News

Beanie Wells injures hamstring in practice, Cardinals list him as questionable

stevenlourie Cardinals, News

The Cardinals, unfortunately, had to update their injury report to including Beanie Wells after he hurt his hamstring in Friday’s practice. He is listed as questionable and will probably be a game time decision. Wells certainly has an injury history and missed most of this offseason with knee problems, so this is not a good sign as he tries to hold off the now healthy 2011 2nd round pick Ryan Williams, who outplayed him in the preseason, for the starting running back job.

If Wells can’t go, Williams will see the bulk of the carries against Seattle and he’s probably the superior back so they might not miss Wells much. If Williams were to get the start, he’d be fantasy startable, even with a tough matchup. The problem is that this game is a 4 o’clock start and since it’s a game time decision, owners of Wells and Williams probably won’t know until many of the alternatives have already started. If you start Wells and he doesn’t play, your options to replace him will be limited, and vice versa if you start Williams and Wells does play. The Seahawks have a very stout run defense, 4th in the league last year, so it’s advisable to stay away from Arizona’s backfield this week.

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Texans expect Arian Foster, Brooks Reed to be a game time decision

stevenlourie News, Texans

No team is a bigger favorite this week than the Texans, who are 12 point favorites at home over the Miami Dolphins. This is with good reason. The Texans won 10 games and made it to the AFC’s divisional round, despite Andre Johnson missing 9 games and Matt Schaub missing the final 7, including playoffs (they were 8-3 and had the league’s best Pythagorean Expectation when he went down). The Dolphins, meanwhile, won just 6 games last year and are starting a raw quarterback in Ryan Tannehill, who has 19 collegiate starts. They also traded away their only good wide receiver Brandon Marshall this offseason and have some problems on the offensive line. Defensively, they switched schemes to one that several of their key players don’t fit as well (Jared Odrick, Paul Soliai, and possibly Cameron Wake) and traded away their #1 cornerback, Vontae Davis, to the Colts.

However, the Texans could be without 2 key contributors when they face Miami as Arian Foster and Brooks Reed both injured themselves in practice this week. They’ll both be game time decisions. These are obviously both big losses, as Arian Foster has rushed for 2840 yards and 23 touchdowns on 605 carries over the last two seasons, while catching 119 passes for 1221 yards and another 4 scores. Brooks Reed, meanwhile, had a very strong rookie year last year, with 10 sacks, 6 quarterback hits, and 26 quarterback pressures on 471 pass rush snaps, good for an 8.9% rate. He also played the run very well.

However, the Texans may hold both out against such a weak opponent, rather than risk further injury. Besides, they have the depth to make up for it. The Texans used a 1st round pick on a rush linebacker in Whitney Mercilus, who I thought was the draft class’ best pure pass rusher. He’d step into the lineup for Reed. Meanwhile, #2 running back Ben Tate rushed for 942 yards and 4 touchdowns on 175 carries last season, including 398 yards and 2 scores on 82 carries in 4 starts in Foster’s absence last season. This is a 1 o’clock start game season fantasy owners of Foster and Tate will know whether or not to start their back before the deadline for rosters to be set.

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Seahawks expect Marshawn Lynch to be a game time decision

stevenlourie News, Seahawks

Marshawn Lynch escaped suspension, at least for now, after being arrested for DUI this offseason, but he could still miss week 1 after his back spasms flared up again. A recurring injury, they cost Lynch one game last season and limited him throughout the preseason. If he can’t go, Robert Turbin, a 4th round rookie, would get the start.

The Seahawks need him out there, even against the lowly Cardinals. The Seahawks have a below average receiving corps and are pretty weak on the offensive line and, as good as Russell Wilson looked in the preseason, it’s important to remember that he’s still a 3rd round rookie making his 1st career start. They’re also a poor road team, going 11-31 on the road since 2007, so they shouldn’t take the Cardinals lightly in Arizona, even as bad as their quarterbacks looked this preseason. The Cardinals, like the Seahawks, have a good young defense and might be able to pull the upset at home, especially if Lynch misses the game.

As for fantasy football, this is unfortunately a 4 o’clock game so if Lynch can’t go, your options will be limited to replace him. It’s recommended that all Lynch owners pick up Robert Turbin if he’s available. Not only would Turbin get the start if Lynch, who has an inconsistent history, misses any time this year, Turbin will eat into Lynch’s carries a little even if he’s healthy. The Seahawks really like the 4th round rookie and figure to run the ball a lot this year, supported by a strong defense, with a mobile rookie quarterback under center with a poor receiving corps.

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Browns expect Trent Richardson to start, but may limit his carries

stevenlourie Browns, News

Trent Richardson had 2 knee surgeries this offseason, including one just about a month ago, but he’s still expected to start this week against the Eagles. However, the Browns may limit his carries after he was limited in practice all week. Montario Hardesty will be the beneficiary of Richardson ceding any carries on early downs, while 3rd down specialist Brandon Jackson will continue to serve in that role.

