NFL Draft History

Teams who use a 1st round pick on a quarterback

stevenlourie NFL Draft History

Since 2005, 19 teams have used a 1st round pick on a quarterback. It would make sense, if you’re making a big investment on a quarterback in the first round, that you would want to get this quarterback some help, bulking up the offensive line, giving him a play maker at receiver, or even just a running back to help take the load off. Not only does this make sense, but history shows it’s true and that help is acquired sooner than you would think, often time with their very next pick. Let’s take a look.

2005

San Francisco selects Alex Smith #1 and then selects offensive lineman David Baas #33

Green Bay selects Aaron Rodgers #24 and then selects safety Nick Collins #51 (one of the few exceptions, but they did take a wide receiver, Terrence Murphy with their 2nd of their two 2nd round picks)

Washington selects Jason Campbell #25 and then selects running back Manuel White #120 (Why I am not surprised Washington had no mid round picks in 2005? Do they ever have mid round picks?)

2006

Tennessee selects Vince Young #3 and then selects running back LenDale White #45

Arizona selects Matt Leinart #10 and then selects offensive lineman Deuce Lutui #41 (4 years later, Derek Anderson would share a laugh with Deuce Lutui while getting blown out by the 49ers and then explode when asked about it in a press conference)

Denver selects Jay Cutler #11 and then selects tight end Tony Scheffler #61

2007

Oakland selects JaMarcus Russell #1 and then selects tight end Zach Miller #38 (see even the Raiders follow the trend)

Cleveland selects Brady Quinn #22 and then selects cornerback Eric Wright #55 (another exception, but remember the Browns had just taken offensive lineman Joe Thomas #3 overall)

2008

Atlanta selects Matt Ryan #3 and then selects offensive lineman Sam Baker #21

Baltimore selects Joe Flacco #18 and then selects running back Ray Rice #55

2009

Detroit selects Matt Stafford #1 and then selects tight end Brandon Pettigrew #20

NY Jets select Mark Sanchez #5 and then select running back Shonn Greene #65

Tampa Bay selects Josh Freeman #17 and then defensive tackle Roy Miller #81

2010

St. Louis selects Sam Bradford #1 and then selects offensive lineman Rodger Saffold #33

Denver selects Tim Tebow #25 and then selects offensive lineman Zane Beadles #45 (they also selected wide receiver Demaryius Thomas #22)

2011

Carolina selects Cam Newton #1 and then selects defensive tackle Terrell McClain #65

Tennessee selects Jake Locker #8 and then selects outside linebacker Akeem Ayers #39

Jacksonville selects Blaine Gabbert #10 and then selects guard Will Rackley #76

Minnesota selects Christian Ponder #12 and then selects tight end Kyle Randolph #43

2012

Indianapolis selects Andrew Luck #1 and then selects tight end Coby Fleener #34

Washington selects Robert Griffin #2 and then selects offensive lineman Josh Leribeus #71

Miami selects Ryan Tannehill #8 and then selects offensive lineman Jonathan Martin #42

Cleveland selects Brandon Weeden #22 and then selects offensive lineman Mitchell Schwartz #37 (they also selected running back Trent Richardson #3)

2013

Buffalo selects EJ Manuel #16 and then selects wide receiver Robert Woods #41

So all in all, of the last 20 teams to draft a quarterback in the first round, 15 of them drafted an offensive player with their very next pick. Of the 5 who didn’t, one drafted an offensive player with the pick before the quarterback and one drafted an offensive player with the 2nd of their two 2nd round picks.

Bust Rate By Position

stevenlourie NFL Draft History

There is a common misconception out there that picking non-quarterbacks (AJ Green/Patrick Peterson/Marcell Dareus/Von Miller over Cam Newton, Ndamukong Suh over Sam Bradford, Aaron Curry over Matt Stafford, Glenn Dorsey over Matt Ryan) is the safe thing to do, that those guys are sure things. Today I’m going to disprove that by taking the guy highest drafted at each of the positions that manly go top 10 (QB, RB, WR, OT, DE, LB, CB) over each of the last 20 years and seeing how many of them made the Pro Bowl. The Pro Bowlers are in bold. Average pick refers to the average slot in which a player comes off the board because it’s not necessarily fair to say one position bust more than another because it has less Pro Bowlers, when the reason for that is that those players traditionally are drafted lower. Here are my findings.

