Eagles

Philadelphia Eagles at Washington Commanders: 2025 Week 16 NFL Pick

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Philadelphia Eagles (9-5) at Washington Commanders (4-10)

The Eagles don’t have a lot of blowout victories this season, with just two of their nine wins coming by more than seven points, which is relevant, considering this line favors the Eagles by seven. Those two wins by seven points came against the Giants and Raiders, who are among the worst teams in the league. The Commanders have played three games against the Giants and Raiders this season and are 3-0 in those three games, even with backup quarterback Marcus Mariota starting two of those three games. That suggests that, even with Mariota remaining under center, the Commanders are on a different level than the only two teams the Eagles have beaten by more than seven points this season. The Eagles’ two wins by more than seven points also came at home, while this game is in Washington. 

All of that suggests that we are getting some line value with the Commanders as 7-point home underdogs. Unfortunately, I don’t think it is enough for the Commanders to be worth betting, given that they will be playing without talented left tackle Laremy Tunsil in this game for the first time all season, which figures to be a massive loss for this offense. The Commanders are still my pick for pick ‘em purposes, but this is only a low confidence pick.

Philadelphia Eagles 24 Washington Commanders 19

Pick against the spread: Washington +7

Confidence: Low

Chicago Bears at Philadelphia Eagles: 2025 Week 13 NFL Pick

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Chicago Bears (8-3) at Philadelphia Eagles (8-3)

This is probably the most confusing line of the week. In other cases when my calculated line is very different from the actual line, I can understand why, but in this case I genuinely don’t understand it. The Eagles have just one win by more than a touchdown this season and it came against a 2-win Giants team. Despite that, the Eagles are favored by a touchdown in this game against the 8-3 Bears. 

The Bears are not as good as their record, going 6-1 in one-score games, but the same can be said of the Eagles. The Bears rank 24th in first down rate differential (-1.92%) and 20th in yards per play differential (-0.36), but the Eagles rank just 19th (-1.24%) and 16th (-0.20) respectively in those two metrics. The Eagles have had the harder schedule, but are only about a point better than the Bears in my schedule adjusted efficiency.

My roster rankings also only have these two teams about a point apart. The Eagles are better since getting Nolan Smith back from injury and since adding Jaelen Phillips via trade, but the Bears seem likely to get their top cornerbacks Jaylon Johnson and Kyler Gordon back from injury. Even if they don’t, the Bears are still worth a big bet at +7 since this figures to be yet another close game for two teams that have played a lot of close games.

Philadelphia Eagles 23 Chicago Bears 20

Pick against the spread: Chicago +7

Confidence: High

Philadelphia Eagles at New York Giants: 2025 Week 6 NFL Pick

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Philadelphia Eagles (4-1) at New York Giants (1-4)

The Eagles are a tough team to be confident in either way. They are defending Super Bowl Champions and they are 4-1 despite one of the toughest schedules in the league, but they haven’t looked particularly good in any of their games. All five of their games have been decided by seven points or fewer and they rank 24th in first down rate differential (-2.01%) and 28th in yards per play differential (-0.92). Even with their tough schedule factored in, they still rank just 24th in schedule adjusted efficiency.

However, my roster rankings suggest they should be a lot better than that (6th) and it’s worth noting that by far their easiest game of the season, even on the road, so it wouldn’t be surprising if this is when they end up breaking out, as the Giants are just 1-4 and rank 25th in schedule adjusted efficiency and in 26th my roster rankings. However, with this line favoring the Eagles by a full touchdown, we’re not getting any value with them and it’s tough to know what to expect from them, given the mismatch between their talent level and their statistical output, so this is a no confidence pick.

Update: The final inactive list is not good for the Eagles. Jalen Carter is out, while Jermaine Eluemunor is in, after both were listed as questionable. Despite this, this line is still at 7.5 in some places. I would rather pick the Giants +7.5 than Eagles -7, but it’s a no confidence pick either way.

Philadelphia Eagles 24 New York Giants 17

Pick against the spread: NY Giants +7.5

Confidence: None

Dallas Cowboys at Philadelphia Eagles: 2025 Week 1 NFL Pick

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Dallas Cowboys (0-0) at Philadelphia Eagles (0-0)

The Eagles are defending Super Bowl Champions at home in the first game of the season, which tends to be a good spot for teams, going 13-6-1 ATS since 2005. Unfortunately, we have lost significant line value in the last week, with this line moving from Philadelphia -6.5 to -7.5 in the wake of the Micah Parsons trade. Losing Parsons will be a huge loss for the Cowboys, but he was unlikely to play a significant snap count in this game and might not have played at all after a monthlong holdout, so that line movement, crossing over a key number of 7, seems like an overreaction.

As much as Parsons being traded is a big deal, the Eagles lost a lot this off-season as well and are unlikely to be as good as they were down the stretch last season as a result, particularly on defense, where five of the eleven players who played at least 500 snaps for them are no longer with the team, after being a league best unit in 2024. I am still taking the Eagles for pick ‘em purposes, but I can’t bet them confidently as long as the line is a touchdown or more.

