News

Steelers list Rashard Mendenhall as doubtful, expect both injured offensive linemen to play

stevenlourie News, Steelers

Rashard Mendenhall did some work in practice for the 2nd straight week, just 9 months removed from a torn ACL, but he is once again very unlikely to play this week. When they first activated him off the PUP, the plan was for him to sit for the first 3 weeks of the season, do a little work in practice with the team to get back into shape, and then to return week 5 after their bye. So far, everything seems to have gone according to plan, so we won’t see him this week or next week.

In his absence, Isaac Redman and Jonathan Dwyer predictably split carries, but Dwyer definitely outshined him, totaling 47 yards on 11 touches, as opposed to 22 yards on 13 touches for Redman. As a result, head coach Mike Tomlin has said that Dwyer will get an expandable role this week, as he did as the game progressed last week. Expect him to start and if you are going to start one of these backs in fantasy, Dwyer is your man, though neither is advisable unless you absolutely need to because they should basically cancel each other out against a normally stout Jets run defense that returns Sione Pouha from injury this week.

The good news for the Steelers is that both of their injured offensive linemen, Ramon Foster and Marcus Gilbert, who left last week’s game, are expected to play. In their absences, Doug Legursky and Mike Adams struggled and the Steelers were down to their last healthy, active offensive linemen. Ben Roethlisberger’s protection should be better this week, unless someone else gets hurt, facing an Jets’ inferior pass rush. The Broncos’ strong pass rush pressured Roethlisberger on 18 of 46 drop backs last week, the 5th highest rate in the league. It’s a welcome relief for a Steelers’ offensive line that saw 1st round pick rookie David DeCastro suffer a potentially season ending injury in the preseason and 2nd round pick rookie Mike Adams lose his starting job to veteran Max Starks.

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Cardinals will start Kevin Kolb this week

stevenlourie Cardinals, News

With John Skelton nursing a high ankle sprain that could keep him out 2-4 weeks, it appears Ken Whisenhunt has had his quarterback controversy solved for him as Kevin Kolb will start this week and possibly into the future. Kolb was actually the superior of the two quarterbacks last season. Kolb led 91 drives, leading to 20 touchdowns and 6 field goals (138 points, 1.52 points per drive).

Skelton led 100 drives last season and the Cardinals scored 16 touchdowns and 11 field goals (129 points, 1.29 points per drive) on those 100 drives. Kolb also outplayed him statistically. He completed 146 of 253 (57.7%) for 1955 yards (7.7 YPA), 9 touchdowns, and 8 interceptions. Skelton completed just 151 for 275 (54.9%) for 1913 yards (7.0 YPA), 11 touchdowns, and 14 interceptions. Skelton was 6-2 in the 8 games he played the majority of the snaps, while Kolb was 2-6, but Skelton had the luxury of playing most of his games supported by better defensive play. In Skelton’s 8 games, the Cardinals allowed 19.0 points per game and in Kolb’s they allowed 24.5.

Either way though, the Cardinals would appear to be pretty screwed this week going into New England and going forward into the season in general. Kolb’s 1.52 points per drive was equal to Washington’s last season and they ranked 22nd, while Skelton’s 1.29 was between Denver’s (1.38) and Indianapolis’ (1.24). They ranked 27th and 28th respectively last season.

They may be 1-0, after beating the Seahawks in Arizona, but that’s not a huge accomplishment because the Seahawks were starting a 3rd round rookie quarterback with a subpar offensive line and a mediocre receiving corps and because the Seahawks suck on the road. Things get much tougher for them going forward and no matter who the quarterback is, they figure to be one of the worst teams in the league.

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Titans’ Jake Locker and Kenny Britt to play this week, Nate Washington, Colin McCarthy unlikely

stevenlourie News, Titans

Jake Locker went down with an injury to his non-throwing shoulder last week against the Patriots, but he’s been practicing all week and will start. As he returns, he gets Kenny Britt back from suspension, but loses Nate Washington, likely, with an injury of his own. Britt is an incredibly talented player who has caught 56 passes for 1146 yards and 12 touchdowns in his last 13 games. He’ll probably be limited to just passing downs, with Kendall Wright and Damian Williams working as the starters, as he comes off a knee injury, but he’s still talented enough to make an impact with a limited snap count.

