Quarterback

When Jonathan Gannon took over as the Cardinals’ head coach following the 2022 season, the Cardinals were arguably in the worst situation in the NFL. The Cardinals had the oldest roster in the NFL in 2022 and ranked 8th in roster average annual salary, which tends to correlate heavily with winning percentage, but they went just 4-13. Going into 2023, the Cardinals were in need of a major teardown and rebuild and, one of their few young bright spots, quarterback Kyler Murray, was set to miss the first half of the season after tearing his ACL late in 2022.

With their average age going all the way down to 31st in the NFL and their roster average annual value also falling to 27th, the Cardinals’ 2023 season started about as expected, as they lost eight of their first nine games, but they improved significantly when Murray returned, surprisingly going 3-5 down the stretch and showing promise going into the future. The Cardinals had two first round picks in the 2024 NFL Draft, but didn’t do much in free agency, leaving them with a roster average annual value that still ranked just 28th, so expectations were still not high going into 2024.

However, the Cardinals managed to exceed expectations for the second straight season, with Jonathan Gannon constantly getting the most out of his players again. They fell short of the post-season at 8-9, but were better than that suggests in terms of first down rate differential at +1.13% and yards per play differential at +0.31, led by an offense that ranked 7th in both first down rate and yards per play. Now going into 2025, the Cardinals were aggressive this off-season, particularly when it came to making much needed upgrades to their defense and, as a result, they now rank 10th in roster average annual value and look like they could be a playoff team, especially if Gannon continues to coach at a high level.

Murray was a big part of the Cardinals’ offensive success last season, completing 68.8% of his passes for an average of 7.12 YPA, 21 touchdowns, and 11 interceptions, while averaging 7.33 YPC with 5 touchdowns on 78 carries. Overall, he ranked 12th among quarterbacks with a 82.1 PFF grade. That’s largely in line with how he has played throughout his career, completing 67.1% of his passes for an average of 7.01 YPA, 115 touchdowns, and 57 interceptions, while averaging 6.00 YPC on 31 touchdowns on 503 carries, with a PFF grade above 80 in three of six seasons in the league. He’s also not really injury prone, only missing four games in his career aside from the time missed with a torn ACL, which he seems to be fully recovered from. Still only in his age 28 season, I would expect more of the same from him in 2025.

The Cardinals also improved the backup quarterback situation this off-season in case Murray does happen to miss time, signing Jacoby Brissett, who has started 53 games in nine seasons in the league, completing 61.1% of his passes for an average of 6.47 YPA, 53 touchdowns, and 24 interceptions. The Cardinals would be in trouble if he had to start for an extended period of time, but you could say the same thing about most teams if their starting quarterback got hurt and, all things considered, having Brissett as your backup is better than most teams’ quarterback situations. If he needs to make a couple spot starts, it won’t be the end of the Cardinals’ playoff chances.

Grade: B+

Receiving Corps

One of the key players who has broken out in the past couple years to accelerate the Cardinals’ rebuild is tight end Trey McBride. A second round pick in 2022, McBride didn’t do much as a rookie, with a 29/265/1 slash line and 0.84 yards per route run, and he was off to a similarly slow start to the 2023 season, but he suddenly broke out down the stretch when Murray got healthy, as McBride had a 55/538/2 slash line in the final eight games of the season with Murray under center, which extrapolates to 117/1143/4 over 17 games. 

McBride then continued that into 2024, finishing with a 111/1146/2 slash line in 16 games. In terms of yards per route run, McBride ranked 3rd among tight ends in 2024 with 2.14 and his 86.8 PFF grade ranked 2nd among tight ends. The Cardinals extended him on a 4-year, 76 million dollar deal this off-season that makes him the second highest paid tight end in the league, but I think he is still underpaid as the tight end position is underpaid overall. Think about it this way, McBride’s receiving yardage last season would have been 10th among wide receivers, but his average annual salary would rank just 21st among wide receivers and he isn’t just a good receiver, as he also holds his own as a blocker as well.

One thing that could take this offense to the next level would be a breakout season from Marvin Harrison, who they selected 4th overall in the 2024 NFL Draft because of his massive upside. Harrison wasn’t bad as a rookie, but he wasn’t quite as good as expected, with a 62/885/8 slash line on 116 targets with a 1.63 yards per route run average. However, he still has a massive upside and I would be surprised if he didn’t at least take somewhat of a step forward in 2025, with a strong possibility that he takes a big step forward.

Michael Wilson remains the primary wide receiver opposite Harrison, which makes him a distant third in the pecking order. Wilson was a third round pick in 2023 and showed some promise as a rookie, with a 38/565/3 slash line and 1.36 yards per route run on just 58 targets, but he took a step back in a bigger role in 2024, seeing his targets increase to 71, but still producing around the same level, with a 47/548/4 slash line, and seeing his yards per route run average drop to 1.09. Wilson is still only in his age 25 season and could bounce back to his rookie year efficiency or possibly even have his most efficient year yet in his third season in the league in 2025, but he won’t be a big part of this offense unless McBride or Harrison suffer a significant injury. 

Greg Dortch was the third wide receiver last season and he was underwhelming with a 37/342/3 slash line and a 1.18 yards per route run average, which is in line with the 6-year veteran’s career average of 1.22 yards per route run, but he is likely to remain in that role for another season, without a better option being added this off-season. His primary competition for the job will be veteran Zay Jones, who once was a solid receiver, with a 47/546/1 slash line and 1.38 yards per route run in 2021 and a 82/823/5 slash line and 1.44 yards per route run in 2022, but he has seen his yards per route run average drop to 1.05 in 2023 and 0.50 in 2024 and now he heads into his age 30 season, so his best days are likely behind him. He figures to remain the #4 wide receiver at best for another season.

Behind McBride at tight end, Tip Reiman (451 snaps) and Elijah Higgins (412 snaps) saw roles last season. Both were decent blockers, but Higgins was by far the better of the two as a receiver, with 1.01 yards per route run, as opposed to 0.34 for Reiman, leading to Higgins finishing with a 61.9 PFF grade overall, as opposed to 49.3 for Reiman. Reiman might be the favorite for the #2 tight end job this season though, as he was only rookie last season and, as a former third round pick, he has the higher upside of the two options. Higgins, a 2023 6th round pick who also had a 63.6 PFF grade on 191 snaps as a rookie, will probably continue seeing a situational role either way, but Reiman will likely play more snaps than he does. This is a top heavy receiving corps, led by Trey McBride and Marvin Harrison, but this group could be better than a year ago, if Harrison takes a step forward and/or if Michael Wilson bounces back from an underwhelming second season in the league. 

Grade: B+

Offensive Line

Another young player who has accelerated the Cardinals’ rebuild is Paris Johnson. The 6th overall pick in the 2023 NFL Draft, Johnson had a nondescript rookie year with a 60.1 PFF grade in 17 starts at right tackle, before breaking out at left tackle in 2024, with a 80.8 PFF grade in 14 starts. Johnson is technically a one-year wonder, but he entered the league with a huge upside, so there is a good chance he has permanently turned a corner and will remain an elite left tackle going forward and it’s also possible he still has further untapped upside, still only going into his age 24 season. I expect another strong season from him.

The rest of this offensive line is basically the same as a year ago, when they ranked 4th on PFF in pass block grade and 13th in run block grade. Left guard Evan Brown and center Hjalte Froholdt started all 17 games last season and will remain at those spots in 2025. Brown was decent, but unspectacular with a 65.9 PFF grade and I expect more of the same from him. Brown is going into his age 29 season and has mostly been a capable starter over the past four seasons, with PFF grades of 66.8, 64.8, and 55.5 in the three seasons prior to last, while making 57 total starts over that 4-year period.

For Froholdt, his 76.1 PFF grade in 2024 was a career best by a pretty wide margin. A 2019 4th round pick, Froholdt was a late bloomer, playing just 61 snaps in three and a half seasons before taking over a starting role until midway through his fourth season in the league, when he finished with a 61.4 PFF grade in 6 starts with the Browns. The Cardinals took a chance on him as a free agent and it has paid off, as he continued that decent play into his first full season as a starter in 2023, when he had a 64.1 PFF grade in 17 starts, before taking a big step forward in 2024. It’s very possible Froholdt won’t replicate the best year of his career again in 2025, but he should at least be a reliable starting center, with the upside to continue being an above average starter if he has permanently turned a corner.

Unlike at left guard and center, the Cardinals had significant injury issues at right guard and right tackle last season, where expected starters Will Hernandez and Jonah Williams played well with PFF grades of 69.3 and 70.7 respectively, but were limited to just 5 starts and 6 starts respectively by injury. Hernandez was replaced by career backup Trystan Colon, who played pretty well with a 71.0 PFF grade across 386 snaps, but was still benched down the stretch for third round rookie Isaiah Adams, who was mediocre with a 58.4 PFF grade across 462 snaps. 

