Colts

Indianapolis Colts at Las Vegas Raiders: 2022 Week 10 NFL Pick

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Indianapolis Colts (3-5-1) at Las Vegas Raiders (2-6)

The Colts have had a disastrous season. Their offense has been horrible (26th in offensive schedule adjusted efficiency) and attempts to improve it, by benching veteran quarterback Matt Ryan for unproven 2021 6th round pick Sam Ehlinger and by firing offensive coordinator Marcus Brady, have arguably made it worse, culminating in a 2.0 yards per play performance in New England last week, which ultimately lost head coach Frank Reich his job. 

Making matters even worse, instead of promoting an interim head coach from the inside, the Colts pulled a wild card and hired former center Jeff Saturday, who has never coached above the high school level and who has not been in this locker room all season, leaving them in a precarious coaching situation at say the least, without experienced coordinators either, with Marcus Brady being fired last week and long-time defensive coordinator Matt Eberflus not really being replaced this off-season. 

The Colts are also without top linebacker Shaq Leonard, likely for the season, although he’s barely played anyway this season and the Colts still rank 12th in defensive schedule adjusted efficiency, the only reason they have managed to win three games this season. With Ehlinger remaining under center and no offensive leadership though, their offense is likely going to be too much for their defense to overcome going forward, especially without Leonard.

The Raiders have also had a disastrous season, starting 2-6, despite making the playoffs a year ago and having expectations of going on a deeper run this year, after trading away their first two draft picks for Davante Adams. The Raiders aren’t getting blown out for the most part though, with five of their six losses coming by seven points or fewer and both of their wins coming by multiple scores. Overall, they have a -18 point differential, while ranking 21st in schedule adjusted overall efficiency, 1.5 points below average, which is disappointing, but nearly as bad as the Colts, who are 3.5 points below average.

The injuries are starting to pile up, with talented slot receiver Hunter Renfrow, talented tight end Darren Waller, and top cornerback Nate Hobbs among other absences, but they are still only 2 points below average in my roster rankings, as opposed to 6 points below average for the Colts. My calculated line is Las Vegas -5, so we’re getting some line value with them as 4.5-point favorites, especially once you factor in the disarray around the Colts coaching staff. There isn’t enough here for the Raiders to be worth betting, but this should be a relatively easy win for them, like their multi-score wins over the Broncos and Texans.

Las Vegas Raiders 24 Indianapolis Colts 17

Pick against the spread: Las Vegas -4.5

Confidence: Low

Indianapolis Colts at New England Patriots: 2022 Week 9 NFL Pick

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Indianapolis Colts (3-4-1) at New England Patriots (4-4)

The Patriots have struggled on offense this season, ranking 28th in schedule adjusted efficiency, but they’re at least somewhat better in my roster rankings, about a half point below average on offense, while their defense and special teams rank 11th and 7th respectively in schedule adjusted efficiency. Overall, the Patriots are two points above average in my roster rankings, significantly ahead of the Colts, who are seven points below average, in large part due to starting an inexperienced late round draft pick quarterback Sam Ehlinger, which will especially be a problem against Bill Belichick and the Patriots, who will have a big advantage in Ehlinger’s second career start. We’re not getting great line value with the Patriots at -5.5, but they should be the right side for pick ‘em purposes.

New England Patriots 20 Indianapolis Colts 13

Pick against the spread: New England -5.5

Confidence: Low

Washington Commanders at Indianapolis Colts: 2022 Week 8 NFL Pick

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Washington Commanders (3-4) at Indianapolis Colts (3-3-1)

Both of these teams acquired veteran quarterbacks this off-season, with the Commanders taking Carson Wentz off the Colts hands so they could replace him with ex-Falcon Matt Ryan, but neither quarterback will play in this game, with Wentz injured and Ryan getting benched for young, inexperienced backup Sam Ehlinger. Wentz’ replacement Taylor Heinicke isn’t a significant drop off though, while Ehlinger has no regular season experience and should be considered the more questionable quarterback. Despite that, the Colts are favored by a full field goal at home. My calculated line has the Colts as 2-point favorites, so we’re getting some line value with the Commanders, although not nearly enough to justify a bet. The Commanders should be the right side, but for pick ‘em purposes only.