Quarterback

2012- Andrew Luck 1st

2011- Cam Newton 1st 

2010- Sam Bradford 1st

2009- Matt Stafford 1st

2008- Matt Ryan 3rd

2007- JaMarcus Russell 1st

2006- Vince Young 3rd

2005- Alex Smith 1st

2004- Eli Manning 1st

2003- Carson Palmer 1st

2002- David Carr 1st

2001- Michael Vick 1st

2000- Chad Pennington 18th

1999- Tim Couch 1st

1998- Peyton Manning 1st

1997- Jim Druckenmiller 26th

1996- Tony Banks 42nd

1995- Steve McNair 3rd

1994- Heath Shuler 3rd

1993- Drew Bledsoe 1st

10/20

Average pick: 5.55

Running back

2012- Trent Richardson 3rd

2011- Mark Ingram 28th

2010- CJ Spiller 9th

2009- Knowshon Moreno 12th

2008- Darren McFadden 4th

2007- Adrian Peterson 7th

2006- Reggie Bush 2nd

2005- Ronnie Brown 2nd

2004- Steven Jackson 24th

2003- Willis McGahee 23rd

2002- William Green 16th

2001- LaDainian Tomlinson 5th

2000- Jamal Lewis 5th

1999- Edgerrin James 3rd

1998- Curtis Enis 8th

1997- Warrick Dunn 12th

1996- Lawrence Phillips 6th

1995- Ki-Jana Carter 1st

1994- Marshall Faulk 2nd

1993- Garrison Hearst 3rd

11/20

Average pick: 8.75

Wide Receiver

2012- Justin Blackmon 5th

2011- AJ Green 4th 

2010- DeMaryius Thomas 22nd

2009- Darrius Heyward Bey 7th

2008- Donnie Avery 33rd

2007- Calvin Johnson 2nd

2006- Santonio Holmes 25th

2005- Braylon Edwards 3rd

2004- Larry Fitzgerald 3rd

2003- Charles Rogers 2nd

2002- Donte Stallworth 12th

2001- David Terrell 8th

2000- Peter Warrick 4th

1999- Torry Holt 6th

1998- Kevin Dyson 16th

1997- Ike Hilliard 7th

1996- Keyshawn Johnson 1st

1995- Michael Westbrook 4th

1994- Charles Johnson 17th

1993- Curtis Conway 7th

7/20

Average pick: 9.9

Offensive Tackle

2012- Matt Kalil 4th

2011- Tyron Smith 9th

2010- Trent Williams 4th

2009- Jason Smith 2nd

2008- Jake Long 1st

2007- Joe Thomas 3rd

2006- D’Brickashaw Ferguson 4th

2005- Jamaal Brown 13th

2004- Robert Gallery 2nd

2003- Jordan Gross 8th

2002- Mike Williams 4th

2001- Leonard Davis 2nd

2000- Chris Samuels 4th

1999- John Tait 14th

1998- Kyle Turley 7th

1997- Orlando Pace 1st

1996- Jonathan Ogden 4th

1995- Tony Boselli 2nd

1994- Bernard Williams 14th

1993- William Roaf 8th

13/20

Average pick: 5.5

Defensive End

2012- Bruce Irvin 15th

2011- Marcell Dareus 3rd

2010- Brandon Graham 13th

2009- Tyson Jackson 3rd

2008- Chris Long 2nd

2007- Gaines Adams 4th

2006- Mario Williams 1st

2005- Erasmus James 18th

2004- Will Smith 18th

2003- Terrell Suggs 10th

2002- Julius Peppers 2nd

2001- Justin Smith 4th

2000- Courtney Brown 1st

1999- Jevon Kearse 16th

1998- Andre Wadsworth 3rd

1997- Kenard Lang 17th

1996- Simeon Rice 3rd

1995- Kevin Carter 6th

1994- Joe Johnson 13th

1993- John Copeland 5th

11/20

Average pick: 7.85

Defensive Tackle

2012- Dontari Poe 11th

2011- Nick Fairley 13th

2010- Ndamukong Suh 2nd 

2009- BJ Raji 9th

2008- Glenn Dorsey 5th

2007- Amobi Okoye 10th

