Quarterback

In 2023, the Chargers were a pass heavy team, ranking 3rd in pass attempts and 24th in rush attempts, with a poor defense, ranking 26th in yards per play allowed and 18th in first down rate allowed, and a poor offensive line, ranking 13th in PFF pass blocking and 32nd in PFF run blocking grade. They subsequently brought in Jim Harbaugh as their new head coach and he transformed the team immediately. In 2024, they ranked 28th in pass attempts, 12th in rush attempts, 13th in yards per play allowed, 4th in first down rate allowed, 8th in PFF pass blocking grade, and 21st in run blocking grade, a remarkable transformation in just one year.

Most importantly, the Chargers went from a 5-12 record in 2023 to a 11-6 record in 2024, while making a surprise playoff appearance. Perhaps most impressive, the Chargers made this transformation with little financial flexibility. The Chargers had to cut their top-2 wide receivers Keenan Allen and Mike Williams last off-season just to get under the cap and didn’t make a single external free agent signing of more than 5 million annually. The numerous career best years the Chargers got out of cheap signings, as well as the impact of their rookie class, are a testament to the coaching job of Harbaugh and his staff.

Going into 2025, there are some concerns. For one, one aspect where the Chargers’ improved drastically last season is unlikely to continue, as the Chargers ranked tied for third in the NFL with a +12 turnover margin, which is one of the most volatile year-to-year stats. In terms of first down rate and yards per play differential, which are more predictive, the Chargers were not as good as their record, ranking 11th at +1.12% and 16th at +0.10 respectively, particularly underwhelming on offense, where they ranked 18th in first down rate and 16th in yards per play. 

On top of that, many of the signings the Chargers made last off-season were one-year deals and many of those players were not retained this off-season, while minimal money was spent to replace them this off-season, particularly on defense. Already ranked just 24th in average annual value of their roster last season, the Chargers fell to 30th this off-season and that is a metric that is highly correlated with winning percentage. Harbaugh and his staff are as qualified as anyone to get the most out of their players, but, at least on paper, this roster doesn’t look as good now as it did a year ago. The Chargers will also face a tougher schedule in 2025, as they ranked 30th in opponents’ record last season and now are projected to rank 12th this season.

One important constant in all of the Chargers’ changes over the past two off-seasons has been quarterback Justin Herbert. Herbert seemed to benefit from the Chargers’ change in offensive philosophy under Harbaugh, which had him go from 39.1 pass attempts per game in his first four seasons in the league to just 29.4 pass attempts per game last season. Despite the loss of his top-2 wide receivers last off-season and an underwhelming receiving corps overall, Herbert set a new career high in yards per attempt last season at 7.68 and a new career high in touchdown to interception ratio at 23/3, while completing 65.9% of his passes, in line with his career average. Herbert also set new career highs in rush attempts at 69 and rushing yards at 306. His interception rate is highly unlikely to stay as low again in 2025, just given the inherent volatility of that metric, but the rest of his stats have a good chance to remain about the same. 

Herbert made it through last season without missing any starts, but he has missed time in two of his five seasons in the league. If he misses time in 2025, he will either be replaced by Taylor Heinicke, a low upside career backup in his age 32 season with a 84.1 QB rating in 29 starts in ten seasons in the league, or Trey Lance, a former #3 overall pick and massive bust who has made just five starts and has just a 80.3 QB rating in four seasons in the league, but who is still only going into his age 25 season and who at least still has theoretical upside as a backup. Whoever wins the backup job will obviously be a big downgrade from Herbert, an above average starting quarterback who seems to thrive in the Chargers’ new offensive system.

Grade: A-

Running Backs

One key addition from last off-season who was not retained this off-season is running back JK Dobbins, who rushed for 4.64 YPC on 195 carries last season. Dobbins had always had talent, as the 2020 2nd round pick averaged 5.76 YPC in his first four seasons in the league, but injuries limited him to just 234 carries in 24 games in those four seasons. In 2024, Dobbins still missed four games with injury, but he was much healthier than he had been in the past and was able to show his talent as a result. 

To replace Dobbins, the Chargers initially signed Najee Harris, who is essentially the opposite of Dobbins. While Dobbins has just 429 carries in five seasons in the league, with 47 total games missed, Harris hasn’t missed a game in four seasons in the league, while totaling 1,097 carries over that stretch. Additionally, while Dobbins has 37.9% of his career rushing yards on runs of 15+ yards, of which he has 31 on 429 career carries, Harris has just 20.2% of his career rushing yards on carries of that length, with just 41 carries of that length on 1,097 career carries.

Harris has a career 3.93 YPC and a career 46.4% success rate, while Dobbins has a career 5.25 YPC and a career 50.3% success rate, so he would have likely been a downgrade from Dobbins, but fortunately the Chargers also used their first round pick on running back Omarion Hampton. Harris got a 1-year, 5.25 million dollar deal, so he will probably at least split carries with Hampton to start the season, but Hampton figures to be the more effective back and it’s not hard to imagine he will be the clear lead back by the end of the season. Hampton also has more upside in passing situations than Harris, who has averaged just 0.97 yards per route run in his career.

In addition to Dobbins being gone, the Chargers also didn’t bring back Gus Edwards, which isn’t a huge loss, as he averaged 3.61 yards per carry and had a 49.5% carry success rate last season. The Chargers’ top returning running back is last year’s #3 back Kimani Vidal. He averaged just 3.60 YPC on 43 carries, with 0.74 yards per route run on 84 routes run, but the 2024 6th round pick could take a step forward in his second season in the league and, even if he doesn’t, the Chargers won’t need him for a big role unless both of their top-2 backs go down. Harris and Hampton figure to get the vast majority of the carries when both are healthy and, if one goes down, the other figures to take over as the feature back, leaving Vidal to sprinkle in for a few touches here and there. This backfield has upside, led by first round pick rookie Omarion Hampton. 

