses, three came by one score, including a pair where they won the first down rate and yards per play battle, but lost the turnover battle, and their only multi-score loss came against the Cardinals in a game in which Baker Mayfield got hurt. Mayfield is not the only Browns player to miss time or be limited with injury and they still are missing some key personnel, but, despite that, the Browns rank 9th, 5th, and 5th in schedule adjusted offensive, defensive, and special teams efficiency respectively, as they have won the first down rate battle convincingly in all five of their wins, including a trio of double digit victories.

The Patriots, meanwhile, have faced an easy schedule overall, but three of their four losses have come by 1 point, 2 points, and in overtime, including a pair of losses to the Cowboys and Buccaneers, who are among the best teams in the league. Meanwhile, three of their five wins have come by more than one score, with the exceptions being a game in which they were without four of their five starters on the offensive line against the Texans and a game in which the Chargers, a 5-3 team, needed a late touchdown in garbage time to cut the final margin of victory to one score. The Patriots aren’t fully healthy either, but they are in much better shape on the offensive line now and are clearly better than their 5-4 record.

However, I do feel that, while the Patriots’ are more commonly known to be better than their record, it’s not as well known that the Browns are better than their record and, as a result, they are a more underrated team. This line, favoring the Patriots by 2.5 points at home, suggests these two teams are about even, but I have the Browns a couple points better in my roster rankings and I have this line calculated at even, giving us some line value with the Browns +2.5. 

On top of that, the Patriots are in a bad spot, having to turn around and play another game in four days in Thursday Night Football. Favorites cover at just a 41.6% rate all-time before a short week when their opponent is not going into a short week and, while the Patriots are only small favorites this week and do only face the Falcons, that game could still serve as a distraction. I would need a full field goal to bet the Browns against the spread, but they are the pick for pick ‘em purposes even at +2.5 and they are worth a bet on the money line, as they should be considered no worse than 50/50 to win this game.

Cleveland Browns 24 New England Patriots 23 Upset Pick +115

Pick against the spread: Cleveland +2.5

Confidence: Low

Cleveland Browns at Cincinnati Bengals: 2021 Week 9 NFL Pick

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Cleveland Browns (4-4) at Cincinnati Bengals (5-3)

The Browns lost at home to the Steelers last week, but it was a game they likely would have won if not for a red zone fumble, as they won the first down rate battle, but lost by 5-points in a game in which they were -1 in turnovers. The turnover margin also likely cost them their week 1 game against the Chiefs, losing the turnover battle by 2 in a 4-point loss. The Browns also have another one score loss to a quality team, the Chargers, while their only mutli-score loss was the Cardinals, who were the league’s last unbeaten team. 

Overall, the Browns still rank highly in offensive, defensive, and special teams efficiency, ranking 8th, 5th, and 4th respectively. They have a -3 turnover margin, which has likely cost them at least a game or two, but turnover margins tend to be very inconsistent on a week-to-week basis. The Browns do have some injury concerns with running back Kareem Hunt, right tackle Jack Conklin, and wide receiver Odell Beckham all out, while quarterback Baker Mayfield is playing at less than 100%, but they haven’t really been healthy all season and, even in their current injury situation, they still have a 4-point edge on the Bengals in my roster rankings. 

The Bengals got out to a 5-2 start on the strength of their defense, but their defense was always overachieving its talent level and has now fallen back to earth in a big way after being carved apart by the lowly Jets, now ranking 14th in schedule adjusted defensive efficiency, while their offense still ranks just 27th when you take into account they’ve faced the easiest schedule of defenses in the league. 

Add in a 10th ranked special teams and you have a Bengals team that ranks behind the Browns in all three phases and yet is being favored at home, albeit by less than 3 points. I wish we were getting the full field goal and that we had more certainty in Baker Mayfield’s health, but he practiced in full all season and the Browns have a very good chance to come on the road and get the upset, so I like the Browns both against the spread and straight up at +115.

Update: The more I think about this, the more I want to increase this bet. Baker Mayfield practiced in full all week, reportedly looked great, and was not listed with an injury designation. The Browns have been held to 14 points or fewer in three straight games with Baker out or playing at less than 100%, but they topped 26 points in 4 of their first 5 games before then, including 28.3 points per game in 3 road games, so if Baker can resemble the quarterback he was to begin the season, the Browns should be able to go on the road and win this game relatively easily. There may also be some added incentive for Baker to play well in the wake of the Odell Beckham situation and Baker’s statistical production has been noticeably better without Odell than with him since he arrived in Cleveland, so I’m not worried that Baker will miss Odell on the field. I’m moving this to a high confidence pick. I was waiting for a +3, but it doesn’t look like that’s going to happen.