Indianapolis Colts 20 Washington Commanders 19

Pick against the spread: Washington +3

Confidence: Low

Indianapolis Colts at Tennessee Titans: 2022 Week 7 NFL Pick

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Indianapolis Colts (3-2-1) at Tennessee Titans (3-2)

When these two teams met for the first time this season back in week 4, the Titans pulled the road upset by a final score of 24-17. With this rematch being in Tennessee, many are assuming that the Titans will have an easier time winning than they did in Indianapolis, but that’s not how divisional rivalries tend to go. In fact, when a team pulls a road upset against a divisional opponent and then is favored at home in a same season, regular season rematch, they only win the game about 59.3% of the time. 

That might sound like a lot, but it’s not when you compare it to divisional home favorites in all situations, who win the game about 68.1% of the time. On top of that, divisional home favorites facing teams they already beat that season as road underdogs tend to struggle to cover the spread in the rematch, doing so at just a 42.6% rate. In the first matchup between these two teams, the Colts were the ones in a bad spot, having just pulled a huge home upset over the Chiefs the week prior (teams cover the spread at just a 41.3% rate after a home upset win as underdogs of 5 points or more), but this time around the Titans are more likely to be flat.

On top of that, the way the Titans’ won the previous game between these two teams was somewhat fluky, as the Titans won the turnover battle by three, which is not predictive week-to-week. In terms of first down rate and yards per play, which are significantly more predictive, the Titans had the slight edge in first down rate (1.12%), but were outgained by over a yard per play (1.13). The Colts also have the significant edge in schedule adjusted efficiency, which is based on yards per play and first down rate, ranking six points ahead of the Titans. 

My roster rankings have these two teams closer than that, but the Colts still have a 1.5 point edge, so they should be considered the better team however you look at it. Despite being the better team in the better spot, the Colts are 2.5-point road underdogs in Tennessee, suggesting these two teams are about even. My calculated line is Indianapolis -1, even before you take into account the Colts being in a better spot, so the Colts should be the ones slightly favored in this game, rather than the Titans. I wish we were getting a full field goal with the Colts, but they’re still worth a small bet at +2.5 and the money line is a good value as well, as the Colts should be considered no worse than 50/50 to win this rematch.

Indianapolis Colts 20 Tennessee Titans 17 Upset Pick +120

Pick against the spread: Tennessee +2.5

Confidence: Medium

Jacksonville Jaguars at Indianapolis Colts: 2022 Week 6 NFL Pick

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Jacksonville Jaguars (2-3) at Indianapolis Colts (2-2-1)

The Jaguars have a significantly better point differential than the Colts (+31 vs. -25) and won the first matchup between these two teams earlier this season in convincing fashion (24-0), but a lot of the gap between these two teams has been because of turnovers, which are not that predictive week-to-week. On the season, the Colts are -6 in turnover margin, as opposed to +1 for the Jaguars, and the Jaguars won the turnover battle in the first matchup by 3. That game was also in Jacksonville and the Colts were missing their two best wide receivers Michael Pittman and Alec Pierce, who will be active for this rematch in Indianapolis.

My roster rankings have these two teams about even, which unfortunately doesn’t give us any line value, with the Colts being favored by 2 points at home, about where my calculated line would be. I am taking the Colts for pick ‘em purposes for now, just because I think the home team winning by a field goal is the most likely outcome, but there is some uncertainty over the status of Colts star running back Jonathan Taylor, who missed last week and was limited in practice this week. I am expecting him to play, but, if he doesn’t, I would change this pick to the Jaguars, for a no confidence pick either way.

Update: Taylor is out, so I am changing to a no confidence pick on the Jaguars instead.

Indianapolis Colts 17 Jacksonville Jaguars 16

Pick against the spread: Jacksonville +2

Confidence: None

Indianapolis Colts at Denver Broncos: 2022 Week 5 NFL Pick

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Indianapolis Colts (1-2-1) at Denver Broncos (2-2)

Normally I like to take non-divisional home favorites on Thursdays, as teams tend to be at a serious disadvantage if they have to travel on the road to face a non-divisional opponent that is comparable to or better than them. As a result, non-divisional home favorites cover at a 64.2% rate on Thursday Night Football, including 65.1% when favored by more than a field goal. Unfortunately, we’re getting line value with the visitor in this game, which offsets that. This line favored the Broncos by just 2.5 points on the early line last week, but that has since shifted to 3.5, a bigger shift than you might think, given that 1 out of 6 games are decided by exactly a field goal.

