Probable
WR Brandon Banks (Hip)
WR Pierre Garcon (Foot)
CB DeAngelo Hall (Illness)
WR Aldrick Robinson (Head)
OT Trent Williams (Knee)
Questionable, likely to play
Questionable, game time decision
RB Evan Royster (Knee)
Doubtful/Out
CB Cedric Griffin (Hamstring)
S Brandon Meriweather (Knee)
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Probable
DT Jonathan Babineaux (Groin)
WR Julio Jones (Hand)
OLB Stephen Nicholas (Thigh)
CB Christopher Owens (Head)
RB Antone Smith (Hamstring)
Questionable, likely to play
N/A
Questionable, game time decision
C Todd McClure (Pectoral)
S William Moore (Hip)
RB Lousaka Polite (Hamstring)
Doubtful/Out
TE Michael Palmer (Shoulder)
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Under .500 for the first time since 2003 and heading into a crucial divisional away game in Buffalo, where the Bills lead the division right now, the Patriots are less than 100% injury wise and missing critical players. Everyone knows about the Aaron Hernandez injury. He’ll be out another week and probably won’t be back until week 6 at the earliest. Hernandez’s replacement, Julian Edelman, is also out with what’s presumed to be a broken hand (although Belichick never tells anyone anything), which means we’ll see a lot more of Brady’s old favorite target Deion Branch, recently resigned last week. However, possibly the biggest injury is one to left guard Logan Mankins.
Mankins played all last season with a torn ACL and finished the season outside the top-6 at his position on ProFootballFocus for the first time since they started keeping track in 2008, as a result. That streak of top-6 appearances from 2008-2010 is something no other guard in the league can say. It’s incredible how Mankins played through that injury, something you never hear anyone do (he tore it week 1 and had surgery after the Super Bowl), and given that, it’s kind of ironic that a hip injury is sidelining him this week. I guess this injury must be one that actually significantly limits his ability, rather than just a pain tolerance thing.
The reason I say that this is possibly the biggest injury is because Tom Brady has had success without much receiving help before. In 10 seasons, Brady has had 9 different players have impressive receiving totals and, with the exception of Randy Moss, none did anything before New England and none did anything after and Moss was acquired for a 4th round pick so it’s not like they acquired him at his peak or anything.
However, if you like to nitpick, the only flaw in Brady’s game is that if your 4 guys can beat his 5 guys, he’s beatable. He also only has completed 232 of 464 passes (50.0%) and thrown 24 touchdowns to 13 interceptions under pressure over the last 3 seasons plus, as opposed to 1061 for 1520 (69.8%) with 97 touchdowns to 25 interceptions while not under pressure. You can’t blitz him. He’s too smart for that and he’s 362 for 572 (63.3%) and has thrown 35 touchdowns to 8 interceptions when blitzed over the last 3 plus seasons. But if you can him pressure and throw off his timing with 4 guys, he’s beatable because this offense is so reliant on timing.
The offensive line has already been less than stellar this season, ranking 12th in the league in pass block efficiency, which isn’t bad, but it’s not ideal. Mankins absence definitely doesn’t help that and he’ll be replaced with the inexperienced Donald Thomas, which leaves right guard Dan Connolly as the only experienced veteran on the offensive line, and he might be the least talented of the bunch. Buffalo has a good front 4, so it’s a concern.
Still, the Patriots have a huge talent advantage in this one. They may be 1-2, to Buffalo’s 2-1, but all 3 games they’ve played have been against tougher opponents than anyone Buffalo’s played (Tennessee/NY Jets is an argument). The Patriots’ last 2 losses have come by a combined 3 points and on top that of, they’ll be extra motivated coming off two straight losses. They’re deadly off a loss in general, but they haven’t lost three straight since 2002. It’ll be a challenge and a good game, but you have to think the Patriots still have the advantage, even banged up on the road.
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The Cincinnati Bengals rank 28th against the pass this year, allowing 8.5 YPA, and have been torched by every quarterback they’ve faced, including Brandon Weeden, who completed 26 of 37 for 322 yards and 2 scores against them, which represents by far his best statistical game of the season. Injuries have been a huge part of the problem. Cornerbacks Jason Allen and Dre Kirkpatrick have been injured, as has top pass rusher Carlos Dunlap. However, the injury situation has just been getting worse.
Dre Kirkpatrick remains out. Jason Allen and Carlos Dunlap returned last week, but the former lasted just 3 plays before reinjuring himself. He won’t play this week and most likely neither will cornerbacks Leon Hall and Nate Clements. Hall, who tore his Achilles last November, didn’t play last week and is unlikely to play this week. He made a very quick return for his torn Achilles and now is having problems in that same leg, so it’s very possible he came back too quickly. Even before he started missing games, he was getting torched uncharacteristically.
Missing Hall, Clements, Allen, and Kirkpatrick, the Bengals are now missing their top 4 cornerbacks, as well as rookie Shaun Prater, a 5th round pick who has been on IR all year. That leaves the Bengals to start Terence Newman and Adam Jones at cornerback this week with Chris Lewis-Harris working in sub packages. The undrafted rookie Lewis-Harris was just called up off the practice squad this week and could see a serious role this week in his NFL debut.
