Quarterback

The Buccaneers made the post-season for the fifth straight season in 2024, the longest active streak in the NFC, but how they’ve done it hasn’t always been the same. The streak started in 2020 when the Buccaneers signed Tom Brady, who immediately elevated a team with a great supporting cast that was a quarterback away from contention and, as a result, the Buccaneers won the Super Bowl. The Buccaneers then spent aggressively to keep their team together in 2021 and 2022, borrowing future cap space to do so, but, while they made the playoffs in both seasons, they fell from 13 wins in 2021 to 8 wins in 2022, making the post-season only because of how weak the rest of the division was.

Following that disappointing 2022 season, Tom Brady retired and the Buccaneers were faced with a difficult decision. They needed to part ways with some players to get under the cap either way and could have opted to completely blow it up and start from scratch. Instead, the Buccaneers opted not to completely rebuild and kept as much of their core as they could. They then took a flier on free agent quarterback Baker Mayfield, a former #1 pick who had some successful seasons with the Browns earlier in his career, but who came cheap because he was two years removed from his last successful season and had most recently struggled mightily in a season that saw him make starts for both the Panthers and Rams in 2022.

Mayfield’s addition turned out to be a great decision as he bounced back with 64.3% completion, 7.14 YPA, 28 touchdowns, and 10 interceptions, a QB rating of 94.6, much more in line with the 93.7 QB rating he had in 2018 and the 95.9 QB rating he had in 2020 than the 83.1 QB rating he had in 2021 or the 79.0 QB rating he had in 2022. The result was the Buccaneers winning 9 games, the division, and even another playoff game. However, the Buccaneers struggled in terms of both yards per play differential at -0.33 and first down rate differential at -2.75%, which are much more predictive year-to-year than win/loss record. Their offense ranked 23rd in first down rate and 14th in yards per play, while their defense ranked 21st in first down rate allowed and 22th in yards per play allowed.

Between that and Baker Mayfield’s history of inconsistency, it seemed likely the Buccaneers would have fewer wins in 2024 than they did in 2023. Instead, their offense improved to a new level, ranking 3rd in first down rate and 4th in yards per play, in large part due to quarterback Baker Mayfield having a career best year, completing 71.4% of his passes for 7.89 YPA, 41 touchdowns, and 16 interceptions, good for a QB rating of 106.8. The Buccaneers’ win total of 10 wasn’t a significant improvement and the Buccaneers actually lost their first playoff game this time around, but they succeeded in a way that tends to be much more sustainable long-term, finishing the season 3rd in first down rate differential at +4.33% and 5th in yards per play differential at +0.75, both of which are much better than their record suggested.

It is fair to wonder how much of the improvement of Baker Mayfield and the Buccaneers’ offense was because of offensive coordinator Liam Coen. Coen came to Tampa Bay in a tough spot, replacing Dave Canales, whose previous success turning around Mayfield’s career in 2023 landed him the Carolina Panthers’ head coach job in 2024, but Coen’s offense proved to be even more effective than Canales’ offense. Unfortunately for the Buccaneers, Coen also parlayed his one season as the Buccaneers’ offensive coordinator into a head coach job, leaving for the Jaguars, with former Coen assistant Josh Grizzard being elevated to his first NFL offensive coordinator job to replace him. It’s very possible Grizzard doesn’t have anywhere near the same level of success Coen had last season, which would be a big blow to this team.

Mayfield will again be backed up by Kyle Trask, who was originally drafted in the 2nd round of the 2021 NFL Draft to potentially replace Brady long-term, before losing a competition for the starting job to Mayfield. In four seasons as the backup, Trask has only gotten to attempt 11 passes, so he’s an unknown commodity, but the Buccaneers like him enough to keep him as the backup for a fifth straight season, preventing him from leaving as a free agent with a 1-year, 2.7875 million dollar deal this off-season. It’s tough to know what to make of him, but needless to say the Buccaneers are hoping that Mayfield can stay healthy all season long again in 2025.

Grade: A-

Running Backs

It wasn’t just improved play by Baker Mayfield and the passing game that led to the Buccaneers’ offense being more effective this season, as they also improved significantly on the ground, going a 3.44 yards per carry average in 2023, dead last in the NFL, to a 5.25 yards per carry average in 2024, 3rd in the NFL. Part of that was due to improved offensive line play, which I will get into later, but the Buccaneers also got a huge year from rookie running back Bucky Irving, who was one of the best running backs in the league, despite only being a 4th round pick.

Irving rushed for 1,122 yards and 8 touchdowns on 207 carries, ranking 4th among eligible running backs in yards per carry at 5.42, 1st in yards per carry after contact at 4.03, 4th in PFF grade at 90.6, 2nd in elusive rating at 122.1, and 6th in carry success rate at 55.1. He was also an effective receiver too, ranking 6th among running backs with 1.63 yards per route run, taking 52 targets for a 47/392/0 slash line, despite playing only a part-time role in passing situations. Irving might not be quite as good again in 2025, especially with the coordinator change, but he looks likely to be one of the best running backs in the league for years to come.

Backup running back Rachaad White also had a solid season with a 4.26 yards per carry average and a 50.7% carry success rate on 144 carries, a significant upgrade from when he averaged 3.64 yards per carry and had a 40.8% carry success rate on 272 carries as the lead back in 2023. He saw his role gradually decline as the season went on, with White receiving 70 carries to Irving’s 67 in the first eight games they played together, as opposed to a 126-74 split in favor of Irving in the final eight games of the season. I would expect a similar split to those final eight games in 2025. White has struggled as the lead back before, but is a solid backup option. 

White is also likely to continue having a role in the passing game, which he has always had some success in, with a career 1.22 yards per route run average in three seasons in the league. Sean Tucker likely remains as the #3 back, after averaging 6.16 YPC on 50 carries last season. He went undrafted in 2023 and only has 65 carries in two seasons in the league, but he has a career 5.09 YPC average. He will likely remain in the same role and rotate in if either of the two backs ahead of him on the depth chart miss time. With an impressive lead back in Bucky Irving and good depth behind him, this is an impressive backfield. 

Grade: A

Offensive Line

As I mentioned, the Buccaneers’ offensive line was also significantly improved in 2024, going from 10th in PFF pass blocking grade and 29th in PFF run blocking grade in 2023 to 2nd in pass blocking grade and 15th in run blocking grade in 2024. The biggest reason for this was the emergence of right guard Cody Mauch, a 2023 2nd round pick who struggled mightily as a rookie with a 44.7 PFF grade across 17 starts, but who then improved drastically in year two, finishing with a 75.4 PFF grade across 17 starts. Mauch is still technically a one-year wonder and could regress in 2025, but even if he does, he’s highly unlikely to regress back to his rookie year form and he also just as easily could continue being an above average starting guard, or even improve further.

Aside from Mauch’s massive improvement, the rest of this line was actually largely the same in 2024 as 2023. Center Graham Barton and left guard Ben Bredeson were new starters, but both were actually below average, with PFF grades of 55.8 and 56.2 respectively. Barton was a first round pick in 2024 and could easily be a lot better in his second season in the league in 2025, while Bredeson has finished below 60 on PFF in all five seasons in the league since going in the 4th round in 2020, while making 42 starts total, and will likely continue struggling in 2025.

Tackles Tristan Wirfs and Luke Goedeke also remain in 2025 and both had similar seasons in 2024 as they had in 2023. Wirfs had an 82.8 PFF grade, his fifth straight season with a PFF grade in the 80s since entering the league as the 13th overall pick in 2020. Wirfs started his career at right tackle and has seamlessly made the transition to the blind side over the past two seasons. Only going into his age 26 season, I would expect Wirfs to play at a similar level for years to come and could even have further untapped upside. Goedeke, meanwhile, has had PFF grades of 72.5 and 73.7 over the past two seasons, after struggling as a 2nd round rookie in 2022 with a 43.7 PFF grade. He should continue being an above average starter in 2025.

Depth is a concern on this offensive line. The Buccaneers’ starting offensive line was pretty healthy last season, missing just five games combined between the five of them, which is not guaranteed to continue. Justin Skule (361 snaps) and Robert Hainsey (94 snaps) played well as the top reserves last season with PFF grades of 69.2 and 73.3 respectively, but both left this off-season and weren’t really replaced. The most notable off-season addition the Buccaneers made on the offensive line was Charlie Heck, who is likely to be the swing tackle, even though he has finished below 60 on PFF in all five seasons in the league since going in the 4th round in 2020 (23 starts).

On the interior, the Buccaneers are hoping Sua Opeta can be their top reserve, after he missed all of last season with injury. A 2019 undrafted free agent, Opeta has only finished above 60 on PFF once in his career and coming off of a major injury hurts his projection even more. The Buccaneers have an above average starting offensive line, but they could have significant problems if they can’t stay as healthy as they did a year ago, given their lack of depth.