The shift is probably because the Colts because to the Titans and had two of their most important players get injured, with every down linebacker Shaq Leonard out and feature back Jonathan Taylor questionable, but Leonard has been out for most of the season anyway and Taylor seems more likely than not to suit up, even if he’s not at full strength. The Broncos also had key players go down with injury last week, losing feature back Javonte Williams and top edge defender Randy Gregory, a big loss for a Broncos team that had already gotten off to an underwhelming start to the season.

The Broncos are 2-2, but they’ve faced one of the easiest schedules in the league and have especially struggled on offense, ranking 31st in first down rate, a concern because offensive performance tends to be significantly more predictive than defensive or special teams performance. Their offense could get better going forward as new quarterback Russell Wilson and new offensive minded head coach Nathaniel Hackett develop better chemistry, but the loss of Williams on an already injury plagued offensive unit doesn’t help matters.

In terms of overall schedule adjusted efficiency, which weights offense more heavily and takes into account strength of schedule, the Broncos enter this game ranked 31st in the NFL, 6.5 points below average, significantly behind the Colts, who rank a middling 17th. We’re only four games into the season, which is a small sample size, and my roster rankings have a much smaller gap between these two teams, giving the Colts a one point edge, but it’s hard to see how the Broncos deserve to be 3.5-point favorites, even in a good spot on a short week and even if Jonathan Taylor ends up not playing for the Colts. The Colts aren’t bettable this week, but they should be the right side for pick ‘em purposes at +3.5, though I would drop all confidence on them if Taylor ultimately did get ruled out.

Update: Taylor has been ruled out, despite saying earlier this week that he expected to play. I’m still on the Colts, but for no confidence. These two teams are about even with the Colts missing Taylor, so in a normal circumstance, the +3.5 would still be intriguing, but this is also a tough spot for the Colts on a short week.

Denver Broncos 23 Indianapolis Colts 20

Pick against the spread: Indianapolis +3.5

Confidence: None

Tennessee Titans at Indianapolis Colts: 2022 Week 4 NFL Pick

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Tennessee Titans (1-2) at Indianapolis Colts (1-1-1)

The Colts surprisingly got their first victory of the season last week in an upset win over the Chiefs, but the Chiefs missed a makeable field goal and extra point in the 3-point loss, so the Chiefs easily could have won, even though they lost the turnover battle. In terms of first down rate and yards per play, the Colts lost by 5.50% and 1.50 and those are much more predictive week-to-week than turnovers and opponents’ missed kicks. 

That win also puts the Colts in a tough spot this week, as teams tend to struggle off of big home upset wins, covering the spread at just a 41.5% rate all-time the week after a home win as underdogs of 5 points or more. Making matters even worse for the Colts, they have to play another game against the Broncos in four days and favorites cover at just a 42.9% rate before Thursday Night Football. It wouldn’t be a surprise at all to see the Colts overlook the 1-2 Titans a little bit in this spot.

That being said, I am not going to bet on the Titans this week because of all of their injuries. Already without talented left tackle Taylor Lewan and top edge defender Harold Landry for the season, the Titans will also be without top linebacker Zach Cunningham and talented starting safety Amani Hooker in this game, while the Colts could get back stud linebacker Shaq Leonard for the first time this season, which would be a huge re-addition.

I’m still taking the Titans because I think this line is fair, favoring the Colts by 3.5 points, a bigger line than you might think, given that 1 in 4 games are decided by 3 points or fewer, and because the Colts are in such a bad spot. However, the only way I would bet on the Titans is if not only Leonard didn’t play for the Colts, but also stud interior defender DeForest Buckner, who is considered a gametime decision. If they’re both out and this line stays above three, I would probably bet on the Titans, but, unless that happens, this pick is for pick ‘em purposes only.

Indianapolis Colts 23 Tennessee Titans 20

Pick against the spread: Tennessee +3.5

Confidence: Low

Kansas City Chiefs at Indianapolis Colts: 2022 Week 3 NFL Pick

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Kansas City Chiefs (2-0) at Indianapolis Colts (0-1-1)

The Colts have gotten off to a 0-1-1 start, but they still rank 17th in overall efficiency, with their biggest problem thus far being a -4 turnover margin, which is not predictive week-to-week. However, they have faced one of the easiest schedules in the league across the first two weeks of the season, playing the Texans and Jaguars, two of the least talented teams in the league on paper, so their performance has been pretty underwhelming overall. 

Their underwhelming performance is not terribly surprising though, considering the Colts lost a pair of offensive line starters this off-season and are playing without their most important defensive player Shaq Leonard to begin the season. The Colts do get top receivers Michael Pittman and Alec Pierce back from one-game absences this week, but are still a below average team in my roster rankings, especially with Matt Ryan seemingly showing his age, in his age 37 season.

