Chiefs

Kansas City Chiefs at Dallas Cowboys: 2025 Week 13 NFL Pick

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Kansas City Chiefs (6-5) at Dallas Cowboys (5-5-1)

The Cowboys have been my Pick of the Week the past two weeks and I like them a lot again this week. The conventional thinking is that they have a great offense and a terrible defense and, in fact, they do rank 3rd in my schedule adjusted offensive efficiency and 31st in my schedule adjusted defensive efficiency. However, offensive efficiency is more predictive on a season long basis than defensive efficiency and, on top of that, the Cowboys’ defense has gotten a lot better in recent weeks.

Since their week 9 bye, the Cowboys have gotten safeties Malik Hooker and Donovan Wilson, cornerback Shavon Revel, and linebacker DeMarvion Overshown back from injury, while adding defensive tackle Quinnen Williams and linebacker Logan Wilson via trade. That’s legitimately six starters that they have now that they didn’t for most or all of the first half of the season and that makes their defense a lot better than it was, particularly the addition of Williams, who is one of the best players in the league at his position. The Cowboys also have great special teams and, overall, have a top-10 roster, which is not how they are being talked about, even after a blowout win in Las Vegas and an upset win over the Eagles.

The Cowboys’ schedule gets even harder this week with the Chiefs coming to town, but the Cowboys aren’t far behind the Chiefs in my roster rankings and could still keep this one close or even pull another upset, as 3.5-point home favorites, especially since the Chiefs are in a terrible spot, playing on Thursday after playing in an overtime game the previous week. Teams are just 7-25 ATS in this spot all-time, as it is very tough to play on a short turnaround after a long game. The Cowboys are my Pick of the Week again this week.

Dallas Cowboys 26 Kansas City Chiefs 24 Upset Pick +140

Pick against the spread: Dallas +3.5

Confidence: Pick of the Week

Los Angeles Chargers vs. Kansas City Chiefs: 2025 Week 1 NFL Pick

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Los Angeles Chargers (0-0) vs. Kansas City Chiefs (0-0) in Brazil

The Chiefs won 15 games and made the Super Bowl a year ago, but they didn’t have a lot of wins by big margins, with just three of their 17 victories coming by more than 10 points, six coming by more than 7 points, and six coming by 3 points or fewer, relevant considering this line is Kansas City -3. Including their three losses, just over half (11) of the twenty games the Chiefs played last season resulted in them winning by more than 3 points. 

There is potential for the Chiefs to win more games by bigger margins this season once their receiving corps gets to full strength, but they are going to be without their eventual #1 receiver Rashee Rice for the first six games of the season due to suspension. Rice missed most of last season with injury, but it’s worth noting that if you exclude the four games he played last season, the Chiefs won by more than 3 points in exactly half of their games, 8 out of 16. On top of that, the Chiefs have also lost talented guard Joe Thuney and top safety Justin Reid from last year’s team, though the addition of rookie left tackle Josh Simmons should somewhat offset the loss of Thuney.

Given all of that, it wouldn’t be wise to confidently bet the Chiefs as 3-point favorites in a neutral site against a decent Chargers team. My calculated line is exactly where the actual line is at -3. One thing working in the Chiefs’ favor is that the better team tends to cover in international games as they tend to be better prepared for the unusual circumstances, leading to favorites being 37-20 ATS in international games all time. However, I don’t think that is enough to be confident in the Chiefs covering this spread. The Chiefs are my pick for pick ‘em purposes, but this is a low confidence pick.

Kansas City Chiefs 24 Los Angeles Chargers 17

Pick against the spread: Kansas City -3

Confidence: Low

Kansas City Chiefs 2025 NFL Season Preview

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Quarterback

The Chiefs finished the regular season with the best record in the league last season at 15-2, with one of those losses being a meaningless week 18 game when they already had the #1 seed locked up, and then they won their first two post-season games en route to the Super Bowl. However, in doing that, the Chiefs went an improbable 11-0 in one-score games, narrowly escaping defeat to lesser opponents on several occasions. In the Super Bowl, against their toughest opponent of the season in the Philadelphia Eagles, the Chiefs proved to be overmatched, losing 40-22 in a game that wasn’t even as close as the final score suggested.

A team’s record in one-score games tends to be highly inconsistent on a year-to-year basis and, while Patrick Mahomes is 52-19 in one-score games in his career, which seems to make him an exception to the rule, it’s still highly unlikely the Chiefs will go 11-0 in one-score games again, so the Chiefs will have to elevate their overall level of play if they want to have the regular season success they had last season. They will also have to elevate their overall level of play if they want to compete at the highest level, after being embarrassed against their toughest opponent last season. 

The Chiefs’ offense has more room for improvement than their defense, which a couple years ago would have sounded crazy to say, as Mahomes used to consistently quarterback high level offenses, but his production has dropped off significantly over the past two seasons. After completing 66.4% of his passes for an average of 8.10 YPA, 192 touchdowns, and 48 interceptions (106.0 QB rating) in his first five seasons in the league, Mahomes has seen those numbers fall to 67.3% completion, 6.89 YPA, 53 touchdowns, and 25 interceptions (93.0 QB rating) over the past two seasons. Last season, the Chiefs ranked just 22nd in yards per play and 13th in first down rate allowed.

