Commanders

Washington Football Team at Pittsburgh Steelers: 2020 Week 13 NFL Pick

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Washington Football Team (4-7) at Pittsburgh Steelers (11-0)

Washington is just 4-7, but they’re the most competitive of the four teams in the NFC East, as their -2 point differential is significantly better than their record and significantly better than any other team in the division. If not for an 0-3 record in games decided by a field goal or less, Washington could easily be 5-6 or 6-5 right now, which isn’t amazing or anything, but it’s respectable. That’s despite the fact that they have struggled in metrics that are inconsistent on a week-to-week basis and that are likely to improve going forward, with a -5 turnover margin (tied for 7th worst in the NFL) and a -14.77% net field goal conversion rate. In terms of schedule adjusted first down rate differential, Washington actually ranks 7th at +2.16%.

Washington is led by their defense, with a defense that ranks 4th in first down rate allowed over expected at -3.98% and an offense ranks just 25th in first down rate over expected at -1.82%, which is concerning because defensive play tends to be much more inconsistent on a week-to-week basis. It’s far from a guarantee that Washington will continue being that good defensively going forward, especially with key players like Matt Ioannidis and Landon Collins out for the year, but any regression by their defense could be offset by their offense, which has improved significantly since turning to Alex Smith under center. They’re also as healthy as they’ve been all season around the quarterback on offense, particularly on the offensive line. My roster rankings don’t have them quite as high as they rank in first down rate differential, but they still rank 17th, suggesting this is legitimately a middling team, despite their record and public perception.

Washington gets a big step up in competition this week in Pittsburgh, as the Steelers have yet to lose a game all season at 11-0, but the Steelers have played a lot of close games, with just two of their 11 wins coming by more than 10 points (both coming against two of the worst teams in the league in the Bengals and Jaguars) and 6 of their 11 wins coming by 7 points or fewer, which is notable, considering this line favors Pittsburgh by 7. Pittsburgh also hasn’t faced a tough schedule, facing the 2nd easiest schedule in the league in terms of opponents expected first down rate differential. If teams like the Jeff Driskel led Broncos, the Garrett Gilbert led Cowboys, the Texans, and the COVID Ravens can keep it within a touchdown with the Steelers, a team like Washington, who is much better than those four, should be able to do so as well.

The Steelers are also a defensive led team, with their defense leading the league in first down rate allowed over expected at -4.65%, but their offense ranking just 27th in first down rate over expected at -2.06%, actually behind Washington, even though Washington was starting Dwayne Haskins and Kyle Allen at the beginning of the season before Smith came in. The Steelers’ offensive struggles bring them down to 5th in schedule adjusted first down rate differential at +2.60%, which isn’t bad, but it’s not as good as their undefeated 11-0 record, which has been built in part by close wins over lesser opponents. Given that offensive performance is more predictive and the Steelers aren’t a significantly better offensive team, it’s hard to justify Pittsburgh being 7-point favorites in this one, especially since they’ll likely be without starting center Maurkice Pouncey and starting running back James Conner for the second straight week and won’t have the benefit of any fans in their home stadium.

This line has shifted significantly from favoring Pittsburgh by 11 on the early line last week, but I think that was just a bad line. The line movement seems to have been almost entirely driven by significant sharp action on the visitor and I don’t think it went far enough. Normally I like to go against significant week-to-week line movements like that, but, even at 7, we’re getting line value with Washington, as my calculated line is Pittsburgh -3.5, giving the Steelers a 3-point edge and about a half point for nominal homefield advantage. Washington is worth a big bet if you can get the full touchdown.

Pittsburgh Steelers 17 Washington Football Team 13

Pick against the spread: Washington +7

Confidence: High

Washington Football Team at Dallas Cowboys: 2020 Week 12 NFL Pick

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Washington Football Team (3-7) at Dallas Cowboys (3-7)

Both of these teams are just 3-7, but Washington has been the significantly better team this season. While the Cowboys rank 30th in point differential at -83, Washington ranks a relatively respectable 22nd at -27. On top of that, Washington has struggled in metrics that are inconsistent on a week-to-week basis and could improve going forward, like turnover margin (4th worst in the NFL at -6) and net field goal percentage (-15.71%). In terms of schedule adjusted first down rate, which minimizes the value of outlier snaps, Washington actually ranks 9th at +1.55%.

