NFL Picks

Seattle Seahawks at Arizona Cardinals: 2025 Week 4 NFL Pick

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Seattle Seahawks (2-1) at Arizona Cardinals (2-1)

Going into the season, I thought the Cardinals were the sleeper team in the NFC West, but the Seahawks have been the better team through three weeks, with a first down rate differential of +5.01% and a yards per play differential of +0.97, as opposed to -1.90% and -0.12 for the Cardinals. The Seahawks took a big risk this off-season swapping out Geno Smith for Sam Darnold at quarterback, but it seems to have paid off as Darnold has been an upgrade thus far.  Meanwhile, the Cardinals have dealt with a lot of injuries, with left tackle Paris Johnson, running back James Conner, cornerbacks Will Johnson and Garrett Williams, and interior defender Walter Nolen, all expected starters, missing time already this season. 

Paris Johnson could be back this week, but that’s not a guarantee and the Seahawks are getting healthier, with top cornerback Devon Witherspoon and top safety Julian Love set to return this week. With the Seahawks favored by 1.5 points on the road, I would need Paris Johnson to be inactive for the Seahawks to be worth betting, as the Cardinals’ offense was significantly worse with him out of the lineup last season, but the Seahawks should be the right side for pick ‘em purposes regardless.

Seattle Seahawks 23 Arizona Cardinals 20

Pick against the spread: Seattle -1.5

Confidence: Low

2025 Week 3 NFL Picks

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142-89 ATS (61.5%) on Medium Confidence or Higher (Money Picks) since 2023, 57.4% ATS all-time

Pick of the Week

NE 24 (+1.5) PIT 17 Upset Pick +105

High Confidence Picks

LV 23 (+3) WAS 20 Upset Pick +130

Medium Confidence Picks

SEA 19 NO 14 (+7.5)

ATL 26 CAR 24 (+5.5)

ARZ 24 (+3) SF 23 Upset Pick +125

MIN 23 (-3) CIN 17

Low Confidence Picks

GB 23 CLE 17 (+8.5)

IND 23 TEN 20 (+4.5)

PHI 23 LAR 20 (+3.5)

LAC 26 DEN 24 (+3)

BAL 33 (-4.5) DET 27

BUF 34 (-11.5) MIA 20

No Confidence Picks

DAL 35 (-1) CHI 33

KC 23 NYG 17 (+6.5)

TB 24 (-6.5) NYJ 17

JAX 17 HOU 16 (+1.5)

Miami Dolphins at Buffalo Bills: 2025 Week 3 NFL Pick

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Miami Dolphins (0-2) at Buffalo Bills (2-0)

The Bills are in a good spot as big divisional favorites on Thursday Night Football, as teams are 38-20 ATS as home favorites of 7.5+ in this spot as long as both teams are on short rest. On top of that, the Dolphins have a history of struggling on the road against good opponents, as they are 1-7 ATS against winning teams on the road over the past three seasons. Unfortunately, we’ve lost all line value with the Bills in the past week, with this line swinging from favoring the Bills by 8.5 on the early line to now favoring them by 11.5. My calculated line has the Bills favored by 10.5, which isn’t enough line value to consider picking the Dolphins in a bad spot, but it’s enough to convince me not to bet on the Bills. Buffalo is still my pick, but only for pick ‘em purposes.

Buffalo Bills 34 Miami Dolphins 20

Pick against the spread: Buffalo -11.5

Confidence: Low

2025 Week 2 NFL Picks

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139-85 ATS (62.1%) on Medium Confidence or Higher (Money Picks) since 2023, 57.6% ATS all-time

Pick of the Week

BAL 34 (-11.5) CLE 13

High Confidence Picks

ARZ 34 (-6.5) CAR 20

LV 28 (+3.5) LAC 26 Upset Pick +155

SEA 24 (+3.5) PIT 23 Upset Pick +145

Medium Confidence Picks

DAL 28 (-4.5) NYG 20

KC 23 (+1.5) PHI 20 Upset Pick +105

CIN 28 JAX 27 (+3.5)

MIN 26 ATL 24 (+3.5)

Low Confidence Picks

GB 21 (-3) WAS 17

NE 24 MIA 23 (+2.5) Upset Pick +110

IND 17 DEN 16 (+2.5) Upset Pick +110

TB 19 (+2.5) HOU 17 Upset Pick +120

BUF 25 NYJ 20 (+6.5)

DET 27 (-6) CHI 20

No Confidence Picks

LAR 21 TEN 16 (+5.5)

SF 20 (-3) NO 17

Washington Commanders at Green Bay Packers: 2025 Week 2 NFL Pick

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Washington Commanders (1-0) at Green Bay Packers (1-0)

The Packers are in a good spot this week. Non-divisional home favorites cover at a 60.7% rate on Thursday Night Football because it’s very tough for a team to travel on a short week, unless it is a divisional matchup between familiar opponents or unless the visitor is the superior team, neither of which are the case in this game. Unfortunately, the Packers enter this game very banged up, likely to be without top cornerback Nate Hobbs and a pair of starting offensive linemen in Aaron Banks and Zach Tom, the latter of whom is their best offensive lineman. None of those three have been ruled out, but Banks and Tom did not practice all week, while Hobbs did not play week 1 and has yet to practice in full since having off-season knee surgery.

