Quarterback

The Dolphins fell from a 11-6 record in 2023 to a 8-9 record in 2024. The biggest reason for this by far was the decline of their offense, which went from ranking 2nd in yards per play and 5th in first down rate in 2023 to just 23rd in yards per play and 16th in first down rate in 2024. Part of the problem was quarterback Tua Tagovailoa missed six games due to injury and, in his absence, a trio of quarterbacks, Tyler Huntley, Skylar Thompson, and Tim Boyle, combined to complete just 63.5% of their passes for an average of 6.09 YPA, 3 touchdowns, and 3 interceptions.

However, the Dolphins offense was not the same as 2023 even in games Tua Tagovailoa started. The biggest reason for that is the Dolphins completely changed their offensive philosophy. In 2022 and 2023, when Tagovailoa combined to complete 67.4% of his passes for an average of 8.51 YPA, 54 touchdowns, and 22 interceptions in 30 starts, Tagovailoa had an average depth of target of 10.1 and 8.2 respectively. In 2024, that dropped to 6.1, while his time to throw dropped to the lowest in the league at 2.25. 

In 2022, the Dolphins had 66.5% of their targets go to wide receivers, second in the NFL, which continued into 2023, when 67.8% of targets went to wide receivers, third in the NFL, but in 2024, that dropped to 50.4%, just 27th in the NFL, while 23.1% of targets went to running backs, 3rd in the NFL, and 26.6% went to tight ends, 7th in the NFL. The result was Tagovailoa set a new career high in completion percentage at 72.9%, but his yards per attempt fell to 7.19, a significant drop off from 2022-2023.

Dolphins didn’t change their offensive play caller and had mostly the same personnel in their receiving corps in 2024 as they did in 2022 and 2023, so a huge shift like that was surprising and there are a lot of factors that explain it. Part of it was simply that the Dolphins wanted to prevent Tagovailoa from taking too many hits, as he has missed time with injury in four of five seasons in the league, with 20 games missed total and a concerning history of concussions. 

Keeping Tagovailoa from taking hits is a goal that was made harder by a decline in the Dolphins offensive line from 2023 to 2024, as they went from ranking 16th in PFF pass block grade and 18th in PFF run block grade in 2023 to 21st in PFF pass block grade and 28th in PFF run block grade in 2024, which I will get into more later. The decline of their offensive line is another reason why the Dolphins felt the need to get the ball out of Tagovailoa’s hands quicker and into the hands of running backs and tight ends, rather than letting plays develop downfield for wide receivers. Additionally, this offense saw a significant decline by #1 wide receiver and deep threat Tyreek Hill in 2024, which I will also get more into later. Hill’s decline further contributed to the Dolphins’ offensive philosophy shift.

None of those factors are likely to change in 2024. In fact, the Dolphins suffered more losses on the offensive line this off-season, Hill is now another year older, going into his age 31 season, and another injury plagued season by Tagovailoa is likely to further necessitate getting the ball out of his hands quicker, so this new offense is here to stay, despite the underwhelming results from a year ago. The Dolphins did at least find a new backup quarterback for Tagovailoa, signing Zach Wilson in free agency.

Wilson has potential, as a former #2 overall pick who is still only going into his age 26 season, but it remains to be seen if he’ll be much of an upgrade over what the Dolphins had at quarterback behind Tagovailoa last season. In 33 career starts, Wilson has completed just 57.0% of his passes for an average of 6.34 YPA, 23 touchdowns, and 25 interceptions, good for a QB rating of just 73.2. The Dolphins also used a 7th round pick on a developmental quarterback in Quinn Ewers, but he figures to spend his whole rookie season as the third string quarterback, unless something goes horribly wrong ahead of him on the depth chart. With Tagovailoa’s injury history and a shaky backup situation, there are definitely concerns in this quarterback room, even if Tagovailoa does have a high upside when everything is right.

Grade: B+

Offensive Line

As I mentioned, the Dolphins’ offensive line got worse from 2023 to 2024 and looks likely to get even worse from 2024 to 2025. Last off-season, the Dolphins lost right guard Robert Hunt and center Connor Williams to free agency. This off-season, the Dolphins lost left tackle Terron Armstead to retirement, ahead of what would have been his age 34 season in 2025. Armstead still had a 89.4 PFF grade in 15 starts last season (821 snaps), despite his age and a concerning injury history, so his loss will be massive for this offensive line.

In his place, the Dolphins will likely turn to Patrick Paul, a 2024 2nd round pick who was drafted to be Armstead’s successor, but who struggled mightily with a 44.9 PFF grade across 338 snaps (three starts) as a rookie. He actually spent his rookie season as the Dolphins’ 4th tackle, with veteran Kendall Lamm being the swing tackle, posting a 72.7 PFF grade in seven starts. Lamm is also no longer with the team, which further hurts their offensive line. Paul still has upside and could take a big step forward in his second season in the league in 2025, but that’s not a guarantee and, even if he does, he will still be a massive downgrade from Armstead.

Paul will start opposite Austin Jackson. A first round pick in 2020, Jackson struggled to start his career, finishing below 60 on PFF in each of his first three seasons, but he has been better over the past two seasons, though his 60.0 PFF grade in 2024 was a noticeable dropoff from his 68.4 PFF grade in 2023. He also has missed time due to injury in four of five seasons in the league, with a total of 28 games missed in five seasons, including nine games missed last season, and, overall, he has not lived up to his draft slot. 

Jackson is still only going into his age 26 season, so he could have further untapped upside, but most likely he will remain a decent, unspectacular starter in 2025. He will probably stay at right tackle, but it’s possible the Dolphins opt to move him to the left side and start Paul at right tackle. Meanwhile, Larry Borom will likely be the swing tackle. He’s made 27 starts in four seasons in the league and finished above 60 on PFF in each of his first two seasons in the league, but he has fallen to PFF grades of 48.0 and 53.8 over the past two seasons and, even for a swing tackle, he’s an underwhelming option.

Center Aaron Brewer was the Dolphins’ second best offensive lineman last season, with a 74.1 PFF grade across 1,139 snaps (17 starts). That was a career best year for the 2020 undrafted free agent, but it didn’t come out of nowhere, as he also had a 71.6 PFF grade in 17 starts in 2023, though he did have a 59.9 PFF grade in 17 starts in his first full season as a starter in 2022. Even being a former undrafted free agent, with the underwhelming 2022 season on his resume, he still figures to be an above average starter in 2025, off of back-to-back seasons, still only going into his age 28 season.

If there is one reason for optimism on this offensive line, it’s the addition of veteran guard James Daniels on a 3-year, 24 million dollar deal. Daniels has finished above 60 on PFF in all seven seasons in the league and was on his way to a career best year in 2024, with a 92.9 PFF grade through 209 snaps, but he tore his achilles early in week 4 and missed the rest of the season. Now coming off of a significant injury, it seems highly unlikely he will go back to the level of play he had to start last season, especially since it was such a small sample size and since his previous career best PFF grade was 71.8 in 2021. Daniels is still only in his age 28 season, so he could be a solid starter if he’s healthy, but that’s not a guarantee.

However, it wouldn’t be hard for Daniels to be an upgrade over Robert Jones, a free agent departure who had a 56.1 PFF grade across 17 starts at guard last season. The Dolphins also added Jonah Savaiinaea in the second round of the draft and he could start at the other guard spot, even as a rookie. He might struggle as a rookie, but it also wouldn’t be hard for him to be an upgrade over Liam Eichenberg, who had a 53.1 PFF grade in 14 starts last season. 

Eichenberg could still be in the mix to keep his starting job if Savaiinaea isn’t ready to start week 1 and Eichenberg is also a former second round pick, but he’s finished below 60 on PFF in all four seasons in the league (52 starts) and, already going into his age 27 season, he is running out of time to make good on the upside he came into the league with and would likely continue to struggle if the Dolphins needed him to start in 2025. The additions of Daniels and Savaiinaea do help the Dolphins at guard, but they don’t offset the loss of Terron Armstead at left tackle and, overall, an already mediocre offensive line from a year ago looks likely to be even worse this season.

Grade: B-

Receiving Corps

As I mentioned, #1 receiver Tyreek Hill declined significantly in 2024, going from a 119/1710/7 slash line on 170 targets with 3.20 yards per route run in 2022 and a 119/1799/13 slash line on 171 targets with 3.82 yards per route run in 2023 to a 81/959/6 slash line on 123 targets with 1.75 yards per route run in 2024. Part of that is due to a reduced usage in the offense, but Hill also did not seem to be himself and saw his yards per target drop from 10.29 in 2022-2023 to 7.80 last season. Now going into his age 31 season, with the Dolphins’ new offensive philosophy here to stay, Hill is highly unlikely to bounce back to his 2022-2023 levels of production and could easily decline further.

Jaylen Waddle, the #2 receiver, also had a down year in 2024, going from a 75/1356/8 slash line on 117 targets with 2.59 yards per route run in 2022 and a 72/1014/4 slash line on 104 targets with 2.63 yards per route run in 2023 to a 58/744/2 slash line on 83 targets with 1.53 yards per route run in 2024. Unlike Hill, that is primarily due to the change in offensive philosophy, as Waddle is still only heading into his age 27 season and his 8.96 yards per target in 2024 is not too far off from his 10.72 yards per target average in 2022-2023. He will likely continue seeing a reduced role in 2025, but he’s still an above average #2 receiver who is in the prime of his career.

Tight end Jonnu Smith and running back De’Von Achane were the primary beneficiaries of the Dolphins’ new offensive philosophy. Smith, a free agent acquisition last off-season, set career highs in catches, yards, touchdowns, targets, and yards per route run, with a 88/884/8 slash line on 111 targets and 1.95 yards per route run, proving to be a great value on a 2-year, 8.4 million dollar deal. He was especially good in the 11 games Tagovailoa started, with a 62/626/5 slash line in those games, which extrapolates to a 96/967/8 slash line over 17 games. Unfortunately, Smith now wants a massive raise ahead of the second and final year of that deal and the Dolphins have been unwilling to give him that, leading to him holding out and wanting a trade if he and the Dolphins can’t come to an agreement. 

Smith had never exceeded 50 catches or 582 receiving yards in a season prior to last season and has a career average of just 1.57 yards per route run, so it’s understandable why the Dolphins wouldn’t want to pay top dollar for a player coming off of a breakout year in his eighth season in the league, especially with Smith now going into his age 30 season. However, he’s a big part of the offense, even if he regresses somewhat in 2025, and the Dolphins have another good option at tight end, so the Dolphins will ultimately have to hope they can come to a reasonable agreement with him, or risk having to trade away a key player from an offense that already has a lot of concerns.

Achane, meanwhile, ranked 2nd in the league among running backs with 87 targets last season, taking them for a 78/592/6 slash line and 1.45 yards per route run, ranking 1st among running backs in catches, 1st in receiving yards, 1st in receiving touchdowns, and 12th in yards per route run. That was a big increase from the 2023 3rd round pick’s rookie year, but he did show promise as a receiver in his first season in the league, with a 27/197/3 slash line on 37 targets and 1.12 yards per route run, so it’s not a huge surprise that he produced at the level he did with a significantly expanded opportunity in 2024. He will likely produce at a similar level in 2025 in a similar target share, potentially an even higher target share, given the state of the Dolphins’ offensive line, Tyreek Hill continuing to age on the wrong side of 30, and Jonnu Smith holding out.