Grade: B+

Receiving Corps

One of the players who significantly exceeded expectations last season was second round rookie Ladd McConkey, who finished the season with a 82/1149/7 slash line on 112 targets, while averaging 2.38 yards per route run, 9th best among eligible wide receivers. He could easily repeat or exceed that production in his second season in the league in 2025. The rest of this receiving corps was an issue last season though and could remain one this season. 

Quentin Johnston was the de facto #2 receiver last season, finishing the season with a 55/711/8 slash line on 91 targets and 1.77 yards per route run. That was a huge step forward from his rookie season, when the 2023 1st round pick looked like a bust, with a 38/431/2 slash line on 67 targets and 0.88 yards per route run. His numbers last season weren’t bad, but he was mostly the beneficiary of playing a significant role with a good quarterback, rather than actually playing well himself. He still hasn’t lived up to his draft slot, but he’s only going into his age 24 season and could take another step forward in his third season in the league in 2025, though that’s obviously not a guarantee.

Johnston isn’t even guaranteed a starting role. Joshua Palmer, their de facto #3 receiver last season, is gone, after a mediocre season with a 39/584/1 slash line on 65 targets and 1.49 yards per route run, but the Chargers added Tre Harris in the second round of the draft and brought back veteran Mike Williams after he didn’t pan out last season between two teams with the Jets and Steelers. Harris, Williams, and Johnston will compete to be the #2 and #3 receivers after McConkey, who is locked in as the #1. 

Mike Williams had 1000+ yard seasons in 2019 and 2021 and had a 63/895/4 slash line and 1.93 yards per route run as recently as 2022, but he tore his ACL three games into the 2023 season and did not appear to be the same in 2024, managing just a 21/298/1 slash line and 0.87 yards per route run. He could bounce back in 2025 another year removed from his injury, in a better offense, back with his old team, but he’s also going into his age 31 season, so his best days are almost definitely behind him. In an ideal situation, the younger, higher upside Johnston and Harris would beat out Williams, leaving him as a reserve option. 

The tight end position was even a bigger concern than wide receiver last season, especially given how much Jim Harbaugh and offensive coordinator Greg Roman have historically used the tight end position in their offense. Because of that, it is surprising they didn’t do anything to add to the position aside from signing veteran Tyler Conklin, who has a career 1.12 yards per route run average and is now going into his age 30 season, and using a 5th round pick on Oronde Gadsden, who is highly unlikely to contribute in a significant way as a rookie. 

Will Dissly remains the starter, after a 2024 season in which he had a 50/481/2 slash line on 64 targets and averaged 1.65 yards per route run, solid numbers, but mostly the product of playing a significant role in a good passing game, rather than anything Dissly did well himself. His career 1.49 yards per route run average is not bad, but last season was the first of his 7-year career in which he played more than a part-time role and, aside from last season, his career high in receiving yardage is 349. This isn’t a bad receiving corps, but aside from Ladd McConkey, the rest of this group is a marginal bunch who doesn’t move the needle and just benefits from playing with a high level quarterback.

Grade: B

Offensive Line

As I mentioned, the Chargers’ offensive line improved significantly from 2023 to 2024. The biggest reason for that was the addition of right tackle Joe Alt, who they selected 5th overall in the 2024 NFL Draft. Alt immediately lived up to his draft slot, finishing his rookie season with a 77.6 PFF grade in 16 starts. He looks likely to develop into one of the best offensive linemen in the league for years to come and, while development isn’t always linear, he could easily take another step forward in 2025.

Opposite Joe Alt at left tackle, the Chargers have another former first round pick, RaShawn Slater, who was selected 13th overall in 2021, and he had a career best year in 2024, finishing second among offensive tackles on PFF with a 91.1 grade. That wasn’t out of nowhere though, as he finished with PFF grades of 83.6, 84.0, and 76.6 in his first three seasons in the league prior to last season. He might not be quite as good in 2025, but he’s still only in his age 26 season and looks likely to remain one of the best left tackles in the league for years to come.

The Chargers also made a big addition on the offensive line this off-season, signing Mekhi Becton to a 2-year, 20 million dollar deal. Becton is only going into his age 26 season, had a 75.3 PFF grade in 15 starts with the Eagles last season, and is a former first round pick, selected 11th overall in 2020 by the Jets, but he comes with some risk. Becton entered the league as a tackle and had a 74.4 PFF grade in 13 starts as a rookie, but injuries limited him to 48 snaps total over the next two seasons and he struggled upon his return in 2023, with a 53.2 PFF grade in 16 starts, before having his career saved when he signed with the Eagles last off-season and moved to right guard. It’s possible Becton could repeat his 2025 season away from the Eagles, but that’s far from a guarantee.

Becton will replace Trey Pipkins at right guard and it’s likely Pipkins will head to the bench, but it’s also possible Pipkins moves to left guard and incumbent left guard Zion Johnson moves to center, sending incumbent center Bradley Bozeman to the bench. Bozeman had a decent 61.2 PFF grade in 17 starts last season and has finished above 60 on PFF in six straight seasons, while making 93 starts over that stretch, but last season was his worst PFF grade since his rookie season in 2018 and now he’s going into his age 31 season and could decline further. He’s been better in his career than Pipkins, who has PFF grades of 59.2, 62.8, and 57.8 in the past three seasons, his only three seasons as a regular starter, but Pipkins is only in his age 29 season and it’s possible he’d be a better starter in 2025 than Bozeman would. 

