News

Carolina Panthers 2013 Franchise Tag Candidates

stevenlourie News, Panthers

RB Jonathan Stewart

Jonathan Stewart has the talent to deserve the running back franchise tag, only 7.7 million in 2012, averaging 4.8 YPC in his career after going in the 1st round in 2008, including 5.4 YPC last year, when he finally broke out as a pass catcher, catching 47 passes. However, the Panthers gave DeAngelo Williams 5 years, 43 million with 21 million guaranteed last offseason, even though he’s 4 years older, and, backed up against the cap, it probably won’t make financial sense to commit upwards of 7.7 million to another running back, however talented he may be. Keeping Williams in 2011, rather than Stewart in 2013, could prove to be a big mistake.

Likelihood: Unlikely

[switch_ad_hub]

[switch_ad_hub]

[switch_ad_hub]

Tampa Bay Buccaneers 2013 Franchise Tag Candidates

stevenlourie Buccaneers, News

CB Aqib Talib

Aqib Talib was one of the best cornerbacks in the league in 2010, allowing 35 completions on 59 attempts (59.3%) for 502 yards (8.5 YPA), 5 touchdowns, and 6 interceptions, while deflecting 7 passes, committing 2 penalties. If he can bounce back off a slightly disappointing 2011 season, when he allowed 28 completions on 51 attempts (54.9%) for 479 yards (9.4 YPA), 6 touchdowns, and 2 interceptions, while deflecting 5 deflections and committing 6 penalties, he could be worth the cornerback franchise tag, even though it’s one of the most expensive (tied for 2nd most expensive in 2012 at 10.6 million). However, Talib has a checkered off the field history, so they may not want to give him that kind of money for that reason, even on a one year “prove it” deal.

Likelihood: Unlikely

[switch_ad_hub]

[switch_ad_hub]

[switch_ad_hub]

Atlanta Falcons 2013 Franchise Tag Candidates

stevenlourie Falcons, News

CB Brent Grimes

Grimes was franchised this offseason, but was not extended long term. Grimes is one of the best cornerbacks in the league, allowing just 25 completions on 56 attempts (44.6%) for 258 yards (4.6 YPA), 2 touchdowns, and 1 interception, while deflecting 12 passes and committing 1 penalty. However, he’d be owed 12.72 million in 2013 if franchised again, which might be too cost prohibitive. However, if he can prove he can stay healthy over a 16 game season this year, the Falcons might not feel they have any other choice, even if it means cutting someone like Dunta Robinson (only 3 million of his 8 million in 2013 is guaranteed), to free up the cap space.

Likelihood: Somewhat unlikely

S William Moore

Safeties have been franchised 4 times in the last 2 seasons because of how cheap the safety franchise tag is (just 6.2 million in 2012). However, I don’t think Moore is quite yet on the level of Michael Huff, Tyvon Branch, Dashon Goldson, and Michael Griffin, all of whom have been franchised in the last 2 seasons. However, I won’t rule out the 2009 2nd round pick having a breakout season, in which case the Falcons could franchise him to prove it again.

Likelihood: Somewhat unlikely

[switch_ad_hub]

[switch_ad_hub]

[switch_ad_hub]

New Orleans Saints 2013 Franchise Tag Candidates

stevenlourie News, Saints

OT Jermon Bushrod

On the surface, Bushrod is a valuable member of the Saints’ offense. He has allowed just 7 sacks in the last 2 seasons on one of the league’s most pass heavy offenses and made the Pro-Bowl last year. Pro-Bowl offensive tackles are rarely allowed to hit the open market, almost as rarely as Pro-Bowl quarterbacks. However, while Bushrod has one of the most important blindsides in the NFL to protect, he also has one of the easiest. Drew Brees doesn’t quite have Peyton Manning’s legendary pocket presence, but he’s pretty close.

He essentially protects his own blindside with how well he feels the pass rush and how quickly he makes decisions and releases the ball. Brees has only taken a sack 82 times in the last 4 years on 674 pressured drop backs (12.2%), the best rate in the league over that period by who has played in all 4 seasons (sorry, Peyton Manning). A deeper look at Bushrod’s stats shows that he is really a product of Drew Brees’ abilities. Bushrod has allowed 20 quarterback hits and 90 quarterback pressures in the last 2 seasons, yet only the aforementioned 7 sacks.

The Saints were pretty backed up against the cap this offseason and the massive extension they gave to Brees this off-season doesn’t help matters cap wise. The Saints would be wise not to commit another large sum of money for the 2013 season to Bushrod, who is really a replacement level player disguised as a Pro-Bowler with the help of his quarterback. They seem to agree as the two sides have not yet begun long term extension talks. The Saints have Charles Brown, a 2010 2nd round pick, as an in house replacement, if needed, though the Saints would resign Bushrod at the right price.

