News

Bengals expect to be without Carlos Dunlap, Jason Allen, Dre Kirkpatrick and Bernard Scott

stevenlourie Bengals, News

The regular season has not yet begun, but the injuries have started piling up for the Bengals. After putting two starters on the offensive line on IR before the season, Travelle Wharton and Kyle Cook (though the latter can be reactivated later this season), the Bengals are expected to be without 4 key contributors with injury for their week 1 battle with the Baltimore Ravens as Carlos Dunlap, Jason Allen, Dre Kirkpatrick, and Bernard Scott are all expected to miss.

Kirkpatrick’s and Allen’s absence will force Nate Clements, in his age 33 season, to start opposite Leon Hall. Hall, meanwhile, probably won’t be 100% just 10 months after tearing his Achilles. Including playoffs, they allowed 23.8 points per game in their final 9 games without Hall, as opposed to 17.5 points per game in their first 8 games with Hall last season. Obviously having him 100% would be a huge boost for them, but I can’t see him being 100%, at least not this week.

Dunlap’s absence hurts because the Bengals already lost Frostee Rucker and Jonathan Fanene as free agents this offseason. They love rotation on the defensive line and those two were key parts of that rotation. They’ll be replaced by the mediocre Jamaal Anderson and Devon Still, a 2nd round rookie playing out of position. With Dunlap miss this game, that means that Anderson will have to will the top reserve behind Michael Johnson and Robert Geathers, two decent, but unspectacular players.

Dunlap was spectacular last year. In fact, was one of the best pass rushers in the league last year. Dunlap managed 5 sacks, 13 quarterback hits, and 29 quarterback pressures, on 302 pass rush snaps, a pass rush rate of 15.6%.  Given their troubles in the secondary, the Bengals have to get pass rush to have any chance of stopping the Ravens’ passing attack, but I don’t think that will happen.

Meanwhile, Bernard Scott’s absence means that BenJarvus Green-Ellis will have the carry the load against Baltimore’s stout run defense. BJGE is good at running through holes and not fumbling, but he averaged just 3.7 YPC last year and ranked just 61st out of 67 eligible backs in yards after contact per carry with 2.0. That was in New England, with Tom Brady making life easy for the running backs. Andy Dalton is not Tom Brady, so BJGE will find very little running room, especially with the Bengals missing two starting interior offensive lineman against a great run defense like the Bengals’. The Bengals will have a lot of trouble running the ball this week.

All of these injuries definitely hurt for a Bengals team that didn’t beat a single playoff team last year (0-8, including playoffs). Andy Dalton regressed as last season went on and especially struggled against playoff teams and that regression appeared to continue during the preseason. Against a Baltimore team that beat them twice last year, en route to 12 victories, they’re going to have a tough time. The Ravens also were 9-0 last year at home in Baltimore, where this game is played, including playoffs.

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Suspensions in Saints’ bounty scandal overturned

stevenlourie News, Saints

In possibly the most shocking story of the offseason, with two days to go before their season opener against the Redskins, the Saints found out yesterday that the players suspended in their bounty scandal would be reinstated as the suspensions were overturned by an appeals court. The coaches and front office members who were originally suspended will still be suspended, but the appeals court determined that the NFL did not have enough evidence to suspend the players, in what has to be one of the biggest challenges to his authority in Roger Goodell’s tenure as NFL Commissioner. Goodell and the rest of the NFL front office will now have to come up with sufficient evidence to suspend the players allegedly involved, if they chose to continue to try to discipline those players they believe are guilty of wrongdoing.

While this is obviously a huge moral victory for the players, especially Jonathan Vilma, the most vocal protestor of the suspensions and a player who was set to miss the entire season with suspension, the timing is still bittersweet. Vilma has been away from the team for most of the offseason with a new defensive coaching staff coming in, has been replaced by free agents David Hawthorne and Curtis Lofton, and has had 3 knee surgeries since November, so he’s not only in no position to make any kind of early season impact, but he’s no longer really needed by the team.

