NFL Picks

Miami Dolphins at New England Patriots: 2025 Week 18 NFL Pick

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Miami Dolphins (7-9) at New England Patriots (13-3)

I made a big bet on the Dolphins last week as 6-point home underdogs against the Buccaneers, but that was much more a bet against the Buccaneers, who have one win since week 8 and just two wins by more than three points all season, rather than on the Dolphins. The Dolphins won that game straight up, but they needed to win the turnover battle by three to do so, which is not consistent week-to-week. First down rate and yards per play are much more consistent and the Dolphins lost the first down rate battle (-8.23%) and yards per play battle (-0.51) to a Buccaneers team that ranks 20th and 28th in those metrics respectively. 

The Dolphins’ win last week also puts them in a bad spot, as teams tend to struggle after big home upset wins, covering at a 40.8% rate the week after winning as home underdogs of five points or more, including a 34.9% cover rate when they are underdogs of five or more again. Additionally, the Dolphins historically have struggled against good teams in the Mike McDaniel era, going 2-10 straight up and 3-9 ATS against teams that are .500 or better in week 11 or later. This season specifically, they are 6-2 straight up against teams with a losing record, but just 1-7 against teams that are .500 or better, with four double digit losses, three of which came on the road in their four road games against teams with a .500 or better record (8-8 Carolina is the one exception).

Making matters worse, the Dolphins will be without two of their best offensive playmakers, running back De’Von Achane and tight end Darren Waller, this week due to injury. Despite this, the Dolphins are only 10.5-point underdogs in New England this week, against a Patriots team that is one of the best in the league and that is getting healthier this week, with wide receiver Kayshon Boutte, left tackle Will Campbell, and defensive tackle Milton Williams all set to return. 

This line has crept up to 11 or 11.5 since I locked this in at 10.5 earlier this week, but I still like the Patriots a lot at that number. One potential concern is the Patriots pulling starters late if the Broncos are up big on the short-handed Chargers, which would eliminate the Patriots from contention for the #1 seed, but the Broncos have two double digit wins all year and play a lot of close games, so I am not really concerned about that. The Patriots are my top pick this week.

New England Patriots 34 Miami Dolphins 13

Pick against the spread: New England -10.5

Confidence: Pick of the Week

Seattle Seahawks at San Francisco 49ers: 2025 Week 18 NFL Pick

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Seattle Seahawks (13-3) at San Francisco 49ers (12-4)

The 49ers have been on fire since getting quarterback Brock Purdy back from injury, winning six straight games while Purdy has played at a borderline MVP level over that stretch. This week, he will be without left tackle Trent Williams due to injury, but he will get tight end George Kittle back after he missed his sixth game of the season due to injury last week. As a result of their recent winning streak, the public seems to not understand why the Seahawks are favored by a point on the road in this game, betting on the 49ers heavily. The Seahawks are a big step up from the teams they have played on their winning streak though, as they rank 2nd in first down rate differential (+5.55%) and 1st in yards per play differential (+1.34). 

The 49ers, on the other hand, rank 7th in first down rate differential (2.35%) and 18th in yards per play differential (-0.07). Part of that is due to the injuries the 49ers have had this season and they are overall healthier than they have been, but my roster rankings still suggest the oddsmakers are right to favor the visitor in this game and, if anything, this line is a little short, with my calculated line at -2.5. There isn’t nearly enough here for the Seahawks to be worth betting, but they should be the right side for pick ‘em purposes.

Seattle Seahawks 26 San Francisco 49ers 24

Pick against the spread: Seattle -1

Confidence: Low

Carolina Panthers at Tampa Bay Buccaneers: 2025 Week 18 NFL Pick

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Carolina Panthers (8-8) at Tampa Bay Buccaneers (7-9)

I have had a lot of success betting against the Buccaneers in recent weeks. They started the season 5-1, but were never as good as their record suggested, with four of those five wins coming by three points or fewer. Since then, the Buccaneers have gone 2-8 with only one ATS cover in their last ten games, including eight straight non-covers. They still are alive for a playoff spot, but only because they play in the weakest division in the NFL. 