2006- Haloti Ngata 12th

2005- Travis Johnson 16th

2004- Tommie Harris 14th

2003- DeWayne Robertson 4th

2002- Ryan Sims 6th

2001- Gerard Warren 3rd

2000- Corey Simon 6th

1999- Anthony McFarland 15th

1998- Jason Peter 14th

1997- Darrell Russell 2nd

1996- Daryl Gardener 20th

1995- Derrick Alexander 11th

1994- Dan Wilkinson 1st

1993- Leonard Renfro 24th

6/20

Average pick: 9.9

Linebackers

2012- Luke Kuechly 9th

2011- Von Miller 2nd 

2010- Rolando McClain 8th

2009- Aaron Curry 4th

2008- Keith Rivers 9th

2007- Patrick Willis 11th

2006- AJ Hawk 5th

2005- DeMarcus Ware 12th

2004- Jonathan Vilma 12th

2003- Nick Barnett 29th

2002- Napoleon Harris 23rd

2001- Dan Morgan 11th

2000- LaVar Arrington 2nd

1999- Chris Claiborne 9th

1998- Keith Brooking 12th

1997- Peter Boulware 4th

1996- Kevin Hardy 2nd

1995- Mark Fields 13th

1994- Willie McGinest 4th

1993- Marvin Jones 4th

12/20

Average pick: 9.25

Cornerback

2012- Morris Claiborne 6th

2011- Patrick Peterson 5th 

2010- Joe Haden 7th

2009- Malcolm Jenkins 14th

2008- Leodis McKelvin 11th

2007- Darrelle Revis 14th

2006- Tye Hill 16th

2005- Pacman Jones 6th

2004- DeAngelo Hall 8th

2003- Terence Newman 5th

2002- Quentin Jammer 5th

2001- Nate Clements 21st

2000- Deltha O’Neal 15th

1999- Champ Bailey 7th

1998- Charles Woodson 4th

1997- Shawn Springs 3rd

1996- Alex Molden 11th

1995- Tyrone Poole 22nd

1994- Antonio Langham 9th

1993- Tom Carter 17th

8/20

Average pick: 10.1

 Position  Percentage  Average Pick
 Quarterback  50%  5.55
 Running back  55%  8.75
 Wide Receiver  35%  9.9
 Offensive Tackle  65%  5.5
 Defensive End  55%  7.85
 Defensive Tackle  30%  9.9
 Linebacker  60%  9.25
 Cornerback  40%  10.1

One note, just because 13/20 offensive tackles made the Pro Bowl doesn’t mean offensive tackle is by far the safest pick. Offensive tackle do not have stats, really, so Pro Bowl voters, fans at home, normally go for the biggest name and vote them into the Pro Bowl. Who are the biggest names? Well, most likely they are the guys who were drafted higher.

I think this clearly gets rid of any misconceptions that quarterbacks bust more than any other position. Other than offensive tackle each position had between a 30% and a 60% Pro Bowl rate and an average pick of below 10.1. This shows two things.

First, having a top ten pick is not necessarily a gift. Second, it shows that, considering how often top ten picks bust, if you have a top ten pick and you need a quarterback, take one.

The quarterback position is, especially in today’s game, the most important position on the field by far. You’re making a huge risk picking in the top ten anyway. Might as well go all in for a quarterback if you need to.

In short, the next time you hear someone say “taking a quarterback in the top ten is risky.” Show them this and tell them that taking any player in the top ten is risky.

