Chiefs

Denver Broncos at Kansas City Chiefs: 2021 Week 13 NFL Pick

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Denver Broncos (6-5) at Kansas City Chiefs (7-4)

Many people wrote the Chiefs off when they got off to a 3-4 start, but there were always reasons to expect they would turn around. For one, the Chiefs started the season with the arguably toughest schedule in the league. They also struggled mightily in the turnover margin, starting the season with a -11 turnover margin through their first eight games. Turnover margins are highly unpredictable on a week-to-week basis and common sense suggested that the Chiefs, with one of the top quarterbacks in the league, would not continue to rank among the league worst in turnover margin, especially since so many of their interceptions came off tipped passes. 

On top of that, the Chiefs’ offense was still moving the ball as well as they ever had, with their defense dragging down the team’s performance significantly, as they were arguably the worst in the league to begin the season. Defense is the less predictive side of the ball, however, and the Chiefs had significant injury issues on that side of the ball early in the season, with safety Tyrann Mathieu, edge defender Frank Clark, interior defender Chris Jones, and cornerback Charvarius Ward all missing time. 

Their defense is now healthy, with all four of those players in the lineup, as well as a key mid-season addition in Melvin Ingram. The Chiefs’ turnover margin has also stabilized (+4 their past three games) and now they get to an easier part of their schedule as well. The Chiefs are on a 4-game winning streak and, looking at their remainder of their schedule, it’s possible they don’t lose a game the rest of the way if they stay healthy and play turnover neutral football. 

Even if they do lose another game, I don’t expect it to be this one, at home, coming out of a bye week, against a mediocre Broncos team. Denver is 6-5, but three of their wins were against terrible teams early in the season, when the Broncos were a lot healthier. In total, they are missing edge defender Von Miller, middle linebackers Josey Jewell and AJ Johnson, right guard Graham Glasgow, running back Melvin Gordon, and slot cornerback Bryce Callahan, who all began the season as key contributors for this team. Even including their solid start, the Broncos rank just 21st, 4th, 29th, and 20th in schedule adjusted offensive, defensive, special teams, and mixed efficiency on the season.

The Chiefs, on the other hand, rank 1st on offense and 2nd on special teams, with their 31st ranked defense being much improved in recent weeks, but having their rank dragged down by how terrible they were to begin the season. If their defense can even be an average unit the rest of the way, the Chiefs are among the toughest teams in the league and should still be considered the favorites to come out of the AFC. My calculated line has the Chiefs as 12.5-point favorites, so we’re getting value with the Chiefs at -9.5. It also helps that Andy Reid has been one of the best coaches in NFL history when given extra time, going 34-21 ATS in week one games and games following bye weeks in his career. This is my top pick this week.

Kansas City Chiefs 34 Denver Broncos 20

Pick against the spread: Kansas City -9.5

Confidence: Pick of the Week

Dallas Cowboys at Kansas City Chiefs: 2021 Week 11 NFL Pick

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Dallas Cowboys (7-2) at Kansas City Chiefs (6-4)

The Chiefs got a huge win in Las Vegas last week, winning by a final score of 41-14 against a decent Raiders team. They have always seemed like they were going to break through at some point, but their offense had been uncharacteristically struggling across the Chiefs previous three games, a stretch in which the Chiefs scored just 36 points. That same stretch saw them have significant improvement on defense though, as they finally had top edge defender Frank Clark, top safety Tyrann Mathieu, top interior defender Chris Jones, and starting cornerback Charvarius Ward healthy at the same time for the first time all season and gave up just 51 points across three games.

Even with the Chiefs’ recent offensive struggles, they still ranked among the league’s best in schedule adjusted offensive efficiency going into last week, so if their offense bounced back as expected, paired with a much healthier and improved defense, the Chiefs were going to be a dangerous team. That seems to have happened. The Chiefs still rank just 30th in schedule adjusted defensive efficiency, but they should be significantly better than that defensively going forward, while their offense and special teams rank 2nd and 1st respectively in schedule adjusted efficiency. 

