Jaguars’ Maurice Jones-Drew open to a trade

August 21, 2012 stevenlourie Jaguars, News

Though it seemed like earlier today that Maurice Jones-Drew’s holdout would be coming to a close, with less than 3 weeks before the regular season opener and a report by CBS Sports’ Pete Prisco that the feeling in the Jaguars’ locker room was that Maurice Jones-Drew would report soon, it now appears that the holdout has gone from bad to worse. New Jaguars owner Shahid Khan angered MJD, the league’s leading rusher in 2011, by calling him out publicly and saying “train’s leaving the station. run, get on it.” MJD responded by saying that he would welcome a trade.

Jones-Drew is obviously angered that Khan has been taking this so public when MJD has been trying to keep this a private matter all along. He also feels disrespected that the team won’t even discuss a new contract with him after he accounted for 47.7% of the team’s yards from scrimmage last season, by far most of any non-quarterback. Unlike last offseason, when Chris Johnson was holding out from the Titans, the Jaguars have not made MJD a reasonable offer. They haven’t even had talks with him about any offer, reasonable or unreasonable.

Last offseason, I took the Titans’ side and bashed Chris Johnson for being greedy. This offseason, I think MJD is being completely reasonable. He’s one of the best, if not the best, at his position in the league and will make just 9.4 million over the next 2 seasons. He’ll make about half of what guys like Chris Johnson, Matt Forte, Ray Rice, DeAngelo Williams, Arian Foster, LeSean McCoy, and Marshawn Lynch have gotten from their respective teams in the past calender year. The Jaguars, meanwhile, have the league’s most cap space at an estimated 25.11 million. It’s not even so much an issue of money here as it is about respect and the Jaguars are completely disrespecting arguably the most valuable non-quarterback playmaker in the league.

The Jaguars have called for Maurice Jones-Drew to fulfill his obligation, which is so hypocritical given that they, just like every other team in the league, frequently fail to fulfill their obligation and cut underperforming players. If MJD was underperforming his contract, they could cut him easily and probably would, given that he has no more guaranteed money left on his contract. MJD is underpaid on a terrible team at a position with a short shelf life. He has every right to hold out.

The Jaguars are currently taking the position that they will not be trading Maurice Jones-Drew, which is not surprising. Trading him would essentially mean caving and they don’t seem the least bit willing to do that. For this reason, it’s definitely possible that Maurice Jones-Drew could hold out into the season. His backup, Rashad Jennings, all of a sudden becomes an especially intriguing sleeper option in the mid rounds in fantasy leagues, while Maurice Jones-Drew’s stock plummets. I would take him anywhere in the first 5 rounds at least and I wouldn’t draft him without using a later pick on Jennings.

Though the Jaguars are very unlikely to trade him, at least now, it’s still fun to float out trade ideas. The Lions would be an obvious destination because their running back trio of Jahvid Best, Kevin Smith, and Mikel Leshoure is about as injury prone as they come. The Bengals, who only have BenJarvus Green-Ellis and Bernard Scott at running back, also make sense, albeit to a lesser extent.

To me, the most intriguing trade scenario would send him to the Atlanta Falcons. Meanwhile, Michael Turner and picks would go back to Jacksonville. Those two teams essentially swapped offensive coordinators this offseason, as former Jacksonville offensive coordinator Dirk Koetter went to Atlanta to replace Mike Mularkey, who left to become the new Head Coach of the Jacksonville Jaguars.

Michael Turner is not a good fit in Koetter’s offense, but MJD would be. In addition to being a better fit, he’s also 3 years younger and more talented and alright knows the offense. They would instantly have one of the league’s best and most balanced offenses if they made that trade, especially if Matt Ryan continues to look as good throwing to talented wideouts like Julio Jones and Roddy White in the regular season as he has looked thus far in the preseason.

Turner is older and less talented, but a much better fit for Mularkey’s scheme, which he’s done well in over the past few years, than Koetter’s. He could be a nice stopgap running back for the Jaguars and pair with Jennings and the picks would also be valuable assets in the Jaguars’ rebuilding project. This trade would also allow them to avoid committing the kind of big money to MJD that they so clearly don’t want to give him. Unfortunately, any trade seems like a real long shot right now and even if MJD holds out into the season, it would take some kind of monster offer, like the one the Bengals got for Carson Palmer last season, for the Jaguars to think about caving and trading away their best offensive player.