Zion Johnson is also a former first round pick, selected 17th overall in 2022, but he hasn’t lived up to the billing, receiving PFF grades of 64.8, 57.6, and 65.7 in three seasons in the league. He’s still only going into his age 26 season and last season was the best of his career, but it’s still unclear if he can ever develop into anything more than a decent starter. A move further inside to center could jumpstart his career, but he could also struggle to adapt to his new position. Most likely, he’ll remain at guard with Bozeman at center and Pipkins going to the bench, but that remains to be decided.

Along with either Bozeman or Pipkins, who can also play tackle, the Chargers also have Jamaree Salyer as a reserve option and he can also play both guard and tackle. The 2022 6th round pick exceeded expectations as a rookie with a 69.2 PFF grade in 14 starts at tackle, as an injury replacement for Slater, but he declined to a 54.2 PFF grade in 17 starts at guard in 2023 and was limited to 339 snaps and 4 starts in 2024 and again struggled with a 57.6 PFF grade, mostly playing guard, but also seeing some action at tackle. He’s not a bad reserve, but he probably won’t be the first one off the bench this season, with either Bozeman or Pipkins being sent to the bench. Overall, this is an above average offensive line, improved by the addition of Mekhi Becton.

Grade: A-

Interior Defenders

While the Chargers’ offense looks likely to be comparably good to last season, if not better, their defense lost some key players who were not retained. Perhaps the most important of these players was interior defender Poona Ford, who ranked 5th among interior defenders with a 85.1 PFF grade across 604 snaps last season. The Chargers also lost Morgan Fox, not nearly as big of a loss, but he did play 577 snaps and, while he struggled against the run, he at least contributed as a pass rusher with 3.5 sacks, 2 hits, and a 7.6% pressure rate.

To attempt to replace Ford and Fox, the Chargers signed Da’Shawn Hand and Naquan Jones and used a third round pick on Jamaree Caldwell. Hand showed a lot of potential early in his career, with a 85.2 PFF grade across 455 snaps in 13 games as a rookie in 2018, but injuries limited him to 558 total snaps in 16 games from 2019 to 2022. He played a then career high 16 games in 2023 and once again flashed potential with a 85.0 PFF grade, but that came across just 199 snaps and he couldn’t continue that in 2024, while setting new career highs in games (17) and snaps (564), as he finished last season with just a 60.5 PFF grade. Now going into his age 30 season, he has likely run out of time to make good on his potential and, in a best case scenario, he can be a solid rotational player if healthy.

Naquan Jones, meanwhile, has played just 229 snaps per season in four seasons in the league, while finishing below 60 in three of those seasons, though he did have a career best 63.2 PFF grade across 260 snaps last season. Still, he looks like an underwhelming rotational option. He could easily be behind the rookie Caldwell on the depth chart. Caldwell has the tools to be a future starter, but he could prove to be raw and struggle as a rookie. 

The newcomers will rotate with top holdovers Otito Ogbonnia (506 snaps) and Teair Tart (349 snaps). Ogbonnia struggled with a 40.0 PFF grade, which is what he has done throughout his three seasons in the league, as the 2022 5th round received PFF grades of 43.2 and 50.4 respectively across snap counts of 138 and 233 in his first two seasons in the league. He figures to continue struggling in 2025. Tart, on the other hand, was impressive, albeit in limited action, with a 76.9 PFF grade. He’s been pretty inconsistent in his career though, finishing above 70 on PFF twice, but below 60 three times, on an average of 349 snaps per season in five seasons in the league. He could easily regress in 2025. With Ford gone and Tart a regression candidate, this position group looks very underwhelming.

Grade: B-

Edge Defenders

The Chargers also lost Joey Bosa this off-season, which would have been a huge deal a couple seasons ago, but Bosa looked like a shell of his former Pro-Bowl self in 2024, finishing with a 63.9 PFF grade across 457 snaps. The Chargers only replaced him with a 4th round pick Kyle Kennard though and he figures to be a downgrade even from the 2024 version of Bosa. A bigger concern is that the Chargers’ top edge defender Khalil Mack is going into his age 34 season and could decline significantly, after finishing 2024 with a 90.4 PFF grade across 617 snaps. That was his seventh season above 90 in eleven seasons in the league and his ninth over 80, but his age is becoming a big concern and, even if he only declines to an above average starter, rather than an elite one, that would have a noticeable impact on this defense.

Mack will continue starting opposite Tuli Tuipulotu, a 2023 2nd round pick who has been solid, but unspectacular through two seasons in the league, with PFF grades of 71.0 and 66.6 across snap counts of 852 and 734 respectively. He’s been at his best as a run defender, but also has 13 sacks, 19 hits, and a 10.8% pressure rate in 34 career games. Now going into his third season in the league and only his age 23 season, it wouldn’t be a surprise for Tuipulotu to have a career best year in 2025, though that’s not a guarantee and, even if he does, it might not be enough to compensate for any potential decline from Khalil Mack.

With Bosa gone, the Chargers could rely more on Bud Dupree, who was their top reserve last season with 547 snaps played. Unfortunately, Dupree struggled with a 47.1 PFF grade and is unlikely to be better in 2025. He was a solid player earlier in his career, but now has finished below 60 in four straight seasons and now he is heading into his age 32 season, so his best days are almost definitely behind him and he could easily continue struggling, especially in the likely scenario that he has to play a bigger role with Bosa gone. This isn’t a bad position group overall, but it’s likely to be worse than a year ago, with Bosa gone and Mack’s age being a big concern.

Grade: B

Linebackers

The Chargers’ linebacking corps was a solid group last season and they return all of their key players for 2025. Only one of those players was an every down player though, Daiyan Henley, who had a 70.2 PFF grade across 998 snaps. A third round pick in 2023, Henley only played 54 snaps as a rookie before breaking out in 2024, but he showed promise with a 69.9 PFF grade and it shouldn’t be a surprise if he remains an above average every down player in 2025 and beyond. 