Aside from injuries, the Chiefs’ biggest problem thus far has been the turnover margin, as they rank third worst in the league in turnover margin at -8. Turnover margin is not a predictive stat on a week-to-week basis though and, though I would expect any team in the Chiefs’ turnover margin situation to bounce back going forward, the Chiefs are even better equipped than most teams to bounce back, as having an elite quarterback like Patrick Mahomes is the best way to consistently perform well in the turnover margin. Prior to this season, the Chiefs were +23 in turnover margin across Mahomes’ first three seasons in the league combined and it wouldn’t be a surprise at all to see their turnover situation swing dramatically over the remainder of the season.

Now the biggest problem for the Chiefs is they have another tough game this week, despite having one of the toughest schedules in the league thus far, as they play host to the 7-2 Dallas Cowboys. The Chiefs actually probably have the better defense in this matchup, with the Cowboys ranking 24th in schedule adjusted defensive efficiency and missing their two best edge defenders DeMarcus Lawrence and Randy Gregory due to injuries, but the Cowboys are also the only team who ranks higher than the Chiefs in schedule adjusted offensive efficiency.

The Cowboys are also healthier than they have been on offense for most of the season, with their two stud tackles Tyron Smith and La’El Collins set to play with quarterback Dak Prescott in the same game for the the first time week one, as well as the return of starting wide receiver Michael Gallup for the first time since week one, to offset some of the absence of fellow starting wide receiver Amari Cooper, who is on the COVID list and will miss his first game of the season. The Chiefs, meanwhile, are missing starting right tackle Lucas Niang and will likely be without starting running back Clyde Edwards-Helaire again as well. 

Overall, I have these two teams about even, so we aren’t getting any value with either side, with the Chiefs favored by 2.5 points at home. The most likely outcome of two evenly matched teams like this facing off against each other is the home team winning by a field goal, so I am taking the Chiefs for pick ‘em purposes, but this line is right about where it should be and there are no situational edges for either team, so there is nothing worth betting on here.

Update: Tyron Smith will be out for the Cowboys and yet this line has stayed put at 2.5. I am going to up the confidence here a little bit.

Kansas City Chiefs 31 Dallas Cowboys 27

Pick against the spread: Kansas City -2.5

Confidence: Low

Kansas City Chiefs at Las Vegas Raiders: 2021 Week 10 NFL Pick

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Kansas City Chiefs (5-4) at Las Vegas Raiders (5-3)

This game is a tough call. On one hand, the Chiefs have played better than their 5-4 record, while the Raiders have played worse than their 5-3 record. The Chiefs’ biggest issues are they have faced one of the toughest schedules in the league (8th highest opponent’s DVOA), they have had one of the worst turnover margins in the league (2nd worst in the NFL at -9), and they have had one of the worst defenses in the league (31st in schedule adjusted defensive efficiency). 

The Chiefs offense has continued to rank among the best in the league on the season, ranking 2nd in schedule adjusted offensive efficiency, as they also have one of the best special teams (1st in special teams DVOA) and their other issues should resolve themselves going forward, as turnover margins are highly inconsistent on a week-to-week basis, the Chiefs’ defense has gotten significantly healthier since earlier this season and has played better in recent weeks as a result, and their schedule eases up relatively going forward. The Raiders, meanwhile, have faced a below average schedule, but they have had to go to overtime to win twice and have just a +7 point differential, while ranking 14th, 4th, and 26th in schedule adjusted efficiency on offense, defense, and special teams respectively. 

However, it seems like the public and the odds makers see things the same way, as the Chiefs are favored by 2.5 points on the road in Las Vegas. Given that, I am actually going to be taking the Raiders in this one, as I am actually a little bit concerned about the Chiefs’ offense, which, even though it ranks among the best in the league in yards per play and first down rate on the season, has slowed down significantly in both metrics over the past few weeks, coinciding with injuries at the running back position and on the offensive line. My calculated line has the Chiefs favored by 1.5, so we’re hardly getting any line value with the Raiders, but they would be my pick for pick ‘em purposes.