Philadelphia Eagles 27 Dallas Cowboys 17

Pick against the spread: Philadelphia -7.5

Confidence: Low

Philadelphia Eagles 2025 NFL Season Preview

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Quarterback

In 2022, the Eagles went 14-3 and made the Super Bowl, narrowly losing to the Chiefs. In 2024, the Eagles went 14-3 and won the Super Bowl, blowing out the Chiefs. In between in 2023, the Eagles went 11-6 and lost in the first round of the post-season. The biggest reason for their down year in 2023 was their defense. While their offense went from 3rd in first down rate and 6th in yards per play in 2022 to 6th in first down rate and 13th in yards per play in 2023 to 14th in first down rate and 11th in yards per play in 2024, their defense went from 10th in first down rate allowed and 1st in yards per play allowed in 2022 to 28th in first down rate allowed and 25th in yards per play allowed in 2023 to 1st in first down rate allowed and 1st in yards per play allowed in 2024. 

The Eagles have had some personnel changes over the years but the biggest difference between their 2023 defense and their 2022 and 2024 defense was coaching, as the 2022 Eagles had future Cardinals head coach Jonathan Gannon as defensive coordinator and the 2024 Eagles had the legendary Vic Fangio as defensive coordinator, while the 2023 Eagles had a combination of Sean Desai and Matt Patricia, who were highly ineffective. The Eagles had some personnel losses this off-season, particularly on defense, which I will get into later, but most importantly they kept Vic Fangio for another year and he should continue getting the most of the players he has.

The Eagles do change offensive coordinators this off-season, with Kellen Moore taking the Saints’ head coaching job this off-season, but the Eagles have had a different offensive coordinator in each of the past three seasons, with current Colts head coach Shane Steichen coordinating their offense in 2022 and the since fired Brian Johnson coordinating their offense in 2023, and the changes haven’t really mattered much. To replace Moore, the Eagles promoted Kevin Patullo and he figures to keep things very similar on offense, particularly since they return 10 of 11 starters from a year ago.

The Eagles were a run heavy team last season, ranking 1st in the NFL in rush attempts with 621 and dead last in the NFL in pass attempts with 448, but that doesn’t mean their passing offense wasn’t effective, as they ranked 7th in yards per pass attempt with 7.85. That number probably would have been higher if Jalen Hurts hadn’t missed most of three games with injury, as Hurts finished the season completing 68.7% of his passes for an average of 8.04 YPA, 18 touchdowns, and 5 interceptions, good for a 103.7 QB rating that ranked 5th in the NFL.

Hurts benefits significantly from the talent around him on this offense, but has shown he is capable of winning games himself when needed. Over the past three seasons, Hurts has completed 66.7% of his passes for an average of 7.70 YPA, 63 touchdowns, and 26 interceptions in 47 starts. He has only averaged 28.9 pass attempts per game over that stretch, but is also a huge part of the Eagles’ running game, averaging 10.0 carries per game (472 total carries) over that stretch, taking them for 4.23 YPC and 42 touchdowns, while also making life easier for the Eagles’ running backs, as defenses have to worry about Hurts taking off and running himself. Still only in his age 27 season, I would expect Hurts to continue playing at a similar level in 2025 and beyond.

When Hurts missed time with injury last season, he was replaced by Kenny Pickett (42 pass attempts) and Tanner McKee (45 pass attempts). McKee outplayed Pickett, completing 66.7% of his passes for an average of 7.18 YPA, 4 touchdowns, and 0 interceptions, leading to Pickett being traded to the Browns this off-season. Pickett is the more experienced of the two, as McKee is a 2023 6th round pick who had never played a snap prior to last season, but clearly the Eagles viewed him as having the higher upside long-term. 

The Eagles also added Dorian Thompson-Robinson in the Pickett trade and used a 6th round pick on Kyle McCord, but Thompson-Robinson has a pitiful 45.2 QB rating in five career starts, while McCord is a raw rookie, so McKee should be considered the heavy favorite for the backup job. He’s a projection to a larger role and could struggle if forced into a significant stretch of starts in place of Hurts, who takes more hits than the average quarterback and has only made every start just once in five seasons in the league, but Hurts has also never played fewer than 15 games in a season and, as long as he stays relatively healthy, the Eagles have one of the better quarterback situations in the league.

Grade: A-

Receiving Corps

Jalen Hurts benefited significantly from having a great receiving corps to throw to last season, as his top-2 wide receivers AJ Brown and Devonta Smith, as well as his top tight end Dallas Goedert, all averaged over two yards per route run at 2.99, 2.11, and 2.20 respectively. Brown and Smith ranked 2nd and 23rd among eligible wide receivers in yards per route run, while Goedert ranked 2nd among eligible tight ends. 

Things could be even better in 2025, as Brown, Smith, and Goedert all missed significant time with injury last season, missing four games, four games, and seven games respectively. In the eight games in which all three played, the Eagles went 8-0. In games where AJ Brown played, the Eagles went 16-1. In games where Devonta Smith played, the Eagles went 15-2. In games where Dallas Goedert played, the Eagles went 12-2. All three have some injury history, but none of them have ever missed as many games as they missed last season and all three have a good chance to be healthier in 2025.

Despite missing four games and playing on a run-heavy offense, Brown still had a 67/1079/7 slash line last season, on just 97 targets. Since entering the league in 2019, Brown ranks 4th in the NFL with 7,026 receiving yards, despite always playing on run heavy offenses, averaging 2.64 yards per route run and 10.1 yards per target. He’s not generally mentioned as one of the top wide receivers in the league, but he is and, if he was on teams that passed more, he would be recognized as such. Still in his prime in his age 28 season, I would expect more of the same from him in 2025.