Washington is led by its defense, ranking 5th in first down rate allowed over expected but just 27th in first down rate over expected, which is the significantly less consistent and predictive side of the ball, so Washington could easily regress on that side of the ball going forward, especially since they have outplayed their defensive talent level and have lost key players like Landon Collins and Matt Ioannidis to injury, but that should be offset somewhat by the fact that their offense has looked much better since Alex Smith took over at quarterback.

Dallas is better than their point differential, as they have also struggled with turnovers (2nd in the NFL at -12), which is something that is very inconsistent week-to-week, and they have played better since getting healthier, with stud right guard Zack Martin (1 game missed), quarterback Andy Dalton (2 games), starting linebackers Leighton Vander Esch (4 games) and Sean Lee (7 games), top cornerback Chidobe Awuzie (7 games), and other minor players returning from injury in recent weeks, but, even with that factored in, they are still behind Washington in my roster rankings and in schedule adjusted first down rate differential. 

In fact, I have Washington 2.5 points better than Dallas overall, which, even with Dallas having some homefield advantage, still gives us a calculated line of Washington -1. Getting the full field goal with Washington at +3 is a great value in a game they could win straight up. Washington is worth betting both against the spread and on the money line. I am also locking in TB +3.5 and TEN +3.5 for later this weekend before those lines move. I will have full write ups for those games with all of this weekend’s picks.

Washington Football Team 20 Dallas Cowboys 19 Upset Pick +130

Pick against the spread: Washington +3

Confidence: Medium

Cincinnati Bengals at Washington Football Team: 2020 Week 11 NFL Pick

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Cincinnati Bengals (2-6-1) at Washington Football Team (2-7)

Neither of these teams have impressive records, but Washington has been clearly the better of these two teams this season. Washington has the slightly better point differential at -38 vs. -46, but the difference is more pronounced than that. Washington has faced a much tougher schedule and has struggled more in metrics that are inconsistent on a week-to-week basis and could improve going forward, like turnover margin (-3 vs. -7, in large part due to Washington’s league worst 32.14% fumble recovery rate) and net field goal percentage (+9.53% vs -23.85%). 

In terms of first down rate differential, which minimizes the impact of outlier plays that are inconsistent on a week-to-week basis, Washington has a massive edge at +1.64% vs. -3.65%. The Bengals have played a lot of close games, with four of their six losses coming by one score or less, but they are worse than their box scores suggest, as their close losses to the Colts and the Browns came in games in which the Bengals lost the first down rate battle by 8.20% and 5.56% respectively. The Bengals lost to the Colts despite winning the turnover battle and they needed to go 5 for 5 on 4th down and get a last second garbage time touchdown to cut it to a single score against the Browns. 

Offense is the more consistent side of the ball and, as a result, it’s the more important side of the ball for projections and the Bengals have the edge on that side of the ball, with Washington being led by their defense, but it’s a slight edge for Cincinnati, as they rank 23rd in first down rate over expected at -1.17%, while Washington ranks -2.34% at 27th, and that slight edge may be made up for by the fact that, with Alex Smith resembling his old form at quarterback, Washington has their most competent quarterback under center right now, for his 3rd start of the season. 

Washington also has a massive edge on defense, ranking 4th in first down rate allowed over expected at -3.98%, while the Bengals rank 28th at +2.49%, which can’t be ignored, even if defense tends to be inconsistent week-to-week and even if Washington has some injuries on that side of the ball. Washington holds the slight edge in my roster rankings as well and, even without any fans in the stadium, they should be favored by at least a field goal in this home game against the Bengals, if not more. Given that, we’re getting decent line value with Washington as mere 1-point favorites. This isn’t a big play, but Washington is worth a bet this week.

Washington Football Team 17 Cincinnati Bengals 13

Pick against the spread: Washington -1

Confidence: Medium

Washington Football Team at Detroit Lions: 2020 Week 10 NFL Pick

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Washington Football Team (2-6) at Detroit Lions (3-5)

The Lions have lost back-to-back games by multiple touchdowns, pushing them down to 27th in point differential at -43, but they still continue to be overrated, favored by 4.5 points at home over the Washington Football Team. The Lions have been even worse than their point differential suggests, as they’ve faced a below average schedule and barely won two of their games.

