Commanders

Washington Football Team at Philadelphia Eagles: 2021 Week 15 NFL Pick

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Washington Football Team (6-7) at Philadelphia Eagles (6-7)

Earlier this week, the Eagles were 4-point home favorites in this game and I was strongly considering placing a bet on them. Both teams are 6-7, but the Eagles have a much better point differential at +46 (12th in the NFL), as opposed to -58 for Washington (24th in the NFL), as Washington has benefited from a 5-3 record in one-score games, while the Eagles are 1-4, with five of their six wins coming by double digits. Since the start of the week, Washington has had a COVID outbreak big enough to reschedule this game, including the potential absence of their top two quarterbacks, among other key players, but this line has only jumped to 6.5 for this rescheduled game on Tuesday night, which is barely enough of an adjustment for the non-quarterbacks who are missing this game for Washington.

That line suggests that Washington is expected to be healthier than currently expected, but that is still a big if at this point and, even if expected starting quarterback Taylor Heinicke is able to play, my calculated line is still Philadelphia -7, so we’re getting line value with them regardless. If both Heinicke and backup Kyle Allen are out, as well as top offensive lineman Brandon Scherff and two of their best defensive players, safety Kamren Curl and cornerback Kendall Fuller, my calculated line would favor the Eagles by 10, which would give us significant line value.

The Eagles haven’t been totally immune to losing players to COVID protocols and will be without starting guard Landon Dickerson, but their offensive line is still healthier than they have been for a lot of the season, while their defense is as healthy as they’ve been in weeks. The Eagles rank 10th, 15th, 17th, and 9th respectively in offensive, defensive, special teams, and mixed efficiency and are arguably better than that in their current state, while Washington is currently expected to start a third string quarterback and be without several key players. This is likely to be the Eagles’ six double digit win (and Washington’s fifth double digit loss), so I want to lock this in at +6.5 before the line increases to a touchdown or higher.

Philadelphia Eagles 27 Washington Football Team 17

Pick against the spread: Philadelphia -6.5

Confidence: Medium

Dallas Cowboys at Washington Football Team: 2021 Week 14 NFL Pick

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Dallas Cowboys (8-4) at Washington Football Team (6-6)

The Cowboys have slowed down since their 6-1 start, falling to 8-4 after losing three of their last five games, but their big problem has really just been that they haven’t been healthy, most notably missing their top two edge defenders DeMarcus Lawrence and Randy Gregory and their top two wide receivers Amari Cooper and Ceedee Lamb, and all four of those players will play this week. Given that, the Cowboys are well positioned to continue their winning ways going forward.

In addition to those four players, the Cowboys also have other key players who missed time and have since returned, like right guard Zack Martin, right tackle La’El Collins, left tackle Tyron Smith, wide receiver Michael Gallup, and, of course, quarterback Dak Prescott. In fact, this game will be the first time all season that the Cowboys will have all nine of the aforementioned players available. As healthy as they’ve been all year, the Cowboys have one of the best rosters in the NFL and should be one of the top contenders going forward if they can avoid further injuries.

Washington, meanwhile, has won four straight games since a 2-6 start, but many of their wins have been close, as they have gone 5-2 in one score games and have a -51 point differential that ranks just 25th in the NFL, as opposed to a 6th rank +86 point differential for the Cowboys, despite all of their key players who have missed time. Washington has faced one of the toughest schedules in the NFL, but Dallas isn’t far behind them, having also faced a tough schedule.

My calculated line says the Cowboys should be favored by more than a touchdown in this game, so we’re getting a lot of value with them as just 4-point favorites, enough for them to be my Pick of the Week. In hindsight, I liked Minnesota on Thursday more than I like Dallas, but I didn’t want to make a Pick of the Week on Thursday before I got to review every game and, of the Sunday/Monday picks, Dallas is my favorite play.

Dallas Cowboys 31 Washington Football Team 23

Pick against the spread: Dallas -4

Confidence: Pick of the Week

Washington Football Team at Las Vegas Raiders: 2021 Week 13 NFL Pick

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Washington Football Team (5-6) at Las Vegas Raiders (6-5)

Washington has won three straight games to get their record up to 5-6, despite the fact that they have faced one of the toughest schedules in the league this season. However, there is more reason for concern with this team this week than there has been in recent weeks, as their three game winning streak has been largely the result of them finally having their offensive line healthy and playing well, which is no longer the case.

In this game in Las Vegas, Washington will be without their starting center and possibly their starting left guard, with all of their capable reserves also out with injury, which could leave them with two big holes upfront. Washington doesn’t have enough skill position talent to compensate for poor offensive line play and their defense isn’t good enough to compensate for their offense not playing well, especially with their two talented edge defenders Chase Young and Montez Sweat both out.

