NFL Picks

Arizona Cardinals at Baltimore Ravens: 2019 Week 2 NFL Pick

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Arizona Cardinals (0-0-1) at Baltimore Ravens (1-0)

The most eye-popping result of week 1 was the Ravens’ 59-10 win in Miami and Lamar Jackson’s near perfect day as a passer. It came against a Dolphins team with little talent and seemingly little motivation, but Jackson faced a weak schedule of defenses in his starts last season (5 of 8 starts came against teams that finished 24th or worse in first down rate allowed) and never came close to putting up the passing production he put up last week, so he definitely seems improved as a passer from year one to year two. The question of how much he’s improved may not be answered until he faces tougher competition, but week 1 was definitely encouraging for his long-term prospects.

Jackson isn’t really getting that tougher competition this week, with the Cardinals coming to Baltimore. Unlike the Dolphins, the Cardinals should be a somewhat competitive team this season, but they’re still one of the worst teams in the league and they’re missing their two starting cornerbacks Patrick Peterson and Robert Alford with suspension and injury respectively, so their defense isn’t close to full strength.

That being said, I still think this line is way too high at Baltimore -13. Even if Jackson is an improved passer, this team still has significant concerns, especially on defense. Having already lost five defensive starters in free agency, the Ravens are now without cornerbacks Tavon Young and Jimmy Smith as well. Adding Earl Thomas in free agency obviously helps, but he can’t mask their other losses by himself. What was a dominant defense last season could easily be middle of the pack this season, at least against teams other than the Dolphins. If Jackson can perform like he did last week every week, that will mask their losses on defense, but he has yet to show consistency. The Ravens could also overlook the Cardinals a little bit, with a trip to Kansas City on deck. Favorites of 10+ are 63-83 ATS since 2002 before being underdogs. I have this line calculated at Baltimore -7, so we’re getting significant line value with the visitors at +13. This is my Pick of the Week.

Baltimore Ravens 27 Arizona Cardinals 20

Pick against the spread: Arizona +13

Confidence: Pick of the Week

Jacksonville Jaguars at Houston Texans: 2019 Week 2 NFL Pick

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Jacksonville Jaguars (0-1) at Houston Texans (0-1)

The season is only a week old, but the Jaguars are already pretty beat up. Their biggest injury is the loss of quarterback Nick Foles for a couple months with a broken collarbone. Sixth round rookie Gardner Minshew didn’t look bad last week in relief of Foles, but that was at home, against a Chiefs defense that was one of the worst in the league last season, and it largely came against a prevent defense in a game that wasn’t close most of the way. He’ll face a much tougher test on the road in Houston this week and the Texans will also be better prepared to face him than the Chiefs were, with close to a full game of tape to study and a week to prepare. 

Foles’ injury might be the Jaguars’ biggest, but it’s far from their only serious injury situation. The Jaguars will also again be without blindside protector Cam Robinson after he suffered a setback in his recovery from a torn ACL last week and they’ll be without cornerback AJ Bouye and defensive end Yannick Ngakoue, two of their best defensive players. This defense was already a far cry from their 2017 defense before those two injuries. Without those two, the Jaguars will have just four of their top-13 defensive players in terms of played in 2017 active in this game. In their current injury situation, this is one of the worst few teams in the league.

The Texans aren’t a great team, but I think we’re getting line value with them as 8.5 point favorites. We’re not getting a ton of line value, but I have this calculated at Houston -11 and the public seems to be underestimating the Jaguars’ injury situation. Minshew should struggle in his first career road start against a solid defense, while the Jaguars’ defense won’t be much resistance for Deshaun Watson and company. The Texans should win this with relative ease, by double digits. They’re worth a small bet.

Houston Texans 24 Jacksonville Jaguars 12

Pick against the spread: Houston -8.5

Confidence: Medium

Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Carolina Panthers: 2019 Week 2 NFL Pick

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Tampa Bay Buccaneers (0-1) at Carolina Panthers (0-1)

Both of these teams lost week 1, but it’s clear there’s a wide talent gap between these two teams. The Panthers loss came against a likely playoff team in the Rams and it was a game that easily could have in a number of different ways. The final margin of victory was just three points and the Rams got the recovery on all four fumbles that occured in the game. The Panthers were the better team in first down rate (37.50% vs. 34.72%) and easily could have been the better team on the scoreboard if the ball had bounced differently. 

The Buccaneers, meanwhile, lost by two touchdowns at home against a so-so 49ers team in a game in which starting quarterback Jameis Winston looked awful. Winston threw three interceptions, including one returned for a touchdown, against a team that intercepted just two passes all last season. Turnover margins tend to be inconsistent tough to predict, but Winston has been the most turnover prone quarterback in the league over the past 5 seasons. 