They beat the Falcons by 1 in a game in which the Falcons would have won if they had just taken a knee late and kicked a field goal. They beat the Cardinals by 3 in a game in which the Lions won the turnover battle by 3 but lost the first down rate battle by 8.96%. Their other win and only convincing victory came against a Jaguars team that is one of the worst in the league. They nearly beat the Bears earlier this year, but they still lost the first down rate battle in that game to a mediocre Bears team. Overall, the Lions rank just 28th in schedule adjusted first down rate differential at -2.62%.

Washington, meanwhile, is just 2-6, but they actually rank 9th in schedule adjusted first down rate differential. Both of their wins have come by double digits, while two of their losses came by a combined 4 points against the Giants in games in which Washington won the first down rate battle by 4.47% combined, but lost the turnover battle by 6, missed a makeable field goal, and allowed a return touchdown, three things that are highly unpredictable on a week-to-week basis. Even having played 4 games against the NFC East, Washington has still played an above average schedule and is legitimately a couple plays away from being 4-4 against that schedule.

That being said, there is certainly a big reason to believe Washington won’t be the 9th best team in schedule adjusted first down rate going forward, which is that they’ve been carried by a defense that ranks first in first down rate allowed over expected at -4.97%, but rank just 29th offensively in first down rate over expected at -3.47%. In addition to their defense outperforming it’s talent level, especially with players like Landon Collins and Matt Ioannidis out with injury, defensive play also tends to be much more inconsistent than offensive play, so it’s very tough for any team to continue playing at the level Washington has played at defensively.

The Lions may rank significantly behind Washington defensively, ranking 31st in first down rate allowed over expected, but their offense ranks 13th in first down rate over expected, so if both defenses regress to average somewhat, the Lions would seem to be in decent shape. However, I was encouraged by how Alex Smith played in relief of an injured Kyle Allen last week and, while it’s hard to say how good Smith can be after his horrific injury two years ago, he was a solid starting quarterback before the injury and if he can even resemble his old form he should be able to be an upgrade under center for this team compared to the likes of Kyle Allen and Dwayne Haskins, which would be a boost to this offense and give them more life going forward. 

The Lions, meanwhile, are missing arguably their best player on either side of the ball, without top wide receiver Kenny Galloday and top edge defender Trey Flowers. They may be able to sneak out this victory at home over Washington, but there’s no good reason why they should be laying 4.5 points, especially since they won’t have the benefit of any fans in the stands at this home game. I like the WFT a good amount this week, to at least keep this close, but possibly pull the upset as well.

Detroit Lions 20 Washington Football Team 19

Pick against the spread: Washington +4.5

Confidence: High

New York Giants at Washington Football Team: 2020 Week 9 NFL Pick

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New York Giants (1-7) at Washington Football Team (2-5)

With Washington still somehow unable to figure out how to get a real name, it seems that the Washington Football Team moniker is here to stay, with reports recently that they are keeping the name through 2021, so I will have to call them by their non-name officially going forward, but it’s still a stupid name and they should pick any other name as soon as possible. With that out of the way, when analyzing this game, something stood out in my numbers as very surprising, which was that the Giants rank 14th in the NFL in first down rate over expected at +0.62%. 

Whenever something is unusual like that, I look to see what is going on and in this case, what is happening is simple. The Giants rank just 27th in first down rate at 31.92%, but they have also faced a brutal schedule of defenses, including the Buccaneers (1st in first down rate allowed over expected), the Steelers (3rd), the Rams (5th), the Bears (9th), the 49ers (10th) and the nonames (2nd), who they previously played back in week 6. 

Is it possible the Giants are a secretly capable offense that has been made to look bad by its strength of schedule? It might not be the case that they’re the 14th best offense in the league, but it’s definitely possible they’re closer to middling than we expect, especially with wide receiver Sterling Shepard back from injury and quarterback Daniel Jones playing better in recent weeks. 