Likelihood: Unlikely

DT Sedrick Ellis

Ellis is even less likely than Bushrod. The Saints really don’t have the cap space to franchise any position player next offseason, unless they absolutely deserve it and Ellis deserves it even less than Bushrod, unless he can have a bounce back year in 2012. A 2008 1st round pick, Ellis has graded out as a below average defensive tackle on ProFootballFocus since his rookie season in 2008. In 2008, he had 4 sacks, 5 quarterback hits, and 28 quarterback pressures and from 2009 to 2011, he had 11 sacks, 6 quarterback hits, and 46 quarterback pressures, while struggling as a run stuffer the whole time.

Likelihood: Very unlikely

[switch_ad_hub]

[switch_ad_hub]

[switch_ad_hub]

Minnesota Vikings 2013 Franchise Tag Candidates

stevenlourie News, Vikings

OLB Erin Henderson

Erin Henderson was one of the best linebackers in the league last year, albeit only a two-down run stuffer. However, this season, he’ll get an every down role and could have the type of breakout season that gets his name mentioned with the best linebackers in the league. However, the linebacker franchise tag value (8.8 million in 2012) is inflated by the salaries of rush linebackers and thus non-rush linebackers rarely get tagged. After an offseason in which Curtis Lofton, Stephen Tulloch, and David Hawthorne got 27.5 million, 25.5 million, and 19 million respectively over 5 years, the Vikings are unlikely to commit 8.8 million or more to Henderson over just one season.

Likelihood: Very unlikely

DT Kevin Williams

This makes a lot of sense. Williams is aging, heading into his age 33 season in 2013, but he can still play at a high level so the Vikings won’t want to let him go. However, because he is aging, they could be wary about giving him too long of a contract with too much guaranteed money. The franchise tag, which is fairly inexpensive for defensive tackles (7.9 million in 2012), would be a good middle ground for the two sides and allow the two sides to discuss a long term deal.

Likelihood: Somewhat likely

[switch_ad_hub]

[switch_ad_hub]

[switch_ad_hub]

Detroit Lions 2013 Franchise Tag Candidates

stevenlourie Lions, News

DE Cliff Avril

The Lions franchised Avril this offseason, giving him 10.6 million guaranteed, but failed to reach a long term agreement with him, after he rejected their 3 year, 30 million dollar deal, with 20 million guaranteed. Avril skipped the early part of Training Camp in protest. Avril is an excellent pass rusher, who has managed 21 sacks, 10 quarterback hits, and 82 quarterback pressures in the last 2 seasons. However, the Lions have seemed weary of committing to him long term and, possessing adequate depth behind him at defensive end, I doubt they’d tag him again in 2013, at the rate of 12.72 million (120% of his 2012 salary, as per league rules), barring a massive season.

Likelihood: Unlikely

S Louis Delmas

When healthy, Louis Delmas is a solid safety and safeties have been franchised 4 times in the last 2 seasons because of how cheap the safety franchise tag is (just 6.2 million in 2012). However, I don’t think he’s quite yet on the level of Michael Huff, Tyvon Branch, Dashon Goldson, and Michael Griffin, all of whom have been franchised in the last 2 seasons. He’ll need to stay healthy and have a career best season in 2012 to be worthy of the tag. Since he had recent knee surgery and could miss the start of the season, that seems unlikely.

Likelihood: Somewhat unlikely

K Jason Hanson

Punters and kickers are the most often franchised because the franchise tag values for them are very cheap and franchising them makes a lot more sense than giving them a long term deal. Without another obvious candidate, Hanson makes some sense as a career 81.9% kicker, but that’s only assuming he still wants to play heading into his age 43 season in 2013 and that he can even still kick well at that age (not completely unheard of).

Likelihood: Somewhat unlikely

[switch_ad_hub]

[switch_ad_hub]

[switch_ad_hub]

Chicago Bears 2013 Franchise Tag Candidates

stevenlourie Bears, News

DT Henry Melton

Henry Melton had a breakout year in 2012, registering 7 sacks, 9 quarterback hits, and 23 quarterback pressures and graded out as ProFootballFocus’ 17th ranked defensive tackle. Heading into his 4th year in the league and a contract year, Melton, a 2009 4th rounder, is expected to get a larger role in the absence of guys like Amobi Okoye and Anthony Adams, who are no longer with the team. If he can keep it up in a larger role, he could emerge as one of the league’s premier defensive tackles and the Bears might see him worthy of the relatively inexpensive defensive tackle franchise tag (7.9 million in 2012).