Outside of Hill, Waddle, Smith, and Achane, the Dolphins have very little else in the receiving corps. Malik Washington was fifth on the team with just 36 targets and the nominal #3 wide receiver finished with a 26/223/0 slash line and 0.86 yards per route run. Washington was only a 6th round pick in 2024, so it’s not surprising he struggled as a rookie, but he’s not a guarantee to be any better in his second season in the league. He will compete with free agent acquisition Nick Westbrook-Inhine, who has a career 1.12 yards per route run average, for the #3 wide receiver role in 2025.

At tight end, the Dolphins’ other options behind Smith are 2023 undrafted free agent Julian Hill and veteran free agent addition Pharaoh Brown. Hill has averaged 0.53 yards per route run in his career and is a poor blocker as well, leading to him receiving PFF grades of 40.9 and 37.2 on snap counts of 343 and 515 in two seasons in the league, while Brown is a blocking specialist with 72 catches in 85 career games who is now heading into his age 31 season. Brown’s blocking ability likely gives him the edge for the #2 tight end job, but neither option is prepared to take over as the primary pass catching tight end if Jonnu Smith isn’t on the roster in 2025. The Dolphins have a good two wide receiver/one tight end trio, but this is a very top-heavy receiving corps.

Grade: B+

Running Backs

In addition to having a big passing game role, De’Von Achane will have a big role on the ground. As a rookie, he was a change of pace back and missed six games to injury, limiting him to 103 carries, as opposed to 209 carries for Raheem Mostert, but in 2024, that flipped, as Achane played 17 games as the lead back and had 203 carries, while Mostert was limited to 85 carries in 13 games. Achane did see his yards per carry average drop off from 7.77 as a rookie to 4.47 last season, but it was always highly unlikely that he would continue that high average from his rookie year in a bigger role, especially as the Dolphins’ offense declined around him.

Achane was still much more effective last season than Mostert, who averaged just 3.27 YPC. Mostert wasn’t brought back this off-season, which could open up an even bigger role for Achane, though the Dolphins will probably want to avoid overloading the 5-8 188 pound Achane. Behind Achane on the depth chart, the Dolphins have 2024 4th round pick Jaylen Wright, veteran free agent addition Alexander Mattison, and 6th round rookie Ollie Gordon. Wright and Mattison figure to compete for the #2 running back role. 

Wright has the higher upside and figures to be the favorite for the backup job, but he was underwhelming as a rookie, averaging just 3.66 YPC on 68 carries and averaging just 0.10 yards per route run. Mattison has been underwhelming throughout his career though, averaging 3.90 YPC on 716 carries in six seasons in the league, with 0.99 yards per route run, so the Dolphins have to be hoping Wright can take a step forward in his second season in the league. The rookie Gordon, meanwhile, figures to start his rookie year as the #4 running back. Depth is a concern behind Achane, but Achane is one of the better all-around running backs in the league, posing a threat to defenses as a runner and a receiver.

Grade: A-

Interior Defenders

The Dolphins were solid on the defensive side of the ball last season, ranking 9th in yards per play allowed and 11th in first down rate allowed, but there are reasons for concern on this side of the ball as well. Of the 12 players who played at least 500 snaps for the Dolphins on defense last season, only five of them remain on the roster and one of those five is likely to not be on their team by the time the season starts. Some of these departed players were among their most important last season and, while the Dolphins did add some replacements, overall their replacements are not nearly as good as the players they lost.

One of those key players was Calais Campbell, who led the Dolphins’ defense with a 82.3 PFF grade, doing so on 616 snaps. Campbell excelled as a run defender, ranking first among interior defenders on PFF with a 85.9 run defense grade and he also added 5 sacks, 7 hits, and a 9.7% pressure rate as a pass rusher. A lesser off-season departure is DaShawn Hand, who played 564 snaps last season and had a 60.5 PFF grade. To replace them, the Dolphins used a first round pick on Kenneth Grant, who has a big upside, but who is highly unlikely to be as good as a rookie as Campbell was last season. 

Grant will start next to Zach Sieler, one of the few good defensive players from last season who remains on this roster. Sieler finished with a 78.9 PFF grade across 749 snaps last season, playing equally well as a run defender and a pass rusher, with PFF grades above 70 in both aspects, including 10 sacks, 7 hits, and a 9.8% pressure rate as a pass rusher. For Sieler, it was his third season above 70 on PFF in the past four seasons, but he is now going into his age 30 season and could start to decline soon, which is a significant concern, considering he is one of the few talented holdovers from 2024. Even if he doesn’t drop off significantly, a slight decline from him in 2025 would further hurt this defense.

With Hand also not being retained, the Dolphins could rely more heavily on Benito Jones as their top reserve in 2025, even though he had a 51.3 PFF grade across 481 snaps last season. That wasn’t anything out of the ordinary for Jones, who has never finished above 60 on PFF in five seasons in the league, including a career worst 37.4 PFF grade across a career high 566 snaps as recently as 2023. He figures to continue struggling in 2025, this time likely in a larger role.

Other reserve options include 5th round rookie Jordan Phillips, 7th round rookie Zeek Biggers, and free agent addition Matthew Butler, a 2022 5th round pick who has played 168 nondescript snaps in three seasons in the league. All three are likely to struggle in a significant role in 2025 and there is a good one at least one of them has to play that significant role if any of their top-3 interior defenders misses time with injury. With Calais Campbell and Da’Shawn Hand gone and Zach Sieler now on the wrong side of 30, this position group looks significantly worse than a year ago, even with a first round pick in Kenneth Grant being added to the mix.

Grade: B-

Edge Defenders

If there is one reason for some optimism on this defense, it’s the fact that they are likely to be healthier, after having the seventh most adjusted games lost to injury of any defense in the league last season. Most notably, the Dolphins should get a healthier season out of edge defenders Jaelan Phillips and Bradley Chubb. Phillips was limited to 134 snaps in four games by a knee injury last season, his second straight seasons affected by a major injury, after a torn achilles ended his 2023 season and limited him to 366 snaps in eight games. 

Phillips had a 87.7 PFF grade in his last healthy season in 2022 and seemed to be on his way to a similar season in 2023, with a 79.8 PFF grade at the time he got hurt. Between 2022 and 2023, Phillips had 13.5 sacks, 23 hits, and a 14.1% pressure rate in 25 games. Still only going into his age 26 season, Phillips has obvious bounce back potential if he can stay healthy and return to form in 2025, but that’s far from a guarantee, given his recent injury history.

Chubb, meanwhile, didn’t play a snap last season as he struggled to recover from a brutal knee injury suffered in week 17 of the 2023 season, which included a torn patellar tendon. He has now missed 43 games in seven seasons in the league and has had two significant knee injuries in his career, so there is no guarantee he ever returns to form. However, he has been a high level pass rusher throughout his career, with 39.5 sacks, 57 hits, and a 12.4% pressure rate in 73 career games, and he had his best season in 2023 before getting hurt, with a 88.8 PFF grade and 11 sacks, 15 hits, and a 14.7% pressure rate in 16 games. He could be a useful player even at less than his best and he’s still only going into his age 29 season, but it’s hard to know what to expect from him.

In the absence of Phillips and Chubb, the Dolphins were led in snaps played at the edge defender position last season by Emmanuel Ogbah, who struggled with a 59.7 PFF grade across 734 snaps, particularly struggling as a pass rusher, with 5 sacks, 6 hits, and a 8.0% pressure rate. Ogbah is no longer with the team, which could be addition by subtraction, especially if Phillips and/or Chubb stay relatively healthy and bounce back somewhat to form in 2025. 

The Dolphins also got a solid season out of 2024 1st round pick Chop Robinson last season, as he had a 70.0 PFF grade across 565 snaps as a rookie, while totaling 6 sacks, 8 hits, and a 16.3% pressure rate as a pass rusher. Now going into his second season in the league, he could easily take a step forward and be even better in 2025. In a best case scenario, Chubb and Phillips stay healthy, play at or close to their prime form, and form a talented trio with Robinson, who takes a best step forward in his second season in the league, but a lot has to go right for that scenario to come to fruition. 

If any of those players miss time with injury in 2025, their depth outside of the top-3 is a concern. Aside from Robinson, Quinton Bell played the most snaps of any returning Dolphins edge rusher in 2024 and he had a decent 64.8 PFF grade, but the 2019 7th round is highly unproven, playing just 258 snaps last season, after playing just 61 snaps total in the first five seasons of his career. Other options include Mohamed Kamara, a 2024 5th round pick who played 26 underwhelming snaps as a rookie, and Cameron Goode, a 2022 7th round pick who has played just 87 snaps in three seasons in the league. This group has a lot of potential upside, but also a lot of potential downside.

Grade: B+

Linebackers

The Dolphins also lost linebacker Anthony Walker this off-season, but he finished with just a 48.0 PFF grade across 516 snaps in 11 games last season, so his absence could be addition by subtraction. He will be replaced by Tyrel Dobson, who replaced Walker down the stretch last season, after being added mid-season. Dobson has had an interesting past two seasons. Dobson played 550 snaps in 2023 with the Bills as an injury replacement and excelled, with a 89.5 PFF grade, despite being a 2019 undrafted free agent who had previously played just 471 snaps in his first four seasons in the league, while never finishing above 60 on PFF. 

In 2024, Dobson signed with the Seahawks as a free agent and continue to play well in coverage, but his run defense dropped off significantly and he was ultimately let go mid-season for reasons that likely had to do with more than just football, as he had a 65.8 PFF grade across 603 snaps at the time of his release. The Dolphins then picked him up and he played about the same as he did in Seattle, with a 66.8 PFF grade across 251 snaps in five games. 

Dobson finished the 2024 season with a 67.3 PFF grade, which was a significant drop off from the year before, but he did play a new career high of 854 snaps, despite changing teams mid-season, and, in terms of coverage grade, he ranked 4th among linebackers on PFF at 82.9.  Now going into 2025, he seems likely to remain a high level coverage linebacker, still only in his age 27 season, but whether or not his run defense bounces back remains to be seen.

Dodson will start next to Jordyn Brooks, who was solid as an every down linebacker last season, with a 71.3 PFF grade across 1,039 snaps. That was a career best year for him though, as he had previously finished below 60 on PFF in each of his first four seasons in the league. Brooks is a former first round pick and could just be a late bloomer, but it’s also very possible he regresses somewhat in 2025 and fails to repeat his career best 2024 campaign.

The Dolphins also added some depth options this off-season, signing veterans Willie Gay and KJ Britt in free agency. Gay was a second round pick in 2020 and showed some promise early in his career, finishing above 60 on PFF in two of his first three seasons in the league, but he has fallen below 60 on PFF in each of the past two seasons, including a 44.1 PFF grade across just 277 snaps last season, which is why he had to settle for a backup job this off-season. Britt, meanwhile, struggled with a 44.6 PFF grade across 613 snaps last season in the first significant action of his career, after the 2021 5th round pick played just 234 snaps across the first three seasons in the league from 2021-2023. Both Britt and Gay would likely struggle if forced into a significant role by an injury to either Dodson or Brooks, but Dodson and Brooks are at least a solid starting duo.