Kansas City Chiefs 26 Las Vegas Raiders 24

Pick against the spread: Las Vegas +2.5

Confidence: None

Green Bay Packers at Kansas City Chiefs: 2021 Week 9 NFL Pick

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Green Bay Packers (7-1) at Kansas City Chiefs (4-4)

Earlier this week, I was expecting to make a big play on the Chiefs in this one, when they opened with an even line. The Packers are 7-1, while the Chiefs are just 4-4, but that doesn’t tell the whole story. The Chiefs still rank 2nd in schedule adjusted offensive efficiency, despite having a down year by their standards, and their problems have been primarily concentrated on the defensive side of the ball, where they rank dead last in schedule adjusted defensive efficiency. 

Fortunately, offensive efficiency tends to be much more predictive week-to-week than defensive efficiency and, on top of that, the Chiefs have gotten healthier on defense, as starting cornerback Charvarius Ward, talented safety Tyrann Mathieu, and their two best defensive lineman Frank Clark and Chris Jones have only all played together just in the past two games, with all four missing some action early in the season. 

The Chiefs underwhelmed last week against the Giants, but they were likely caught looking forward to this bigger matchup with the Packers this week. The Chiefs have also had issues with turnovers, as they have the worst turnover margin in the league at -11, which has significantly capped their upside this season, but turnover margins tend to be highly inconsistent and unpredictable on a week-to-week basis and many of the Chiefs turnovers have been on deflected or tipped balls, so I don’t anticipate this being a problem all season. 

In fact, while I would expect any team with a turnover margin like the Chiefs have had thus far this season to improve in that aspect going forward, that should especially be true for the Chiefs, as having a top level quarterback is the only way to have any sort of consistent success in the turnover margin. Across Mahomes’ first three seasons in the league, the Chiefs had a combined +23 turnover margin, before Mahomes’ recent string of mostly unlikely interceptions led him to currently lead the league with 10 interceptions. I don’t see that continuing going forward and, with the Chiefs defense likely to improve going forward as well, the Chiefs should be much better going forward.

The Packers, meanwhile, have not played as well as their record suggests, as they rank 9th, 22nd, and 27th respectively in schedule adjusted offensive, defensive, and special teams efficiency respectively and don’t have any overly impressive wins. Just two of their wins came by more than 10 points and those came in games in which the Packers were down at halftime at home to the winless Lions and in which the Packers were outgained at home on a per play basis by a mediocre Washington team. 

The Packers did go into Arizona and win last week, giving the Cardinals their first loss of the season, but the Packers were very reliant in the turnover battle in that game, losing the first down rate battle by 5.93%, but winning by a field goal in a game in which the Packers won the turnover battle by three, including a late takeaway to seal the game when the Cardinals were in range to at least send the game to overtime, if not win outright. The Packers scored off the Cardinals’ other two takeaways too, so if any one of those turnovers doesn’t happen, the Packers could have easily lost. Given how inconsistent turnover margins are on a week-to-week basis, the Packers can’t count on that again and, given that the Cardinals outperformed the Packers in other key metrics, the Cardinals would likely win a rematch more often than not.

Because most of the Packers wins have been close, while most of the Chiefs issues have been concentrated on defense or have come as a result of a fluky turnover margin, I thought these two teams were at worst even going into this game, with the Chiefs holding an edge if anyone did, so getting them on an even line at home was a good value. Unfortunately, this game has changed drastically since earlier this week, with Aaron Rodgers set to mess this game after testing positive for COVID and the line shifting a whopping 7.5 points as a result, now favoring the Chiefs by that amount. 

About half of NFL games are decided by seven points or fewer, so that’s a drastical line movement and I don’t think it’s warranted. As good as Aaron Rodgers is, his backup Jordan Love is a recent first round pick who made significant improvements this off-season, so I don’t expect quite as big of a dropoff as the oddsmakers and public seem to. The Chiefs could also be in a look ahead spot now that Rodgers is out, with a big divisional matchup against the Raiders on deck and, much like we saw out of the Chiefs last week against the Giants, we could see them play down to the level of their competition again this week what could be a look ahead spot for the Chiefs with Rodgers out. I am still taking the Chiefs for pick ’em purposes because we are still getting a little bit of line value with them, but this one is no longer bettable.