Cleveland Browns 23 Cincinnati Bengals 20 Upset Pick +115

Pick against the spread: Cleveland +2.5

Confidence: High

Pittsburgh Steelers at Cleveland Browns: 2021 Week 8 NFL Pick

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Pittsburgh Steelers (3-3) at Cleveland Browns (4-3)

The Browns have had among the worst injury luck in the league. In total, they have been without quarterback Baker Mayfield (one game), running backs Nick Chubb (2 games) and Kareem Hunt (1 game), wide receivers Jarvis Landry (4 games) and Odell Beckham (2 games), left tackle Jedrick Wills (2 games), right tackle Jack Conklin (2 games), Jadeveon Clowney (1 game), and cornerback Greg Newsome (2 games) for differing periods of time. Hunt remains out and top cornerback Denzel Ward will join him on the sideline, missing his first game of the season, but the Browns have enough depth at both running back and cornerback to compensate and, in general, the Browns have much more talent available to them this week than they have had most of the season.

Despite their injury issues, the Browns have been better than their record, as their losses have come to the Chiefs, Chargers, and Cardinals, with two of those games being decided by one score. In total, the Browns rank 11th in first down rate, 9th in yards per play, 8th in first down rate allowed, 2nd in yards per play allowed, and 4th in special teams DVOA, making them one of the most impressive and well-rounded teams in the league from a statistical standpoint, despite all of their injury absences to date.

The most questionable injury situation in this game is how effective quarterback Baker Mayfield will be, returning from a one-game absence to play through a serious injury to his non-throwing shoulder, which could knock him out of the lineup again. However, even with Case Keenum under center, I still have the Browns calculated at 10-point favorites over the Steelers. That’s in part because the Browns are healthier now and have played better than their record despite their injury absences, but also because the Steelers are still a little bit overrated. 

The Steelers have managed wins in their last two games but they were facing two teams in the Broncos and Seahawks who are both mediocre without the key players that both are missing due to injury. The Browns, meanwhile, still have one of the most talented rosters on paper even with some significant contributors out. The Steelers still have a good defense, but it’s not nearly as good as it was a year ago when they played well enough to mask a mediocre offense and led this team to an impressive record with a lot of close wins against mediocre opponents.

The Browns are somewhat in a bad spot because they have to turn around and face the Bengals in a tougher divisional game next week and teams cover at just a 41.9% rate all-time at home in a divisional matchup against a team with a .500 record or worse before going on the road and facing another divisional opponent with a record better than .500. However, that should be somewhat offset by the fact that the Browns are in their third of three home games, a spot with a 55.1% cover rate all-time. Even with conflicting trends, there is just too much line value with the Browns to not bet them, as they could beat the Steelers with relative ease even if Mayfield doesn’t play his best football or leaves the game for Case Keenum.

Cleveland Browns 23 Pittsburgh Steelers 14

Pick against the spread: Cleveland -4

Confidence: High

Denver Broncos at Cleveland Browns: 2021 Week 7 NFL Pick

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Denver Broncos (3-3) at Cleveland Browns (3-3)

The rule of thumb in these Thursday games is to take a home favorite in a non-divisional matchup, as historically it has proven tough for inferior teams to travel on a short week and face a superior team that is out of their division that they are unfamiliar with. Overall, non-divisional home favorites cover at a 65% rate on Thursday nights, as long as both teams are on normal rest. The Browns are only favored by a point here, suggesting that the visitors are the superior team, but I think this line is way off.

Both teams are 3-3, but the Browns have been much better overall. Their three losses came against the Chiefs, Chargers, and Cardinals, who are all among the top teams in the league, with a combined record of 13-5 and no losses to opponents who are worse than 4-2, and two of those teams were decided by one score and could have gone either way. The Browns’ strength of schedule isn’t that impressive, but they went into Minnesota and won by a touchdown against a Vikings team that is better than their 3-3 record, while their wins over the Texans and Bears came in blowout fashion, with the Browns winning the first down rate battle by 11.26% and 18.86% respectively in those games and the yards per play battle by 1.02 and 4.24 respectively. 