My calculated line has the Packers favored by 3 in their current injury situation, but this line has remained at 3.5, despite the Packers likely absences, which is a big deal because about 1 in 6 games are decided by exactly a field goal. If the Packers get some good injury news or this line drops to 3, I may increase the confidence of this pick, but for now this is a no confidence pick and, if both teams were on regular rest, I would be taking the Commanders +3.5.

Update: This line has dropped to 3 in some places so I am increasing this to a low confidence pick, but I would need at least Zach Tom to play for this line to be bettable.

Green Bay Packers 21 Washington Commanders 17

Pick against the spread: Green Bay -3

Confidence: Low

2025 Week 1 NFL Picks

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131-85 ATS on Medium Confidence or Higher (Money Picks) in 2023-2024, 57.3% ATS all-time

Pick of the Week

DEN 20 TEN 17 (+8.5)

High Confidence Picks

NYJ 19 (+3) PIT 17 Upset Pick +130

ARZ 27 (-6.5) NO 13

Medium Confidence Picks

JAX 31 (-3.5) CAR 24

SF 24 (-1) SEA 20

IND 20 (-1) MIA 16

LV 26 (+2.5) NE 24 Upset Pick +125

MIN 27 (-1) CHI 23

Low Confidence Picks

CIN 24 CLE 20 (+5.5)

BAL 30 (-1) BUF 27

TB 27 (PK) ATL 24

KC 24 (-3) LAC 17

PHI 27 (-7.5) DAL 17

No Confidence Picks

WAS 27 (-6) NYG 20

LAR 20 HOU 17 (+3.5)

GB 27 (-2) DET 24

Los Angeles Chargers vs. Kansas City Chiefs: 2025 Week 1 NFL Pick

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Los Angeles Chargers (0-0) vs. Kansas City Chiefs (0-0) in Brazil

The Chiefs won 15 games and made the Super Bowl a year ago, but they didn’t have a lot of wins by big margins, with just three of their 17 victories coming by more than 10 points, six coming by more than 7 points, and six coming by 3 points or fewer, relevant considering this line is Kansas City -3. Including their three losses, just over half (11) of the twenty games the Chiefs played last season resulted in them winning by more than 3 points. 

There is potential for the Chiefs to win more games by bigger margins this season once their receiving corps gets to full strength, but they are going to be without their eventual #1 receiver Rashee Rice for the first six games of the season due to suspension. Rice missed most of last season with injury, but it’s worth noting that if you exclude the four games he played last season, the Chiefs won by more than 3 points in exactly half of their games, 8 out of 16. On top of that, the Chiefs have also lost talented guard Joe Thuney and top safety Justin Reid from last year’s team, though the addition of rookie left tackle Josh Simmons should somewhat offset the loss of Thuney.

Given all of that, it wouldn’t be wise to confidently bet the Chiefs as 3-point favorites in a neutral site against a decent Chargers team. My calculated line is exactly where the actual line is at -3. One thing working in the Chiefs’ favor is that the better team tends to cover in international games as they tend to be better prepared for the unusual circumstances, leading to favorites being 37-20 ATS in international games all time. However, I don’t think that is enough to be confident in the Chiefs covering this spread. The Chiefs are my pick for pick ‘em purposes, but this is a low confidence pick.

Kansas City Chiefs 24 Los Angeles Chargers 17

Pick against the spread: Kansas City -3

Confidence: Low

Dallas Cowboys at Philadelphia Eagles: 2025 Week 1 NFL Pick

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Dallas Cowboys (0-0) at Philadelphia Eagles (0-0)

The Eagles are defending Super Bowl Champions at home in the first game of the season, which tends to be a good spot for teams, going 13-6-1 ATS since 2005. Unfortunately, we have lost significant line value in the last week, with this line moving from Philadelphia -6.5 to -7.5 in the wake of the Micah Parsons trade. Losing Parsons will be a huge loss for the Cowboys, but he was unlikely to play a significant snap count in this game and might not have played at all after a monthlong holdout, so that line movement, crossing over a key number of 7, seems like an overreaction.

As much as Parsons being traded is a big deal, the Eagles lost a lot this off-season as well and are unlikely to be as good as they were down the stretch last season as a result, particularly on defense, where five of the eleven players who played at least 500 snaps for them are no longer with the team, after being a league best unit in 2024. I am still taking the Eagles for pick ‘em purposes, but I can’t bet them confidently as long as the line is a touchdown or more.