The Buccaneers’ defense is unlikely to be good this season, so any projections for an improved Buccaneers team this season have to include an improved Jameis Winston under center. If Winston continues to struggle, this is likely a bottom-5 team. The Panthers, who look like a playoff contender on paper, shouldn’t have much trouble with them at home in Carolina. I have this line calculated at Carolina -10, so we’re getting enough value with the Panthers for a small bet on them. 

Carolina Panthers 31 Tampa Bay Buccaneers 20

Pick against the spread: Carolina -7

Confidence: Medium

2019 Week 1 NFL Picks

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Instead of doing full write ups for each week 1 game, I’m going to have all of my week 1 picks here. If I were to do full write ups, a lot of the material would be redundant to my season previews, so I’ll keep it brief and link to my previews. From week 2 on, I will have full write ups as usual. 

For now, these are just my early thoughts, with a few picks locked in. I will have final updates, full score predictions, confidence rankings, and a Pick of the Week in the days leading up to the first Sunday of the season. 

Thursday

Green Bay Packers at Chicago Bears

The Bears are favored by more than a field goal because they were the better team last season, but I could see that being flipped in 2019. The Bears had an easy schedule and no injuries last season and lost a pair of defensive starters this off-season. The Packers, meanwhile, should have a more productive passing game with a new offensive system in place and young receivers getting more experience. With a defense that was improved through free agency and what looks like a very promising running game, the Packers could be the most well rounded team in the league this season unless Aaron Rodgers continues to struggle by his standards. Even if the Bears are a tough opponent, I love getting more than a field goal with Green Bay here. 

Final Update: This is one I’m glad I locked in early, as this line has shifted to 3 in most places. I still like the Packers at +3, but getting the extra half point is key here. As mentioned in my previews, I have the Packers slightly ahead of the Bears this year. The Packers should have as good of a running game and defense as they’ve had in a while and, if Rodgers can bounce back from a down season, they should be Super Bowl contenders. The Bears, meanwhile, lost a pair of key starters on defense this off-season and benefited from an easy schedule in 2018. I’m going to keep this at high confidence because there are other games I like later in the week for my Pick of the Week. I will finalize the rest of my picks on Saturday.

Green Bay Packers 24 Chicago Bears 23 Upset Pick +160

Pick against the spread: Green Bay +3.5

Confidence: High

Sunday

Atlanta Falcons at Minnesota Vikings

The Falcons went just 7-9 last season, but their defense was much better in the second half of the season when Deion Jones returned from injury and now they get safeties Keanu Neal and Ricardo Allen back as well. On offense, they get running back Devonta Freeman back and should be better on the offensive line. They could easily get back to the post-season and I have them a few spots better in my rankings than the Vikings, who still have offensive line problems and might not be as good on defense with Sheldon Richardson gone and several other key players getting up there in age. The Falcons have a good chance of winning this one outright even on the road, so getting 4 points with them is great value.

Week 1 Update: Not much has changed here. I still like Atlanta and I am considering this as Pick of the Week.

Final Update: The only notable injury in this game is Minnesota wide receiver Stefon Diggs, who could be limited with a hamstring injury. That just solidifies my pick of Atlanta, who will be my Pick of the Week.

Atlanta Falcons 27 Minnesota Vikings 24 Upset Pick +170

Pick against the spread: Atlanta +4

Confidence: Pick of the Week

Washington Redskins at Philadelphia Eagles

This line is one of the highest of the week, but I don’t think it’s high enough, as this is a matchup between one of the worst and one of the best teams in the league. The Redskins will either be starting a rookie quarterback with just one year of college experience or veteran journeyman Case Keenum, with arguably the worst receiving corps in the league to throw to. Even with all of their quarterback moves this off-season, they will still really miss having a healthy Alex Smith. They weren’t bad defensively last season, but they weren’t good either, despite having next to no injuries, and they have big question marks at middle linebacker and safety after some off-season departures. The Eagles, meanwhile, should be much healthier this season, including Carson Wentz, who dealt with knee and back problems even when on the field last season. This line would be at least two touchdowns if these two teams were to meet in week 6, but I don’t think the public realizes how bad Washington is yet. 

Week 1 Update: Despite Trent Williams not reporting to the Redskins, this line has stayed under 10. I’m going to lock this in now.

Final Update: I’m glad I locked this in at 9.5 because this line has gone up to 10 or 10.5 in some places. The Eagles should win this with ease, especially with the Redskins missing starting cornerback Fabian Moreau with injury. 

Philadelphia Eagles 30 Washington Redskins 13

Pick against the spread: Philadelphia -9.5

Confidence: High

Buffalo Bills at New York Jets

I have these two teams about even in my roster rankings, so this line seems about right. The Bills are a little bit better, especially with the Jets missing tight end Chris Herndon to suspension, but I don’t think I’d bet on this one.

Week 1 Update: The Bills are the slightly better of these two teams, but not enough to bet them confidently.