The Browns’ one blowout loss, their loss to the Cardinals, did come just last week, which is concerning because the Browns were dealing with significant injury issues in that game that will carry over to this game, but the Broncos are equally banged up. The Browns are expected to be without starting quarterback Baker Mayfield, their two top running backs Nick Chubb and Kareem Hunt, their stud right tackle Jack Conklin, possibly starting wide receiver Odell Beckham, and their most impressive linebacker this season, rookie Jeremiah Owusu-Koramoah, while the Broncos have lost wide receivers Jerry Jeudy and KJ Hamler, edge defender Bradley Chubb, and inside linebackers Josey Jewell and Alexander Johnson since the start of the season.

The common narrative is that the Broncos got out to a 3-0 start by facing weak competition and have fallen back to earth against tougher competition, but the Broncos largely dominated their weak competition and looked like a legitimately good team, while their tougher competition in recent weeks has only consisted of the Ravens, Steelers, and Raiders. It’s not just that their schedule has gotten tougher; they have legitimately played much worse the past few weeks and injuries are the primary culprit. 

This line has shifted from favoring the Browns by 6 points last week on the early line last week to a single point this week, largely due to the Browns injuries and their blowout loss last week, but it seems to ignore the Broncos’ injuries and their recent struggles, all against teams inferior to the Cardinals. When strength of schedule is taken into account, the Browns rank 16th in first down rate, 3rd in yards per play allowed, and 3rd in special teams DVOA, which are the most predictive metrics for each unit, while the Broncos rank 22nd, 23rd, and 25th. 

My roster rankings have these two teams closer together and overall the value of the Browns’ injured players is more than the Broncos’ injured players, but the Browns still have about a four point talent edge and are still in relatively good hands under center because backup Case Keenum is one of the better in the league. Add in their extra homefield advantage on a short week and the Browns should be favored by a lot more than a point in this matchup. This might be a Pick of the Week if this was a Sunday or Monday game, but I hate having my top pick on Thursday before I’ve gotten to review everything during the weekend, so I’m keeping this as a high confidence pick.

Cleveland Browns 23 Denver Broncos 17

Pick against the spread: Cleveland -1

Confidence: High

Arizona Cardinals at Cleveland Browns: 2021 Week 6 NFL Pick

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Arizona Cardinals (5-0) at Cleveland Browns (3-2)

The Cardinals are the league’s last remaining undefeated team at 5-0, but they are dealing with significant absences in all parts of this team. Their offense will be without talented center Rodney Hudson due to injury. Their defense will be without stud edge defender Chandler Jones, who is in the COVID protocol. Their special teams unit will be without Ezekiel Turner due to injury and he’s probably their best special teamer. They also won’t have head coach Kliff Kingsbury, who is in the COVID protocol as well. Kingsbury’s absence will especially be a problem because he also calls the plays for this offense and is his own offensive coordinator.

The timing is bad for them too, as they have to go on the road to face a Browns team that is one of the best in the league, despite their 3-2 record. Their two losses came on the road against tough teams in the Chiefs and Chargers and they easily could have won either one of them, as both were close games throughout. Their offense ranks 7th in first down rate, their defense ranks 7th in yards per play allowed, and their special teams ranks 4th in special teams DVOA, which are the most predictive metrics for each unit. The Cardinals, meanwhile, rank 12th, 15th, and 3rd respectively in those three metrics and have been more reliant on a +5 turnover margin, which is not predictive week-to-week (the Browns are even in turnover margin).

With all of the Cardinals’ absences, this line has shifted up from 3 to 3.5, but I thought the Browns were the slightly better of these two teams even before the Cardinals injury absences, so we’re still getting some line value with the Browns. That, however, depends on the Browns’ injury report. They’re already without running back Nick Chubb, which won’t be a crushing loss because Kareem Hunt can carry the load, but they could also be without both of their offensive tackles, Jedrick Wills and Jack Conklin, who both did not practice on Friday. That would be a much bigger loss and I can’t take the Browns confidently until I know at least Conklin is playing. I’m making this a low confidence pick on the Browns for now, but depending on the Browns’ injury report, I may end up betting on them.