Still, it’s not a good sign that he’s had two surgeries and rookie running backs have trouble adjusting to the 16 game workload of the NFL historically anyway. 1st round pick running backs have averaged just 165 carries as rookies since 2007. Richardson will probably exceed that number, but I’m not all that hopeful, at least for his rookie year, especially on an offense that figures to be stagnant with so many rookies and 2nd year players playing big roles (6 of 11 offensive starters are in their 1st or 2nd year and that doesn’t include Josh Gordon and Jordan Cameron, who could be starters eventually and Travis Benjamin, who will start the season as their slot receiver). For this week, he’s a borderline starter in fantasy leagues, especially since Philadelphia has the potential offensively to make Cleveland have to abandon the run early.

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Steelers’ rule James Harrison, Rashard Mendenhall out for week 1

stevenlourie News, Steelers

The Steelers will attempt to get revenge on the Broncos’ for last year’s playoff defeat this week. While a lot of the focus will be on Peyton Manning as he attempts to return from injury, the Steelers have some injuries of their own. Right guard David DeCastro could be out for the season with a torn MCL. Running back Isaac Redman is expected to be limited, possibly all year, by groin, hip, and ankle injuries. Safety Ryan Clark will miss this game, as he does all games in Denver, because of a genetic disorder that makes it unsafe for him to do extreme physical activities in high altitude (he had to have his spleen and gall bladder removed following a game in Denver several years ago and hasn’t played there since).

Along with Clark, two other players will miss this game. Rashard Mendenhall was surprisingly activated off the active/PUP list a couple of weeks ago, even though everyone, even GM Kevin Colbert, believed he’d begin the season on that list and miss the first 6 weeks. Though he practiced in limited bits this week, he won’t play this week and still might not play until after their week 4 bye, which was the team’s prognosis after activating him. This week, Redman will start, but, even though he has just 22 career carries, Jonathan Dwyer, now finally in shape, might be their best option.

James Harrison, meanwhile, was expected to play this week after having knee surgery last month, but apparently had a setback so he won’t go. Jason Worilds will start in his absence. Worilds did his best Harrison impression, at least as a pass rusher, with 3 sacks, 7 quarterback hits, and 20 quarterback pressures on 204 pass rush snaps last year with Harrison missing some time, a very impressive rate of 14.7%.

The Steelers have had a top-3 scoring defense 6 times since 2004 an had the league’s #1 scoring defense last year despite just 15 turnovers and a bunch of injuries. They should have better health defensively this season (although this isn’t a great start) and they should have more turnovers. Since 2002, 38 teams have had 20 or fewer takeaways in a season. Those teams had, on average, 7.53 more takeaways and won 1.41 more games the following season. They’ll still prove to be a very tough test for Peyton Manning in his first start back from injury. They won’t let him ease back into regular season action.

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Panthers expect Jonathan Stewart to be a game time decision

stevenlourie News, Panthers

Jonathan Stewart sprained his ankle in the Panthers’ final preseason game over a week ago, but even though it wasn’t a high ankle sprain, Stewart still did not practice all week and will be a game time decision for their game against the Tampa Bay Buccaneers. This is especially frustrating for Stewart’s fantasy owners, because it’s a 4 o’clock start instead of a 1 o’clock start, meaning your options will be much more limited if you put him in your lineup and he’s ruled out before the game.

Stewart normally plays through minor injuries (as injury prone as his reputation would make him seem, he’s missed just 2 of 64 career games) and that’s why he’s a game time decision without practicing. However, the Panthers have plenty of other running backs and can definitely get away with starting DeAngelo Williams, with “fullback” Mike Tolbert as his primary backup this week, so they may shut Stewart down and try to preserve him for the rest of the season.

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Lions to be without Louis Delmas, Chris Houston against Rams

stevenlourie Lions, News

The Lions had one of the worst defenses in the league last year, allowing 24.2 points per game, good for 23rd in the NFL. Their awful passing defense was a big part of that and things aren’t going to be much better this season, especially not week 1. Having lost starter Eric Wright to the Buccaneers in free agency alright this offseason and cutting his replacement Aaron Berry for off the field issues, the Lions will now be without Louis Delmas and Chris Houston against the Rams this week, their only two remaining competent starters.

This leaves Jacob Lacey, Bill Bentley, John Wendling, and Erik Coleman starting in the secondary for the Lions, with Drayton Florence operating as the nickel back. Lacey struggled as a starter in Indianapolis last year. Bentley is a 3rd round rookie. John Wendling is a career journeyman backup and Coleman is a veteran who has been a backup in Atlanta over the last few seasons. Florence, meanwhile, was cut twice this offseason, first by the Bills and then by the Broncos, who made him a final cut. He’s only been with the Lions about a week.

The Lions have a ferocious pass rush, but even that won’t make this secondary look very good. Sam Bradford might not be the best quarterback, but this is about as easy of a matchup as he’ll get and with Steven Jackson by his side, the Rams should be able to run effectively on a Lions’ defense that ranked 30th on the ground last year. That will help the Rams move the football and take some off the pressure off an underrated offensive line in pass protection. The Lions, meanwhile, will have their explosive offense limited by the Rams equally good defensive line, against a decent Lions’ offensive line, and the Rams’ significantly superior secondary.  There’s a chance the Rams could pull out this victory.