If you’re interested in doing a fantasy football league with me, here’s the link (no draft date set yet, currently standard, with the option to become PPR with group vote). http://msn.foxsports.com/fantasy/football/commissioner/Registration/Private.aspx?league=55086&password=FanSpot2

[switch_ad_hub]

Russell Wilson to start Seahawks’ 3rd preseason game

August 21, 2012 stevenlourie News, Seahawks

Could we have 5 rookie starting quarterbacks week 1? Well, 4 have already been named, Andrew Luck, Robert Griffin, Ryan Tannehill, and Brandon Weeden and a 5^th, the Seahawks’ Russell Wilson, will start in the team’s 3^rd preseason game this week. 3^rd preseason games are typically teams’ dress rehearsals for the regular season, when teams have their depth chart finalized. However, Wilson starting this week does not mean he will be the week 1 starter.

The Seahawks clearly have an unorthodox way of doing things. Not a lot of teams sign a quarterback to a deal with 10 million dollars guaranteed and then have him compete for the starting job, like they did with Matt Flynn. Because they’re so unorthodox, we should not assume that Wilson starting this week means he’ll start week 1. I mean when’s the last time you saw a team start one quarterback for the 1^st two preseason games and then started a different one in the 3^rd preseason game. Like I said, unorthodox.

Obviously Wilson has impressed them so far battling other teams’ 2^nd and 3^rd stringers and they want to see what he can do against 1^st stringers. If he plays well, he could definitely get the job. If he doesn’t, Flynn will probably start week 1. Wilson has completed 22 of 33 for 279 yards, 3 touchdowns, and an interception, while rushing for another 82 yards and a score on 8 carries. The Seahawks obviously really like the unorthodox styled quarterback as GM John Schneider compared him to Drew Brees and said that the 3^rd round pick was one of the “top three players” he scouted last fall. Matt Flynn’s grip on the starting job has been significantly loosened, but nothing is decided yet.

[switch_ad_hub]

Cowboys expect to be without Miles Austin for rest of preseason

August 21, 2012 stevenlourie Cowboys, News

Miles Austin, who has yet to play in a preseason game this year, is expected to miss the rest of the preseason with hamstring problems, according to the Cowboys’ official website. Hamstring problems tend to linger and Austin missed 6 games with hamstring problems last year and was limited by them in several others, leading to essentially a lost season for the talented wideout as he caught just 43 passes for 579 yards and 7 touchdowns. He’s no sure thing for week 1.

With Austin battling these hamstring problems and Jason Witten out indefinitely after rupturing his spleen, the Cowboys’ lack of depth in the receiving corps could be exposed. Backup tight end John Phillips, who would start in the absence of Witten has caught just 22 passes in his career, while the multitude of guys competing for positioning on the Cowboys depth chart behind the starters have combined for just 25 career catches, all of which were by Kevin Ogletree. The 2009 undrafted free agent, who struggled when counted on to start last season, is sadly the veteran of the group.

While all of these injuries are not good for the Cowboys’ offense as a whole, they probably will be good for Dez Bryant. Bryant, who is having a strong offseason on the field, could be due for a huge season in his 3^rd year in the league, typically a breakout year for receivers. He’s the clear #1 option in one of the best passing attacks in the league. After catching 63 passes for 928 yards and 9 touchdowns last season, Bryant could have over 70 catches for 1100 yards and 10 touchdowns this year, if he stays healthy.

[switch_ad_hub]

Seahawks expected to trade or cut Tarvaris Jackson soon

August 21, 2012 stevenlourie News, Seahawks

Further proving that Matt Flynn will be the week 1 starter for the Seahawks, multiple reports have said that the Seahawks are looking to trade Tarvaris Jackson and will cut him if they can’t. These reports include ones from NFL Network’s Jason La Canfora and ESPN’s John Clayton. Clayton believes he will be traded as soon as possible as that he will not play another snap for the Seahawks this preseason regardless, as the Seahawks don’t want their potential trade asset to get hurt. La Canfora, meanwhile, reveals that Jackson would be willing to take a pay cut in a trade, which would almost definitely be a requirement as his 4 million dollar salary is way too much for a pure backup.