Locker completed 23 of 32 for 229 yards, 1 touchdown, and 1 interception last week before going down with an injury, despite a rough day from Nate Washington, who only caught 2 of 7 targets, dropping 3. Locker’s adjusted QB rating, which takes into account drops, non-targets (throw aways, spikes, etc), and YAC, was 95.3 in the opener, 10th best in the league last week. With Britt coming in, even with Washington going out, he should be able to have another good game this week.

I still believe the Titans are a sleeper team; they just ran into possibly the best team in the league in the opener. They had the league’s 8th ranked scoring defense last year, despite having 6 of 11 starters in their 3rd year or younger. That continued growth and maturity, as well as their cornerback depth, and the addition of Kamerion Wimbley and potential breakout of Derrick Morgan as much needed pass rushers would cancel out the loss of Cortland Finnegan.

Offensively, I felt they should continue to have one of the best passing blocking offensive lines, led by bookend tackles Michael Roos and David Stewart and I felt their run blocking would be better with Steve Hutchinson replacing Jake Scott at guard. Meanwhile, I felt Chris Johnson would be back to his old self. Chris Johnson averaged 3.0 YPC in his first 8 games last season after missing most of the offseason with a new coaching staff coming in and also getting out of shape. However, he averaged 4.8 YPC the rest of the way and put in a ton of work this offseason to get back into tip top shape, attending every single one of the Titans’ offseason activities, even the optional ones (OTAs) which he would normally skip in order to train at home in Orlando.

They also have Kenny Britt returning from injury. Britt missed 13 ½ games with injury last year, but he’s still only 24 (later this month) and the 2009 1st round pick has 56 catches for 1146 yards and 12 touchdowns in his last 13 full games. In 2010, when Britt was healthy (11 games) and Chris Johnson was still his old self, the Titans averaged 27.1 points per game in those 11 games. That number is a little skewed because the Titans had an unrealistically low yards per point ratio, but the point is, when they have all their offensive weapons, they can put points on the board.

Since then, Nate Washington and Jared Cook have broken out in Britt’s absence and the latter could be even better this year after catching 21 passes for 335 yards and a touchdown in his final 3 years last year. They also add 1st round pick Kendall Wright as a 3rd receiver. On top of that, they’ve made an obvious upgrade at quarterback going from Kerry Collins and Vince Young to Matt Hasselbeck and now to Jake Locker, who led them to 1.83 points per drive last year, as opposed to 1.63 points per drive for Hasselbeck (albiet in limited action).

Basically, I felt the same way about the Titans that I did at that point last year about the Lions, who proved me right. And you know what, none of that has really changed. I’m a little bit more worried about Chris Johnson now and the injury to Nate Washington hurts, but they should be able to pull off an upset victory against a Charger team that perennially underachieves in September and October. One other injury that hurts is to linebacker Colin McCarthy, who had a very solid season as a rookie last year, but that won’t kill them. Talented 2nd round rookie Zach Brown will step into the lineup for him.

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Steelers to be without James Harrison, probably Troy Polamalu this week

stevenlourie News, Steelers

When the Steelers play the Jets this week, the Jets will be without a key defensive player, Darrelle Revis, but the Steelers will also be without a key defensive player and maybe even two. James Harrison, who was supposed to play last week, will miss his 2nd straight week after having supposedly minor knee surgery last month. Now reports say that he might not play at all until after the Steelers’ week 4 bye. In his absence, 2011 5th round pick Chris Carter played last week and didn’t do much. He’ll start again and split snaps with Jason Worilds, another young pass rusher.

Polamalu’s injury is more serious because of what he means to that defense. The Steelers have a great defense, but no player is more important to their defense than him. Over the last 3 years, when he plays, the Steelers are 27-8 and allow 14.4 points per game and without him, they’re 6-7 and allow 21.5 points per game. That’s not all him, but a lot of that is him. He’s their only irreplaceable defensive player and his mere presence can disrupt passing plays and running plays.

I made the argument for an improved Steeler defense before the season, improved even off their league leading scoring defense last year. I noted that they had just 15 turnovers last year and that since 2002, 38 teams have had 20 or fewer takeaways in a season. Those teams had, on average, 7.53 more takeaways and won 1.41 more games the following season.

