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Dallas Cowboys 2013 Franchise Tag Candidates

stevenlourie Cowboys, News

OLB Anthony Spencer

Anthony Spencer was franchised this offseason, at the rate of 8.8 million, which was surprising because he’s never managed more than 6 sacks in a season. However, a closer look at his statistics shows that he is a very good player. Though he only had 6 sacks this season, he did have 9 quarterback hits and 35 quarterback pressures and he was ProFootballFocus’ 2nd highest rated 3-4 outside linebacker against the run, only behind James Harrison.

The Cowboys franchised him this offseason to essentially give him a one year “prove it” deal, in hopes that he would finally break out as an elite pass rusher opposite DeMarcus Ware. Owed 120% of his 2012 franchise tag value in 2013, if he were to be franchised again, 10.56 million, Spencer is doubtful to get the tag again unless he has a massive breakout season.

Likelihood: Unlikely

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Philadelphia Eagles 2013 Franchise Tag Candidates

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CB Dominique Rodgers-Cromartie

While I like DRC, a 2009 Pro-Bowler and 2008 1st round pick, to have a bounce back year in 2012, now that he’s no longer playing the slot and now that he’s motivated financially, the cornerback tender is one of the most expensive tenders in the league, tied for 2nd highest in 2012 at 10.6 million. That type of money is normally only reserved for consistent, elite cornerbacks, which DRC is not.

Likelihood: Very unlikely

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Washington Redskins 2013 Franchise Tag Candidates

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TE Fred Davis

Players aren’t franchised two years in a row very often and Davis was franchised this offseason, but he does make sense as an exception. The tight end franchise tag value is still relatively cheap, the cheapest of any non-special teamer (5.4 million in 2012). The Redskins could franchise him for the 2nd time in 2013 at the rate of just 6.48 million, which is much, much cheaper than franchising any other position for the 2nd time.

Davis was on pace for 79 catches for 1061 yards and 4 touchdowns before getting suspended for 4 games last season. The reason the two sides did not reach a long term agreement this offseason was because Davis felt he could produce elite tight end numbers and the Redskins wouldn’t pay him like an elite tight end without actually seeing it over a full season, rather than on a per game basis. With better quarterback play in 2012, if he even approaches those numbers, Davis would be worthy that “re-franchised” figure.

Likelihood: Likely

K Neil Rackers

Punters and kickers are the most often franchised because the franchise tag values for them are very cheap and franchising them makes a lot more sense than giving them a long term deal. However, they’re almost always franchised only when the team doesn’t have someone more important to franchise. If they choose not to tag Davis again, for whatever reason, Rackers could be a candidate. He’s a career 80.0% kicker.

Likelihood: Unlikely

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New York Giants 2013 Franchise Tag Candidates

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WR Victor Cruz

Victor Cruz would technically be a restricted free agent next offseason, so they could slap a 1st round tender on him and continue to negotiate with him or force him to play out the 2013 season on the tender. However, the Giants may want to avoid a Mike Wallace situation, especially if Cruz continues to produce like he did in 2011 (82 catches for 1536 yards and 9 touchdowns). He’s definitely worth the wide receiver franchise tag value (9.4 million in 2012), barring a regression, and the Giants could choose to franchise him, rather that slap a 1st round tender on him, as an act of good faith.

Likelihood: Somewhat likely

S Kenny Phillips

Of course, the Giants do have other options. After a nasty injury early in his career, Phillips has emerged as one of the better safeties in the league. The safety franchise tag value is pretty inexpensive (6.2 million in 2012), and for that reason, 4 players at the position have been slapped with it in the last 2 seasons, Tyvon Branch, Michael Huff, Michael Griffin, and Dashon Goldson. Phillips would fit in that group, so he could definitely be tagged, but only if they decide not to go this route with Cruz, as he’s the more valuable player.