Cleveland Browns 33 Arizona Cardinals 27

Pick against the spread: Cleveland -3.5

Confidence: Low

Cleveland Browns at Los Angeles Chargers: 2021 Week 5 NFL Pick

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Cleveland Browns (3-1) at Los Angeles Chargers (3-1)

Both of these teams have gotten out to impressive 3-1 starts, but the Browns have been the better team. They rank 4th in first down rate and 2nd in yards per play allowed, which are the most predictive offensive and defensive stats, while the Chargers rank 8th and 12th respectively. The Browns also hold a huge edge in special teams DVOA (5th vs. 31st), which has a lot of predictive value as well. Combining the three stats, the Browns rank 2nd in the league, while the Chargers rank 13th overall. 

The Chargers get a lot of credit for their win over the Chiefs, but they relied on a +4 turnover margin to win a one score game and turnover margin is very non-predictive week-to-week. In terms of first down rate, the Chargers were -7.92% in that matchup and that tends to be much more predictive. The Browns, meanwhile, lost their matchup in Kansas City, but had the advantage in first down rate (42.11% vs. 34.43%) and yards per play (8.16 vs. 6.51) in a one score loss in which they lost the turnover battle.

The final result of these two teams’ games against the Chiefs may be skewing this line, as the Browns are 2 point underdogs, which implies that the Chargers are the slightly better team, as they should not be getting 2 points for homefield advantage in Los Angeles, where they are 12-20 ATS all-time and frequently draw large crowds in support of the visitor. Giving the Chargers one point for homefield advantage, I have the Browns favored by 2.5 points on my calculated line. They have a good chance to pull the small upset here and should be the ones slightly favored. This isn’t a huge play, but the Browns are worth a bet this week.

Cleveland Browns 27 Los Angeles Chargers 24 Upset Pick +115

Pick against the spread: Cleveland +2

Confidence: Medium

Cleveland Browns at Minnesota Vikings: 2021 Week 4 NFL Pick

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Cleveland Browns (2-1) at Minnesota Vikings (1-2)

The Browns lost week one, but they still are one of the top teams in the league, as their loss came in Kansas City in a game in which the Browns won both the first down rate (7.68%) and yards per play battle (1.65), while the Browns’ two wins came in blowout fashion. Their offense ranks 3rd in the NFL in first down rate, while their defense ranks 4th in yards per play allowed, which are the most predictive metrics on either side of the ball. This matches up with my roster rankings and overall I have the Browns 9.5 points above average.

Unfortunately, we’re not getting great line value with the Browns as 2 point favorites in Minnesota, as the Vikings have been an underrated team since the season began, with a strong offense and a defense that is much healthier and more talented than a year ago. The Vikings are just 1-2, but their two losses have come by a combined 4 points and their +9 point differential ranks 13th in the NFL. They could easily be 2-1 or 3-0, despite facing a tough schedule to start the season (Bengals, Cardinals, Seahawks) and they are getting healthier too, with left tackle Christian Darrisaw set to make his season debut, shoring up a big position of need. The Browns should be able to win this game, but an upset wouldn’t surprise me either, so I am going to keep this as a low confidence pick for now.

Update: Darrisaw will be active for the Vikings, but apparently will not start in his debut. On top of that, the Vikings will be without one of their two questionable defensive starters, Anthony Barr, who has yet to play this season and will remain a significant absence. At the same time, this line has moved to even, so the Browns only have to win to cover now. They’re worth a big play, given these developments.

Cleveland Browns 30 Minnesota Vikings 24

Pick against the spread: Cleveland PK

Confidence: High

Chicago Bears at Cleveland Browns: 2021 Week 3 NFL Pick

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Chicago Bears (1-1) at Cleveland Browns (1-1)

The Browns are just 1-1, but I’ve been very impressed with them thus far this season. Their loss came in Kansas City against the Chiefs and they easily could have won, suggesting they probably would have beaten just about anyone else, anywhere else week one. In that loss, the Browns outperformed the Chiefs in more predictive metrics like first down rate (42.11% vs. 34.43%) and yards per play (8.16 vs. 6.51), primarily losing the game because they lost the turnover margin, which is much less predictive. 

The Browns followed up that narrow loss to the Chiefs with a 10-point win over the Texans, which doesn’t sound that impressive, but the Browns once again performed better in more predictive metrics than margin of victory, winning the first down rate battle by 11.26% and the yards per play battle by 1.02. The Browns’ offense came into the season with as much upside as any team in the league and they have lived up to it, leading the league in first down rate through two weeks, despite dealing with some injuries, while their revamped defensive unit has been a solid complementary unit. 