Hernandez and Colon were not retained this off-season, so Adams will remain the starter, despite his underwhelming performance down the stretch. He could take a step forward in his second season in the league, but that is not a guarantee and the Cardinals are taking a risk by not having a good alternative on the roster, with their top reserve guard likely being Royce Newman, a 2021 4th round pick who made 24 starts for the Packers from 2021-2023, but who finished below 60 on PFF in all three of those seasons, before getting waived last off-season and spending 2024 in Tampa, where he played just three snaps.

At right tackle, Williams was replaced by the seemingly ageless Kelvin Beachum, who performed decently with a 64.1 PFF grade in 12 starts. A 13-year veteran, Beachum has never finished below 60 on PFF for a season and, while his days as a full-time starter are likely over, heading into his age 36 season, Beachum is still good depth behind Williams, who the Cardinals are hoping to get a healthier season out of. 

Williams has missed at least six games with injury in three of six seasons in the league, but he has generally played well when healthy, finishing above 60 on PFF in all but one season, with three seasons above 70. Still only in his age 28 season, the former first round pick of the Bengals has obvious upside if healthy, but it is probably a good thing the Cardinals have a solid insurance option behind him in Kelvin Beachum, given Williams’ injury history. The Cardinals’ offensive line is middling overall outside of left tackle Paris Johnson, but Paris Johnson significantly elevates the overall grade of the group by himself.

Grade: B+

Running Backs

The Cardinals’ running game was the most effective part of their offense last season, ranking second in the NFL with 5.29 YPC. Kyler Murray was a big part of the reason for the Cardinals’ success on the ground, not only averaging 7.33 YPC himself, but also freeing up space for running backs with his dual threat ability, but featured running back James Conner also had a great season, rushing for 1,094 yards and 8 touchdowns on 236 carries (4.64 YPC), while receiving a 90.4 grade on PFF, 5th best among running backs.

Conner is going into his age 30 season in 2025 with 1,642 career touches, so he’s right around where running backs start to drop off significantly, but he also has arguably had the best two seasons of his career in his last two seasons, exceeding 1000 yards rushing in both seasons for the only two times in his career, while averaging 4.81 YPC on a combined 444 carries, as opposed to 4.18 YPC in his first six seasons in the league. Conner also had a 47/414/1 slash line and 1.54 yards per route run last season and has a 1.19 yards per route run average for his career. I wouldn’t expect him to be quite as good again in 2025, given his age, but he still has a good chance to remain at least a solid lead back.

With Conner getting up there in age, the Cardinals used a third round pick in the 2024 NFL Draft on Trey Benson with the intention of having him give Conner more regular rest in the short-term and potentially taking over for him as the starter in the long-term. Benson was decent as a rookie, averaging 4.62YPC, but he didn’t have much of a role, managing just 63 carries in 13 games. Now in his second season in the league with Conner being another year older, I would expect Benson’s role to grow and he has the talent to do well in that expanded role. 

Emari Demercado was their primary backup in passing situations last season and he could remain in that role, even if Benson has an expanded role. Demercado, a 2023 undrafted free agent, averaged 1.11 yards per route run last season after only averaging 0.73 yards per route run as a rookie. Demercado also averaged 9.29 yards per carry last season, but it came on just 24 carries, mostly against defenses that were expecting the run. Conner will remain the lead back and Benson will have a big role as the backup, but Demercado could remain involved in a situational role as well.

Grade: B+

Edge Defenders

While the Cardinals’ offense is almost identical to last season, when they were a well above average unit, their defense looks much different than a year ago, a good thing, as the Cardinals finished 23rd in yards per play allowed and 29th first down rate allowed. Their biggest single addition on defense this off-season probably edge defender Josh Sweat, who they signed to a 4-year, 76.4 million dollar deal. Sweat has finished above 70 on PFF in pass rush grade in five straight seasons, totaling 39 sacks, 47 hits, and a 11.5% pressure rate in 79 games over that stretch, while also mostly playing solid run defense. Still only going into his age 28 season, he should continue playing at that level into 2025. He was a great value and should be a big upgrade for the Cardinals on the edge.

The Cardinals also used a third round pick on Oregon’s Jordan Burch and are getting 2023 second round pick BJ Olujari back from a torn ACL that cost him all of last season, after he flashed potential with a 64.8 PFF grade across 409 snaps and a 12.4% pressure rate as a rookie. Sweat, Burch, and Olujari are being added to a position group that attempted to deal with their lack of talent last season by using a heavy rotation, with seven players playing at least 150 snaps, but only one of them playing more than 300 snaps. 

That one player is Zaven Collins, who should continue having a role, even in a more talented position group. A first round pick in 2021, Collins began his career as an inside linebacker, but has been better off since switching to the edge over the past two seasons, finishing with a 72.1 PFF grade across 637 snaps in 2023 and a 72.0 PFF grade across 600 snaps in 2024, totaling 8.5 sacks, 5 hits, and a 10.9% pressure rate in 34 games, while particularly playing well against the run, including a 85.4 run defense grade in 2024 that was 4th best in the league among edge defender. Still only in his age 26 season, Collins should continue playing at a similar level in 2025 and should still have a role, particularly in base packages as a run stuffer.

The Cardinals should also get more out of Baron Browning than they did a year ago, as the only reason he just played 232 snaps for the Cardinals last season is because they traded for him mid-season and he played just eight games as a result. Browning isn’t much of a run defender, but he has 11.5 sacks, 12 hits, and a 13.2% pressure rate in 37 games while averaging 464 snaps per season over the past three seasons and will continue having a rotational role, after being kept on a 2-year, 15 million dollar deal this off-season. Xavier Thomas, a 2024 5th round pick, is the only other holdover remaining on the roster from a year ago, but he struggled mightily with a 39.4 PFF grade across 208 snaps and could ultimately find himself on the outside looking in for a final roster spot in what is a much deeper position group this season.

Grade: B+

Interior Defenders

The Cardinals also made several additions at the interior defender position, much needed because their top-3 interior defenders in terms of snap count last season were LJ Collier (588 snaps), Dante Stills (532 snaps), and Roy Lopez (464 snaps), who finished with PFF grades of 49.2, 57.0, and 54.9 respectively. In free agency, the Cardinals added Dalvin Tomlinson and Calais Campbell on contracts of 2 years, 29 million and 1 year, 5.5 million respectively.

Tomlinson is going into his age 31 season and is coming off back-to-back down seasons, with PFF grades of 63.3 and 67.4 on snap counts of 617 and 609, after finishing above 70 on PFF in each of his first six seasons in the league prior to that. Given his age, it’s likely his best years are behind him, but he could still remain a solid starting interior defender for at least another season. His run defense is primarily what has declined, but he has still totaled 6 sacks, 22 hits, and a 10.2% pressure rate in 32 games over the past two seasons, which is actually an improvement over the 19 sacks, 46 hits, and 7.5% pressure rate he has in 125 career games.

Campbell is even older, going into his age 39 season, making him the oldest defensive player in the league by three years, but he is seemingly ageless, posting a 82.3 PFF grade across 616 snaps in 2024 that was his best single-season grade since 2019. In total, Campbell has finished above 70 on PFF in fourteen straight seasons, including nine seasons over 80 and four seasons over 90. Over that stretch, he has totaled 97.5 sacks, 166 hits, and a 10.1% pressure rate in 213 games, while also playing the run well and averaging 49.0 snaps per game. At his age, a significant drop off is very possible, but he could also remain at least a useful starter for another season. By signing with the Cardinals this off-season, Campbell returns to the team who drafted him in the second round in 2008 and with whom he spent the first nine seasons of his career.

With Tomlinson and Campbell both on the wrong side of 30, the Cardinals used their first round pick this year on a younger option, taking Walter Nolen 16th overall. He has a huge upside and could also make an immediate impact in a rotational role. He’s also the second straight interior defender the Cardinals have drafted in the first round, as they used their other first round pick in 2024 on Darius Robinson. Robinson missed most of his rookie season with injury, limited to 184 snaps in six games, and he struggled mightily even when on the field, with a 48.4 PFF grade, but he still has a high upside and could be a lot better in his second season in the league if he is healthier. He also figures to rotate heavily with Tomlinson, Campbell, and Nolen.

The Cardinals are also getting back Justin Jones and Bilal Nichols after they missed most of last season with injury, limited to 100 snaps in 3 games and 173 snaps in 6 games respectively, after being signed to deals worth 3 years, 31.165 million and 3 years, 21 million in free agency last off-season. In a much deeper and more talented position group this season, Jones and Nichols are unlikely to see significant roles and both were overpaid as free agents anyway. Jones has finished below 60 on PFF in six of seven seasons in the league, including four seasons under 50, while Nichols has finished below 60 on PFF in three straight seasons. The Cardinals are much better off for not needing them to play significant roles this season.

