Quarterback
Last off-season, the Falcons ended the Matt Ryan era after 15 seasons, shipping the veteran to the Colts for a third round pick. It seemed to be the start of a full on rebuild, with the Falcons coming off 5 straight seasons in NFL purgatory, winning between 4-10 games, including three seasons with exactly seven wins. Seven is the number of games the Falcons won in their final season with Ryan in 2021, but they were even worse than that suggested, as they went 7-2 in one-score games, finishing 28th in both point differential and DVOA, even with Ryan having a decent season.
Without Ryan, the Falcons looked likely to be one of the worst teams in the league in 2022. Ryan was replaced with third round pick Desmond Ridder and veteran Marcus Mariota, who would start until Ridder was ready to get a shot, an uninspiring duo on an uninspiring roster. The Falcons defense did as expected, finishing 30th in defensive DVOA last season, but their offense was actually pretty solid, ranking 13th in offensive DVOA.
Their quarterback duo was unspectacular as expected, with Mariota completing 61.3% of his passes for an average of 7.40 YPA, 15 touchdowns, and 9 interceptions in the first 13 starts of the season and Ridder completing 63.5% for his an average of just 6.16 YPA, 2 touchdowns, and 0 interceptions in the final 4 starts of the season, after the Falcons fell out of playoff contention and let the rookie play. However, the Falcons excelled on the ground, ranking 1st in carries (559), 3rd in rushing yards (2,718), 10th in rushing touchdowns (17), and 4th in YPC (4.86), which is why they were slightly above average overall on offense, in spite of their lack of a consistent passing game.
The Falcons didn’t find an upgrade under center this off-season, winning too many games last season (7-10) to be in position to draft a top quarterback without paying a steep price to move up, the Falcons settled for veteran Taylor Heinicke, who they are hoping will be a backup to an improved Desmond Ridder, in his second season in the league. Ridder didn’t show a lot in limited action as a rookie, with a 55.9 PFF grade, a downgrade from Mariota, who was at 66.3, and the history of third round pick quarterbacks developing into anything more than career backups or journeymen is limited, but it’s possible he could take a step forward in year two and at least keep Heinicke on the bench for most of the year, barring injury.
Heinicke is a solid backup option, but his career QB rating is just 85.7 in 25 starts, all but one of which have come in the past two seasons, when he has received grades of 59.4 and 49.8 respectively from PFF. If Ridder doesn’t play well enough to keep Heinicke on the bench, the Falcons’ passing game is going to be in a lot of trouble. This is one of the most underwhelming quarterback rooms in the NFL, with Heinicke being a backup caliber quarterback and Ridder yet to establish himself as a starting caliber player either.
Grade: C
Running Backs
As I mentioned, the Falcons rushing attack was one of the best in the league last season and kept this offense slightly above average overall, despite their passing game issues. Run blocking was a big part of the reason for their success, as they ranked 1st in team PFF run blocking, but their running backs were successful in their own right. Fifth round rookie Tyler Allegier led the way, taking 210 carries for 1,035 yards (4.93 YPC) and 3 touchdowns, while ranking 17th in carry success rate at 52% and ranking 6th on PFF in overall rushing grade at 88.0. It’s possible he won’t be quite as good going forward, but he has clearly established himself as being a great value at his draft position.
Veteran Cordarelle Patterson also got in on the action last season, taking 144 carries for 695 yards (4.83 YPC) and 8 touchdowns, while ranking 1st in carry success rate at 60% and ranking 13th on PFF in overall rushing grade at 83.5. That was only his second full season as a running back, spending his first eight seasons in the league as a reserve wide receiver, an occasional running back, and a dynamic return man, before rushing for 4.04 YPC and 6 touchdowns on 153 carries in his first full season as a running back in 2021. Patterson is going into his age 32 season, but is coming off the better of his two seasons as a running back and could remain a useful complementary running back. The Falcons also got 366 yards and a touchdown on 76 carries (4.82 YPC) out of #3 running back Caleb Huntley (86.0 PFF run grade) last season, in the first action of the 2021 undrafted free agent’s career.
Allegier, Patterson, and Huntley all return for 2023, but, despite that and despite other needs elsewhere, the Falcons opted to use the 8th overall pick on Texas running back Bijan Robinson. Robinson is one of the better running back prospects of the last couple decades, but the recent history of running backs being taken in the top-10 and proving to be worth it is not favorable, especially when you consider how easy it is to find running backs cheap and plug them in behind good blocking to get rushing production, like the Falcons did last season.