Mahomes himself hasn’t necessarily been the problem, as his PFF grades of 85.1 and 85.8 in 2023 and 2024 aren’t far off of his PFF grades from 2018-2022, as they are his 5th and 4th highest grades of his 7-year tenure as a starter respectively. The bigger problem is how much his offensive supporting cast has fallen off around him. I will get into whether or not that is likely to improve this season later, but Mahomes himself should continue playing at a relatively high level in 2025.

Mahomes has also been pretty durable in his career, missing just two starts due to injury in seven seasons as a starter, and the Chiefs also have a good backup option, signing Gardner Minshew this off-season. Minshew fizzled out as a starter, with a 88.5 QB rating in 46 starts with four teams in six seasons in the league, but he’s an above average option to have as a backup. The Chiefs would obviously be in trouble if Mahomes missed significant time with injury, but that’s true of all elite quarterbacks and is not an indictment on Minshew as a backup.

Grade: A

Receiving Corps

A big problem with this offense over the past three seasons has been their receiving corps. The Chiefs thought they solved this problem last off-season when they signed Marquise Brown and drafted Xavier Worthy in the first round, to go with 2023 2nd round pick Rashee Rice, who broke out down the stretch of his rookie season. However, Brown and Rice were limited to two games and four games respectively due to injury, while Worthy had an underwhelming rookie season, with just a 1.24 yards per route run average and a 59/638/6 slash line on 98 targets. 

The Chiefs traded for DeAndre Hopkins mid-season and he averaged 1.75 yards per route run, but he struggled to learn the offense on the fly and averaged just 35.6 snaps per game in the 10 regular season games he played for the team, which declined even further in the playoffs, when he saw just 49 snaps in three games. Instead, it was Justin Watson and JuJu Smith-Schuster who finished second and third on the team in snaps played among wide receivers, with 684 and 424 respectively, and they averaged just 0.72 yards per route run and 0.89 yards per route run respectively. 

The good news going into 2025 is that Rice and Brown are likely to be much healthier, while Worthy showed a lot of potential down the stretch, averaging 2.00 yards per route run with a 58/679/6 slash line on 79 targets in his final 10 games of the season, including the post-season. That is a small sample size and I wouldn’t expect him to be that good for the entire 2025 season, but he entered the league with a lot of upside and there is a good chance his production improves at least somewhat from 2024 to 2025.

Rice has the most potential of the trio. As a rookie, averaged 2.39 yards per route run and had a 79/938/7 slash line, including a 62/765/5 slash line in 11 games after he started playing every down, which extrapolates to 96/1182/7 over 17 games, and he improved even further in his second season in the league, with a 24/288/2 slash line and 3.27 yards per route run in his first three games, before suffering a season ending injury early in week 4. Rice is still only in his age 25 season and has a sky-high upside, but, in addition to his injury recovery complicating his projection, he could also be facing a suspension, depending on the resolution of an arrest during last off-season, though there is at least a good chance any potential suspension wouldn’t happen until 2026. Rice’s upside is massive, but he does at least come with some downside.

Brown’s upside isn’t nearly as high, but he should still be a welcome addition. In six seasons in the league, the 2019 1st round pick has averaged 1.57 yards per route run and a 76/858/6 slash line per 17 games and he is still only going into his age 28 season. Durability has been a consistent issue for him though, as he has missed time in all but one season in the league, with 26 games missed total over six seasons, but he still figures to play significantly more games than he did a year ago. If Rice and Worthy come close to living up to their potential, Brown would probably be the Chiefs #3 receiver and any wide receiver group that has Brown as their third option is in good shape.

For depth options, the Chiefs return JuJu Smith-Schuster and added 4th round pick Jalen Royals to give them more insurance. Smith-Schuster showed a lot of promise early in his career, surpassing two yards per route run in each of his first two seasons in the league, but he has seen that fall to 1.34 yards per route run over the past six seasons combined and, now going into his age 29 season, so many seasons removed from his impressive early seasons, it’s highly unlikely he will ever come close to finding his old form. 

Smith-Schuster is not a bad depth option, but he would be a significant downgrade if forced back into a top-3 role in the absence of Rice, Worthy, or Brown. He figures to start the season ahead of the rookie Royals on the depth chart, but Royals was a good value in the fourth round and could earn his way into the #4 role by season’s end. The Chiefs also still have 2022 2nd round pick Skyy Moore, but he has shown nothing through three seasons in the league, averaging 1.02 yards per route run with just 43 total catches and, while he could still have theoretical upside in his age 25 season, there is a good chance he doesn’t even make the final roster. 

With all of the issues the Chiefs had at wide receiver last season, tight end Travis Kelce led the team in targets by a wide margin, with 133, but he isn’t the player he used to be and turned those targets into just a 97/823/3 slash line, with 1.43 yards per route run. Kelce is one of the best tight ends of all time and has averaged 2.07 yards per route run and a 91/1105/7 slash line per season over the past eleven seasons, but last season’s yards per route run average and total receiving yardage were career lows and now he is going into his age 36 season. 

The Chiefs ranked second in the NFL last season with 33.7% of their targets going to tight ends and 29th with 49.7% of their targets going to wide receivers, which should change drastically in 2025, given the Chiefs’ likely improvement at the wide receiver position. In addition to that, Kelce could also see his overall playing time decrease, in favor of younger backup Noah Gray. Gray was only slightly behind Kelce last season with 1.37 yards per route run and, while that is by far a career best, after averaging just 0.88 yards per route run in his first three seasons in the league, Gray has still earned more opportunity and giving Kelce more rest could keep him fresher down the stretch. Overall, this looks likely to be a much better receiving corps in 2025.