Grade: B+

Receiving Corps

If there is one reason this offense could survive the loss of offensive coordinator Liam Coen without declining significantly, it’s a receiving corps that should be significantly improved. Chris Godwin is set to return from a broken ankle that cost him all but 10 games last season. Godwin is an accomplished receiver who has finished above 70 on PFF in all eight seasons in the league, including six seasons over 80, while surpassing 1000 yards receiving four times and averaging 1.97 yards per route run for his career. As good as he’s been in his career, he was actually on his way to a career year best last season, as his 2.36 yards per route run average was a career high and the 121/1399/12 slash line he was on pace for would have also set new career highs across the board.

There is some concern about whether or not Godwin will be quite as good again in 2025, coming off of a major injury, but he’s still in his relative prime in his age 29 season and, even if he isn’t quite as good, he should remain an above average receiver and having him healthy for significantly more games will be a boost to this offense. In Godwin’s absence last season, Jalen McMillan was the de facto #2 receiver and the 3rd round rookie was underwhelming overall, with a PFF grade of 61.0 and a yards per route run average of 1.18, but he seemed to turn a corner late in the season, with a 24/316/7 slash line and 1.90 yards per route run in his final five seasons of the regular season. Now going into his second season in the league, it’s very possible he will continue being an efficient player, though his role will be smaller.

McMillan’s role being smaller is in part due to Godwin returning, but it’s also due to the Buccaneers using their first round pick in this year’s draft on Emeka Egbuka. Egbuka will have to earn a role in a deep receiving corps, but his addition does give them some insurance in case Godwin can’t return to form or in case McMillan doesn’t continue developing. Egbuka also gives the Buccaneers a potential long-term replacement for Mike Evans, who has been the Buccaneers #1 receiver for years, exceeding 1000 yards receiving and a 70 PFF grade in all eleven seasons in the league since being selected 7th overall in 2014, with a career 2.08 yards per route run average and seven seasons above 80 on PFF, but who is now going into his age 32 season and will start to decline soon.

Evans hasn’t shown any signs of decline yet, finishing last season with a 74/1004/11 slash line in just 14 games, while averaging 2.41 yards per route run and receiving an 89.0 PFF grade, but age 31 to age 32 the biggest single season drop off in terms of elite production probability and a 32-year-old wide receiver is about half as likely to top 1000 yards receiving in a season as a 30-year-old wide receiver and about a third as likely as a 28-year-old wide receiver, a steep drop off in a 4-year span. It’s very possible Evans sees at least some decline this season, but the addition of Egbuka, the return of Godwin, and the potential continued development of McMillan should more than make up for that in a wide receiver group that looks likely to be significantly better in 2025 than 2024.

With the issues the Buccaneers had at wide receiver last season, tight end Cade Otton took on a bigger role, finishing second on the team with 87 targets, up from target totals of 65 and 67 in his first two seasons in the league in 2022 and 2023, but he wasn’t particularly efficient, finishing the season with a 59/600/4 slash line, 1.30 yards per route run, and a 63.4 PFF grade. That was still better than 2022 and 2023, when the 2022 4th round pick had yard per route run averages of 0.84 and 0.80 and PFF grades of 56.6 and 52.1, but Otton doesn’t seem like he has a particularly high upside and will likely max out as a decent starting tight end. I would expect a significantly smaller role in the offense from him this season, given how much better the Buccaneers’ wide receivers should be.

Otton will continue being backed up by Payne Durham, who was an above average blocker last season, but averaged just 0.78 yards per route run. The 2023 5th round pick has a career 0.87 yards per route run average and is a one-year wonder in terms of blocking at the level he blocked at in 2024, but he could remain a solid blocking tight end. He won’t be needed for much of a pass catching role in a group with a significantly better wide receiver group than a year ago.

Grade: A-

Edge Defenders

While the Buccaneers’ offense took a big step forward in 2024, their defense wasn’t much better, ranking 15th in yards per play allowed and 16th in first down rate allowed. Their best player was probably edge defender Yaya Diaby, who had a mini breakout year in his second season in the league, with a 76.7 PFF grade that was best among Buccaneers defenders across 785 snaps. Also a solid run defender, Diaby especially played well as a pass rusher, only totaling 4.5 sacks, but adding 14 hits, and a 14.6% pressure rate. A 2023 3rd round pick, Diaby showed potential with a 64.2 PFF grade across 515 snaps as a rookie, before taking a big step forward last season. He should remain an above average starter going forward, with the upside to potentially get even better.

The rest of this edge defender group was underwhelming last season though. Anthony Nelson and Joe Tryon-Shoyinka were second and third among Buccaneers edge defenders with 573 snaps and 539 snaps played respectively and both struggled with PFF grades of 55.9 and 52.0 respectively. Tyron-Shoyinka wasn’t retained this off-season, while Nelson is likely to have a smaller role this season, with the Buccaneers adding veteran Haason Reddick in free agency, using a 4th round pick on David Walker, and likely giving a bigger role to 2024 second round pick Chris Braswell, who showed some promise with a 61.0 PFF grade across 328 snaps as a rookie. Nelson also has bounce back potential in a smaller role, as he had finished above 60 on PFF in each of his first five seasons in the league prior to last season, on an average of 375 snaps, and is still only going into his age 28 season in 2025.

Reddick is likely to start opposite Diaby. Reddick had a weird 2024 season, holding out for the first seven games of the season in search of a new contract and then struggling with a 53.5 PFF grade across 392 snaps once he returned. However, he had PFF grades of 72.8, 67.9, 81.1, and 75.2 on snap counts of 874, 852, 816, and 861 in his previous four seasons, excelling as a pass rusher with 50.5 sacks, 46 hits, and a 12.7% pressure rate in 66 games, so he has bounce back potential with his new team in what should be a normal season for him. The one concern is he is going into his age 31 season, but even if he is not quite as good as he was from 2020-2023, he should still be an upgrade for the Buccaneers on the edge. This could be a solid position group overall.

Grade: B

Interior Defenders

Things remain largely the same at the interior defender position in 2025 as they were in 2024, with their top-4 in terms of snaps played, Vita Vea (705 snaps), Calijah Kancey (541 snaps), Logan Hall (538 snaps), Greg Gaines (395 snaps) all returning for 2025. Vea was by far the best of the bunch, finishing last season with a 75.7 PFF grade, playing well as a run defender and as a pass rusher, with 7 sacks, 5 hits, and a 10.5% pressure rate. This was nothing new for Vea, who has finished above 70 on PFF in six of seven seasons in the league, mostly playing well against the run and adding 30.5 sacks, 36 hits, and a 10.1% pressure rate in 95 career games. Vea could start to decline soon, going into his age 30 season, but even if he isn’t quite at his best in 2025, he should still remain an above average starter.

Calijah Kancey was also an effective pass rusher, with 7.5 sacks, 10 hits, and a 10.4% pressure rate, but he struggled mightily against the run. This is similar to how the 2023 1st round pick played as a rookie, when he had 4 sacks, 8 hits, and a 8.9% pressure rate, but again struggled mightily as a run defender. Kancey is still only going into his age 24 season and has time to get better as a run defender and, at the very least, he should remain an above average interior pass rusher in 2025 and beyond. 

Logan Hall is also a recent high draft pick, selected in the second round in 2022, but he hasn’t shown himself to be worth that pick, either as a run defender or a pass rusher, finishing below 60 on PFF in all three seasons in the league. He could still have theoretical upside, only going into his age 25 season, but there is no guarantee he is any better in 2025 than he has been in his first three seasons in the league. Gaines also struggled last season, finishing with a 50.5 PFF grade. It was his third straight season below 60 on PFF and, while he did begin his career with three straight seasons above 60, it seems unlikely that he will bounce back to that level at this point, even if he isn’t totally over the hill yet in his age 29 season.

The one small change to this group from a year ago is that William Gholston wasn’t retained, after having a solid season in a very limited role last season, with a 65.6 PFF grade across 201 snaps. He will likely be replaced by 5th round pick Elijah Roberts, who is likely to struggle, even in a limited role. This position group has some problems, but Vita Vea is a great all-around defensive tackle, while Calijah Kancey is a great pass rusher, so there are also some things to like about this group.

Grade: B-

Linebackers

The longest tenured Buccaneer, by far, is Lavonte David, who has been with the team since they drafted him in the 2nd round in 2012. In his 13 seasons in the league, David has finished above 60 on PFF in every season of his career, above 70 in nine seasons, and above 80 in five seasons. He wasn’t at his best last season, with a 68.7 PFF grade across 1,077 snaps, and he’s now heading into his age 35 season, so his best days are almost definitely behind him, so he could drop off even more significantly in 2025, but there is still a chance he holds off father time for another year and remains at least a solid starter.

The other starting linebacker spot is much more of a question. Last season, the Buccaneers started the season with SirVocea Dennis and KJ Britt splitting snaps there. Dennis played decently, with a 67.3 PFF grade, but he went down for the season with injury after just 105 snaps in four games, while Britt struggled with a 44.6 PFF grade across 613 snaps. Britt took over the every down role after Dennis got hurt, but he struggled so much that he started ceding snaps down the stretch to JJ Russell, who was an upgrade in a limited role, with a 67.0 PFF grade across 249 snaps.