Patterson now could wind up being cut, now as the likely third running back on the depth chart or even the fourth, depending on Huntley. He is getting up there in age and owed a non-guaranteed 4.25 million, and even if he returns it will mostly be for his special teams ability, without any real role in the backfield barring injury ahead of him on the depth chart. Tyler Allegier isn’t going anywhere though and still figures to have a role on what is likely to be a run-heavy offense. Robinson will get a lot of touches, but a lot of those will come in the passing game, so Allegier is likely to still receive more than a handful of carries per game, while Huntley likely stays on the roster as a deep reserve option, based on the promise he showed in limited action last season.
The passing game is where Robinson most sets himself apart, as Allegier, Patterson, and Huntley averaged just 0.79, 0.72, and 0.10 yards per route run respectively last season. Patterson has been better in the past, averaging 1.26 yards per route run in eight seasons as a wide receiver and 2.24 yards per route run in his first season as a running back in 2021, but Robinson still figures to see the majority of the passing down snaps. This backfield is definitely made better by the addition of Robinson, but it’s unclear if that addition was enough of an upgrade to be worth where the Falcons selected him, especially when they had other needs. They will likely remain one of the best rushing offenses in the league, but they probably won’t be significantly better than a year ago, when they were already one of the best in the league.
Grade: A
Offensive Line
In addition to excelling in run blocking, the Falcons also ranked 8th in team pass blocking grade on PFF, as they were truly one of the best offensive lines in the league. Things are mostly the same this year, with a couple exceptions. One is left guard, which was the one weakness of this group a year ago, with Colby Gossett (267 snaps) and Elijah Wilkinson (574 snaps) being the primary starters and earning mediocre PFF grades of 55.3 and 64.3 respectively. Both Gossett and Wilkinson are no longer with the team and the Falcons could easily get better play at the left guard in their absence.
An option the Falcons have now that they didn’t have a year ago is 2nd round rookie Matthew Bergeron, who could be an instant starter at left guard as a rookie, but they also have Matt Hennessy, who missed most of last season with injury, but flashed a lot of potential with a 75.4 grade in three starts at left guard last season, after a 76.4 grade while making all 17 starts at center in 2021 in the first significant action of the 2020 3rd round pick’s career. Hennessy struggled in pass protection at center (50.5 PFF grade in pass protection), mostly earning his solid overall grade in 2021 from his dominant run blocking grade (88.1), but he was better in pass protection in limited action at guard (69.0), while keeping up a high level of run blocking (82.6).
Still only in his age 26 season, Hennessy has a lot of potential if healthy. He and the rookie Bergeron will compete for the starting job, with the loser serving as valuable depth, and whoever wins the job could easily prove to be an upgrade over what the Falcons had at the position a year ago. 2021 3rd round pick Jalen Mayfield could also technically be a candidate for the left guard job, where he made 16 starts as a rookie, but he struggled mightily (48.7 PFF grade), before missing all of last season with injury. Still only in his age 23 season, he shouldn’t be completely written off, but he’ll almost definitely start the season as a reserve.
The other difference on this offensive line this season is they are very unlikely to get 17 starts out of their other four offensive line starters again this season, meaning their depth will be tested more and their overall performance will likely suffer as a result, even if only slightly. The strength of this offensive line was on the right side, where right guard Chris Lindstrom and right tackle Kaleb McGary excelled, with Lindstrom finishing 1st among guards on PFF with a 95.0 grade and McGary finishing 4th among tackles with a 86.6 grade, including run blocking grades of 93.1 and 91.6 respectively.
Lindstrom and McGary were both first round picks in 2019, selected 14th and 31st overall respectively, but they took very different paths to get from there to where they are now. Lindstrom missed most of his rookie season with injury, but flashed potential with a 66.6 PFF grade on 309 snaps and has improved in every season since, from 77.1 in his 2nd season to 83.7 in 2021 to his dominant 95.0 grade last season, while making all 50 possible starts over that stretch. He might not be quite as dominant again in 2023, but, still only in his age 26 season, he figures to be one of, if not the best guards in the league for years to come.
McGary, on the other hand, is a one-year wonder who was mediocre for much of the first three seasons of his career, before last season’s dominant performance. He made 45 of a possible 49 starts in his first three seasons in the league, but posted grades of 53.0, 64.3, and 62.8 respectively. His run blocking was solid, but he consistently struggled in pass protection. In 2022, he took a big leap forward in both aspects, becoming an above average pass protector who dominates in the run game. He’s still only in his age 28 season and he’s always had the talent, but it could be tough for McGary to repeat last season’s performance. He probably won’t regress all the way back to his pre-2022 form, but I would expect him to not be quite as good as he was a year ago, at the very least.