In four seasons in the league, Smith has averaged 1.90 yards per route run and 9.10 yards per target, with a 83/1082/7 slash line per 17 games and is still only going into his age 27 season. If Smith played on a tram that passed more and was the #1 option, he would be even more productive and, on the Eagles, he is an overqualified #2 option on a run heavy team. Goedert, meanwhile, has averaged 1.76 yards per route run and 8.58 yards per target, with a 64/747/4 slash line per 17 games in seven seasons in the league. He’s the most injury prone of the three, missing 23 games in seven seasons in the league and missing time in every season aside from his rookie year, and he’s the oldest of the bunch, going into his age 30 season, but he is still an overqualified 3rd option on a run heavy team. 

Feature back Saquon Barkley is also involved in the passing game, ranking 4th on the team with 43 targets, though he did just take them for a 33/278/2 slash line and 0.93 yards per route run. Barkley was a productive pass catcher earlier in his career, but he has now finished below one yard per route run in each of the past three seasons and that has a good chance to continue in 2025. With Brown, Smith, and Goedert as a high-level top-3 and Barkley also involved, the Eagles have little need for other options in the passing game and, if Brown, Smith, and Goedert stay healthier, they will have even less need for other passing game options in 2025. After Barkley, #3 wide receiver Jahan Dotson, #2 tight end Grant Calcaterra, #2 running back Kenneth Gainwell, and #4 wide receiver Johnny Wilson were the only other pass catchers to have at least 10 targets last season, with target totals of 33, 30, 22, and 15 respectively.

Aside from Gainwell, the rest of the bunch remain on the roster. Dotson will probably be the #3 receiver again and he is a 2022 1st round pick of the Commanders who is still only going into his age 25 season, but he has averaged just 0.89 yards per route run in three seasons in the league, with just 0.53 yards per route run in 2024, and there is no guarantee he is any better in 2025. Johnny Wilson, meanwhile, is a 2024 6th round pick who will likely remain as the #4 receiver, due to the lack of a better option, even after he averaged just 0.24 yards per route run as a rookie. His primary competition for the role is probably Anais Smith, a 2024 5th round pick who played just 96 snaps as a rookie. With a strong off-season, it wouldn’t be a surprise to see Smith move as high up as 3rd on the depth chart, but that is far from a guarantee and, even with a strong off-season, he would be an underwhelming #3 wide receiver.

Calcaterra will face competition for the #2 tight end job from free agent additions Harrison Bryant and Kylen Granson. Both are experienced backup tight ends, playing 435 snaps per season and 390 snaps per season respectively in five seasons in the league and four seasons in the league respectively. Granson has averaged 1.12 yards per route run in his career, as opposed to 1.00 yards per route run for Bryant, but Bryant is the better blocker of the two, which is probably what the Eagles care more about out of a #2 tight end. Calcaterra, meanwhile, is also a capable blocker, who has averaged 1.01 yards per route run, while playing 370 snaps per season in three seasons in the league and he could easily end up keeping his job. This is a highly talented, albeit highly top-heavy receiving corps.

Grade: A-

Running Backs

Feature back Saquon Barkley had a huge statistical season in 2024, becoming the 9th player in NFL history to rush for 2,000+ yards, doing so with 2,005 rushing yards on 345 carries (5.81 YPC), while also rushing for 13 touchdowns. Barkley is obviously a great player, but he wasn’t quite as good as his numbers suggested last season, as he benefited heavily from the talent around him, averaging just 3.17 yards per carry after contact and breaking tackles at a 18.0% rate, which gave him an elusive rating of just 63.7, good for just 22nd running backs and only slightly above his career average of a 51.4 elusive rating.

Barkley will still have a ton of talent around him in 2025, so he has a good chance to continue being heavily productive, but the odds are against him being even close to as productive as he was last season. In NFL history, 32 other running backs have rushed for at least 1,700 yards in a season. Of those 32 running backs, 29 finished with fewer rushing yards the following season and, on average, running backs who rush for 1,700 yards in a season see their rushing total decline by 35.49% and their yards per carry decline by 14.17%. Barkley is still on the short list of running backs who could lead the league in rushing next season, but odds are against him being as good in 2025 as he was in 2024, even with there still being a high level of talent around him.

As I mentioned, #2 running back Kenneth Gainwell is no longer with the team. To replace him, the Eagles signed AJ Dillon, who has only averaged 4.07 YPC on 597 carries in four seasons in the league and who missed all of last season with injury, but he’s been a useful short-yardage back when healthy, as the 6-0 247 pounder has a career 55.6% carry success rate. He also has a decent 1.09 yards per route run average in his career, but the Eagles may prefer 2024 4th round pick Will Shipley as their passing down back. He averaged 1.46 yards per route run as a rookie and, while that came on just 24 routes, he also caught 69 passes in his final two collegiate seasons. Shipley will likely spell Barkley on some passing downs, while Dillon spells him on some early downs and short yardage plays, but Barkley figures to still get the lion’s share of the running back work. Even if he doesn’t have quite as good of a year as he did a year ago, he is still one of the best running backs in the league.