Britt and Russell weren’t retained this off-season and, now healthy, the Buccaneers look likely to give Dennis the first crack at the starting job. The 2023 5th round pick has upside, also having a 66.3 PFF grade as a rookie before last year’s solid performance prior to his injury, but he’s extremely unproven and a projection to a larger role, playing just 206 snaps total in two seasons in the league. Even if he earns a role this season, it might not be an every down role.

To compete with him, the Buccaneers added veteran Anthony Walker in free agency. Walker has started 83 of 99 games played in eight seasons in the league, while finishing above 60 on PFF in six of those seasons, but he fell to a 48.0 PFF grade across 516 snaps in 2024 and now he heads into his age 30 season. He’s also been very injury prone throughout his career, missing 33 games in eight seasons in the league, with at least three games missed in five of those eight seasons. He could still have another solid season as a starter or rotational player left in him, but his age, recent struggles, and injury history are a concern. With Walker’s issues, Dennis’ lack of experience, and Lavonte David’s age, there are a lot of concerns with this linebacking corps, but there is at least upside.

Grade: B-

Secondary

The biggest weakness of this secondary last season was the safety position. Antoine Winfield and Jordan Whitehead began the season as the starters and finished with PFF grades of 56.8 and 58.0 respectively. Both also missed significant time with injury, limited to 528 snaps in 9 games and 731 snaps in 12 games respectively. In their absences, the primary replacement was Christian Izien, who also struggled, with a 57.6 PFF grade across 697 snaps.

The good news is the Buccaneers should get better play at least one safety spot this season, with Antoine Winfield having a lot of bounce back potential. Prior to last season’s down year, Winfield had received PFF grades of 86.1, 77.8, and 91.5 in the three previous seasons and he is still very much in his prime in his age 27 season. Last year’s struggles likely stemmed from not being totally healthy for most of the season, even when on the field. Assuming his injuries are behind him, Winfield’s upside is still as high as any safety in the league this season.

The other safety spot is much more of a question. Whitehead wasn’t retained this off-season, which isn’t a huge deal because he struggled last season, but the Buccaneers didn’t do anything to replace him. Christian Izien is a candidate for the other starting safety role. He had a decent rookie season in 2023, with a 66.8 PFF grade across 718 snaps, before struggling last season, but that came as a slot cornerback and he was originally an undrafted free agent, so it’s not a guarantee he ever develops into a consistent starter anywhere. Kaevon Merriweather might be another option, but he was also a 2023 undrafted free agent and he has mostly been nondescript across 419 snaps in two seasons in the league, though he did have a 65.7 PFF grade in a limited role (260 snaps) last season.

Maybe the Buccaneers’ best option would be to move slot cornerback Tykee Smith to safety, where he played in college, as the Buccaneers have a lot more depth at cornerback than at safety. Smith played pretty well on the slot last season as a third round rookie though, with a 70.2 PFF grade across 632 snaps, so the Buccaneers might be hesitant to move him off that spot and it’s possible he isn’t as good at safety as he was on the slot. Zyon McCollum and Jamel Dean were both above average as the other two cornerbacks last season though, with PFF grades of 69.5 and 75.1 respectively, and the Buccaneers then added cornerbacks in the second and third round of this year’s draft in Benjamin Morrison and Jacob Parrish, so they do have a surplus at that position.

Dean is the veteran of the bunch, selected in the 3rd round in 2019. He has never finished worse than 68.3 on PFF for a season, with five seasons above 70 out of six seasons in the league, but durability has been a consistent issue for him, as he’s missed at least two games in every season, with a maximum snap count of 884 snaps in a season, while missing 18 games total in six seasons in the league. McCollum, meanwhile, is a 2022 5th round pick who is a one-year wonder, having a solid season last season after PFF grades of 46.3 and 52.1 on snap counts of 278 and 784 in his first two seasons in the league respectively. 

McCollum could continue being a solid cornerback, but he could also regress somewhat. Overall, this secondary looks likely to be better than a year ago, with Winfield likely to bounce back in a big way and a couple relatively high draft picks being added, but the Buccaneers still need to figure out the other safety spot and they have a couple young defensive backs who exceeded expectations last season who may not continue playing at the same level in 2025.

Grade: B

Kickers

Kicker Chase McLaughlin’s career got off to a slow start, as he attempted kicks for six different teams in his first three seasons in the league, finishing below average in all three seasons, but he has finished above average in each of the past three seasons and has especially been good over the past two seasons. His 17.04 points above average in 2023 and 2024 combined are the 4th most in the league over that span, while his 9.64 points above average in 2024 ranked 3rd. Still in his prime in his age 29 season, I would expect him to continue being one of the best kickers in the league in 2025.

Grade: A

Conclusion

The Buccaneers’ offense might not be as good in 2025 without offensive coordinator Liam Coen, but they are starting from a high enough base point as a team, ranking 5th in yards per play differential and 3rd in first down rate differential in 2024, that they should still be an above average team, even if their offense regresses. They still look like the best team in the NFC South, they have an easy schedule, and, while they probably aren’t a true contender for the Super Bowl, they are still one of the top few teams in the NFC.

Prediction: 13-4, 1st in NFC South

Quarterback

The Buccaneers went all-in on their three seasons with Tom Brady, aggressively borrowing against future cap space to keep as much talent around Brady as possible. The Buccaneers went 32-18 in the regular season in those three seasons, with five playoff wins and a Super Bowl victory, but when Brady retired last off-season, the Buccaneers were forced to go in a new direction. They could have continued being aggressive and continued borrowing against future cap space to keep payroll as high as possible, in an attempt to remain relevant, but instead they started a little bit of a teardown and rebuild process to try to improve their long-term cap situation. 

The Buccaneers kept several key players, but moved on from others and, overall, looked noticeably worse than the year prior, even before considering that they no longer had Tom Brady under center. Without a high draft pick or significant cap space to use on a replacement for Brady, the Buccaneers took a chance on a reclamation project in Baker Mayfield on an incentivized 1-year, 4 million dollar deal and had him compete for the starting job with 2021 2nd round pick Kyle Trask, who entered the league with upside, but had only thrown nine passes in his first two seasons in the league and underwhelmed behind the scenes. Overall, their quarterback room looked like one of the worst in the league going into last season.

However, Mayfield surprised in a big way in his first season in Tampa Bay, completing 64.3% of his passes for an average of 7.14 YPA, 28 touchdowns, and 10 interceptions, while leading the Buccaneers to a 9-8 record, a division title, and a playoff victory. This off-season, the Buccaneers had a decision to make on Mayfield long-term and opted to keep him on a 3-year, 100 million dollar deal, a big raise over last season, but a necessary contract to keep him after his performance in 2023.

Mayfield’s history of inconsistency is still concerning though. He isn’t a complete one-year wonder, as the 94.6 QB rating he had last season was his third season over 90 in QB rating in six seasons in the league, but in his other three seasons, he has combined for 59.9% completion, 6.99 YPA, 49 touchdowns, and 42 interceptions, a QB rating of just 80.2 in 40 starts. In addition to potential regression from Mayfield, another concern for the Buccaneers is that they were lucky to have the success they had a year ago. Not only did they play in the weakest division in football in 2023, a division that should be better this season with Kirk Cousins joining the Falcons, but they also had a -0.33 yards per play differential and a -2.75% first down rate differential. 

The Buccaneers did win a playoff game, but they also got lucky with that, as they faced an Eagles team that was in complete freefall at the end of the season. If the Buccaneers want to make it back to the post-season in 2024, they will almost definitely have to be better than they were in 2023 and that doesn’t appear to be the case for this team. With Baker Mayfield’s new expensive contract and lingering cap issues from the Brady era, the Buccaneers didn’t have much financial flexibility this off-season to improve this roster. Even if Mayfield doesn’t regress, this team likely will in terms of win total and, if he does regress significantly, the Buccaneers will have a hard time being competitive, even in the weaker NFC.

Mayfield will continue being backed up by Kyle Trask, who still barely has any NFL experience, adding just one more pass attempt to his career total in 2023. He’s still only in his age 26 season and came into the league with a lot of upside, so he’s not a bad backup option, but there are also much better backups than him around the league. If he had to start in Mayfield’s absence for an extended period of time, he could easily struggle, which would make it hard for this Buccaneers’ team to consistently win games.

Grade: B-

Receiving Corps

The strength of this offense last season was their top-2 wide receivers Mike Evans and Chris Godwin, who were one of three wide receiver duos to both surpass 1000 yards receiving in 2023. That was actually the 4th time in the past five seasons that Evans and Godwin had both surpassed 1000 yards receiving in the same season, with the one exception being a season in which Godwin still had 840 yards receiving, despite being limited to 12 games by injuries.