Not convinced that quarterbacks are necessary in the NFL. Take a look at this stat. 20 of the last 22 Super Bowl winning quarterbacks had made a Pro Bowl prior to winning the Super Bowl.

Not convinced that you need to take a quarterback in the first round to get a franchise quarterback, consider the fact that 9 of the 12 quarterbacks in the playoffs last year were drafted in the first 32 picks, and then read this, to see what happened to those quarterbacks drafted after the first round. It isn’t pretty.

Position of top 3 Picks

stevenlourie NFL Draft History

2013: OT, OT, DE

2012: QB, QB, RB

2011: QB, OLB, DE

2010: QB, DT, DT

2009: QB, OT, DE

2008: OT, DE, QB

2007: QB, WR, OT

2006: DE, RB, QB

2005: QB, RB, WR

2004: QB, OT, WR

2003: QB, WR, WR

2002: QB, DE, QB

2001: QB, OT, DT

2000: DE, OLB, OT

1999: QB, QB, QB

1998: QB, QB, DE

Top 3

QB: 19

RB: 3

WR: 5

TE: 0

OT: 8

G: 0

C: 0

DE: 8

DT: 3

OLB: 2

MLB: 0

CB: 0

S: 0

1st overall

QB: 12

OT: 2

DE: 2

Every other position: 0

How do quarterbacks drafted in the 2nd and 3rd round fare?

stevenlourie NFL Draft History

You hear it every year. The Falcons should take Glenn Dorsey over Matt Ryan because there’s going to be more Matt Ryans in the 2nd round and Dorsey is a once in a lifetime prospect. The Lions should take Aaron Curry over Matt Stafford because there’s going to be more Matt Staffords in the 2nd round and Curry is a once in a lifetime prospect. The Rams should take Ndamukong Suh over Sam Bradford because there are more Sam Bradfords in the 2nd round and Suh is a once in a lifetime prospect. The Panthers should take Patrick Peterson/AJ Green/Marcell Dareus because there’s going to be more Cam Newtons in the 2nd round. Well, are there really more Matt Ryans, Matt Staffords, Sam Bradfords, and Cam Newtons in the 2nd round. History says no.

Giovanni Carmazzi- San Francisco 49ers

Pick 65 2000 (3rd round)

0 snaps, out of league in 2 years

Chris Redman- Baltimore Ravens

Pick 75 2000 (3rd round)

286-500 (57.2) 3179 yards (6.4) 21 TD 14 INT

Drew Brees- San Diego Chargers

Pick 32 2001 (2nd round)

4035-6149 (65.6) 45919 yards (7.5) 324 TD 165 INT

PRO BOWL

SUPER BOWL

Quincy Carter- Dallas Cowboys

Pick 52 2001 (2nd round)

542-960 (56.5) 6337 yards (6.6) 32 TD 37 INT

Marques Tuiasosopo- Oakland Raiders

Pick 59 2001 (2nd round)

49-90 (54.4) 554 yards (6.2) 2 TD 7 INT

Josh McCown- Arizona Cardinals

Pick 81 2002 (3rd round)

645-1113 (58.0) 6998 yards (6.3) 37 TD 44 INT

Dave Ragone- Houston Texans

Pick 88 2003 (3rd round)

20-40 (50.0) 135 yards (3.4) 0 TD 1 INT

Chris Simms- Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Pick 97 2003 (3rd round)

297-511 (58.1) 3117 yards (6.1) 12 TD 18 INT

Matt Schaub- Atlanta Falcons

Pick 90 2004 (3rd round)

1816-2823 (64.3) 21944 yards (7.8) 120 TD 70 INT

PRO BOWL

Charlie Frye- Cleveland Browns

Pick 67 2005 (3rd round)

419-677 (61.9) 4154 yards (6.1) 17 TD 29 INT

Andrew Walter- Oakland Raiders

Pick 69 2005 (3rd round)

174-333 (52.3) 1919 yards (5.8) 3 TD 16 INT

David Greene- Seattle Seahawks

Pick 85 2005 (3rd round)

0 snaps, out of league in 2 years

Kellen Clemens- New York Jets

Pick 49 2006 (2nd round)