Grade: A

Offensive Line

The one starter on offense the Eagles lost this off-season is right guard Mekhi Becton, who had a 75.3 PFF grade in 15 starts last season. He will either be replaced by Tyler Steen or Matt Pryor, both of whom figure to be a downgrade. Steen was drafted in the 3rd round in 2023 with the intention of him being a starter someday, but he hasn’t shown much through two seasons in the league, with a 53.2 PFF grade across 71 snaps as a rookie and a 40.6 PFF grade across 315 snaps last season. He could take a step forward in his third season in the league in 2025, but that’s far from a guarantee and he will need to take a big step forward to even be a capable starter.

Pryor, meanwhile, is coming off of a season in which he had a 69.9 PFF grade in 15 starts, but he’s a one-year wonder, as he only made 24 starts in his first six seasons in the league prior to last season and now he is going into his age 31 season. It seems unlikely he will repeat the best season of his career again in 2025, especially given his age, but he might be a better option than Steen because he is at least proven as a starter in the NFL. Whoever wins the starting job figures to be a significant downgrade from Becton.

The rest of this offensive line remains the same, which is a good thing because the Eagles ranked 6th in both pass block grade and run block grade on PFF last season. The Eagles did allow 45 sacks, 12th most in the NFL, despite ranking just dead last in pass attempts, giving them the 2nd worst sack rate in the league, but that was primarily because Jalen Hurts led the league in time in the pocket, as he moves around and tries to make plays downfield, which has its upsides, but also its downsides. That figures to continue into 2025, but it’s not a fault of the offensive line.

Left tackle Jordan Mailata was the best of the bunch, finishing as PFF’s #1 ranked offensive tackle with a 95.8 PFF grade. He might not quite repeat his career best year again in 2025, but last year’s dominant campaign didn’t come out of nowhere, as he received PFF grades of 87.4, 76.5, and 84.1 in 2021, 2022, and 2023 respectively, and he’s still in his prime, only going into his age 28 season. Additionally, even if he isn’t quite as good as last season, the Eagles should still benefit from him likely playing more games this season, after missing five games due to injury last season.

Right tackle Lane Johnson is also coming off of a strong season, receiving a 85.4 PFF grade in 15 starts, his 12th season over 70 on PFF in as many seasons in the league and his 8th season over 80, but he’s now heading into his age 35 season. He hasn’t shown any signs of decline yet, but that doesn’t mean he won’t decline in 2025, perhaps significantly, which would have a noticeable effect on this offensive line as a whole. 

At left guard and center, Landon Dickerson and Cam Jurgens return as starters. Both are recent second round picks, Dickerson being selected in 2021 and Jurgens in 2022. Dickerson has improved in every season in the league, going from a 67.2 PFF grade as a rookie to a 67.3 PFF grade in his second season to a 70.0 PFF grade in his third season to a 79.2 PFF grade last season, while making 62 starts over that 4-year stretch, and he is still only in his age 27 season, so he should remain an above average starter. He can also move inside to center if needed in a pinch. 

Jurgens, meanwhile, was the Eagles’ worst starting offensive lineman by default last season, but still had a 67.1 PFF grade in 16 starts in his first season at center, after posting a 63.0 PFF grade in 11 starts at guard in 2023 and barely playing (35 snaps) as a rookie in 2022. Still only in his age 26 season, he could have further untapped potential, but that’s not a guarantee. Like Dickerson, he is a versatile player who can play both center and guard if needed.

For depth, the Eagles will have the loser of the Matt Pryor/Tyler Steen battle at right guard, as well as free agent addition Kendall Lamm, trade acquisition Kenyon Green, and a trio of rookies, 5th round pick Drew Kendall, 6th round pick Cameron Williams, and another 6th round pick Myles Hinton. Lamm has made 44 starts in 10 seasons in the league, including 34 in the past seven seasons, a stretch in which he has finished above 60 on PFF six times, including a 72.7 PFF grade in seven starts last season. He’s now going into his age 33 season and could struggle if forced into an extended starting role by injury, but, as far as swing tackle options go, he’s a pretty good one.

Green, meanwhile, is a bust of a 2022 1st round pick, receiving a 37.7 PFF grade in 14 starts as a rookie and a 38.6 PFF grade in nine starts last season, with a season missed due to injury in between. Only in his age 24 season, it’s possible he still has some untapped upside, but he has a long way to go to even be an adequate starter and is best as a reserve. The rookies, meanwhile, are unlikely to be able to contribute in a significant way in year one, but won’t need to do so, on an overall deep and talented offensive line.

Grade: A

Edge Defenders

While the Eagles had minimal losses on offense this off-season, they did have some significant losses on defense. Of the 11 players who played at least 500 snaps for them on defense last season, four of them are no longer on the team while a fifth is recovering from a devastating injury that could cost him most or all of the 2025 season, among other more minor losses. The Eagles did add some replacements, but, overall, the players they lost are significantly better than the players they added. 

On top of that, the Eagles are likely to have more injuries on defense than they had a year ago, when they had the second fewest adjusted games lost to injury of any defense. The Eagles are starting from a high base point on this side of the ball, leading the league in both yards per play allowed and first down rate allowed, so they have a good chance to still play at an above average level, but they should be noticeably worse.

Arguably the most impactful loss on defense for the Eagles this off-season is edge defender Josh Sweat, who led Eagles edge defenders in snaps played with 622 and led the entire Eagles defense in sacks with 8. In addition to those sacks, he also added 9 hits and a 13.2% pressure rate, while also playing at an above average level against the run, leading to him receiving an overall grade of 75.7 from PFF. Additionally, the Eagles traded Bryce Huff, who had a 68.4 PFF grade across 285 snaps last season, and lost Brandon Graham to retirement, after he had a 78.6 PFF grade across 311 snaps last season.