Grade: B+

Secondary

The Dolphins’ secondary is the group that lost the most this off-season. Both of their starting safeties from a year ago, Jevon Holland and Jordan Poyer, are no longer with the team, nor is starting cornerback Kendall Fuller. None had a great season in 2024, but they all finished with PFF grades in the 60s and the players the Dolphins added to replace them are underwhelming. Additionally, the Dolphins are likely to be without top cornerback Jalen Ramsey this season, as he is expected to be traded or released prior to the start of the season, despite a 76.9 PFF grade in 17 starts last season. For the sake of this preview, I will project this unit as if Ramsey is not currently on the team.

Kader Kohou is the Dolphins’ top returning cornerback and he was decent with a 64.5 PFF grade across 708 snaps, but he is no one’s idea of a #1 cornerback, as he has played primarily on the slot and has received PFF grades in the 60s in each of his three seasons in the league. For outside cornerback options, the best the Dolphins have is mediocre holdovers Storm Duck and Cam Smith, mediocre free agent additions Kendall Sheffield and Artie Burns, and 5th round rookie Jason Marshall.

Smith probably has the most upside of the bunch, as he was a 2nd round pick in 2023, but he has shown next to nothing in two seasons in the league, playing just 155 snaps total. Last season, he was behind Storm Duck on the depth chart, even though Duck was an undrafted rookie who had just a 55.5 PFF grade across 359 snaps. Artie Burns was a first round pick in 2016 and showed promise early in his career, but he’s played just 938 snaps in his past seven seasons and now is heading into his age 30 season, so he’s only a desperation starting option. Sheffield, meanwhile, is a 2019 4th round pick who struggled with PFF grades of 47.5 and 40.3 on snap counts of 697 and 524 in his first two seasons in the league respectively and has since played just 169 snaps in four seasons in the league. It’s very possible the rookie Marshall will have to make starts for the Dolphins this season, even though it’s likely he would struggle if he did so.

At safety, the Dolphins are expected to start a pair of free agent additions in Ashtyn Davis and Ifeatu Melifonwu, both of whom are underwhelming options. Both are former third round picks, in the 2020 and 2021 drafts respectively, but neither have ever been a regular starter and neither have shown enough potential as reserves to give me confidence that they will be capable starters. Davis has averaged just 328 snaps per season in five seasons in the league, while making a total of just 22 starts, and Melifonwu has averaged just 219 snaps per season in four seasons in the league, while making a total of just 14 starts. Other options at safety include 5th round rookie Dante Trader and career special teamer Elijah Campbell, who has played just 284 defensive snaps in seven seasons in the league. This overall looks like arguably the worst secondary in the league.

Grade: C

Kicker

Jason Sanders is entering his 8th season as the Dolphins’ kicker. He has been inconsistent throughout his career, finishing below average in three of seven seasons, but he has overall accounted for 14.00 points above average in seven seasons in the league and he has had some great seasons, including a 2020 season in which he led the league with 13.91 points above average and a 2024 season in which he ranked 7th in the league with 7.66 points above average. It’s tough to know what to expect from him in 2025, but most likely he will be a slightly above average kicker, though not as good as he was a year ago.

Grade: B+

Conclusion

The Dolphins had significant losses this off-season, particularly on defense and, overall, look significantly worse as a team than they were a year ago. They could be healthier, after finishing with the 5th most adjusted games lost to injury in the league last season, but they still have a lot of key players with significant injury histories. They also will face a tougher schedule this season, after having the easiest opponents strength of schedule of any team in the league last season. Overall, it seems unlikely they will even reach last season’s win total of eight.

Update: The Dolphins did trade Jalen Ramsey and also Jonnu Smith as well, but they got back Minkah Fitzpatrick to upgrade their safety room and replaced Smith with Darren Waller, which isn’t a big downgrade. Overall, this team looks like they are in better shape than they were a month ago, but I would still expect them to finish below .500.

Prediction: 7-10, 3rd in AFC East

Quarterbacks

Heading into the off-season before the 2019 season, the Dolphins had been stuck in mediocrity for over a decade and a half. They had won at least 6 games in all but 2 of their previous 17 seasons, but had only finished above .500 five times, never winning more than 11 games in a season, with just two playoff appearances and no playoff victories. To try to get out of that cycle, the Dolphins pursued an aggressive rebuilding strategy, trading away numerous veterans to try to tank for a high draft pick and a potential young franchise quarterback, and to accumulate future draft picks and cap space to surround that young franchise quarterback with as much talent as possible while he was still on his cheap rookie deal.

The strategy landed them their 5th overall pick in the 2020 NFL Draft after a 5-11 season and they used that draft pick on Tua Tagovailoa, who they systematically loaded up on talent around over the next few off-seasons, using their draft picks to add more young talent in the draft and to trade for impact veterans, while also being aggressive in free agency. The Dolphins immediately jumped to 10-6 in 2020 and rattled off four consecutive seasons with records above .500, but they still couldn’t get over the hump, maxing out with a 11-6 season in 2023 and losing in the first round of both of their playoff appearances, pushing their playoff win drought to 23 seasons, the longest active drought in the NFL.

Last season was especially frustrating. They came out of the gates looking like one of the best teams in the league, starting 3-0 and 6-2, but went just 5-4 after that hot start. In terms of DVOA, the Dolphins were better than their final record, ranking 6th overall, but that didn’t matter when the post-season began. Many will blame their late season collapse on their schedule getting tougher and, in fact, they did finish just 1-6 against playoff qualifiers if you count their first round post-season loss to the Chiefs, with 5 of those 7 games coming in the second half of the season after their hot start, but they won their games against non-playoff qualifiers convincingly enough that it should have translated into more success against better opponents than they had. 

The bigger problem was they increasingly lost key players to injury down the stretch. They finished the season with the 12th most adjusted games lost to injury, which doesn’t sound bad, but those injuries were disproportionately to their key players and they disproportionately happened down the stretch, to the point where the Dolphins were basically a skeleton crew by season’s end and didn’t stand a chance on the road against the eventual Super Bowl Champion Chiefs in the first round of the playoffs.

Making last season even more frustrating is the fact that their window is starting to close. Tagovailoa is no longer on the cheap part of his rookie contract, owed 23.171 million in 2024 and will be due an increase even from that on his eventual long-term extension, while the bill is starting to come due for many of the talented players the Dolphins surrounded Tagovailoa with over the years. The Dolphins’ aggressive rebuilding strategy made sense, but they had a limited window to go on a deep playoff run and it’s looking like that window is about to close, if it hasn’t already. Rather than continuing to load up on additional talent around the quarterback this off-season, the Dolphins had to part ways with several talented players.

I’ll get into the Dolphins’ off-season losses later, but probably the biggest problem with the Dolphins’ rebuilding strategy was their choice of quarterback, as Tagovailoa has not looked like the right quarterback to lead this team all the way. Tagovailoa struggled for most of his first two seasons in the league, completing a combined 66.2% of his passes for an average of 6.59 YPA, 27 touchdowns, and 15 interceptions in 21 starts, while repeatedly getting benched for veteran journeyman Ryan Fitzpatrick. 

Tagovailoa has been a lot more productive over the past two seasons, completing a combined 67.4% of his passes for an average of 8.51 YPA, 54 touchdowns, and 22 interceptions in 30 starts, but he missed four games with injury in 2022 and, while he stayed healthy in 2023, a lot of his statistical success can be attributed to the talent and scheme he’s had around him and he’s consistently underperformed in big games against tough opponents. Making matters worse for the Dolphins, a quarterback who could have had success with this roster, Justin Herbert, was available for the taking, going just one spot after Tagovailoa to the Chargers with the 6th pick in the 2020 NFL Draft.

Now the Dolphins are in a tough spot with Tagovailoa. Starting over at the quarterback position would be tough, because the Dolphins don’t have an obvious path to finding a better quarterback, unless they blow it all up again, start completely over, and tried to tank and find another quarterback atop the draft. However, Tagovailoa also isn’t the kind of quarterback who deserves the kind of extension the Dolphins will likely have to give him to stay long-term. 

The track record of non-elite quarterbacks being paid at the highest level is not good, with the only quarterbacks who have accounted for more than 11% of their team’s cap and won the Super Bowl being Hall of Famers or future Hall of Famers, as it’s very tough to surround a non-elite quarterback with enough talent to win at the highest level if that quarterback is taking up a significant portion of the salary cap. If Tagovailoa couldn’t find playoff success with the amount of talent he’s had around him the past couple seasons, it’s unlikely he’ll find that success with a diminished supporting cast and that’s the reality the Dolphins are faced with if and when they ultimately end up paying their quarterback. 

Tagovailoa’s durability also still lingers as a problem. He stayed healthy last season, but has suffered numerous injuries dating back to his collegiate days, most notable a series of concussions that might legitimately have him a concussion or two away from having to either miss significant time or hang them up for good for his own safety. If Tagovailoa misses time in 2024, the Dolphins would turn to Mike White, a mediocre quarterback with a completion percentage of 62.6%, a YPA average of 7.09, and 9 touchdowns to 13 interceptions on 313 career passes since going in the 5th round in 2018.

White would be an obvious downgrade even if Tagovailoa is not an elite quarterback and if White had to start for an extended period of time in 2024, the Dolphins would likely find it difficult to even qualify for the post-season.  The one saving grace is Tagovailoa is only in his age 26 season and still theoretically could have untapped upside, but he’ll have to take his game to another level if this team is ever going to go on a deep playoff run with him under center. There are definitely worse quarterback rooms than this, but the Dolphins are in a very difficult spot from a team building standpoint and, even if they stay healthier than they did a year ago, it’s hard to see them being more successful, in the regular season or in the post-season, given the talented players they lost this off-season, unless Tagovailoa can take his game to another level.

Grade: B+

Offensive Line

One area where the Dolphins lost key players this off-season was on the offensive line, with Connor Williams and Robert Hunt both not being retained this off-season. Williams and Hunt were among the key players who missed time with injury last season, limited to 497 snaps in 9 games and 547 snaps in 10 games respectively, but they also had PFF grades of 86.5 and 77.1 respectively, so they will definitely be missed. The Dolphins at least somewhat replaced Williams through free agency, signing Aaron Brewer to a 3-year, 21 million dollar deal to be their new starting center. 

Undrafted in 2020, Brewer became the Titans full-time starting center in his third season in the league in 2022 and struggled with a 59.9 PFF grade in 17 starts, but he took a step forward in his second season as a starter in 2023, finishing with a 71.6 PFF grade on 17 starts. He’s a one-year wonder in terms of playing at that level and it’s possible he is unable to repeat that season, but he’s not a bad signing either, for the price the Dolphins got him at. He will almost definitely be a downgrade from Williams even if he doesn’t decline, but at least he should stay healthier than the injury prone Williams.

