News

Seahawks expect to have Russell Okung back this week

stevenlourie News, Seahawks

He missed last week with a knee injury, but after practicing in full Saturday, it appears the oft injured left tackle Russell Okung will suit up for Monday Night Football against the Packers. Veteran journeyman Frank Omiyale did an admirable job in his absence last week, allowing just 1 quarterback hit on 25 pass block snaps and getting penalized once, but the Seahawks have to be happy that Okung is able to suit for this one. The 6th pick in the 2010 NFL Draft, Okung will likely see an awful lot of Clay Matthews this week and given the way he’s playing (7 sacks, 1 quarterback hit, and 2 quarterback pressures), there might not be a tougher matchup in the league at the moment.

The Seahawks would obviously like to get Okung going and healthy. He’s missed a lot of time in his first 2 plus years, but he’s definitely flashed. Playing 23 full games (including playoffs) out of a total 36 possible, Okung has allowed 9 sacks, 8 quarterback hits, 41 quarterback pressures and been penalized 16 times, all on the left side. If he can stay healthy here on out and finally reach his potential, it would be a huge boost for a largely subpar Seattle offensive line. For this week, however, coming off an injury, he’s at a huge disadvantage against Clay Matthews.

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Redskins list Pierre Garcon as doubtful, expect Josh Wilson to play, put two on IR

stevenlourie Commanders, News

The Redskins were dealt crippling blows to their defense last week, losing starting cornerback Josh Wilson, top pass rusher Brian Orakpo, and starting defensive lineman Adam Carriker in the game against St. Louis. The trio played 52, 18, and 2 of 71 snaps respectively. The Redskins’ poor defense had a ton of trouble stopping a Rams offense that isn’t great to begin with and after the game, they were forced to put Orakpo and Carriker on IR. Carriker’s loss isn’t huge. He’s a marginal starter and they have 2011 2nd round pick Jarvis Jenkins waiting in the wings. However, Orakpo was their best pass rusher and they had no depth behind him. The mediocre Rob Jackson, a 2008 7th round pick and a career backup, will take his place in the lineup, a huge downgrade.

The good news is that Wilson is expected to play this week despite suffering a concussion last week. He’ll continue to start opposite DeAngelo Hall. Neither of those cornerbacks are that great, but if Wilson had to miss and Cedric Griffin were forced to start, it would have been bad for the Redskins’ defense. Griffin is a decent nickel back, but he’s struggled when counted on to start in the past.

Luckily for the Redskins, they get an easy matchup at home against the Bengals this week. Cincinnati ranks 31st in points per play differential and their defense might be just as bad as the Redskins’ defense. Andy Dalton and compnay will move the ball in this one, but Robert Griffin should have another huge game in an eventual winning effort.

Griffin will be without top receiver Pierre Garcon again, but he didn’t miss him too much last week, completing 20 of 29 for 206 yards, 1 touchdown, and an interception, while rushing for another 82 yards and 2 scores against a solid Rams defense. The Redskins have plenty of wide receiver depth with Santana Moss, Aldrick Robinson, Josh Morgan, and Leonard Hankerson, who had the big game last week, catching 2 passes for 68 yards and a score. Unfortunately for Garcon owners in fantasy leagues, it’s still unclear who the Washington receiver to own in his absence his. 7 players had between 3 of 5 targets last week. They like to spread it around.

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Eagles rule Jeremy Maclin and King Dunlap out, place Jason Kelce on IR

stevenlourie Eagles, News

Heading into a surprisingly crucial match up with the Arizona Cardinals in Arizona, one of two this week between 2-0 teams in a league that has just 6 such teams remaining, the Eagles will be without several starters. Jeremy Maclin, who attempted to play through a hip injury last week, before having to leave again, has been ruled out, as have two starters on the offensive line, left tackle King Dunlap and center Jason Kelce, the latter of whom was placed on season ending IR with a torn ACL. However, in spite of this, the Eagles do have a significant advantage in Arizona.