Philadelphia Eagles 27 Dallas Cowboys 17

Pick against the spread: Philadelphia -7.5

Confidence: Low

Kansas City Chiefs vs Philadelphia Eagles: Super Bowl LIX Pick

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Kansas CIty Chiefs (17-2) vs. Philadelphia Eagles (17-3) in Super Bowl LIX

The Chiefs are small favorites for the second straight game, favored by 1.5 points in the Super Bowl against the Eagles after being favored by 1.5 points against the Bills in the AFC Championship. Against the Bills, I bet on the Chiefs, citing the Chiefs’ history when they’re not big favorites, and their history in close games. Overall, the Chiefs are 51-19 in games decided by seven points or fewer when Patrick Mahomes starts, including 11-0 this season, and they are 20-6-1 ATS as underdogs or favorites of less than three when Mahomes starts, including 8-0 ATS in the post-season. Because of that, the Chiefs are close to an automatic bet in those spots, unless there is a good reason not to pick them.

However, this game against the Eagles is different and there are a couple good reasons to bet against the Chiefs this time around. For one, the Eagles have been just as good in close games as the Chiefs in recent years, going 20-5 over the past three seasons in games decided by seven points or fewer when Jalen Hurts starts and finishes the game. On top of that, while the Bills and Chiefs were pretty evenly matched, the Eagles look like a significantly better team, so this game might not even end up being that close.

The Eagles had a significant edge in both first down rate differential (+2.78% vs. +1.82%) and yards per play differential (+0.91 vs. -0.06), this season, excluding both teams’ meaningless week 18 game. The Eagles also are in a much better injury situation now than they have been for much of the season. The Chiefs have recently gotten back key players in starting wide receiver Marquise Brown (15 games missed), starting edge defender Charles Omenihu (11 games missed), and starting cornerback Jaylen Watson (11 games missed) and they have significantly improved their offensive line by moving Joe Thuney from left guard to left tackle, which is a more important position. However, that pales in comparison to the Eagles.

All-Pro wide receiver AJ Brown (4 games missed), talented wide receiver Devonta Smith (4 games), talented tight end Dallas Goedert (7 games), All-Pro left tackle Jordan Mailata (5 games), All-Pro right tackle Lane Johnson (2 games), and top cornerback Darius Slay (3 games) all missed significant time this season and have since returned, while talented edge defender Brandon Graham (9 games missed) seems likely to return. Having Hurts healthy is probably the most important one, as the Eagles have won 12 straight games that he has started and finished.

In the current injury situations these two teams are in, the Eagles have a 5-point edge in my roster rankings. The Chiefs obviously have the edge at quarterback, but aside from that, there isn’t a single other position group where the Chiefs have the edge. The Patrick Mahomes over Jalen Hurts edge is significant, but not nearly enough to make up for the fact that the Eagles are a much better team overall. 

In a lot of ways, this reminds me of the Chiefs’ Super Bowl matchup against the Buccaneers a few years ago, when the Chiefs got to the Super Bowl on the strength of a lot of close victories (9-0 in one-score games that season), before running into a much better team and getting blown out. Even if this game does end up being relatively close, the Chiefs wouldn’t necessarily have the edge in a close game either, given Jalen Hurts recent track record in close games. I wouldn’t make a big wager on the Eagles because of the Chiefs’ history as underdogs or small favorites in the playoffs, but I think we’re getting too much line value with the Eagles to pass on betting on them.

Philadelphia Eagles 27 Kansas City Chiefs 22 Upset Pick +105

Pick against the spread: Philadelphia +1.5

Confidence: Medium

Washington Commanders at Philadelphia Eagles: 2024 NFC Championship Pick

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Washington Commanders (14-5) at Philadelphia Eagles (16-3)

The Eagles have been the slightly better of these two teams statistically, winning two more games and finishing the season with a first down rate differential of +2.64% and a yards per play differential of +0.77, as opposed to +0.98% and +0.15 respectively for the Commanders. However, the Eagles’ big edge is their injury situation. While the Commanders will be without their top offensive lineman Sam Cosmi in this game, after being relatively healthy throughout the regular season, the Eagles are much healthier than they have been for much of the season. Most notably, key players like All-Pro wide receiver AJ Brown (4 games), talented wide receiver Devonta Smith (4 games), talented tight end Dallas Goedert (7 games), All-Pro left tackle Jordan Mailata (5 games), All-Pro right tackle Lane Johnson (2 games), and top cornerback Darius Slay (3 games) all have returned after missing significant time with injury this season. 

In the injury situations these two teams are currently in, the Eagles have a 6-point edge over the Commanders in my roster rankings, with an edge in every position group, except quarterback. The Jayden Daniels over Jalen Hurts edge is significant, but not nearly enough to make up for the fact that the Eagles are a much better team overall. There isn’t quite enough here for the Eagles to be worth betting as 6-point home favorites, but they should be the right side for pick ‘em purposes.

Philadelphia Eagles 31 Washington Commanders 23

Pick against the spread: Philadelphia -6

Confidence: Low