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Vikings expect Adrian Peterson to play, but will limit his carries

stevenlourie News, Vikings

The Vikings and the Jaguars have two of the best running backs in the NFL, Adrian Peterson and Maurice Jones-Drew. However, when those two teams meet in Minnesota this week, neither of those two aforementioned backs figure to have much of an impact. Maurice Jones-Drew will be limited to 3rd down work about a week after returning from his 38 day holdout, while Adrian Peterson is about 9 months removed from a torn ACL. The Vikings expect him to play, but he’ll be limited to a backup role behind capable back Toby Gerhart until he gets his legs back under him.

Adrian Peterson’s speedy recovery from such a severe injury is impressive, but maybe not even surprising from someone like Peterson and it’s not unprecedented either. Wes Welker returned for week 1 from a similar injury for the 2010 season after just 8 months. However, it’s worth noting that Welker was not his normal self that year. He caught just 86 passes for 848 yards, both his lowest totals in his 5 year career with the New England Patriots. It’s unrealistic to expect Peterson to be his normal self until at least the 2nd half of the season (Welker’s 2nd half stats were much better as he caught 42 passes for 493 yards), if at all this season.

For that reason and others, it’s a bit head scratching why the Vikings are bringing him back so soon. Toby Gerhart is a capable runner who should be able to carry the load until Peterson is fully healthy and truly ready to play and the Vikings probably aren’t going to be competitive this year either way. This is a team built for the future and Peterson, still only 27, is expected to be a big part of it. They can’t afford to risk him reinjuring himself. Besides, he still has about 28 million guaranteed on his contract after the season as his massive extension just kicked in. They want to make sure they get the most out of that money.

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Jaguars will limit Maurice Jones-Drew to 3rd down work this week

stevenlourie Jaguars, News

Maurice Jones-Drew has returned from his holdout and will suit up for the Jaguars this week, but anyone expecting him to be worth a fantasy start is going to be severely disappointed. According to Head Coach Mike Mularkey, Rashad Jennings, who was named the week 1 starter before MJD returned, will handle most of the early down work, limiting Maurice Jones-Drew to 3rd down work.

When asked about whether Jennings would carry the load or not, Mularkey said, “That’s kind of the way the system works, yes,” referring to having the starter do most of the early down work and having his primary backup handle 3rd downs. It’s how he handled things in Pittsburgh and Atlanta and it’s how he’ll handle things in Jacksonville. Once MJD regains his starting job, he’ll be the beneficiary of the system and handle most of the early down work, but until then, he’ll see very few carries and it’ll limit his fantasy potential severely against a Minnesota run defense that ranked 6th in the league last year.

This is probably the smart move because Jennings showed himself to be a solid back during the preseason and MJD’s situation has so many similarities to Chris Johnson’s last year, down to when they reported, the situation with new coaching staffs coming in, and their usage in the past 3 years, that I would be skeptical about his ability to carry the load early in the season. Chris Johnson averaged 3.0 YPC last season in the first 8 games, before showing his old form and averaging 4.8 YPC in the final 8.

Nonetheless, the Jaguars will be hurt offensively be the lack of the 2011 form of MJD early in the season. Jennings is a nice back and MJD at less than 100% is not too bad, but MJD had 47.7% of the team’s yards from scrimmage last season, most by any non-quarterback since OJ Simpson in 1974. Any improvements Blaine Gabbert and the passing game made this offseason should be nullified by their relative “struggles” on the ground.

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Chiefs’ Derrick Johnson, Brandon Flowers, Jovan Belcher all expected to be game time decisions

stevenlourie Chiefs, News

Already missing top pass rusher Tamba Hali with suspension, the Chiefs have 3 other defensive starters who will be game time decisions this week against the Falcons. Hali’s loss is probably going to be the biggest as he’s been their only consistent pass rusher over the past 3 years (though 2nd year player Justin Houston looked great down the stretch in 7 starts last year). However, his loss won’t be the only significant one.

Flowers been a top-8 cornerback on ProFootballFocus in each of the last 3 seasons, something only Champ Bailey and Darrelle Revis can also say. Last year was his worst year as he ranked 8th and though he did play really well, he also surrendered some big plays. He allowed 46 completions on 86 attempts (53.5%) for 667 yards (7.8 YPA), 8 touchdowns and 4 interceptions, while deflecting 8 passes and committing 5 penalties. Johnson, meanwhile, was ProFootballFocus’ 4th rated middle linebacker last year and Jovan Belcher is a talented two-down run stuffer at middle linebacker.

All of these injuries and potential injuries will make it very hard for the Chiefs to win this week. Their game plan is based on playing good defense, running the ball well, and making live easy for limited quarterback Matt Cassel. Missing so many key guys, it’ll be tough for them to play good defense against an Atlanta offense that looked very good in the preseason, backing up what many people felt before the preseason, that Matt Ryan and company were about to make the leap with Julio Jones, Roddy White, and Tony Gonzalez. That’s going to make it tough for the Chiefs to follow their conservative game plan and will force Matt Cassel to have to do more than they would like.

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