They also had several key injuries on defense last year. Both outside linebackers James Harrison and LaMarr Woodley missed time, which forced Jason Worilds to step into the starting lineup and Lawrence Timmons to move from inside linebacker to outside linebacker. Worilds did fine, though he certainly wasn’t as good as Woodley or Harrison would have been, but Timmons was awful. Clearly not a natural pass rusher, he had just 2 quarterback hits and 1 quarterback pressure on 114 pass rush snaps in 4 starts, a pathetic 2.6% rate. Timmons was ProFootballFocus’ highest rated middle linebacker in 2010, so him being inside for all 16 games will definitely help their defense. Even if it wasn’t improved, they looked poised for their SEVENTH top-3 scoring defense since 2004.

However, the Steelers could have all that derailed if their most important and irreplaceable defensive player misses several games with injury or starts to show his age at all at age 31. He didn’t show his age in the opener, but he’s very likely to miss at least one game, as he didn’t practice all week with a calf problem. The last time the Steelers missed the playoffs and didn’t have a top-3 scoring defense was in 2009, when Polamalu missed 11 games.

It’s not a huge concern yet because it’s only one game so far and they should be able to beat the Jets, who still have an inconsistent quarterback and whose “offensive explosion” last week, was a result of the Bills’ offense giving them great field position all night, a pick six, a punt return touchdown, and the Bills’ defense quitting after going down big early. The Jets are also hurt by the injury to top cornerback Darrelle Revis, who might be as irreplaceable to them as Polamalu is to the Steelers. The situation is definitely one to monitor going forward past this week, however.

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Could Packers trade Greg Jennings?

stevenlourie News, Packers

A stir was caused this week when respected beat writer Bob McGinn of the Milwaukee Journal-Sentinel said that the Packers would be “wise” to shop Greg Jennings ahead of the trade deadline. Jennings is heading into the final year of his contract and could get the Packers a 2nd round pick, according to McGinn. Also according to McGinn, Jennings may want Larry Fitzgerald money on the open market, which would be 8 years 120 million. We saw Mike Wallace try and fail to get that kind of money this offseason, proving how tough it is to get that type of money unless you’re Larry Fitzgerald or Calvin Johnson, but Jennings should get at least the 5 years 55 million dollar that Vincent Jackson got last offseason on the open market.

Jennings has been an incredibly productive receiver over the past few years, catching 389 passes for 6171 yards and 49 touchdowns, but he wouldn’t be worth that to the Packers. The Packers don’t like to commit big money to guys and have plenty of receiving depth with Jordy Nelson, James Jones, and Randall Cobb, so it makes sense that they could let him leave, heading into his age 30 season in 2013. There’s also his health issue with 3 concussions as a pro on his record. He’s unlikely to be anywhere near this productive elsewhere, as he’s only ever had Aaron Rodgers or Brett Favre throwing him the football, and any team that signs him to a giant contract would be making a bad deal.

Still, trading him wouldn’t make any sense. The Packers are built to win now and Jennings is definitely an asset to a Super Bowl run. It wouldn’t be worth a 2nd round pick for the Packers to “hedge their bet” in a year where they could easily win it all. The Steelers might have been able to get a 2nd for Mike Wallace, but they wouldn’t have traded him for that, even though he was holding out, because giving yourself the best chance to win a Super Bowl now is worth more than a 2nd round pick later. I would be shocked if the Packers made this kind of move midseason, barring some unforeseen major early season struggles that knocked them out of Super Bowl contention.

Plus, I just don’t understand why Jennings would want to leave. Sure, he’ll probably have to take less money to stay, but playing for a team like the Packers with Aaron Rodgers throwing you the football is a wide receiver’s dream and it’s a lot of money either way. Jennings needs the Packers more than the Packers need him. One option that would make a lot of sense for both sides is the franchise tag, which the Packers should have available next offseason, with no other major free agents to lock up.