Pro Football Talk also is reporting that Jackson, the incumbent starting quarterback, was never a serious contender for the starting job, which makes sense. The Seahawks were clearly less than thrilled with Jackson, who led them to a 7-9 record despite being supported by one of the better defenses in the league (7^th at 19.7 points per game allowed). That’s why they gave Matt Flynn 10 million guaranteed as a free agent acquisition and used a 3^rd round pick on Russell Wilson. That’s not something you do if you like your incumbent starting quarterback.

Jackson completed 60.5% of his passes for an average of 6.9 YPA and 14 touchdowns to 13 interceptions last year, actually up from his career averages. In his career, the former 2^nd round pick has completed just 59.4% of his passes for an average of 6.7 YPA and 38 touchdowns to 35 interceptions. He’d be a solid backup, but you’re in trouble if he’s your starter for an extended period of time.

One logical destination, Arizona, has been ruled out by beat writer Kent Somers of the Arizona Republic. The most logical remaining destination would seem to be Green Bay, who runs a similar west coast style offense to the Seahawks. They are in the market for a veteran backup after Graham Harrell, who has never attempted a regular season pass, struggled in an extended tryout this week, completing just 12 of 24 for 100 yards and 2 interceptions against the Browns 2^nd and 3^rd string defenders. Jackson might be worth a late round pick to them, but they’re also known to be interested in the Browns’ Colt McCoy, who is also available for trade. If the Seahawks can’t trade Jackson, they’ll just cut him, which is a strong possibility.

The Packers are the former home of Matt Flynn, once their primary backup and now the Seahawks’ expected starting quarterback. They have not officially named a starting quarterback, but Flynn has gotten the start in each of their 1^st two preseason games and his contract, 3 years, 19.5 million with 10 million guaranteed, has said starter all along. Wilson, meanwhile, will be the primary backup. The 3^rd round pick rookie has impressed this preseason, completing 22 of 33 for 279 yards, 3 touchdowns, and an interception, while rushing for another 82 yards and a score on 8 carries. His strong play has allowed the Seahawks to move on from Jackson and he’ll put pressure on Flynn if he struggles in his first year as a starter.

[switch_ad_hub]

Chiefs’ Tamba Hali suspended for 1 game

August 21, 2012 stevenlourie Chiefs, News

The Chiefs have one of the best pass rushers in the league, Tamba Hali, but he’s the only good pass rusher they’ve had for the past few years. Hali turned in another strong season in 2011, ranking 4th on ProFootballFocus among rush linebackers and producing 12 sacks, 10 quarterback hits, and 41 quarterback pressures on 459 pass rush snaps, good for a rate of 13.7%. However, the Chiefs only had 29 sacks.

In 2010, he had 19 sacks, 16 quarterback hits, and 68 quarterback pressures on 583 pass rush snaps, good for a rate of 15.9%. The Chiefs did manage 46 sacks, including playoffs, but nickel rusher Wallace Gilberry with 7 was the only other player on the team with more than 3. In 2009, he had 9 sacks, 13 quarterback hits, and 36 quarterback pressures on 449 pass rush snaps, good for a rate of 12.9%, but only Gilberry with 6 had more than 2 and the Chiefs managed 26 as a team.

They have an emerging pass rusher in Justin Houston opposite him. He played every snap except one from week 11 on and had most of his production in those 7 games, with 6 sacks, 2 quarterback hits, and 11 quarterback pressures on 151 pass rush snaps, a rate of 12.6%. It’s no coincidence that the Chiefs had 20 of their 29 sacks in those 7 games.

However, the bad news for the Chiefs is that they’ll have to play their week 1 game without Tamba Hali, after he was suspended for a surprisingly somehow previously unreported marijuana arrest. This is will really hurt their pass rush and is a huge blow to their defense. It really hurts their chances of pulling off an upset victory at home against a talented Falcons team that does struggle on the road.

[switch_ad_hub]

Dolphins name Ryan Tannehill starting quarterback

August 21, 2012 stevenlourie Dolphins, News

Though it looked like a long shot at the beginning of the preseason, the Dolphins have named Ryan Tannehill, the 8^th overall pick in the 2012 NFL Draft, their starting quarterback. Tannehill entered the preseason as the 3^rd string quarterback behind Matt Moore and David Garrard and looked like a long shot for the starting job. Best case scenario for Tannehill looked like that he would win the primary backup job and the loser of the Moore/Garrard battle would be cut, leaving Tannehill first in line should the starter struggle, which would have meant Tannehill could possibly start at some point this season.