Unfortunately, we’re not really getting good line value going against the Buccaneers anymore, as their record now largely lines up with where they rank in first down rate differential (20th at -0.91%) and yards per play differential (28th at -0.62). The Buccaneers are also starting to get healthier. Quarterback Baker Mayfield and wide receiver Emeka Egbuka are clearly playing at less than 100%, while starting cornerback Jamel Dean joins fellow starting cornerback Zyon McCollum on the sidelines this week, but left tackle Tristan Wirfs (5 games missed), right tackle Luke Goedeke (6 games missed), running back Bucky Irving (7 games missed), and wide receivers Mike Evans (9 games missed), Chris Godwin (8 games missed), and Jalen McMillan (13 games missed) have all returned from multigame absences.

On top of that, the Buccaneers’ opponents this week, the Carolina Panthers, have been much worse in yards per play differential (26th at -0.57) and first down rate differential (26th at -1.89%) than their record would suggest. As evidence of how the public perception of the Buccaneers have shifted in just the past two weeks, the Buccaneers were 3-point road favorites in Carolina two weeks ago, which translates to about 7-point home favorites, but this week in this rematch they are still just 3-point favorites at home. That line is right where I have it calculated, so we aren’t getting any value with either side. I am taking the Panthers for pick ‘em purposes only because they are 7-0 ATS and 6-1 straight up as underdogs off of a loss this season, but this is a small sample size and could prove to not mean anything, so this is a no confidence pick.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers 23 Carolina Panthers 20

Pick against the spread: Carolina +3

Confidence: None

2025 Week 17 NFL Picks

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Pick of the Week

CLE 20 (+4.5) PIT 17 Upset Pick +160

High Confidence Picks

DEN 20 KC 13 (+13.5)

DET 28 (-7) MIN 17

DAL 34 (-7) WAS 20

MIA 24 (+6) TB 23 Upset Pick +220

NE 26 NYJ 17 (+13.5)

Medium Confidence Picks

NO 22 (-2.5) TEN 17

JAX 27 IND 24 (+6)

BUF 27 (-1) PHI 24

NYG 23 (-1) LV 20

Low Confidence Picks

SF 31 (-3) CHI 26

GB 19 BAL 17 (+3.5)

LAR 31 ATL 24 (+8.5)

No Confidence Picks

LAC 17 HOU 16 (+1.5)

SEA 24 CAR 17 (+7.5)

CIN 34 (-7) ARZ 27

Dallas Cowboys at Washington Commanders: 2025 Week 17 NFL Pick

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Dallas Cowboys (6-8-1) at Washington Commanders (4-11)

The Cowboys have had the biggest disparity between their offensive and defensive performance of any team in the league. While their offense has been elite, ranking 4th in yards per play and 2nd in first down rate, their defense has been as bad as their offense has been good, ranking 30th in yards per play allowed and 32nd in first down rate allowed. Fortunately, offensive performance tends to be a lot more predictive than defensive performance, especially at this stage of the season. 

The Commanders are also much better on offense than defense, ranking 15th in yards per play and 16th in first down rate, as opposed to 31st in yards per play allowed and 31st in first down rate allowed, but they will likely be down to their third string quarterback Josh Johnson, who is a big downgrade even from backup Marcus Mariota. Johnson is in his age 39 season, has not made a start since 2021, and recorded a 28.8 PFF grade across 9 attempts in relief of Mariota last week.  While the Cowboys’ elite offense should be able to move the ball with ease against the Commanders’ terrible defense, the Commanders may be unable to move the ball even against the Cowboys’ terrible defense because of their quarterback situation. 

The Cowboys also seem to have found their best offensive line combination, moving Tyler Smith, their best offensive lineman, to left tackle, the most important offensive line position and previously their biggest weakness. TJ Bass then replaced Smith at his previous spot of left guard, where he is a better option than Nate Thomas or Tyler Guyton were at left tackle. This even further boosts their elite offense. I think the Cowboys are significantly undervalued as 7-point road favorites, so they are worth a big bet this week. I am taking a risk locking in this pick before the Commanders’ quarterback is announced, but it seems pretty likely it won’t be Mariota and I don’t want to risk this line going up to 7.5, which it may if/when Mariota is announced as out. If you are reading this and Mariota happens to be starting for the Commanders, I would need the line to go down to 6.5 for the Cowboys to be worth betting.