Meanwhile, the Chargers’ next three linebackers in terms of snaps played were Denzel Perryman (340 snaps), Troy Dye (318 snaps), and Junior Colson (218 snaps). Perryman was their primary base package run stopping linebacker when on the field, but he missed six games, forcing Dye into that role, while Colson was a coverage specialist in sub packages. Perryman and Dye played decently, with PFF grades of 60.8 and 68.6 respectively, but Colson struggled with a 38.0 PFF grade.

Perryman and Dye might not be as good in 2025 though, Perryman because he is now going into his age 33 season and Dye because he’s a one-year wonder who only played 409 nondescript snaps in his first four seasons in the league prior to last season. Perryman will likely remain the starter in base packages and he’s finished above 60 in run defense grade in seven of ten seasons in the league, but his age is a concern, as is his injury history, as he’s missed a total of 45 games in ten seasons in the league. 

While Perryman is healthy, Dye figures to be a reserve, though Perryman does figure to miss some time due to injury. Colson, meanwhile, will likely remain a coverage specialist. He is a 2024 3rd round pick who could take a step forward in 2025, but even if he does, he has a long way to go until he’s even a decent contributor. The Chargers’ linebacking corps is questionable outside of Daiyan Henley, but Henley is an above average every down player and the rest of the group could form a useful rotation.

Grade: B

Secondary

The Chargers also lost cornerback Kristian Fulton this off-season. He was one of the cheap free agent signings the Chargers made last off-season who exceeded expectations, finishing with a 71.1 PFF grade across 760 snaps. He was replaced by Donte Jackson, who came over from the Steelers on a 2-year, 13 million dollar deal. He figures to be a downgrade. He’s had some solid seasons in his career, finishing above 60 on PFF in four of seven seasons in the league, but he struggled in the other three seasons, including a 50.0 PFF grade across 780 snaps in 2024 and now he’s going into his age 30 season and could easily continue struggling. 

Fortunately, Fulton wasn’t the only Chargers cornerback who exceeded expectations last season, as Tarheeb Still had a 74.1 PFF grade, despite being only a 5th round rookie. Still might not quite be as good in 2025, but he looks likely to at least be an above average cornerback for years to come, in spite of where he was drafted. The Chargers also got a surprisingly good year out of safety Elijah Molden, who had a 74.6 PFF grade across 761 snaps and was subsequently kept on a 3-year, 18.5 million dollar deal this off-season. 

Molden was originally added as a reserve, but original starter Alohi Gilman was limited to 658 snaps in 11 games by injuries, opening the door for Molden to start. Gilman also struggled last season with a 55.3 PFF grade, so there is a good chance Molden continues starting over him in 2024. Molden is a one-year wonder in terms of playing at the level he played at last season, receiving PFF grades of 64.1, 67.5, and 56.0 on snap counts of 632, 82, and 700 in his first three seasons in the league prior to last season, and he is coming off a major leg injury he suffered late last season, but the 2021 3rd round pick is only going into his age 26 season and could remain a solid starter, even if he isn’t quite as good as last season. Gilman, meanwhile, had a 86.1 PFF grade across 928 snaps in 2023, but that looks like a complete fluke, as the 2020 6th round pick has finished below 60 on PFF in each of his other four seasons in the league.

Along with Gilman, the Chargers’ biggest weakness in the secondary last season was the cornerback position behind Still and Fulton. Ja’Sir Taylor struggled with a 56.7 PFF grade across 353 snaps as a slot specialist, while Cam Hart also struggled with a 56.6 PFF grade across 460 snaps as the top reserve outside cornerback. Both are likely to struggle again this season. Taylor, a 2022 6th round pick, has maxed out with a PFF grade of 60.6 in three seasons in the league, while Hart is a 2024 5th round pick who isn’t necessarily going to be better in his second season in the league in 2025. 

The Chargers did add some depth cornerback options this off-season, signing Benjamin St-Juste and using a 6th round pick on RJ Mickens, but neither are likely to play well if called upon to play a significant role in 2025. While Mickens is just a late round pick, St-Juste has played 718 snaps per season in four seasons in the league since going in the 3rd round in 2021, but he has finished with PFF grades of 53.6, 58.3, 59.9, and 47.4. Even in a smaller role in 2025, he isn’t necessarily going to be better. The Chargers’ lack of depth at cornerback is even more concerning in 2025 than in 2024 because Donte Jackson is likely to be a significant downgrade from Kristian Fulton. 

The Chargers’ best defensive back last season was safety Derwin James, who finished with a 80.5 PFF grade across 986 snaps. James only had a 60.1 PFF grade across 1,001 snaps in 2023, but that looks like a fluke, as he’s finished above 75 in every other healthy season in his career. Availability has been a concern for him throughout his career though, as he’s missed 34 games in seven seasons in the league, while missing at least one game in each of those seven seasons. Still in his late prime in his age 29 season, James will likely continue playing at a high level in 2025, but he’s also likely to miss at least some time at some point. 

The Chargers’ safeties should be better in 2025 than 2024, with Elijah Molden likely to start over Alohi Gilman from the beginning of the season and Gilman potentially bouncing back somewhat to his 2023 form, but Molden is unlikely to be as good as he was last season, given his history, while Gilman’s 2023 is likely a fluke and he could easily continue struggling in 2025. Meanwhile, the Chargers’ cornerbacks are likely to be worse with Donte Jackson replacing Kristian Fulton. This isn’t a bad secondary, but overall it looks likely to be worse than a year ago.

Grade: B

Kicker

The Chargers for years used to have one of the shakiest kicker situations in the league, costing them numerous games, but midway through the 2022 season they signed rookie undrafted free agent Cameron Dicker, who proved to be a huge addition, as he’s led the league with 25.01 points above average over the past three seasons. In 2024, he ranked 4th in the league with 9.55 points above average. He should remain one of the best kickers in the league in 2025 and beyond.