Only two Eagles edge defenders who played a snap last season return to the team in 2025, Nolan Smith and Jalyx Hunt, who both figure to see expanded roles from the 546 snaps and 240 snaps respectively that they played last season. Both are talented players who have the upside to do well in expanded roles, but both are also unproven young players. Smith, a 2023 1st round pick, struggled with a 50.5 PFF grade across 187 snaps as a rookie, before taking a big step forward in his second season in the league, with a 76.1 PFF grade, playing well as a run defender and adding 6.5 sacks, 3 hits, and a 11.2% pressure rate as a pass rusher. Hunt, meanwhile, was a 3rd round rookie last season and had a 64.3 PFF grade. Both could take a step forward in 2025, but that’s not a guarantee.

The biggest outside addition the Eagles made at the edge defender position is first round pick Jihaad Campbell, but he is a hybrid off ball linebacker/edge defender who is also very raw, so he might not see a big snap count on the edge right away. Additionally, the Eagles added veterans Josh Uche and Azeez Ojulari, but both are underwhelming options. Uche, a 2020 2nd round pick, has finished above 60 on PFF as a pass rusher in all five seasons in the league, while totaling 20.5 sacks, 20 hits, and a 15.2% pressure rate in 64 career games, but he has been limited to just 21.4 snaps per game with a max of 373 snaps played in a season. That’s largely due to his poor run defense, but it’s also due to him missing 20 games in five seasons in the league. He could be a useful situational pass rusher, but probably won’t play a significant snap count and could miss more time with injury.

Ojulari is also a former 2nd round pick, selected by the Giants in 2021, and he’s still only going into his age 25 season, but he hasn’t shown much in four seasons in the league, finishing below 60 on PFF in three of the four seasons, with his career best 62.4 PFF grade coming on just 230 snaps in 2022. Additionally, he’s been limited to just 348 snaps per season over the past three seasons, while missing 22 total games over that stretch. He could still have untapped upside, but it’s far from a guarantee he will ever develop into even a solid rotational player. This edge defender group has some upside, but overall looks significantly worse than a year ago.

Grade: B

Interior Defenders

The Eagles also lost interior defender Milton Williams, who received a 70.1 PFF grade across 500 snaps last season, struggling against the run, but excelling as a pass rusher, with 5 sacks, 7 hits, a 13.2% pressure rate, and a 90.4 PFF pass rush grade, which was 2nd best among eligible interior defenders. To replace him, the Eagles will likely give more playing time to Jordan Davis (387 snaps) and Moro Ojomo (388 snaps) and they used a 4th round pick on Ty Robinson to give themselves additional depth.

Davis is a 2022 1st round pick and has been impressive on an expanded snap count in the past, with a 70.5 PFF grade across 519 snaps in 2023, before taking a back seat to Milton Williams in 2024, when Davis also fell to a 65.9 PFF grade. Davis also had a 71.4 PFF grade across 225 snaps as a rookie, so he has shown plenty of potential, but the Eagles have thus far been hesitant to give the big 6-6 336 pounder too much playing time. 

Only in his age 25 season, perhaps this is the season Davis finally puts it all together, but that’s not a guarantee. Ojomo, meanwhile, is a 2023 7th round pick who flashed potential with a 68.0 PFF grade in a limited role last season, in the first significant action of his career, particularly excelling as a pass rusher, not recording a sack, but finishing with 5 hits, and a 11.6% pressure rate in a limited role. He could continue playing at a similar level in an expanded role in 2025, though that’s also not a guarantee.

Jalen Carter remains as the top interior defender and the 2023 9th overall pick has developed into one of the best interior defenders in the league, with a 89.0 PFF grade across 562 snaps as a rookie and a 74.1 PFF grade across 830 snaps last season. He’s a capable run defender, but primarily excels as a pass rusher, with 10.5 sacks, 17 hits, and a 10.8% pressure rate in 32 career games. Still only going into his age 24 season, Carter may just be scratching the surface on his potential and looks likely to be a high level interior defender for years to come. Overall, this position group has a lot of upside, but outside of Jalen Carter, the rest of this group has significant downside as well.

Grade: B+

Linebackers

One player the Eagles prioritized keeping this off-season is linebacker Zach Baun, who they gave a 3-year, 51 million dollar deal to keep him off the open market, making him the 4th highest paid off ball linebacker in the league. Baun finished last season as PFF’s 1st ranked linebacker with a 90.1 PFF grade across 938 snaps, but he is a complete one-year wonder, as the 2020 3rd round pick played a total of 664 snaps in his first four seasons in the league in New Orleans, while never finishing with a PFF grade better than 71.1, including two seasons below 60. Eagles defensive coordinator Vic Fangio clearly knows how to get the most out of Baun, but it still seems unlikely that Baun will be as good two years in a row, even if he has permanently turned a corner and will remain an above average every down player.