The Raiders have an injury concern as well, as tight end Darren Waller is expected to be out, leaving their offense without by far their best offensive playmaker, which especially hurts since they already lost top wide receiver Henry Ruggs for off-the-field reasons. However, I feel like this line takes into account the Raiders’ injuries much more than Washington’s, even though Washington is missing more key players. This line favors the Raiders by just 1-point, but as the slightly better team and the home team, the Raiders should be favored by at least a field goal. This is a small play, but I like the Raiders in a game in which they basically just have to win in order to cover the spread.

Las Vegas Raiders 20 Washington Football Team 17

Pick against the spread: Las Vegas -1

Confidence: Medium

Seattle Seahawks at Washington Football Team: 2021 Week 12 NFL Pick

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Seattle Seahawks (3-7) at Washington Football Team (4-6)

Washington started the season 2-6, but they have been better in recent weeks since their offensive line has gotten healthy, particularly the re-addition of stud right guard Brandon Scherff. They have won their past two games to push their record to 4-6, which is still not all that impressive, but it’s more impressive when you consider that they have faced arguably the toughest schedule in the league. In terms of schedule adjusted efficiency ratings, Washington ranks 9th, 28th, and 3rd on offense, defense, and special teams respectively, while ranking 13th in mixed efficiency. 

Unfortunately, the public and odds makers seem to have caught onto this, as we have lost a significant amount of line value in the past week, with the Seahawks going from being favored by 3.5 points on the early line last week to now being underdogs of one point. Seattle is missing a key starting offensive lineman with Damien Lewis out and, with that taken into account, my calculated line has Washington favored by 1.5 points, so we are still getting some line value with Washington, but it’s a miniscule amount. In fact, I am going to pick the Seahawks in this matchup just because I don’t want to go against Russell Wilson (31-14-3 ATS off of a loss and 10-1 ATS off of two straight losses) in a must win situation. This is a no confidence pick though, as a push may be the most likely result though and this should be a very close matchup.

Washington Football Team 24 Seattle Seahawks 23

Pick against the spread: Seattle +1

Confidence: None

Washington Football Team at Carolina Panthers: 2021 Week 11 NFL Pick

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Washington Football Team (3-6) at Carolina Panthers (5-5)

SInce cutting Cam Newton at the start of the 2020 off-season, the Panthers have paid Teddy Bridgewater 31 million for one season of decent play, before salary dumping him on the Broncos in a trade that netted Carolina just a sixth round pick. The Panthers then sent a second round pick to the Jets for Sam Darnold and guaranteed his 18.858 million dollar option for 2022, effectively locking him into a fully guaranteed 2-year, 23.63 million dollar deal, after already giving up a premium pick to acquire him. 

They passed on both Justin Fields and Mac Jones in the draft and entered the season with just Darnold and inexperienced PJ Walker under center. Because of that, when Darnold somewhat predictably struggled and eventually got hurt, the Panthers had to turn to a street free agent at quarterback. It just so happens that street free agent is Cam Newton, their original starting quarterback, who was available after a failed one-year stint as the starter in New England. It’s embarrassing for the Panthers that they committed all these resources to replace Newton only to end up with him anyway and Newton is definitely not the quarterback he was in his prime, but he was also their best option and it wouldn’t be hard for him to be an upgrade for the Panthers.

If he can be that upgrade, even if only by default, the Panthers all of a sudden become a solid team. They’re 5-5 despite their horrendous quarterback play, led by a defense that ranks 2nd in schedule adjusted efficiency on the season and that has been even better since getting cornerback Stephon Gilmore and linebacker Shaq Thompson, two of the best players in the league at their respective positions, back from injury. They rank 31st in schedule adjusted offensive efficiency, but I would expect that to improve going forward, not only because of the addition of Newton, but also because of the recent return of stud feature back Christian McCaffrey from injury.

Unfortunately, we’re not really getting line value with the Panthers, as this line has shifted from favoring the Panthers by two points last week on the early line to favoring them by three points this week, a more significant shift than it seems, given that about 1 in 6 games are decided by exactly a field goal. If Newton hadn’t just arrived a week and a half ago and was more familiar with the system, we would still be getting line value with the Panthers at three, but Newton isn’t even expected to play the whole game, meaning the overmatched PJ Walker will likely continue seeing some action.

That line movement happened despite the fact that Washington pulled a huge upset over the Buccaneers last week, a much more surprising upset than the Panthers’ win over the Cardinals and their backup quarterback Colt McCoy. Normally teams are a bad bet after a huge home upset victory, as teams have covered at just a 40.9% rate all-time after winning as home underdogs of 5 or more (Washington was +9.5 last week), but that’s mostly due to teams being overvalued or overconfident in that spot. Washington could be overconfident, but they don’t seem to be overvalued as 3-point underdogs. I’m still taking Carolina for pick ‘em purposes, but they’re not worth betting.