Left tackle Jake Matthews is also a former first round pick, going 6th overall back in the 2014 NFL Draft. Matthews was a very high draft pick and hasn’t been a spectacular player, but it’s also hard to argue he hasn’t been worth the pick, as he has made 145 of a possible 146 starts in nine seasons in the league thus far, only missing a game once way back in his rookie season, and, aside from his rookie season, he has finished above 70 on PFF in every season of his career, eight straight years dating back to 2015, including a 77.2 grade last season.
Matthews is now going into his age 31 season and will probably start to slow down soon, but he hasn’t shown any signs of doing so yet, he has no injury history, and, even if he’s not quite as good this season as he’s been in the past, he should remain an above average starting left tackle at the very least. The Falcons will need Matthews and McGary to remain healthy, without a swing tackle on the roster who has ever started a game in the NFL, but they should remain at least an above average tackle duo, if not one of the best tackle duos in the NFL, which they arguably were a year ago.
Center Drew Dalman isn’t a former first round pick, but the 2021 4th rounder had a solid season in the first starting experience of his career last season, posting a 65.9 grade in 17 starts and providing more balanced play than Matt Hennessy did the year before, keeping Hennessy from taking the job back at all last season. The Falcons took South Carolina center Jovaughn Gwyn in the 7th round of the draft, but he’s unlikely to be anything more than a backup, so Dalman should remain the starter at center, with Hennessy competing for a job at guard. Dalman might not have a high upside, but figures to remain at least a solid starter. The Falcons’ offensive line might not be quite as good as a year ago and figures to have more injuries, but they should still remain one of the best offensive lines in the league, led by a trio of former first round picks who have all developed into among the better players in the league at their respective positions.
Grade: A
Receiving Corps
The Falcons’ quarterback play was a big part of why they struggled in the passing game last season, but their receiving corps was a big part of the problem as well. The Falcons used a top-10 pick in 2021 (tight end Kyle Pitts #4) and a top-10 pick in 2022 (wide receiver Drake London #8) on pass catcher, but, aside from those two, the Falcons receiving corps consisted of journeymen and lightly drafted young players with minimal NFL experience. Things went from bad to worse mid-season when Kyle Pitts got hurt, ending his season after 434 snaps in 10 games.
With Pitts missing much of the year and the rest of this group being very mediocre, the rookie London was by far their most targeted receiver. The Falcons didn’t pass much, with their 415 pass attempts ranking 31st in the NFL, but London still received 117 of those, a whopping 28.2% target share, 3rd highest in the league. London averaged 2.07 yards per route run and dropped just two passes all season, while finishing 12th among wide receivers on PFF with a 83.2 overall grade, but that impressive performance and that huge target share only led to a 72/866/4 slash line and he wasn’t that efficient, averaging just 7.40 yards per target. Part of that was quarterback play, but London was also consistently double teamed, without another reliable target in the passing game.
London is still only going into his age 23 season and could be even better in year two, but it could be hard for him to be too much better than he already was as a rookie and the Falcons didn’t really do anything to get him some help this off-season, aside from losing 2nd leading receiver Olamide Zaccheaus (1.47 yards per route run, 40/533/3 slash line) and replacing him with a comparable veteran Mack Hollins on a 1-year, 2.5 million dollar deal. London figures to continue having a high target share, but it’s hard to imagine him having a higher one than a year ago and he will still continue frequently being double teamed on a team that will be one of the run-heaviest in the league and that doesn’t have a quarterback to consistently get him the ball.
Free agent addition Mack Hollins was a 4th round pick in 2017 and was mostly a special teamer in his first five seasons in the league, but he ended up with a significant role with the Raiders last season and finished with a decent 57/690/4 slash line. However, he only averaged 1.14 yards per route run, while his career average is just 1.07 yards per route run, and he’s already heading into his age 30 season, so it’s not like he has any untapped potential and he could easily decline even further in the next couple years.
Hollins is a very uninspiring option as a #2 wide receiver and probably a downgrade even from Zaccheaus, but the Falcons don’t really have another choice and their options for a #3 wide receiver are even more limited, like they were a year ago. Last season, the 3rd ranked wide receiver on the team in terms of catches was veteran journeyman KhaDarel Hodge with just 13. He’s back in 2023 to compete for the #3 wide receiver role with third year receiver Frank Darby and free agent acquisition Scott Miller, all of whom are very uninspiring options.
Hodge has been in the league for five seasons, but the 13 catches he had last season tied a career high and his career yards per route run average is just 1.29. Darby was just a 6th round pick in 2021 and has only played 74 snaps in two seasons in the league since, despite ample opportunity to move up this weak depth chart. Miller is the most experienced of the bunch and probably the favorite for the #3 job, but the 2019 6th round pick caught just 74 passes in four seasons with the Buccaneers, while averaging just 1.25 yards per route run, prior to signing with the Falcons on a deal barely worth more than the minimum this off-season.