Hunt, on the other hand, was not replaced this off-season. Instead, the Dolphins will have a competition between Lester Cotton, Robert Jones, and Isaiah Wynn, who all saw starts at guard last season, as well as Jack Driscoll, a low-level free agent signing from the Eagles. Two of those four players will likely open the season as the starting guards and, given that they’re all underwhelming options, it’s likely that three or all four of them see action at some point this season as the Dolphins try to find a combination that works.

Cotton had the most starts of the bunch a year ago, making 8 starts, but that was out of character for him, as the 2019 undrafted free agent had previously played just 95 career snaps in four seasons in the league, and he predictably struggled when forced into a larger role in 2023, finishing with a 46.4 PFF grade. Wynn also struggled with a 47.8 PFF grade in 7 starts, before going down for the season with an injury. Wynn was a first round pick back in 2018, but injuries have been a problem for him throughout his career, costing him 47 games in 6 seasons in the league. He showed some potential early in his career, but injuries seem to have sapped that potential, as he’s finished below 60 on PFF in back-to-back seasons. Now going into his age 29 season, his bounce back potential is limited, even if he can manage to stay on the field.

Robert Jones wasn’t bad last season, with a 60.9 PFF grade, but injuries also limited him to 418 snaps in 7 games. Undrafted in 2021, Jones also had a 62.0 PFF grade on 449 snaps in 2022, so he’s shown some potential, but he could struggle to hold up as a season-long starter and it’s unlikely he has a lot of upside, given that he wasn’t drafted. Driscoll, meanwhile, made 17 starts in four seasons with the Eagles after being drafted in the 4th round in 2020 and he had mixed results, finishing above 60 on PFF in two of his four seasons in the league and below 60 in his other two seasons. He would also likely struggle if forced into a season-long starting role. Overall, none of the Dolphins four guard options are promising, which is a big concern entering the season.

Making matters worse for the Dolphins on the offensive line, left tackle Terron Armstead is now going into his age 33 season. Armstead has consistently has issues with injuries, missing 59 games in 11 seasons in the league, with at least two games missed in all but one season, including 7 games missed in 2023, but he’s also always played at a pretty high level, exceeding 75 on PFF in ten straight seasons, with six seasons over 80, including a 80.9 PFF grade in 2023. Given his age, Armstead is likely to miss time again with injury at some point in 2024 and it’s very possible he declines noticeably. He’ll probably still remain at least a solid starter even if he does decline, but any drop off from him would be a big deal on an offensive line that already had lost significant talent from a year ago.

Because of Armstead’s age and injury history, the Dolphins used their second round pick on offensive tackle Patrick Paul to give them another insurance policy option. He’ll compete with Kendall Lamm, a veteran who had a 64.3 PFF grade on 613 snaps a year ago, for the swing tackle role. Lamm has been most decent in 37 starts in 9 seasons in the league, mostly as a backup, but he’s going into his age 32 season and doesn’t have a high upside, so Paul is probably the favorite for the top reserve tackle job, even as a rookie.

There are a couple other ways Paul could get on the field besides an injury, as the Dolphins could opt to try him at guard, or they could play him at right tackle and move Austin Jackson inside to guard where he has experience, but there’s no indication the Dolphins are considering doing either of those things and it’s possible Paul could struggle as a rookie if he ends up in a starting role. 

Jackson was a first round pick in 2020, but he was mostly a bust in the first three seasons of his career, with PFF grades of 52.5, 49.9, and 57.9 across 30 starts in 2020, 2021, and 2022 respectively. Jackson took a big step forward in year four, finishing with a 68.4 PFF grade in 16 starts, and was subsequently extended on a 3-year, 36 million dollar deal after originally having his 5th year option declined. It’s possible he could regress in 2024, but he’s also only going into his age 25 season and came into the league with a lot of talent, so it’s also very possible he’s permanently turned a corner and could remain at least a solid starter, with the upside for more. Barring an unexpected move back to guard, Jackson is likely locked into as the starting right tackle. Even if he doesn’t regress though, this is overall a very underwhelming offensive line compared to a year ago.

Grade: B-

Receiving Corps

Fortunately, the Dolphins kept all of their key skill position players this off-season, led by the wide receiver duo of Tyreek Hill and Jaylen Waddle. Arguably the best wide receiver duo in the league, Hill and Waddle both finished with PFF grades over 90 in 2023, at 93.7 and 90.7 respectively, and the Dolphins ran a huge portion of their offense through them, as they accounted for 48.6% of the Dolphins targets, 59.9% of their receiving yards, and 56.7% of their receiving touchdowns, all most in the NFL by a wide receiver duo.

For Hill, it was a career best year in terms of yardage (1,799), PFF grade, and yards per route run (3.82), which is even more impressive when you consider that he’s been in the league eight years and has exceeded 80 on PFF in all eight seasons, with 1,267 receiving yards per season and 2.61 yards per route run. Hill’s age is a bit of a concern, now going into his age 30 season, but he’s shown no signs of slowing down and, even if he does decline in 2024, he’s starting from such a high base point that he figures to remain one of the best wide receivers in the league regardless. The Dolphins paid a steep price to acquire Hill during the 2022 off-season, giving up first and second round picks and giving him a 3-year, 75 million dollar deal, but he has been well worth it, given how he has transformed this offense.

Waddle also transformed this offense when he was added as the 6th overall pick in the 2021 NFL Draft and he has gotten better in every season in the league. His yardage total in 2023 (72/1014/4) was actually the worst of his 3-year career, after slash lines of 104/1015/6 and 75/1356/8 in 2021 and 2022 respectively, but that was mostly because he missed three games with injury and didn’t run as many routes per game on a more balanced offense. In terms of yards per route run, Waddle had a career high with 2.64 (1.75 in 2021 and 2.59 in 2022) and the same was true of his PFF grade, after he had a 78.3 grade as a rookie and a 83.9 grade in 2023. Still only in his age 26 season, I would expect him to continue playing at a high level in 2024, after the Dolphins wisely locked him up long-term on a 3-year, 84.75 million dollar extension this off-season.

With Hill and Waddle getting a huge chunk of the targets on this offense, there wasn’t much left over for anyone else, with tight end Durham Smythe ranking third on the team in catches, targets, and yards with just 35, 43, and 366 respectively. The Dolphins did add a couple pass catchers in free agency this off-season to give them some more options in the passing game, signing Odell Beckham to be the #3 receiver and tight end Jonnu Smith to compete with Smythe for the starting tight end job, but I wouldn’t expect huge roles for either of them as the Dolphins will continue to run their offense through Hill and Waddle.

Beckham used to be one of the best wide receivers in the league, exceeding 1000 yards in five of his first six seasons in the league from 2014-2019, with the exception being a season ended by injury after 4 games, but injuries have caught up to him in recent years, limiting him to 35 games in the past four seasons, with just a 50/690/5 slash line per 17 games. He still has a decent 1.60 yards per route run average over that 4-year span, but he now heads into his age 32 season and it’s likely he’ll miss more time with injury and/or regress further. 

It wouldn’t be hard for Beckham to be an upgrade over Cedrick Wilson, their nominal #3 receiver a year ago who had a 22/296/3 slash line and a 1.09 yards per route run average, but I don’t expect Beckham to be a big part of this offense unless Hill or Waddle get hurt, in which case he’d be a huge downgrade from either one. Braxton Berrios, meanwhile, remains as the #4 receiver, but he had just a 27/238/1 slash line and a 0.68 yards per route run average in 2023, so he’s not a big part of this offense either. In his career, Berrios has averaged 1.30 yards per route run, but just 0.76 yards per route run over the past two seasons.

Jonnu Smith, meanwhile, has a decent 1.61 yards per route run average over the past five seasons, but he’s been a part-time tight end for most of that time and has never exceeded 582 yards receiving in a season, something he’s unlikely to do in 2024, splitting time with Durham Smythe on an offense that doesn’t utilize the tight end spot much. I would expect him to outproduce Smythe though, as Smythe is more of a blocking specialist who has averaged just 1.00 yards per route run in his career, with a maximum of 366 yards receiving in a season in six seasons in the league. Beckham and Smith upgrade this offense slightly, but this receiving corps still will run through Hill and Waddle, who remain arguably the best wide receiver duo in the league.

Grade: A

Running Backs

The Dolphins also got great production from their top two running backs Raheem Mostert and De’Von Achane in 2023. Mostert led the team with 209 carries and averaged 4.84 YPC with 18 touchdowns in 15 games, while Achane averaged a ridiculous 7.77 YPC, but was limited to just 103 carries in 11 games. When both backs were healthy though, that carry split was a lot closer. Excluding two games where Achane played but was clearly not healthy and only had one carry, Achane and Mostert were healthy for seven games together and Mostert had 88 carries to 77 for Achane in those seven games.

In 2024, I would expect them to continue having a pretty even split as long as both are healthy and it’s very possible that Achane ends up as the top back. Not only did he significantly outproduce Mostert last season, but Achane was only a rookie last season, while Mostert is now going into his age 32 season. Achane is also a significantly better pass catcher, averaging 1.12 yards per route run last season, as opposed to 0.68 for Mostert, who has a career average of 0.88. Durability is a concern for Achane after an injury plagued rookie season, but Mostert has a significant history of injuries as well, missing 26 games over the past five seasons, and as a result he’s never had more carries in a season than the 209 carries he had last season, when he also missed a couple games with injury.

Regardless of the carry split, Achane and Mostert should both remain very effective running backs. Achane is highly unlikely to average anywhere close to what he averaged last season, especially in a larger role, partially because no one has that kind of average for an extended period of time, partially because the Dolphins’ offensive line won’t be as good this season, but he should still remain a highly effective back. Mostert, meanwhile, has a career 4.84 YPC average and, even if he doesn’t match that this season, given his age and the Dolphins’ offensive line situation, he should still remain an effective back. 

The Dolphins will be hoping both Achane and Mostert will be healthier than they were a year ago, but the Dolphins used a 4th round pick on Jaylen Wright to improve their depth at the position. Last season, Jeff Wilson and Salvon Ahmed were their top backs behind Mostert and Achane and they averaged just 3.95 yards per carry with 0.97 yards per route run combined. Wilson does have a career 4.49 YPC average, but he has just 515 carries in six seasons in the league and has averaged just 0.85 yards per route run, while Ahmed has averaged just 3.64 YPC on 163 carries in four seasons in the league, with 1.00 yards per route run. There’s no guarantee that Jaylen Wright will be better than them as a rookie, but the Dolphins at least like his upside and there’s a chance he ends up as a long-term replacement for the aging Raheem Mostert. This remains a talented backfield and they could be deeper than a year ago if the rookie Jaylen Wright has an impact.

Grade: A-

Edge Defenders

The Dolphins’ defense is where the majority of their off-season losses were. Since last season, 5 of their top-9 and 9 of their top-17 in terms of snaps played on defense are no longer on the team. The player they lost who played the best last season is edge defender Andrew Van Ginkel, who had a 91.1 PFF grade on 727 snaps, totaling 6 sacks, 15 hits, and a 16.5% pressure rate and also excelling as a run defender and in coverage, before signing with the Vikings on a 2-year, 20 million dollar deal this off-season. The Dolphins also lost Emmanuel Ogbah, though he played just 248 snaps in 14 games last season, contributing as a pass rusher with 5 sacks, 3 hits, and a 13.2% pressure rate, but struggling mightily against the run and finishing with an overall 55.4 PFF grade, so he won’t be missed too much.