The Giants strength of schedule doesn’t get much easier this week in this rematch in Washington, but defensive performance is much more inconsistent on a week-to-week basis than offensive performance and the injuries are also starting to pile up for Washington, with defensive end Matt Ioannidis and safety Landon Collins now both done for the year, so it wouldn’t be a surprise to see them regress defensively going forward, in which case they would be in a lot of trouble, because their offense ranks just 31st in first down rate over expected. 

The Giants might not be the 14th best offense in the league, but they have a significant advantage on the side of the ball that matters more for projection purposes. Unfortunately, it seems like the public and the sharp bettors have kind of picked up on this, shifting the Giants from 3.5 point underdogs on the early line last week to 2.5 this week, in the wake of the Giants’ near victory over the Buccaneers last week. If we can get a good +3, I might consider a bet on the Giants, but this is a low confidence pick at 2.5.

Update: +3s have popped up Sunday morning. The Giants will be without wide receiver Golden Tate for disciplinary reasons, but he hasn’t done much this season and is far less important to this team with Shepard back. +3 is worth a bet.

New York Giants 17 Washington Football Team 16 Upset Pick +135

Pick against the spread: NY Giants +3

Confidence: Medium

Dallas Cowboys at Washington Mascots: 2020 Week 7 NFL Pick

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Dallas Cowboys (2-4) at Washington Mascots (1-5)

This is a tough one and I’ve been going back and forth on it. On one hand, the Cowboys have all the usual factors for a team that should be better going forward. They have a -12 turnover margin through 6 games and turnover margins are highly unpredictable on a week-to-week basis. At the very least, they should recover more than 28.57% of their fumbles going forward, but their fumble rate is likely to regress as well. 

In addition, they’ve played a tougher than average schedule, which gets significantly easier going forward. They’ve been competitive in most of their losses, within three of four games being one score games in the 4th quarter. With strength of schedule taken into account, the Cowboys rank 11th in first down rate differential at +1.98%. The Cowboys injury situation on offense can’t be ignored, with guard Zack Martin joining quarterback Dak Prescott, tight end Blake Jarwin, and offensive tackles Tyron Smith and La’El Collins on the sidelines. However, the Cowboys are getting healthier on defense with linebacker Leighton Vander Esch returning last week and cornerback Chidobe Awuzie, linebacker Sean Lee, and defensive end Randy Gregory all likely to return this week, and backup quarterback Andy Dalton should theoretically be a capable if underwhelming starter.

The Cowboys were much better in first down rate (4th in the NFL at +4.28%) than their 8-8 record last season, in part due to their tendency to blowout bad teams (7 wins by 18 points or more). The Cowboys have yet to do that this season, but they’ve won their only two games against lower level opponents (Falcons and Giants), despite losing the turnover battle in both games. In those two games, they won the first down rate battle by 10.80% and 12.95% respectively, even though Dalton played a big chunk of the game against the Giants and led the comeback. If they can do that again in this game against a bottom-5 team, they should be able to win fairly easily.

On the other hand, the Cowboys are nowhere near the same team they were last season and the dropoff from Dak Prescott to Andy Dalton looked bigger than expected in Dalton’s debut last week. If that’s the case, the Cowboys, who are poorly coached as well, will likely continue struggling going forward, despite their past success in first down rate differential. I’m still taking the Cowboys for pick ‘em purposes in this game, with the line moving from Dallas -3 on the early line last week to Dallas -1 this week, but I don’t have confidence in them.

Update: It looks like both Lee and Awuzie will miss another week for the Cowboys. I didn’t have any confidence in the Cowboys anyway, so I’m switching this to Washington.

Washington Mascots 24 Dallas Cowboys 23

Pick against the spread: Washington PK

Confidence: None

Washington Mascots at New York Giants: 2020 Week 6 NFL Pick

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Washington Mascots (1-4) at New York Giants (0-5)

These two teams have just one win between them but somehow this is a meaningful divisional game, in a division that is led by a 2-3 Cowboys team that just lost its starting quarterback for the season. Both of these teams are among the worst in the league, but this line suggests the Giants are the better team, favoring them by a full field goal at home, despite the fact that they won’t have any fans in attendance. I have been giving one point of home field advantage to teams without fans, so this line suggests the Giants are a couple points better than their nameless opponents. 