LJ Collier and Dante Stills also remain on the roster as of this writing, but both may be long shots to make the final roster, given all of the Cardinals’ additions at this position this off-season. Collier is a bust as a 2019 first round pick, finishing below 60 on PFF in all six seasons in the league. Stills, meanwhile, is a 2023 6th round pick who has finished with PFF grades of 59.3 and 57.0 over the past two seasons. Collier and Stills led this position group in snaps last season, but with Tomlinson, Campbell, and Nolen all being added and Robinson, Jones, and Nichols all expected to be healthier, the Cardinals don’t have much need for them any more. This is a much improved position group.

Grade: B+

Linebackers

The Cardinals also signed Akeem Davis-Gaither in free agency, bringing the linebacker in on a 2-year, 10 million dollar deal, but he is not as impactful as the Cardinals’ other off-season additions. A 2020 4th round pick, Davis-Gaither only played 847 underwhelming snaps in the first four seasons of his career, before playing a bigger role in 2024, when he played 535 snaps, but he didn’t perform any better, finishing with a 59.0 PFF grade. Davis-Gaither is replacing Kyzir White, who had a 48.8 PFF grade across 1,015 snaps last season, so it won’t be hard for Davis-Gaither to be an upgrade, but he is still an underwhelming option.

Davis-Gaither will start next to Mack Wilson, who was decent with a 63.8 PFF grade across 760 snaps last season. That was the first season of his 6-year career in which he played more than 400 snaps and finished above 60 on PFF, but he also had a 81.5 PFF grade across 305 snaps in 2023 and, only in his age 27 season, it’s possible he’s permanently turned a corner and will remain a solid starter going forward. Even if that is the case, however, Davis-Gaither and Wilson are an underwhelming linebacker duo and the Cardinals’ depth behind them isn’t great either, with 2023 5th round pick Owen Rappoe, who has played 245 nondescript snaps in two seasons in the league, and 4th round rookie Cody Simon as their top reserve options. 

Grade: C+

Secondary

The Cardinals also used a second round pick on Michigan cornerback Will Johnson. Johnson was arguably the best cornerback in the draft and could have been a top-10 pick, but concerns about the durability of his knee long-term dropped him into the middle of the second round. If he can stay healthy, he could prove to be a massive steal for the Cardinals. For now, it sounds like he will be healthy enough for the Cardinals off-season program and will compete for a role in what is a very young cornerback group overall.

The Cardinals’ top cornerback and probably the only one locked into a role is slot cornerback Garrett Williams, a 2023 3rd round pick who broke out last season with a 82.0 PFF grade across 778 snaps, after posting an underwhelming 56.7 PFF grade across 360 snaps as a rookie. Williams is a one-year wonder in terms of playing at the level he played at last season and might not be quite as good again in 2025 as he was in 2024, but even if he regressed somewhat, he should still remain an above average slot cornerback and he has the potential to be one of the best slot cornerbacks in the league for years to come. 

In addition to taking Will Johnson in the second round of this year’s draft and Garrett Williams in the third round of the 2023 draft, the Cardinals used second and third round picks on Max Melton and Elijah Jones in the 2024 draft. Melton was mediocre with a 55.5 PFF grade across 565 snaps as a rookie, while Jones missed his entire rookie season with injury, but both could provide more value in their second season in the league and should compete for roles. 

The Cardinals also have Starling Thomas, who, while he went undrafted in the 2023 draft, is also a young cornerback who will compete for a role. After struggling mightily with a 46.1 PFF grade across 473 snaps as a rookie, he was serviceable with a 60.9 PFF grade across 817 snaps last season. The Cardinals are probably hoping one of their higher upside, higher drafted cornerbacks can step up and take over a bigger role from Thomas, but Thomas isn’t a bad option to have either.

The veteran of this cornerback group is Sean Murphy-Bunting, a 2019 second round pick of the Buccaneers who is heading into the second year of a 3-year, 25.5 million dollar deal he signed with the Cardinals last off-season. Murphy-Bunting struggled with a 56.5 PFF grade across 725 snaps in his first season in Arizona and, while he has had some better years, he has also finished below 60 on PFF in four of six seasons in the league and there is a good chance he remains mediocre in 2025. His 8 million dollar salary is guaranteed, ensuring his roster spot, but he is not guaranteed to continue having a significant role in a young cornerback group that has other options. 

Unlike at cornerback, the Cardinals have a veteran duo at safety, where Jalen Thompson and Budda Baker are heading into their 7th straight season as the Cardinals safety duo, but both are still under 30 and are unlikely to regress in 2025. Thompson has played 84 games in six seasons in the league, starting 72 of them, including all 47 games he has played in the past three seasons. He’s never been a spectacular player, but he has finished above 60 on PFF in all six seasons in the league, with his career best coming in 2023, when he finished with a 71.3 grade. Still only in his age 27 season, I would expect more of the same from him in 2025.

Baker, meanwhile, has started 112 of the 122 games he has played since being selected in the second round in the 2017 NFL Draft, including all 92 he has played in over the past six seasons. Like Thompson, he has also exceeded 60 on PFF in every season in the league and he’s shown a higher upside than Thompson, exceeding 70 on PFF in five of those eight seasons, including a career best 77.8 grade in 2024. Still only in his age 29 season, I would expect him to continue being an above average starting safety, even if he might not repeat his career best 2024 campaign.

If either Thompson or Baker miss time with injury, the Cardinals could still be in good hands because 2024 4th round pick Dadrion Taylor-Demerson showed a lot of potential in a reserve role as a rookie, with a 75.5 PFF grade across 258 snaps. He might not be able to keep up that level of play as an every down starter if needed, but he’s still young with upside and he’s a better third safety option than most teams have. The Cardinals’ secondary has a good chance to be better than a year ago, given how many young cornerback options they have that could potentially give them more than they gave them a year ago.

Grade: B+

Kicker

The Cardinals began last season with Matt Prater as their kicker and he excelled, making all six of his field goals and all ten of his extra points in four games, but then he got hurt and was replaced by Chad Ryland. Ryland, a 4th round pick by the Patriots in 2023, was a disaster as a rookie in New England, making just 64.0% of his field goals and finishing the season with a league worst 15.46 points below average, leading to his release from New England after just one season. 

However, he was a lot better in Arizona last season, making 87.5% of his field goals and accumulating 1.81 points above average. With Prater a free agent going into his age 41 season this off-season, the Cardinals opted not to bring him back and instead are going with the younger Ryland going forward. He’s still pretty unproven and it’s possible he could regress in 2025, but he also came into the league with a lot of potential and has a good chance to continue being a solid kicker for the Cardinals going forward.

Grade: B

Conclusion

The Cardinals ranked 7th in both yards per play and first down rate last season and bring back every offensive player who played at least 400 snaps for them last season. Their defense was a problem, as they ranked 23rd in yards per play allowed and 29th first down rate allowed, but they should be significantly healthier on defense, after having the fourth most adjusted games lost to injury on defense last season, and they made several key off-season additions as well, most notably edge defenders Josh Sweat, interior defenders Dalvin Tomlinson and Walter Nolen, and cornerback Will Johnson. If their offense can remain a top-10 unit and their defense can improve to even being a middling unit, the potential is there for this to be a playoff team in 2025, especially since they have a weak schedule.

Prediction: 11-6, 2nd in NFC West

Quarterback

Going into last season, the Cardinals looked like arguably the worst team in the league, with one of the worst rosters in the league and an injured quarterback in Kyler Murray who didn’t seem likely to return from his ACL tear until mid-season. The Cardinals finished 4-13, but they were better than that suggests, especially after Kyler Murray returned in week 10, from which point the Cardinals went 3-5, obviously below .500, but better than many would have expected for them in that stretch, even with Murray. 

In terms of first down rate differential, the Cardinals finished at -3.86%, but when you weight their performances later in the season more heavily, that improves to -2.88%. Going into 2024, Murray should be fully healthy and the Cardinals should have a better roster around him, making significant investments in free agency and drafting eight times in the top-104 picks in the draft, including a pair of first round picks. All of that should make for a much more competitive team than a year ago and likely a significant jump in win total. That might not translate to a playoff appearance, but they’re heading in the right direction.

Murray’s stats in 2023 don’t look that impressive, as he completed 65.7% of his passes for an average of 6.71 YPA, 10 touchdowns, and 5 interceptions in 8 games, while rushing for 5.55 YPC and 3 touchdowns on 44 carries, but he wasn’t 100% healthy and had a weak supporting cast, two things that should be better in 2024. Prior to his injury, Murray had completed 67.7% of his passes for an average of 7.08 YPA, 64 touchdowns, and 29 interceptions, with 5.76 YPC and 19 touchdowns on 288 carries in his previous 41 starts over the 2020-2022 seasons, while missing just three games due to injury in that stretch. He’ll always be more of an injury risk than most quarterbacks because of how much he takes off and runs, but he has a good chance to bounce back to his 2020-2022 form this season.

If Murray ends up missing more time due to injury, he would be replaced by Desmond Ridder, who the Cardinals acquired from the Falcons this off-season. A 3rd round pick in 2022, Ridder has completed 64.0% of his passes for an average of 7.05 YPA, 14 touchdowns, and 12 interceptions in 17 starts, which is underwhelming and why he lost his starting job, but he’s not bad as far as backups go and, only going into his age 25 season, he could have further untapped upside in 2024 and beyond. Overall, this is not a bad quarterback room.