To try to replace the players they lost, the Dolphins signed veteran Shaq Barrett to a 1-year, 7 million dollar deal and then used their first round pick on Chop Robinson. Both will have significant roles this season along with holdovers Bradley Chubb and Jaelen Phillips. Chubb excelled last season, finishing with a 88.8 PFF grade, playing the run well and especially excelling as a pass rusher with 11 sacks, 15 hits, and a 14.7% pressure rate, in his first full season in Miami after being acquired for a first round pick during the 2022 season, when the Dolphins also gave him a 5-year, 110 million dollar extension.

A first round pick in 2018 by the Broncos, Chubb had shown a lot of promise in his career prior to last season, especially as a pass rusher, with 28.5 sacks, 42 hits, and a 11.7% pressure rate in 57 games, but he missed 25 games with injury in those five seasons and consistently struggled against the run, leading to him maxing out with a 70.7 season-long PFF grade during those five seasons. Chubb is still in his prime in his age 28 season, but it wouldn’t be a surprise to see him either regress somewhat after by far the best season of his career and/or miss more time with injury, after tearing his ACL late last season, making him a question mark for the start of the 2024 season.

Phillips also played well last season with a 79.8 PFF grade, but he was limited to 8 games by injuries and is questionable for the start of the 2024 season after an achilles tear. Even if he is ready for the start of the season, he might not be at his best in his first year back. That being said, even at less than his best, he’s a welcome re-addition. A first round pick by the Dolphins in 2021, Phillips was underwhelming as a rookie, but he’s been much better the past two seasons, maxing out with a 87.7 PFF grade on 838 snaps in 2022 and totaling 13.5 sacks, 23 hits, and a 14.1% pressure rate in 25 games, while also playing the run well. Still only in his age 25 season, he has a very bright future if he can get past his injury.

First round rookie Chop Robinson and veteran free agent acquisition Shaq Barrett give the Dolphins good depth at this position and will rotate with Chubb and Phillips frequently. Robinson could have growing pains as a rookie, but he has a high upside long-term and he should at least be a useful rotational player as a rookie. Barrett, meanwhile, is probably on the way down, going into his age 32 season, but he’s starting from such a high base point that he should continue playing at a relatively high level in a rotational role. 

Barrett finished above 70 on PFF in seven straight seasons from 2015-2021, playing the run well and adding 51.5 sacks, 63 hits, and a 14.0% pressure rate in 107 games, despite going undrafted in 2014. He fell to a 68.3 PFF grade in an injury shortened season in 2022 (382 snaps), but bounced back pretty well with a 75.3 PFF grade in 2023, while totaling 4.5 sacks, 7 hits, and a 13.8% pressure rate. Because of his age, he was still let go by the Buccaneers ahead of a 15 million dollar non-guaranteed salary this off-season, but he could be a great value for the Dolphins on a much cheaper deal. The Dolphins will miss Andrew Van Ginkel and Bradley Chubb could regress after a career best year in 2023, but this is still a deep and talented position group, arguably deeper than a year ago.

Grade: A

Interior Defenders

The Dolphins also lost a key player at the interior defender position this off-season, letting Christian Wilkins walk in free agency, despite a 2023 season in which he had a 74.9 PFF grade on 895 snaps, playing the run well and also contributing 9 sacks, 17 hits, and a 10.3% pressure rate as a pass rusher. The Dolphins wanted to keep Wilkins, but, given their financial situation, franchise tagging him was not realistic, nor was matching the 4-year, 110 million dollar deal he ended up getting from the Raiders. The Dolphins also lost Raekwon Davis, though that isn’t as big of a loss, as he finished last season with a 58.8 PFF grade on 499 snaps. 

Unlike on the edge, the Dolphins did a pretty poor job of replacing the players they lost, with veteran free agent additions Neville Gallimore, Benito Jones, Teair Tart, and Jonathan Harris all being underwhelming options. Those four will all compete for rotational roles, along with holdover Da’Shawn Hand, who excelled in limited action last season and who could see an increase on the 199 snaps he played in 2023. Giving Hand more playing time is probably their best option because he’s shown a lot of promise in his career, but he’s also never exceeded 455 snaps played in six seasons in the league, averaging 202 snaps played per season, while missing 54 games total over that span due to injury, so he’s not the most reliable option and his impressive play in limited action might not translate to a larger role.

Of the newcomers, Teair Tart probably is the best. The 2020 undrafted free agent has finished below 60 on PFF in three of four seasons in the league, but he at least showed some potential with a 73.1 PFF grade on 520 snaps in 2022, playing the run well and also contributing a 8.5% pressure rate. He regressed to a 54.0 PFF grade on 378 snaps in 2023 and was cut by the Titans mid-season, before landing with the Texans to finish the season, but unlike the rest of the Dolphins’ free agent acquisitions, Tart at least has had one good season in his career. That doesn’t mean he’ll have another one in 2024, but by default he’s better than the alternatives.

Neville Gallimore was a 3rd round pick by the Cowboys in 2020, but never lived up to his potential, finishing below 60 on PFF in all four seasons on an average of 318 snaps, including a 57.8 PFF grade on 288 snaps in 2023. Benito Jones was an undrafted free agent in 2020, barely played early in his career, and then finished with PFF grades of 53.3 and 37.4 on snap counts of 309 and 566 respectively over the past two seasons. Jonathan Harris went undrafted in 2019, played just 361 total snaps in his first four seasons in the league, before struggling with a 52.0 PFF grade in by far the biggest snap count of his career in 2023, playing 529 snaps. All three figure to struggle if forced to play a significant role, which at least one of them likely will, and Teair Tart could also struggle if he doesn’t bounce back to his 2022 form.

The Dolphins at least still have Zach Sieler, who will be their top interior defender with Wilkins gone. A 7th round pick in 2018, Sieler took a couple years to develop, but he’s finished with PFF grades of 69.3, 84.9, 74.7, and 68.1 on snap counts of 532, 518, 874, and 857 respectively over the past four seasons, playing the run well and also totaling 19 sacks, 29 hits, and a 8.4% pressure rate over that time period. Still in his late prime in his age 29 season, I would expect another above average season as an every down player from him in 2024. He elevates a position group that is in pretty rough shape aside from him.

Grade: B-

Linebackers

The Dolphins also let go of linebacker Jerome Baker this off-season, ahead of a 11.133 million dollar salary owed in 2024. He probably wasn’t quite worth that salary, but he had a 66.6 PFF grade across 713 snaps in 13 games last season, so he’s not a small loss. To replace him, the Dolphins signed a couple options, Jordyn Brooks and Anthony Walker, who come over on contracts worth 26.25 million over 3 years and 1.3775 million over 1 year respectively. Brooks was a first round pick by the Seahawks in 2020 and has averaged 979 snaps per season over the past three seasons, but he’s finished below 60 on PFF in all four seasons in the league and would be an underwhelming replacement for Baker.

Walker has more upside, having finished with PFF grades of 69.1, 82.7, and 71.1 over the past three seasons, but he’s also missed 23 games over those three seasons, while playing an average of just 425 snaps per season. Walker is only going into his age 29 season and has finished above 60 on PFF in six of seven seasons in the league, but durability has been a consistent problem for him throughout his career, costing him 30 games total in seven seasons in the league, while costing him at least one game in all but two seasons. If he can stay healthy, he should be a solid starter, but that’s far from a guarantee.

It’s possible both Brooks and Walker have roles in this linebacking corps, but they’ll have to compete for roles in a group that, while it lacks a high level linebacker, still has pretty good depth even without Jerome Baker. David Long had a 68.9 PFF grade on 823 snaps last season, after PFF grades of 67.4 and 76.2 on snap counts of 740 and 829 over the two seasons prior to last season. He has issues in coverage and should probably see a smaller snap count this season because of that, but he is a great run defender and should at least have a base package role. 

The Dolphins also have Duke Riley, who had a 72.5 PFF grade on 394 snaps last season, though he’s never been that good before in a season and has finished below 60 on PFF in four of seven seasons in the league, while averaging 317 snaps per season and maxing out at 571 snaps in a season. Riley is also now going into his age 30 season. He’s good depth, but could wind up as the odd man out in a deeper linebacking corps than a year ago. All four of their linebackers have their issues, Brooks having struggled throughout his career, Long struggling in coverage, Walker being injury prone, and Duke Riley being inconsistent and having never played an every down role, but the Dolphins at least have options in this position group.

Grade: B

Secondary

The Dolphins also lost some key players in the secondary. At safety, Brandon Jones (76.8 PFF grade on 464 snaps) and DeShon Elliott (72.6 PFF grade on 926 snaps) weren’t retained this off-season. The Dolphins signed Jordan Poyer to a 1-year, 2 million dollar deal to be the starter opposite holdover Jevon Holland and Poyer has been a consistent above average safety for years, surpassing 60 on PFF in seven straight seasons and 70 on PFF on five straight seasons, but he’s now going into his age 33 season and could decline. Even if Poyer doesn’t decline, the Bills lack depth behind him and Holland, with their top reserve options being Elijah Campbell, who has played just 207 snaps in six seasons in the league, and 6th round rookie Patrick McMorris, who would almost definitely struggle if forced into a big role in year one.

The Dolphins’ lack of safety depth could become a big problem, as not only is Poyer getting up there in age, but he’s also missed 6 games over the past three seasons, while Holland has also missed 6 games in three seasons in the league. Best case scenario, Poyer doesn’t regress and both stay healthy, in which case they’d be one of the better safety duos in the league, with Holland, who is only in his age 24 season, having received PFF grades of 84.7, 65.5, and 90.4 since going in the 2nd round in 2021. More likely, Poyer regresses somewhat and at least one of them misses time with injury and exposes their lack of depth. Even if Poyer regresses, he and Holland should still be a good safety duo, with Holland being one of the top safeties in the league, but their lack of depth is a concern.

At cornerback, the Dolphins let go of veteran Xavien Howard, who was owed 18.5 million in what would have been his age 31 season in 2024, as well as Eli Apple, but both struggled with PFF grades of 55.1 and 55.3 respectively on snap counts of 743 and 551 last season, so they won’t really be missed much, especially since the Dolphins made a great signing bringing in Kendall Fuller on a 2-year, 15 million dollar deal. Fuller will start alongside Jalen Ramsey, with Kader Kohou on the slot, and the Dolphins also have 2023 2nd round pick Cam Smith waiting in the wings as good depth, after flashing potential as a rookie, albeit on just 22 defensive snaps.

Fuller should prove to be a bargain at the price the Dolphins got him at, as he’s surpassed 60 on PFF in seven straight seasons, including five seasons over 70, three of which have come in the past three seasons, when he has made 48 of a possible 51 starts and finished with PFF grades of 81.5, 76.6, and 83.1 respectively. Still only in his age 29 season, I would expect him to continue playing at least at an above average level and, if he plays like he has the past three seasons, he should be a significant upgrade, at a cheaper price, over the departed Xavien Howard, who had struggled through injuries in recent years.