Kansas City Chiefs 33 Green Bay Packers 24

Pick against the spread: Kansas City -7.5

Confidence: Low

New York Giants at Kansas City Chiefs: 2021 Week 8 NFL Pick

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New York Giants (2-5) at Kansas City Chiefs (3-4)

The Chiefs shockingly scored just 3 points last week against a Titans defense that was mediocre statistically coming into last week. Despite that uncharacteristically poor performance, the Chiefs still rank 1st on the season in first down rate at 39.5% and 5th in yards per play at 6.2. Their defense has been the problem for most of the season, ranking dead last in first down rate allowed at 38.3% and in yards per play allowed at 6.6, but defensive performance is much less predictive week-to-week than offensive performance and the Chiefs are much healthier on defense now than they have been all season.

Last week was the Chiefs’ first game with interior defender Chris Jones, cornerback Charvarius Ward, edge defender Frank Clark, and safety Tyrann Mathieu active at the same time, resulting in a solid defensive performance that was wasted by their terrible offensive performance. Assuming the Chiefs can bounce back on offense, their defense has enough talent to be a complementary unit going forward. The turnover margin has also been a problem for the Chiefs, as they rank tied for last with the Jaguars with a -10 turnover margin, but many of their turnovers have been on tipped balls or drops and turnover margin is not a predictive stat on a week-to-week basis in general. 

I would expect any team in the Chiefs’ turnover margin situation to bounce back going forward, but the Chiefs are better equipped than most teams to bounce back, as having an elite quarterback like Patrick Mahomes is the best way to consistently perform well in the turnover margin. Prior to this season, the Chiefs were +23 in turnover margin across Mahomes’ first three seasons in the league combined and it wouldn’t be a surprise at all to see their turnover situation swing dramatically over the remainder of the season. This line shifted from favoring the Chiefs by 13 on the early line last week to favoring them by 9.5 this week, as a result of the Chiefs’ disappointing performance in Tennessee and the Giants win over the Panthers last week, but that is a little bit of an overreaction. 

Unfortunately, we’re not getting quite enough line value with the Chiefs for them to be worth betting because I do think the Giants are still a little underrated, as two of their losses came by a combined four points, while their loss to the Cowboys was a tied game when they lost Daniel Jones to a concussion. My calculated line is Kansas City -11.5, so we’re getting some line value with the Chiefs, but they’re also in a bit of a questionable spot, with a much tougher game against the Packers on deck after a short week, following this Monday Night Football contest.

Favorites of a touchdown or more cover at just a 42.6% rate all-time before facing an opponent who has a winning percentage over 50% higher than their current opponent, which applies to the Chiefs this week. It’s possible the Chiefs won’t overlook the Giants, given that the Chiefs are coming off of an embarrassing loss, but they also might feel this will be an easy game to “get right” with and not focus as much as they would if this was a tougher opponent. There is enough uncertainty here for the Chiefs to not be worth a bet, even if they should be the right side for pick ‘em purposes.

Kansas City Chiefs 31 New York Giants 20

Pick against the spread: Kansas City -9.5

Confidence: Low

Kansas City Chiefs at Tennessee Titans: 2021 Week 7 NFL Pick

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Kansas City Chiefs (3-3) at Tennessee Titans (4-2)

The Chiefs lost at home to the Bills a couple weeks ago and then the Bills went to Tennessee the following week and lost as 6-point favorites. Now with the Chiefs going to Tennessee, they are only 4-point favorites and seen as a popular pick to be upset this week. However, that doesn’t tell the whole story, as the Bills brought their best effort to knock off the Chiefs and then subsequently were flat the following week against a Titans team that brought its best effort to knock off the newly anointed AFC favorite. 