Final Update: This line has shifted down to 2.5, so I’m actually going switch this pick to the Jets. The Bills are the slightly better team and could easily pull the upset, but the most likely outcome is the Jets winning by a field goal. This is a no confidence pick either way.

New York Jets 20 Buffalo Bills 17

Pick against the spread: NY Jets -2.5

Confidence: None

Baltimore Ravens at Miami Dolphins

Miami is probably going to be the worst team in the league this year, but Baltimore is also likely to be much worse than last season. Their offensive efficiency actually dropped when they went from Joe Flacco to Lamar Jackson down the stretch last season and their 6-1 record in Jackson’s starts was largely the result of an easy schedule and a dominant defense. That defense lost several starters in free agency this off-season, most of whom were not replaced, which really hurts a team that wants to be run heavy and hide Jackson’s accuracy problems. Jackson will likely have to pass much more than he did last season, in part to avoid the injury risk of carrying the ball 15-20 times, and he has a very unproven receiving corps to throw to. I probably wouldn’t bet on Miami, but this line is a little too high and Baltimore should be a good team to pick against for at least the first month of the season.

Week 1 Update: I don’t like betting on the Dolphins, but this line has gotten out of control. The Dolphins got even worse when they traded Laremy Tunsil to the Texans, but people don’t realize how much worse the Ravens’ defense has gotten this off-season, especially with cornerback Tavon Young now out for the season. This is only going to be a small bet, but I want to lock this in while we’re getting the full touchdown. The Dolphins won’t win many games this year, but I have this as their second most likely win of the season.

Final Update: I’m keeping this as a medium confidence pick.

Baltimore Ravens 20 Miami Dolphins 16

Pick against the spread: Miami +7

Confidence: Medium

Kansas City Chiefs at Jacksonville Jaguars

For now, I am assuming Tyreek Hill will not be playing in this game, as he seems likely to be suspended for at least some period of time. Without Hill and already without Kareem Hunt, suddenly Pat Mahomes’ weapons are not nearly as impressive. Mahomes should still be one of the top quarterbacks in the league this season, but this could be one of his worst games of the season, on the road, against a tough defense, without his top receiver. Jacksonville still has problems on offense, but they upgrade at quarterback with Nick Foles and they have a healthy Leonard Fournette and a healthier offensive line. Against a Chiefs defense that looks likely to be one of the worst in the league again in 2019, I like getting more than a field goal with the Jaguars at home. 

Update: Tyreek Hill will not be suspended. I will update this pick near the start of the season once there is a new line.

Week 1 Update: This line has stayed at about 4. I still think we are getting value with the Jaguars, as I have the Chiefs calculated as 1.5-point favorites in this game, but I’m hesitant to lock this in right now until I see how much the Jaguars are able to practice this week with a hurricane about to hit.

Final Update: The hurricane did not affect the Jaguars’ practices much this week, but they will be without left tackle Cam Robinson after he re-aggravated his surgically repaired ACL in practice this week. Despite that, this line has shifted down to 3.5. I’m still taking the Jaguars, but this is a low confidence pick. 

Kansas City Chiefs 26 Jacksonville Jaguars 24

Pick against the spread: Jacksonville +3.5

Confidence: Low

Tennessee Titans at Cleveland Browns

This line is about right. I think I’d lean towards Tennessee because Marcus Mariota is healthy for now and the Browns could take a few weeks to find their stride, with all of their new off-season additions, but the Browns have a clear talent edge and could easily win by a touchdown or more at home.

Week 1 Update: The Titans will be without left tackle Taylor Lewan in this one due to suspension, which definitely hurts their chances of covering this spread. I may decide to bet this one later in the week.

Final Update: This line is about right. I think we’re getting a little bit of line value with the Browns, but not enough to take them with any confidence.

Cleveland Browns 23 Tennessee Titans 17

Pick against the spread: Cleveland -5.5

Confidence: None

Los Angeles Rams at Carolina Panthers

The Panthers were 6-2 last season before Cam Newton got hurt and even when Newton was playing hurt many of their losses were close. The Panthers finished last season 12th in first down rate differential, 2nd best among non-playoff teams behind the Steelers, and Cam Newton should be healthy for week 1 after off-season surgery. They might not make the playoffs in the loaded NFC, but I like their chances of pulling the upset here at home week 1, as field goal underdogs. The Rams should still be good this season, but they lost a pair of offensive linemen in free agency and they still have question marks on defense around Aaron Donald.

Week 1 Update: This remains a Pick of the Week candidate.

Final Update: This is another one I’m glad I locked in because sharp action has dropped this down to 2 or 1.5 in some places. The Panthers should be favored in this game as there isn’t much of a talent gap between these two teams.