Nakobe Dean played well as the other starting linebacker, with a 75.3 PFF grade across 857 snaps, but a torn patellar tendon suffered in the playoffs has his entire 2025 season in jeopardy, given the timing of the injury and that is arguably the most serious knee injury a player can sustain. Oren Burks, who played well in his absence, wasn’t retained this off-season, leaving the starting job until Dean returns either to the rookie Jihaad Campbell or 2024 5th round pick Jeremiah Trotter, who flashed a ton of potential as a rookie with a 85.1 PFF grade across 104 snaps, but who is still a projection to a much larger role. With Baun likely to regress at least somewhat and Dean coming off of a major injury with no timetable to return, this linebacking corps looks likely to be significantly worse in 2025 than 2024.

Grade: A-

Secondary

In addition to Vic Fangio being hired as defensive coordinator, the other big reason why the Eagles’ defense was significantly better in 2024 than 2023 was the addition of a pair of talented cornerbacks in the first two rounds of the draft. First round pick Quinyon Mitchell played well on the outside with a 72.0 PFF grade across 954 snaps, while second round pick Cooper DeJean excelled as primarily a slot cornerback, with a 82.7 PFF grade across 626 snaps. Both should continue playing at a high level in 2025, but the Eagles did lose their other starting outside cornerback Darius Slay (698 snaps), as well as top reserves Isaiah Rodgers (329 snaps) and Avonte Maddox (345 snaps). Maddox struggled with a 56.3 PFF grade and won’t really be missed, but Slay and Rodgers had PFF grades of 67.6 and 76.0 respectively and will be missed.

To replace them, the Eagles signed veteran Adoree Jackson in free agency. Jackson has had an up and down and injury plagued career. The 2017 1st round pick received PFF grades of 75.4 and 73.0 in his first two seasons in the league, while not missing a game, and he went on to finish above 70 on PFF in five of his first six seasons in the league from 2017-2022, but from 2019-2022 he missed 29 games in four seasons and those injuries seemed to catch up with him in 2023, when he missed another three games and dropped off significantly when on the field, finishing with a 49.4 PFF grade. 

His poor 2023 season led to Jackson being a reserve with the Giants to start the 2024 season, but he did work his way back into the starting lineup down the stretch and, overall, he had a bounce back year with a 69.0 PFF grade, albeit across just 426 snaps, with another three games missed due to injury. Now going into his age 30 season, Jackson’s best days are almost definitely behind him and he is likely to miss more time with injury again in 2025, but his poor 2023 season now looks like a fluke and he could remain at least a capable starter when healthy in 2025, even if not at his best.

Jackson could face competition for his starting job from 2023 4th round pick Kelee Ringo, who flashed potential with a 65.8 PFF grade across 113 snaps last season, after also having a 64.5 PFF grade across 198 snaps as a rookie, but most likely Ringo will remain a reserve and, if he has to make significant starts due to injuries ahead of him on the depth chart, he could struggle, despite the potential he has displayed, as he is a projection to a larger role.

The Eagles could give Cooper DeJean an expanded role, playing him outside more, rather than keeping him as a pure slot specialist, but he probably wouldn’t be nearly as good outside as he is on the slot and the Eagles might need him to play safety in base packages more than they need him to play outside cornerback. Safety CJ Gardner-Johnson, who had a 75.1 PFF grade across 90.7 snaps last season, wasn’t retained this off-season. 

To replace him, the Eagles used a second round pick on Andrew Mukuba, who will compete with 2023 3rd round pick Sydney Brown, who has flashed potential in two seasons in the league, but only across 414 total snaps. It’s likely neither will be as good as Gardner-Johnson was and it may be for the best for DeJean to play safety in base packages and then move to the slot in sub packages, when either Brown or Mukuba would come in to play safety. DeJean would be a projection to his new role as a hybrid safety/slot cornerback, but he still has a huge upside and having him on the field every down could easily benefit this defense.

Reed Blankenship remains as the other starting safety. He went undrafted in 2022, but has turned into an above average starting safety, flashing potential with a 75.2 PFF grade as a rookie and continuing that into a starting role over the past two seasons, with PFF grades of 73.4 and 74.4 respectively. Still only in his age 26 season, he should remain an above average safety in 2025. Like the rest of this defense, the Eagles’ secondary is unlikely to be as good in 2025 as they were in 2024, due to off-season losses, but this still looks like an above average group.

Grade: B+

Kicker

Jake Elliott struggled mightily in 2024 and was the Eagles’ achilles heel, costing the Eagles 8.20 points compared to an average kicker last season, the 5th most points below average in the NFL, but that kind of came out of nowhere, as Elliott had previously accounted for 19.64 points above average in his previous three seasons. Still only going into his age 30 season, it seems unlikely that Elliott’s down year in 2024 is a sign of a permanent decline and he could easily bounce back in 2025. The Eagles clearly believe in him still, not adding any competition for him this off-season. 

Grade: B

Conclusion

The Eagles are not as talented as they were a year ago due to off-season losses, particularly on defense, but they are starting from the base point of being the best team in the league last season, so they should remain a high level team and compete to make it back to the Super Bowl out of the NFC. At the very least, they still look like the best team in their division, though they do have a much tougher schedule than the Commanders.