The Eagles lead the league in points per play differential, which is my favorite stat because I feel it does the best job of predicting future success and of judging how teams have played in the past. The Eagles were without Maclin for most of last week, as he played just 44 of 80 snaps, and yet they were still able to total 485 yards against the Ravens in a win. They were also without Dunlap and Kelce, mediocre starters, for most of that game as well.

Demetress Bell, a proven starter in Buffalo, will replace Dunlap at left tackle, while the much less proven Dallas Reynolds will replace Kelce at center. Talent slot receiver Jason Avant and undrafted rookie Damaris Johnson will replace Maclin. They should still be able to beat a Cardinals team, which actually has a negative points differential, with ease.

The Cardinals have a good defense, but eventually they’ll have to do something offensively and right now they rank dead last in points per play. I don’t trust either of their quarterbacks (Kevin Kolb will get the start in this one against a Head Coach who knows all of his tendencies having coached him for several years) and neither of their running backs have gotten anything going on the ground. Meanwhile, their offensive line is still the horrendous line people were worried about before the season.

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It’s unclear how Lions will divide backfield carries with Mikel Leshoure returning

stevenlourie Lions, News

After serving a 2 game suspension and missing his entire rookie year with an Achilles tear, 2011 2nd round pick Mikel Leshoure is ready to finally make his regular season debut for the Lions. It’s known that he’ll get carries, but it’s unclear how many he’ll get and if he’ll start over Kevin Smith, who has rushed for 115 yards and a touchdown on 29 carries in 2 starts in Leshoure’s absence.

The Lions have only said that he will “certainly be involved heavily in the game plan and we’ll go from there,” which is about as vague as it gets, though some people in the know, such as ESPN.com’s Kevin Seifert and ESPN’s Chris Mortensen believe he’ll be heavily involved. It’s looking like a less than ideal situation in fantasy leagues so I wouldn’t start either until I had a better understanding of how the carries will be divided up, which should take at least a week. For what’s it’s worth, in the offseason, the plan was reportedly to use Leshoure like the Saints use Mark Ingram and Smith like the Saints use Pierre Thomas (with the currently injured Jahvid Best as Darren Sproles). That would make Leshoure the lead back and the goal line back.

It’s also unclear if Leshoure is healthy enough to add anything positive to their running game. Achilles injuries normally take more than a year to bounce back from and Leshoure didn’t look good in the preseason rushing for 44 yards on 20 carries. A player in a similar situation, 2011 2nd round pick Ryan Williams, has rushed for just 22 yards on 18 carries in 2 games and he looked better than Leshoure did in the preseason.

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Bengals expect to have Carlos Dunlap and Jason Allen back this week, not Dre Kirkpatrick

stevenlourie Bengals, News

The Bengals have been one of the worst teams in the NFL through two games, getting blown out in Baltimore against an overrated Ravens team that has uncharacteristically surrendered 808 yards in 2 games and then barely beating the terrible Browns in Cincinnati. They rank 31st in the NFL in yards per play differential.

A lot of their issues have been on the defensive side of the ball. They rank dead last in the NFL in yards per play allowed, 31st in yards per carry allowed, and 29th in yards per attempt allowed despite not battling the toughest group of quarterbacks. Those two are a combined 34 of 77 for 325 yards, 1 touchdowns, and 5 interceptions in their other games. Part of that has to do with their competition’s competition. Both Weeden and Flacco have also faced Philadelphia, one of the league best defenses, but Cincinnati has really done a poor job in pass coverage this year.

The biggest issue defensively for the Bengals has been injuries. They are without two key cornerbacks, free agent acquisition Jason Allen and rookie Dre Kirkpatrick. This has forced washed up veterans like Nate Clements and Terence Newman to see a ton of action in the secondary, next to a still not 100% Leon Hall. Hall is just 10 months removed from an Achilles tear and has been uncharacteristically torched in 2 games thus far, surrendering 10 completions for 143 yards and a touchdown on 14 attempts. They’ve also been without top pass rusher Carlos Dunlap.