With no reliable wide receiver options behind London, the Falcons will need a big year out of Pitts, whose 28/356/2 slash line in 10 games last season was a disappointment even before he got hurt, considering where he was drafted and that had a 68/1026/1 slash line as a rookie, as compared to an extrapolated slash line of 48/605/3 last season if he had played 17 games. Pitts’ yards per route run average didn’t drop off significantly last season, down to 1.69 from 2.02 as a rookie, much of which can be attributed to the downgrade at quarterback. However, with the Falcons becoming so much more run-heavy last season, Pitts went from running 31.5 routes per game as a rookie to 22.9 last season before injury, even though his overall playing time didn’t change much, playing 45.4 snaps per game as a rookie and 45.6 snaps per game last season before injury. That significantly limited his opportunities to make plays in the passing game and it exposed his deficiencies as a run blocker.
Pitts was still relatively effective as a pass catcher when given the opportunity, ranking 6th among eligible tight ends in yards per route run and 8th in pass catching grade on PFF, after ranking 5th and 6th respectively in those two metrics as a rookie. He has a good chance to bounce back somewhat in 2023, but I wouldn’t expect him to get all the way back to his rookie year level of production, or even close to it. He’s still on a run heavy team, with a mediocre quarterback room, and he could lose some targets to a reserve, with the Falcons trading a late round pick and agreeing to a renegotiated 2-year, 15 million dollar deal with former New England tight end Jonnu Smith this off-season, a big investment in a #2 tight end.
The Falcons are lacking for depth at wide receiver and will use plenty of two tight end sets with Pitts and Smith on the field together, but Smith’s arrival isn’t good news for Pitts production, especially since Smith already has a history with head coach Arthur Smith from their days together with the Titans, where Arthur Smith was tight ends coach and eventually offensive coordinator. Jonnu Smith had spent the past two seasons with the Patriots, who bet on the 2017 3rd round pick’s upside with a 4-year, 50 million dollar deal two off-season ago.
Smith never surpassed 450 yards receiving in a season in four years with the Titans, but averaged a somewhat impressive 1.62 yards per route run in his final two seasons and the Patriots thought they could unlock his potential in a larger role. Smith actually averaged 1.64 yards per route run in his two seasons in New England, but he never really got that larger role in the passing game, playing a part-time role behind Hunter Henry (snap counts of 525 and 422) being primarily used as a blocker (62.3% of his snaps), which was not his strong suit.
As a result of his limited playing time in the passing game, Smith totaled slash lines of just 28/294/1 and 27/245/0 in two seasons in New England, which is why they were so eager to move on from him this off-season, ahead of a previously scheduled 11 million dollar salary, 6.25 million of which was guaranteed. Smith is kind of an odd fit on the run heavy Falcons, as a tight end whose strength is the passing game and who struggles as a blocker, but the Falcons need pass catchers anyway they can get them and Smith’s salary suggests they expect him to have at least some role in the passing game this season.
Smith is an obvious upgrade on the three tight ends who saw action behind Pitts last season, Parker Heese, who led the position group with 646 snaps played with Pitts missing time with injury, Anthony Firkser, and Mycole Pruitt, a trio which combined for just a 30/339/4 slash line on 45 targets and that averaged just 1.10 yards per route run. Firkser and Pruitt are no longer with the team, while Heese is now the #3 tight end at best. Smith is also much more of a threat to Pitts’ role than any of the aforementioned tight ends, but there will be opportunities for both tight ends to get playing time and targets, in a position group with arguably the worst group of wide receivers in the league. Top wide receiver Drake London elevates the group somewhat, but they have next to nothing behind him on the depth chart and tight ends Kyle Pitts and Jonnu Smith aren’t enough to make up for it.
Grade: B-
Edge Defenders
While the Falcons’ offense was solid last year, carried by their dominant run game, their defense was horrendous, ranking 30th in DVOA allowed, keeping the Falcons out of the post-season. The Falcons will likely remain a dominant running team on offense in 2023 and could remain a decent unit on that side of the ball as a result, even with what looks like a once again underwhelming passing game, but if they are going to take the next step as a team they are going to improve significantly on the defensive side of the ball. Fortunately, defensive performance is much more unpredictable and inconsistent year-to-year than offensive performance and the Falcons did a good job adding upgrades on this side of the ball this off-season.