However, Garrard hurt his knee and required surgery, which forced him out of the preseason and essentially eliminated him from the running. Meanwhile, new favorite Matt Moore really stunk up the joint this preseason, completing 12 of 27 for 136 yards and an interception. Tannehill, meanwhile, wasn’t much better, completing 25 for 44 for 267 yards and a touchdown, though you could argue that Moore (7 for 12 for 79 yards and an interception) outplayed Tannehill (11 for 23 for 100 yards) in their respective starts. Still, the Dolphins appear to want the future to be now and have named Tannehill the starter. Tannehill will be one of four rookie starting quarterbacks week 1, a record for any week.

It’s definitely not an encouraging thing for Dolphins fans. Tannehill essentially won the job by default and did nothing in his only action against a 1^st team defense to dispel the notion that he was a project who would not be ready to contribute in a positive manner year 1, after just 19 collegiate starts. And Tannehill didn’t just struggle, he struggled against Carolina, who had the worst passing defense in the league last year (8.4 YPA).

The Dolphins figure to really struggle offensively this year with a raw project quarterback throwing to one of the thinnest receiving corps in the league. They’ve upgraded the offensive line and run the ball well, though Reggie Bush is always an injury waiting to happen, but they should be one of the worst offensive teams in the league this year. Their defense will win them in some games (6^th in the league last year, allowing 19.6 per game), but the 2012 Dolphins could look eerily like the 2011 Jaguars, who finished 5-11.

Tannehill probably won’t be quite as bad as Blaine Gabbert as a rookie, but you can do a lot better than him for a QB2 in fantasy leagues. As for Moore and Garrard, it’s highly unlikely that both make the roster now and Garrard seems like the obvious odd man out after missing all of the preseason and most of Training Camp. After missing all of last season with a back injury, the 34 year old Garrard’s future seems very murky.

Moore, meanwhile, will likely remain as the veteran backup. It’ll be interesting to see if the Dolphins will bench Tannehill for Moore if he struggles or if they’ll let Tannehill take his lumps and try to learn through adversity. You can argue that Moore would have been the better option, even after a rough preseason, because of how surprisingly well he played last season. Moore completed 60.5% of his passes for an average of 7.2 YPA and 19 touchdowns to 9 interceptions, while leading a mediocre offensive supporting cast to 1.74 points per drive in 12 starts, which would have ranked tied for 17^th in the league last season had it been over a whole season.

[switch_ad_hub]

Titans name Jake Locker starting quarterback

August 20, 2012 stevenlourie News, Titans

The Tennessee Titans have named Jake Locker their starting quarterback, heading into their 3^rd preseason game, when teams typically have their depth charts finalized. Though this seemed like the likely outcome a week ago, the move actually comes as a bit of a surprise after Locker’s last preseason game, as he went just 4 of 11 for 21 yards and an interception in his 1^st preseason start. For reference, Matt Hasselbeck, the other candidate, went 5 of 9 for 45 yards, though with 2 interceptions, in his start.

Locker 8^th overall pick in the 2011 NFL Draft, saw limited action last season, showing off his arm by averaging 8.2 YPA and throwing 4 touchdowns to no interceptions. He also showed off his wheels by rushing for 56 yards and another score on 8 carries. However, Locker also completed just 51.5% of his passes and has accuracy issues dating back to his days at the University of Washington, where he completed just 53.9% of his passes and maxed out at 58.2% in 2009. Locker has done nothing to ease those concerns by completing just 11 of 24 (45.8%) this Preseason.

Locker has plenty of talent around him and the Titans are strong on both sides of the field. They have 3 good wide receivers, Kenny Britt, Nate Washington, and the rookie Kendall Wright, as well as a great pass catching tight end in Jared Cook. They have one of the best pass blocking offensive lines in the league and should get a bounce back year from Chris Johnson. Defensively, they allowed the 8^th fewest points per game last year, 19.8, and they should be able to make up for the loss of Cortland Finnegan in free agency with an improved pass rush, strong cornerback depth, and overall their youth coming of age (6 of their 11 defensive starters last year were in their 3^rd season or younger, including a whopping 4 rookies).