The good news for the Bengals is that Dunlap and Allen will be back this week. The bad news is that Kirkpatrick is expected to be out until late October. They also lost every down linebacker Thomas Howard for a season with a torn ACL and could struggle to fill that hole. This week, they face a very tough Washington offense that even a solid St. Louis defense couldn’t do much to slow. This is their toughest test so far so even though they’re healthier than they’ve been, they could still get torched. It’ll be up to Andy Dalton and the offense to keep pace against a banged up Washington defense.

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Titans say Kenny Britt, Nate Washington will not be on a snap count this week, Colin McCarthy out

stevenlourie News, Titans

The Titans have had a less than optimal start to their season as they are currently one of just six 0-2 teams left in the NFL. They haven’t been competitive in either of their first 2 games and possess the league’s worst point differential at -49. However, they’ve had a very tough schedule early in the season and things are looking up, especially in the passing game. 1st time starting quarterback Jake Locker hasn’t been great in his first 2 games, completing 61.3% of his passes for an average of 6.5 YPA and 2 touchdowns to 2 interceptions, but he’s been working with a receiving corps that’s seen far too much of rookie Kendall Wright and mediocre talent Damian Williams, who lead the unit in snaps played.

This week, Locker will have Kenny Britt and Nate Washington, arguably his top 2 receivers, back at full strength. Britt missed the opener with suspension and then was on a snap count last week, playing just 19 snaps. Washington left the opener with an injury and then was on a snap count last week, playing just 22 snaps. This week, both are much closer to full strength and will not be on a snap count. Expect both to be starters, leaving Kendall Wright in the slot as a 3rd receiver.

Britt has caught 56 passes for 1146 yards and 12 touchdowns over his last 13 full games over the last 2 seasons. Only 24, he should be able to bounce back from a pretty major injury. Meanwhile, Washington was their leading receiver last year in Britt’s absence, catching 74 passes for 1023 yards and 7 touchdowns. Between those two, the rookie Wright in the slot, and tight end Jared Cook, an above average pass catcher, Locker will have one of the better receiving corps in the NFL. Facing a banged up Detroit secondary that wasn’t very good to begin with, he should be able to move the ball much easier this week than in recent weeks now in his 3rd NFL start. He should also get much more help from Chris Johnson this week. Johnson has been prone to dud performances in the last 2 years, but he’s destroyed bad run defenses, rushing for 100 yards in 4 of 5 games against run defenses ranked in the bottom 3rd last season. Detroit ranked 30th.

The bad news for the Titans is that 2nd year linebacker Colin McCarthy will also miss this week. The young linebacker is the leader of their defense and they have definitely missed him as they’ve been torched in each of their first 2 games. Tom Brady and Philip Rivers have represented tough challenges so far for this defense, but Matt Stafford and the Lions aren’t exactly a walk in the park. It remains to be seen if their young defense (8 of 11 starters drafted since 2009) can find their 2011 form (8th in scoring defense) now without Cortland Finnegan (signed in St. Louis) and McCarthy (injured). This game figures to be a high scoring one, but the Titans may be able to pull the upset at home over the Lions if the Lions come in flat off an emotional week 2 loss to the 49ers and expect to walk all over the “lowly” Titans.

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Lions expect Bill Bentley and Chris Houston back, not Louis Delmas

stevenlourie Lions, News

The Lions’ defense has been pretty awful through 2 games, particularly through the air, ranking 22nd in YPA, allowing 37 of 56 for 374 yards, 3 touchdowns, and no interceptions. That might not sound awful, but neither of the quarterbacks they’ve faced, Alex Smith or Sam Bradford, are really that great. That’s also in spite of one of the best pass rushes in the league.

The Lions are expected to be healthier in the secondary this week, returning Chris Houston and Bill Bentley from injury. However, they’re still not at 100% and it’s not like they were a good pass defense before injuries. They were 23rd in scoring defense last year. Houston is decent, but Bentley is a 3rd round rookie. Those 2 will work with Jacob Lacey, a mediocre talent, at cornerback, while their safeties will be Erik Coleman and either Amari Spievey or John Wendling. Wendling started last week, but got destroyed by Vernon Davis and was benched for Spievey who was terrible last year. It’s unclear who will start this week, but it probably doesn’t matter. Louis Delmas, who is still injured, is really missed there.