Nowhere did the Falcons add more than at the edge defender position, where they signed Calais Campbell and Bud Dupree in free agency to 1-year deals worth 7 million and 3 million respectively, in addition to using a 3rd round pick on Ohio State’s Zach Harrison. It makes sense that the Falcons would focus on this position, as they had just 21 sacks last season (2nd worst in the NFL), 18 sacks the season before (worst in the NFL), and somehow haven’t had more than 39 sacks in a season since 2004. They really needed to improve their edge defender group.
Now, if anything, the Falcons have a crowded edge defender group. They also re-signed veteran Lorenzo Carter to a 2-year, 9 million dollar deal this off-season, after he led this group with 909 snaps played last season, 7th most in the league among edge defenders. Carter undoubtedly will play significantly weaker snaps in a much deeper group this year, but the Falcons also still have second year players Arnold Ebiketie (516 snaps) and DeAngelo Malone (216 snaps), who went in the 2nd round and respectively respectively, as well as 2021 5th round pick Adetokunbo Ogundeji (541 snaps), who all played at least somewhat significant snap counts last season.
To rectify the logjam at the edge defender position, the Falcons could have Calais Campbell line up on the interior in obvious passing situations, something he has done frequently throughout his career, sometimes on a full time basis. Despite that, he has still been a highly productive pass rusher, getting production regardless of where he’s been lined up, totaling 99 sacks, 161 hits, and a 9.8% pressure rate in 227 career games in 15 seasons in the league, while playing at a high level against the run as well, both on the inside and on the edge.
As a result of his high level of performance, Campbell has finished above 70 on PFF in 12 straight seasons, including 6 straight seasons over 80 in his prime from 2014-2019. Campbell is now going into his age 37 season, so his best days are behind him and he could easily decline further this season, but he is still coming off of a season in which he played 548 snaps and received a 77.2 grade from PFF, playing the run well and totaling 5.5 sacks, 11 hits, and a 9.0% pressure rate as a pass rusher, so even if he does decline significantly in 2023, he could still be a useful player for the Falcons, especially when you consider his versatility. On top of that, if he can continue his level of play from recent seasons (71.9, 80.8, and 77.2), he will be a very valuable asset for the Falcons, who haven’t had a pass rusher like that in years.
Bud Dupree isn’t as promising of a free agent signing, which is why he came so much cheaper, even just two off-seasons after signing a 5-year, 82.5 million dollar deal with the Titans, who ended up paying him 35.25 million over just two seasons. Dupree was a first round pick by the Steelers in 2015 and seemingly had a breakout year in his 5th season in the league 2019, posting a career high 77.7 PFF grade and totaling 11.5 sacks, 9 hits, and a 9.4% pressure rate as a pass rusher, but wasn’t as good the following season and then suffered a torn ACL that ended his season after 11 games. That didn’t deter the Titans from giving him that aforementioned big contract, but Dupree was never worth it, in part because subsequent injuries limited him to just 11 games in each of the past two seasons as well.
Dupree now heads into his age 30 season and, in eight seasons in the league, his only other season higher than 70 on PFF was another injury plagued season in his 2nd season in the league in 2016, when he earned a 71.6 grade on 319 snaps in seven games. In his last two seasons with the Titans, Dupree has received grades of 54.2 and 58.2 respectively, with just 7 sacks, 9 hits, a pressure rate of 9.2% in 22 games. He could be a little bit better in 2023, but his best days are almost definitely behind him and, given his age and injury history, he could easily continue struggling and/or miss more time with injury this season. He probably won’t have more than a rotational role in a position group that is much deeper than a year ago.
Fellow veteran Lorenzo Carter also figures to have a rotational role, after playing a heavy snap count in a much thinner position group a year ago. That could benefit Carter, whose 60.5 PFF grade last season was the worst of his 5-year career. That being said, his career high PFF grade for a season is 70.7 all the way back in 2019, so, even when he’s been a rotational player in his career, he’s never been more than a solid option. He’ll probably be better than a year ago, but I wouldn’t expect more than slightly above average play from him in a rotational role.
Of the Falcons’ young edge defenders, Arnold Ebiketie has the most promise, selected 38th overall a year ago. His 64.5 PFF grade as a rookie is middling, but it was not bad for a rookie and his snap count of 516 was not bad for a rookie either, so he could easily take a step forward in his second season in the league and become a more effective player. DeAngelo Malone didn’t play as many snaps as a rookie, only playing 216 nondescript snaps, but he was a relatively high draft pick too (82nd) and could take a step forward in a larger role in year two.
Meanwhile, the rookie Zach Harrison could also see action as a rookie and, even if he doesn’t, is obviously locked into a roster spot based on where he was drafted. Adetokunbo Ogundeji, on the other hand, struggled mightily last season with a 43.8 PFF grade and could end up being the odd man out in a much deeper group this season, after also struggling with a 54.2 PFF grade on 527 snaps as a rookie in 2021. He’s better against the run than he is as a pass rusher, but he only has a 3.6% pressure rate for his career and his run defense hasn’t been that good either.