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Raiders’ get Stefen Wisniewski and Denarius Moore back, put Jacoby Ford and Ron Bartell on IR

stevenlourie News, Raiders

Already thin at cornerback, the Raiders were dealt another blow when they lost starter Ron Bartell for at least 6 weeks, as they put him on the injured reserve recall list, meaning he’ll miss at least 6 weeks. Bartell was signed as a free agent off the bargain rack by the cap troubled and cornerback troubled Raiders this offseason. Once a starter in St. Louis, Bartell missed all of last season with injuries, so this is not a good sign for him.

Having lost every cornerback who played a snap for them last season this offseason, the Raiders attempted to rebuild the cornerback position this offseason and were counting on Bartell as a starter, opposite Shawntae Spencer, another bargain rack guy. Now with Bartell out, the Raiders will turn to Patrick Lee, who has one career start, to be their starting cornerback. Final cut of the Eagles’ Joselio Hanson will continue to man the slot.

The Raiders also lost their top pass rusher, Kamerion Wimbley, this offseason and were counting on Matt Shaughnessy returning from injury to lead their pass rush, but they pressured Philip Rivers on just 10 of his 34 drop backs last week in a home loss to the Chargers, even though San Diego’s offensive line isn’t very good. The Raiders travel across the country on short rest for an early game against the Dolphins this week in the heat. Ryan Tannehill struggled last week, if there was ever a game for him to play well, it’s this one. The Raiders’ defense was 29th in scoring last year and could end up being even worse this season, when all is said and done.

The Raiders also put another player on IR, wide receiver and return man Jacoby Ford. Ford was not put on injured reserve recall, because teams are only allowed one of those, so he’s done for the year. A talented return man and a speedy receiver, Ford has struggled with injury problems throughout his career. In his absence, undrafted free agent Rod Streater, who did not live up to the hype in his first game, will play in the slot. Taiwan Jones and Phillip Adams will return kicks.

The good news is that the Raiders will get back starting wide receiver Denarius Moore this week, though hamstring injuries tend to linger. Also returning for the Raiders is center Stefen Wisniewski, who will hopefully add some life to a running game that managed just 45 yards on 20 carries in the opener, despite having Darren McFadden.

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Jaguars likely to be without 4 starters this week, Rashad Jennings out as well

stevenlourie Jaguars, News

The Jaguars had a nice little opener in a near road win over the Minnesota Vikings Blaine Gabbert looked serviceable, completing 23 of 39 for 260 yards, 2 touchdown, and no interceptions. Minnesota’s secondary is crap, but I was very impressed with Gabbert’s poise under pressure. I didn’t like the matchup for Gabbert because of his struggles under pressure last season. Minnesota has one of the league’s best pass rushes and they lived up to their billing, pressured Gabbert on 18 of 43 drop backs, but Gabbert only took 2 sacks and completed 9 of 15 on those 18 drop backs (3 runs).

However, they may find things much tougher this week as they head home to face the Houston Texans, who might be the most complete team in the NFL. Making life even harder is the fact that they may be without 4 starters with injury. Starting right tackle Cameron Bradfield left the Vikings’ game with an injury and replacement Guy Whimper, who really struggled last season as a starter, predictably got destroyed, surrendered 1 sack, 1 quarterback hit, 4 quarterback hurries on 35 pass block snaps, while committing 2 penalties.

Starting left guard Eben Britton is also unlikely to go, which would leave undrafted free agent Mike Brewster to start at left guard. Gabbert will be under pressure all night and if he reverts to his old habits, he could really struggle, especially against Houston’s secondary. Even if he continues to show poise in the pocket, the Jaguars will probably still have trouble moving the ball against a tough Houston defense.

The Jaguars also have injuries on the defensive side of the ball. Daryl Smith and Derek Cox did not suit up for the opener and might not play again this week. Smith was ProFootballFocus’ 2nd ranked outside linebacker last season, only behind Von Miller, while Derek Cox was a real shutdown cornerback in limited action in his 3rd year in the league last year, before going out with injuries.