The Saints placed Vilma, a declining 30 year old player, on the reserve/PUP list, which means he’ll have to sit out at least the first 6 games of the season. He’ll get to collect game checks, which he wouldn’t have ordinarily been able to, but his chances of making any positive impact for the Saints this season is pretty limited. ProFootballFocus’ 51st ranked middle linebacker out of 53 in 2011, Vilma is owed 5.9 million next season and, after taking a pay cut just to stay on the roster this season, this year might be his last in a Saints uniform, if he even plays at all. Still with a stigma attached to his name, whether the allegations are true or not, it’ll be interesting to see if he would get any interest on the open market as a 31 year old next offseason.

As for Will Smith, he was only going to be suspended for 4 games, so he’s been practicing with the team and does have a chance to suit up for the Saints this weekend. Smith wasn’t great last season, with 7 sacks, 7 quarterback hits, and 34 quarterback pressures on 630 pass rush snaps, including playoffs, a respectable, but not great 9.2% pass rush rate, but this team was the league’s worst rated pass rushing team last season in terms of pass rush productivity (sacks + .75 hits + .75 pressures/total pass rush snaps). They may have had 33 sacks, not a terrible number, but they blitzed more than any team in the league to do even that. With Smith, Junior Galette, a talented situational pass rusher last season, 2nd year player Cameron Jordan, and defensive coordinator Steve Spagnuolo, who is great with pass rushers, the Saints may have enough to take advantage of a Redskins offensive line that looked terrible in the preseason and ranked 28th in pass blocking efficiency last season.

Anthony Hargrove, another suspended player, is currently not on a roster after being cut by the Packers last month, while Scott Fujita is the only formerly suspended player currently on a roster other than the Saints’. Fujita was set to miss the first 3 games of the season and has not practiced all week, but the Browns may start him out of desperation. Missing starter Chris Gocong and top reserve James-Michael Johnson, the Browns were originally going to start undrafted rookie LJ Fort and career backup and special teamer Kaluka Maiava at 2 of their 3 linebacker spot this week, which would have put them at a major disadvantage against a tough matchup in the Eagles.

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Redskins won’t name starting running back

stevenlourie Commanders, News

Redskins’ Head Coach Mike Shanahan loves a murky running back situation. He loves his opponents not to know what kind of back they’ll have to game plan against and he loves to be able to switch running backs depending on the matchup. It’s a smart football philosophy, but it creates a wasteland in fantasy leagues. Alfred Morris, Evan Royster, and Roy Helu all will probably start at some point this season and not just that, any of those 3 could start this week. I’d also be willing to be bet that a running back not currently on the Redskins’ roster (Steve Slaton? Tim Hightower? Ryan Torain?) will get a start for the team this season.

Shanahan has one of his murkiest running back situations ever this season. Not only do we not know who the starter will be, as Shanahan refused to name one publicly, preferring to “keep them guessing,” the players themselves don’t seem to know either. Evan Royster, one of the candidates, says “I think they’re going to keep us pretty much in the dark until probably the day before the game.” That may be a smoke screen, but former Redskin Chris Cooley, who has no reason to lie on behalf of the organization that cut him last month, says that he didn’t know who the starter would be last season on a weekly basis.

Cooley recounts a story to CBS Washington about last season saying “I walked up to Torain in the locker room and said, ‘Dude, you’re starting on my fantasy team this week. And I’m hoping for a big week. I’m playing my wife,’ and he’s like, ‘Oh, cool man. Yeah, I’ll see what I can do.” Roy Helu started and totaled 141 yards. “I’m in the locker room and I don’t know who’s starting,” Cooley continued. “So, it’s kind of a mix up and I’m not exactly sure what we’re doing or who’s going in.”

The signs would point to Alfred Morris getting the start. The Washington Post believes he’s the “probable” starter according to “several people with knowledge of the situation.” Morris got the start in the 3rd week of the preseason and those are normally the week 1 starters barring injury. He impressed, rushing for 107 yards and a touchdown on 14 carries. Morris also did not play the following week, when Shanahan rested his starters. Both Royster and Helu did play.