Grade: A

Conclusion

The Chargers are unlikely to have the same +12 turnover margin they had last season, due to the volatility of that metric and they had some notable off-season losses, particularly on defense. However, they have some of the best coaching staffs in the league led by Jim Harbaugh and could easily get the most out of their talent again this season, so they should at least remain in contention for a playoff spot.

Update: The loss of Rashawn Slater for the season with injury is a huge blow to this team’s playoff chances.

Prediction: 8-9, 4th in AFC West

Quarterback

The Chargers transitioned perfectly at the quarterback position, going from 14 years of a future Hall of Fame quarterback Philip Rivers as their starter (2006-2019) to Justin Herbert, the 6th overall pick in the 2020 NFL Draft, who looks like he’s on a similar career track. The Chargers never made a Super Bowl with Rivers though, due to a variety of issues around the quarterback. The Chargers always had stars on both sides of the ball during Rivers’ career, but they struggled with injuries, a lack of depth when injuries struck, and coaching. Now four years into Herbert’s career, the Chargers have had similar issues, leading to Herbert going just 30-32 through four seasons with no playoff wins. 

Herbert hasn’t been the problem, completing 66.6% of his passes for an average of 7.11 YPA, 114 touchdowns, and 42 interceptions, while receiving PFF grades of 79.9, 90.0, 78.6, and 85.5, but they haven’t had the right supporting cast around him, nor have they had the right coach. Anthony Lynn was fired after Herbert’s rookie year and his replacement Brandon Staley was fired late last season, meaning the Chargers are going onto their third head coach of Herbert’s brief career, but fortunately they landed a great one in Jim Harbaugh, who went 44-19-1 in his first stint as an NFL head coach with the 49ers from 2011-2014 and who has a career 147-52 record at the collegiate level with a National Championship, consistently getting the most out of his players at every stop.

Harbaugh is the right man for the job, but it could be a couple years before he gets this team in contention. Not only is this team coming off of an underwhelming 5-12 season, but the Chargers had salary cap issues this off-season and had to part ways with several key players, while not having a lot of financial flexibility to replace them. Herbert is coming off of the worst statistical career of his career, completing 65.1% of his passes for an average of 6.87 YPA, 20 touchdowns, and 7 interceptions, but it wasn’t really his fault because the Chargers had a lot of issues around him on offense and he still finished 9th among quarterbacks in the league in terms of PFF grade.

Herbert also missed four games with injury last season and was replaced by Easton Stick, who lost all of those games, while completing 63.8% of his passes for an average of 6.49 YPA, 3 touchdowns, and 1 interception. Stick was a 5th round pick in 2019, but last season was the first action of his career. Without much financial flexibility this off-season, the Chargers brought Stick back as the backup for another year. You could do worse than him as a backup, but you could also do a lot better and if Herbert misses more time with injury, the Chargers would be in a lot of trouble. The Chargers will obviously be hoping that doesn’t happen, because Herbert is one of the best quarterbacks in the league when healthy.

Grade: A

Receiving Corps

The Chargers’ receiving corps was an issue last season. Going into the season, it didn’t look like an issue because they had veterans Keenan Allen and Mike Williams, who were just two years removed from being one of the few wide receiver duos in the league to both surpass 1000 yards receiving in 2021, and they added 2023 first round pick Quentin Johnston to the mix as well. Williams and Allen played well when healthy, with yards per route run averages of 2.33 and 2.36, but Williams went down for the season after 3 games, while Allen missed 4 games of his own. On top of that, Quentin Johnston struggled as a rookie, finishing with just a 38/431/2 slash line and a 0.88 yards per route run average, despite plenty of opportunity.

Things are not looking better for this group in 2024. To get out of their tough cap situation, Allen and Williams were both let go this off-season, Allen in a trade for a 4th round pick and Williams as a cap casualty, owed 23.1 million and 20 million respectively going into their age 32 and age 30 seasons respectively. To replace them, the Chargers will need more out of Quentin Johnston in his second season in the league and they will also be hoping for significant contributions from top holdover Joshua Palmer, second round rookie Ladd McConkey, and veteran free agent acquisition DJ Chark. 

Johnston has a lot of talent and could be significantly better in year two, but that’s far from a guarantee. Palmer is their top returning receiver with a 38/581/2 slash line and a 1.71 yards per route run average, but the 2021 3rd round pick has never been a full-time starter and he only has a career 1.36 yards per route run average. McConkey has upside, but could have growing pains as a rookie. Chark is experienced, but has just a 1.39 yards per route run average in his 6-year career and he’s missed 30 games with injury in those 6 seasons. The Chargers also have 2023 5th round pick Derius Davis, who might have some upside, but he played just 149 snaps as a rookie and averaged just 0.90 yards per route run. Overall, it’s a pretty underwhelming group.

The Chargers can’t expect much out of their tight ends either. Gerald Everett wasn’t great as their starting tight end last season, with a 51/411/3 slash line and a 1.26 yards per route run average, but he’s no longer with the team and the tight ends the Chargers added to replace him, Will Dissly and Hayden Hurst, both look like downgrades. Dissly has averaged just 1.23 yards per route run and 251 yards per season over the past four seasons, while Hurst has a career 1.13 yards per route run average, was even worse in 2023, when he had a 18/184/1 slash line with a 0.82 yards per route run, and is now going into his age 31 season.

The Chargers still have Donald Parham, who had a 27/285/4 slash line and a 1.14 yards per route run average as the #2 tight end last season, but that was a career high in yardage for the career backup and he only has a career 1.32 yards per route run average, even in a limited role. This looks like one of the worst overall receiving corps in the league, even worse than a year ago, when they at least had Keenan Allen for most of the season before he got hurt.