Ogundeji was only a 5th round pick, so it wouldn’t be a surprise if he never developed into even a capable rotational player, and, with the Falcons adding three edge defenders in the first three rounds of the past two drafts, as well as a pair of veterans added in free agency this off-season, it seems likely that Ogundeji will be starting this season either on the practice squad or another team’s roster. This still isn’t a great group, especially since Campbell will line up on the interior rather than the edge in many obvious passing situations, but they are much deeper as a group and have many more useful options than a year ago.
Grade: B-
Interior Defenders
At the interior defender position, the Falcons’ big addition this off-season was David Onyemata, who came over on a 3-year, 35 million dollar deal from the Saints, with whom he spent the first seven seasons of his career, after being drafted by them in the 4th round in 2016. During that time, Onyemata developed into an above average starter, with four seasons above 70 on PFF in a 6-span span, including 81.9, 88.2, and 81.9 in 2018, 2020, and 2021 respectively. He has especially played well as a pass rusher, with 23 sacks, 35 hits, and a 8.9% pressure rate in 90 games over the past six seasons combined, while finishing above 60 on PFF in pass rush grade in all six seasons, but he also held up against the run as well, finishing above 60 on PFF in five straight seasons prior to 53.0 in 2022.
Onyemata’s decline against the run last season is a concern because he is now heading into his age 31 season and could easily continue declining. He still had 5 sacks, 5 hits, and a 9.1% pressure rate as a pass rusher last season, but, because of his run struggles, his 64.0 overall grade on PFF was the second worst of the past six seasons and it wouldn’t be a surprise at all if his best days were behind him at this point. Still, he should remain at least a solid starter and one who is at his best as a pass rusher, which is much needed for the Falcons. Onyemata figures to start inside next to Grady Jarrett, who has been an above average starter for the Falcons for years.
Jarrett hasn’t been quite as good over the past two seasons as he was in his prime, when he finished above 80 on PFF in four straight seasons from 2017-2020 on an average of 791 snaps per season, and his decline is a concern, considering he now heads into his age 30 season, but he still received PFF grades of 67.6 and 71.3 on snap counts of 864 and 856 respectively over the past two seasons, so he still remains an above average every down starter and could easily remain that into 2023, even if his best days are behind him.
For his career, he has 32.5 sacks, 78 hits, and a 8.9% pressure rate in 127 games and his pass rush numbers over the past two seasons aren’t too far off, with 7 sacks, 21 hits, and a 8.0% pressure rate in 34 games. He’s also remained a solid run defender, allowing him to continue playing every down. It’s possible he could totally drop off this season, but I would expect more of the same from him as the past two seasons, considering he isn’t totally over the hill and doesn’t have a significant injury history, having played in every game in 7 of 8 seasons in the league, with just 3 total missed games ever.
Adbullah Anderson (433 snaps), who was solid in a rotational role last season with a 62.8 PFF grade, is no longer with the team, but the Falcons still have Ta’Quon Graham (471 snaps), who figures to be their top reserve this season behind Jarrett and Onyemata. A 5th round pick in 2021, Graham isn’t much of a pass rusher, with a 4.5% pressure rate in two seasons in the league, but he improved significantly as a run defender from year one to year two, with a 50.8 PFF grade against the run as a rookie and a much improved 73.6 last season. It’s possible he could regress as a run defender going forward, but he could easily remain a useful rotational player, especially in base packages, and it wouldn’t be a surprise if he got a little better as a pass rusher as well. He’s good depth to have.
The wild card of the group is Eddie Goldman, a veteran who is back after retiring for the 2022 season. Goldman was one of the best interior defenders in the league in 2018 with the Bears, with a 87.3 PFF grade on 552 snaps, and he’s still only going into his age 29 season, but his career took a sharp downturn, as he fell to 70.7 on PFF on 467 snaps in 2019, sat out the 2020 season during COVID restrictions, and then was horrendous upon his return in 2021, with a 39.8 PFF grade on 336 snaps, leading to the Bears releasing him. The Falcons took a flier on him, but he abruptly retired in the middle of the off-season, before unretiring at season’s end.
Goldman is apparently committed to the Falcons for 2023 and he’s still relatively young and has some upside, but it’s hard to know what to expect from a player who hasn’t even shown decent play in four years and who has sat out two of the past three seasons. He’ll compete for a deep reserve role, with his primary competition being Timmy Horne, a 2022 undrafted free agent who struggled mightily on 385 snaps as a rookie with a 47.4 PFF grade, but who could theoretically be better in year two and who could continue having a rotational role if Goldman can’t re-establish himself in the NFL. Jarrett and Onyemata are both over 30, as is Campbell, who figures to see a lot of snaps on the interior in sub packages, but all three could remain above average players and the addition of the latter two should be a big boost for this position group, which needed one.