I have that the other way around though. Not only does Washington rank higher in first down rate differential (-3.33% vs -5.53%), but they’re also in a better injury situation. While the Giants are still without their top offensive playmaker Saquon Barkley and now are without top edge defender Lorenzo Carter, the Mascots will get their top offensive lineman Brandon Scherff back from a 3-game absence, which will be a big boost to this offense. My calculated line is about even, with the Mascots actually slightly better than 50/50 to pull the straight up upset, so we’re getting great value with them at +3. About a quarter of games are decided by three points or less, so even if Washington can’t pull off the upset, they still have a good chance to cover or at least push. 

Washington is also in a much better spot, as the Giants have to turn around and play another divisional game in four days on Thursday Night Football, when they head to Philadelphia for their week 7 matchup. Teams tend to be at a disadvantage before a short week, especially teams that are favored, as favorites cover at just a 44.3% rate before a short week historically. That rate drops further to 42.1% before divisional games and divisional home favorites in general have a horrible track record before being divisional road underdogs, covering just 34.9% of the time historically. 

Washington’s mess of a quarterback situation will probably cause me to go elsewhere with my Pick of the Week, but I like Washington a lot this week regardless and this is one of several picks I am considering for my top play this week, which will be posted tomorrow. This line is dropping to 2.5 in some places because of heavy sharp action. Obviously getting the full field goal is definitely preferable, but if you can’t, I would still make a smaller bet at +2.5.

Washington Mascots 17 New York Giants 15 Upset Pick +130

Pick against the spread: Washington +3

Confidence: High

Los Angeles Rams at Washington Mascots: 2020 Week 5 NFL Pick

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Los Angeles Rams (3-1) at Washington Mascots (1-3)

The mascot-less team from Washington got off to a good start to their season with a win over the Eagles, but the Eagles were missing arguably their more valuable player in Lane Johnson in that game and have shown themselves to be a subpar team even with Johnson in the lineup over the past few weeks, while Washington has also struggled since that week 1 game, losing all three games by at least two touchdowns. To try to right the ship, the Mascots will make a surprising change at quarterback this week, benching second year quarterback Dwayne Haskins for backup Kyle Allen.

Haskins being benched isn’t all that surprising because he hasn’t played well in his limited career action and the front office and coaching staff that drafted him are no longer around, but I would have figured if he was going to get benched, it would be later in the season, rather than after only the 11th start of the 2019 first round pick’s career, and that it would have been for Alex Smith, a proven veteran starter working his way back from a devastating leg injury. Instead, head coach Ron Rivera is turning to his former starting quarterback in Carolina, Kyle Allen.

It’s hard to understand the logic here. Haskins hasn’t been good, but he still has a lot of upside and Allen is a former undrafted free agent who was truly horrendous down the stretch for the Panthers last season, tossing 16 interceptions in his final 9 starts after a somewhat impressive beginning to his career as a starter. Allen’s true talent level may be somewhere between his hot start and his horrendous finish, but even if it is, he’ll be lucky to max out as a long-term backup in the NFL. Allen also had 12 dropped interceptions last season, giving him the most expected interceptions in the league of any quarterback other than Jameis Winston, and he overall ranked 38th out of 39 eligible quarterbacks on Pro Football Focus. 

Allen is not a short-term upgrade on Haskins nor does he do anything to clarify Washington’s long-term quarterback situation, as Haskins needs as much experience as possible to realize his potential, after just 14 collegiate starts. I didn’t have a strong lean either way on this game before Allen was announced as the starter, but I’m taking the Rams as a pure fade of Allen, who covered just twice in his final 9 games in Carolina, with more offensive talent around him than he has in Washington. There isn’t enough here for the Rams to be worth betting as 7.5-point favorites, but they should be the right side.

Los Angeles Rams 20 Washington Mascots 10

Pick against the spread: LA Rams -7.5

Confidence: Low

Baltimore Ravens at Washington Mascots: 2020 Week 4 NFL Pick

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Baltimore Ravens (2-1) at Washington Mascots (1-2)

The Ravens lost at home to the Chiefs last week 34-20 in a game that was not nearly as close as the final score suggested. The Ravens got 11 points of benefit from special teams, returning a kick, while the Chiefs missed an extra point and a makeable field goal, and the Ravens’ offense didn’t actually get into the end zone themselves until the fourth quarter. Overall, the Ravens lost the first down rate battle by 14.50%, not only their worst single game regular season performance since Lamar Jackson took over as the starter in the middle of the 2018 season, but also their third loss to the Chiefs over that stretch, accounting for all but one of their regular season losses.