However, if Locker has the growing pains associated with a young, raw quarterback, which is definitely a possibility, the team will struggle to live up to the talent of their supporting cast. Locker will also be thrown out to the wolves as the Titans face a brutal early season schedule (vs. New England, @ San Diego, vs. Detroit, @ Houston, @ Minnesota, vs. Pittsburgh, @ Buffalo). It’s for this reason that I argued that Hasselbeck would have been the better choice. He is a reliable veteran who game managed this team to 9 wins last season and, had he been the starter, they would have been a much safer bet to make the playoffs. As a team, they obviously have more upside with Locker, but the downside is there as well. They could go anywhere from 6-10 to 11-5.

For what it’s worth, the Titans were better offensively with Locker on the field than Hasselbeck last season. Hasselbeck led the Titans to 264 points (not counting XPs or 2 PT conversions) on 162 drives (not counting end of half kneel downs/run out the clocks), good for 1.63 points per drive, while Locker led them to 33 points on 18 drives, 1.83 points per drive. It’s definitely worth noting that Locker did his work in very limited action and provides a small sample size.

In fantasy leagues, Locker has some upside as a QB2 because of his talent, his receiving corps, his pass heavy offense, and his rushing ability, but I wouldn’t be too excited about him until I see him be more accurate. Also, if he struggles, the Titans have the option of going to a proven veteran backup, Matt Hasselbeck, and benching Locker. Hasselbeck would be one of the league’s most expensive backups at 5.5 million this season, but the Titans have shown no desire to cut him and their trade options for him would be very limited as he’s making a starting salary and teams aren’t going to want to trade for a starting quarterback this close to the start of the season.

[switch_ad_hub]

John Skelton to start and play into 3rd quarter this week for Cardinals

August 20, 2012 stevenlourie Cardinals, News

Heading into their 4^th preseason game, the Cardinals still have not announced a starting quarterback. However, they have announced that John Skelton will start and play into the 3^rd quarter this week. The Cardinals played in the Hall of Fame game to start the Preseason so they have 5 Preseason games instead of 4, so this 4^th preseason game will essentially be used like their 3^rd preseason game.

Typically, the 3^rd preseason game is your dress rehearsal for the regular season. Teams have typically decided all of their starters by this point and will play them into the 2^nd half. Though the Cardinals have not officially named Skelton the starter, he will essentially be doing everything a starting quarterback normally would this week and, barring a complete meltdown during the game, he should be their week 1 starter.

Skelton hasn’t exactly set the world on fire with his play this Preseason, completing 10 of 15 for 90 yards, a touchdown, and an interception, but he’s basically won the job by default over Kolb, who has continued to make the Cardinals look foolish with his play this season. Kolb went 3-6 as a starter last season, 2-6 in games where he led the team in quarterback snaps, after the Cardinals gave up a 2^nd round pick and a starting cornerback for him and gave him a large contract last offseason. This offseason, they kept him and paid him his 7 million dollar bonus, rather than cutting him, and Kolb responded by going 5 of 15 for 47 yards and a pick this Preseason. Now it looks like he will become the league’s most expensive backup quarterback.

Skelton was actually the inferior of the two quarterbacks last season. He led 100 drives last season and the Cardinals scored 16 touchdowns and 11 field goals (129 points, 1.29 points per drive) on those 100 drives. Kolb led 91 drives, leading to 20 touchdowns and 6 field goals (138 points, 1.52 points per drive). Kolb also outplayed him statistically. He completed 146 of 253 (57.7%) for 1955 yards (7.7 YPA), 9 touchdowns, and 8 interceptions. Skelton completed just 151 for 275 (54.9%) for 1913 yards (7.0 YPA), 11 touchdowns, and 14 interceptions. Skelton did rush for 128 yards as opposed to 65 for Kolb and took just 23 sacks as opposed to 30 for Kolb.