Carolina Panthers 20 Washington Football Team 16

Pick against the spread: Carolina -3

Confidence: Low

Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Washington Football Team: 2021 Week 10 NFL Pick

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Tampa Bay Buccaneers (6-2) at Washington Football Team (2-6)

The last time we saw Tom Brady and the Buccaneers, they lost in New Orleans to the Saints. However, that is a game that could have gone very differently if the Buccaneers had not lost the turnover battle by three, which is a highly inconsistent metric week-to-week that the Buccaneers are unlikely to continue struggling in every week, especially with an elite quarterback under center. That elite quarterback typically bounces back pretty well after a loss anyway, as Tom Brady is 47-23 ATS in his career after a loss. 

That record drops to 10-12 ATS as favorites of a touchdown or more, but this line is pretty reasonable and in fact my calculated line has the Buccaneers favored by 10 points, so we’re actually getting some line value with the Buccaneers as 9.5-point road favorites in Washington, against a mediocre at best team that could be 0-8 if not for close wins over mediocre teams in the Giants and Falcons and that is now missing one of their best defensive players, Montez Sweat, with injury. The Buccaneers are also in a great spot coming off of a bye. Washington is also coming off of a bye, but better teams typically get significantly more benefit from a bye week and road favorites of 3.5 or more cover at a 63.2% rate all-time in the week after a regular season bye. This isn’t a big play, but Tampa Bay should win this game with relative ease.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers 30 Washington Football Team 17

Pick against the spread: Tampa Bay -9.5

Confidence: Medium

Washington Football Team at Denver Broncos: 2021 Week 8 NFL Pick

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Washington Football Team (2-5) at Denver Broncos (3-4)

The Broncos got off to a 3-0 start, but have completely collapsed since then, losing four straight games by a combined 37 points. It’s easy to say that the Broncos stopped winning because their schedule got harder, as their three wins came against teams that are a combined 4-15, but the Broncos won those three games in convincing fashion, all by double digits, by a combined 50 points, and their schedule hasn’t been that difficult over the past four games, as the Raiders and Steelers are middling teams at best, while the Browns were starting a backup quarterback, leaving the Ravens as the only legitimately tough opponent the Broncos have faced all season.

A bigger deal than the schedule getting harder for the Broncos is simply how many players they have lost due to injury, as they have lost talented edge defender Bradley Chubb, their two starting inside linebackers Josey Jewell and Alexander Johnson, who were both playing above average, as well as promising young wide receivers Jerry Jeudy and KJ Hamler, though the former could return this week from a 6-game absence. Even bigger than any of those absences would be the loss of Von Miller, who is highly questionable for this game after not practicing all week. 

The oddsmakers and/or the public don’t seem to have caught up with how much less talent the Broncos have than they did earlier this season when they were beating bad teams convincingly, favoring the Broncos by 3.5 points in this home game against Washington. Washington isn’t as bad as the teams the Broncos have beaten and those wins were back when the Broncos were not missing so many key players, so this could easily be a close game or an upset. My calculated line has the Broncos favored by 2, so we’re getting some line value at +3.5, although I would need Miller to be ruled out for Washington to be worth betting.

Update: Von Miller sounds unlikely to play, but this line still moved up to 4. Jerry Jeudy will play for the Broncos, but this line is still too high. If Miller doesn’t play, Washington is the better of these two teams and homefield advantage isn’t what it used to be.

Denver Broncos 24 Washington Football Team 23

Pick against the spread: Washington +4

Confidence: Medium

Washington Football Team at Green Bay Packers: 2021 Week 7 NFL Pick

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Washington Football Team (2-4) at Green Bay Packers (5-1)

The Packers are 5-1, but they are not the same team as they were a year ago when they went 13-3, as they are missing three of their best players, left tackle David Bahktari, edge defender Za’Darius Smith, and cornerback Jaire Alexander. On top of that, Aaron Rodgers doesn’t seem to be playing at quite the same level as a year ago, even if he is still obviously one of the top quarterbacks in the league. The Packers’ only win by more than 10 points came against a Lions team that is winless and the Lions actually led at halftime before the Packers came back and pulled away in the second half. In total, the Packers’ +8 point differential is just 13th in the league and is more in line with a 3-3 team than one that is 5-1 at this point. 

The Packers are also in a bad spot here as they have to turn around and play a much tougher game against the undefeated Cardinals next week on Thursday Night Football. Favorites cover at just a 41.5% rate all-time before Thursday Night Football, while favorites of 7+ cover at just a 42.7% rate all-time before facing a team with a winning percentage that is over 50% higher than their current opponent’s winning percentage, both of which should work against the Packers this week.