Carolina Panthers 30 Los Angeles Rams 27 Upset Pick +135

Pick against the spread: Carolina +3

Confidence: Medium

Cincinnati Bengals at Seattle Seahawks

The consensus seems to be that the Bengals will struggle this season, but I wouldn’t be so sure. Remember they were one of the better teams in the league last season before injuries struck, especially on offense when Andy Dalton, Tyler Eifert, and AJ Green were all healthy. They’re not necessarily a playoff team, but neither are the Seahawks and I have these two teams about even in my rankings, so we’re getting great value with the Bengals at +8. The Seahawks made the playoffs last season on the strength of a +15 turnover margin, but turnover margins are inconsistent on a year-to-year basis and the Seahawks continued shedding talent this off-season, with Frank Clark and Doug Baldwin no longer on the team. They have one of the weakest rosters in the league around quarterback Russell Wilson.

Week 1 Update: So much for the Bengals being healthy on offense. Not only is AJ Green out for the first few weeks of the season, but the Bengals lost first round pick Jonah Williams for the season, had left guard Clint Boling retire due to injury, and will likely be without left tackle Cordy Glenn due to a concussion. I’m not happy about having locked this one in, but I am glad I was able to lock in Green Bay before they went down to field goal underdogs.

Final Update: Even with all of the Bengals’ injuries, we’re getting a little bit of line value with the visitors here. Obviously I’m not happy about locking this in before the Bengals’ injuries, but Cincinnati should still be the pick for pick ‘em purposes. The Seahawks have Jadeveon Clowney, but they’ll be without first round rookie LJ Collier with injury, while Ezekiel Ansah is questionable with a groin injury.

Seattle Seahawks 23 Cincinnati Bengals 17

Pick against the spread: Cincinnati +8

Confidence: High

Indianapolis Colts at Los Angeles Chargers

These should be two of the best teams in the AFC in 2019 and no one should be surprised if this ends up being an AFC Championship preview, but the Colts are the better of the two teams, even if only slightly, and the Chargers have never gotten much help from their home crowd in Los Angeles, so they shouldn’t be getting the full field goal here. I probably wouldn’t bet on the Colts, but they look like the right side.

Week 1 Update: This game has probably had the most changes since I originally did these picks. The big difference is the Colts are without quarterback Andrew Luck after his surprising retirement, but the Chargers have lost key players as well, with Derwin James, Russell Okung, and holdout running back Melvin Gordon all out indefinitely. The Chargers have good running back depth, so Gordon isn’t a huge loss, but Okung was their only functional starting offensive lineman and James is one of the best defensive backs in the league. Those three losses should almost equal the loss of Luck, especially since the Colts have a good backup in Jacoby Brissett, but despite that this line has shifted all the way to a touchdown. I have these teams about even in my roster rankings and the Chargers don’t get full homefield advantage in Los Angeles, so we’re getting a lot of value with the Colts at +7. I’m locking this in and considering it for Pick of the Week.

Final Update: I still like the Colts a lot this week, but they’ll be without defensive end Jabaal Sheard with injury, so I’m not going to make this my Pick of the Week.

Los Angeles Chargers 23 Indianapolis Colts 20

Pick against the spread: Indianapolis +7

Confidence: High

San Francisco 49ers at Tampa Bay Buccaneers

This line is about right as this game is close to a toss up, but I have the 49ers projected to win just slightly, so they would be my pick for pick ‘em purposes.

Week 1 Update: I still don’t have a strong lean on this one.

Final Update: Tampa Bay missing safety Jordan Evans, arguably their best defensive back, tips the scales in San Francisco’s favor in this one, but this is a no confidence pick.

San Francisco 49ers 31 Tampa Bay Buccaneers 30

Pick against the spread: San Francisco PK

Confidence: None

Detroit Lions at Arizona Cardinals

This line seems about right, but I like the Lions for two reasons. For one, this will be the first NFL start for Kyler Murray, who was only a starter for about a year in college. Two, the Lions have dominated against non-playoff teams in recent years and that’s what I expect the Cardinals to ultimately end up being. In the past three seasons, the Lions are 22-9 against non-playoff teams and just 2-16 against playoff qualifiers. I like their chances of covering in a game in which they basically just need to win to cover.

Week 1 Update: Nothing significant has changed here. I may end up placing a bet on the Lions.

Final Update: The Cardinals will be without right tackle Marcus Gilbert with injury, a big loss as the Cardinals were counting on their off-season acquisition to give them much needed offensive line help. Instead, they’ll turn to undrafted rookie Brett Toth, who was released by the Eagles at final cuts last week. Kyler Murray is going to be thrown to the wolves in his debut against a very  underrated defensive line. Despite Gilbert’s absence, this line has stayed at 2.5. Lock this in while you can. 

Detroit Lions 24 Arizona Cardinals 19

Pick against the spread: Detroit -2.5

Confidence: Medium

New York Giants at Dallas Cowboys

The Cowboys haven’t been great at home as big favorites in recent years, but I don’t think this line is high enough, as the Cowboys are one of the better teams in the league, with the Giants are one of the worst. One thing to monitor with this game is that Dallas defensive end DeMarcus Lawrence is still considered questionable for week 1 after off-season shoulder surgery. Missing him would be a big blow to the Cowboys’ chances of winning by more than a touchdown. 