Cox, a surprise 3rd round pick in the 2009 NFL Draft, didn’t play well as a starter in either 2009 or 2010, but was awesome to start the season last year. He allowed just 9 completions on 28 attempts (32.1%) for 105 yards (3.8 YPA), no touchdowns, and no interceptions, while deflecting 3 passes and being penalized once. His 44.5 QB rating would have been 2nd in the league had he had enough snaps to qualify. If he can stay healthy and keep that up over an entire season, he’ll emerge as one of the top cornerbacks in the league, but those are pretty big ifs, especially now that he’s missed 1 game and maybe more. In the opener, replacements Aaron Ross and Kyle Bosworth predictably struggled. If the Jaguars couldn’t stop the Vikings, they’re going to have a lot of trouble stopping the Texans.

Also expected to miss this game is Rashad Jennings. Jennings is not a starter, so he’s not as important to their chances of winning on Sunday, but it’s an important note for fantasy football players. Maurice Jones-Drew will carry the load completely in his 2nd game back and the Jaguars have said he’s not an a pitch count, so expect him to get most, if not all of the carries, as primary backup Montell Owens has just 14 career carries. Still, don’t get too excited about him in fantasy leagues, as Houston has a tough run defense and MJD doesn’t seem to have his legs back under him yet. Start him, but don’t count on him to carry your team. Likewise, the Jaguars can’t count on him to carry their team like they did last year.

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Jets rule out Darrelle Revis and Dustin Keller, expect Sione Pouha back

stevenlourie Jets, News

The Jets got a surprising 48-28 victory over the Bills in their opener, but improving to 2-0 may prove to be very tough for them, especially without their top defensive player, Darrelle Revis, who has been ruled out for this week’s clash with the Steelers with a concussion. In his absence, Kyle Wilson will start and cover Antonio Brown, one of the AFC’s premier receivers, while Antonio Cromartie will be on Mike Wallace.

Brown has been the Steelers’ top receiver over their last 10 games, including playoffs, catching 44 passes for 821 yards, while Wallace has caught 36 passes for 456 yards over that same period. Wallace, still working his way into the system after missing most of the offseason with a holdout, will continue to function as primarily a deep decoy, opening things up underneath. With Wallace having to deal with Antonio Cromartie this week, with Brown being covered primarily by a backup, expect Brown to once again lead the Steelers in receiving. The good news for the Jets is the get Sione Pouha back from injury. Without their stud run stuffing nose tackle, the Jets surrendered 195 yards on 26 carries on the ground to the Bills last week.

As for the Jets’ offense, in the opener, they scored 48 points, but 14 of those were by defense and special teams, and the other 34 were aided by strong field position. The Jets had the 11th most yards in the league last week, while having the 12th most time of possession. All of a sudden, that offensive “explosion” doesn’t sound so good. There’s also the issue of Mark Sanchez’ inconsistencies; those don’t go away just because he had one nice game, especially since his top receiver is a 2nd round rookie, who by his nature will be inconsistent.

Sanchez will also be hurt this week by the absence of tight end Dustin Keller with injury and he won’t find live as easy because their defense won’t dominate the Steelers’ offense like they did the Bills’, especially without Revis. The Steelers’ defense, meanwhile, provides a much tougher test for the Jets’ offensively than the Bills did last week, even without James Harrison and possibly Troy Polamalu. Meanwhile, the Steelers are a much better team at home than on the road, where they lost in Denver last week. Last year, they were -22 on the road last year and +120 at home. Back home, they should have a bounce back game, especially since they won’t be playing a no huddle offense in high altitude.

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Chargers expect Antonio Gates, Quentin Jammer to play, Ryan Mathews to be a game-time decision

stevenlourie Chargers, News

The Chargers are one of the most banged up teams in the league right now. Last week against the Raiders, they had to start an undrafted free agent at left tackle on an already weak offensive line because Jared Gaither is out indefinitely with back spasms. They were also without Vincent Brown, their top receiver in Training Camp, and Philip Rivers never looked comfortable throwing to Robert Meachem and Malcom Floyd, completing 24 of 33 for 231 yards and a score against an incredibly thin Oakland secondary.

Rivers isn’t helped by his offensive line’s deficiencies, though they did do a decent job in the opener of protecting him, as Rivers was pressured on just 10 of 34 drop backs, and he also isn’t helped by their inability to run the ball. Missing Ryan Mathews, who was supposed to be their everything back, the Chargers managed just 32 yards on 20 carries, led at running back by a duo of the washed up Ronnie Brown and the mediocre Curtis Brinkley.