The Packers are very tough to play at home, where Aaron Rodgers has a well above average 10 point jump in QB rating in his career and is 46-22 ATS when playing in front of fans in games he starts and finishes. However, that’s more of a reason not to bet on Washington than it is a reason to pick the Packers, as even with extra homefield advantage it’s hard to get this line up to the 8 points the Packers are favored by, even before you take into account that the Packers are likely to be flat in a tough spot this week. Washington isn’t quite bettable, but only because I don’t want to bet money against Rodgers at home without a great reason to and Washington is still the right side for pick ‘em purposes.

Green Bay Packers 24 Washington Football Team 17

Pick against the spread: Washington +8

Confidence: Low

Kansas City Chiefs at Washington Football Team: 2021 Week 6 NFL Pick

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Kansas City Chiefs (2-3) at Washington Football Team (2-3)

The Chiefs are 2-3 right now, but there isn’t much real reason for concern. Their issues have almost entirely been concentrated on the defensive side of the ball, as they lead the league in first down rate, but also in yards per play allowed, and the offensive side of the ball is much more predictive week-to-week. The Chiefs have also been better on offense relative to how bad they’ve been on defense, as there is a bigger gap in first down rate between the Chiefs and the 4th ranked Chargers than there is between the Chargers and the 25th ranked Raiders.

The Chiefs have also faced a relatively tough schedule, with the Browns, Chargers, Ravens, and Bills all likely being playoff qualifiers and their only relatively easy game coming against the Eagles, who aren’t a bad team either. Despite that schedule, the Chiefs could easily be 4-1 if not for the turnover margin. Turnover margin is one of the least predictive metrics in the league and the Chiefs have the second worst turnover margin in the league at -7, which has cost them at least a couple games.

That would be unlikely to continue for any team, but that’s especially the case for the Chiefs, as having an elite quarterback is one of the few ways to consistently fare well in the turnover margin. Overall, the Chiefs were +23 in turnover margin in Mahomes’ first 3 seasons in the league prior to this season. Even this season, most of Mahomes’ interceptions have been off of drops or tipped balls, which are unlikely to continue recurring at this rate. 

Washington, meanwhile, could be 0-5 right now, if not for close wins over below average teams in the Giants and Falcons, with their three losses coming by a combined 37 points. They are starting a backup quarterback on offense, while their defense hasn’t been nearly as good as a year ago, as they aren’t getting the same level of play out of their back seven. Their offense could be in even more trouble than usual this week, as their injuries are piling up. 

Washington already lost top offensive lineman Brandon Scherff a couple weeks ago, but they will also be without promising rookie right tackle Samuel Cosmi, while their receiving corps will be without #2 receiver Curtis Samuel, tight end Logan Thomas, and could be without #1 receiver Terry McLaurin, who could be limited even if he plays, after injuring his hamstring in practice on Friday. That will make life even tougher for backup quarterback Taylor Heinicke.

The public doesn’t seem to be buying the Chiefs’ record, betting the Chiefs as touchdown favorites, even though this line has shifted up from Kansas City -5.5 on the early line last season, so we’re not getting great line value with the Chiefs. However, they should be able to handle this game pretty easily, as they still have a dominant offense and this is their easiest game of the season thus far. This isn’t a big play, but the Chiefs are still undervalued, as my calculated line has them as 9.5 point favorites, so they’re worth betting.

Update: Some -6.5s have popped up. This is a bigger play at this number. As long as the Chiefs can avoid fluky turnovers, there still isn’t a team in the league I trust more to score a touchdown on any given drive, so it’ll be tough for this underwhelming Washington team to keep it within one score.

Kansas City Chiefs 34 Washington Football Team 24

Pick against the spread: Kansas City -6.5

Confidence: High

Washington Football Team at Atlanta Falcons: 2021 Week 4 NFL Pick

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Washington Football Team (1-2) at Atlanta Falcons (1-2)

Washington is 1-2 with their only win coming by just 1 point over the Giants at home, but they are still a little overrated, favored by 2 points on the road in Atlanta, against a Falcons team that I have just a half point worse than Washington in my roster rankings. Both teams are mediocre, but the public hasn’t caught on to the fact that Washington’s defense isn’t as good as a year ago. They still have their dominant defensive line, but their back seven isn’t nearly as good as a year ago. Overall, this defense isn’t good enough to carry an offense that is starting a backup quarterback and that has a noticeably worse offensive line than a year ago. There isn’t quite enough here for the Falcons to be worth betting against the spread, but the money line at +110 is a good value because the Falcons should be no worse than 50/50 to win this game at home.

Atlanta Falcons 24 Washington Football Team 23 Upset Pick +110

Pick against the spread: Atlanta +2

Confidence: Low