Grade: B

Receiving Corps

Arguably the biggest addition the Cardinals made to their offensive supporting cast this off-season was Marvin Harrison, who they selected 4th overall, making him the highest drafted non-quarterback in this year’s draft. Harrison is one of the best wide receiver prospects in recent memory and likely would have been a top-3 pick if this wasn’t one of the strongest quarterback drafts in recent memory. He will essentially be replacing free agent departure Marquise Brown, who was nominally the #1 wide receiver last season, but had just a 51/574/4 slash line with 5.68 yards per target and 1.25 yards per route run. Harrison should be a noticeable upgrade, even in year one.

Another young receiver, Michael Wilson, should be the #2 wide receiver. A 3rd round pick in 2023, Wilson didn’t have a bad rookie year, considering he was a rookie on an offense with a lot of problems, as he had a 38/565/3 slash line in 13 games with a 1.36 yards per route run average and a 9.74 yards per target average. Now going into his second season in the league, on what should be a better offense, Wilson has a good chance to take a significant step forward statistically. 

The Cardinals also added veteran Zay Jones on a 1-year, 2.5 million dollar deal this off-season and he should be their #3 receiver, replacing Rondale Moore, who had just a 40/352/1 slash line with 0.73 yards per route run and 5.68 yards per target last season. Jones was limited to a 34/321/2 slash line and a 1.05 yards per route run average with the Jaguars in 2023, but he missed eight games with injury and was limited in several games he did play. Prior to last season’s down performance, he had a 47/546/1 slash line in 2021 and a 82/823/5 slash line in 2022, with a combined 1.41 yards per route run average, so he should have bounce back potential in 2024 if he’s healthy, still relatively young in his age 29 season.

Veteran holdover Greg Dortch and veteran free agent addition Chris Moore are probably the Cardinals’ top reserve wide receivers. Originally undrafted in 2019, Dortch has slash lines of 52/461/2 and 24/281/2 over the past two seasons as a slot receiver specialist, with an average of 1.26 yards per route run. Moore, meanwhile, has a 1.37 yards per route run average in the past three seasons combined, with slash lines of 21/227/2, 48/548/2, and 22/424/0 in a part-time role, though he is now going into his age 31 season and could decline a little bit in 2024. They’re not bad depth and this isn’t a bad wide receiver group, especially compared to last season, but they’re still an underwhelming group overall.

With all of the problems the Cardinals had at wide receiver last season, tight end Trey McBride led this team with a 81/825/3 slash line, while averaging 2.03 yards per route run and 7.78 yards per target. Overall, McBride ranked 7th in the NFL among tight ends in receiving yardage, 2nd in yards per route run, and 6th in PFF grade at 76.3. He was even better in the final 10 games of the season from week 8 onward, after the Cardinals parted ways with veteran Zach Ertz, with whom McBride had previously been splitting snaps. In those 10 games, McBride had a 66/655/3 slash line, which extrapolates to 112/1114/5 over a 17-game season.

McBride is a complete one-year wonder, as the 2022 2nd round pick had just a 29/265/1 slash line and a 0.84 yards per route run average as a rookie, but he came into the league with a lot of upside and it often takes tight ends a year at least to develop, so it wouldn’t be a surprise if McBride remained an above average tight end going forward, with the upside to improve even further, still only going into his age 25 season. With little competition for tight end snaps and a better offense around him, McBride could easily exceed last season’s already impressive receiving totals. 

McBrie will be backed up by Tip Reiman, 3rd round rookie. Reiman has upside as a receiver, but will likely struggle in that capacity as a rookie and was mostly drafted for his size and blocking ability at 6-5 271. It wouldn’t be hard for him to be an upgrade over incumbent backup Geoff Swaim, who is no longer with the team, after posting a 10/94/0 slash line with 0.94 yards per route run in 2023, while struggling as a blocker as well. This is a young receiving corps overall, but they have a lot of upside, led by third year Trey McBride, rookie Marvin Harrison, and second year Michael Wilson.

Grade: B

Offensive Line

The Cardinals also made a big investment on their offensive line this off-season, signing Jonah Williams to a 2-year, 30 million dollar deal. He will essentially replace DJ Humphries, who was a cap casualty this off-season ahead of a 16 million dollar non-guaranteed salary in 2024, after a 2023 season in which he had a 62.5 PFF grade in 15 starts. Humphries played left tackle last season, but Williams played both left and right tackle in his previous home in Cincinnati and could play either spot in Arizona. It sounds like the Cardinals will start him at right tackle for now, with incumbent right tackle Paris Johnson moving to the left side, but it wouldn’t be a surprise if the Cardinals flipped those two at some point.

Williams was a first round pick by the Bengals in 2019 and showed a lot of promise early in his career, with PFF grades of 70.1 and 77.1 in 2020 and 2021 respectively, after missing his entire rookie season with injury, but he declined to 61.2 in 2022 and then declined further to 58.5 in 2023 in his lone season at right tackle. Williams is still relatively young in his age 27 season and has some bounce back potential, but that potential is less than it was a year ago, now coming off of back-to-back down years. Paris Johnson, meanwhile, is also a former first round pick, selected 6th overall in the 2023 NFL Draft. He was unspectacular as a rookie, with a 60.1 PFF grade, but he has the upside to take a big step forward in his second season in the league in 2024.

On the interior, the Cardinals got decent seasons out of two of their starters a year ago, with center Hjalte Froholdt and right guard Will Hernandez posting PFF grades of 64.1 and 66.2 respectively, while starting all 17 games. Froholdt was in his first full season as a starter, but had a decent 61.4 PFF grade in 6 starts in 2022 as well and could easily continue being a capable, if unspectacular starter in 2024. Hernandez, meanwhile, has made 86 starts in six seasons in the league since being a second round pick in 2018. He’s been inconsistent in his career, with three seasons in the 50s on PFF and three seasons in the 60s, but he’s coming off of back-to-back decent seasons, also receiving a 65.4 PFF grade in 2022, so he could continue being a capable starter in 2024, still only in his age 29 season.

Left guard, on the other hand, was a weak spot for the Cardinals in 2023, with Elijah Wilkinson, Trystan Colon, Carter O’Donnell, Dennis Daley all making starts and all finishing below 60 on PFF. To upgrade this position, the Cardinals signed veteran Evan Brown to a 1-year, 2.35 million dollar deal and then used a third round pick on Isaiah Adams. Brown is the favorite for the job and he’s likely to be a significant upgrade over what they had a year ago, but Adams has more upside long-term and could take over the job at some point down the stretch. Brown has made 40 starts over the past three seasons. He’s coming off of a down year with a 55.5 PFF grade, but he had PFF grades of 66.8 and 64.8 in 2021 and 2022 respectively and, only in his age 28 season, could easily bounce back in 2024.

Wilkinson, Colon, O’Donnell, and Daley all return and will compete for reserve roles, but they’re all underwhelming options. Daley and Wilkinson are at least experienced and both have the ability to play multiple positions, so they’re probably the favorite for the backup jobs. Daley was a 6th round pick in 2019 and has made 37 starts in five seasons in the league, but he’s finished below 60 on PFF in four of those five seasons, including a 38.4 PFF grade in 2023. Elijah Wilkinson has made 45 starts in seven seasons in the league since going undrafted in 2017 and he received PFF grades of 65.5, 65.0, and 64.3 in 2018, 2021, and 2022, when he made a combined 17 starts, but he’s otherwise struggled, including a 46.2 PFF grade in 9 starts in 2023. 

Colon and O’Donnell, meanwhile, are much less experienced and likely have lower odds of making the final roster. Both are 2020 undrafted free agents. Colon has played just 645 snaps in four seasons in the league, struggling with a 59.6 PFF grade on a career high 322 snaps in 2023, while O’Donnell is also a 2020 undrafted free agent, who struggled with a 54.1 PFF grade on the first 193 snaps of his career in 2023. Colon has some experience at center, which increases his chances, but, on a deeper offensive line than a year ago, they probably have uphill battles to make the final roster.

The Cardinals also bring back swing tackle Kelvin Beachum. Beachum has started 149 games in 12 seasons in the league and has finished above 60 on PFF in all twelve of those seasons, but he’s now going into his age 35 season and is only a backup caliber player at this stage of his career. He did have a 61.2 PFF grade across 212 snaps a year ago and could probably still fill in decently for a few games if needed in the case of an injury, but he also could decline significantly given his age. It’s possible he’ll be pushed for the swing tackle job by 5th round rookie Christian Jones. Overall, this is a decent, if unspectacular offensive line.