Evans has actually surpassed 1000 yards receiving in all ten seasons of his career, shattering the previous record to start a career. Over those ten seasons, Evans has averaged a 76/1168/9 slash line per season, with 2.06 yards per route run, while missing just nine total games. Evans is now going into his age 31 season and will start to decline soon, possibly even this season, but he’s starting from such a high base point that, even if he does decline, he should remain an above average receiver and could possibly still surpass 1000 yards receiving for the 11th straight season. The Buccaneers kept him as a free agent this off-season on a 2-year, 41 million dollar deal.

Godwin is younger, still only going into his age 28 season, and, while he hasn’t been as good as Evans in his career, he still has an average of 1.94 yards per route run in seven seasons in the league and, if Evans declines noticeably this season, Godwin could easily end up as the Buccaneers’ de facto #1 receiver. Barring a massive decline from Evans, he and Godwin should remain one of the best wide receiver duos in the league again in 2024.

The rest of this receiving corps is still a big concern though, as the Buccaneers were unable to make significant upgrades to what was a very thin group a year ago. Running back Rachaad White was third on the team in receiving yardage with a 64/549/3 slash line and he only averaged 1.22 yards per route run. Tight end Cade Otton was fourth on the team with a 47/455/4 slash line, an underwhelming total considering he played 1,063 total snaps, most in the NFL by a tight end. He averaged just 0.80 yards per route run and 6.79 yards per target. Trey Palmer, their 3rd receiver, was fifth on the team with a 39/385/3 slash line and he averaged just 0.84 yards per route run and 5.66 yards per target. After Palmer, the Buccaneers didn’t have another pass catcher with at least 100 yards receiving. 

White is an above average pass catcher for a running back, averaging 1.13 yards per route run as a rookie in 2022 and producing as a receiver in college as well, but it’s a concern when a running back is your third option in the passing game. Otton is a 2022 4th round pick who could theoretically be better in year three in 2024, but he has a long way to go to even be an average starting tight end, with just 0.82 yards per route run through two seasons in the league. He’ll continue being backed up by Ko Kieft, a 2022 6th round pick who has caught just 8 passes in two seasons in the league with 0.73 yards per route run.

Trey Palmer could remain the #3 receiver, but he’ll at least have some competition for his job, which is good because he was only a 6th round pick in the 2023 NFL Draft and doesn’t have a high upside. In this year’s draft, the Buccaneers used a third round pick on Jalen McMillan, who could have a big role in year one. He could struggle through growing pains, but it wouldn’t be hard for him to be an upgrade over Palmer, both in the short-term and in the long-term.

The Buccaneers also signed veteran Sterling Shepard in free agency. He has a decent 1.45 yards per route run average in his career, but he missed 34 of 66 possible games from 2019-2022, fell to 0.63 yards per route run and 2.59 yards per target in 2023, and now is going into his age 31 season, so he’d be a very underwhelming #3 receiver and isn’t even a lock to make the final roster. The Buccaneers have a great wide receiver duo of Mike Evans and Chris Godwin, but the rest of this receiving corps is a mess, which is a concern and would especially be a concern if either Evans or Godwin missed significant time with injury.

Grade: B

Running Backs

The Buccaneers’ running game was also a big weakness last season, as they ranked dead last in the NFL in yards per carry at 3.44. Run blocking was a big part of the problem, as they ranked 29th on PFF in terms of team run blocking grade, but their running backs were part of the problem as well. Lead back Rachaad White averaged just 3.64 YPC with 6 touchdowns on 272 carries and had just 2.53 yards per carry after contact with just 39 broken tackles, giving him a below average elusive rating of 45.9. A 3rd round pick in 2022, White also only averaged 3.71 yards per carry with an elusive rating of 31.3 as a rookie. He’s only in his age 25 season and could take a step forward in year three, but his career is off to an underwhelming start.

Unfortunately, the Buccaneers won’t have much choice but to give White a big role again, only adding 4th round rookie Bucky Irving to the mix this off-season. Irving is a good pass catcher and can provide a change of pace, so he will probably see a few touches per game as the backup in his rookie season, but I wouldn’t expect more than that from him. The Buccaneers also have incumbent backup Chase Edmonds, who was second among Buccaneers running backs with 49 carries last season, averaging 3.59 YPC, while averaging just 0.99 yards per route run. 

Edmonds has averaged 4.38 YPC and 1.14 yards per route run in his career, but he’s never had more than 159 touches in a season, with an average of 101 touches per season in six seasons in the league. He’s also now going into his age 28 season, which is relatively old for a running back, and he has a largely redundant skill set to Irving, who is likely to be ahead of him on the depth chart. Aside from Irving and Edmonds, the Buccaneers’ only other running backs on the roster are 2023 undrafted free agent Sean Tucker, who turned 15 rookie year carries into just 23 yards, as well as 2024 undrafted free agents DJ Williams and Ramon Jefferson, who are long shots to make the roster, even in a thin position group. Overall, this is one of the worst running back groups in the league.

Grade: C

Offensive Line

As I mentioned, the Buccaneers’ offensive line struggled mightily in run blocking last season, but they were actually a solid offensive line in pass protection, ranking 10th in pass blocking grade on PFF. The strength of this line is the tackle position. Tristan Wirfs was one of the best left tackles in the league with a 81.1 PFF grade. It was his first season on the left side, but the 2020 1st round pick previously excelled at right tackle, with PFF grades of 81.8, 84.6, and 83.8 across his first three seasons in the league. Still only in his age 25 season, Wirfs should remain one of the best left tackles in the league for years to come and could possibly have further untapped upside.

In Wirfs’ old spot at right tackle, the Buccaneers got a breakout year from 2022 2nd round pick Luke Goedeke, who had a 72.5 PFF grade in 17 starts. Goedeke struggled mightily as a rookie, with a 43.7 PFF grade in 8 starts, but all of those starts except one came at guard and Goedeke seemed to be a lot more comfortable on the outside. It’s possible he regresses in 2024, but it’s also possible he’s permanently turned the corner and will remain an above average right tackle, with the upside to potentially be even better in 2024 and beyond. Wirfs and Goedeke will be backed up again by Justin Skule, who has only had to play 35 snaps over the past three seasons, but who made 12 starts in 2019 and 2020, with a 62.3 PFF grade across 545 snaps and a 45.4 PFF grade across 255 snaps respectively. He’s a middling swing tackle and the Buccaneers will obviously be hoping he remains on the bench for most of the season again.

While the Buccaneers’ tackles played well in 2023, the interior of this offensive line was a big weakness in 2023. Center should be a lot better in 2024, as the Buccaneers will be replacing Robert Hainsey, who had a 52.8 PFF grade in 17 starts, with first round pick Graham Barton, who figures to be a big upgrade right away. The Buccaneers will also be hoping for more out of a 2023 2nd round pick at right guard, Cody Mauch, who had a 44.7 PFF grade in 17 starts as a rookie, but has the upside to be better in year two. He has a long way to go to even be an average starter though and could easily continue struggling in 2024.

At left guard, the Buccaneers will likely continue getting poor play. Aaron Stinnie, who had a 56.6 PFF grade across 717 snaps, and Matt Feiler, who had a 54.7 PFF grade across 386 snaps, are no longer with the team, but their replacement options, veteran free agent additions Ben Bredeson and Sua Opeta, are equally underwhelming options. Bredeson started 16 games for the Giants in 2023, but struggled mightily with a 42.1 PFF grade. The 2020 4th round pick has started 25 games in four seasons in the league, but has finished below 60 on PFF in all four seasons. Opeta, meanwhile, has just 10 starts in five seasons in the league, with 6 of them coming in 2023, when he had a 53.2 PFF grade. 

Bredeson’s 1-year deal is worth a little more, 3 million vs. 1.375 million, so he should be considered the favorite for the job, but both players figure to struggle and it’s possible both players see starts as the Buccaneers try to find a solution at the position. The Buccaneers could also try Robert Hainsey at guard and he was better as a 17-game starter in 2022 (66.7 PFF grade) than he was in 2023 when he struggled, but he’s only ever played center at the professional level. The Buccaneers could also keep Hainsey at center and try the rookie Graham Barton at guard, but they seem to prefer him at center. Either way, the Buccaneers are likely to have at least one position of significant weakness upfront, possibly two if Cody Mauch can’t take a big step forward in his second season in the league.

Grade: B

Edge Defenders

With limited financial flexibility this off-season, the Buccaneers decided to part ways with Shaq Barrett, ahead of a 15 million dollar non-guaranteed salary for 2024. Barrett was set to be in his age 32 season this season, so the decision to move on from him made some sense, but he was still coming off of a good season and will be missed. He only had 4.5 sacks, but added 7 hits and a 13.8% pressure rate, while playing at an above average level against the run, leading to him receiving an overall PFF grade of 75.3 across 651 snaps.

To replace Barrett, the Buccaneers used a second round pick on Chris Braswell and will probably give expanded roles to 2021 1st round pick Joe Tyron-Shoyinka and 2023 3rd round pick Yaya Diaby, who are both only going into their age 25 seasons and could have untapped upside. Diaby played 515 snaps as a rookie last season and had a decent 64.2 PFF grade, while Tyron-Shoyinka has received PFF grades of 51.5, 67.1, and 65.5 across an average of 620 snaps played per season through three seasons in the league. They’ll need to take a step forward to be anything more than decent starters in 2024, but both have to upside to do that. The rookie Braswell also has a high upside and, though he could have growing pains as a rookie, he could still be useful in a situational role.