Dallas Cowboys 34 Washington Commanders 20

Pick against the spread: Dallas -7

Confidence: High

Detroit Lions at Minnesota Vikings: 2025 Week 17 NFL Pick

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Detroit Lions (8-7) at Minnesota Vikings (7-8)

The Lions’ home loss to the Steelers last week was surprising, for a couple reasons. For one, the Lions were big home favorites, favored by a full touchdown. On top of that, the Lions were coming off of a loss the previous week and historically they have done very well off of a loss in the Dan Campbell era, going 23-10 ATS prior to last week, including a whopping 15 straight wins following a loss, the longest such streak in NFL history. 

As a result of last week’s loss, the Lions are again in that same spot this week and, despite the fact that they struggled in this spot last week, I still think betting the Lions off of a loss is a good bet, as they are still 23-11 ATS off of a loss in the Dan Campbell era, outperforming the spread by an average of 3.4 points per game. The Lions also have an easier matchup this week, facing a 7-8 Vikings team that is starting third string quarterback Max Brosmer, with starter JJ McCarthy and backup Carson Wentz both injured.

An undrafted rookie, Brosmer was horrendous in his first career start earlier this year, completing 19 of 30 for 126 yards and 4 interceptions in a 26-0 loss to the Seahawks. Brosmer looked a little better in relief of an injured McCarthy last week against the Giants and, in terms of defensive performance, the Lions are closer to the Giants than the Seahawks, but Brosmer still has an overall 14.5 QBR and a 29.7 PFF grade on 47 pass attempts this season, worst among all quarterbacks with at least 10 pass attempts this season.

The Vikings beat the Lions in Detroit earlier this year, but that was with a healthy McCarthy and that win against puts the Vikings in a bad spot this week, as it is tough for a significantly inferior team to hang with a divisional opponent twice in the same season. Overall, divisional underdogs of 3.5 or more cover at just a 42.7% rate with a -1.3 margin in a same-season, regular season rematch against a team they previously beat as underdogs of 3.5 or more. The Lions are also better than their record would suggest, as they are just 1-5 in one score games, despite an 8-7 record. They have seven wins by more than seven points this season and I think, in a great spot against a third string quarterback, they will get their eighth this week. They are worth a significant bet.

Detroit Lions 28 Minnesota Vikings 17

Pick against the spread: Detroit -7

Confidence: High

Denver Broncos at Kansas City Chiefs: 2025 Week 17 NFL Pick

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Denver Broncos (11-3) at Kansas City Chiefs (6-8)

The Chiefs have had a disastrous two-week stretch. First, they were eliminated from playoff contention in a loss to the Chargers and lost quarterback Patrick Mahomes to a torn ACL. Then last week, backup quarterback Gardner Minshew suffered a season ending knee injury of his own in a game in which the Chiefs lost by 17 to arguably the worst team in the league in the Tennessee Titans. As a result, the Chiefs are now 13.5-point home underdogs against the Broncos, a week after being just 5.5-point home underdogs on the advance list and, despite that, the vast majority of the public money is still on the Broncos. 

As crazy as it sounds, I actually think this has created a good betting spot. The Chiefs are very injury plagued, but they still have a fair amount of talented players healthy on this roster, particularly on defense. I think their poor performance last week was more the result of a lack of effort in a bad spot, off of a playoff elimination, against a last place team, four days before a nationally televised Christmas game against a division leader, rather than a complete lack of talent. I expect a much better effort this week in a much better spot. 

The Broncos also don’t have a lot of big wins by big margins, winning by more than four points just five times and by more than eight points just two times, neither of which came on the road. In fact, their average margin of victory in four road wins is just 3.75 points. Bad teams like the Raiders (twice), Jets, Giants, Titans, and Commanders have all played the Broncos within 8 points this season and I like the Chiefs’ chances of at least keeping it within 13. This is a high confidence pick.