Grade: B

Running Backs

Despite problems on the offensive line and with this offense in general, the Cardinals were actually a very effective running team in 2023, averaging 5.02 YPC, second in the NFL. James Conner led the way with 1,040 yards and 7 touchdowns on 208 carries, an average of 5.00 YPC. It was a career best year for a 7-year veteran who had previously never surpassed 1,000 rushing yards in a season and who has just a 4.33 YPC in his career across 1,125 carries, so it’s unlikely he repeats that performance, especially given that he’s now in his age 29 season, which tends to be around when running backs start to decline, often significantly. 

Conner is also an injury prone player who has missed 24 games in his career, with at least two games missed in every season. He will likely miss more time in 2024, but the Cardinals don’t have bad depth behind him. Emari Demercado averaged 4.90 YPC on 58 carries last season, despite being an undrafted rookie. He’s still very unproven, but the Cardinals added further depth this off-season, selecting Trey Benson in the third round of the draft. They’ll compete for the backup job with Michael Carter, a mid-season waiver claim last season who only had 31 touches in six games once joining the Cardinals, but who has a decent 4.22 YPC average on 291 carries in three seasons since being a 4th round pick of the Jets in 2021.

Conner is a decent pass catcher with a 1.14 yards per route run average and an average slash line of 39/302/2 in six seasons as a starter, but Demercado was their primary third down back last season to give Conner a rest and he struggled with a 21/119/0 slash line and a 0.73 yards per route run average. The rookie Benson has some pass catching upside, with 20 catches for 227 yards and a touchdown in his final collegiate season, and Carter has a career 1.12 yards per route run average, so there will be competition for passing down roles. Conner probably won’t have as good of a season as he had a year ago, but, overall he’s a solid lead back and the Cardinals have decent depth as well.

Grade: B+

Interior Defenders

Defense was the Cardinals’ biggest problem a year ago, as they ranked dead last in defensive DVOA and didn’t really get better down the stretch, as their improvement in the second half of the season was led by their offense and the return of quarterback Kyler Murray from injury. The interior defender position was a big problem a year ago and, while the Cardinals tried hard to improve the group, they might only be better at this position by default. Their worst interior defenders from a year ago, Jonathan Ledbetter, who had a 36.1 PFF grade on 511 snaps, Leki Fotu, who had a 46.1 PFF grade on 297 snaps, and Kevin Strong, who had a 50.1 PFF grade on 467 snaps, are all gone, but their replacements was mostly underwhelming too.

Justin Jones was signed to a 3-year, 31.165 million dollar deal and he’s played significant snap counts in the past two seasons, with 746 snaps played in 2022 and 740 snaps played in 2023, but he’s finished below 60 on PFF in five of six seasons in the league, including grades of 45.8 and 49.3 on those big snap counts the past two seasons, so he was a big overpay. Bilal Nichols wasn’t really an overpay, signed for a 2-year, 11 million dollar deal, but he’s an underwhelming option as well, with PFF grades of 55.5 and 51.6 respectively across 801 snaps and 616 snaps respectively over the past two seasons. He’s been better in the past, finishing above 60 on PFF in three of his first four seasons in the league, and he’s only in his age 28 season, so he has some bounce back potential, but it wouldn’t be a surprise if he continued struggling, now two years removed from his last decent season.

The Cardinals did use a first round pick on Darius Robinson, a hybrid defensive lineman who figures to see the majority of his snaps on the interior, particularly in pass rush situations. He should be a boost for this group, but he could also be their top interior defender, which is a concern, as he’s just a rookie and could have some growing pains in year one. They also bring back Roy Lopez and Dante Stills, who were their best interior defenders a year ago, with PFF grades of 65.4 and 59.3 on snap counts of 395 and 533 respectively.

Stills was only a 6th round rookie a year ago and could take a step forward in year two, but he also didn’t come into the league with a high upside and it wouldn’t be a surprise if he continued being a mediocre option. Lopez, meanwhile, was decent in a limited role last season, but the 2021 6th round pick struggled in bigger roles in his first two seasons in the league, with PFF grades of 55.7 and 53.1 on snap counts of 502 and 557 respectively. He probably won’t see a high snap count in a position group that is by default better than a year ago, so he could remain a useful rotational player, but, overall, this is still an underwhelming position group, even after the Cardinals made significant investments in it this off-season.

Grade: C+

Edge Defenders

Things should stay the same at the edge defender position in 2024, with the exception of hybrid rookie Darius Robinson potentially seeing some snaps on the edge and 5th round rookie Xavier Thomas potentially working his way into a role down the stretch. Zaven Collins (636 snaps), Dennis Gardeck (510 snaps), BJ Ojulari (409 snaps), Victor Dimukeje (385 snaps), and Cameron Thomas (355 snaps) all saw significant snaps last season and should continue playing a significant role this season.

Zaven Collins was arguably the Cardinals’ best defensive player last season, although mostly by default, as he finished with a 72.1 PFF grade, playing well against the run, in coverage, and as a pass rusher, with a 11.0% pressure rate. A first round pick in 2021, Collins started his career as an off ball linebacker, flashing potential with a 69.3 PFF grade on 220 snaps as a backup in 2021, but struggling with a 59.8 PFF grade across 1,025 snaps as a starter in 2022. He seems to be better in his new position and he’s only in his age 25 season, so he could easily remain an above average starter and could potentially take another step forward in his fourth season in the league in 2024.

Dennis Gardeck was their best edge rusher in 2023, leading the team with 6 sacks, while adding 8 hits and a 17.4% pressure, but he struggled mightily against the run, leading to a middling 67.6 PFF grade overall. He’s also a one-year wonder, as the 2018 undrafted free agent played just 480 snaps total in his career prior to last season, and now he’s heading into his age 30 season and could regress in 2024. It wouldn’t be a surprise to see him play fewer snaps in 2024, in favor of younger players like BJ Ojulari, Cameron Thomas, and Victor DImukeje. 

Ojulari was a second round pick in 2023 and showed some promise with a 64.8 PFF grade and a 12.4% pressure rate in a limited rookie year role. He came into the league with a lot of upside and it wouldn’t be a surprise at all to see him translate his promising rookie season into a bigger role in his second season in the league in 2024. Thomas was a 3rd round pick in 2022 and showed promise with a 69.9 PFF grade in 237 snaps and a 12.3% pressure rate as a rookie, but he took a step back in a bigger role in his second season in the league in 2023, finishing with a 58.5 PFF grade and a 8.0% pressure rate. Thomas still has upside and could have his best year yet in his third season in the league in 2024, but he hasn’t shown much in two seasons in the league. 

Dimukeje, meanwhile, was just a 6th round pick in 2021 and struggled across 297 snaps in his first two seasons in the league, but he took a step forward with a 67.5 PFF grade in a limited role in 2023, especially playing well as a pass rusher, with a 15.9% pressure rate. It’s possible he could continue being a solid rotational player in 2024 and beyond, but he’s still pretty unproven and wasn’t a high draft pick, so it wouldn’t be a surprise if he regressed in 2024. Overall, this is an underwhelming edge defender group, but it’s at least young and has some upside.

Grade: B-

Linebackers

At the linebacker position, Kyzir White, Josh Woods, and Krys Barnes all played significant roles, seeing 64.4 snaps per game, 51.6 snaps per game, and 40.8 snaps per game, but not at the same time, as injuries limited them to 11 games, 11 games, and 10 games respectively. The Cardinals also frequently used three safeties together in sub packages with one playing as a coverage linebacker, to mask their lack of depth at the linebacker position, especially when injuries struck.

The Cardinals will hope for healthier seasons from their top-3 linebackers, but that wasn’t their only problem at the position. Kyzir White was the leader of the group, playing every down when healthy, but he was underwhelming with a 58.9 PFF grade. That was the second worst grade of his 6-year career, so he has some bounce back potential, but he’s also never finished above a 66.6 PFF grade for a season, so, even at his best, he’s only a capable starter. Krys Barnes wasn’t bad with a 60.1 PFF grade in 2023, but that was a career best for the 2020 undrafted free agent, who had grades of 43.7, 53.0, and 46.7 in his first three seasons in the league, and he’s never played more than 526 snaps in a season, so he would be a very underwhelming starting option, especially if he were to play close to an every down role. 

Josh Woods, meanwhile, was the worst of the bunch, with a 31.8 PFF grade, which shouldn’t be a surprise because the 2018 undrafted free agent had previously played just 170 defensive snaps in his first five seasons in the league. He would be underwhelming, even as a backup. The Cardinals could hope for more out of 2023 5th round pick Owen Pappoe, who was decent with a 65.3 PFF grade last season, but he only played 114 snaps as a deep reserve and would be a projection to a bigger role. Even if they’re healthier than a year ago, this remains a well below average position group, with no significant additions made to it this off-season.

Grade: C

Secondary

As I mentioned, the Cardinals frequently used three safeties together in sub packages to try to mask their lack of linebacker depth, which makes sense because safety was probably their most talented position a year ago. That should remain the case in 2024. Jalen Thompson and Budda Baker were the starters, playing 938 snaps in 15 games and 763 snaps in 12 games respectively. Andre Chachere was the third safety, playing 467 snaps in 17 games as a reserve, while K’Von Wallace played 393 snaps in 6 games, mostly as an injury replacement when Thompson or Baker were out.