Week 1 Update: This line is off the board pending Ezekiel Elliott’s contract situation.

Final Update: Ezekiel Elliott will play after getting his extension. The full strength Cowboys should be favored by more than 7.5 points against a Giants team that is missing Golden Tate with suspension. I’m going to make a small bet on the Cowboys.

Dallas Cowboys 27 New York Giants 16

Pick against the spread: Dallas -7.5

Confidence: Medium

Pittsburgh Steelers at New England Patriots

I’ve gone back and forth on this one and probably will continue to do so over the next few weeks. On one hand, the Patriots have the talent advantage and have always played Pittsburgh very well. On the other hand, the Steelers beat the Patriots last year and this is probably a bigger game for them, as they’ll want a statement win to show they are still a threat, while the Patriots usually spend the first month of the season figuring things out.

Week 1 Update: I still don’t have a strong lean on this one.

Final Update: We’re getting a line bit of line value with the Patriots, but I’m not crazy about picking them early in the season.

New England Patriots 27 Pittsburgh Steelers 20

Pick against the spread: New England -6

Confidence: None

Monday

Houston Texans at New Orleans Saints

I have the Saints as the most talented team in the league, but they’ll likely be without Sheldon Rankins, who is still rehabbing from a torn Achilles he suffered in the playoffs last season, and fellow starting defensive tackle David Onyemata will also miss this game, due to a suspension. On top of that, they’ve traditionally started slow, going 2-12 ATS in the first 2 weeks of the season over the past 7 seasons. Remember last year when they lost at home to the Buccaneers? The Texans are a tougher opponent than Tampa Bay and could steal a win here. At the same time, I don’t know if we’re getting enough line value at +7 to take the Texans with any confidence.

Week 1 Update: I still don’t have a strong lean on this one.

Final update: I think the Texans made themselves worse by getting rid of Jadeveon Clowney and adding Laremy Tunsil and Kenny Stills (Clowney played at a borderline All-Pro level in 2018, something Tunsil has yet to do), but the Saints usually take a couple weeks to hit their stride (3-14-1 ATS in weeks 1 and 2 since 2010), so this is a no confidence play.

New Orleans Saints 28 Houston Texans 20

Pick against the spread: New Orleans -7

Confidence: None

Denver Broncos at Oakland Raiders

This line seems about right. I have the Raiders projected to win, but only by a slim margin. That slim margin is more likely to be a field goal than a single point though, so Oakland is probably the right side for pick ‘em purposes.

Week 1 Update: I still don’t have a strong lean on this one. One of these teams is likely to win by a field goal, but I’m not sure which one. The line movement from Oakland -2 to Oakland +1.5 is largely insignificant.

Final Update: Antonio Brown’s release has moved this line to Denver -2.5. I have this line calculated at Denver -1, which is a pretty insignificant difference. Even though we’re getting a little bit of line value with the Raiders, the most likely outcome might by Denver winning by a field goal, so I’m taking the Broncos for pick ’em purposes. In addition to losing Brown, the Raiders will also be without starting left guard Richie Incognito with suspension and starting right guard Gabe Jackson with injury.

Denver Broncos 23 Oakland Raiders 20

Pick against the spread: Denver -2.5

Confidence: None

2018 Picks (59.74% ATS)

2018 NFL Pick Results

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2018

Total Against the Spread: 154-102-11 (59.74%)

Pick of the Week: 10-6-1 (61.76%)

High Confidence Picks: 21-13-2 (61.11%)

Medium Confidence Picks: 41-27-1 (60.14%)

Money Picks (Medium Confidence and higher): 72-46-4 (60.66%)

Low Confidence Picks: 35-28-1 (55.47%)

No Confidence Picks: 47-28-6 (61.72%)

Upset Picks: 25-17-1 (59.30%)

All-Time (Since 2013)

Total Against the Spread: 845-710-47 (54.21%)

Pick of the Week: 61-40-3 (60.10%)

Money Picks (Medium Confidence and higher): 402-292-18 (57.72%)

Upset Picks: 132-153-1 (46.33%)

New England Patriots vs. Los Angeles Rams: Super Bowl LIII Pick

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New England Patriots (13-5) vs. Los Angeles Rams (15-3) in Super Bowl LIII

By their standards, the Patriots had a down season. They finished with fewer than 12 wins for the first time since 2009 and were legitimately blown out in a few games. They lost as many games by double digits (3) as they had in the previous 3 seasons combined and their 34-10 loss to the Titans was their biggest loss since 2014. They also didn’t go on one of their typical late season runs, actually winning more games in their first 8 games (6) than their final 8 games (5). From week 9 to 15, they went just 2-3, starting with that loss to the Titans in week 10, which was their latest loss by that many points since back in 2000 before Brady became a starter.