Denver Broncos 20 Kansas City Chiefs 13

Pick against the spread: Kansas City +13.5

Confidence: High

2025 Week 16 NFL Picks

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Pick of the Week

LAR 27 (+1.5) SEA 23 Upset Pick +105

High Confidence Picks

DET 33 (-7) PIT 20

SF 24 IND 23 (+6)

Medium Confidence Picks

NO 21 (-5.5) NYJ 13

DAL 28 (-1.5) LAC 24

HOU 24 LV 13 (+14.5)

KC 23 (-2.5) TEN 17

PHI 24 WAS 19 (+7.5)

Low Confidence Picks

CIN 30 (-4) MIA 24

BUF 24 CLE 15 (+10.5)

ATL 24 ARZ 23 (+3)

TB 24 CAR 23 (+3)

DEN 20 JAX 17 (+3.5)

No Confidence Picks

MIN 24 NYG 23 (+2.5)

BAL 30 (-3) NE 27

CHI 24 GB 23 (+1.5)

Philadelphia Eagles at Washington Commanders: 2025 Week 16 NFL Pick

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Philadelphia Eagles (9-5) at Washington Commanders (4-10)

The Eagles don’t have a lot of blowout victories this season, with just two of their nine wins coming by more than seven points, which is relevant, considering this line favors the Eagles by seven. Those two wins by seven points came against the Giants and Raiders, who are among the worst teams in the league. The Commanders have played three games against the Giants and Raiders this season and are 3-0 in those three games, even with backup quarterback Marcus Mariota starting two of those three games. That suggests that, even with Mariota remaining under center, the Commanders are on a different level than the only two teams the Eagles have beaten by more than seven points this season. The Eagles’ two wins by more than seven points also came at home, while this game is in Washington. 

All of that suggests that we are getting some line value with the Commanders as 7-point home underdogs. Unfortunately, I don’t think it is enough for the Commanders to be worth betting, given that they will be playing without talented left tackle Laremy Tunsil in this game for the first time all season, which figures to be a massive loss for this offense. The Commanders are still my pick for pick ‘em purposes, but this is only a low confidence pick.

Update: +7.5 is available in some places. If you can get that, I think the Commanders are bettable.

Philadelphia Eagles 24 Washington Commanders 19

Pick against the spread: Washington +7.5

Confidence: Medium

Green Bay Packers at Chicago Bears: 2025 Week 16 NFL Pick

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Green Bay Packers (9-4-1) at Chicago Bears (10-4)

A couple weeks ago, I bet on the Packers as 6.5-point home favorites against the Bears and they covered, but a lot has changed in the past couple weeks. For one, while the Packers did cover in that game, it was closer than I would have liked, as the Packers needed a late game interception to seal a 7-point victory. The Bears then followed that game up by playing arguably their most impressive game of the season, dominating the Browns by a score of 31-3. The Browns are obviously not a tough opponent, but it was by far the biggest margin of victory that the Bears had in any of their games, as they previously had a lack of blowout victories, despite an overall relatively weak schedule. 

Meanwhile, the Packers lost in Denver last week and, more importantly, they had several key players suffer major injuries. Their best defensive player, Micah Parsons, is out for the season, while 10 other players are listed questionable this week on their injury report. Most notably, their top running back Josh Jacobs, their best offensive lineman Zach Tom, and talented starting safety Evan Williams did not practice all week and are likely on the wrong side of questionable. 

The Bears are missing Luther Burden, who was their leading receiver in the first matchup, but they could be getting linebacker Tremaine Edmunds back from a 4-game absence and, even if they don’t, they obviously are in a much better injury position than the Packers are, relative to a couple weeks ago. Additionally, this game is obviously in Chicago, whereas the previous matchup was in Green Bay, where the Packers have a big advantage late in the season. In week 10 or later, the Packers are 22-11 ATS at home since head coach Matt LaFleur’s first season in 2019, but they do not have the same advantage on the road. 

None of this is to say I want to bet the Bears this week. The Packers still have significant edges in first down rate differential (+3.31% vs. -0.26%) and yards per play differential (+0.88 vs. -0.36). However, despite that, I would take them on this even line for pick ‘em purposes, given the current injury state of both teams. Depending on the final inactives and where this line ends up, I may change this pick, but, for now, the Bears are my pick.

Update: Tom and Williams are out for the Packers, but I was expecting that and Jacobs is active. Despite that, this line has moved to favor Chicago by 1.5. This is still a no confidence pick, but I am changing to Green Bay.

Chicago Bears 24 Green Bay Packers 23

Pick against the spread: Green Bay +1.5

Confidence: None