Likelihood: Somewhat likely

DE Osi Umenyiora

Osi Umenyiora is a very good pass rusher, but the defensive end tag is one of the most expensive tags (10.6 million in 2012, tied for 2nd highest in the NFL), so I can’t see the Giants committing that kind of money to an aging pass rusher (age 32 in 2013), who is still only a situational player. If Umenyiora is going to remain with the Giants, it’s going to be on a pure short or long term deal.

Likelihood: Very unlikely

K Lawrence Tynes

Punters and kickers are the most often franchised because the franchise tag values for them are very cheap and franchising them makes a lot more sense than giving them a long term deal. However, they’re almost always franchised only when the team doesn’t have someone more important to franchise. Phillips and Cruz would definitely qualify, even though Tynes is a solid kicker who has been with the Giants for years and made several big kicks en route to 2 Super Bowl victories. He’s a career 80.9% kicker.

Likelihood: Unlikely

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Kansas City Chiefs 2013 Franchise Tag Candidates

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WR Dwayne Bowe

After being franchised this offseason (which he still has not signed, by the way), Bowe would be owed about 11.4 million in 2013 were he to be franchised again. He might be worth that much, but it really feels like the two sides are going be split ways after the 2012 season. The Chiefs won’t reward him with a giant payday in 2013 after what he’s done this offseason, especially with no guarantee he’ll even sign. They also definitely have other options.

Likelihood: Unlikely

OT Branden Albert

This makes more sense. Branden Albert, the 15th pick in 2008 NFL Draft, finally broke out as a legitimate franchise left tackle in 2011 and those guys are rarely allowed to hit the open market. Unless he regresses in 2012, the Chiefs could definitely slap the franchise tag on him, especially if it’s as reasonably priced for offensive linemen as it was in 2012 (9.4 million).

Likelihood: Likely

DE Glenn Dorsey

This is another option, but, while Dorsey plays the run well, he really struggles as a pass rusher, even for a five-technique. 3-4 defensive ends are rarely slapped with the tag because the defensive end is normally one of the most expensive in the league (10.6 million in 2012) and defensive ends in a 3-4 are not as valuable as outside linebackers in 3-4, who focus more on rushing the quarterback.

The 3-4 defensive end is really more like a defensive tackle than a defensive tackle and defensive tackles are worth less. Dorsey barely gets any pass rush at all and 8 figures is way too much to pay a guy whose mostly a run stuffer for one year. The only way he gets franchise tagged is if they can get him classified as a defensive tackle (7.9 million in 2012).

Likelihood: Unlikely

P Dustin Colquitt

Punters and kickers are the most often franchised because the franchise tag values for them are very cheap and franchising them makes a lot more sense than giving them a long term deal.  However, when teams have players on either offense or defense worthy of the tag, they lock them up first. Colquitt is a fine punter (career 44.4 yards per punt), but someone like Albert makes way more sense.

Likelihood: Somewhat unlikely

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Oakland Raiders 2013 Franchise Tag Candidates

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P Shane Lechler

Punters and kickers are the most often franchised because the franchise tag values for them are very cheap and franchising them makes a lot more sense than giving them a long term deal. The Raiders don’t have another option that makes any sense and Lechler is one of the best punters in the league (47.6 yards per punt career average). They will likely franchise him, if they can’t get a long term deal hammered out before hand, even though the franchise tag value would be 4.56 million for him (120% of his 2012 season, which is 3.8 million).

Likelihood: Likely

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Denver Broncos 2013 Franchise Tag Candidates

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OT Ryan Clady

This one is a no brainer. The Broncos don’t have any other options that make any sense and they won’t let their franchise left tackle hit the open market, even though, as I’ve explained before, he’s one of the most overrated players in the NFL. Still, those guys are available on the open market almost as rarely as franchise quarterbacks. Clady and the Broncos have tabled contract talks for now and since they were willing to offer him 5 years, 50 million (which he rejected), they’ll have no problem slapping the franchise tag on him (9.4 million in 2012).