Though Morris is technically listed as the 3rd string back behind Royster and Helu, it’s really anyone’s job and Morris’ performance in the 3rd preseason game would suggest he’s the “hot hand,” and offensive coordinator Kyle Shanahan said they’d be going with that approach this season. It’s definitely not ideal to be starting any of these backs in fantasy this week as two of them won’t see much work, but if you have to start one, Morris seems like the guy. Whoever starts has a nice matchup against a New Orleans run defense that ranked 29th last season and Robert Griffin’s running ability will open things up for the starting running back on the ground, much in the way Michael Vick does for LeSean McCoy, Vince Young once did for Chris Johnson, and Tim Tebow once did for Willis McGahee. Whoever starts is a RB2/Flex, but it’s risky.

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Bengals sign Jeff Faine as insurance for Kyle Cook

stevenlourie Bengals, News

After center Kyle Cook saw a foot specialist early in the week, the Bengals brought in Jeff Faine for a visit as insurance for Cook, whose initial prognosis did not look good. After the Bengals signed Faine, Cook’s prognosis isn’t looking any better. According to the Cincinnati Enquirer, “indications are” he’ll miss a “large amount of time,” possibly even the whole season.

Cook had a down year last season after signing a 4 year, 14 million dollar extension last offseason, but he was ProFootballFocus’ 10th rated center in 2011 and he’s overall had a solid career. He’ll definitely be missed, especially if the replacement is Jeff Faine. Faine was released by the Buccaneers in March and tellingly hadn’t made a single other visit this offseason. Though I suppose the move was necessary because their other option was 2010 7th round pick Reggie Stephens, who had yet to play an NFL snap. The Bengals don’t really seem to believe in him.

Faine is heading into his age 31 season and was ProFootballFocus’ 31st ranked center out of 35 last season, especially struggling as a run blocker. The Bengals have also lost left guard Travelle Wharton for the season and 2011 4th round rookie Clint Boling will start in his absence. He played just 172 snaps last season and really struggled. Injuries on the interior offensive line are yet another reason why the Bengals will regress off their 9-win season this year.

If you’re interested in doing a fantasy football league with me, here’s the link (standard league, draft day Sunday at 3 PM ET, 2 spots left). http://msn.foxsports.com/fantasy/football/commissioner/Registration/Private.aspx?league=55086&password=FanSpot2

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Steelers’ rookie Sean Spence tears ACL, LCL, and dislocates kneecap

stevenlourie News, Steelers

This is not a good year to be a Steelers rookie. 1st round selection David DeCastro tore his MCL last week and 3rd round selection Sean Spence tore his ACL, LCL, and dislocated his kneecap in the Steelers’ final preseason game. Unlikely DeCastro, who will be kept on the roster in hopes of playing in December and later, Spence looks like an obvious candidate for IR, which means we won’t see him at all today.

What originally looked like a very strong draft class for the Steelers has taken some hits. DeCastro and Spence have been hurt, while 2nd round pick Mike Adams really struggled on the blindside this preseason. DeCastro should be fine long term, but Spence is an undersized player at 5-11 231, so he can’t afford to lose any speed. A favorite of mine during draft season for his speed, coverage abilities, and hustle, Spence was ticketed for a big special teams role as a rookie and could have emerged as a coverage linebacker later in the season. With marginal starting middle linebacker Larry Foote heading into his age 33 season in 2013, middle linebacker will be a primary need of the Steelers’ this offseason.

If you’re interested in doing a fantasy football league with me, here’s the link (standard league, draft day Sunday at 3 PM ET, 2 spots left). http://msn.foxsports.com/fantasy/football/commissioner/Registration/Private.aspx?league=55086&password=FanSpot2

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Isaiah Pead and Daryl Richardson to split backup duties for Rams at running back

stevenlourie News, Rams

The St. Louis Rams used a 2nd round pick on Isaiah Pead in the 2012 NFL Draft, but it’s a different rookie running back who has outperformed him this preseason and Training Camp, Daryl Richardson, a 7th round pick out of Abilene Christian University. In the preseason, Richardson rushed for 126 yards on 31 carries, as opposed to 108 yards on 35 carries for Pead, who has reportedly frustrated the coaching staff with his unwillingness to run north/south. As a result, according to Fox Sports Midwest, the pair of rookies will split backup duties behind Steven Jackson.