The good news is that Dunlap came back last week and didn’t have to leave with injury, like Allen. He and Michael Johnson combined for 14 total pressures, including 4 sacks. Dunlap is a great pass rusher, but that game by Johnson was inconsistent with what he normally does so it’s very likely that will be by far the best game of his season. It definitely helped that they were facing Washington’s offensive line, which struggles to begin with and then lost stud left tackle Trent Williams early in the game. This week, they face the Jaguars, who have had their issues in pass protection this year, but they return 2 starters, left guard Eben Britton and right tackle Cameron Bradfield, from injury in this one, which should help.
If Blaine Gabbert can get time, he should be able to move the ball on this pathetic, banged up secondary. He’ll also be aided by what should be a strong performance from Maurice Jones-Drew because the Bengals rank dead last against the run, also thanks to injury, but also some general underachieving in their front 7. This week’s game in Jacksonville isn’t as big as a lock as people think (the public is pounding Cincinnati) and given how well home dogs (which is what Jacksonville is) are playing this year and how much the public is getting killed this year (4-12 on heavy leans), the Bengals should be on upset alert this week.
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Austin Collie suffered a concussion this preseason, his 4th in the last 21 months, but it was a minor one and it looked like he would be back for week 1. He practiced before week 1, but was not cleared and the same thing happened week 2. It’s very likely he just did not get clearance from a doctor. This week, he went through the same routine at the beginning of the week, but it looks like he’s finally been cleared as the Colts have listed him as probable on their injury list.
It’s unclear what his role is, but the uncertain makes both him and Donnie Avery poor fantasy options this week. It’s worth noting that, before the injury, Collie was Andrew Luck’s favorite target in the preseason and the last time he had a capable quarterback, he ranked 9th in the league in yards per route run in 2010, before getting hurt. He should be owned in all leagues and monitored because he could end up being startable in the future as the #2 option on a good passing attack.
Meanwhile, top pass rusher Dwight Freeney is once again expected to miss this week. He’s been out since leaving week 1 with a high ankle sprain. Fortunately, the Colts have a bye next so there’s a good chance he’ll be back after that for week 5. The Jaguars, their opponent this week, are missing two starters on the offensive line so the Colts should be able to pressure Blaine Gabbert, who tend to struggle under pressure, often, even without Freeney. They still have Robert Mathis and 2010 1st round pick Jerry Hughes showed some live in Freeney’s absence last week, with a sack and 2 quarterback hurries.
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Darrelle Revis missed last week against the Steelers with a concussion and he was really missed as the Steelers beat the Jets 27-10 on the strength of a very strong performance from Ben Roethlisberger (24 of 31 for 275 yards and 2 touchdowns) that probably would not have happened if Revis were in the lineup. This week, however, the Jets get Revis back for a divisional clash with the Miami Dolphins.
The Dolphins put up 35 points on the board against a pathetic Raiders defense last week, but that probably won’t happen again this week. Reggie Bush won’t have the 172 yards and 2 touchdowns he had last week against a perennially good Jets run defense that held the Steelers to 66 yards on 28 carries last week, thanks to the return of stud nose tackle Sione Pouha. Meanwhile, Ryan Tannehill, who was 18 of 30 for 200 yards and a touchdown last week, will find life much harder without Bush exploding for a huge game and with Revis and Antonio Cromartie covering his crappy receivers instead of Patrick Lee and Shawntae Spencer.
Still, the Dolphins are at home and they have a sneaky good defense and have dating back to last year, when they ranked 6th in scoring. Mark Sanchez is coming off a horrendous game (10 of 27 for 138 yards and a touchdown) and if he continues to struggle, the Dolphins could win a close one at home. In won’t help that he’ll be without starting tight end Dustin Keller, his leading receiver in 2011, once again in this one. The Jets are also in a dreaded breather game situation as favorites before being underdogs and after losing as underdogs. Teams in that situation are 49-77 ATS since 2008. The Jets play the 49ers next week. The Jets should be on upset alert.
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As they were last week, the Cowboys will be without the middle of their offensive line and defensive line once again this week as center Phil Costa will miss with back problems and nose tackle Jay Ratliff will miss with an ankle problem. Costa left during their week 1 game against the Giants, while Ratliff has yet to play a snap this season after injuring himself in the preseason.
Ryan Cook, who was acquired from the Dolphins for a late round pick right before final cuts, will get the start once again at center. He played surprisingly well last week, but he represents a weakness on the offensive line for the Cowboys, as do new starters Mackenzy Bernadeau and Nate Livings. Livings was awful in 2011 with the Bengals and Bernadeau is a career backup and former 7th round pick so I have no idea why the Cowboys paid him starter’s money to start for them. In Ratliff’s absence, defensive end Sean Lissemore has played more inside, while Josh Price-Brent has been starting at nose tackle. Defense hasn’t really been an issue for the Cowboys so far this year, as they rank 10th in yards per play, but Ratliff was ProFootballFocus’ 7th rated defensive tackle last year, so the sooner he returns, the better.