They also showed stretches of dominance though, especially at home, where they went a perfect 8-0, with 6 of 8 wins by double digits. Their only home wins that were within double digits came against division winners in the Chiefs and Texans and they would have had the ball with a 14 point lead late in the 4th quarter against the Texans if not for a muffed punt that led to a late Houston touchdown.

They weren’t nearly as good on the road, but picked up another two double digit wins on the road against the Jets and Bills, giving them 8 double digit wins in the regular season, tied with the Saints for most in the NFL. They won in Chicago, where the Bears otherwise won all of their regular season home games en route to a 12-4 record. All in all, the Patriots went 4-0 against playoff qualifiers, the only playoff qualifier to have a perfect record against fellow playoff qualifiers.

The Patriots played down to their level of competition some this season, particularly away from home, but they’ve always brought their best for big games in the Brady/Belichick era, going a ridiculous 39-13 against teams with a better record than them since 2001, including an unfathomable 15-1 since 2010. That’s not even skewed by early season matchups where records don’t mean as much, as they are 17-5 against teams with a better record than them in week 11 or later, including 8-2 in the post-season. For comparison, the league average winning percentage against a team with a better record is 38.3%.

Maybe it shouldn’t be a surprise that they were able to beat the Chargers and Chiefs, who both finished 12-4, to advance to the Super Bowl, where they now face the 3-loss Rams. Granted, their win over the Chiefs was close to a 50/50 game that could have gone either way, but their game against the Chargers was over by halftime. They showed their top level for much of the season and securing a first round bye allowed key veterans like Tom Brady and Rob Gronkowski to get healthy for another playoff run. Now with another week off, I wouldn’t want to bet against them right now, especially only getting 2.5 points. The Patriots have been close to an auto-bet with Brady under center as underdogs or favorites of less than 3, going 52-24 ATS and 47-29 straight up.

The Rams will present a tough test though. Their offense hasn’t been the same since Cooper Kupp went down with a torn ACL, as they had a first down rate of 46.09% in the 8 games he played, as opposed to 39.60% in the 10 games he missed, but that’s still an impressive rate and they should have a healthier Todd Gurley after a week off, giving them a one-two punch at running back of Gurley and talented replacement CJ Anderson. They’ve also been much better defensively with cornerback Aqib Talib on the field, allowing a 33.10% first down rate in the 10 games he played, as opposed to 43.29% in the 8 games he missed.

Both teams have plenty of standout players, with Jared Goff, Aaron Donald, and Andrew Whitworth among those I haven’t mentioned yet for the Rams and Julian Edelman, Trey Flowers, and Stephon Gilmore among those I haven’t mentioned yet for the Patriots. You could argue these are the two best coached teams in the league, with Bill Belichick and Josh McDaniels on one sideline, facing off with Sean McVay and Wade Phillips on the other. Ultimately, it’s just going to come down to execution, which I know isn’t much of an analysis, but the talent gap between these two teams isn’t much. I’m going with the Patriots because I trust their experience over the experience of the Rams, who are in just their 4th playoff game with Jared Goff and McVay. I probably wouldn’t bet this on a normal week, but it’s the Super Bowl.

New England Patriots 31 Los Angeles Rams 24

Pick against the spread: New England -2.5

Confidence: Medium

Los Angeles Rams at New Orleans Saints: 2018 NFC Championship Pick

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Los Angeles Rams (14-3) at New Orleans Saints (14-3)

These two met back in week 9 in New Orleans, but a lot has changed since then. At the time, the Rams were favored by a couple points, despite being the road team, because they were an undefeated 8-0 and seen as the early Super Bowl favorite. That changed when the Saints pulled the upset and subsequently went on to win 7 of their next 8 meaningful games, while the Rams went “just” 5-3 over the second half of the season. As a result, the Saints were able to clinch the #1 seed in the NFC before week 17, despite being a game and a half back of the Rams going into their week 9 matchup.

The Saints’ strong play is a big part of the reason why they overtook the Rams in the NFC, but the Rams also regressed a little bit down the stretch, particularly on offense after they lost slot receiver Cooper Kupp. The Rams still have a talented duo of receivers in Brandin Cooks and Robert Woods, but Kupp had been Jared Goff’s most effective receiver over the past 2 years. Goff completed 72.4% of his 152 targets to Kupp for 1,504 yards, 12 touchdowns, and just 2 interceptions, a ridiculous 124.5 QB rating. Kupp has missed 9 games in total including playoffs, but was also knocked out of 3 games with injury this season. In the 5 games he started and finished, the Rams had a 46.96% first down rate. In the 3 games he was knocked out, the Rams had a 44.72% first down rate. And in the 9 games he missed entirely, the Rams had a first down rate of 40.54%.