196-378 (51.9) 2271 yards (6.0) 7 TD 13 INT

Tarvaris Jackson- Minnesota

Pick 64 2006 (2nd round)

625-1053 (59.4) 7075 yards (6.9) 38 TD 35 INT

Charlie Whitehurst- San Diego

Pick 81 2006 (3rd round)

84-155 (54.2), 805 yards (5.2), 3 TD, 4 INT

Brodie Croyle- Kansas City

Pick 85 2006 (3rd round)

181-319 (56.7) 1669 yards (5.2) 8 TD 9 INT

Kevin Kolb- Philadelphia

Pick 36 2007 (2nd round)

449-755 (59.5) 5620 yards (6.9) 28 TD 25 INT

John Beck- Miami

Pick 40 2007 (2nd round)

140-239 (58.6) 1417 yards (5.9) 3 TD 7 INT

Drew Stanton

Pick 43 2007 (2nd round)

104-187 (55.6) 1158 yards (6.2) 5 TD 9 INT

Trent Edwards

Pick 92 2007 (3rd round)

563-929 (60.5) 6031 yards (6.5) 26 TD 30 INT

Brian Brohm

Pick 56 2008 (2nd round)

27-52 (51.9) 252 yards (4.9) 0 TD 5 INT

Chad Henne

Pick 57 2008 (2nd round)

812-1373 (59.1) 9198 yards (6.7) 42 TD 387 INT

Kevin O’Connell

Pick 94 2008 (3rd round)

4-6 (66.7) 23 yards (3.8) 0 TD 0 INT

Pat White

Pick 44 2009 (2nd round)

0-5 0 yards 0 TD 0 INT

I am not using anyone from 2010-2013 drafts here because its too soon to tell with most of them what kind of quarterback they will be in this league. For the record, those quarterbacks are Jimmy Clausen, Colt McCoy, Andy Dalton, Colin Kaepernick, Ryan Mallett, Brock Osweiler, Russell Wilson, Geno Smith, and Mike Glennon.

Of the 27 quarterbacks drafted in the 2nd or 3rd round between 2000-2008, only 2 have made Pro Bowls. Only 1 has won a Super Bowl, Drew Brees and he was actually drafted in the top 32 picks, just not in the first round because the league just had 31 teams at that time. Only 5 have thrown more than 1000 passes in the NFL. Only 5 have even thrown more touchdowns than interceptions in their career. Only 4 have a career completion percentage of 60% or higher (minimum 100 throws).

So the verdict looks pretty clear, waiting until the 2nd round to draft your franchise signal caller, not a smart move. First round quarterbacks don’t always pan out all the time either, but they are a lot more likely to pan out than a 2nd or 3rd round pick. If you have a first round grade on a quarterback, and that quarterback is available to you in the first round, and you need a quarterback, pull the trigger.

Draft Pick Value Chart

stevenlourie NFL Draft History

What is this madness? Well, though it may look like something straight out of lost (4,8,15,16,23,42) it is actually the NFL Draft Pick Trade Value Chart. Basically, it is the excepted numerical value of each pick and it is very useful for trying to do draft day trades. Say you had the 13th pick and wanted to move down to 18th. Since the 13th pick has a value of 1150 and the 18th pick has a value of 900, you would expect a pick with a value of near 250 (68th pick) in return for your swap. An example of poor use of this chart, Eric Mangini. When he moved down through 3 trades from 5th to 21st in 2009, he should have gotten 900 points worth of value in return. Instead, he got the 52nd pick (380), the 191st pick (15), the 195th pick (13.4), and three players from the Jets. Add that up and for the trade to be fair according to this chart, those 3 players from the Jets had to equal 491.6 points (roughly the 41st pick). Something tells me Kenyon Coleman, Abram Elam, and Brett Ratliff aren’t worth an early 2nd rounder.