The public and odds makers seem to be catching on that the Colts are not as good as expected this season, with this line shifting significantly from favoring the Chiefs by 3 on the early line last week to 5.5 this week, but I still think we are getting significant line value with the Chiefs, who I have calculated as 10-point favorites. That has as much to do with the Chiefs legitimately being one of the top teams in the league as it has to do with the Colts being a below average team without Leonard. 

Overall, the Chiefs rank 2nd in the league in overall efficiency, only behind the Bills, led by an offense that leads the league in efficiency by about 1.5 points over the next best team and a defense that is significantly improved over a year ago, ranking 11th in defensive efficiency, despite facing a pair of high level quarterbacks in Kyler Murray and Justin Herbert. That largely mirrors my roster rankings, in which the Chiefs actually rank first, ahead of the currently banged up Bills. This isn’t a huge play, but the Chiefs are worth betting, even with this line shooting up in the past week. It shouldn’t be difficult for them to beat the Colts by multiple scores.

Kansas City Chiefs 30 Indianapolis Colts 20

Pick against the spread: Kansas City -5.5

Confidence: Medium

Indianapolis Colts at Jacksonville Jaguars: 2022 Week 2 NFL Pick

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Indianapolis Colts (0-0-1) at Jacksonville Jaguars (0-1)

The Colts opened the season with a tie in Houston. They fared well in more predictive stats like yards per play differential (+1.35) and first down rate differential (+8.09%), playing to a tie primarily because of special teams and turnovers, which are significantly less predictive, but it was still an underwhelming performance against a Texans team that still figures to be one of the worst in the league and it’s likely a sign of things to come for a team which lost a pair of starting offensive linemen this off-season and which is playing without top defensive player Shaq Leonard, who remains out after off-season back surgery.

This week, the Colts head to Jacksonville to face a Jaguars team which is underwhelming, but which is also a step up in competition from the Texans. The Jaguars lost their first game of the season in Washington, but won the first down rate (+0.20%) and yards per play (+0.61) battle in a 6-point loss in which they lost the turnover battle by two. I think the Jaguars are a little too competitive of a team for the Colts to be getting more than a field goal on the road against them and the Colts are in a tough spot having played to a tie last week, with teams covering at just a 43.3% rate after a tie all-time, which drops at 31.2% on the road. There isn’t quite enough here for the Jaguars to be worth betting, but they should be the right side for pick ‘em purposes and, if this line stays put and injured Colts wide receiver Michael Pittman ends up not playing, I may consider a bet on Jacksonville.

Indianapolis Colts 23 Jacksonville Jaguars 20

Pick against the spread: Jacksonville +3.5

Confidence: Low

Indianapolis Colts at Houston Texans: 2022 Week 1 NFL Pick

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Indianapolis Colts (0-0) at Houston Texans (0-0)

The Texans won just four games last season and they were even worse than that suggests as their only win in which they won the first down rate battle was their week one home victory over a Jaguars team that finished with an even worse record at 3-14. In their other victory over the Jaguars, Texans lost the first down rate battle by 8.02%, only winning the game because they overperformed on third down (10/18 vs. 3/14), which is not as predictive as early downs. In their upset wins over the Chargers and Titans, the Texans won the turnover battle by 3 and 5 respectively, but lost the first down rate battle by 2.86% and 9.47% respectively. 

Meanwhile, most of the Texans’ losses were not close, coming by an average of 17.2 points per game, leading to the Texans ranking dead last in overall efficiency, over five points worse than the next closest team, with their defense and offense both ranking dead last in efficiency. They might not have had the worst record in the league last season, but they’re still probably starting from a lower base point than any team in the league. They should be better by default this season, but I would be surprised if they weren’t among the worst teams in the league this season and they’re likely to continue getting blown out by most above average opponents.

It’s unclear if the Colts are an above average opponent though. They finished last season ranked 12th in overall efficiency and upgraded their quarterback situation going from Carson Wentz to Matt Ryan, but they also lost a pair of offensive line starters and will start the season without their top linebacker Shaq Leonard, one of the best players in the league at his position. We’re still getting a little bit of line value with the Colts, calculated as 7.5-point favorites, but not nearly enough for them to be worth betting with any confidence. This is a pick for pick ‘em purposes only.

Indianapolis Colts 24 Houston Texans 16

Pick against the spread: Indianapolis -7

Confidence: None