Now it could be the Titans’ turn to be flat. It’s tough to bring your best effort for back-to-back tough games and teams cover at just 40.8% rate all-time after a win as home underdogs of 5 or more. The Titans are also dealing with some injury absences, most notably left tackle Taylor Lewan, who is out with a concussion. The Chiefs are, meanwhile, significantly better than their 3-3 record, as they have faced a tough schedule, have struggled mightily with turnovers (-8, second worst in the NFL), and have had significant defensive injuries that have heavily contributed to them ranking dead last in yards per play allowed. 

All three of their wins came against opponents who are 4-2 or better and the Chiefs lost the turnover battle by a combined 8 across those three losses, while only being outscored by 25 points total, in games in which key defensive players were missing. At the same time, the Chiefs haven’t been much healthier in their three wins, which have come by a combined 34 points, despite only an even turnover margin across those three games. Their only one score win has come against another tough team, the Cleveland Browns. 

Turnover margin is one of the least predictive stats and I would expect any team that has struggled with turnover as much as they have to be significantly better going forward, but that’s especially the case for the Chiefs, as having an elite quarterback is one of the few ways to consistently fare well in the turnover margin. Overall, the Chiefs were +23 in turnover margin in Patrick Mahomes’ first 3 seasons in the league prior to this season. Even this season, most of Mahomes’ interceptions have been off of drops or tipped balls, which are unlikely to continue recurring at this rate. 

The Chiefs defense should also be a lot healthier this week. So far this season, defensive linemen Frank Clark (3 games missed) and Chris Jones (2 games missed), cornerback Charvarius Ward (4 games missed), and safety Tyrann Mathieu (1 game missed) have yet to play in the same game all year and those are arguably their four most important defensive players. The Chiefs should have at least three of them back this week with Ward, the least important of the three, being the only one of the four to even be legitimately questionable this week. Most notably, they will get Chris Jones back from his absence this week and he’s one of the best defensive linemen in the league when healthy. 

Aside from turnovers, which I mentioned earlier as unlikely to continue, the Chiefs’ offense has been as effective as ever this season, leading the league with a 40.6% first down rate that is even more impressive when you factor in schedule adjustments (+10.71% first down rate above expected), so if their defense can even be a complementary unit, this team should be as tough to beat as ever going forward. Even at 3-3, they could easily be considered a Super Bowl favorite in the long-term.

Defense is a much less predictive side of the ball anyway, but I would expect them to be a lot better on that side of the ball going forward, while the offense should continue dominating, barring key injuries of their own. I was hoping for a better line after the Titans won last weekend, but even with the Chiefs as 4-point favorites, we are getting line value, as my calculated line has the Chiefs favored by a touchdown. This is still worth a small bet, as somehow the Chiefs have wound up underrated.

Update: After considering the Titans’ injuries more, I am upping this bet. The Titans will have Bud Dupree active despite barely practicing this week, but he’s struggled mightily this season, while safety Amani Hooker, who has played very well when on the field this year, is inactive after injuring himself in practice on Friday. The Titans were already down a pair of starting cornerbacks and their top linebacker from a defense that was already underwhelming entering the season, so it’s hard to see them having much success at all slowing down the Chiefs this week. This line remains at 4, while my calculated line is Kansas City -8.5, so we’re getting a lot of value with Kansas City.

Kansas City Chiefs 38 Tennessee Titans 30

Pick against the spread: Kansas City -4

Confidence: High

Kansas City Chiefs at Washington Football Team: 2021 Week 6 NFL Pick

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Kansas City Chiefs (2-3) at Washington Football Team (2-3)

The Chiefs are 2-3 right now, but there isn’t much real reason for concern. Their issues have almost entirely been concentrated on the defensive side of the ball, as they lead the league in first down rate, but also in yards per play allowed, and the offensive side of the ball is much more predictive week-to-week. The Chiefs have also been better on offense relative to how bad they’ve been on defense, as there is a bigger gap in first down rate between the Chiefs and the 4th ranked Chargers than there is between the Chargers and the 25th ranked Raiders.

The Chiefs have also faced a relatively tough schedule, with the Browns, Chargers, Ravens, and Bills all likely being playoff qualifiers and their only relatively easy game coming against the Eagles, who aren’t a bad team either. Despite that schedule, the Chiefs could easily be 4-1 if not for the turnover margin. Turnover margin is one of the least predictive metrics in the league and the Chiefs have the second worst turnover margin in the league at -7, which has cost them at least a couple games.