Thompson was the one who most commonly played linebacker in sub packages and he was the best of the bunch. A 5th round pick in the 2019 supplemental draft, Thompson has received PFF grades above 60 from PFF in each of the past five seasons, including grades of 68.2, 65.0, and 71.3 in a combined 44 starts over the past three seasons respectively, with his career best grade in 2023 being second best on this defense behind Zaven Collins. 

Thompson might not repeat the best season of his career again in 2024, but he should remain at least an above average starter and it’s possible he has further untapped upside, only going into his age 26 season. Budda Baker, meanwhile, had a 64.8 PFF grade in 2023, but that was actually a down year for him, the worst season-long grade of his 7-year NFL career. It’s possible he was never fully healthy, after getting hurt in week 1 and missing the next five weeks. Baker has finished above 70 on PFF in four of his seven seasons in the league and, still only in his age 28 season, he could easily bounce back. He and Thompson are a solid safety duo. 

Chachere had a solid season as the third safety last season, but that was a surprise, as the 2018 undrafted free agent had only played 129 snaps in his career prior to last season, so he could regress in 2024, as an unproven one-year wonder. The Cardinals didn’t bring back K’Von Wallace, but he struggled with a 57.3 PFF grade and he was replaced by 4th round pick Dadrion Taylor-Demerson, who should be a decent 4th safety, even as a rookie.

Cornerback was a big position of weakness for the Cardinals last season, as Marco Wilson (694 snaps), Antonio Hamilton (559 snaps), Starling Thomas (473 snaps), Kel’Tral Clark (464 snaps), and Garrett Williams (360 snaps) all played significant snaps and only Hamilton (64.7 PFF grade) finished above 60 on PFF. Hamilton is no longer with the team, nor is Wilson, leaving Thomas, Clark, and Williams as the top holdovers and all three were members of the 2023 draft class and are only going into their second seasons in the league. 

The Cardinals then added three more cornerbacks from this year’s draft class, second round pick Max Melton, third round pick Elijah Jones, and seventh round pick Jaden Davis, making this a very young cornerback group, with the only veteran being free agent acquisition Sean Murphy-Bunting, who was signed to a 3-year, 25.5 million dollar deal. Murphy-Bunting and Melton are likely locked in as starters, but both are underwhelming options. 

Melton profiles as a long-term starter, but could struggle through growing pains in year one, while Murphy-Bunting is a 2019 2nd round pick who has finished above 60 on PFF in three of five seasons in the league, but the two exceptions were the two seasons where he’s played the most, with PFF grades of 55.9 and 57.6 on snap counts of 884 and 840 in 2020 and 2023 respectively. The third cornerback job is up for grabs, but Garrett Williams is probably the favorite, as a 2023 3rd round pick who wasn’t horrible with a 56.7 PFF grade in a limited role as a rookie and who has the upside to take a step forward in year two.

Elijah Jones is probably Williams’ biggest competition for the third cornerback job, but he could struggle through growing pains as a third round rookie. The Cardinals’ other cornerback options probably aren’t serious candidates for a significant role unless multiple players get hurt. Seventh round rookie Jaden Davis is probably too raw to play significant roles as a rookie, while Starling Thomas and Kel’Tral Clark struggled mightily as rookies in 2023, with PFF grades of 46.1 and 53.0 and neither were highly drafted, going undrafted and in the 6th round respectively. This cornerback group has upside and could be better than last year by default, but they are a weak group overall. The Cardinals do have a solid group of safeties, which is the strength of this defense, but overall their secondary is middling at best.

Grade: B-

Conclusion

The Cardinals were a much more competitive team down the stretch last season after Kyler Murray returned from injury and he should be healthier this season. The Cardinals also improved their roster around the quarterback this off-season and should have better health overall, after having the fifth most adjusted games lost to injury in the league last season. They should take a significant step forward in terms of win total after winning just four games a year ago. However, this team still has a lot of holes, especially on defense, and, as a result, they’re probably still not a legitimate contender for a playoff berth in the NFC and they’re probably still the worst team in an overall tough NFC West.

Update: The Cardinals’ already weak defense lost BJ Ojulari for the season due to injury and will be without Darius Robinson for the start of the season with an injury of his own. Their offense should continue their solid play from down the stretch in 2023, but their defense will prevent them from winning a lot of games, especially against one of the toughest schedules in the league.

Prediction: 5-12, 4th in NFC West

Quarterback

The Cardinals are just a season removed from a post-season appearance, securing a wild card spot in 2021 with a final record of 11-6. However, they were never as good as their record suggested that year, benefiting significantly from a +12 turnover margin (4th best in the NFL), which is not predictive year-to-year, and ranking just 15th in DVOA. That suggested the Cardinals would decline in the win column in 2022, especially when you also take into account all of the Cardinals’ off-season losses and the fact that many of their key players were on the wrong side of 30 and, as a result, were strong candidates to decline significantly. However, things were even worse than expected for the Cardinals last season, as they had a rash of injuries, 4th most in the league in terms of adjusted games lost, leading to the Cardinals being one of the worst teams in the league, finishing at 4-13 and ranking 29th in DVOA.

The Cardinals will probably be healthier this season in terms of the overall amount of games lost to injury, but they were a mediocre team that was likely to decline significantly last season even before all of the injury absences, they suffered even more personnel losses this off-season, and several of their key injured players from a year ago could miss the start of the season or not be at 100% in their first season back, most notably Kyler Murray, who went down with a torn ACL in week 14, putting him up against the clock to return for week 1, which will be less than 9 months after the injury.

For the Cardinals to have any chance of being remotely competitive this season, they will need Murray to return early in the season and not be limited, but that seems unlikely, especially considering how much he depends on his athleticism and running ability, which might not return to full strength right away. On top of that, even before the injury last season, Murray was not at his best, finishing with a 67.1 PFF grade that was his lowest since his rookie season in 2019, after back-to-back seasons over 80 in 2020 (82.8) and 2021 (84.0). 

After completing 68.1% of his passes for an average of 7.47 YPA, 50 touchdowns, and 22 interceptions with 1242 yards and 16 touchdowns on 221 carries (5.62 YPC) in 2020 and 2021 combined, Murray saw those numbers drop to 66.4% completion, 6.07 YPA, 14 touchdowns, and 7 interceptions with 418 yards and 3 touchdowns on 67 carries (6.24 YPC) in 2022. Those big seasons in 2020 and 2021 led to the Cardinals extending Murray last off-season on a 5-year, 230.5 million dollar deal that makes him the 5th highest paid quarterback in the league in average annual salary. 

Murray is still only in his age 26 season and could bounce back to his best form someday and be worth that extension, which doesn’t even technically start until next season, but it seems unlikely that bounce back will happen this season, a big problem for a team that has had a lot of trouble keeping talent around Murray and his big salary. The Cardinals also didn’t really do much to address the backup quarterback position, even with Murray likely to miss at least some time early in the year, only adding veteran journeyman Jeff Driskel and 5th round rookie Clayton Tune to compete with incumbent backups Colt McCoy and David Blough.

McCoy is likely to stay in the primary backup role, which he’s served in the past two seasons as well. He was impressive with a 101.4 QB rating on 99 attempts as Murray’s backup in 2021, but that fell to a 76.6 QB rating on 132 attempts in 2022 and he now heads into his age 37 season with a career QB rating of 79.9 on 1,220 attempts (36 starts). He’s not a bad backup and he’s probably the best option the Cardinals have, but he would likely struggle if forced into significant action again. 

Driskel and Blough, meanwhile, have career QB ratings of 80.5 on 365 pass attempts and 67.1 on 242 pass attempts respectively, while Tune would almost definitely struggle if forced into significant rookie year action. It will most likely be McCoy, but whoever starts in Murray’s absence early in the year is likely to struggle, and then when Murray returns he is unlikely to be at his best. Murray has a high upside, but this isn’t an enviable quarterback situation at the moment.

Grade: B-

Receiving Corps

Probably the Cardinals’ biggest off-season loss was top wide receiver DeAndre Hopkins. He only played in 9 games last season due to suspension, but averaged 1.98 yards per route run and had a 64/717/3 slash line that extrapolated to 121/1354/6 over 17 games. Despite that, it made some sense for the rebuilding Cardinals to look into moving Hopkins this off-season, as he was owed 19.45 million for his age 31 season in 2023, but it was a surprise that the Cardinals couldn’t get anything for him in a trade and it seems like their decision to cut him just to get out of his salary had more to do with Hopkins not wanting to be there anymore than it did with the Cardinals feeling it was in the best interest of their football team to move on from him.

The Cardinals also lost veteran AJ Green to retirement this off-season and, while he only played 554 snaps and averaged just 0.65 yards per route run, his departure just leaves the Cardinals even thinner at the wide receiver position. Without Hopkins and Green, the Cardinals will hope for healthier seasons from Marquise Brown (782 snaps in 12 games) and Rondale Moore (458 snaps in 8 games), while Greg Dotrch (512 snaps in 16 games) competes with 3rd round rookie Michael Wilson for the 3rd receiver job.