The Buccaneers also bring back veteran Anthony Nelson, after he had a 60.2 PFF grade across 409 snaps last season. That’s largely in line with what the 2019 4th round pick has done in every season for his 5-year career to date, averaging 375 snaps per season and finishing above 60 on PFF in all five seasons. He only has a career 7.3% pressure rate, but he’s an above average run stopper who should be useful as a situational run stopper in base packages. Nelson, Diaby, Tyron-Shyonika, and Braswell should all have significant roles in a position group that has upside, but that could struggle to replace Shaq Barrett, their best edge defender a year ago.

Grade: B-

Interior Defenders

At the interior defender position, the Buccaneers’ bring back all of their key personnel from a year ago and they should all play similar roles. Vita Vea led the position group in 606 snaps and was by far the best of the bunch, with a 78.5 PFF grade. That was in line with his average season since entering the league as a first round pick in 2018, as he has averaged 536 snaps per season, while surpassing 70 on PFF in five of those six seasons. A solid run stuffer at 6-4 347, Vea is also a surprisingly good pass rusher for his size, with 23.5 sacks, 31 hits, and a 10.0% pressure rate in 79 career games. Still in his late prime in his age 29 season, I would expect more of the same from Vea in 2024.

The rest of this group struggled a year ago, as Vea was their only interior defender who finished above 60 on PFF, but they do have a couple young players who could take a step forward in 2024. Calijah Kancey was a first round pick in 2023 and struggled mightily with a 46.6 PFF grade as a rookie. He was a decent interior pass rusher, with 4 sacks, 8 hits, and a 8.9% pressure rate, but was horrendous against the run, which pushed his overall grade down. 

Kancey will likely always be a much better pass rusher than run stopper, but he has the upside to be significantly better in both aspects this year in his second season in the league. Logan Hall, meanwhile, was a second round pick in 2022. He struggled mightily as a rookie with a 35.3 PFF grade across 403 snaps and was only better by default in 2023, with a 54.2 PFF grade across 542 snaps, but he’s still only in his age 24 season and came into the league with a high upside, so it wouldn’t be a surprise if he took another step forward in his third season in the league and was at least a capable starter.

Veterans Greg Gaines and William Gholston remain as reserves, after playing 473 snaps and 244 snaps a year ago. Gaines had a 51.6 PFF grade, which was down from his previous two seasons as a starter with the Rams, when he had PFF grades of 67.9 and 59.1 across snap counts of 780 and 731 respectively. Still in his age 28 season, Gaines could bounce back in 2024, but he’ll likely remain a reserve regardless. Gholston, meanwhile, is going into his 12th season in the league and his age 33 season, so he’s probably getting to the end of his line, but he’s been a capable run stopper for most of his career and could remain a capable run stopper in a limited situational role for another season. This is the same group of interior defenders as a year ago, when they all struggled except Vita Vea, but they could get more positive contributions from their young players Calijah Kancey and Logan Hall in 2024.

Grade: B

Linebackers

The Buccaneers didn’t retain Devin White in free agency this off-season, after five seasons as an every down linebacker in Tampa, but that isn’t a big loss because he struggled with a 46.0 PFF grade across 893 snaps in 14 games last season. The Buccaneers don’t have a good replacement for him though. In White’s old spot, it will either be KJ Britt, SirVocea Dennis, or JJ Russell, or possibly some combination of the three in a rotation. All three are highly inexperienced. 

Dennis was a 5th round pick in 2023 and showed some promise as a rookie, but only across 101 snaps. Britt was a 5th round pick in 2021 and showed some promise on 160 snaps last season, but he has only played 234 total snaps in three seasons in the league. Russell went undrafted in 2022 and has played 117 nondescript snaps in two seasons in the league. There is some upside here, but it’s also very possible that all of them could struggle in an extended role. 

The Buccaneers did bring back Lavonte David as a free agent and he’s been an above average every down linebacker for them for a long-time, but he’s now going into his age 34 season. He still had a 73.4 PFF grade across 956 snaps in 15 games in 2023, his tenth finish over 70 in twelve seasons in the league, all with the Buccaneers. He’s also finished above 60 on PFF in every season in the league, with five seasons above 80. It’s possible he could avoid declining for another season, but at his age, the possibility of a significant decline is a real concern, especially since the rest of the Buccaneers’ linebacking corps is highly inexperienced. They need David to continue playing at a high level to elevate the rest of this position group.

Grade: B-

Secondary

The Buccaneers also parted ways with long-time starting cornerback Carlton Davis this off-season. Davis is coming off of a down year with a 58.2 PFF grade across 715 snaps in 12 games and the Buccaneers saved 14.5 million and got a third round pick by trading him to the Lions, but they didn’t really replace him and will be relying on young cornerbacks taking on bigger roles in his absence. Zyon McCollum and Christian Izien, a 2022 5th round pick and a 2023 undrafted free agent, played 784 snaps and 718 snaps respectively last season and will likely see expanded roles in 2024, playing in three cornerback sets along with Jamel Dean, a long-time starter who played 711 snaps while starting all 13 games he played last season.

Izien flashed potential with a 66.8 PFF grade last season, but the fact that he went undrafted a year ago can’t be completely ignored at this point and it wouldn’t surprise me if he regressed in 2024, especially in an expanded role. McCollum, on the other hand, struggled last season with a 52.1 PFF grade, after a 46.3 PFF grade on 278 snaps as a rookie, and it wouldn’t surprise me if he never developed into even a capable starter. Dean, meanwhile, had a 68.3 PFF grade in 2023 and finished above 70 in each of his first four seasons in the league prior to last season. Still in his prime in his age 28 season, he should continue playing at an above average level in 2024, although it’s worth noting he’s missed at least two games in every season in the league and will probably miss at least some time again in 2024.

The Buccaneers did add some veteran depth at the cornerback position this off-season, signing Tavierre Thomas and Bryce Hall, but it’s likely that neither are real candidates for a starting job. Thomas has PFF grades of 77.6, 70.0, and 72.2 over the past three seasons, but on snap counts of just 639, 409, and 352 and he’s never played more snaps than that in any season in the league. He could see a situational role as a slot specialist, but he doesn’t have much experience playing on the outside. Hall, meanwhile, is a 2020 5th round pick who saw significant action early in his career and was serviceable, with PFF grades of 59.9 and 63.2 on snap counts of 547 and 1,171, but he’s only seen 153 snaps as a reserve over the past two seasons combined. He could probably be a decent starter in a pinch, but he’ll likely remain a reserve to begin the season.

The Buccaneers’ best defensive player is probably safety Antoine Winfield, who excelled with a position leading 91.5 PFF grade in 17 starts in 2023. That was the best season of his career, but the 2020 2nd round pick not a one-year wonder, with PFF grades of 86.1 and 77.8 in 2021 and 2022 respectively, and he’s only in his age 26 season, so he could easily continue being one of the top safeties in the league in 2024 and for years to come. The Buccaneers rightfully rewarded him with a 4-year, 84.1 million dollar contract this off-season after franchise tagging him, which makes him the highest paid defensive back in the league in terms of average annual salary.

At the other safety spot, free agent acquisition Jordan Whitehead figures to start, after signing for 9 million over 2 years this off-season. Ryan Neal (580 snaps) and Dee Delaney (449 snaps) split snaps opposite Winfield last season and they were an underwhelming duo, with Neal struggling (46.6 PFF grade) and Delaney being average (63.4 PFF grade). It wouldn’t be hard for Whitehead to be an upgrade, after starting all 64 games he’s played in the past four seasons with solid PFF grades of 66.3, 74.9, 66.1, and 68.2 respectively. The Buccaneers also added additional safety depth by drafting Tykee Smith in the 3rd round and he could have a situational role in obvious passing situations. The Buccaneers have some concerns at the cornerback position, but this is a pretty good secondary overall, led by dominant safety Antoine Winfield.

Grade: B+

Conclusion

The Buccaneers were a surprising playoff qualifier a year ago, but they could easily take a big step back in terms of win total this season. In terms of yards per play differential and first down rate differential, which are much more predictive year-to-year than win/loss record, the Buccaneers were a mediocre team a year ago, even before you take into account their weak schedule. This season, their schedule is tougher, their division is stronger, and their roster is about the same, if not worse than a year ago, especially if quarterback Baker Mayfield regresses, a strong possibility, considering his inconsistent history. Even if Mayfield doesn’t regress, it seems unlikely this team will qualify for a playoff spot.

