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Houston Texans 2013 Franchise Tag Candidates

stevenlourie News, Texans

QB Matt Schaub

The only reason the Texans haven’t extended Schaub yet is because they want him to prove he can stay healthy, after missing 5+ games in 3 of the last 5 seasons. If he does that this year, he’ll definitely get the tag. A healthy Schaub could lead this team to the Super Bowl or, at the very least, a strong season. They won’t let him get away if they do that.

Likelihood: Very likely

OT Duane Brown

A 1st round pick in 2008, Brown had an amazing season in 2012, not allowing a sack on the blindside in 18 games, including playoffs. Under normal circumstances, they wouldn’t let him hit the open market, but they can’t tag both him and Schaub. They’re trying to extend Brown before the start of the season, right now, which makes a lot more sense than potentially letting him or Schaub get away after next season.

Likelihood: Unlikely

Connor Barwin

Connor Barwin is definitely deserving of the franchise tag after a strong season in his first year as a starter, but he’d only get it if Brown and Schaub were extended before free agency starts, or if, for whatever reason, Schaub proved himself not to be worthy of the tag. As with Brown, the Texans are currently trying to do a long term deal with Barwin. If they can’t get one of them signed before free agency, it’ll be very tough for them to keep all three of their important cogs.

Likelihood: Very unlikely

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Indianapolis Colts 2013 Franchise Tag Candidates

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OLB Dwight Freeney

Dwight Freeney has been one of the best pass rushers in the league over the past decade or so, but, heading into his age 33 season in 2013, the Colts will be wary about committing too much to him long term. If he continues to produce in 2012, he would, under normal circumstances, be a natural candidate for the franchise tag, so he could get his money and the Colts won’t have to commit too much to him long term.

However, these are not normal circumstances, as, rather than the regular linebacker franchise tag value (8.8 million in 2012), Freeney would be guaranteed over 120% of his 2012 salary, which was 14.035 million. There’s very little chance they’d risk having to commit 16.842 million to him in 2013 at age 33, especially on a rebuilding team.

Likelihood: Very unlikely

P Pat McAfee

Punters and kickers are the most often franchised because the franchise tag values for them are very cheap and franchising them makes a lot more sense than giving them a long term deal. McAfee has a solid 44.5 yards per punt average in his career and, if he has another season like 2011 (46.6 yards per punt) in 2012, he’d become a natural candidate for the franchise tag.

Likelihood: Likely

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Cincinnati Bengals 2013 Franchise Tag Candidates

stevenlourie Bengals, News

MLB Rey Maualuga

Maualuga is a good linebacker, but the linebacker franchise tag value (8.8 million in 2012) is inflated by the salaries of rush linebackers and thus non-rush linebackers rarely get tagged. After an offseason in which Curtis Lofton, Stephen Tulloch, and David Hawthorne got 27.5 million, 25.5 million, and 19 million respectively over 5 years, the Bengals are unlikely to commit 8.8 million to Maualuga over just one season.

Likelihood: Very unlikely

P Kevin Huber

Punters and kickers are the most often franchised because the franchise tag values for them are very cheap and franchising them makes a lot more sense than giving them a long term deal. Huber has just a 43.3 yards per punt average in his career though, so he’ll need a career best year to prove he’s worth being franchised.

Likelihood: Unlikely

K Mike Nugent

Nugent is a good kicker and received the franchise tag this offseason, meaning he’d be owed at least 3.1848 million if he were to be franchised again. There is some precedent for this type of thing though, especially with kickers and punters, and if Nugent, a career 80.9% kicker, nails 86.8% again, the Bengals might slap him with the tag for the 2nd straight season, especially since they don’t really have anyone better to tag.

Likelihood: Somewhat likely

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Cleveland Browns 2013 Franchise Tag Candidates

stevenlourie Browns, News

P Reggie Hodges

Punters and kickers are the most often franchised because the franchise tag values for them are very cheap and franchising them makes a lot more sense than giving them a long term deal. However, Hodges missed the entirety of the 2011 season with an Achilles tear and is just a 41.3 yards per punt career punter. It’ll take a career year for him to be deemed worthy of the tag.

Likelihood: Unlikely

K Phil Dawson

As I said, Punters and kickers are the most often franchised because the franchise tag values for them are very cheap and franchising them makes a lot more sense than giving them a long term deal. However, Dawson has already been franchised twice so his tag value would be 5.3 million for the 2013 season. While Dawson is one of the best kickers in the game, it doesn’t make a whole lot of sense to commit that kind of money to a kicker.