Grade: A-

Offensive Line

The Chiefs’ offensive line was also a problem last season, but, unlike their receiving corps, this group is unlikely to be better in 2025. In fact, they could be worse, after trading away guard Joe Thuney. Thuney was heading into his age 33 season and a contract year, but he still finished with a 79.9 PFF grade in 17 starts last season, so it’s hard to argue he won’t be missed. To replace Thuney, the Chiefs’ options are Mike Caliendo and Kingsley Suamataia.

Caliendo went undrafted in 2022 and has shown no signs of being a starting caliber player in his career, finishing with PFF grades of 45.1 and 49.0 on snap counts of 64 and 237 in 2023 and 2024, the only two seasons of his career in which he’s seen any offensive snaps. Suamataia at least has upside, being selected in the 2nd round in 2024, but he was even worse than Caliendo last season, finishing with a 39.4 PFF grade across 195 snaps. Suamataia’s struggles last season came at left tackle and the Chiefs are hoping that a move inside to left guard in his second season in the league will help him take a big step forward, but that’s far from a guarantee. It’s very likely whoever starts at left guard will be a big liability, a massive shift from last season, when Joe Thuney was a well above average starter.

Suamataia wasn’t the only player who struggled at left tackle last season, as all three players who made starts there finished below 60 on PFF. Wanya Morris was their primary left tackle last season, making 11 starts, and he finished with a 53.0 PFF grade. Morris was a 3rd round pick in 2023, but was also mediocre as a rookie, with a 55.6 PFF grade across 340 snaps. Morris may still have some untapped upside, but they are not planning on relying on him this season, adding Josh Simmons in the first round of the draft and signing Jaylon Moore to a 2-year, 30 million dollar deal, both of whom are more likely than Morris to see action at left tackle this season.

Both Simmons and Moore have upside, but they come with downside as well. Simmons could have been a top-15 pick in the draft, but fell to the Chiefs at 32 because he tore his patellar tendon during his final collegiate season, which is a very significant knee injury. Even if his recovery doesn’t cause him to miss any games this season, there is no guarantee that Simmons will return to his pre-injury form, especially not right away. Moore, meanwhile, has received PFF grades of 66.3, 72.9, and 74.9 in the past three seasons, but the 2021 5th round pick has only made 12 starts in four seasons in the league and is a projection to a season-long starting role, which he could ultimately end up struggling in. 

At right tackle, Jawaan Taylor is probably locked into a starting role, but that is mostly because his 20 million dollar salary for 2025 is guaranteed and the Chiefs don’t really have a better option anyway. Taylor was signed to a 4-year, 80 million dollar contract with essentially 60 million guaranteed two off-season ago, but that contract looked like a mistake at the time, after Taylor had finished with PFF grades of 63.7, 56.5, 60.4, and 58.7 in his first four seasons in the league, and it has only gotten worse over the past two seasons, when he has finished with PFF grades of 51.6 and 59.9 respectively. He will likely continue being mediocre in 2025 and could potentially struggle enough that he gets benched down the stretch for one of Simmons or Moore, who are not necessarily upgrades.

The Chiefs do at least return two bright spots from a year ago, center Creed Humphrey and right guard Trey Smith. Humphrey and Smith were added in the same draft, taken in the 2nd round and the 5th round respectively in 2021 and both have drastically exceeded their draft slot, with Humphrey receiving PFF grades of 91.4, 90.0, 78.2, and 92.8 over the past four seasons and Smith receiving PFF grades of 72.3, 71.5, 72.2, and 78.8. Humphrey was kept on a 4-year, 72 million dollar extension last off-season, while Trey Smith was franchise tagged at a price of 23.4 million for one year this off-season, as he and the Chiefs work towards a long-term extension. Humphrey and Smith elevate this offensive line, but the rest of this group has a lot of concerns.

Grade: B+

Running Backs

The Chiefs’ running game was an issue last season too, ranking 22nd in the NFL with a 3.97 YPC average. Isiah Pacheco had averaged 4.71 YPC across 375 carries between 2022 and 2023 as the lead back, but injuries limited him to just 3.73 YPC across 83 carries in seven games last season. In his absence, Kareem Hunt was the lead back and averaged just 3.64 YPC across 200 carries, while fullback Carson Steele moved to running back and also saw carries, averaging just 3.27 YPC across 56 carries.

Pacheco only missed three games in his first two seasons in the league in 2022 and 2023, so he’s not an injury prone player and he has a good chance to stay healthy and bounce back in 2025. However, he’s not guaranteed to step back into as big of a role as he had previously. The Chiefs added Elijah Mitchell as a free agent this off-season and, while he’s a major injury risk, limited to 327 carries in 27 games in four seasons in the league, including a full season missed to injury last season, he’s also shown a lot of promise, averaging 4.66 YPC in his limited action. If he can stay healthy, he could eat into a significant chunk of Pacheco’s carries.

The Chiefs also added Brashard Smith in the 7th round of the draft and, while he might not be a significant threat for carries, he could easily earn a passing down role. Pacheco and Mitchell have averaged just 0.88 yards per route run and 0.70 yards per route run respectively in their careers and, while Hunt used to be a good pass catcher, he’s averaged less than one yard per route run in three straight seasons, in addition to averaging less than 4 yards per carry in three straight seasons. Expect Pacheco and Mitchell to compete for early down carries and Hunt and Smith to compete for passing game work in a backfield that should be deeper and more talented than a year ago.