Prediction: 6-11, 3rd in NFC South

Quarterback

Three off-seasons ago, the Buccaneers’ franchise changed when they shockingly signed Tom Brady away from the Patriots in free agency, ending Brady’s legendary two decade long run in New England. It was a risky move because of Brady’s age (going into his age 43 season at that point), but the Buccaneers felt their up and coming roster was legitimately a quarterback away from contending for a Super Bowl and that if Brady continued holding off father time, he could be that quarterback to take them all the way, as he did six times prior with the Patriots. The gamble paid off immediately, as Brady led the Buccaneers to a Super Bowl victory in just his first season with the team in 2020. 

With Brady aging, the Buccaneers got aggressive to keep their limited Super Bowl window open, borrowing significant amounts of future cap space in order to bring back every starter on offense and defense from their Super Bowl team, despite several key players hitting free agency. The Buccaneers didn’t return to the Super Bowl the following season, but were one of the best teams in the league in the regular season with a 13-4 record and, considering they barely lost to the eventual Super Bowl champion Rams in the post-season, they legitimately could have been a couple plays away from being the first team to repeat as Super Bowl champions in two decades.

The Buccaneers weren’t quite able to repeat the feat and bring back everyone the following off-season, but they still entered the 2022 season with much of their 2020 core intact. However, the result was not what they wanted. The few players they allowed to leave were badly missed,  they were one of the most injury plagued teams in the season, with the 5th most adjusted games lost in the league, and Tom Brady finally started to show signs of his age in what was his age 45 season in 2022, completing 66.8% of his passes for an average of 6.40 YPA, 25 touchdowns, and 9 interceptions, his 3rd lowest QB rating (90.7) in the previous 14 seasons and the lowest YPA average since his second season as the Patriots starter in 2002.

The Buccaneers still won the NFC South, but only by default as their 8-9 record was good enough in the league’s worst division, and they didn’t put up much of a fight in the post-season, losing at home to the Cowboys in the first round by a final score of 31-14. That game ended up being the final one of Brady’s illustrious career. Brady was set to be a free agent this off-season and likely could have kept playing if he wanted to, either back in Tampa Bay or with another team he signed with as a free agent, but he likely rightfully saw Tampa Bay as a team in decline and didn’t feel like any of his other potential destinations gave him a realistic chance to win another Super Bowl in what would have been his age 46 season, after a disappointing season in Tampa Bay, so, rather than risking injury for another year, he opted to call it quits.

The Buccaneers could have copied the strategy their division rival Saints followed after Drew Brees’ retirement two years ago, continue being aggressive with the cap in order to maintain respectability in the short-term, even if there’s no real chance of winning a Super Bowl, rather than going through a proper rebuild, but, instead the Buccaneers are letting the rebuild happen, which should prove to be the correct decision. After ranking 2nd and 9th in average annual salary of their roster in the previous two seasons respectively, the Buccaneers now rank just 26th and, while average annual value correlates heavily with winning percentage and the short-term result will likely be ugly, in the long run, their strategy will almost definitely get them back into legitimate contention faster, as the Buccaneers currently have 17 million in cap space for 2024, while the Saints have negative 77 million, after years of borrowing future cap space. 

The Buccaneers are also much more likely than the Saints to be in position to draft one of the top quarterback prospects in next year’s draft. Rather than shelling out top money for a middling quarterback like the Saints did by giving 150 million over 4 years to Derek Carr, the Buccaneers took a less expensive approach at the quarterback position, signing journeyman Baker Mayfield to an incentivized 1-year, 4 million dollar deal to compete with 2021 2nd round pick Kyle Trask, who the Buccaneers originally drafted to be a potential successor to Brady. Both quarterbacks at least have upside and could potentially prove to be a long-term starting quarterback for this team, but, even if they don’t, the result is likely to be the Buccaneers having one of the worst records in the league and ending up with a high draft pick as a result.

Trask’s draft position normally would suggest he’s the favorite, but he’s thrown just nine unimpressive regular season passes behind Brady the past two seasons and it doesn’t sound like his progress behind the scenes has been great either, so Mayfield is actually the likely favorite for the job. Mayfield was once the #1 overall pick, back in 2018, and his overall performance in four seasons with the Browns wasn’t bad, as he made 59 starts, while completing 61.6% of his passes for an average of 7.34 YPA, 92 touchdowns, and 56 interceptions, but the Browns felt he benefited significantly from his supporting cast and didn’t move the needle by himself, so they traded for Deshaun Watson and salary dumped Mayfield on the Panthers last off-season. 

In Carolina, Mayfield proved to be a disaster, completing 57.8% of his passes for an average of 6.37 YPA, 6 touchdowns, and 6 interceptions in six starts, leading to him being benched and eventually cut by a Panthers team with arguably the worst quarterback situation in the league. However, he was better after being signed mid-season by the Rams, making four starts in place of the injured Matt Stafford and completing 63.6% of his passes for an average of 6.59 YPA, 4 touchdowns, and 2 interceptions, despite a very mediocre supporting cast. 

Mayfield won’t get a ton of help from his supporting cast in Tampa Bay, but he finished higher than 70 on PFF in each of his first three seasons in the league and, only going into his age 28 season, he has some bounce back potential and I think he has a better chance of reaching that potential than the raw, inexperienced Trask. This will be a quarterback battle for much of training camp and into the pre-season, but I would expect Mayfield to be the better quarterback and win the job. It also wouldn’t be a surprise if the Buccaneers started both quarterbacks at points this season, especially if they fall out of contention with Mayfield and want to at least get a look at the young Trask. This is an underwhelming quarterback room compared to most of the league, but both starting options at least have upside.

Grade: C+

Running Backs

Tom Brady’s relative struggles last season were part of the reason why the Buccaneers’ offense disappointed, but Brady still played pretty well, finishing the season 10th among quarterbacks on PFF with a 79.7 grade, more than they can expect out of either of their quarterbacks this season, so Brady wasn’t the biggest problem on this offense. The bigger problem was their lack of a running game. Not only did the Buccaneers struggle to run the ball, ranking dead last in the NFL with a 3.39 YPC average (the 2nd worst team was at 3.71), but they didn’t even really try to run the ball, with the fewest team carries on the season (386) and the most team pass attempts by a wide margin (751, 100+ more than all but five teams), which put a lot of pressure on an aging Brady to make this offense go.

Run blocking was part of the problem (25th on PFF in team run blocking grade) and I’ll get into the Buccaneers’ offensive line struggles later, but the running backs themselves were also a problem, with their top-2 running backs Leonard Fournette and Rachaad White ranking 50th and 53rd respectively out of 60 eligible running backs in run grade, while averaging 3.53 YPC and 3.73 YPC on 189 carries and 129 carries respectively. The Buccaneers also didn’t really do anything to improve this running back group significantly this off-season, aside from signing fellow veteran Chase Edmonds to replace Fournette, so they will be counting on White taking a big step forward in his second year in the league in 2023. He was a third round pick and came into the league with a good amount of upside, but he’ll need to improve significantly in year two to even be an average lead back option. 

White probably won’t have any choice but to be the lead back though, as Edmonds has never been more than a change of pace back, with 401 carries in five seasons in the league and a career high of 116. Edmonds at least has a career 4.48 YPC average, but most of his carries have come in passing situations when it is easier to run, so that’s a bit misleading and, even if he can continue having a solid average in Tampa Bay, it will almost definitely only be as a change of pace back. The Buccaneers also used a 3rd round pick in 2020 on Ke’Shawn Vaughn, but he’s shown very little in three years in the league, leading to him receiving just 91 career touches. He’ll probably have a bigger role by default this season, but I don’t see him having a big impact.

With a very pass heavy gameplan last season, the Buccaneers tried to compensate for their lack of a running game by throwing frequently to their running backs, with Fournette and White receiving 83 targets and 58 targets respectively, but they averaged just 6.30 yards per target and 5.00 yards per target respectively, so that wasn’t an effective way to move the ball last season. In 2023, the Buccaneers will have to be more balanced, unable to put the entire burden of moving the offense on Tom Brady anymore, but they still figure to use their running backs heavily in the passing game.

White figures to see a significant uptick in carries as the lead back on what should be a more balanced team in 2023, but he also figures to still maintain a significant passing down role. Edmonds will also contribute in passing situations, which he’s decent in, with a 1.15 yards per route run average in his career, up slightly from the 1.13 White averaged last season. Vaughn could also see some passing down work as that was considered a strength of his entering the league, but he has just 79 career receiving yards on 22 career targets, so he probably won’t be a useful contributor in that aspect either. This is an underwhelming backfield overall.

Grade: C+

Offensive Line

I mentioned the Buccaneers’ run blocking struggles earlier. They were better in pass protection, leading to Brady remarkably only being sacked 22 times on 758 dropbacks, but a lot of that had to do with Brady himself, as Brady’s 2.30 second average time in the pocket was fastest in the league by a significant margin, with 2nd ranked Cooper Rush (2.44) actually being closer to the 10th ranked quarterback than he was to Brady, and having to get rid of the ball so quickly led to their offense frequently not being in rhythm. Unsurprisingly, Brady saw a significant increase in yards per attempt (7.00) when he had more than 2.5 seconds to throw, as opposed to 6.11 when he threw it in less than 2.5 seconds.