That’s still a good number and would have ranked 6th in the NFL over the course of the season, but they’re not quite the dominant offense they were going into the previous matchup, one of the five games Kupp started and finished (45.76% first down rate in a 45-35 loss). Their passing game in particular has fallen back to earth. Goff completed 71.8% of his passes for an average of 10.33 YPA, 14 touchdowns, and 3 interceptions in the 5 games Kupp started and finished, but just 59.8% of his passes for an average of 7.08 YPA, 15 touchdowns, and 6 interceptions in the 9 he’s missed completely. They’re still a strong offense, but they’re more reliant on the run than they were when Kupp was healthy.

Fortunately for them, the Saints also are missing a key player from the first matchup, with defensive tackle Sheldon Rankins going down with a torn achilles early in last week’s win over the Eagles. Outside of Cameron Jordan and Marshon Lattimore, Rankins was probably the Saints’ best defensive player this season, so that’s a big loss. Not only does losing him significantly hurt their chances of slowing down Todd Gurley and CJ Anderson on the ground, but he had a productive year as pass rusher as well, totaling 8 sacks, 6 hits, and 32 hurries on 450 pass rush snaps (10.2%).

On top of that, the Rams also have cornerback Aqib Talib healthy, which they didn’t have in the first matchup. In 6 games in which Talib has played more than half the snaps, the Rams have allowed opponents to pick up first downs at a 34.45% rate, as opposed to 40.12% in the 11 games in which he was inactive or limited. The Rams faced a pretty easily schedule in those 6 games (Oakland, Chicago, Philadelphia, Arizona, San Francisco, and Dallas), but it’s not hard to imagine how the return of the 6-1 209 Talib could have an impact in a rematch of a game in which the 6-3 212 Michael Thomas went for 12/211/1. I still have the Saints a little higher in my roster rankings, but I don’t think we’re getting enough line value here to bet on the Saints confidently.

New Orleans Saints 34 Los Angeles Rams 30

Pick against the spread: New Orleans -3

Confidence: Low

New England Patriots at Kansas City Chiefs: 2018 AFC Championship Pick

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New England Patriots (12-5) at Kansas City Chiefs (13-4)

The Patriots won in convincing fashion at home over a strong Chargers team last week, wrapping up an undefeated 9-0 home record, but now they have to go on the road (where they are 3-5) and travel to Kansas City for the AFC Championship game. The common narrative seems to be that they will continue to struggle on the road and, as a result, they are underdogs in a game started by Tom Brady for the first time since week 13 of the 2014 season.

The statistical difference between the Patriots at home and on the road has been very significant this season, beyond even what the records show. At home, 7 of those 9 wins came by double digits, with the only exceptions coming against the Texans and the Chiefs, a pair of AFC division winners. They have a first down rate differential of +9.65% at home. For comparison, the Bears finished 1st in first down rate differential on the season at +6.64%. On the road, however, they have a first down rate differential of -5.29%. For comparison, that would have ranked 29th in the NFL over the course of the season, most comparable to the Washington Redskins.

Fortunately for them, home/road differentials tend to be random more than anything. Over the past 30 seasons, teams with a home winning percentage of more than 90% and a road winning percentage under 50% are 40-36 straight up on the road in week 11 or later and are 21-12 ATS as road underdogs. The Patriots have been incredible at home since 2001, going 141-26 straight up, but they are also 99-49 on the road, including 24-15 ATS and 20-19 straight up as road underdogs. Any time you’re getting points with the Patriots, even against the most dominant of teams, they are worth a bet, as they tend to rise to the occasion against tough opponents, going a ridiculous 38-13 straight up against teams with a better record than them since 2001, including 7-2 in the post-season.

The Chiefs have been a dominant team on offense this season, finishing the regular season by far #1 in first down rate at 45.18% (Rams are 2nd at 43.05%), but they’ve been far from dominant on defense. They finished the season ranked 24th in points per game allowed at 26.3 and were even worse in first down rate allowed at 42.20%, worst in the NFL. Against playoff qualifiers, their defensive numbers were downright ugly, as they allowed 36.0 points per game and a ridiculous 46.54% first down rate in 6 regular season games against playoff qualifiers (2-4).

The strength of this defense is its pass rush, which led the league in sacks, led by edge rushers Dee Ford (13 sacks) and Justin Houston (9 sacks) and interior rusher Chris Jones (15.5 sacks). Combined with their explosive offense, their pass rush has allowed them to dominant weaker opponents. They go up big early with their offense, forcing their opponents to pass more than they’d like (most pass attempts against in the league), which allows their pass rushers to pin their ears back and go after the quarterback. That same formula hasn’t worked as well against tougher opponents, who have been able to exploit their weaknesses against running games and quick passing games. The Patriots both rode of those to victory last week, so it’s not hard to imagine them following a similar formula this week in Kansas City.