A poor passing defense still not at full strength, they be a welcome sight for Jake Locker this week. Locker has struggled in 2 games against San Diego and New England, but this is a much easier test. On top of that, the Lions struggle to stop the run and Chris Johnson, as many duds as he’s had in the last year plus, has rushed for 100+ yards 4 times in 5 games against teams ranked in the bottom 3rd against the run, which the Lions did last year.

Locker, now more comfortable in his 3rd start, will also get top receiver Kenny Britt back in a full time role. Remember, Britt, not yet 24 years old, has caught 56 passes for 1146 yards and 12 touchdowns in his full last 13 games. The Lions have the talent edge, but they could be flat off an emotional loss to the 49ers against a “lowly” 0-2 team, and they’re on the road. The Lions, just 6-8 in their last 14 games, should be on upset alert.

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Chargers expect to have Ryan Mathews and Antonio Gates back this week, not Jared Gaither

stevenlourie Chargers, News

Normally slow starters, the Chargers are 2-0 this season and doing it in a year when a lot of people wrote them off after 2 straight seasons without the postseason and with the team possessing many holes on paper. Philip Rivers might be the MVP of the league for the first 2 games, leading this team to a 2-0 record despite not having much help. He’s completed 73.8% of his passes for an average of 7.9 YPA and 4 touchdowns to 1 interception.

He’s playing behind the league’s worst offensive line in terms of pass block efficiency and he’s doing it while throwing to Malcom Floyd, Robert Meachem (just kidding, no one ever throws to Robert Meachem), and one game of Antonio Gates. His running game isn’t helping him much either as none of their backs have really gotten much going in Ryan Mathews’ absence. They are averaging just 3.1 YPC.

The good news for Rivers is that Mathews will be back this week. Mathews is injury prone, but he’s one of the most talented backs in the league and they were planning on using him as an everything back so he should definitely help their offense. Gates is also expected back. He should reprise his role as Rivers’ favorite target. The Chargers will need them both as they face their toughest test so far as the also 2-0 Atlanta Falcons come to town.

The bad news is that Jared Gaither, who was supposed to be their left tackle, is reportedly closer to being put on IR than to returning. Gaither hasn’t practiced in months with back spasms and given his history of back problems, that’s very concerning. When healthy, Gaither is an elite left tackle. With the Ravens, in 2009, he allowed just 4 sacks, 3 quarterback hits, and 6 quarterback hurries, while committing 10 penalties in 13 games and in 2008, he allowed just 2 sacks, 2 quarterback hits, and 22 quarterback hurries while committing 15 penalties in 19 games. Gaither was amazing in 5 starts last season for the Chargers, after being cut midseason by the Chiefs. He didn’t allow a sack or quarterback hit and only allowed 3 quarterback hurries, while committing just 3 penalties.

The Chargers rewarded him with a 4 year, 24.6 million dollar deal with 13.5 million guaranteed this offseason. That may seem like a lot to pay, but franchise left tackles do not grow on trees. There’s a reason they’re never available on the open market. Seeing one available is almost as rare as seeing a franchise quarterback on the open market. If Gaither were to stay healthy, that deal would have been a steal. However, now it’s looking like that could very well not happen. In his absence, undrafted rookie Mike Harris has looked like an undrafted rookie left tackle, surrendering 11 quarterback hurries, most in the league. He’s also been penalized twice and is overall rated as ProFootballFocus’ 66th rated offensive tackle out of 71. He’ll deal with John Abraham this week as he looks to get it going. The active leader in sacks has just 1 sack, 1 quarterback hit, and 1 quarterback hurry through 2 games.

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Jaguars to be without Cameron Bradfield, Eben Britton, and Daryl Smith again, Derek Cox to be limited

stevenlourie Jaguars, News

The Jaguars have been one of the worst teams in the league over the first 2 games of the season. Blaine Gabbert looked functional against a weak defense in Minnesota week 1, leading them to a near win. completing 23 of 39 for 260 yards, 2 touchdown, and no interceptions. Minnesota’s secondary is crap, but I was very impressed with Gabbert’s poise under pressure. I didn’t like the matchup for Gabbert because of his struggles under pressure last season. Minnesota has one of the league’s best pass rushes and they lived up to their billing, pressured Gabbert on 18 of 43 drop backs, but Gabbert only took 2 sacks and completed 9 of 15 on those 18 drop backs (3 runs).