Likelihood: Somewhat unlikely

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Baltimore Ravens 2013 Franchise Tag Candidates

stevenlourie News, Ravens

QB Joe Flacco

This is a make or break season for Joe Flacco as he heads into a contract year. If he can prove himself to be more than just a game manager who is blessed with a strong supporting cast, the Ravens will have no problem franchise tagging him, even though the franchise tag value in 2012 was a whopping 16.1 million. If he can’t do that, they might see that amount as way too expensive for Flacco, even if it means risking losing him as a free agent. The two sides are currently trying to work on a contract before the season, which seems more likely than Flacco having a career year in his 5th year in the league and earning a contract worth over 16 million yearly.

Likelihood: Somewhat likely

S Ed Reed

Ed Reed won’t be subject to the normal franchise tag value (6.2 million in 2012) because he’ll make 7.2 million this season so the franchise tag value will be 8.64 million for him in 2013. That’s a lot for a 34 year old, but the Ravens might not want him to escape and if they can’t get him signed to a team friendly long term deal, they might tag him and just go year to year with him since he’s such a valuable part of their defense.

Likelihood: Somewhat unlikely

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Pittsburgh Steelers 2013 Franchise Tag Candidates

stevenlourie News, Steelers

WR Mike Wallace

This is an interesting one. Under normal circumstances, Wallace would appear to be an obvious candidate for the franchise tag because the Steelers don’t really have any other pending free agents worth the tag. However, Wallace could hold out into the 2012 season and the Steelers probably wouldn’t reward him with a franchise tag if he does that. They also are pretty backed up against the cap after extending Antonio Brown, so they might not have the cap space to tag Wallace or even extend him at all, even if he reports before the start of the 2012 season.

Likelihood: Somewhat unlikely

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Buffalo Bills 2013 Franchise Tag Candidates

stevenlourie Bills, News

G Andy Levitre

Andy Levitre emerged as one of the best guards in the league last season and he also played some center and left tackle, so he’s got plenty of versatility. However, guards and centers are rarely franchise tagged because the franchise tag value for interior linemen is the same as for tackles and interior linemen just aren’t worth as much. Unless Levitre ends up moving to left tackle long term, he won’t be worth the offensive line franchise tag value (9.4 million in 2012). For this reason, the Bills are trying hard to lock him up before the season.

Likelihood: Unlikely

S Jairus Byrd

Jairus Byrd has emerged as one of the best all around safeties in the NFL and he’s better than Michael Huff, Tyvon Branch, Michael Griffin, and Dashon Goldson, all of whom have been franchised as safeties over the last 2 seasons. The safety franchise tag value is pretty small (6.2 million in 2012) so, unless they can get him signed long term beforehand, it’s very likely he gets the tag next offseason.

Likelihood: Very likely

P Brian Moorman

Punters and kickers are often franchise tagged by default by teams who don’t any anyone else to franchise tag because the value for the punter tag and kicker tag are both very small. Moorman is a great punter who averaged 48.2 yards per punt last season, but the Bills have other, more valuable players worthy of the tag.

Likelihood: Unlikely

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New York Jets 2013 Franchise Tag Candidates

stevenlourie Jets, News

RB Shonn Greene

Shonn Greene is an interesting case. He’s not a particularly talented back, but he’s shown he’s capable of carrying a load and moving the chains and the Jets are really thin at running back behind him. They are their best when they are run heavy and unless another one of their backs steps up this season, the Jets might not see the franchise tag value for running backs (7.7 million in 2012) as too much to pay for a workhorse chain moving back like Greene.

Likelihood: Somewhat unlikely

TE Dustin Keller

Dustin Keller broke out in 2011 and the led team with a career high 65 catches for 815 yards and 5 touchdowns. They haven’t given him a long term deal yet because they want him to prove it again, but if he does, I see no reason why they wouldn’t franchise tag him, unless they can reach a long term deal ahead of free agency. On a poor receiving corps, Keller is their only reliable receiver and the 2012 franchise tag value for tight ends was just 5.4 million, the lowest of any non-special team positions.

Likelihood: Likely

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Miami Dolphins 2013 Franchise Tag Candidates

stevenlourie Dolphins, News

RB Reggie Bush

The franchise tag value for running backs was only 7.7 million in 2012 and if Reggie Bush has another season like he just had, (216 carries for 1086 yards and 6 touchdowns with another 43 catches for 296 yards and another score), he’d be worth that. Heading into his age 28 season in 2013, that would make a lot more sense than giving him a long term deal, especially considering Bush’s history of injuries. However, Bush has only averaged over 4.2 YPC in one other season in his career and only had 212 carries in the previous 3 seasons combined so it’s unlikely he can reproduce what he did last season. The Dolphins don’t seem to think so either as they used a 4th round pick on Lamar Miller, a potential long term replacement in tandem with Daniel Thomas.