Brown and Gaither will miss this week as well and are out indefinitely (Brown is out for at least 6 weeks), but Ryan Mathews has yet to be ruled out. Even still, it doesn’t sound promising for him. Reports have been varied, but trusted beat writer Michael Gehlken, of the Union-Tribune San Diego, who attends all practices and press conferences, believes Mathews will once again be inactive. At the very most, he’ll be a game time decision.

The Chargers also have two new injuries to worry about, Antonio Gates and Quentin Jammer, though both are expected to play. Gates has a rib problem that has caused him to miss some practice this week, but he normally plays through injuries, so expect him out there playing through the pain, good news for Rivers since he’s his most trusted target in a thin receiving corps. Jammer, meanwhile, has a broken hand, but is also expected to play through it, wearing a cast. Jammer, a declining player at age 33, had a nice opener, but a broken hand will hurt his ability to tackle and be physical with wide receivers, so the Titans could throw on him with some ease this week, especially if the aged corner proves last week was a fluke.

Jammer’s presence is necessary though, as nickel cornerback Shareece Wright will miss this week with an ankle problem, which would have left the inexperienced Marcus Gilchrist, a 2011 2nd round pick, to start and someone signed off the streets to man the nickel as the Chargers only carry 4 cornerbacks. Instead, Gilchrist will just take Wright’s spot in the slot, which isn’t a huge downgrade.

Still, with all these injuries and their history early in the season, it’s definitely possible they could be caught off guard and upset by the underrated Titans this week. If it wasn’t for an injury to the Raiders’ long snapper last week, they could have lost to a Raider team that I think is one of the worst in the league. That win reminded me of their 4-1 start last season. The Chargers were able to beat up on a cupcake schedule last year early, beating Minnesota by 7, Kansas City by 3, Miami by 10, and Denver (prebow) by 5. However, once they started playing real teams, things got a lot harder for them and they actually went on a 6 game losing streak. The Titans are a real team, so the Chargers have to be careful.

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Lions expect to be without Louis Delmas, Chris Houston, and Bill Bentley this week

stevenlourie 49ers, News

One of the big questions of the 2012 season is can Alex Smith prove he’s a true franchise quarterback, now that the 49ers have gotten him some weapons and now that he’s had a full offseason in Harbaugh’s scheme. Jim Harbaugh did a great job of turning him from lost cause to game manager last season, but history shows that teams can’t win on a consistent basis following the good defense, good running game, don’t make mistakes model (see pre-Cutler Bears or pre-Flacco Ravens). You can have a good year or even a great year, but it’s very tough to maintain consistent year to year success in the NFL without a true franchise quarterback.

Smith certainly looked like a franchise quarterback in the opener, completing 20 of 26 for 211 yards and 2 touchdowns, leading the 49ers to an upset victory over the Packers in Lambeau 30-22. However, the Packers were blowing coverages left and right so it’s tough to get a conclusive answer from that game. It’ll probably be tough to get a conclusive answer from this week’s game either as the 49ers head home to take on the Lions and their incredibly banged up secondary.

Already with a weak secondary heading into the season, a big part of the reason for their 23rd ranked scoring defense last year, the Lions have been plagued by injuries in that area in which they were already weakest. Top cornerback Chris Houston and starting safety Louis Delmas both missed the opener and are expected to miss this week as well, very bad news since those were the Lions’ only two decent defensive backs. Without those two, the Lions had trouble stopping Sam Bradford last week, who completed 17 of 25 for 198 yards and a touchdown in a near Rams victory in Detroit.

Now the Lions expect to be without another defensive back, 3rd round rookie Bill Bentley, this week. Bentley was a starter last week in place of the injured Houston. Without Bentley, the Lions’ top 3 cornerbacks this week will be Jacob Lacey, who struggled as a starter in Indianapolis last year, Drayton Florence, who was a final cut of the Broncos’ roughly 2 weeks ago, and Jonte Green, a 6th round rookie. At safety, they will start two career journeyman backups, Erik Coleman and John Wendling. Their pass rush is good, but expect Alex Smith to find life very easy through the air once again this week, as long as they can keep him protected again, something they did a good job of against Green Bay, as he was pressured on just 7 of 33 drop backs.

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