Round 1

Round 2

Round 3

Round 4

Round 5

Round 6

Round 7

1

3,000

33

580

65

265

97

112

129

43

161

27

193

14.2

2

2,600

34

560

66

260

98

108

130

42

162

26.6

194

13.8

3

2,200

35

550

67

255

99

104

131

41

163

26.2

195

13.4

4

1,800

36

540

68

250

100

100

132

40

164

25.8

196

13

5

1,700

37

530

69

245

101

96

133

39.5

165

25.4

197

12.6

6

1,600

38

520

70

240

102

92

134

39

166

25

198

12.2

7

1,500

39

510

71

235

103

88

135

38.5

167

24.6

199

11.8

8

1,400

40

500

72

230

104

86

136

38

168

24.2

200

11.4

9

1,350

41

490

73

225

105

84

137

37.5

169

23.8

201

11

10

1,300

42

480

74

220

106

82

138

37

170

23.4

202

10.6

11

1,250

43

470

75

215

107

80

139

36.5

171

23

203

10.2

12

1,200

44

460

76

210

108

78

140

36

172

22.6

204

9.8

13

1,150

45

450

77

205

109

76

141

35.5

173

22.2

205

9.4

14

1,100

46

440

78

200

110

74

142

35

174

21.8

206

9

15

1,050

47

430

79

195

111

72

143

34.5

175

21.4

207

8.6

16

1,000

48

420

80

190

112

70

144

34

176

21

208

8.2

17

950

49

410

81

185

113

68

145

33.5

177

20.6

209

7.8

18

900

50

400

82

180

114

66

146

33

178

20.2

210

7.4

19

875

51

390

83

175

115

64

147

32.6

179

19.8

211

7

20

850

52

380

84

170

116

62

148

32.2

180

19.4

212

6.6

21

800

53

370

85

165

117

60

149

31.8

181

19

213

6.2

22

780

54

360

86

160

118

58

150

31.4

182

18.6

214

5.8

23

760

55

350

87

155

119

56

151

31

183

18.2

215

5.4

24

740

56

340

88

150

120

54

152

30.6

184

17.8

216

5

25

720

57

330

89

145

121

52

153

30.2

185

17.4

217

4.6

26

700

58

320

90

140

122

50

154

29.8

186

17

218

4.2

27

680

59

310

91

136

123

49

155

29.4

187

16.6

219

3.8

28

660

60

300

92

132

124

48

156

29

188

16.2

220

3.4

29

640

61

292

93

128

125

47

157

28.6

189

15.8

221

3

30

620

62

284

94

124

126

46

158

28.2

190

15.4

222

2.6

31

600

63

276

95

120

127

45

159

27.8

191

15

223

2.3

32

590

64

270

96

116

128

44

160

27.4

192

14.6

224

2

My issues with this chart:

High draft picks are valued too high. So the 1st pick is worth two 7th picks? What?! Let’s take a look at the last 12 7th picks and the last 12 1st picks

1st

2011: Cam Newton

2010: Sam Bradford

2009: Matt Stafford

2008: Jake Long

2007: JaMarcus Russell

2006: Mario Williams

2005: Alex Smith

2004: Eli Manning

2003: Carson Palmer

2002: David Carr

2001: Michael Vick

2000: Courtney Brown

7th

2011: Aldon Smith

2010: Joe Haden

2009: Darrius Heyward Bey

2008: Sedrick Ellis

2007: Adrian Peterson

2006: Michael Huff

2005: Troy Williamson

2004: Roy Williams (WR)

2003: Byron Leftwich

2002: Bryant McKennie

2001: Andre Carter

2000: Thomas Jones

I know the 1st pick group has a little more talent, but two times more? I would much rather have my pick of 4 of those 7th pick guys than 2 of those 1st pick guys.

Further showing this, Tom Brady was drafted with the 199th pick, value 11.8. I know Brady is an anomaly, but considering the 1st pick has a value of 3000, are you over 250 times more likely to draft a stud QB with the 1st pick than the 199th pick?

This is why so many of the teams that have had success this decade trade down. The Patriots do it every year and it’s no surprise that they lead the NFL in Super Bowl wins this decade.