Likelihood: Somewhat unlikely

WR Brian Hartline

Brian Hartline has as good a chance as anyone on the Dolphins of breaking out as a #1 wide receiver, but unfortunately that chance isn’t very good for anyone. On the off chance he does, he could be franchised in order to prove it again. The franchise tag value for receivers in 2012 was just 9.4 million.

Likelihood: Very unlikely

OT Jake Long

Teams rarely let their franchise left tackles hit the open market. Seeing a franchise left tackle available on the open market is almost as rare as seeing a franchise quarterback on the open market. Long was the #1 overall pick in the 2008 NFL Draft and has been a Pro-Bowler in each of the last 4 seasons. Unless he majorly regresses in Miami’s new zone blocking scheme, the Dolphins won’t let him go. If they can’t agree to a long term extension with him before free agency starts, he’ll almost definitely be franchised, especially if the franchise tag value for offensive lineman remains at the 9.4 million it was in 2012.

Likelihood: Very likely

DT Randy Starks

Randy Starks has become one of the best defensive tackles in the league and has played well both in a 3-4 and 4-3 defense. If the Dolphins can get Long under contract before free agency starts, Starks becomes the most likely candidate for the franchise tag, especially if the defensive tackle tag value stays at just 7.9 million.

Likelihood: Somewhat likely

CB Sean Smith

Smith was one of the best cornerbacks in the league in 2010, but the 2009 2nd round pick regressed in 2011. If he bounces back in 2012, he could be a candidate for the franchise tag, but only if Long is extended and Bush regresses. The franchise tag value for cornerbacks, 10.6 million in 2012, was tied for the 2nd most expensive of any position, so it should be reserved for only consistently elite cornerbacks, which Smith isn’t really, even if he bounces back.

Likelihood: Very unlikely

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New England Patriots 2013 Franchise Tag Candidates

stevenlourie News, Patriots

WR Wes Welker

Welker put the Patriots in an interesting situation this offseason. He’s aging and has never produced outside of New England’s system, but he’s too valuable to them for them to just let him go so they franchised him and did not sign him long term. The franchise tag value for him next offseason will be somewhere around 11.4 million since he was franchised once before, but if continues to produce, the Patriots could be put in a similar situation this offseason and they might respond the same way, by paying him a large chunk of money for one season to keep him, without having to extend him long term.

Likelihood: Unlikely

OT Sebastian Vollmer

Vollmer will play right tackle for the Patriots this season, but the 2009 2nd round pick has experience on both sides of the line and has played well in both positions so he might end up at left tackle if 2nd year player Nate Solder struggles. If he does that and proves to be an elite long term left tackle, they won’t want to let him go. The franchise tag value for the offensive line was 9.4 million in 2012 and should be around there in 2013 so the Patriots might feel Vollmer is worth it.

Likelihood: Somewhat unlikely

S Patrick Chung

When Patrick Chung is healthy, he’s one of the better safeties in the league and the 6.2 million dollar franchise tag value for safeties in 2012 would not be too much to pay for Chung. Even if the tag value increases, Chung would still be worth it. However, he’ll have to prove he can stay healthy first. If he can do that, he certainly is on the same level as guys like Michael Huff, Dashon Goldson, Tyvon Branch, and Michael Griffin who have been franchised at the safety position in the last 2 offseasons.

Likelihood: Somewhat likely

QB Brian Hoyer

I’m only listing Hoyer because the Patriots once franchised Matt Cassel, in order to flip him to Kansas City for a 2nd round pick. Hoyer is considered one of the better backup quarterbacks in the league and frequently gets his name mentioned in trade talks to quarterback needy teams. However, Cassel had a full season of starting experience under his belt when the Patriots franchise tagged him, while Hoyer has never started a game.

Unless Brady gets hurt, I can’t see the Patriots going the Cassel route with Hoyer as he’d be way overpaid if they couldn’t move him as the 2012 quarterback franchise tag value was 16.1 million. Hoyer was a restricted free agent this offseason and available for a 2nd round pick, but he couldn’t generate any interest and that would likely remain the case in 2013, especially at a higher salary.

Likelihood: Very unlikely

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