It’s good news for Steven Jackson that Pead was unable to pose a serious threat to his workload. Definitely getting into the twilight of his career, Jackson is 29 years old and has 2138 career carries. However, he’s a very talented back and history suggests that he might have one more good season in him. I did a study on how elite running backs age. I took all of the top-25 all-time leading rushers who have played in the last decade and found that the average one has his last 1000 yard season in his age 30 season at 2602 carrier carries. Jackson currently 32nd all time in rushing yards and 1180 yards outside of the top 25 so he fits in this class of players, though I’d call him slightly below the average of the group. It wouldn’t be ridiculous and unprecedented for him to have one more big season.

However, it’s also possible he won’t and the fall could be hard for him. After the players in my study had their final 1000 yard season, they average just 169 carries per season at 3.5 yards per carry and just 5 touchdowns, so they’re really a non-factor as a back. If that happens, the Rams better hope that Pead and Richardson can be ready for significant snaps. In fantasy leagues, Jackson does have some upside outside of the first 3 rounds because of how weak this year is for running backs, but he’s got a clear downside and there’s no true handcuff for him anymore with Pead and Richardson sharing backup duties. This news is good news for his fantasy value because as long as he’s healthy, he should get the kind of workload he’s used to, but also bad because, if he gets hurt, there’s no obvious pickup to replace him with.

If you’re interested in doing a fantasy football league with me, here’s the link (standard league, draft day Sunday at 3 PM ET, 2 spots left). http://msn.foxsports.com/fantasy/football/commissioner/Registration/Private.aspx?league=55086&password=FanSpot2

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Ankle injury to Chiefs’ Derrick Johnson could be “significant”

stevenlourie Chiefs, News

Already missing Tamba Hali for the opener with suspension, this is not what the Chiefs wanted to hear. According to the Kansas City Star, the ankle injury suffered by Derrick Johnson in the Chiefs’ preseason finale “could be significant” and he could be “doubtful” for week 1. It’s head scratching why Johnson was even out there in a game normally reserved for well…reserves. Missing Tamba Hali and Derrick Johnson would obviously be a big loss for them week 1. Hali was ProFootballFocus’ 4th ranked rush linebacker last season and responsible for 12 of the team’s 27 sacks, while Derrick Johnson ranked 4th at middle linebacker. Without those two, their depth at linebacker is awfully suspect.

They may find themselves overmatched defensively against a Falcons offense that has looked incredibly explosive this preseason. Matt Ryan is completing 75% of his passes for an average of 9.2 YPA and 3 touchdowns to 1 interception in the preseason this year and looks poised for a breakout year in a new downfield offense, surrounded by explosive weapons like Julio Jones, Roddy White, and Tony Gonzalez. The Chiefs don’t have the type of offense that can play well from behind so if the Falcons are able to open this up into a shootout, it could be game over for this team week 1.

If you’re interested in doing a fantasy football league with me, here’s the link (standard league, draft day Sunday at 3 PM ET, 2 spots left). http://msn.foxsports.com/fantasy/football/commissioner/Registration/Private.aspx?league=55086&password=FanSpot2

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Cowboys’ Jason Witten to be game time call week 1

stevenlourie Cowboys, News

Though original reports said he’d be doubtful, the Cowboys now feel that Jason Witten will be a game time call for their week 1 clash against the Giants next Wednesday, according to the Cowboys’ official website. Witten lacerated his spleen in the Cowboys’ 2nd preseason game against the Raiders, but took it easy for a few days and it healed without surgery. Witten is now trying to work his way back for the Cowboys’ early week 1 game and it sounds like things are going well. Witten, one of the toughest and most durable players in the league, hasn’t missed a game since 2003, his rookie year, when he missed only one game with a broken jaw.

Even if Witten doesn’t end up suiting up week 1, this is very good news. It very likely means that Witten will miss one game max and it sounds like he will almost definitely be out there week 2, actually 11 days after their week 1 opener against the defending Super Bowl champion New York Giants. An incredibly consistent producer, Witten has between 64 catches for 754 yards and 96 catches for 1145 yards in every season since 2004 and is averaging 5.16 catches for 59.07 yards and 0.31 touchdowns per game in that time period. Over 15 games, that’s 77 catches for 886 yards and 5 touchdowns. That’s not a bad year at all. You can safely draft him as your TE1 in fantasy. Even if he misses one game, tight end is a deep enough position that you can pick someone up off waivers for just one game and get decent production.