The Dolphins also should get more out of Jalen Ramsey this season, after he was limited to 585 snaps in 10 games last season and probably wasn’t fully healthy even when he did play, finishing with a 66.4 PFF grade, his worst in eight seasons in the league. Ramsey is going into his age 30 season and it wouldn’t be a surprise if his best years were behind him at this point, but even if he does decline, he’s starting from a high base point, having finished above 70 on PFF in seven straight seasons prior to last season, including three seasons above 80, most recently a 84.5 grade in 2021 and a 86.4 grade in 2022. 

Even with Ramsey’s age being a minor concern, I would expect the Dolphins to get more out of him in 2024 than they did in 2023. Meanwhile, slot cornerback Kader Kohou has received PFF grades of 69.8 and 64.5 on snap counts of 895 and 937 respectively in two seasons in the league, despite going undrafted in 2022, and he should continue playing at a similar level in 2024. The Dolphins’ secondary looks like a well above average group, with their only real concern being their lack of depth at safety, behind a couple players who could be one of the top safety duos in the league when healthy, but who also have consistently missed time with injury in recent years.

Grade: A-

Conclusion

The Dolphins’ championship window is narrowing as it becomes increasingly harder for them to fit all of their talent under the cap, but this team was better than their 11-6 record last season in terms of DVOA, even with all of the injuries they had down the stretch last season, and, while they lost some talented players this off-season, they overall did a pretty good job of replacing them with cheaper alternatives. They’ll still probably need quarterback Tua Tagovailoa to take a step forward to be considered true contenders, especially in the loaded AFC, but Tagovailoa is young enough that that’s a possibility. Ultimately, I still have them outside of the top teams in the AFC, but this is still a talented team overall.

Prediction: 11-6, 2nd in AFC East

Quarterback

No team has a wider range of outcomes at the quarterback position than Tua Tagovailoa and the Miami Dolphins. Tagovailoa came into the league with a lot of upside as the 6th overall pick in the 2020 NFL Draft, but he was pretty underwhelming across his first two seasons in the league, completing 66.2% of his passes for an average of 6.59 YPA, 27 touchdowns, and 15 interceptions (88.8 QB rating) in 21 starts, receiving season-long grades of 65.4 and 68.3 from PFF, and on multiple occasions getting injured or getting benched for a veteran mid-game.

However, going into his third season in the league in 2022, Tagovailoa got a much needed change of coaching on offense, with former 49ers offensive coordinator Mike McDaniel becoming the new head coach and implementing a Shanahan style scheme, and he got much needed improvements in his supporting cast, which led to Tagovailoa being one of the best quarterbacks in the league to start last season. Through week 12, Tagovailoa completed 69.7% of his passes for an average of 9.03 YPA, 19 touchdowns, and 3 interceptions (115.7 QB rating) and he had a 91.1 PFF grade, while winning all eight games in which he started and finished, with another two and a half games lost to injury. 

Unfortunately, that’s where Tagovailoa’s story takes another turn as, after that hot start, he cooled down very quickly, completing just 52.6% of his passes for an average of 8.48 YPA, 6 touchdowns, and 5 interceptions (80.5 QB rating) with a 52.1 PFF grade in his final 4 starts, all of which were losses. Making matters worse, Tagovailoa suffered his third concussion of the season in week 16, which not only ended his year for good after costing him some time earlier in the season, but also puts his long-term future in doubt, as another significant concussion could be career-threatening or career-ending. 

Heading into the off-season, a key one in which the Dolphins had to make a decision on guaranteeing Tagovailoa’s 23.171 million dollar option for 2024, it was tough to know what to make of Tagovailoa’s long-term projection, as he produced at an MVP level for the first half of last season, but has otherwise been mediocre as a starter and his high level of production last season might have been more because of the system and talent around him, rather than him legitimately playing like an elite quarterback, and now with that the league has caught on to the Dolphins’ scheme a little bit, Tagovailoa may continue to struggle. On top of that, there is also the long-term injury risk. 

The Dolphins picked up the option, unwilling to effectively give up on Tagovailoa by declining it, but they haven’t committed to a long-term extension with him yet, with Tagovailoa set to hit free agency after 2024. Tagovailoa legitimately has the potential to be among the top quarterbacks and MVP candidates this season if he can stay healthy and play up to his potential, but he also just as easily could get hurt, and, even if he manages to stay healthy, he could continue to struggle like he did in the second half of last season and for much of the first two seasons of his career. 

The Dolphins have continued to aggressively build this roster this off-season, ranking 8th in average annual value of the contracts on their roster, a stat that correlates heavily with winning, so if Tagovailoa plays close to the high end of his range of projections, the Dolphins are a legitimate Super Bowl contender, and if he struggles or gets hurt, he would be holding a talented team back from reaching its goals. The uncertainty at this position makes the Dolphins a tough team to project this season, but their upside is as high as any team in the league.

With Tagovailoa’s performance and durability being question marks, the backup quarterback position takes on more importance. Last season, reserves Teddy Bridgewater and Skylar Thompson threw 184 passes and made four starts, completing 59.2% of those passes for 6.61 YPA, 5 touchdowns, and 7 interceptions (72.2 QB rating), which isn’t horrible production, but they were aided by the scheme and talent around them and the Dolphins went just 1-4 in the five games in which Bridgewater and/or Thompson played all or most of the game, as opposed to 8-4 in games in which Tagovailoa played most of the game. 

The Dolphins let Bridgewater walk this off-season and, unwilling to commit to 2022 7th round pick Skylar Thompson as the primary backup, they replaced Bridgewater with another veteran, former Jets quarterback Mike White, who gets paid towards the higher end of the price range for backup quarterbacks on a 2-year, 8 million dollar deal. White was a 5th round pick in 2018 by the Cowboys, but never threw a regular season pass until 2021 with the Jets, with whom he made seven starts over the past two seasons and completed 62.2% of his passes for an average of 6.99 YPA, 8 touchdowns, and 12 interceptions (75.4 QB rating). He’s a solid backup and the Dolphins are talented enough around him that they could survive him starting for an extended period of time, but they will need Tagovailoa to stay relatively healthy and play at close to his highest level for this team to legitimately compete at the highest level. It’s one of the most unpredictable situations in the NFL.

Grade: B

Receiving Corps

The biggest thing the Dolphins did to upgrade their supporting cast last off-season was acquiring Tyreek Hill from the Kansas City Chiefs. Hill came at a steep price, costing the Dolphins a first and second round pick, as well as an extension that would set Hill up to make 95.865 million over the next four seasons, but, along with Jaylen Waddle, who the Dolphins added the off-season before with the 6th pick in the 2021 NFL Draft, the Dolphins had the best wide receiver duo in the league last season. Hill and Waddle were just one of five wide receiver duos to both surpass 1000 yards receiving last season and they were the only duo to both surpass 1200 yards receiving, doing so by a pretty wide margin, taking 170 targets and 117 targets respectively for slash lines of 119/1710/7 and 75/1356/8 respectively, ranking them second and seventh respectively in the NFL in terms of receiving yardage.

Those slash lines and target totals come out to an average completion percentage of 67.6%, an average of 10.7 yards per target, and 15 touchdowns to 8 interceptions when targeted, good for a QB rating of 108.7 when targeted, almost 14 points above their team average. They accounted for 51.1% of their team’s targets and a whopping 64.3% of their team’s receiving yardage. In terms of yards per route run, Hill and Waddle ranked 1st and 3rd respectively among wide receivers at 3.20 and 2.59, and in PFF grade they ranked 1st and 10th respectively at 92.1 and 83.9. For both players, it was a career best year in terms of receiving yards, but there is reason to believe they can at least come close to repeating last year’s performance again in 2023. 

Hill is still in his prime in his age 29 season and had averaged a 95/1368/11 slash line per 17 games in his five seasons in Kansas City prior to joining the Dolphins last off-season, exceeding 80 on PFF in all five seasons, while Waddle is still only going into his third season in the league and has shown the potential to be one of the best wide receivers in the league even dating back to his rookie season, when his 78.3 PFF grade, 104/1015/6 slash line, and 1.75 yards per route run average were all impressive for a rookie who was playing on an overall underwhelming offense. 

Waddle and Hill are both among the best wide receivers in the league and, even if they aren’t quite as good as a year ago, they still have a good chance to remain the best wide receiver duo in the NFL, as the gap between them and the rest of the league was pretty big last season. With Hill and Waddle as their top-two, there wasn’t much need for other targets in this passing game, but the Dolphins did have an underwhelming receiving corps behind them last season, which would have been a problem had either one of Hill or Waddle suffered a significant injury, and their depth doesn’t seem much better this season, so that remains a concern.

Trent Sherfield and Mike Gesicki averaged just 1.04 yards per route and 1.02 yards per route run as the #3 wide receiver and top receiving tight end respectively last season and are no longer with the team. Slot specialist Braxton Berrios was signed to replace Sherfield and the Dolphins took a flier on veteran Robbie Anderson as well, while Cedrick Wilson, who they signed to a 3-year, 22.05 million dollar deal last off-season, could have a better year in year two with the Dolphins, after falling down the depth chart and playing just 237 snaps last season. 

Berrios averaged just 0.81 yards per route run last season, but that was on a horrendous Jets passing game and he had averaged 1.84 yards per route run as a slot specialist across his three prior seasons, so he has some bounce back potential, only in his age 28 season. Wilson does as well, as he is also in his age 28 season and averaged 1.56 yards per route run in four seasons with the Cowboys, prior to joining the Dolphins and averaging just 0.99 yards per route run last season. He was mostly a rotational player and spot starter in Dallas, so he’s not a proven starter, but the Dolphins don’t really need much more than that from him. 

Anderson also could have some bounce back potential, but he’s going into his age 30 season and you have to go back to 2020 for his last good season, as his average has dropped from 1.66 yards per route run over his first five seasons in the league to 0.84 over the past two seasons. The Dolphins don’t have bad reserve options behind Waddle and Hill, but they’re an underwhelming bunch, so the Dolphins will obviously need Waddle and Hill to continue staying healthy and being the focal point of this offense.

At tight end, the Dolphins didn’t really replace Gesicki and figure to just de-emphasize the tight end position even more in this offense, after targeting the position just 72 times last season (12.3% of their pass attempts), even with Gesicki being a proven receiver who was coming off back-to-back seasons of 700+ receiving yards. Durham Smythe, who played 557 snaps last season as mostly a blocker (0.81 yards per route run, 15/129/1 slash line), will probably play a bigger role this season, but probably still won’t see much of an uptick in receiving production, with a career 1.04 yards per route run average in five seasons since being selected in the 4th round by the Dolphins in 2018. 

The Dolphins also signed veterans Eric Saubert and Tyler Kroft this off-season, but they are just blocking specialists (0.71 yards per route run and 0.95 yards per route run in their careers) and played 395 snaps and 238 snaps respectively last season, so neither figures to contribute much in the passing game either. This offense will continue to run through Waddle and Hill, who are the best wide receiver duo in the league and obviously elevate this group by a massive amount, but will need to both stay healthy for this offense to have a chance to be a top level unit.