The Browns should be considered a legitimate contender, but are a bit underrated because their record doesn’t tell the whole story and the general public doesn’t realize this is a significantly improved team from a year ago. The Bears, meanwhile, were thoroughly outplayed in Los Angeles week 1 against a good, but probably overrated Rams team and then followed that up with a 3-point loss against the Bengals in a game in which they won the turnover battle by 3, but were outgained by 1.22 yards per play, a much more predictive metric. 

Their offense could get a spark this week with rookie quarterback Justin Fields being forced into action with veteran Andy Dalton injured, but that’s far from a guarantee in his first career start and this offense has significant problems beyond the quarterback position, while their once dominant defense is middling at best thanks to several off-seasons of key departures and injuries to key players like Danny Trevathan and Eddie Goldman, who will once again be out this week. 

I thought the Bears were a significantly below average team coming into the season and nothing has happened to change my mind on that, so a talented team like the Browns shouldn’t have any problem against them. This line is mispriced with the Browns only favored by 7 (my calculated line is Cleveland -12), so let’s take advantage with a big wager. This line is creeping up to 7.5 in some places, which would still be worth a bet, but not as big of a bet, given how important a number 7 is for betting purposes.

Cleveland Browns 27 Chicago Bears 14

Pick against the spread: Cleveland -7

Confidence: Pick of the Week

Houston Texans at Cleveland Browns: 2021 Week 2 NFL Pick

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Houston Texans (1-0) at Cleveland Browns (0-1)

The Browns lost week one, but they were probably the most impressive team to lose a game, as they went on the road and outperformed the Chiefs in more predictive metrics like first down rate (42.11% vs. 34.43%) and yards per play (8.16 vs. 6.51), primarily losing the game because they lost the turnover margin, which is much less predictive. The Browns had the potential to be one of the most complete teams in the league this year, with a much improved defense, so even with a week one loss, I liked what I saw from them to open the season.

The Texans, meanwhile, were the worst team to win a game week one, winning at home against a Jaguars team that still looks like one of the worst in the league. I had the Texans winning just two games in my season preview, but I thought there was a decent chance one of those would be their week one game and, much like the Jaguars last year when they went 1-15 after starting 1-0, we could easily see the Texans now go on a long losing streak. This line should be higher, even with it already being 12.5. There isn’t quite enough here for the Browns to be worth betting on and they didn’t win many games in blowout fashion last season, but this is a better team than a year ago and they seem likely to win by a couple touchdowns.

Cleveland Browns 31 Houston Texans 17

Pick against the spread: Cleveland -12.5

Confidence: Low

Cleveland Browns at Kansas City Chiefs: 2021 Week 1 NFL Pick

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Cleveland Browns (0-0) at Kansas City Chiefs (0-0)

It’s possible that no unit has improved more from last year to this year than the Browns’ defense, up there with the Vikings’ defense, which has also added significant reinforcements. The Browns added safety John Johnson, cornerback Troy Hill, cornerback Greg Newsome, linebacker Jeremiah Owusu-Koramoah, and defensive end Jadeveon Clowney, while cornerback Greedy Williams and safety Grant Delpit are both back after missing all of last season with injury.

However, the Browns are starting from a lower base point than last year’s 11-5 record suggests, as they faced a relatively easy schedule and only had four wins by more than one score, as opposed to three double digit losses, leading to them ranking 25th in schedule adjusted first down rate differential. They could have won more than four games by more than one score if they didn’t play as conservatively as they did and they will likely have to open their offense up more against tougher competition in 2021, but that will put more pressure on quarterback Baker Mayfield, who remains an inconsistent, if high upside option under center. 

If Mayfield can take a step forward, this might be the most balanced team in the league, but the uncertainty with Mayfield keeps me from ranking the Browns up there with the top contenders in the league and they happen to be playing one of those contenders week one, with a trip to Kansas City on the schedule. The Browns could still make this a game, but my calculated line is Kansas City -5, so we’re not really getting line value with the Browns at +5.5. I would have liked them more at 6, but the line has dropped to 5.5 everywhere, so this will be a no confidence pick.

Kansas City Chiefs 31 Cleveland Browns 26

Pick against the spread: Cleveland +5.5

Confidence: None