Likelihood: Very likely

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San Diego Chargers 2013 Franchise Tag Candidates

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K Nate Kaeding

Punters and kickers are the most often franchised because the franchise tag values for them are very cheap and franchising them makes a lot more sense than giving them a long term deal.  Kaeding is a career 86.5% field goal kicker, but he missed all of last season with injury. If he can bounce back in 2012, the Chargers could easily franchise him, especially since they don’t have another obvious candidate for the tag.

Likelihood: Likely

OLB Shaun Phillips

Phillips has been one of the Chargers’ best pass rushers over the last few seasons, but he’ll be heading into his age 32 season in 2013 it would make sense for the Chargers to franchise him, rather than give him a long term deal. However, he’s coming off an injury plagued season and an aging player, so he’ll need a bounce back year to prove he’d even be worth the linebacker franchise tag (8.8 million in 2012) at age 32. Even if he does that, the Chargers may just opt to move on from the aging Phillips, after bringing in two new rush linebackers this offseason, Melvin Ingram (draft) and Jarret Johnson (free agency).

Likelihood: Unlikely

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Tennessee Titans 2013 Franchise Tag Candidates

stevenlourie News, Titans

TE Jared Cook

Jared Cook had a breakout year in 2011, catching 49 passes for 759 yards and 3 touchdowns and was even better in his final 3 games, catching 21 passes for 335 yards and a score. If he can reproduce those numbers or exceed them in his 4th season in the league, the Titans could definitely franchise tag him, especially since the franchise tag value for tight ends was the lowest of the non-special teamers in 2012, just 5.4 million. The Titans do have other options though.

Likelihood: Somewhat likely

CB Jason McCourty

The Titans lost their #1 cornerback, Cortland Finnegan, this offseason and want to avoid losing their new #1 cornerback, Jason McCourty, next offseason. However, the cornerback franchise tag value was tied for 2nd highest in the league in 2012, 10.6 million, so McCourty, who is getting promoted from the #2 to #1 cornerback, will have to show that he’s a legitimate elite cornerback capable of shutting down opponent’s #1 receivers. The Titans are working on extensions with him and Cook right now, but likely feel more urgency to sign McCourty, as he plays a more important position and would have a more expensive franchise tag value.

Likelihood: Somewhat likely

K Rob Bironas

Punters and kickers are the most often franchised because the franchise tag values for them are very cheap and franchising them makes a lot more sense than giving them a long term deal. However, they’re almost always franchised only when the team doesn’t have someone more important to franchise. While they won’t want Bironas, a career 86.3% kicker who has been with the Titans since 2005, to leave, they’ll only franchise him if McCourty and Cook are both under contract or regress prove themselves unworthy of the franchise tag.

Likelihood: Somewhat unlikely

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Jacksonville Jaguars 2013 Franchise Tag Candidates

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OLB Daryl Smith

Smith is one of the best outside linebackers in the league, but the linebacker franchise tag value (8.8 million in 2012) is inflated by the salaries of rush linebackers and thus non-rush linebackers rarely get tagged. After an offseason in which Curtis Lofton, Stephen Tulloch, and David Hawthorne got 27.5 million, 25.5 million, and 19 million respectively over 5 years, the Jaguars are unlikely to commit over 8.8 million to Smith over just one season.

Likelihood: Unlikely

CB Derek Cox

Cox is an interesting case. A 3rd round pick in 2009, Cox stunk it up his first two years in the NFL, but looked like a legitimate #1 cornerback in 2011 before getting hurt, allowing just 9 completions on 28 attempts (32.1%), 105 yards (3.8 YPA), while deflecting 3 passes and committing 1 penalty. If he can stay healthy and play well for an entire season, the Jaguars might consider using the franchise tag on him, but those are big ifs and the franchise tag value for cornerbacks was tied for the 2nd highest in 2012 (10.6 million).

Likelihood: Somewhat unlikely

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