The Cardinals surrendered a first round pick to acquire Brown last off-season, swapping the 23rd pick to Baltimore for Brown and the 100th pick, implying they view him as a #1 wide receiver, but he hasn’t consistently shown that type of ability in four seasons in the league. He has averaged just 1.63 yards per route run, with his season high of 1.81 yards per route run coming back in his rookie season in 2019, and his career low 1.44 yards per route run coming in his first season in Arizona in 2022, when he had a 67/709/3 slash line on 107 targets (6.63 yards per target) in 12 games.

Brown is a former first round pick who is only in his age 26 season, so he still could get better going forward, but he’s running out of time to develop into a true #1 wide receiver, after being more of a low end #1/high end #2 throughout his career. It’ll be interesting to see what the Cardinals do with his contract, with Brown going into the final year of his rookie deal and likely expecting a top of the market deal, given that the Cardinals traded a first round pick for him and now have money freed up from releasing Hopkins. The Cardinals might not have a choice but to double down on their decision to give up a first round pick for him by giving him a top of market deal, given the lack of other promising young players on this roster to give their money to.

Rondale Moore, meanwhile, is a former 2021 second round pick who is expected to be the #2 receiver. He essentially served in that role last season before getting hurt, as his healthy stint last season coincided with Hopkins suspension. Moore had a decent 41/414/1 slash line in 8 games, but averaged just 1.47 yards per route run, down from 1.64 yards per route run in a more limited role as a rookie. Moore is still only going into his age 23 season and has the upside to take a step forward in his third season in the league, so if he can stay healthy, he could be a solid #2 receiver, but he could also remain middling at best or get hurt again.

Greg Dortch is probably the favorite for the #3 receiver job, but he’s a pretty underwhelming option, as the 2019 undrafted free agent averaged just 1.33 yards per route run in a part-time role last season, in the first significant action of his career. It wouldn’t be a surprise at all if the rookie Michael Wilson overtakes him for the job by mid-season, though Wilson would likely have growing pains and his own struggles if forced into a significant role in year one. Wilson could also find his way into a significant role if injuries strike ahead of him on the depth chart, with the only experienced reserve option on the team being Zach Pascal, who has averaged just 1.13 yards per route run in six seasons in the league.

At tight end, the Cardinals will get Zach Ertz back from injury at some point, after a torn ACL ended his 2022 season in week 10, but he also might not be ready for the start of the season and, even if he is, he could easily not be at his best, especially given that he is now heading into his age 33 season. Ertz already seemed to be slowing down even before the injury, averaging just 1.20 yards per route run over the past three seasons, including just 1.08 in 2022 before getting hurt, down from 1.83 in his first seven years in the league, and it wouldn’t be a surprise if he continued declining further. Never a great run blocker, if Ertz declines further as a pass catcher, he would probably become a liability for this team. 

The Cardinals used a 2nd round pick in the 2022 NFL Draft on Trey McBride, likely as a future replacement for Ertz, but he struggled as a rookie, averaging just 0.84 yards per route run, struggling as a run blocker, and doing minimal with his opportunity in Ertz’s absence (26/241/1 on 36 targets in 8 games without Ertz). He has a good chance to take a step forward in year two in 2023 and, even when Ertz is active, McBride will likely play more than a typical #2 tight end would, but he has a long way to go to become even a starting caliber tight end. This is an underwhelming receiving corps.

Grade: C+

Offensive Line

Along with DeAndre Hopkins, AJ Green, and Zach Ertz, the Cardinals also had a trio of week 1 starters on the offensive line who were over 30 last season, left guard Justin Pugh, center Rodney Hudson, and right tackle Kelvin Beachum. Pugh and Hudson were limited to 263 snaps and 303 snaps respectively by injury and are no longer with the team in 2023, while Beachum remains and now left tackle DJ Humphries heads into his age 30 season, on an offensive line that still has a lot of problems.

The Cardinals at least used a first round pick on Ohio State’s Paris Johnson to replace Justin Pugh at left guard and he figures to be an immediate upgrade, with Pugh posting a middling 61.0 grade before getting hurt last year and his primary replacement Max Garcia finishing at 54.5. Johnson also has the versatility to kick outside to either tackle spot if needed, which could ultimately be his long-term position. The Cardinals also signed veteran journeyman Elijah Wilkinson in free agency to give them some much needed depth at guard with Max Garcia also no longer on the team. Wilkinson is unspectacular, but he’s made 36 starts in 6 seasons in the league and is not bad depth, with grades in the 50s and 60s from PFF in every season in the league.

At center, on the other hand, the Cardinals don’t have an obvious starter, not only losing Hudson this off-season, but not retaining the players who started in Hudson’s absence last season, Sean Harlow and Billy Price, who struggled mightily anyway. To replace them, the Cardinals gave a 2-year, 4.6 million dollar deal to Hjalte Froholdt, a 2019 4th round pick who made the first 6 starts of his career last season, performing alright (61.4 PFF grade), but not well enough to suggest he should be locked in as a season long starter. The Cardinals might not have a choice but to use him in that role though, with their next best options being Leticus Smith, a 2022 6th round pick who struggled mightily on 210 snaps at guard as a rookie, and Jon Gaines, a 4th round rookie out of UCLA who would also be converting from guard. Center figures to be a position of weakness for this team again in 2023.

Humphries is also coming off of an injury plagued season, limited to 575 snaps in 8 games, and now returns to his age 30 season, which means he could be on the decline. He also has a pretty extensive injury history, playing fewer than nine games in half of his eight seasons in the league, with 47 total games missed. The Cardinals didn’t really miss Humphries much last season, as swing tackle Josh Jones had a 75.8 PFF grade in 9 starts in his absence, but Jones had a 46.7 PFF grade in 12 starts in 2021 in the only other extended starting experience of his career and, while the 2020 3rd round pick could have turned a corner and, as a result, will easily remain a solid starter if forced back into action, the Cardinals are still happy to have Humphries back. Humphries has finished above 70 on PFF in four of the past six seasons, including 72.3 last season, maxing out at 88.3 in 2020, so, even if he does decline, he should remain at least a solid starter, though one who would easily miss more time with injury, given his history. 

Right tackle Kelvin Beachum could also decline this season, as he is even older than Humphries, going into his age 34 season, but he hasn’t shown any signs of decline yet, finishing above 60 on PFF yet again last season, like he had in each of his first 10 seasons in the league prior to last season. In fact, his 70.6 PFF grade last season was actually his highest since the 2014 season. He probably won’t be quite as good again in 2023, but he could still remain at least a capable starter, assuming his abilities don’t drop off completely. 

Right guard Will Hernandez is the only returning starter who isn’t going into his age 30 season or older. He re-signed on a 2-year, 9 million dollar deal with the Cardinals this off-season, after signing a one-year deal to come over from the Giants last off-season and posting a 65.4 PFF grade in his first season in Arizona in 2022. That’s around how he’s played throughout his career, mostly being a middling starter, making 69 starts and receiving a PFF grade in the 50s or 60s in all five seasons in the league. Still only in his age 28 season, I would expect more of the same from Hernandez in 2023. He’s a decent starter on an offensive line with a lot of questions.

Grade: B-

Running Backs

Lead back James Conner returns, but they have a serious depth problem behind him, which is a problem because Conner has missed at least two games in all six seasons in the league, missing 20 games total. Conner has averaged 13.8 carries per game over the past five seasons with a 4.17 YPC and 44 touchdowns, but that’s not an overly impressive average and Cardinals may need even more carries than that from him this season, given their lack of depth, which could wear him down and make him less effective. Conner also figures to have a big role in the passing game, after catching 207 passes in 64 games in the past five seasons, with a 1.18 yards per route run average, unspectacular, but decent for a running back. The Cardinals will be counting on Conner for a lot this season.

Behind Conner on the depth chart, the Cardinals have career journeyman and special teamer Corey Clement, who has never surpassed 90 touches in a season in six seasons in the league, 2022 6th round pick Keaontay Ingram, who saw just 31 touches as a rookie, 2020 undrafted free agent Ty’Son Williams, who has 45 career touches, and undrafted rookie Emari Demercado. Any of them could wind up as the #2 back behind Conner and, while Conner figures to be the feature back, they will need at least a few carries per game from a backup running back and, if Conner’s injury history is any indication, one of these guys is likely going to have to start at some point this season. Conner is a solid starter, but he’s an unspectacular one and injury prone one and the Cardinals’ depth situation behind him is as bad as any team in the league.