Likelihood: Somewhat likely

MLB Brian Urlacher

Urlacher is a future Hall of Famer, but he’s aging and the linebacker franchise tag value (8.8 million in 2012) is inflated by the salaries of rush linebackers and thus non-rush linebackers rarely get tagged. After an offseason in which Curtis Lofton, Stephen Tulloch, and David Hawthorne got 27.5 million, 25.5 million, and 19 million respectively over 5 years, the Bears are unlikely to commit 8.8 million or more to Urlacher over just one season, especially his age 35 season. For reference, Urlacher will make just 7.5 million in 2012. If there’s anyone that’s going to be an exception to all that I’ve just said, it’s Urlacher, but more likely the two sides come to a more team friendly deal over a longer period of time that will allow Urlacher to retire as a Bear.

Likelihood: Unlikely

[switch_ad_hub]

[switch_ad_hub]

[switch_ad_hub]

Jaguars’ Head Coach Mike Mularkey has still never met Maurice Jones Drew

stevenlourie Jaguars, News

In what I find to be one of the funniest NFL stories I’ve read in a while, summing up the Jaguars’ ineptitude, Jacksonville Jaguars’ first year Head Coach Mike Mularkey and star running back Maurice Jones Drew have still never met each other. That’s right. The Jaguars Head Coach has met his best player the same number of times as most people reading this have, as MJD is still refusing to report to Training Camp.

The MJD and the Jaguars’ front office are speaking on a regular basis, but the two sides are still not close on a long term deal, as the Jaguars are refusing to even make him an offer on a long term extension. One side will almost definitely cave before the start of the season, so I don’t expect Maurice Jones-Drew to miss any games, but missing Training Camp and the Preseason, much like Chris Johnson did last offseason, could have a major negative effect on MJD’s production next season, especially with a new coaching staff coming in.

MJD is also coming off a season in which he led the league in carries, which could lead to him being worn out this season.  Since 1988, only 4 of 23 running backs who led the league in carry surpassed their rushing yards total the following season. 2 of those backs were Emmitt Smith and one was a 22 year old Edgerrin James in his 2nd year in the league. The other was a 27 year old Clinton Portis, so it’s not impossible to do it several years into your career without being Emmitt Smith, but the numbers are against him. Portis also went on to break down the very next year (124/494/1) and was out of the league before his 30th birthday. MJD is 27, by the way.

Since 1988, backs who lead the league in carries have averaged 368.8 carries per season, rushed for 1621.0 yards, and scored 14.6 touchdowns. The following season, they averaged 273.8 carries per season, rushed for 1091.7 yards, and scored 9.2 touchdowns. An extended holdout won’t help matters. MJD accounted for a 90s-esque 47.7% of his team’s yards from scrimmage last year, so the Jaguars could be even worse this season offensively, unless a new coaching staff and some new weapons can turn Blaine Gabbert from lame duck to serviceable.

In fantasy leagues, meanwhile, MJD should be avoided in the 1st round, especially on such a desolate offense overall. Let him be someone else’s problem and if you do draft him at any point, make sure to draft handcuff Rashad Jennings, his top backup, as well. Jennings is also a nice high upside sleeper late for all owners.

[switch_ad_hub]

[switch_ad_hub]

[switch_ad_hub]

Packers sign Cedric Benson

stevenlourie News, Packers

After going fully with a youth approach at the running back position this offseason, the Packers have finally caved and signed a veteran back, signing Cedric Benson, formerly of the Cincinnati Bengals, to a one year contract. Prior to Benson’s signing, the idea was to have James Starks, a 2010 6th round pick with just 162 career carries, and Alex Green, a 2011 3rd round pick with just 3 career carries coming off a torn ACL, to be the top two backs with Brandon Saine, a 2011 undrafted free agent with just 18 career carries, and maybe Marc Tyler, a rookie undrafted free agent, to be below them on the depth chart.

However, with Starks, the presumed lead back, having a rough Training Camp, the Packers have signed Benson, a major indictment on Starks, especially. Benson won’t cut too much into Green’s carries as he’s the type of change of pace, pass catching back that neither Benson nor Starks is. He’ll still have a significant role. However, Benson will cut into Starks’ carries on the first two downs. It’s not a pretty situation for fantasy players, but the Packers have a strong passing game and offensive line so their 3 backs splitting carries should allow them to be decent on the ground as an occasional change of speed from their dominant passing offense. Ironically, the soon to be 30 Benson would appear to be the most durable of the group.

[switch_ad_hub]

[switch_ad_hub]

[switch_ad_hub]

Green Bay Packers 2013 Franchise Tag Candidates

stevenlourie News, Packers

WR Greg Jennings

Jennings seems like a natural fit for the franchise tag. He’s one of the best players heading into a contract year in the league this season and he doesn’t face much, if any, competition from teammates for the franchise tag. They’ll want to make sure they can lock him up long term, so, unless they come to agreement before then, I’d be surprised if they didn’t tag him next offseason.

Likelihood: Very unlikely

[switch_ad_hub]

[switch_ad_hub]

[switch_ad_hub]