That would be unlikely to continue for any team, but that’s especially the case for the Chiefs, as having an elite quarterback is one of the few ways to consistently fare well in the turnover margin. Overall, the Chiefs were +23 in turnover margin in Mahomes’ first 3 seasons in the league prior to this season. Even this season, most of Mahomes’ interceptions have been off of drops or tipped balls, which are unlikely to continue recurring at this rate. 

Washington, meanwhile, could be 0-5 right now, if not for close wins over below average teams in the Giants and Falcons, with their three losses coming by a combined 37 points. They are starting a backup quarterback on offense, while their defense hasn’t been nearly as good as a year ago, as they aren’t getting the same level of play out of their back seven. Their offense could be in even more trouble than usual this week, as their injuries are piling up. 

Washington already lost top offensive lineman Brandon Scherff a couple weeks ago, but they will also be without promising rookie right tackle Samuel Cosmi, while their receiving corps will be without #2 receiver Curtis Samuel, tight end Logan Thomas, and could be without #1 receiver Terry McLaurin, who could be limited even if he plays, after injuring his hamstring in practice on Friday. That will make life even tougher for backup quarterback Taylor Heinicke.

The public doesn’t seem to be buying the Chiefs’ record, betting the Chiefs as touchdown favorites, even though this line has shifted up from Kansas City -5.5 on the early line last season, so we’re not getting great line value with the Chiefs. However, they should be able to handle this game pretty easily, as they still have a dominant offense and this is their easiest game of the season thus far. This isn’t a big play, but the Chiefs are still undervalued, as my calculated line has them as 9.5 point favorites, so they’re worth betting.

Update: Some -6.5s have popped up. This is a bigger play at this number. As long as the Chiefs can avoid fluky turnovers, there still isn’t a team in the league I trust more to score a touchdown on any given drive, so it’ll be tough for this underwhelming Washington team to keep it within one score.

Kansas City Chiefs 34 Washington Football Team 24

Pick against the spread: Kansas City -6.5

Confidence: High

Buffalo Bills at Kansas City Chiefs: 2021 Week 5 NFL Pick

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Buffalo Bills (3-1) at Kansas City Chiefs (2-2)

The Chiefs are in a position that is new to them in the Patrick Mahomes era, as they are just 2-2 through the first four games of the season, but there isn’t any real reason for panic on this team. Their two losses could have easily been wins, as their loss to the Ravens came by just 1 point and their loss to the Chargers came in a game in which they won the first down rate battle by 7.92%, but lost a one-score game because of a highly uncharacteristic -4 turnover margin, which is not predictive of future turnover issues. 

Their offense has not been the problem, as they have the highest first down rate in the league by a wide margin and that is the most predictive offensive metric. The Bills have the best defense in the league in yards per play allowed, which is the most predictive defensive metric, but offensive performance is more predictive of future success than defensive performance and the Chiefs’ offense has been significantly better in first down rate relative to the rest of the league than the Bills’ defense has been relative to the rest of the league in yards per play. 

Despite that, this line is only favoring the Chiefs by 2.5 points, suggesting these two teams are about equal, or even that the Bills are a little bit better. The Bills have been impressive since shaking off a fluke week 1 loss to the Steelers, but their schedule has been pretty easy overall and I don’t think this line would be this low if the Chiefs were 4-0, which they could have been if a couple non-predictive things had gone differently. My calculated line favors the Chiefs by five points, so we’re getting enough line value with the Chiefs to take them in a game in which they basically just need to win to cover the spread.