Grade: B
Linebackers
At the linebacker position, the Falcons’ big off-season addition was another former Saint, Kaden Elliss, who came over from the division rival on a 3-year, 21.5 million dollar deal. He’s essentially a replacement with free agent departure Rashaan Evans, who played 1,104 snaps last season to lead this linebacking corps. Elliss might not play quite that many snaps, but Evans was pretty mediocre with a 59.6 PFF grade last season, so it wouldn’t be hard for Elliss to be an upgrade and to be more impactful, even on a likely smaller snap count.
Elliss was only a 7th round pick in 2019 and only played 197 defensive snaps across his first three seasons in the league, as primarily a special teamer, but he always flashed potential on defense in limited action and ended up playing 632 snaps in his 4th season in the league in 2022, which led to a breakout season, as he finished with PFF’s 6th highest grade among linebackers at 81.5, playing well in coverage and against the run, but especially excelling as a pass rusher, both as a blitzer and as a sub package edge defender, totaling 7 sacks, 4 hits, and a 19.4% pressure rate in a limited pass rush role. He’s a one-year wonder who might not be quite as good in 2023 as he was in 2022, but he still figures to be an upgrade on Evans and is well-rounded enough to play every down.
Mykal Walker (769 snaps) and Troy Andersen (481 snaps) also saw significant snap counts last season and remain on the team, so they figure to continue seeing significant roles, especially with Elliss unlikely to play as many snaps as Evans did. Walker was the better of the two, but he still wasn’t great, finishing with a 58.7 PFF grade, a disappointment because the 2020 4th round pick flashed a lot of potential as a reserve in his first two seasons in the league, with a 74.0 PFF grade on 387 snaps as a rookie and a 71.3 grade on 194 snaps in his second season in the league in 2021.
Walker is still only going into his age 26 season and could be better in what would be his second season as a starter if he manages to keep the job, but it’s also possible he never translates the promise he showed as a reserve into a larger role. Andersen, meanwhile, was also a disappointment last season, managing just a 40.2 PFF grade, despite being a second round pick. He was also a rookie and still could easily develop into a solid starter long-term, so it wouldn’t be a surprise if he took a step forward in year two, but he could still continue struggling and I would guess that Walker remains ahead of him on the depth chart for now, leaving Andersen in a more limited role. Replacing Rashaan Evans with Kaden Elliss improves this group a lot, but they’re still not a great linebacking corps.
Grade: B
Secondary
In the secondary, the Falcons’ big addition was safety Jessie Bates, who came over from the Bengals on a 4-year, 64.02 million dollar deal. That contract makes Bates the 3rd highest paid safety in the league in average annual salary, but, when he’s at his best, he’s well worth it. A 2nd round pick in 2018 and a 5-year starter (79 of a possible 82 starts), Bates was PFF’s 12th ranked safety as a rookie with a 79.9 grade, their 1st ranked safety in 2020 with a 90.1 grade, and their 13th ranked safety in 2022 with a 76.8 grade, but he’s been pretty inconsistent, which is why he was available in free agency. In his other two seasons, 2019 and 2021, he finished with PFF grades of 61.2 and 56.1 respectively.
Bates fared well on the franchise tag last season, but his struggles in the final year of his rookie deal in 2021 led to the Bengals not extending him a long-term contract last off-season, opting for the short-term franchise tag instead. Bates is still only going into his age 27 season and has an upside that is as high as any safety in the league, but he doesn’t always play to his potential and it’s possible he’ll do so even less now that he’s gotten paid on a big contract. Still, Bates is an obvious upgrade on incumbent safety Jaylinn Hawkins, who had a 59.8 PFF grade last season in 16 starts, his 3rd straight season below 60 to start his career since going in the 4th round in 2020. Hawkins will now be the 3rd safety at best, with fellow incumbent Richie Grant expected to keep his starting job.
Grant is going into his second season as a starter, as the 2021 2nd round pick played 276 nondescript snaps as a rookie, before taking a step forward as a 17-game starter in 2022, receiving a 64.9 PFF grade and playing all but 5 defensive snaps all season. Grant is already going into his age 26 season, but it wouldn’t be a surprise if he had further untapped upside and took another step forward in his third season in the league in 2023. Even if he doesn’t, he should remain a solid starter at the very least.