Grade: A

Offensive Line

Another big way in which the Dolphins supporting cast was better in 2022 than 2021 was on the offensive line, which was previously a weakness for years. The single biggest difference was the addition of former Saints left tackle Terron Armstead on a 5-year, 75 million dollar deal in free agency. It was a risky contract to give Armstead, as he was on the wrong side of 30 and had an alarming injury history, missing at least one game in all nine seasons in New Orleans, with 48 games missed total. 

However, Armstead also finished above 70 on PFF in eight of those nine seasons, with five seasons over 80, and his high level play continued into his first season in Miami, as he finished with a 77.5 PFF grade. Armstead still missed another four games with injury and now heads into his age 32 season, so he figures to miss more time at some point this season and could easily decline in a noticeable way, but he still has a good chance to be an above average starter even if he’s not at his best and, as long as he plays close to the full season, he should be an asset to this offensive line again, even if it’s not to the extent he was last season.

The Dolphins also signed former Cowboys center Connor Williams to a 2-year, 14.035 million dollar deal last off-season and that paid off in a big way as he made 17 starts and received a 78.4 grade from PFF. It was a career best year for Williams, but it didn’t come out of nowhere, as the 2018 2nd round pick also received a 71.2 PFF grade in 16 starts in 2020 and a 76.1 grade in 14 starts in 2021. In those two seasons he primarily played left guard and his versatility just makes him even more valuable to this offensive line. Still going into his age 26 season, I would expect Williams to continue playing around the same level and it wouldn’t be a surprise at all if he matched or even slightly exceeded his career best performance from 2022.

Another free agent addition that ended up being important was right tackle Brandon Shell, even though he didn’t even come to the Dolphins until he was signed off the practice squad early in the season, when incumbent right tackle Austin Jackson got injured. Shell made his first start in week 6 and finished the season with a 64.9 grade in 12 starts. That’s unspectacular, but the Dolphins had gotten poor play at right tackle for years prior to last season and at first it looked like last season would be more of the same, with Jackson and his initial replacement Greg Little both struggling, finishing the season with PFF grades of 57.9 and 34.6 respectively. 

Shell wasn’t retained this off-season and Jackson looks like the favorite to get his job back, which is a concern, as Jackson has struggled throughout his career, receiving PFF grades of 52.5 and 49.9 in his first two seasons in the league prior to last season, in a total of 28 starts, but Jackson is a former first round pick who is only going into his age 24 season, so he could take a step forward and be more of a capable starter in year four and, if not, the Dolphins do have other options, signing veterans Isaiah Wynn and Cedric Ogbuehi in free agency this off-season. Wynn seems like their best option at the position. He had a just 54.6 PFF grade in seven starts with the Patriots in 2022, but he was a first round pick in 2018 and he was a lot better with grades of 69.9, 82.6, and 74.9 in 2019, 2020, and 2021. 

Injuries have always been a problem for Wynn, costing him 39 games in five seasons in the league, and they may have sapped his abilities a little bit, leading to him having a down year in his contract year last season, which limited him to 2.3 million on a 1-year deal in free agency from Miami, a steep decrease from the 10.413 million he made on the 5th year option of his first round rookie deal last season, but Wynn does have some bounce back potential if he can stay healthy, only in his age 27 season, and he could prove to be a worthwhile flier on a cheap one-year deal. 

Wynn also gives the Dolphins versatility with his ability to play guard, so, even if he’s just a reserve to start the season, he could prove to be valuable for the Dolphins one way or another.

Ogbuehi is also a former first round pick, but he’s mostly been a middling reserve in his career, with just 35 career starts since being selected in the first round in 2015, with just 10 of those coming in the past five seasons, and now he heads into his age 31 season, so he’s not as intriguing of an option as Wynn and might not even be a guarantee to make the final roster.

Another reason for this offensive line’s improvement last season was right guard Robert Hunt having the best year of his career, finishing with a 73.7 PFF grade in 17 starts. That didn’t come out of nowhere for Hunt either, as he was a 2nd round pick in 2020 and received grades of 66.0 and 67.4 from PFF in his first two seasons in the league, across a total of 28 starts. Still only in his age 27 season, it wouldn’t be a surprise if he repeated his career best 2022 season again in 2023.

Left guard was a weakness for a lot of last season, with second year player Liam Eichenberg making 10 starts and finishing with a horrendous 39.8 PFF grade, but he was replaced in the lineup by 2021 undrafted free agent Robert Jones when Eichenberg was hurt and Jones proved to be an upgrade, receiving a 62.0 grade in 7 starts. Jones is still pretty unproven as a former undrafted free agent who only played 79 snaps in his rookie season prior to his extended stint as a spot starter last year, but it wouldn’t surprise me if he continued to keep the starting job, even if he’s an underwhelming option.

Eichenberg probably has a higher upside, as a 2nd round pick in 2021, but he struggled in 16 starts as a rookie as well and he has a long way to go to even be a middling starter. Right tackle and left guard are questionable positions and left tackle Terron Armstead is an aging injury risk, but Armstead, Robert Hunt, and Connor Williams give the Dolphins a trio of high level starters when they’re healthy and the Dolphins don’t have bad depth on the offensive line either.

Grade: B+

Running Backs

The Dolphins didn’t make any splash additions at the running back position last off-season, but they did get a good year out of free agent signing Raheem Mostert, who rushed for 891 yards and 3 touchdowns on 181 carries, giving him 4.92 YPC and a 55% carry success rate that was 9th best among eligible running backs. That’s nothing new for Mostert, who has a career 5.38 YPC average, mostly in the Shanahan style offense that the Dolphins run. What was new was him staying healthy for most of the season, playing in 16 of 17 games, after missing 36 of a possible 81 in the previous five seasons, with his career high carries in a season being 137 and just 465 total carries in eight seasons in the league. 

Mostert now heads into his age 31 season and could decline and/or get injured, but he’s not the only former 49ers running back the Dolphins added last season, trading for Jeff Wilson mid-season and giving him 84 carries in the final 8 games of the season, which he took for 4.67 YPC and 3 touchdowns, while finishing the season 20th in carry success rate out of 42 eligible running backs at 51%. Wilson’s addition was especially big for this offense because it coincided with the Dolphins trading away Chase Edmonds, who was a poor fit in this offense and averaged just 2.86 YPC on 42 carries in eight games. 

Wilson’s performance last season was also nothing new for him, as he has averaged 4.48 YPC on 474 carries in five seasons in the league, but he’s also an injury concern, as last season he set career highs with 16 games played and 176 carries in a season, with his previous highs being 12 games played and 126 carries. After Wilson joined the Dolphins, he and Mostert had a 84/80 carry split in the final eight games of the season, helping keeping each other fresh, and the Dolphins added further depth to this backfield when they added Texas A&M’s De’Von Achane in the third round of the draft. He might not start as a rookie, but figures to have at least a rotational role with Mostert and Wilson and, given the injury history of those two, Achane starting at some point next season is definitely a possibility. 

The Dolphins don’t throw to running backs that much, with their passing game heavily focused around Tyreek Hill and Jaylen Waddle, but Raheem Mostert did see 42 targets as the primary passing down back. He wasn’t very efficient with those targets though, taking them for a 31/202/2 slash line (4.81 yards per target) and averaging just 0.69 yards per route run, but he has a 1.25 yards per route run average in his career aside from last season and his poor yards per route run average last season was in part due to the Dolphins not using their running backs in the passing game much.

Wilson also didn’t do much in the passing game last season, taking 24 targets for just 12 catches for 94 yards (3.92 yards per target) and a touchdown in 8 games, while averaging 0.73 yards per route run, but that’s nothing new for him, as he’s averaged just 0.83 yards per route run in his career. Wilson figures to see a pretty minimal passing game role again in 2023, with Mostert as the primary passing down back again and Achane also having pass catching upside, after catching 60 passes across his final two seasons in college. The Dolphins also still have Salvon Ahmed and Myles Gaskin on this roster and, at times, they have been lead backs for this team in the past, but they’re both very underwhelming options who are not guaranteed to make the final roster, after 2022 campaigns in which they saw just 13 and 14 touches respectively. 

Ahmed has been in the league for three seasons, but the former undrafted free agent has averaged just 3.77 yards per carry and 1.02 yards per route run, while seeing just 165 total touches in his career, while Gaskin is somewhat more experienced with 462 career touches and he has a career 1.20 yards per route run average, but he also has just a 3.75 yards per carry average in four seasons since being selected in the 7th round in 2019. They’re not roster locks in a backfield that is much deeper than it has been in recent years, even if it lacks a true lead back or a good passing down option.

Grade: B-

Edge Defenders

As they have done with their supporting cast on offense, the Dolphins have been aggressive adding talent on defense in recent years. During last season, they traded away a first round pick to the Denver Broncos for Bradley Chubb, who had an expiring contract and received a 5-year, 110 million dollar extension from the Dolphins upon arriving in Miami, making him the 6th highest paid edge defender in the league in average annual salary. 

In his first half season with the team, Chubb wasn’t really worth what the Dolphins gave up for him in terms of financial resources and draft capital, as his pass rush numbers were middling (2.5 sacks, 8 hits, and a 11.2% pressure rate) and his run defense was subpar. Chubb was the 5th overall pick in the 2018 NFL Draft and has shown stretches of being a high level pass rusher, but he has missed 25 of a possible 82 games in five seasons in the league, his total pass rush numbers are good, but not what you would expect from a high level edge defender (28.5 sacks, 42 hits, and a 11.7% pressure rate in 57 games), and his run defense has consistently been a problem, limiting him to a career high season-long grade from PFF of just 70.7 overall. 

However, even if the Dolphins probably did overpay, Chubb should be an asset for this team and I would expect his performance in his second season in Miami to be better than his underwhelming first half season with the team. Chubb didn’t get to play much with Emmanuel Ogbah, who was the Dolphins’ sacks leader in 2021 with nine, but who was limited to just 326 snaps in nine games by injury in 2022, overlapping with Chubb for just two games. Ogbah also struggled even when on the field in 2022, finishing the season with a 52.1 PFF grade, with just 1 sack, 6 hits, and a 6.7% pressure rate as a pass rusher. 

That performance last season is a concern with Ogbah now heading into his age 30 season, but, even if his best days are behind him, Ogbah isn’t totally over the hill yet and could at least bounce back somewhat from last year’s down year, after totaling 23.5 sacks, 32 hits, and a 11.9% pressure rate in 43 games in his previous three seasons prior to last season, with a PFF grade over 65 in all three seasons, including a career best 77.0 as recently as 2021. Ogbah and Chubb should both give the Dolphins more than they did a year ago, even if they’re not at their best.

Even if Chubb and Ogbah give them more than a year ago, the Dolphins best edge defender should still be Jaelan Phillips, who played 838 snaps and finished with a 87.7 PFF grade a year ago. Phillips was the 18th pick in the 2022 NFL Draft and had 8.5 sacks as a rookie, but his peripheral pass rush stats were underwhelming, with 8 hits and a 9.7% pressure rate, while his run defense was horrendous, leading to Phillips finishing below average with an overall 53.7 grade from PFF. 