Prediction: 12-5, 1st in NFC East

Kansas City Chiefs vs Philadelphia Eagles: Super Bowl LIX Pick

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Kansas CIty Chiefs (17-2) vs. Philadelphia Eagles (17-3) in Super Bowl LIX

The Chiefs are small favorites for the second straight game, favored by 1.5 points in the Super Bowl against the Eagles after being favored by 1.5 points against the Bills in the AFC Championship. Against the Bills, I bet on the Chiefs, citing the Chiefs’ history when they’re not big favorites, and their history in close games. Overall, the Chiefs are 51-19 in games decided by seven points or fewer when Patrick Mahomes starts, including 11-0 this season, and they are 20-6-1 ATS as underdogs or favorites of less than three when Mahomes starts, including 8-0 ATS in the post-season. Because of that, the Chiefs are close to an automatic bet in those spots, unless there is a good reason not to pick them.

However, this game against the Eagles is different and there are a couple good reasons to bet against the Chiefs this time around. For one, the Eagles have been just as good in close games as the Chiefs in recent years, going 20-5 over the past three seasons in games decided by seven points or fewer when Jalen Hurts starts and finishes the game. On top of that, while the Bills and Chiefs were pretty evenly matched, the Eagles look like a significantly better team, so this game might not even end up being that close.

The Eagles had a significant edge in both first down rate differential (+2.78% vs. +1.82%) and yards per play differential (+0.91 vs. -0.06), this season, excluding both teams’ meaningless week 18 game. The Eagles also are in a much better injury situation now than they have been for much of the season. The Chiefs have recently gotten back key players in starting wide receiver Marquise Brown (15 games missed), starting edge defender Charles Omenihu (11 games missed), and starting cornerback Jaylen Watson (11 games missed) and they have significantly improved their offensive line by moving Joe Thuney from left guard to left tackle, which is a more important position. However, that pales in comparison to the Eagles.

All-Pro wide receiver AJ Brown (4 games missed), talented wide receiver Devonta Smith (4 games), talented tight end Dallas Goedert (7 games), All-Pro left tackle Jordan Mailata (5 games), All-Pro right tackle Lane Johnson (2 games), and top cornerback Darius Slay (3 games) all missed significant time this season and have since returned, while talented edge defender Brandon Graham (9 games missed) seems likely to return. Having Hurts healthy is probably the most important one, as the Eagles have won 12 straight games that he has started and finished.

In the current injury situations these two teams are in, the Eagles have a 5-point edge in my roster rankings. The Chiefs obviously have the edge at quarterback, but aside from that, there isn’t a single other position group where the Chiefs have the edge. The Patrick Mahomes over Jalen Hurts edge is significant, but not nearly enough to make up for the fact that the Eagles are a much better team overall. 

In a lot of ways, this reminds me of the Chiefs’ Super Bowl matchup against the Buccaneers a few years ago, when the Chiefs got to the Super Bowl on the strength of a lot of close victories (9-0 in one-score games that season), before running into a much better team and getting blown out. Even if this game does end up being relatively close, the Chiefs wouldn’t necessarily have the edge in a close game either, given Jalen Hurts recent track record in close games. I wouldn’t make a big wager on the Eagles because of the Chiefs’ history as underdogs or small favorites in the playoffs, but I think we’re getting too much line value with the Eagles to pass on betting on them.

Philadelphia Eagles 27 Kansas City Chiefs 22 Upset Pick +105

Pick against the spread: Philadelphia +1.5

Confidence: Medium

Washington Commanders at Philadelphia Eagles: 2024 NFC Championship Pick

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Washington Commanders (14-5) at Philadelphia Eagles (16-3)

The Eagles have been the slightly better of these two teams statistically, winning two more games and finishing the season with a first down rate differential of +2.64% and a yards per play differential of +0.77, as opposed to +0.98% and +0.15 respectively for the Commanders. However, the Eagles’ big edge is their injury situation. While the Commanders will be without their top offensive lineman Sam Cosmi in this game, after being relatively healthy throughout the regular season, the Eagles are much healthier than they have been for much of the season. Most notably, key players like All-Pro wide receiver AJ Brown (4 games), talented wide receiver Devonta Smith (4 games), talented tight end Dallas Goedert (7 games), All-Pro left tackle Jordan Mailata (5 games), All-Pro right tackle Lane Johnson (2 games), and top cornerback Darius Slay (3 games) all have returned after missing significant time with injury this season. 

In the injury situations these two teams are currently in, the Eagles have a 6-point edge over the Commanders in my roster rankings, with an edge in every position group, except quarterback. The Jayden Daniels over Jalen Hurts edge is significant, but not nearly enough to make up for the fact that the Eagles are a much better team overall. There isn’t quite enough here for the Eagles to be worth betting as 6-point home favorites, but they should be the right side for pick ‘em purposes.

Philadelphia Eagles 31 Washington Commanders 23

Pick against the spread: Philadelphia -6

Confidence: Low

Los Angeles Rams at Philadelphia Eagles: 2024 NFC Divisional Round Pick

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Los Angeles Rams (11-7) at Philadelphia Eagles (15-3)

Both of these teams came into the playoffs much healthier than they were at stretches this season. The Rams almost beat the Lions in Detroit week 1, but lost top wide receiver Puka Nacua in that game and were just 2-4 when he returned to the lineup in week 8. From week 8 on, the Rams won 8 of 10 games, excluding a meaningless week 18 game in which their starters didn’t play. During that 8 wins in 10 games stretch, the Rams had a 4-game stretch from week 13 to week 16 in which they had their expected starting five offensive linemen together for the first time all season, a stretch in which they won all 4 games, including an upset victory over the Bills.