The Falcons also added cornerbacks Mike Hughes and Jeffrey Okudah this off-season, a pair of former Lions, the former coming in on a 2-year, 7 million dollar deal and the latter being added in a trade for a 5th round pick, giving the Falcons some stability at a position where six different players played at least 200 snaps last season. AJ Terrell and Casey Hayward were their week one outside starting cornerbacks and they finished the 2021 season 3rd and 16th among cornerbacks on PFF with grades of 82.6 and 76.0 respectively, Hayward doing so with the Raiders.
However, in 2022, Hayward was limited to 355 snaps in 6 games and a 64.7 PFF grade by injuries, while Terrell suffered injuries of his own and fell to 63.9 on 800 snaps in 14 games. Terrell is still on the team and, while the 2020 1st round pick is a one-year wonder in terms of playing at the level he played at in 2021, he’s still only going into his age 25 season and his 4th season in the league and, even if he doesn’t bounce all the way back to his 2021 level of play, he has a good shot to be an above average starter in 2023 and beyond. Hayward, on the other hand, was a free agent this off-season ahead of his age 34 season and, as a result, was not retained.
With Hayward gone, expect Hughes and Okudah to be the other two cornerbacks with Terrell in sub packages. Darren Hall (633 snaps), Cornell Armstrong (372 snaps), and Dee Alford (246 snaps) also saw action last season and are still on the team, but only Hall is a real candidate to win a top-3 cornerback job, as the 2021 4th round pick had a 65.5 PFF grade last season, after struggling on 283 snaps as a rookie. Alford was also decent last season (64.8 PFF grade), but the 2022 undrafted free agent barely saw much action and would be a projection to a larger role.
Armstrong, on the other hand, struggled with a 57.2 PFF grade, unsurprising for a player who has never finished above 60 on PFF in five seasons in the league. Hall and Alford are likely to provide solid depth, but, most likely, it will be Terrell, Hughes, and Okudah as the top-3 cornerbacks, with Terrell as the top cornerback and Hughes and Okudah competing for roles behind him, in their first season with the team after being added from the Lions this off-season.
Okudah was the 3rd overall pick in the 2020 NFL Draft by the Lions, but he struggled mightily with a 42.5 PFF grade on 460 snaps as a rookie and then missed almost all of his second season with injury (48 snaps) and, while he was able to return to make 15 starts in 2022, he received just a 59.4 grade from PFF, so it’s not surprising the Lions declined his 5th year option and traded him ahead of the final year of his rookie deal for relatively minimal compensation. Okudah is only going into his age 24 season though and may still have further untapped upside, in his 4th season in the league, another year removed from his injury, with a chance of scenery with a new team. That’s far from a guarantee and he could continue to struggle, but it wouldn’t be a surprise at all if he had his best year yet in 4th and developed into at least a solid starter long-term.
Hughes is also a former first round pick, selected 30th overall by the Vikings in 2018. Hughes showed some promise early in his career, but was very inconsistent and injuries limited him to just 24 of a possible 48 games in his first three seasons in the league, leading to the Vikings trading him for cheap to the Chiefs after just three seasons. With the Chiefs, Hughes flourished as a part-time player, staying healthy and posting a 79.6 PFF grade on 509 snaps in 17 games.
However, Hughes signed a one-year deal with the Lions last off-season and was not as good in a similar role, with a 59.9 PFF grade on 561 snaps in 16 games. Hughes is still only going into his age 26 season, but he’s still never played more than the 561 snaps he played last season, so while he has upside and is fairly young, he has a history of injury and inconsistency that have prevented him from ever being a season long starter. The Falcons will give him a chance to, but it’s possible he could lose his job to a reserve like Darren Hall. With Hughes, Okudah, and especially Jessie Bates being added, this secondary is much improved this off-season, much like most of this defense, which is a welcome sight for a defense that was one of the worst in the league a year ago.
Grade: B
Conclusion
A year ago, the Falcons had a solid offense (13th in DVOA) and a horrible defense (30th in DVOA). This year, their defense looks much improved after off-season additions like safety Jessie Bates, linebacker Kaden Elliss, interior defender David Onyemata, and edge defender Calais Campbell, all of whom should be above average starters, while their offense looks similar to a year ago, with a dominant running game and offensive line and a very underwhelming passing game.
They could remain a solid offense again, which, paired with an improved defense, could make the Falcons a decent team, but rushing performance is much less predictable and predictive year-to-year than passing performance and the Falcons probably need an unexpected big improvement from quarterback Desmond Ridder to be more than a decent team. They could still make the post-season, by virtue of their weak division, but even that’s not a guarantee and they are unlikely to make much noise once they get there if they happen to make it. I will have a final prediction at the end of the off-season when all previews are completed.
Prediction: 8-9, 2nd in NFC South
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