Grade: B+

Interior Defenders

The Chiefs’ defense was much better than their offense in 2024, and they bring back all but two of the 17 players who played at least 300 snaps for them on defense last season, so they have a good chance to remain a high level unit. One of the two players who left is interior defender Tershawn Wharton, who was a good pass rusher with 6.5 sacks, 4 hits, and a 7.3% pressure rate, but struggled mightily against the run with a 44.3 PFF grade in run defense, leading to him finishing with an overall PFF grade of just 56.3 across 667 snaps, so he won’t be missed too much.

Wharton was also replaced by a very similar player in Jerry Tillery, who has finished below 60 on PFF in run defense in five of six seasons in the league, but has totaled 12.5 sacks, 31 hits, and a 7.2% pressure rate in 96 career games. The Chiefs also added Omarr Norman-Lott, who is a more well-rounded player, in the 2nd round of the draft to give them needed depth. He will essentially be replacing veteran free agent departure Derrick Nnadi, who struggled mightily with a 35.8 PFF grade across 221 snaps last season.

Chris Jones was by far the Chiefs’ best interior defender last season, one of the best interior defenders in the league in fact, and he elevates this position group significantly by himself. Jones was PFF’s 3rd ranked interior defender especially excelling as a pass rusher with 5 sacks, 16 hits, and a 13.6% pressure rate. In total, Jones has finished above 80 on PFF in eight straight seasons, including three seasons above 90, while accumulating 80.5 sacks, 120 hits, and a 13.2% pressure rate in 138 career games. Jones is now going into his age 31 season, so he could start to decline this season, which would hurt this defense, but even if he declines, he is declining from such a high base point that it’s hard to imagine he wouldn’t still be one of the best interior defenders in the league, especially as a pass rusher.

The Chiefs also still have Mike Pennel, who only had a 5.6% pressure rate last season, but was a useful situational run stopper, playing 320 snaps overall. Pennel has maxed out at 358 snaps played in a season in 11 seasons in the league, while totaling just a 5.8% pressure rate for his career, but he’s carved out a role as a useful situational run stopper. However, he is now going into his age 34 season, so he might not be able to be relied on in that role for another season. This is still an underwhelming group outside of Chris Jones, but Jones significantly elevates this group overall.

Grade: B+

Edge Defenders

The Chiefs’ edge defender group is largely the same as a year ago and, to the extent it is different, it could be better, with Charles Omenihu likely to play more than the 225 snaps in six games he was limited to last season due to injury and Ashton Gillotte being added in the third round of the draft. George Karlaftis was the best of the bunch last season and that figures to remain the case in 2025. He finished last season with a 68.4 PFF grade across 831 snaps, playing at his best as a pass rusher, with 8 sacks, 21 hits, and a 11.1% pressure rate, after a 64.0 PFF grade across 755 snaps and 10.5 sacks, 5 hits, and a 14.1% pressure rate in 2023. He has struggled against the run and is not an elite pass rusher, as he benefits significantly from Chris Jones drawing double teams on the interior, but the 2022 1st round pick is still only in his age 24 season and could keep getting better.

The rest of this position group used heavy rotation last season, with Mike Danna ranking second among Chiefs edge defenders with only 496 snaps played. That rotation should continue, but Danna might not play as big of a role, with 2023 1st round pick Felix Anudike-Uzomah going into his third season in the league and possibly in line for a bigger role, after playing just 550 snaps total in his first two seasons in the league, and Charles Omenihu likely to be healthier than a year ago. 

Anudike-Uzomah probably has the highest upside of the bunch, but hasn’t shown much in two seasons in the league, with PFF grades of 218 and 332. He could take a step forward in 2025, but that’s far from a guarantee. Danna, on the other hand, has finished in the 60s on PFF in all five seasons in the league, on an average of 516 snaps per season, while Omenihu has finished below 60 on PFF in run defense grade in five of six seasons in the league, but has finished above 60 in pass rush grade in all six seasons, with three seasons above 70 and a total of 19.5 sacks, 38 hits, and a 10.6% pressure rate in 78 career games, despite lining up inside frequently in passing situations. This is a decent position group and could be better than a year ago, with Omenihu set to be healthier and a pair of recent first round picks who could take a step forward.

Grade: B

Linebackers

The Chiefs’ linebackers were an effective group last season and the same group returns this season. Nick Bolton and Drue Tranquill were solid as the starters, with PFF grades of 65.4 and 66.5 respectively across snap counts of 941 and 798, but situational run stopper Leo Chenal had the best PFF grade of the bunch, with a 83.6 PFF grade, albeit across just 445 snaps. Chenal has been a great run defender throughout his three seasons in the league, but last season was his first good season in coverage and the 2022 3rd round pick may have earned a bigger role in 2025, still only his age 25 season.

If Chenal plays a bigger role in 2025, it will likely come at the expense of Tranquill. Tranquill has finished above 60 on PFF in all five healthy seasons in the league, maxing out at a 70.5 PFF grade in 2023, but he hasn’t been as good in his career as Bolton has and now he’s heading into his age 30 season and could decline somewhat in 2025. Bolton, on the other hand, is actually coming off of a career worst season, having finished with PFF grades of 69.2, 75.7, and 69.2 in his first three seasons in the league prior to last season. Still only in his age 25 season, he has some bounce back potential in 2025. This is a talented linebacking corps overall.