The Buccaneers lost center Ryan Jensen to injury, left guard Ali Marpet to retirement, and right guard Alex Cappa to free agency last off-season, so the Buccaneers’ offensive line struggles weren’t too surprising, but things got worse when left tackle Donovan Smith suffered an injury and replacement right guard Shaq Mason struggled by his standards. To save money with both players going into their age 30 seasons, the Buccaneers moved on from Smith and Mason this off-season, leaving them with just two starters remaining from their Super Bowl offensive line, one of whom, Jensen, is coming off of a lost season due to injury.

Despite not having a lot of flexibility, the Buccaneers did a good job finding some decent replacements this off-season, signing veteran Matt Feiler and using a second round pick on North Dakota State’s Cody Mauch. Mauch figures to start right away at right guard and, though he could have growing pains in year one, he profiles as a future above average starter, while Feiler is a versatile player who could start at either left guard or right tackle, depending on where the Buccaneers want to play Luke Goedeke, a second round pick a year ago. 

Goedeke struggled in 7 starts at left guard and 1 start at right tackle as a rookie (43.7 overall PFF grade), but he still has the upside to be significantly improved in year two. The Buccaneers also have 2021 3rd round pick Robert Hainsey, who filled in admirably at center with a 66.7 PFF grade in 17 starts in the first significant action of his career last season and who will now likely serve as useful, versatile depth on the interior, while mediocre career backup Justin Skule (12 starts in 4 seasons in the league) provides depth at tackle.

Feiler’s age is a concern, going into his age 31 season, especially since he finished last season with a career worst 53.3 PFF grade, but he had finished above 65 in each of his previous four seasons as a starter (55 starts total over that span), with three seasons over 70, so even if his best days are behind him, he could still have some bounce back potential in 2023 and could have a better year than he had in 2022. It’s possible he could keep declining, but he’s not totally over the hill yet and a capable season from him is definitely not out of the question.

Age is a concern for Jensen as well, especially after an injury cost him his entire 2022 season. Jensen has finished above 60 on PFF in four of five seasons as a starter in his career, making all 81 starts in those 5 seasons, with a pair of seasons in the 70s on PFF, but his last season over 70 was back in 2019 and it’s likely his best days are behind him at this point, even if he manages to hold up as a solid starter for another season. A noticeable decline is certainly a possibility for him, which would likely make center a position of weakness on this offense.

With the Buccaneers’ other offensive line options either being young and inexperienced or over 30 and likely on the decline, it’s good they still have Tristan Wirfs, who has probably been their best offensive lineman over the past few seasons, even when this used to be a much better offensive line. Wirfs is only going into his age 24 season, but the 2020 13th overall pick has already developed into one of the best offensive tackles in the league, ranking 12th, 6th, and 6th among offensive tackles on PFF in three seasons in the league respectively, with overall grades of 81.8, 84.6, and 83.8 respectively. Wirfs will be moving to the left side in 2023 for the first time with Donovan Smith gone and it’s possible he’s not as good on the left side as he is on the right, but I don’t expect a significant drop off and he should be one of the better left tackles in the league in 2023. His presence should significantly benefit an offensive line that otherwise figures to be a liability again this season.

Grade: B

Receiving Corps

The Buccaneers’ receiving corps were supposed to be a strength going into last season, but even this group disappointed in 2022. Mike Evans and Chris Godwin had impressive slash lines of 77/1124/6 and 104/1023/3 respectively, the third season in four years in which both have surpassed 1,000 yards, with Godwin’s injury plagued 2020 season being the only exception. However, even they weren’t as good as they normally are, with Godwin averaging 1.76 yards per route run, down from 1.97 for his career, and posting a 75.1 PFF grade, worst in six seasons in the league, while Evans averaged 1.81 yards per route run, down from 2.03 for his career, and posting a 74.0 PFF grade, second worst of his 9-year career.

For Godwin, injury was probably part of the problem, as he didn’t look quite 100% in his first year back from a torn ACL and, going into his age 27 season, he has plenty of bounce back potential, even with an obvious downgrade under center. For Evans, the slight decline is more concerning, as he now heads into his age 30 season, with his last season over 80 on PFF and over 2 yards per route run coming back in 2019. Evans was still the more effective of the two options in 2022, averaging 8.85 yards per target, as opposed to 7.20 for Godwin, but it wouldn’t be a surprise if Evans declined a little bit in 2023 and a healthier Godwin became their more effective pass catcher going forward. Evans and Godwin are still one of the better wide receiver duos in the league, but they’re probably not as good as they were 2-3 years ago.

Aside from Evans and Godwin, the rest of this receiving corps was a big problem in 2022. I already mentioned all of the inefficient targets to running backs, but the Buccaneers also targeted tight ends frequently in the passing game in 2022 with little success, with 118 targets to Cade Otton (65 targets), Cameron Brate (38 targets), Ko Kieft (10), and Kyle Rudolph (5 targets) resulting in 5.70 yards per attempt, as the Buccaneers badly missed Rob Gronkowski, who retired the previous off-season. 

Brate and Rudolph are gone, leaving Otton and Kieft, 4th and 6th round rookie last season, atop the depth chart, along with Payne Durham, a 5th round rookie out of Purdue this season. Kieft did average a decent 1.25 yards per route run last season, but in very limited action, while Otton averaged just 0.84 yards per route run. Both have upside and could be better in year two, but this is a very underwhelming tight end depth chart, without any proven veteran options or high draft picks in the group.

Russell Gage was also mediocre last season as the third receiver, averaging just 1.15 yards per route run and finishing with a 51/426/5 slash line. He’s been better in the past, averaging 1.71 yards per route run between 2020 and 2021 and, only in his age 27 season, he has some bounce back potential, but I wouldn’t expect him to be any better than a solid #3 receiver. He’ll be locked into that role because the Buccaneers have basically no depth behind him on the depth chart, with no reserve options with any experience and 6th round rookie Trey Palmer being the only reserve option who was even drafted, with the rest of the depth chart filled out by first and second year undrafted free agents who have never caught a pass in the NFL. Evans and Godwin are a very talented wide receiver duo, but this is a very top heavy group.

Grade: B

Interior Defenders

The Buccaneers lost a trio of interior defenders this off-season who played significant snaps for them in 2022, with Rakeem Nunez-Roches (548 snaps), William Gholston (494 snaps), and Akiem Hicks (398 snaps) all no longer with the team. To replace them, the Buccaneers used their first round pick on Pittsburgh’s Calijah Kancey, they signed veteran Greg Gaines in free agency, and they will likely give a bigger role to 2022 2nd round pick Logan Hall, who played 403 snaps as a rookie. Hall struggled as a rookie, finishing 133rd out of 142 eligible interior defenders with a 35.3 PFF grade, but he still has the upside to develop into a useful contributor long-term and could easily take a step forward in year two. Hall’s improvement could be mostly by default though, so he still should be a reserve, behind Kancey, Gaines, and top holdover Vita Vea.

Gaines was an under-the-radar signing, but he could prove to be a good value on a 1-year, 3.5 million dollar deal. A 4th round pick in 2019, Gaines flashed potential in his first two seasons in the league on snap counts of 183 and 201, before breaking out as a solid starter in his first season in that role in 2021, posting a 67.9 PFF grade across 780 snaps, holding up against the run and adding 4.5 sacks, 7 hits, and a 8.0% pressure rate as a pass rusher. His play dropped off in 2022 though, as he had just a 59.1 PFF grade across 731 snaps, struggling somewhat against the run, and totaling just 4 sacks, 1 hit, and a 3.5% pressure rate, leading to his underwhelming free agent market. He’s not a sure thing to bounce back, but he’s only in his age 27 season and he was a smart, cheap signing for a team without much financial flexibility this off-season.

Vea probably has the most upside of the bunch, even with Kancey being added in the first round. Vea was a first round pick as well, selected 12th overall back in 2018, and he’s proven to be worth the pick, mostly playing the run well, but especially excelling as a pass rusher, with 18 sacks, 28 hits, and a 10.6% pressure rate in 64 games in five seasons in the league. Vea fell below 70 on PFF for a season for the first time in his career in 2022, but that was because his run defense fell off significantly and he still was an effective interior pass rusher, with 6.5 sacks, 7 hits, and a 10.0% pressure rate. Still in the prime of his career in his age 28 season, there is a good chance Vea’s run defense bounces back in 2023. He’s the best player in a position group that looks pretty solid, despite some off-season losses.

Grade: B

Edge Defenders

Unlike at the interior defender position, the Buccaneers bring back all of their key contributors at the edge defender position from a year ago and they should be better than a year ago, with top edge defender Shaq Barrett returning from injury and Louisville’s Yaya Diaby added in the 3rd round of the draft. Barrett tore his achilles in week 8 of last season and might not be 100% for the start of the year, but the Buccaneers should get more out of him than last season, when he was limited to 382 snaps on the season.