The Ravens are also 0-2 in the playoffs, but their 2018 loss came before Lamar Jackson developed as a passer, and their 2019 loss to the Titans was largely decided by the Ravens going 0 for 4 on 4th down and having a -3 turnover margin, two very inconsistent metrics and very uncharacteristic for the Ravens over the past couple years. The Ravens did lose the first down rate battle in that game, but only by 3.24% and it came against a red hot Titans team. Prior to last week, that playoff game was the Ravens’ only first down rate battle loss since week 9 of 2019, a now 13-game stretch in which they have 9 wins by at least 16 points and 7 wins by at least 10% in first down rate differential. Even including last week’s embarrassing loss, albeit to one of the top teams in the league, the Ravens are still on a very impressive stretch right now.

I like their chances of picking up another blowout victory this week, playing a team that is one of the worst in the league when healthy and that is now missing arguably it’s top player on both sides of the ball, guard Brandon Scherff on offense and edge defender Chase Young on defense. The Ravens are also in a great spot, with only another easy game against the Bengals on deck, while Washington has another tough game on deck against the Rams. 

Favorites of 7+ are 102-59 ATS since 2012 before being favorites of 7+ again, while underdogs of 7+ are 55-90 ATS since 2012 before being underdogs of 7+ again. Combining the two, favorites of 7+ are 27-5 ATS since 2012 before being favorites of 7+ again when their opponent will be underdogs of 7+ again the following week. Good teams tend to take care of business against bad teams without upcoming distractions on their schedule, while bad teams tend to struggle to keep it close against good teams with another tough game on deck. All of those conditions should be true this week.

This game is in Washington, but with no fans in attendance and the Ravens only coming from about an hour away in Baltimore, it’s hard to see any real homefield advantage in this game, so, while this line may seem high at 14, it’s arguably a little low. Given that, and the great spot the Ravens are in, I like the Ravens’ chances a lot of making this a blowout. My only concerns are that the Ravens hold out injured players like left tackle Ronnie Stanley, Jimmy Smith, and Derek Wolfe against an easy opponent and/or they take their foot off the gas in the second half and allow a backdoor cover, although that’s probably less likely with the Ravens needing to get right after last week. This is a medium confidence play for now, but if all the aforementioned players are active, I may increase this bet tomorrow morning.

Baltimore Ravens 30 Washington Mascots 10

Pick against the spread: Baltimore -14

Confidence: Medium

Washington Mascots at Cleveland Browns: 2020 Week 3 NFL Pick

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Washington Mascots (1-1) at Cleveland Browns (1-1)

The Browns got blown out in week 1 in Baltimore, losing 38-7 in a game in which they lost the first down rate differential by 17.39%, but the Ravens are on a dominant regular season run dating back to last season, and the Browns bounced back in week 2. They only beat the Bengals by 5, but the Browns actually won the first down rate by 10.78%, with the Bengals only able to keep it close because they went 5 for 5 on 4th down and got a late meaningless touchdown. 

The Browns have some injuries, missing defensive end Olivier Vernon and probably top cornerback Denzel Ward, but they’re hardly the only banged up team right now and they still rank 15th in my roster rankings. Their opponents this week, in addition not having a team name, are missing one of their few top level players, Brandon Scherff, without whom they have one of the worst offensive lines in the league. They pulled off the upset week 1 against a banged up Eagles team that looked bad again in week 2 even when they were healthier, but they’re still one of the least talented teams in the league, about 8 points behind the Browns in my roster rankings. That suggests a line favoring the Browns by about 10, so we’re getting good line value with this number at 7. This isn’t a big play, but the Browns are worth a bet this week.

Update: Denzel Ward is a surprise active for the Browns, and Adrian Clayborn, a valuable situational rusher who was questionable, will play as well. Strangely, this line has stayed put at a touchdown. I like the Browns enough for this to be a bigger play. They should win this one fairly easily.

Cleveland Browns 24 Washington Mascots 12

Pick against the spread: Cleveland -7

Confidence: High