Grade: B+

Secondary

The other defensive player who the Chiefs lost this off-season is safety Justin Reid, who had a 76.9 PFF grade across 974 snaps in 2024, but they replaced him by giving a 2-year, 20 million dollar deal to free agent cornerback Kristian Fulton, whose addition will allow the Chiefs to move Chamarri Conner back to his natural position at safety full-time, after spending time at corner down the stretch last season. Fulton is coming off of a career best year with the Chargers in 2024, receiving a 71.1 PFF grade across 760 snaps, after finishing below 60 on PFF in two of his first four seasons in the league with the Titans, including a 46.4 PFF grade across 644 snaps as recently as 2023. 

Fulton has always had talent as a former 2020 2nd round pick, so it’s possible he has permanently turned a corner, but it seems more likely he will regress at least somewhat in 2025, though he could still remain a capable starter. Conner, meanwhile, has received PFF grades of 72.7 and 68.2 on snap counts of 305 and 573 as a versatile reserve in two seasons in the league. The 2023 4th round pick will probably play a career high in snaps in 2025 by a significant margin and is a projection to that larger role, but he could easily be a capable every down starter. 

Conner will start next to Bryan Cook, who is the incumbent starter at the other safety position. He played a career high in snaps last season with 974 and had a 63.7 PFF grade, in line with the PFF grades of 64.3 and 65.2 he had on snap counts of 341 and 593 in his first two seasons in the league. The 2022 2nd round pick is still only in his age 26 season and could still have some further untapped upside, but, even if he doesn’t, he should remain a capable starter in 2025. The Chiefs also have 2024 4th round pick Jaden Hicks, who flashed potential with a 72.2 PFF grade across 330 snaps as a rookie and could rotate in as a reserve in his second season in the league in 2025.

The Chiefs’ best defensive back by far is cornerback Trent McDuffie, who is one of the best cornerbacks in the league. The 2022 1st round pick finished 7th among cornerbacks on PFF with a 82.9 grade in 2023 and 2nd among cornerbacks on PFF with a 83.1 grade in 2024. Still only in his age 25 season, McDuffie looks likely to be one of the best cornerbacks in the league for years to come and could potentially have further untapped upside. 

Along with McDuffie and Fulton, the Chiefs’ third cornerback is likely to be Jaylen Watson, who was on his way to a solid season in 2024 with a 70.9 PFF grade through six games, before missing the rest of the regular season with injury. Watson was a 7th round pick in 2022 and only had PFF grades of 56.1 and 66.1 across snap counts of 604 and 440 in his first two seasons in the league, so he’s no guarantee to continue playing over the course of a full season at the level he played at in those six games last season, but he has potential and is probably the Chiefs’ best option for a third cornerback. 

The Chiefs’ other cornerbacks options are Joshua Williams, a 2022 4th round pick who has been solid in limited action in three seasons in the league, with PFF grades of 60.6, 73.0, and 64.3 on an average of 390 snaps per season, Nazeeh Johnson, a 2022 7th round pick who struggled with a 53.9 PFF grade in the first 494 snaps of his career last season, and third round rookie Nohl Williams. Overall, this is an above average secondary, elevated by elite cornerback Trent McDuffie, but this group is not without concerns.

Grade: A-

Kicker

Harrison Butker finished with 2.59 points below average last season, but that was only his second below average season in eight seasons in the league. In fact, in his eight seasons in the league, he has accumulated the third most points above average of any kicker in the league over that span with 30.21. Butker is going into his age 30 season, but those are still prime years for kickers, who often play at a high level into their 30s, so he has a good chance to bounce back in 2025, perhaps in a big way.

Grade: B+

Conclusion

The Chiefs are unlikely to quite have the same level of success in close games as they had last season, so they will need to elevate their level of play if they want to continue being one of the favorites for the #1 seed in the AFC and ultimately if they want to win the Super Bowl. Fortunately, they have a good chance to do so because one of their biggest weaknesses last season, their receiving corps, looks likely to be a position of strength in 2025.

Prediction: 12-5, 1st in AFC West

Kansas City Chiefs vs Philadelphia Eagles: Super Bowl LIX Pick

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Kansas CIty Chiefs (17-2) vs. Philadelphia Eagles (17-3) in Super Bowl LIX

The Chiefs are small favorites for the second straight game, favored by 1.5 points in the Super Bowl against the Eagles after being favored by 1.5 points against the Bills in the AFC Championship. Against the Bills, I bet on the Chiefs, citing the Chiefs’ history when they’re not big favorites, and their history in close games. Overall, the Chiefs are 51-19 in games decided by seven points or fewer when Patrick Mahomes starts, including 11-0 this season, and they are 20-6-1 ATS as underdogs or favorites of less than three when Mahomes starts, including 8-0 ATS in the post-season. Because of that, the Chiefs are close to an automatic bet in those spots, unless there is a good reason not to pick them.

However, this game against the Eagles is different and there are a couple good reasons to bet against the Chiefs this time around. For one, the Eagles have been just as good in close games as the Chiefs in recent years, going 20-5 over the past three seasons in games decided by seven points or fewer when Jalen Hurts starts and finishes the game. On top of that, while the Bills and Chiefs were pretty evenly matched, the Eagles look like a significantly better team, so this game might not even end up being that close.