Barrett finished 70 or higher on PFF in seven straight seasons prior to last season, including three seasons of 80 or higher, most recently with a 82.9 grade in 2021. Barrett did fall to 68.3 before last year’s injury and the combination of his recent injury and his age (age 31 season) could mean his best days are behind him and, at the very least, he could struggle to bounce back to his top form in his first year back. Still, having him back, even for just most of the season at close to full strength, will be a boost for this position group.

The Buccaneers also re-signed Anthony Nelson, who replaced Barrett last season, bringing the 2019 4th round pick back on a 2-year, 10 million dollar deal. Nelson wasn’t bad in Barrett’s absence last season (63.6 PFF grade on 632 snaps) and he flashed earlier in his career as a reserve on snap counts of 152, 324 and 359 in 2019, 2020 and 2021 respectively, especially excelling against the run, so he should be a useful reserve rotational option for them and at a reasonable price. He’ll compete with Diaby for reserve snaps and should beat the rookie out for the #3 edge defender job.

The return of Barrett and the addition of Diaby should take some of the pressure off of Joe Tryon-Shoyinka, whose 843 snaps played ranked 14th in the league among edge defenders last season. Tryon-Shoyinka wasn’t bad last season, posting a 67.1 overall grade and totaling 4 sacks, 11 hits, and a 10.7% pressure rate, but he could be more effective if given more frequent rest, which he should get this season. That could lead to the 2021 first round pick taking a big step forward in year three in 2023. This is not a bad position group and it’s one that should be better than a year ago.

Grade: B+

Linebackers

The Buccaneers somewhat surprisingly kept every down linebacker Lavonte David on a 1-year, 4.5 million dollar deal this off-season. Going into his age 33 season, David doesn’t seem to fit the rebuilding Buccaneers’ timeline, but he’s a veteran leader that doesn’t break the bank and, despite his age, he hasn’t really shown any signs of decline yet, posting a 84.1 PFF grade last season on 1,074 snaps that ranked 3rd among off ball linebackers on PFF, the 5th season over 80 in his 11-year career and his 6th straight season over 75. A talented run and pass defender, David’s every down abilities have led to him playing 65.8 snaps per game in 166 games in 11 seasons in the league, since being selected by the Buccaneers in the 2nd round in 2012. He may start to decline in 2023, but, even at less than his best, he should remain an above average every down option and at a very cheap price.

The Buccaneers also somewhat surprisingly might end up moving on from young every down linebacker Devin White, who has requested a trade ahead of the final year of his contract. The Buccaneers are publicly against trading White, but they also don’t seem to want to pay him what he wants and ultimately may end up moving him rather than risk losing him for nothing if they don’t think they can get him signed and if they get a good trade offer. 

Losing White actually wouldn’t be a big loss for the Buccaneers, as he has finished below average on PFF in both pass coverage and run defense grade in all four seasons in the league since being selected by the Buccaneers 5th overall in 2019. He gets attention for his pass rush ability and he does have a 23.5% pressure rate for his career as a blitzer, with 20.5 sacks and 35 hits, but he only blitzes on 12.8% of his snaps and he has been a liability most of the rest of the time. I would expect that to continue in 2023 if he remains on the roster.

The Buccaneers don’t have great depth at the position though. They added Pittsburgh’s SirVocea Dennis in the 5th round of the draft, but he would likely struggle if forced into significant action as a rookie. KJ Britt was added in the 5th round in 2021, but he’s played just 74 snaps in two seasons in the league and has mostly struggled. Unless White stays and takes a big step forward in coverage and against the run, the Buccaneers are likely to have a liability at one linebacker spot in both of those aspects, so, even if White is a good blitzer, the Buccaneers will still need the aging Lavonte David to not decline significantly and continue carrying this position group.

Grade: B

Secondary

The Buccaneers also somewhat surprisingly re-signed starting cornerback Jamel Dean. They had to shell out a 4-year, 52 million dollar deal to do so, but Dean is only going into his age 27 season and he could easily prove to be a great value on that contract. He’s posted grades of 74.5 or higher on PFF in all four seasons in the league since being selected in the 3rd round in 2021, but durability has been a concern, as he’s missed at least two games due to injury in all four seasons, averaging 633 snaps per season with 38 starts in 57 games in his career, which probably hurt his free agent market. He could easily miss more time this season, but, even if he does, he should remain an above average starter for this team when on field. 

Dean being re-signed locks the Buccaneers’ starting cornerbacks in long-term, with fellow young cornerback Carlton Davis being kept on a 3-year, 44.5 million dollar deal last off-season. Davis has his own durability concerns, also missing at least two games per season in his career, with 18 games missed in five seasons in the league since being selected in the 2nd round in 2018, and he hasn’t been quite as effective as Dean, but he has still finished above 60 on PFF in all five seasons, with three seasons over 65, maxing out at 70.4 in 2019. Only in his age 27 season, I would expect more of the same from him this season, although that unfortunately could mean more injuries.

The Buccaneers couldn’t retain all of their cornerbacks though, losing #3 cornerback Sean Murphy-Bunting to the Titans on a 1-year, 3.5 million dollar deal. Murphy-Bunting missed 8 games with injury last season, but finished with a 76.6 PFF grade on 430 snaps and the Buccaneers didn’t do anything to replace him this off-season, outside of using a 6th round pick on Kansas State’s Josh Hayes, who is unlikely to contribute in a significant way in year one. 

Dee Delaney is penciled in as the #3 cornerback, but the 216 snaps he played last season were a career high for the 2018 undrafted free agent and, though he had a decent 64.2 PFF grade, he also struggled with a 54.9 grade on 213 snaps in 2021 in the only other somewhat significant action of his career. He hasn’t proven himself enough to be an obvious candidate for the #3 cornerback job, except for the Buccaneers might not have a better choice. The only other option on the roster who has played an NFL snap is Zyon McCollum, a 2022 5th round pick who struggled mightily on 278 rookie year snaps. The Buccaneers have an above average starting duo at cornerback, but they both are injury prone and depth is a big concern, especially since a #3 cornerback plays close to every snap in today’s NFL.

The Buccaneers also don’t have the safety depth that they had last season to help mask their lack of cornerback depth. Antoine Winfield (764 snaps), Mike Edwards (814 snaps), Keanu Neal (580 snaps), and Logan Ryan (445 snaps) all played significant snaps at safety last season as the Buccaneers frequently used three safeties together in obvious sub packages, but the latter three are no longer with the team. Ryan was the only one of the three to finish above 60 on PFF and he played the least, posting a 69.1 grade in 9 games in an injury plagued season, but without them the Buccaneers don’t have a reserve safety option on the roster with any NFL experience and they didn’t use a single draft pick on the position either.

Fortunately, they did add at least a good starting option in Ryan Neal, who should form an above average starting duo with holdover Antoine Winfield, who was the best of the bunch last season with a 77.8 PFF grade. That’s nothing new for the 2020 2nd round pick, who also had a 86.1 PFF grade in his second season in the league in 2021, after a 67.1 grade as a rookie in 2020. In total, he started all 42 games he’s played in his career, missing 8 games total in three seasons, and he is just entering his prime in his age 25 season. He could easily be even better in 2023 than he was in 2022, especially since he missed four games with injury last season. 

Ryan Neal, meanwhile, had a 85.6 PFF grade last season, essentially out of nowhere, as the 2018 undrafted free agent posted grades of 57.6 and 59.6 on 393 snaps and 434 snaps in 2020 and 2021 respectively in the only other defensive action in his career. Neal still only played 713 snaps last season as a reserve option who entered the lineup mid-season and he was greeted with a cold free agency market, limiting him to a 1-year deal with the Buccaneers worth just 1.2325 million, but he has a very good chance to be a steal at that price and at least be a solid starter, with the upside for more, even if he is pretty unproven. Neal and Winfield are an above average starting duo, as are Dean and Davis, but their lack of depth and sub package options at both positions is a problem and hurts their overall grade in this position group.

Grade: B+

Conclusion

The Buccaneers will definitely be worse on offense this season without Tom Brady, who actually played pretty well to carry this offense to a middling finish (16th in offensive DVOA) last season, and they still have the same problems with their running backs, offensive line, and receiving corps depth that they had last season, this time with one of the worst quarterback situations in the league as well. However, this team might not bottom out like some are expecting, as they actually still have a pretty solid defense. 

They ranked 13th in defensive DVOA last season and, while they didn’t bring back everyone from last year’s unit, they did a good job adding cheap replacements in free agency and they still have several above average starters on that side of the ball, including Jamel Dean, Carlton Davis, Antoine Winfield, Lavonte David, Shaq Barrett, and Vita Vea, the latter two of whom should give the Buccaneers more than they did a year ago, with Barrett returning from a season ending injury and Vea coming off of a career worst run grade from PFF. This is likely to be a below average team, but they should win at least a few games, especially with a weak schedule, and I wouldn’t rule out them winning the miserable NFC South again, based purely on how bad the rest of the division. I will have a final prediction at the end of the off-season when all previews are completed.

Prediction: 6-11, 4th in NFC South