Grade: C+

Offensive Line

With the Chargers’ receiving corps being the way it is, their best path to improving on offense this season is to have a better running game and offensive line. In 2023, the Chargers ranked 27th in the NFL with 3.81 YPC, while their offensive line ranked dead last in PFF run blocking grade, though they at least ranked 13th in pass blocking grade. To improve their offensive line, the Chargers used the 5th overall pick on Joe Alt, who will instantly slot in at right tackle, and signed center Bradley Bozeman to a 1-year, 1.125 million dollar deal in free agency.

Alt should immediately be an upgrade over incumbent Trey Pipkins, who was marginal with a 62.8 PFF grade in 17 starts. A 3rd round pick in 2019, Pipkins has mostly been a marginal starter throughout his career (41 starts in five seasons in the league) and is best suited to be a swing tackle, which he will be now. Bozeman, meanwhile, should be a steal on a cheap 1-year deal, having finished above 60 on PFF in five straight seasons (76 starts). He’s going into his age 30 season now, but it wouldn’t be hard for him to be an upgrade on Will Clapp, who had a 56.7 PFF grade in 11 starts at center last season and who is no longer with the Chargers.

Guard was also a position of weakness in 2023 and, without any additions being made this off-season, the Chargers will instead be hoping for better play out of their incumbent starters, Zion Johnson and Jamaree Salyer. It’s very possible the Chargers get that, though both would probably still be underwhelming even in a best case scenario. Johnson has the most upside, as he was a first round pick in 2022, and he had a decent rookie year with a 64.8 PFF grade in 17 starts, before falling to a 57.6 grade in 2023. There’s a good chance he at least bounces back to his rookie year form in 2024 and it wouldn’t be a surprise to see his third season in the league be his best yet.

Salyer, on the other hand, was just a 6th round pick in 2022. He surprised as a rookie with a 69.2 PFF grade in 14 starts at left tackle as an injury replacement, but he couldn’t keep up that level of play in a new spot at right guard in 2023, finishing with a 54.2 PFF grade in 17 starts. Now going into his third season in the league in 2024, Salyer has bounce back potential, but it’s worth noting that he wasn’t highly drafted and that he’s playing a different position than where he originally found some success, so it wouldn’t be a surprise if he continued struggling. 

The Chargers will need better play out of Johnson and Salyer in 2024 because their only other options on the interior of their offensive line are Brenden James, a 2021 5th round pick who has played just 264 mediocre snaps in his career, and Jordan McFadden, a 2023 5th round pick, who struggled with a 52.0 PFF grade on 163 snaps as a rookie last season. Both are underwhelming options even as interior reserves, which is what they will be, barring injuries.

The Chargers best offensive lineman by far last season was left tackle Rashawn Slater, who had a 76.6 PFF grade in 17 starts, excelling in pass protection, with just 3 sacks and 7 hits allowed all season. A first round pick in 2021, Slater also excelled as a rookie with a 83.6 PFF grade, with a season mostly lost due to injury in 2022 in between (175 snaps played). Still only in his age 25 season, Slater should continue playing at a high level in 2024 and could potentially get even better, now in his fourth season in the league. The offensive line should be better with the additions of Joe Alt and Bradley Bozeman, as well as potential bounce back seasons from their guards Zion Johnson and Jamaree Salyer, but there are still some reasons to be concerned about this group.

Grade: B

Running Backs

Another move the Chargers made this off-season towards trying to improve their running game was hiring offensive coordinator Greg Roman, who is one of the best running game offensive coordinators in the league. Roman has had a lot of success with mobile quarterbacks, getting career best years out of Colin Kaepernick, Tyrod Taylor, and Lamar Jackson over the past decade or so, starting as an NFL coordinator with Harbaugh and the 49ers. Justin Herbert isn’t the same kind of athlete those quarterbacks are, but he’s a good runner for a quarterback, with 4.07 YPC on 224 carries in four seasons in the league, and it wouldn’t surprise me if he reached a new career high in carries, while becoming more efficient, with Roman now calling the shots.

The Chargers also overhauled their running back room this off-season, bringing in a couple backs from Roman’s last stop in Baltimore, Gus Edwards and JK Dobbins. The Chargers’ run blocking was a big problem last season, but the running backs themselves were also a big part of the issue and, as such, the Chargers let their top two backs, Austin Ekeler (3.51 YPC on 179 carries) and Joshua Kelly (3.79 YPC on 107 carries) leave this off-season, replacing them with Edwards and Dobbins.

Edwards and Dobbins were teammates for the past four seasons in Baltimore, but weren’t active in the same game that often because of injuries, with Dobbins missing all but 9 games over the past three seasons, first tearing his ACL in 2021 and then tearing his achilles in 2023, and Edwards being limited to 26 games over that time period, also tearing his ACL around the same time as Dobbins did in 2021. Dobbins has shown plenty of potential in his career since being drafted in the 2nd round in 2020, averaging 5.76 YPC on 234 carries in 24 games, but it’s unclear if he’ll have the same level of explosiveness after two major injuries cost him most of the past three seasons. Dobbins also won’t have the benefit of sharing a backfield with Lamar Jackson, who is the primary focus of opponents’ run defenses.

Edwards has a career 4.86 YPC average on 699 carries in 6 seasons in the league, but he also won’t have the benefit of sharing a backfield with Lamar Jackson anymore. In the 24 games Dobbins has played in his career, Edwards has averaged 9.17 carries per game, as opposed to 9.75 carries per game for Dobbins and I would expect a similar split in 2024, though Edwards will probably end up leading the team in carries because he’s less likely to miss time with injury than Dobbins, never having any injury issues in his career aside from the torn ACL that cost him about a season and a half from 2021-2022.