The Eagles had a significant edge in both first down rate differential (+2.78% vs. +1.82%) and yards per play differential (+0.91 vs. -0.06), this season, excluding both teams’ meaningless week 18 game. The Eagles also are in a much better injury situation now than they have been for much of the season. The Chiefs have recently gotten back key players in starting wide receiver Marquise Brown (15 games missed), starting edge defender Charles Omenihu (11 games missed), and starting cornerback Jaylen Watson (11 games missed) and they have significantly improved their offensive line by moving Joe Thuney from left guard to left tackle, which is a more important position. However, that pales in comparison to the Eagles.

All-Pro wide receiver AJ Brown (4 games missed), talented wide receiver Devonta Smith (4 games), talented tight end Dallas Goedert (7 games), All-Pro left tackle Jordan Mailata (5 games), All-Pro right tackle Lane Johnson (2 games), and top cornerback Darius Slay (3 games) all missed significant time this season and have since returned, while talented edge defender Brandon Graham (9 games missed) seems likely to return. Having Hurts healthy is probably the most important one, as the Eagles have won 12 straight games that he has started and finished.

In the current injury situations these two teams are in, the Eagles have a 5-point edge in my roster rankings. The Chiefs obviously have the edge at quarterback, but aside from that, there isn’t a single other position group where the Chiefs have the edge. The Patrick Mahomes over Jalen Hurts edge is significant, but not nearly enough to make up for the fact that the Eagles are a much better team overall. 

In a lot of ways, this reminds me of the Chiefs’ Super Bowl matchup against the Buccaneers a few years ago, when the Chiefs got to the Super Bowl on the strength of a lot of close victories (9-0 in one-score games that season), before running into a much better team and getting blown out. Even if this game does end up being relatively close, the Chiefs wouldn’t necessarily have the edge in a close game either, given Jalen Hurts recent track record in close games. I wouldn’t make a big wager on the Eagles because of the Chiefs’ history as underdogs or small favorites in the playoffs, but I think we’re getting too much line value with the Eagles to pass on betting on them.

Philadelphia Eagles 27 Kansas City Chiefs 22 Upset Pick +105

Pick against the spread: Philadelphia +1.5

Confidence: Medium

Buffalo Bills at Kansas City Chiefs: 2024 AFC Championship Pick

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Buffalo Bills (15-4) at Kansas City Chiefs (16-2)

With the Lions losing in their first playoff game last week, the Chiefs have the best record in the league at 16-2 and one of those two losses was a meaningless week 18 game when they didn’t play their starters with the one seed already locked up. However, the Chiefs won a lot of close games, with just six wins by more than seven points and a 10-0 record in games decided by seven points or less. The Bills have a worse record than the Chiefs, but still have much better numbers in terms of yards per play differential (+0.42 vs. -0.08) and comparable numbers in terms of first down rate differential (1.21% vs. 1.29%), when you exclude both teams’ meaningless week 18 games.

Typically first down rate differential and yards per play differential are significantly more predictive than win/loss record and, along with that, a teams’ record in one-score games is not predictive, but the Chiefs are now 50-19 in one-score games when Patrick Mahomes starts, which is a pretty big sample size. For comparison, the Bills are just 22-20 in one-score games with Josh Allen since his breakout season in 2020, as good as Allen has been over that time period. 

The gap between these two teams in terms of the aforementioned metrics might suggest this is not necessarily going to be a close game, but my roster rankings have these two teams about equal. The Chiefs are only missing one week 1 starter, wide receiver Rashee Rice, who has been out since week 4, and they have replaced him well by trading for DeAndre Hopkins after week 7 and getting back Marquise Brown after he missed the first 14 games of the season with injury. 

The Chiefs have also recently gotten back other key players in running back Isaiah Pacheco (10 games missed), edge defender Charles Omenihu (11 games missed), and cornerback Jaylen Watson (11 games missed) and they have significantly improved their offensive line by moving Joe Thuney from left guard to left tackle, which is a more important position. As a result, they seem to have gotten better as the year has gone on, with four of their six wins by more than seven points this season coming in their last four meaningful games. The Bills, on the other hand, were one of the least injury plagued teams in the league this season, but now enter this AFC Championship game missing top safety Taylor Rapp and potentially top cornerback Christian Benford, who has yet to clear the concussion protocol.

With this likely to be a close game, the Chiefs seem like the right side. Perhaps unsurprisingly, given their tendency to win close games, the Chiefs have been great this season against the spread when not big favorites, going 7-2 ATS as underdogs or favorites of six points or fewer (excluding week 18), as opposed to 0-7-1 when favored by more than six points. Going back to Mahomes’ first season as a starter in 2018, the Chiefs are 19-6-1 ATS as underdogs or favorites of less than three in games started by Mahomes, including a 18-8 straight up record, making them close to an automatic bet in that situation, especially in the playoffs, when they are 7-0 ATS. My calculated line of Chiefs -2.5 doesn’t give us much value with the Chiefs at -1.5, but as long as this game is expected to be close, I like the Chiefs chances of pulling out the victory. This is only a small bet for now, but I would probably increase it if Benford winds up not playing.