Against Houston, however, Gabbert finished 7-19 for 53 yards, after leaving with an injury and in the middle of the 3rd quarter, he was averaging less than 1 yard per pass attempt. His pocket presence regressed as he was pressured on 8 of 23 drop backs, scrambling once, taking 3 sacks and going 1 for 4. He won’t face a defense as good as Houston’s every week, but he won’t face one as bad as Minnesota’s every week either. Overall, the Jaguars are 0-2 and rank 30th in yards per play differential.

Part of the problem has been injuries, but don’t expect them to be much healthier this week. The Jaguars will once again be without two starters on their offensive line, right tackle Cameron Bradfield and left guard Eben Britton, and defensively, top linebacker Daryl Smith is once again out. #1 cornerback Derek Cox is expected to play, but he will be limited and only see the field on passing downs. Injuries have turned this defense from respectable to horrible. Offensively, Blaine Gabbert cannot be trusted, especially behind a banged up offensive front and Maurice Jones-Drew, who had 47.7% of their offensive yards last year, most by a non-quarterback since OJ Simpson in 1974, is not the same as last year. Expect the Colts to win this week because at least they have one redeeming quality, the quarterback position.

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Raiders getting destroyed by injuries, could move Michael Huff to cornerback

stevenlourie News, Raiders

I called the Raiders overrated before the season and said they were one of the worst teams in the league and an ugly 35-13 loss to the Dolphins is making that look pretty good. The new regime has a lot of promise, but they inherited a mess, an 8 win team (with a Pythagorean Expectation of 6 wins for stat nerds) that was above the cap and didn’t have very many draft picks. Whether or not the future is bright remains to be seen, but the present is pretty bad.

On top of all that, they’ve been destroyed by injuries. Linebacker Aaron Curry is expected to miss the entire season, while top cornerback Ronald Bartell will miss at least 6 weeks after being put on non-season ending IR. Shawntae Spencer, another starting cornerback, will also miss this week, as could middle linebacker Rolando McClain. McClain’s potential absence hurts as he’s one of their best defensive players and plays in a unit already starting a 4th round rookie. Travis Goethel, an inexperienced 2010 5th round pick, would start in his absence if he couldn’t go. He’s been practiced in spite of a concussion, but it’s unclear if he’s been given the necessary medical clearance to play. If he can’t obtain that by Sunday, it won’t matter that he practiced this week.

Spencer, meanwhile, isn’t very good, but he was a starter at a very thin position to begin with. After failing to return everyone at the position who played a single snap for them in 2011, the Raiders have lost their top two cornerbacks with injury and will likely start Patrick Lee and Phillip Adams in this one. Yeah, good luck containing Mike Wallace and Antonio Brown this week, as they take on the Pittsburgh Steelers. The Raiders know they’re thin at cornerback, so they’re considering moving safety Michael Huff there, at least in certain situations, this week, but I don’t know if that will help. Huff hasn’t played cornerback since college, so he might not be any better and that would leave them short a starter at safety, one of the few positions where they actually have talent.

Offensively, they are expected to be without right tackle Khalif Barnes this week. Barnes isn’t great or anything, but replacement Willie Smith was horrendous last week after Barnes left the game. They’re already the 8th ranked offensive line in pass blocking efficiency and that will only get worse this week as they face a tough Pittsburgh pass rush. The Steelers tend to flat fall on the road, as they are -40 on the road since the beginning of last year, including playoffs, and +137 at home. They beat Indianapolis by just 3, Kansas City by just 4, and Cleveland by just 3 last year. However, they’re heading into a bye and good teams tend to be very focused and cover heading into a bye. Road favorites of 3+ and home favorites of 7+ are a combined 34-18 ATS heading into a bye since 2002, as long as their opponent isn’t also heading into a bye. I have a hard time seeing the Raiders avoiding on 0-3 hole this week.

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