Both backs are good fits for the scheme and, with the Chargers’ run blocking likely being a lot better this season, both backs should be significantly more effective on the ground than Ekeler and Kelley were a year ago. Neither Edwards nor Dobbins contribute much in the passing game, with career averages of 0.78 yards per route run and 0.59 yards per route run respectively, but Greg Roman’s offense doesn’t usually target running backs out of the backfield much anyway. 

If either Edwards or Dobbins misses more time with injury, the other would likely take on a much bigger role, with their backup being either 6th round rookie Kimani Vidal or 2022 4th round pick Isaiah Spiller, who has a career 2.49 YPC average on 55 carries. Both would be underwhelming options. This overhauled backfield isn’t a bad group and they should be more effective than the Chargers’ running backs a year ago, but they aren’t a great backfield either, lacking high end talent.

Grade: B

Interior Defenders

The Chargers’ defense was also a problem a year ago and probably their biggest weakness was the interior defender position. Austin Johnson (641 snaps), Sebastian Joseph-Day (560 snaps), Morgan Fox (437 snaps), Nick Williams (399 snaps), Scott Matlock (266 snaps), and Otito Ogbonnia (223 snaps) all saw significant action at the interior defender spot for the Chargers last season and all finished with grades below 60 on PFF, some well below 60. Johnson, Joseph-Day, and Williams, who had grades of 45.7, 59.7, and 59.7, are no longer with the team, but the Chargers didn’t do much to replace them and this still figures to be a position of weakness in 2024.

Fox, Ogbonnia, and Matlock all figure to have significant roles and free agent addition Poona Ford and 4th round rookie Justin Eboigbe likely will as well. Ford was a good cheap signing on a 1-year, 1.79 million dollar deal. He only played 151 snaps in a deep position group with the Bills last season, but he finished above 60 on PFF in 4 of the previous 5 seasons with the Seahawks prior to joining the Bills, on an average of 570 snaps played per season. He’s at his best against the run, but isn’t a bad pass rusher, with 8.5 sacks, 22 hits, and a 6.6% pressure rate in 84 career games. He figures to at least have a base package role with the Chargers and could perform well in that capacity.

Morgan Fox is at least a useful interior pass rusher. He finished with an overall 58.0 PFF grade last season because of his issues against the run, but he did add 5.5 sacks, 6 hits, and a 11.6% pressure rate as a pass rusher. That’s largely been the case for him throughout his career, as he’s finished below 60 on PFF as a run defender in six straight seasons, but has added 24 sacks, 22 hits, and a 9.5% pressure rate in 99 games. He should remain a similar player in 2024, though it’s a slight concern that he’s now going into his age 30 season.

The rest of this group should be mediocre at best, though they are young, so they at least have theoretical upside. The rookie Eboigbe could be a useful player long-term, but it would be a surprise if he contributed in a significant way in year one. Matlock was rookie last season, but he was only a 6th round pick and, even if he’s better in year two, he could still struggle, as he had a terrible 36.8 PFF grade last season. Ogbonnia was just a 5th round pick in 2022 and hasn’t shown much of anything in two years in the league, with PFF grades of 43.2 and 50.4 across 361 total snaps. It’s possible one takes a big step forward this season, but most likely they’ll all struggle. Even if they’re marginally better than a year ago, this should still be a weak position group.

Grade: C

Edge Defenders

The edge defender position was supposed to be a big strength for the Chargers last season, with a dominant duo of Khalil Mack and Joey Bosa. Mack held up his end of the bargain, dominating with a 91.8 PFF grade on 934 snaps, playing the run at a high level and adding 17 sacks, 12 hits, and a 16.5% pressure rate, but Bosa was limited to just 320 snaps in 9 games due to injury. Bosa still played at a pretty high level when on the field, with a PFF grade, 6.5 sacks, 3 hits, and a 11.5% pressure rate, but he wasn’t at his best, after exceeding 80 on PFF in 6 of the previous 7 seasons. 

Bosa should bounce back in 2024 if he’s healthy, only going into his age 29 season, but he’s had injury issues for years, missing 38 games in eight seasons in the league, including 20 games over the past two seasons, so it wouldn’t be a surprise at all if he missed more time this season. He should still give them more than he gave them a year ago, which would be a boost for this defense. Unfortunately, there’s a good chance Mack doesn’t give them as much as he did a year ago, now going into his age 33 season.

In fact, Mack looked like he was declining going into last season, receiving PFF grades of 73.0 and 71.1 in 2021 and 2022 respectively, while totaling 14 sacks, 5 hits, and a 12.0% pressure rate in 24 games, after finishing above 85 on PFF in the previous seven seasons, with 70.5 sacks, 63 hits, and a 13.9% pressure rate in 110 games in those seven seasons. Mack bounced back to his prime form in 2023, but he could easily regress significantly again in 2024. Even if he doesn’t, I wouldn’t expect him to be quite as good in 2024 as he was in 2023.

With Bosa missing significant time last season, the Chargers’ expected third edge defender Tuli Tuipulotu had to play 852 snaps and he did pretty well, finishing with a 71.0 PFF grade, playing the run well and adding 4.5 sacks, 10 hits, and a 11.5% pressure rate. A 2nd round pick in 2023, Tuipulotu could be even better in year two, but he’ll probably play a smaller role, unless Mack or Bosa miss extended time with injury. The Chargers also added veteran Bud Dupree in free agency to give them additional depth.

Dupree is a 9-year veteran who has started 99 of the 119 games he’s played in his career, while averaging 48.0 snaps per game and 634 snaps per season, but he’s finished below 60 on PFF in three straight seasons and now is going into his age 31 season, so he’s best off in a reserve role. With Mack, Bosa, and Tuipulotu ahead of him on the depth chart, Dupree won’t play that many snaps in 2024, barring injury, which is a better role for him. This is a deep and talented edge defender group overall.