Kansas City Chiefs 28 Buffalo Bills 24

Pick against the spread: Kansas City -1.5

Confidence: Medium

Houston Texans at Kansas City Chiefs: 2024 AFC Divisional Round Pick

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Houston Texans (11-7) at Kansas City Chiefs (15-2)

The Chiefs finished the regular season tied for the best record in the league at 15-2, but they didn’t blow out many opponents, with just four wins by more than eight points, which is relevant, with this line at 8.5. Only one of those four wins by more than eight points came against a fellow playoff qualifier, a 19-point win over the Steelers, who were eliminated in the first round and who were one of the weaker playoff qualifiers. Even excluding their meaningless week 18 loss to the Broncos, the Chiefs only finished the regular season with a first down rate differential of +1.34% and a yards per play differential of -0.04, which are both much more predictive than win/loss records.

However, the Chiefs seemed to turn a corner down the stretch, with their last three victories coming by 14 points, 8 points, and 19 points, including that aforementioned victory over the Steelers, a game in which the Chiefs didn’t even have their top defensive player Chris Jones due to injury. It’s very possible the two-time defending Super Bowl Champion Chiefs were not giving their best effort for most of the season and are now turning it on late in the season. 

The Chiefs are also more talented and healthier now than they have been for most of the season. They are only missing one week 1 starter, wide receiver Rashee Rice, who has been out since week 4, and they have replaced him well by trading for DeAndre Hopkins after week 7 and getting back Marquise Brown after he missed the first 14 games of the season with injury. They have also recently gotten back other key players in running back Isaiah Pacheco (10 games missed), edge defender Charles Omenihu (11 games missed), and cornerback Jaylen Watson (11 games missed) and they have significantly improved their offensive line by moving Joe Thuney from left guard to left tackle, which is a more important position.

The Texans, meanwhile, are probably the worst team left in the post-season. They finished the regular season negative in both first down rate differential (-0.80%) and yards per play differential (-0.04), ranking 4th worst and 2nd worst among playoff qualifiers in those metrics. They’re also one of the more injury plagued teams left in the playoffs, missing four above average week one starters, defensive backs Jimmie Ward and Jalen Pitre, and wide receivers Stefon Diggs and Tank Dell. 

The Texans only lost by 8 when these two teams met a few weeks ago, in the middle of the Chiefs’ impressive late season stretch, but the Texans lost Dell and Ward in that game, after which the Chiefs went on a 10-3 run, even though the Chiefs also lost Chris Jones in that game, who has since returned. If the Chiefs can beat the Steelers in Pittsburgh by 19 even without Jones, they can beat a comparable team in the Texans in Kansas City with Jones by at least 9. There isn’t nearly enough here for the Chiefs to be bettable, given their track record of playing close games this year, but for pick ‘em purposes I would be willing to guess that the Chiefs are permanently playing at a different level now than they were earlier in the season.

Kansas City Chiefs 27 Houston Texans 17

Pick against the spread: Kansas City -8.5

Confidence: Low

Kansas City Chiefs at Pittsburgh Steelers: 2024 Week 17 NFL Pick

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Kansas City Chiefs (14-1) at Pittsburgh Steelers (10-5)

This line favors the visiting Chiefs by 3 points and typically the Steelers are a good bet as underdogs, going 57-39 ATS since Mike Tomlin’s first season in 2007, including 29-17 ATS as underdogs of three or fewer, as they tend to play and win a lot of close games (104-64 in one-score games under Mike Tomlin, the best record in the league over that time period). However, the Chiefs also have played and won a lot of close games this season, going 11-0 in one-score games, and, as a result of that, they have covered at a high rate unless they are big favorites, going 0-5 ATS when favored by 6 points or fewer and 7-3 ATS in their other games.

As a result of all their close victories, both teams are worse in first down rate differential and yards per play differential than their records suggest, as the Chiefs are +1.24% in first down rate differential and -0.15 in yards per play differential, while the Steelers are -2.20% in first down rate differential and -0.23 yards in per play differential. Both of those metrics are more predictive than win/loss record, although both teams have shown the ability to consistently win close games at a much higher rate than average.

Ultimately, this pick comes down to injuries. The Steelers have the advantage in that aspect, even though they’ll be without top cornerback Joey Porter after he got hurt in last week’s game, as they’ll get back top wide receiver George Pickens, talented safety DeShon Elliott, and starting cornerback Donte Jackson from absences of three games, two games, and one game respectively, while the Chiefs could be without stud interior defender Chris Jones for the first time this season, which would a huge absence. My calculated line with Jones out is Kansas City -1 and with him in it’s Kansas City -3. With Jones uncertain, I am going to take the Steelers for a no confidence pick at +3 for now and upgrade it to low confidence if Jones is out and the line doesn’t move.

Kansas City Chiefs 20 Pittsburgh Steelers 17

Pick against the spread: Pittsburgh +3

Confidence: None

Houston Texans at Kansas City Chiefs: 2024 Week 16 NFL Pick

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Houston Texans (9-5) at Kansas City Chiefs (13-1)

Early in the week, the Chiefs opened as 2.5-point home underdogs in this game, as the oddsmakers seemed to be preparing for a Patrick Mahomes absence due to the ankle injury he suffered in last week’s win over the Browns. I locked in a small bet on the money line (+120) at that point because I thought Mahomes had a chance to play, in which case we’d obviously be getting great value with the Chiefs, and, even if he didn’t play, I still thought the Chiefs had a better than 50/50 shot to win, for a number of reasons. 