Kansas City Chiefs 30 Buffalo Bills 24

Pick against the spread: Kansas City -2.5

Confidence: Medium

Kansas City Chiefs at Philadelphia Eagles: 2021 Week 4 NFL Pick

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Kansas City Chiefs (1-2) at Philadelphia Eagles (1-2)

The Chiefs have started the season 1-2, matching last season’s regular season loss total, but I am not too concerned about them going forward. They have faced a relatively tough schedule overall and both of their losses could have easily been wins, including a game last week against the Chargers in which they won the first down rate battle by 7.92%, but lost by six because of a -4 turnover margin, which is an relatively non-predictive metric and highly uncharacteristic for this team. Their offense still leads the league in first down rate, which is the most predictive offensive metric and offense is the more predictive side of the ball in general.

All of that being said, I still feel like the Chiefs are being overvalued. Now dating back to week 9 of last season, the Chiefs have failed to cover the spread in 11 straight regular season games and, including playoffs, they’ve covered just once in their past 14 games. This spread has the Chiefs favored by a touchdown, but their average margin of victory in their past 10 wins is just 5 points per game with just one win by more than 6 points. The odds makers know they can boost the spread on the Chiefs and still get bettors willing to take them and it doesn’t seem like that has stopped.

As good as Patrick Mahomes and his playmakers are, their new look offensive line hasn’t been as much of an upgrade as expected and their defense looks like a below average unit, so the Chiefs could easily continue playing a lot of close games. I’m not confident enough in the Eagles to bet on them, as they are missing their top edge rusher Brandon Graham and a trio of starting offensive linemen in left tackle Jordan Mailata, right guard Brandon Brooks, and left guard Isaac Seumalo with injury,, all of whom were badly missed in last week’s blowout loss to the Cowboys, but my calculated line has the Chiefs favored by just 6 points, so we’re at least getting some line value with the Eagles. This is a low confidence pick, but I would expect a relatively close game.

Update: The Eagles surprisingly will also be without right tackle Lane Johnson due to a personal matter, meaning they will be without four of their five week one starters on the offensive line. However, the Chiefs will be without top edge rusher Frank Clark and a pair of cornerbacks, Charvarius Ward and Rashad Fenton, so I am not changing anything on this pick.

Kansas City Chiefs 30 Philadelphia Eagles 24

Pick against the spread: Philadelphia +7

Confidence: Low

Los Angeles Chargers at Kansas City Chiefs: 2021 Week 3 NFL Pick

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Los Angeles Chargers (1-1) at Kansas City Chiefs (1-1)

The Chiefs have gotten off to a 1-1 start and, while they could easily be 2-0 if a couple things had gone differently, the same is true of them being 0-2. Their offense has not been the problem, as they ranked 2nd only behind the Browns in first down rate through two weeks, but their defense has been a huge problem, leading the league in yards per play allowed by a wide margin (7.6 vs. 6.9). The Chiefs defense is not impressive and could have problems all season, but offensive performance is much more predictive than defensive performance going forward, so the Chiefs should still be one of the top teams in the league overall when all is said and done, especially when their schedule gets easier, after starting with a pair of talented teams in the Browns and Ravens.

The Chargers aren’t a bad team, but they’re not as good as the two teams the Ravens have faced thus far and they may be a little overrated. They are better than a year ago, but they weren’t as good as their 7-9 record suggested last season. In total, just three of the Chargers last eight wins have come by four points or fewer, with the exceptions coming against the 1-15 Jaguars, the 2-14 Jets, and the Chiefs’ backups in week 17 of last season. The Chargers also are dealing with some key injuries, as they will be without top cornerback Chris Harris for the second straight game and, more importantly, stud edge defender Joey Bosa is highly questionable after not practicing all week.

Without Bosa, it’s hard to see the Chargers keeping this one close, so it’s a surprise this line has only shifted from Kansas City -6.5 on the early line last week to -7 this week with Bosa’s status highly uncertain. It’s possible this line could skyrocket if Bosa is ruled out, but if not, I will likely be placing a bet on the Chiefs. I’m not locking any bets in until I know Bosa’s status, but the Chiefs are likely to be the right side for pick ‘em purposes regardless.

Update: Bosa is playing, but -6.5 popped up Sunday morning. That is worth a bet.

Kansas City Chiefs 34 Los Angeles Chargers 24

Pick against the spread: Kansas City -6.5

Confidence: Medium