The big exception to the Chiefs’ defensive struggles this season came against the Colts last week, in a game in which the Chiefs held the Colts to a 30.19% first down rate in a blowout 31-13 win. However, when you look at their whole season, last week’s performance looks like a fluke, especially when you consider there wasn’t any personnel change that was made between last week’s game and a month ago, when they allowed 67 points combined in a 2-game stretch against the Chargers and Seahawks.

The one player who could boost this defense is Eric Berry, who is expected to play through a heel injury this week, after sitting out the previous 2 games, but he’s played just 99 snaps since week 1 of 2017, so it’s unclear how much having him active will benefit the Chiefs. Unless the Chiefs suddenly became a different defense overnight or Eric Berry can somehow return to Pro Bowl form by Sunday, I like the Patriots’ chances of pulling the upset and they’re a great bet if you can get the full field goal.

New England Patriots 30 Kansas City Chiefs 27 Upset Pick +140

Pick against the spread: New England +3

Confidence: High

Philadelphia Eagles at New Orleans Saints: 2018 NFC Divisional Round Pick

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Philadelphia Eagles (10-7) at New Orleans Saints (13-3)

When these two teams met in week 11, the Saints destroyed the Eagles in a game with the 2nd highest victory of margin on the season, beating them 48-7. A lot has changed for these Eagles since then though. For one, starting quarterback Carson Wentz was shut down with a back injury, after struggling through it for much of the season, which has allowed Nick Foles to take over under center. Not only is Foles playing at a high level, but this team really does seem to play at a higher level with their backs against the wall and a backup quarterback under center, winning 6 of 7 games since the Saints dropped them to 4-6 a couple months ago.

Their defense is also playing better, with talented every down linebacker Jordan Hicks back from injury and young cornerbacks Rasul Douglas and Avonte Maddox stepping up in an injury ravaged secondary. Hicks was originally injured in the loss to the Saints, as was Maddox and stud center Jason Kelce. Having those three in the lineup and Foles playing well under center should make this a much different game this time around.

That being said, the Saints are so good that they could still easily cover this spread. I’m taking the 8 points with the Eagles, who haven’t lost any of their other games by more than a touchdown, but the Saints are the most talented team in the league, so it wouldn’t be a surprise if they were able to win by multiple scores again here at home. I have this line calculated at New Orleans -7.5, so we’re barely getting any line value with the Eagles at +8. I’m taking them for pick ‘em purposes, but I would be surprised if the Saints didn’t advance. The Eagles have won straight up in all 5 games in which they’ve been underdogs with Nick Foles as the starter over the past two seasons, but I expect that miracle run to end this week.

New Orleans Saints 31 Philadelphia Eagles 24

Pick against the spread: Philadelphia +8

Confidence: None

Los Angeles Chargers at New England Patriots: 2018 AFC Divisional Round Pick

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Los Angeles Chargers (13-4) at New England Patriots (11-5)

I’ve been high on the Chargers all year and, with the Bears eliminated, the Chargers now rank 1st among remaining playoff teams on the season in first down rate differential at +5.24%. Since week 10, they rank 3rd at +6.04%. Making this even more impressive is the fact that they have next to no homefield advantage in Los Angeles, where they struggle to attract home fans, even when playing well. Outside of Los Angeles, they are a perfect 9-0, covering the spread in 8 of 9 games and winning by an average of 9.11 points per game. That is a trend that actually dates back to their final few years in San Diego, when they frequently had large visiting crowds, as they are 37-19-3 ATS away from home since 2012.

The Patriots, meanwhile, have been pretty underwhelming statistically for a playoff team. They have a +2.67% first down rate differential on the season, 2nd worst among remaining playoff teams, and they didn’t go on their normal late season run this year either, with a +2.68% first down rate differential since week 10, 4th worst among remaining playoff teams. That being said, I’m hesitant to bet too heavily against the Patriots, who are not a team I want to underestimate in the playoffs, even with them giving 4 points to a Chargers team that has been statistically better almost across the board this season.

This is still a talented Patriots roster, one that has underachieved for stretches of the season, but also has shown signs of dominance, with 8 double digit wins and a 4-0 record against playoff qualifiers. If Tom Brady and Rob Gronkowski can be healthier off of a bye, this is still a very scary team, especially at home, where they are undefeated this season with an average margin of victory of 16.25 points per game.

Normally home/road disparities are random more than anything (for example the Patriots were 14-1 on the road in 2016-17 before going 3-5 this season), but the Patriots have been dominant at home for close to two decades, going 140-26 since 2001, including 112-18 against the AFC. On top of that, they are a ridiculous 36-12 against teams with a better record than them with Tom Brady under center and they should be more than up to the challenge of taking on an elite Chargers team. Four points isn’t a huge cushion, but I do want to put a small bet on the Chargers, even though I do ultimately expect the Patriots to pull out the victory.

New England Patriots 24 Los Angeles Chargers 23

Pick against the spread: LA Chargers +4

Confidence: Medium