If you’re interested in doing a fantasy football league with me, here’s the link (standard league, draft day Sunday at 3 PM ET, 2 spots left). http://msn.foxsports.com/fantasy/football/commissioner/Registration/Private.aspx?league=55086&password=FanSpot2

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Only a one game suspension for Titans’ Kenny Britt

stevenlourie News, Titans

Kenny Britt got suspended today, but he was probably pretty happy about it considering it could have been a lot worse. After getting arrested for the 9th time in his still brief NFL career (since 2009) this offseason, this time for DUI, some predicted a 4 game suspension was a strong possibility for Brett. However, Adam Schefter, who is almost always right, believed it would be a shorter suspension, in the neighborhood of 1-3 games. Britt has to feel lucky that his suspension was on the lower end of even that as Roger Goodell handed down a suspension of just one game for Britt today.

The Titans definitely lucked out here, especially since Britt probably wouldn’t have been able to full go for week 1 anyway after two offseason knee surgeries. Britt should be closer to full strength by week 2 and be able to handle a starter’s role, so they really aren’t going to be missing him for much more than they already would have. Britt was activated off the active/PUP list this week and began practicing.

He’s coming off a torn ACL and had 3 knee surgeries this offseason, but he has caught 56 passes for 1146 yards and 12 touchdowns over his last 13 full games over the last 2 seasons. Still not yet 24 (turns 24 in September), the former 1st round pick still has all the potential in the world. If he can get his act together, stay out of trouble, and stay healthy, Britt has the talent to be a top-10 receiver in the league, especially with Jake Locker throwing to him. Remember, his quarterbacks in the past have been Vince Young, Kerry Collins, and Matt Hasselbeck.

He probably won’t reach top-10 status this season, with the 1 game suspension and the knee injuries, but he could definitely have that kind of year in 2013 if things go right for him between now and then. For 2012, Britt is a WR2/Flex with upside and a steal in fantasy leagues at his current ADP in the 7th round (which I suspect is about to shoot up). As for the Titans as a whole, I feel the same way about them that I did about the Lions last season (for more on why, click here).

If you’re interested in doing a fantasy football league with me, here’s the link (standard league, draft day Sunday at 3 PM ET, 2 spots left). http://msn.foxsports.com/fantasy/football/commissioner/Registration/Private.aspx?league=55086&password=FanSpot2

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Miami Dolphins trade C Ryan Cook to the Dallas Cowboys

stevenlourie Cowboys, Dolphins, News

Trade for Cowboys: The Cowboys are clearly desperate for interior offensive line help. After losing both of their starting guards this offseason, the Cowboys replaced them with Nate Livings, an inferior player who really struggled in Cincinnati last year, and Mackenzy Bernadeau, a career backup who has yet to nail down a starting job thanks to injuries. 2011 4th round pick David Arkin is believed to be the favorite to start week 1 at right guard, with Bernadeau remaining a backup despite already getting paid a 3.25 million dollar signing bonus. Meanwhile, at center, Phil Costa, who really struggled last year, missed time this preseason and is questionable for week 1 with back problems.

Ryan Cook is a versatile offensive lineman who can provide depth inside for them. He only played 21 snaps as the Dolphins’ backup center last year, but he used to be a starter both at right tackle and right guard for the Vikings a few years ago, though he was pretty mediocre. The Cowboys will be in trouble on the interior offensive line if he has to get significant playing time, especially at center where he isn’t as experienced, but they might be in trouble anyway. This deal makes some sense and the Cowboys are only giving him a 7th round pick for someone owed about a million this season. I just don’t know is Cook is any better than someone they could have snatched up after final cuts.

Grade: B

Trade for Dolphins: Cook might have been a final cut and, even if he wasn’t, he doesn’t play a big role for them. He played just 21 snaps last season and the Dolphins like undrafted rookie Josh Samuda to be their primary backup for Mike Pouncey. I think they got the better end of this deal, cutting a million from their payroll and picking up a late round pick.

Grade: A

If you’re interested in doing a fantasy football league with me, here’s the link (standard league, draft day Sunday at 3 PM ET, 2 spots left). http://msn.foxsports.com/fantasy/football/commissioner/Registration/Private.aspx?league=55086&password=FanSpot2

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