Mahomes is obviously a great quarterback who would be missed, but he hasn’t played up to his usual standard this season. The Chiefs also have a good backup in Carson Wentz and good teams tend to play well with backup quarterbacks to compensate for their quarterback’s absence. The Chiefs also still have a good defense that ranks 7th in yards per play allowed and 10th in first down rate allowed, while their offense ranks just 24th in yards per play and 13th in first down rate. On top of that, the Texans are an overrated team that has not played as well as their record, with seven of their nine victories coming by eight points or fewer. The Chiefs are also overrated with a lot of close victories, but Mahomes is a big part of why they are overrated and, without him, I don’t think they would be overrated.

However, it looks like Mahomes is going to play in this game after all and this line has shifted significantly to compensate, moving six points all the way to Kansas City -3.5. I don’t like the Chiefs nearly that much at that number, as that’s a huge line movement for one player, especially one that will likely be playing at less than 100%. My calculated line with Mahomes in the lineup is Kansas City -5, even before factoring in that he could be significantly limited by injury or suffer a setback and have to come out of the game. That line of -5 isn’t actually that different from -3.5, as games are rarely decided by 4 or 5 points. With that in mind, I actually like the Texans for pick ‘em purposes, albeit for a no confidence pick.

Kansas City Chiefs 20 Houston Texans 17

Pick against the spread: Houston +3.5

Confidence: None

Las Vegas Raiders at Kansas City Chiefs: 2024 Week 13 NFL Pick

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Las Vegas Raiders (2-9) Kansas City Chiefs (10-1)

This game is a tough call from an against the spread perspective, with the Chiefs favored by 13.5 points. On one hand, the Chiefs are 10-1, but haven’t blown out many teams, with just two wins by more than 7 points, one win by more than 10 points, and no wins that would cover this spread. Because of that, a good rule of thumb is to bet them when they’re underdogs or small-to-medium favorites and go against them as big favorites. They are 5-2 ATS this season as long as they aren’t favored by more than six points, but just 0-4 ATS when favorites of more than six. The Chiefs also could be in a look ahead spot here with a much tougher game against the Chargers on deck, as favorites of 7+ cover the spread at just a 44.3% rate as when their next opponent has a better winning percentage than their current opponent by a margin of more than 40%.

On the other hand, the Raiders in their current state are arguably the worst team in the league and this game against them in Kansas City is arguably the Chiefs’ easiest game of the season. The Chiefs have also largely underachieved this season and have the talent to make this game a blowout if they bring their best effort, which they could even in a bad spot, given Patrick Mahomes’ comments about being frustrated with his team’s lack of blowouts, and given that this is a nationally televised game. Even with the Chargers on deck, the Chiefs may want to make a statement in front of the whole country by blowing out a terrible Raiders team. I am still taking the Raiders for pick ‘em purposes because I think the argument for them covering is stronger than the argument for the Chiefs covering, but I don’t have any confidence in this pick.

Kansas City Chiefs 24 Las Vegas Raiders 12

Pick against the spread: Las Vegas +13.5

Confidence: None

Baltimore Ravens at Kansas City Chiefs: 2024 Week 1 NFL Pick

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Baltimore Ravens (0-0) at Kansas City Chiefs (0-0)

These two teams last met in the AFC Championship last January and, even though that wasn’t that long ago, a lot has changed since then. In that game, the Ravens were at home and favored by 3.5 points, suggesting they were a noticeably better team, with about 1 in 4 games decided by less than three points. That made sense if you looked at how both teams fared throughout the season, as the Ravens had a +5.56% first down rate differential and a +1.23 yards per play differential in the regular season, while the Chiefs were at +3.55% and +0.82 respectively. 

However, the Chiefs hit their stride down the stretch last season, thanks to improved health from tight end Travis Kelce and the breakout of rookie wide receiver Rashee Rice, as well as improved play from quarterback Patrick Mahomes and their offensive line. That led to the Chiefs pulling the upset in Baltimore and going on to win their second straight Super Bowl in their next game.Now going into 2024, the Chiefs have a good chance to continue that high level of play, especially since they further upgraded their receiving corps with the additions of Xavier Worthy and Marquise Brown, though the latter will be out for this game.

Meanwhile, the Ravens suffered significant losses this off-season, losing a trio of offensive line starters, a trio of starters on defense, and talented defensive coordinator Mike Macdonald, none of whom were adequately replaced. The Ravens’ addition of running back Derrick Henry gets a lot of hype, but Henry is going into his age 30 season and might not be a huge upgrade over departed running back Gus Edwards at this stage of his career, especially since Henry won’t have anywhere near the same caliber of offensive line in front of him as Edwards did last season.

The Chiefs are now the ones favored at home in this game, albeit only by 3 points, suggesting they are the slightly better, but not significantly better team. I think the line is a little low though, as the distance between these two teams is enough to justify the Chiefs being favored by 3.5-5.5 points. The Chiefs are also in a good spot as defending Super Bowl Champions playing at home in week 1, a spot in which teams are 12-6-1 ATS since 2005. The Chiefs flopped in this spot a year ago, losing by one at home to the Lions as 4.5-point favorites, but the Chiefs were without both Travis Kelce and Chris Jones in that one and were facing a Lions team that was better than most realized, going on to come within a couple plays of a Super Bowl appearance last season. The Chiefs should have better luck this time around and there is enough here to justify betting them as 3-point home favorites.

Kansas City Chiefs 26 Baltimore Ravens 20

Pick against the spread: Kansas City -3

Confidence: Medium