Grade: A

Linebackers

Eric Kendricks (847 snaps) and Kenneth Murray (968 snaps) were the Chargers top-2 linebackers a year ago and both are no longer with the team. Kendricks had a 72.3 PFF grade last season and was only let go because the Chargers had a tough cap situation and he was owed 6.5 million in what would have been his age 32 season in 2024. Murray, on the other hand, only had a 52.9 PFF grade, so he wouldn’t be missed too much, if not for the fact that the Chargers didn’t really replace him or Kendricks adequately. 

Added to the mix this off-season were Denzel Perryman, a free agent coming over on a cheap 1-year, 2.3 million dollar deal, and Junior Colson, a 3rd round rookie. The Chargers also could give bigger roles to 2023 3rd round pick Daiyan Henley, who played just 54 snaps as a rookie, and Nick Niemann, a 2021 6th round pick who has played just 322 snaps in three seasons in the league, 247 of which came last season. Perryman is by far the most experienced of the bunch, going into his 10th season in the league. 

Perryman has been a good run defender throughout his career, but he’s also consistently struggled in coverage and, as a result, only has played 38.8 snaps per game in his career. He’s also missed 39 games with injury in 9 seasons in the league and is now going into his age 32 season. He would be best as a pure base package run defender, but, given the state of this linebacking corps, he’ll probably have to play a bigger role, unless the young linebackers exceed expectations. This is an overall underwhelming linebacking corps.

Grade: C

Secondary

Cornerback was a problem for the Chargers’ defense last season as only one of their top-4 cornerbacks in terms of snaps played finished above 60 on PFF. That one cornerback was Asante Samuel, a 2021 2nd round pick who broke out with a 73.9 PFF grade on 1,111 snaps in 2023, after improving from a 56.4 PFF grade on 693 snaps as a rookie to a 63.6 PFF grade on 971 snaps in his second season in the league in 2022. Samuel is a one-year wonder in terms of playing at the level he played at last season, but he’s also highly talented and only going into his age 25 season, so it wouldn’t be a surprise if he continued being an above average starter or even if he got better in 2024, now his 4th season in the league.

The Chargers didn’t retain Michael Davis, who struggled with a 56.5 PFF grade on 886 snaps in 15 games as the other starting cornerback in 2023, but his replacement, ex-Titan Kristian Fulton, isn’t necessarily going to be any better. Fulton was a 2nd round pick in 2020, but he was inconsistent throughout his four years in Tennessee, maxing out with a 66.1 PFF grade in 2021, missing 25 games due to injury, and finishing below 60 on PFF twice, including a career worst 46.4 PFF grade on 644 snaps in 12 games (11 starts) in 2023. Fulton is still relatively young in his age 26 season and was not a bad flier on a 1-year, 3.125 million dollar contract, but time is running out for him to develop into even a consistently average starting cornerback.

Ja’Sir Taylor remains as the likely 3rd cornerback, despite finishing with a 56.2 PFF grade on 534 snaps in 2023, in the first extended action of the 2022 6th round pick’s career. It’s possible he could be better in his third season in the league in 2024, but he didn’t come into the league with a high upside and he’s really only likely to be their 3rd cornerback again because of the lack of a better option, with the Chargers other cornerback options being 2022 7th round pick Deane Leonard, who had a 57.3 PFF grade on 222 snaps in the first real action of his career in 2023, as well as rookies Cam Hart and Tarheeb Still, a pair of 5th round picks who would both almost definitely struggle if forced into significant action as a rookie.

At safety, the Chargers finally got a healthy season out of Derwin James, after he had missed 32 games in the previous four seasons combined, not making it through a full season without missing time since his rookie season in 2018. However, James was not nearly the same player in 2023 as he had been in the past, finishing with a 60.1 PFF grade after surpassing 75 in each of his previous seasons in the league. James remained a great run defender, but had a lot of struggles in coverage. It’s possible his injuries have permanently sapped his abilities, but he’s also only going into his age 28 season, so he could have a lot of bounce back potential if he can regain his past form and continue avoiding injuries. Those are big ifs though.

Fortunately, a breakout season by the Chargers other safety Alohi Gilman made up for James disappointing. Gilman’s breakout season kind of came out of nowhere, as he was a 6th round pick in 2020, never played more than 474 snaps in a season prior to 2023, and had finished below 60 on PFF in each of his first three seasons in the league, before breaking out with a 86.1 PFF grade across 928 snaps in 2023. The market didn’t seem to buy that Gilman would continue playing at that level, leading to him re-signing with the Chargers for just 10.125 million over 2 years to this off-season, and it’s very possible he regresses at least somewhat in 2024, as he is the definition of a one-year wonder, but at least his regression could be offset by better play from Derwin James.

Dean Marlowe was the Chargers’ top reserve safety a year ago, with a 60.7 PFF grade across 298 snaps, but he wasn’t retained this off-season, so that role will likely go to JT Woods. Woods was a 3rd round pick in 2022 and came into the league with a lot of potential, but he’s only played 91 snaps in two seasons in the league thus far. He’s unproven, but he could still have upside and isn’t a bad option as a top reserve. The Chargers still have issues at the cornerback position, but their secondary isn’t that bad overall.

Grade: B

Conclusion

The Chargers finally seem to have found the right head coach and, with quarterback Justin Herbert already in place, the Chargers have the all important head coach/quarterback combo correct. Unfortunately, the rest of this roster isn’t in great shape, after a 5-12 finish in 2023 and an off-season of salary cap problems, and it may take a couple years for Harbaugh to fully build the kind of team he wants to build. I would still expect this team to finish with a better record in 2024 than they had in 2023, but it will be tough for them to make the playoffs in the loaded AFC.

Update: I still don’t have the Chargers as a playoff team, but they have one of the weakest schedules in the conference, which helps their chances.

Prediction: 10-7, 2nd in AFC West