The Cowboys will be without one other starter this week on defense, a new injury, as starting safety Gerald Sensabaugh is expected to miss. Sensabaugh is a solid starter at a position that is otherwise a weakness for the Cowboys. Mediocre starter Barry Church, who is also nursing an injury, will play and Danny McCray will play in the absence of Sensabaugh, who is listed as doubtful with a calf problem. It’s a weakness area.
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Steven Jackson left the game and did not return last week against the Redskins for reasons many thought were related to a penalty. However, the Rams denied that was the reason and denied a benching at all saying Jackson left the game with a groin injury. Almost a week later, that appears to be true and Jackson is reportedly going to be a game time decision. The good news for his fantasy owners is that the game is a 1 PM start so you’ll have your full lineup of options available if you find out before the game that he can’t go. Backup Daryl Richardson, who rushed for 83 yards on 15 carries in Jackson’s absence last week, should be owned in all formats and makes for a possible flex play if he starts, even against a tough Chicago defense.
Jackson isn’t the only injury St. Louis has to worry about. Eerily similar to what happened last year, the Rams are getting killed with injuries on the offensive line. Scott Wells is probably done for the season. He was signed to a 4 year, 24 million dollar deal this offseason to solidify the center position. Robert Turner, an unproven starter, moved from left guard to center to fill the void and then Turner’s replacement at left guard, 5th round rookie Rokevious Watkins, also got hurt. He will miss this week again, so veteran journeyman Quinn Ojinnaka will once again start in his absence. Meanwhile, oft injured left tackle Rodger Saffold will miss this week and a few more with a knee problem, meaning Wayne Hunter, who was awful with the Jets at right tackle last year, will start at left tackle.
The good news is that Sam Bradford was 8 of 13 with a touchdown under pressure last week, in spite of 2 drops. Good quarterbacks can succeed in spite of poor offensive lines. Bradford couldn’t do it last year, but the 2010 #1 overall pick really looks like a different quarterback this year. If that’s true, the Rams will remain competitive, as they have been so far this season. Bradford gets his toughest test yet this week against the Chicago Bears. One other injury note, rookie 1st round pick Michael Brockers will once again miss this week. He’s yet to play this season with a high ankle sprain and the Rams rank dead last against the run without him. Michael Bush, who will be the every down back in place of the injured Matt Forte, makes for a very intriguing fantasy option this week.
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The Packers were without Greg Jennings on Thursday Night Football with a groin injury and despite having 11 days between games, they are still unsure about the star receiver’s availability for Monday Night Football against the Seahawks. He’s been limited in practice all week, though, for what it’s worth, he says he’ll play, saying “It’s going to be something I’m going to have to push through right now. If I can get close to 100 percent, that’s all I’m looking for. I’m not looking to be 100 percent because that will never happen, ever, probably in my career. Ever.” The Packers have listed him as questionable.
At this point, it sounds more likely than not that he’ll be out there, but he will probably be limited and facing a tough Seattle defense, he’s less than an ideal fantasy option, especially since he does play on Monday Night Football. He doesn’t sound like a true game time decision, but if he’s a late scratch, you could be left without another option and he doesn’t have a true handcuff because in his absence, James Jones caught just 2 passes for -1 yards last week. Jones and Randall Cobb should continue to split snaps in his absence and cancel each other out in fantasy. Unless you have a startable option in that game (not a whole lot of those after Jordy Nelson, who should be in your lineup regardless), I’d say bench Jennings unless you absolutely have to start him.
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The Steelers have an early bye week this season, week 4, and it’s coming at the right time as they have several key players nursing injuries. However, before they can get to the bye, they’ll have to go to Oakland to play the Oakland Raiders without starting safety Troy Polamalu, starting outside linebacker James Harrison, and starting running back Rashard Mendenhall once again.
Harrison and Mendenhall both are yet to play this season with knee problems and Polamalu will miss his 2nd straight game this week with a calf problem. As talented as Mendenhall and Harrison are, Polamalu is the one they need healthy the most. The played well against the Jets last week without him, but prior to last week, over the last 3 years, when he plays, the Steelers are 27-8 and allow 14.4 points per game and without him, they’re 6-7 and allow 21.5 points per game. That’s not all him, but a lot of that is him. He’s their only irreplaceable defensive player and his mere presence can disrupt passing plays and running plays.
Still even without that trio, they have an obvious advantage on paper over the lowly Raiders, who are also very banged up with injuries and coming off an embarrassing 35-13 loss at the hands of the Miami Dolphins. The Steelers do have a tendency to fall flat on the road over the last 2 years, especially against inferior opponents. This team is -40 on the road since the start of last week, including playoffs, and +137 at home. They beat Indianapolis by just 3, Kansas City by just 4, and Cleveland by just 3 last year. However, heading into a bye, they should be very focused and dominate the Raiders as they’re supposed to. Road favorites of 3+ and home favorites of 7+ are a combined 34-18 ATS heading into a bye since 2002, as long as their opponent isn’t also heading into a bye.
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Football Fan Spot 