Skelton was 6-2 in the 8 games he played the majority of the snaps, while Kolb was 2-6, but Skelton had the luxury of playing most of his games supported by better defensive play. In Skelton’s 8 games, the Cardinals allowed 19.0 points per game and in Kolb’s they allowed 24.5. All that being said, neither of them played very well at all and Skelton definitely outplayed him this offseason and this preseason. Either way the Cardinals figure to struggle mightily in 2012. Kolb’s 1.52 points per drive was equal to Washington’s last season and they ranked 22nd, while Skelton’s 1.29 was between Denver’s (1.38) and Indianapolis’ (1.24). They ranked 27th and 28th respectively last season.

For fantasy purposes, you can do a lot better than Skelton as a QB2. In 11 career starts, he’s thrown for 2248 yards, 10 touchdowns, 14 interceptions, while rushing for 153 yards. Over 16 games, that’s 3270 passing yards, 15 touchdowns, 20 interceptions, and 223 rushing yards. He was pulled in two of those games and has thrown for 2057 yards, 9 touchdowns, 10 interceptions, while rushing for 144 yards. Over 16 games, that’s 3657 passing yards, 16 touchdowns, and 17 interceptions, while rushing for 256 yards. He’s got a good receiving corps, but those mediocre numbers are what you can expect if he plays all 16 games. Plus, there’s no guarantee he won’t be benched midseason or anything like that.

[switch_ad_hub]

Season of Raiders’ Aaron Curry could be in jeopardy

August 12, 2012 stevenlourie News, Raiders

This is not what you want to hear. Aaron Curry, who is currently on the active/PUP list, will get a 2^nd opinion on his ailing knees as they are not responding to stem cell treatment, according to the Contra Costa Times. They also go to say that he won’t make the roster “unless his knee responds to treatment soon.” Owed a non-guaranteed 3.5 million this season, the Raiders seem to prefer cutting him outright over putting him on IR.

The Raiders have already lost one linebacker, Kamerion Wimbley, this offseason. Another linebacker, Rolando McClain, is facing 6 months in jail, pending an appeal. Curry might not be a great player, but the former 4^th overall pick in the 2009 NFL Draft, who was a bust in Seattle, played solid last season and he’s certainly better and more proven than Miles Burris, a 4^th round rookie who would start in his absence.

In addition to Wimbley and possibly McClain, the Raiders have also lost #1 cornerback Stanford Routt, while two of their best defensive players, Tommy Kelly and Richard Seymour, are both on the wrong side of 30. The allowed 27.1 points per game last season, 29^th in the NFL, and could easily be worse this year. They might be the worst defensive team in the league, which will make it really tough for them to win games.

[switch_ad_hub]

Sam Shields really struggling for Packers in Training Camp

August 12, 2012 stevenlourie News, Packers

One of the disappointments of Training Camp has been Packers’ cornerback Sam Shields. Shields had a very surprisingly strong rookie season in 2010 as an undrafted rookie free agent, taking over as the nickel back en route to the Super Bowl. However, he regressed in that same role in 2011 and now appears to be regressing even further. He’s been buried on the depth chart as a result of the start that the Milwaukee Journal Sentinel called “wretched.” They also added that he looked like “a mess.”

Shields is competing for the starting job opposite Tramon Williams, as Charles Woodson moves to safety in base packages and the slot in sub packages. However, it doesn’t look like he’ll be winning that job. More likely it will be either Davon House, a 2011 4^th round pick, or Casey Hayward, a 2012 2^nd round pick, though Hayward has to be considered the favorite after Houston dislocated his shoulder, putting his status for the opener in doubt. Jarrett Bush, a career special teamer, is also ahead of Shields on the depth chart right now, but he’s a long shot for the job. Shields, meanwhile, is no longer a lock for the roster at a deep position for the Packers.

[switch_ad_hub]

Football Fan Spot

A site for football fans

News

Jaguars’ Maurice Jones-Drew open to a trade

Russell Wilson to start Seahawks’ 3rd preseason game

Cowboys expect to be without Miles Austin for rest of preseason

Seahawks expected to trade or cut Tarvaris Jackson soon

Chiefs’ Tamba Hali suspended for 1 game

Dolphins name Ryan Tannehill starting quarterback

Titans name Jake Locker starting quarterback

John Skelton to start and play into 3rd quarter this week for Cardinals

Season of Raiders’ Aaron Curry could be in jeopardy

Sam Shields really struggling for Packers in Training Camp