In 2022, Phillips’ sack total was actually slightly less (7), but his peripheral pass rush stats were a lot better, adding 19 sacks and a 14.6% pressure rate, while drastically improving against the run, leading to his overall high grade, finishing 6th among edge defenders in PFF grade. Phillips is a one-year wonder in terms of playing at the level he played at last season and might not play quite as well in 2023, but, even if he regresses a little bit, he should remain a well above average overall player and he has the upside to continue being one of the top players at his league for years to come, even if he’s not quite as good as he was a year ago.

The Dolphins also have Andrew Van Ginkel, who played 333 snaps a year ago, and free agent acquisition Malik Reed as reserve options. Both are primarily base package players who are better against the run than they are as pass rushers. Van Ginkel is a good all-around reserve though, with a career 11.1% pressure rate and three straight seasons above 70 on PFF, doing so despite playing bigger snap counts (479 snaps and 801 snaps) in the previous two seasons prior to 2022. Reed, meanwhile, has exceeded 65 in run defense in three of four seasons in the league, on an average of 597 total snaps per season, but he has just a 7.2% career pressure rate. Van Ginkel and Reed provide even more depth at a very deep position group, led by a trio of players who could all be above average edge rushers this season.

Grade: A

Interior Defenders

The Dolphins don’t have the same kind of depth at the interior defender position as they do on the edge, but they can use their depth on the edge to offset their lack of depth on the interior somewhat, lining up an edge defender on the interior in sub packages as a pass rush specialist somewhat regularly, and the Dolphins at least have a high level every down starting duo at the interior defender position, with Christian Wilkins and Zach Sieler coming off seasons in which they finished with PFF grades of 85.1 and 74.7 respectively and saw snap counts of 952 snaps and 847 snaps respectively.

Both players have performed at that level before. Wilkins was a first round pick in 2019 who broke out with a 83.8 PFF grade on 734 snaps in 2021, after PFF grades of 64.4 and 68.9 on snap counts of 730 and 637 in his first two seasons in the league, while Sieler was only a 7th round choice in 2018, but received 76.2, 69.3, and 84.9 grades from PFF on snap counts of 118, 532, and 518 in the three seasons prior to last season in the 2019-2021 seasons respectively. With both going into their age 28 seasons, I would expect more of the same. Both are at their best against the run, but they also added 7 sacks, 13 hits, and a 5.5% pressure rate between the two of them last season, so they were pretty well-rounded players.

Raekwon Davis was their top interior defender aside from Wilkins and Sieler in 2022 and he struggled mightily with a 43.4 PFF grade on 583 snaps. Davis was a second round pick in 2020, but also struggled mightily with a 36.5 PFF grade on 424 snaps in an injury plagued 2021 season as well, prior to struggling last season. He was a solid run defender as a rookie, but his run defense has dropped off significantly in the past two seasons and he’s never been much of a pass rusher, with a 4.3% pressure rate for his career. Davis is still young, in his age 26 season, and could still have bounce back potential, but his best case scenario most likely is being just a decent base package run defender and he could easily continue struggling.

Davis will have to be their primary reserve though, because the Dolphins simply lack another good option at the position. Aside from Wilkins, Sieler, and Davis, the Dolphins also have 2021 6th round pick Jaylen Twyman, who has never played a defensive snap, 2021 undrafted free agent Josiah Bronson, who has played 168 mediocre snaps in his career, as well as a trio of undrafted rookies, none of whom are locks to make this final roster. This is a very thin group behind Wilkins and Sieler, but Wilkins and Sieler are at least an above average every down starting duo and the Dolphins could somewhat mask their lack of depth on the interior with their depth on the edge.

Grade: B+

Linebackers

The Dolphins didn’t add as much to this defense this off-season as they have in previous recent off-seasons, but they did make a couple key moves, one of which being the addition of linebacker David Long from the Titans on a 2-year, 11 million dollar deal. Long has received grades of 67.4 and 76.2 from PFF over the past two seasons as an every down player, averaging 62.5 snaps played per game, and he is still only going into his age 27 season, but durability is a concern, as he’s missed 12 games total over the past two seasons and has missed at least one game in all four seasons in the league, since being selected in the 6th round by the Titans in 2019. 

When he’s on the field, Long should be an upgrade on incumbent Elandon Roberts, who received a 57.1 PFF grade last season, and he should play more of an every down role too, with Roberts playing just 39.8 snaps per game in 17 games last season, but Long is much more of an injury risk and is likely to miss at least some time with injury again. Duke Riley played 364 snaps as the top reserve a year ago and, while he probably won’t have much of a role as long as Long is healthy, he could easily find himself having to make start in Long’s absence, assuming Riley can beat out 2022 3rd round pick Channing Tindall for the top reserve role, not a guarantee even though Tindall played just 10 snaps as a rookie, as Tindall still does have a significant upside long-term. Riley, meanwhile, finished last season with a 59.1 PFF grade and has been below 60 in four of six seasons in the league, so there’s room for improvement on him, even as a reserve.

Jerome Baker, meanwhile, will remain the other every down linebacker next to David Long and he should be a more reliable option in terms of durability, playing 81 of a possible 82 games in five seasons in the league, while averaging 60.4 snaps per game over the past four seasons. The problem with Baker is he has been pretty inconsistent in his career. He finished last season with a 78.0 PFF grade on 1,010 snaps and he has another season with a PFF grade of 70+ on his resume, but it was only a 70.7 PFF grade and it came back in his rookie season in 2018, while his other three season-long grades were 46.7, 55.2, and 60.9. 

Baker is still young and in his prime, only in his age 27 season, but it’s hard to imagine him being consistent enough to repeat the best year of his career again in 2023 and there’s a good chance he declines significantly from a year ago. Fortunately, the addition of David Long should offset Baker’s likely decline, at least somewhat, and Baker and Long are still a solid starting duo, with decent depth behind them, so this is a pretty solid position group, even if Baker doesn’t end up being as good as a year ago.

Grade: B+

Secondary

The biggest addition the Dolphins made this off-season was trading a third round pick and backup tight end Hunter Long to the Rams for Jalen Ramsey, who they signed to a new 3-year, 55 million dollar deal upon arrival. The 5th overall pick in the 2016 NFL Draft, Ramsey has been one of the top cornerbacks in the league since being drafted, starting 107 of 108 games played in seven seasons in the league (114 total possible games) and surpassing 70 on PFF in all six seasons, with three seasons over 80, including grades of 84.5 and 86.4 over the past two seasons. 

The Rams were in cap hell and lacking draft capital, so they decided to move Ramsey, but he is still only in his age 29 season and could remain a top level cornerback for at least another season or two before he starts declining. His addition should be a big boost for a secondary that had just one cornerback play more than 300 snaps and finish above 60 on PFF in 2022, with no cornerbacks above 70. The Dolphins should also get a better year out of their other starting outside cornerback Xavien Howard, who had finished above 70 on PFF in three of the previous four seasons prior to falling to 58.4 in 2022. 

Howard now heads into his age 30 season, which is a concern, but his struggles last season were mostly due to an injury that he played through and, even if his best days are behind him, he still has a lot of bounce back potential as, even at less than his best, he could easily be an above average cornerback. I would expect more from Howard in 2023, assuming he’s healthier, which is not a guarantee, as he’s missed 27 games in seven seasons in the league. Even with Howard’s durability concerns though, with Ramsey coming in, the Dolphins have a good chance to have a pair of above average outside cornerbacks, at a position that was kind of a weakness a year ago.

The Dolphins best cornerback a year ago in terms of PFF grade was actually undrafted rookie Kader Kohou, who played 895 snaps and posted a 69.8 grade. That could prove to be a fluke and Kohou might not be as good again, as he hasn’t shown enough yet to ignore the fact that the whole league, including the Dolphins, let him go undrafted a year ago, but he’s at least earned the chance to keep the #3 cornerback job and could remain a solid player in that role.

The Dolphins also have good alternatives in case Kohou slips up in his second season in the league, using a 2nd round pick on South Carolina’s Cam Smith and also retaining veteran free agent Nik Needham, who was limited to 294 snaps in six games by injury last season, but who has generally been a middling player on an average of 566 snaps per season in four seasons in the league, with 27 starts in 51 career games played. The Dolphins are pretty deep at the cornerback position and their top-3 have a high upside, even if there’s risk of downside if Howard gets hurt or continues to decline or if Kohou proves his rookie year to be sort of a fluke.

The Dolphins didn’t make any big additions at the safety position, but they will get starting safety Brandon Jones back from an injury that limited him to 347 snaps in seven games last season. Jones only had a 61.1 PFF grade overall and was much better as a run defender (73.3) and blitzer (65.2) than he was in coverage (52.4), which is par for the course from the 2020 3rd round pick, who received grades of 60.8 and 53.4 from PFF on snap counts of 385 and 644 in his first two seasons in the league prior to last season, while finishing below 60 on pass coverage grade in all three seasons in the league. However, he was still missed when he was hurt, as backup Eric Rowe had a 57.3 grade on 567 snaps and didn’t excel in any aspects of the game.

This season, Jones should get his starting job back, but the Dolphins did add better insurance behind him, replacing Rowe with free agent DeShon Elliott. Elliott can be a capable starter if the Dolphins need him to, receiving grades of 66.6, 65.6, and 66.5 over the past three seasons as a starter, but he comes with his own durability concerns, missing 14 of a possible 50 games over those three seasons. Perhaps moving him to a reserve role will make it easier for him to stay healthy and he is good insurance to have if needed, given his history of being a capable starter.

Jevon Holland remains as the other starting safety opposite Jones. He had a solid 65.5 grade in 17 starts last season, but that was actually a down year for him, as the 2021 2nd round pick burst onto the scene with a 84.7 PFF grade in 13 starts as a rookie. Still only going into his age 23 season, Holland has plenty of bounce back potential in his third season in the league and he could easily still develop into one of the consistently best safeties in the league for years to come. I would expect a better year from him in 2023. WIth Holland and Howard likely to bounce back and Ramsey being added, this secondary is much improved from a year ago.

Grade: A-

Conclusion

On defense, the Dolphins finished last season 15th in DVOA and they should be better this year, probably noticeably, with likely bounce back years coming from Xavien Howard and Jevon Holland, the addition of Jalen Ramsey, and Emmanuel Ogbah and Bradley Chubb likely to give them more than a year ago. The Dolphins also have a strong supporting cast on offense and have the potential to get high level play from quarterback Tua Tagovailoa, which would make this team among the favorites in the NFL. 

Unfortunately, Tagovailoa comes with a history of injury and inconsistency, so the Dolphins are not necessarily likely to get the best case scenario out of Tagovailoa, and not getting a high level season out of Tagovailoa would hurt their chances of being high level contenders. As long as Tagovailoa doesn’t miss the whole season or drop off completely, this should at least be a playoff team, even in the loaded AFC, with the upside for more and they are among the most intriguing sleepers in the league, but they come with some downside as well. I will have a final prediction at the end of the off-season when all previews are completed.

Prediction: 10-7, 2nd in AFC East