Even excluding the Rams’ meaningless week 18 game, they still finished the regular season with middling numbers in terms of yards per play differential (-0.27) and first down rate differential (+0.71%), but from week 8 to week 17, those numbers were -0.01 and 1.78% respectively and in their four games with a healthy offensive line those numbers were +0.07 and +3.29%. Now essentially fully healthy in the post-season, the Rams dismantled the Vikings in round 1, winning the yards per play battle by +1.94 and the first down rate battle by +3.52%.

The Eagles also have underwhelming season-long numbers in terms of yards per play differential and first down rate differential, finishing the regular season at +0.87 and 2.91% respectively, excluding their meaningless week 18 game, but that is still significantly better than the Rams’ season-long numbers and the Eagles have had several key players miss significant time with injury who have since returned, far more than even the Rams. That list includes All-Pro wide receiver AJ Brown (4 games), talented wide receiver Devonta Smith (4 games), talented tight end Dallas Goedert (7 games), All-Pro left tackle Jordan Mailata (5 games), All-Pro right tackle Lane Johnson (2 games), top cornerback Darius Slay (3 games) and talented edge defender Bryce Huff (5 games).

In their current injury situations, the Eagles have a 6-point edge over the Rams in my roster rankings and look like a significantly better team. The Eagles are favored by 6 points at home in this game, so there isn’t quite enough here for them to be bettable, especially since the Rams are one of the better road teams in the league due to their lack of homefield advantage in Los Angeles (+1.9 average point differential at home, +1.1 on the road since moving in 2016), but the Eagles still look like the right side for pick ‘em purposes.

Philadelphia Eagles 24 Los Angeles Rams 17

Pick against the spread: Philadelphia -6

Confidence: Low

Green Bay Packers at Philadelphia Eagles: 2024 NFC Wild Card Round Pick

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Green Bay Packers (11-6) at Philadelphia Eagles (14-3)

The Eagles won three more games than the Packers this season, but they were pretty similar in terms of yards per play differential (+0.97 for the Packers, +0.87 for the Eagles) and first down rate differential (+2.91% for the Eagles, +1.57% for the Packers), which are much more predictive than win/loss records. The Packers also faced a much tougher schedule than the Eagles, with an opponents winning percentage of .533, best among playoff qualifiers, as opposed to .453 for the Eagles, second worst among playoff qualifiers.

The Eagles did fare much better against other playoff qualifiers though, going 5-2 straight up and against the spread with a +29 point differential, as opposed to 2-5 straight up and 1-5-1 ATS for the Packers, who had a -15 point differential in those games. The Eagles are also in a much better injury situation. Not only are the Eagles only missing one week 1 starter, edge defender Brandon Graham, while the Packers are missing three, cornerback Jaire Alexander, wide receiver Christian Watson, and edge defender Preston Smith (trade), but the Eagles have also had more key players miss time this season who have since returned.

Both teams have been without their starting quarterback for about two and a half games, but the Eagles have also been without All-Pro wide receiver AJ Brown (4 games), talented wide receiver Devonta Smith (4 games), talented tight end Dallas Goedert (7 games), All-Pro left tackle Jordan Mailata (5 games), All-Pro right tackle Lane Johnson (2 games), top cornerback Darius Slay (3 games) and talented edge defender Bryce Huff (5 games).

Meanwhile the Packers’ most notable injuries this season aside from the players who remain out are starting wide receiver Romeo Doubs (4 games), every down linebacker Quay Walker (4 games), and talented safety Evan Williams (5 games), which is a much less significant list. In their current injury situations, I have the Eagles favored at home by seven points on my calculated line, despite these two teams being pretty equal statistically, so we’re getting decent line value with the Eagles as only 4.5-point favorites. I don’t think there is quite enough here for the Eagles to be worth betting, but they should be the right side for pick ‘em purposes,

Philadelphia Eagles 27 Green Bay Packers 20

Pick against the spread: Philadelphia -4.5

Confidence: Low

New York Giants at Philadelphia Eagles: 2024 Week 18 NFL Pick

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New York Giants (3-13) at Philadelphia Eagles (13-3)

The Eagles are resting some key starters in this game, locked into the #2 seed in the NFC regardless of the outcome of this game. Normally I don’t like to bet on games where one team is resting their starter because they tend to be unpredictable, but I think we’re getting some line value with the Eagles in this game. If this was a regular game, my calculated line would have the Eagles favored by 18.5 points. Instead, this line is Philadelphia -2.5, meaning the Eagles’ absent starters would have to be worth 16 points for this line to make sense and I think that’s too much, especially since the Eagles will either be starting Kenny Pickett, a solid backup, or Tanner McKee, who showed promise in limited action last week, at quarterback.

You might be hesitant about betting on a team resting starters, but teams are actually 20-14 ATS in that spot over the past 13 seasons, which isn’t a reason to bet on teams resting starters, but it’s a reason not to shy away from it. The Giants are also in a bad spot after a big upset win last week, winning straight up as underdogs of 7 points against the Colts. Teams cover the spread just at a 41.3% rate the week after winning as home underdogs or five points or more, as it tends to be tough for a bad team to bring that kind of effort two weeks in a row. There still is a lot of uncertainty in a game where the Eagles are resting starters, so this is a small bet, but I think there is money to be made here.

Philadelphia Eagles 23 New York Giants 17

Pick against the spread: Philadelphia -2.5

Confidence: Medium