Grade: B-

Interior Defenders

The Cardinals also lost key players on defense this off-season, including interior defenders JJ Watt and Zach Allen, the former of whom retired ahead of what would have been his age 34 season, despite still posting a 68.3 PFF grade on 816 snaps last season, while the latter also impressed with a 72.7 grade on 660 snaps last season and, as a result, ended up signing with the Broncos on a 3-year, 45.75 million dollar deal as a free agent. The Cardinals do still have Jeremiah Ledbetter (275 snaps) and Leki Fotu (499 snaps), but they struggled last season with PFF grades of 43.4 and 32.4 respectively.

The Cardinals will also be hoping for more from Rashard Lawrence, a 2020 4th round pick who was playing a significant role for the first time in his career when he went down for the season last year (112 snaps in 5 games), and they signed veterans Carlos Watkins and LJ Collier to cheap one-year deals. Ledbetter, Fotu, Lawrence, Watkins, and Collier will all compete for playing time, but all seem like very underwhelming options. Jonathan Ledbetter went undrafted in 2019 and had played just 61 defensive snaps in his career prior to struggling in a limited role last season. Leki Fotu was a 4th round pick in 2020, but has received a PFF grade of 41 or lower in all three seasons in the league, on an average of 385 snaps per season. 

Lawrence barely played in his first two seasons in the league, seeing 385 nondescript snaps total, before continuing his nondescript play into a slightly larger per game role last season prior to injury. Carlos Watkins is a 6-year veteran who has mostly been a mediocre rotational player in his career, maxing out at 542 snaps in a season (2020) and a 60.8 PFF grade (2021), and is now going into his age 30 season. LJ Collier was a first round pick by the Seahawks in 2019, but proved to be a massive bust, finishing below 60 on PFF in all four seasons in the league, on an average of just 270 snaps per season, and is already in his age 28 season, so he’s unlikely to get significantly better going forward. This is a very weak position group with no clear starting caliber players.

Grade: C-

Edge Defenders

The Cardinals’ top edge defender a year ago, Markus Golden (781 snaps) is another pretty key player who was on the wrong side of 30 last season and is no longer with the team, a pretty big loss as he had a decent 65.3 PFF grade across a large snap count. To replace him, the Cardinals used a 2nd round pick on LSU’s BJ Ojulari and will give larger roles to a pair of 2022 3rd round picks, Cameron Thomas and Myjai Sanders. Thomas was the better of the two as rookies, with a 69.9 PFF grade on 237 snaps and a 12.3% pressure rate, as opposed to 260 and a 10.1% pressure rate for Sanders, but both have the upside to develop into solid starters and both could take a step forward in year two in a bigger role. 

The Cardinals also still have Dennis Gardeck, a career special teamer who has been decent on snap counts of 210 and 173 over the past two seasons, in the first even somewhat significant defensive action of the 2018 undrafted free agent’s career, and Victor Dimukeje, a 2021 6th round pick who was underwhelming with a 57.0 grade on 251 snaps in the first somewhat significant action of his career in 2023. This is a very thin and inexperienced position group, but they at least have a few young players with some upside, even if it’s unlikely all three will make good on that upside this season.

Grade: C+

Linebackers

The Cardinals didn’t make a lot of additions this off-season, but they did add free agent linebacker Kyzir White on a 2-year, 10 million dollar deal. White has posted grades of 66.5 and 65.0 on PFF over the past two seasons with the Chargers and Eagles as more or less an every down player, playing all possible 34 games and averaging 53.6 snaps played per game, holding up against the run and in coverage, and he’s needed in Arizona because the Cardinals no longer have Ben Niemann (484 snaps) and Tanner Vallejo (282 snaps), who saw roles at linebacker last season, while hybrid defensive back/linebacker Isaiah Simmons is expected to move to defensive back full-time, leaving the Cardinals in need of another every down linebacker next to holdover Zaven Collins (1,025 snaps), which White will be.

Collins wasn’t as good as White last season, but the 2021 1st round pick wasn’t too bad in the first starting action of his career (59.8 PFF grade), after flashing potential with a 69.3 grade on 220 snaps as a rookie, and could still get better in year three, only his age 24 season. He and White should be a decent every down starting linebacker duo, but depth is a big concern, with special teamer Ezekiel Turner (144 career defensive snaps in five seasons in the league) and 5th round rookie Owen Pappoe likely to be their top reserves. That hurts their overall grade at this position, as they would likely have a big liability in the starting lineup if either White or Collins got hurt.

Grade: B-

Secondary

Perhaps part of the reason the Cardinals are moving Isaiah Simmons to defensive back full-time is because the Cardinals have a big need at the cornerback position, where Simmons can man the slot. Byron Murphy was their top cornerback a year ago and, even though he was limited to 595 snaps in 9 games by injury, he will be missed because his 66.7 PFF grade made him one of just three Cardinals to see any action at cornerback and finish above 60 on PFF, with the other two being Simmons and Antonio Hamilton, who only played 420 snaps, making 5 starts.

Hamilton will get the first chance at replacing Murphy, but the 420 snaps he played last season were a career high and, while he’s been decent in limited action, he’s also already going into his age 30 season and could easily struggle in his first season as a full-time starter. He would start next to Marco Wilson, who has started 26 of 28 games played over the past two seasons, with an average of 54.5 snaps played per game, but the 2021 5th round pick has struggled with grades of 52.9 and 55.3 and he is no guarantee to be any better in his 2023, even if he does have the potential to take at least somewhat of a step forward in year three.

The Cardinals also signed veteran Rashad Fenton in free agency. A 6th round pick by the Chiefs in 2019, Fenton flashed a lot of potential as a part-time player in his first three seasons in the league, but struggled as a starter in the first half of the 2022 season, before getting benched and traded to the Falcons, with whom he barely played. Fenton is only going into his age 26 season and has some bounce back potential, but he’s never played more than 531 snaps in a season and might be overstretched as a full-time starter. He’ll be in the mix for a starting role, as will 3rd round rookie Garrett Williams, while 6th round rookie Kei’Trel Clark and 2022 7th round pick Christian Mathew, who struggled on 237 rookie year snaps in 2022, will compete for deep reserve roles.

As the slot cornerback, Isaiah Simmons might be the best player the Cardinals have at the cornerback position. He hasn’t lived up to the billing as the 8th overall pick in the 2020 NFL Draft, a freakishly athletic, versatile prospect with a sky high ceiling, as he struggled in his first two seasons in the league as primarily a linebacker, receiving a 59.9 PFF grade on 376 snaps as rookie and 51.0 on 1,005 snaps in his second season in 2021. However, he fared better in 2022 when he played more cornerback, receiving a 67.9 grade from PFF on 897 snaps, including a 69.9 coverage grade, and, still only in his age 25 season, it wouldn’t be a surprise to see him take another step forward now as a full-time defensive back. Even if he’s not worth where he was drafted, he could still be an above average slot cornerback, which will be useful for this defense.

Simmons could also see some action at safety, where he would also seem to be a fit, but he hasn’t played there a lot in his career and that’s one position where the Cardinals are in pretty good shape, with Budda Baker and Jalen Thompson returning as starters. Baker was a 2nd round pick by the Cardinals in 2017 and he has been an above average starter for most of his career, taking over the starting job in his second season in the league and finishing above 60 on PFF in all six seasons in the league, including four seasons over 70, with just five total games missed due to injury. Still only in his age 27 season, I would expect more of the same from him in 2023.

Thompson, meanwhile, was a 4th round supplemental pick in 2019 and, after flashing potential with a 64.4 PFF grade on 607 snaps as a rookie, Thompson became a starter in year two and has started 33 of the 39 games he’s played over the past three seasons, while receiving PFF grades of 70.1, 68.2, and 65.0. Still only going into his age 25, Thompson could still have further untapped potential and, even if he doesn’t, he has a good chance to remain an above average starter. The Cardinals have paid up to keep their safeties, with Thompson on a 3-year, 36 million dollar deal and Baker getting extra money tacked on to what was originally a 4-year, 59 million dollar deal after threatening a holdout this off-season. They might be a little overpaid, but they are the strength of a weak secondary and a weak defense overall.

Grade: B-

Conclusion

Despite coming off of a playoff appearance, the Cardinals were a below average team going into last season, relying on their +12 turnover margin to qualify for the post-season the year prior, losing several key players in the off-season, and having multiple key players who were over the age of 30 and who, as a result, were prime candidates to decline. Things then went from bad to worse for the Cardinals when they had the 4th most adjusted games lost to injury in the league last season, leading to a 4-13 record. They should be healthier this season by default, but they still have several key players who are coming off of serious injuries who might not be ready for the start of the season and/or may not be the same upon their return, including quarterback Kyler Murray.

On top of that, the Cardinals lost even more key players this off-season, with several of their key players over the age of 30 moving on, including DeAndre Hopkins, JJ Watt, and Markus Golden, as well as promising young free agents in Byron Murphy and Zach Allen, without the Cardinals really adding comparable replacements. All in all, this looks likely to be one of the worst teams in the league again this season and probably the single worst team in the league until Murray returns and somewhat resembles himself, which probably won’t be in week 1. I will have a final prediction at the end of the off-season when all previews are completed.

Prediction: 2-15, 4th in NFC West