Quarterback

Last off-season, the Panthers were coming off of a 2023 season in which they had the worst record in the league at 2-15 and didn’t even get their own #1 overall pick, which was part of the trade package they used to move up with the Bears to get the #1 overall pick in 2023, which they used on Bryce Young. Young was the biggest part of the problem in 2023, completing 59.8% of his passes for an average of 5.46 YPA, 11 touchdowns, and 10 interceptions, finishing with a 56.4 PFF grade (40th among 45 eligible quarterbacks), and leading an offense that ranked 29th in first down rate and 32nd in yards per play. 

Going into 2024, the Panthers made significant upgrades on offense around Young, particularly on the offensive line, but their defense looked likely to be worse after losing Brian Burns and Frankie Luvu. At the start of the season, the Panthers’ offense didn’t look any better, while their defense declined significantly, which was exacerbated by the loss of defensive tackle Derrick Brown for the season to injury in week 1. Playing poorly on both sides of the ball, the Panthers lost their first two games of the season by a combined 60 points.

Needing to make a change somewhere, the Panthers opted to bench Bryce Young after just 18 career starts, replacing him with veteran journeyman backup Andy Dalton. That decision improved things on their offense right away. The Panthers won their next game against the Raiders and, while that was the only game the Panthers won out of five with Dalton under center, Dalton looked like a clear upgrade over Bryce Young, completing 66.3% of his passes for an average of 6.18 YPA, 7 touchdowns, and 6 interceptions and finishing with a 68.1 PFF grade.

Dalton then suffered an injury, opening the door for Young to get his starting job back and some time on the bench proved to be exactly what he needed. Young started the rest of the way, completing 61.8% of his passes for an average of 6.60 YPA, 15 touchdowns, and 6 interceptions in 10 starts after taking back the starting job. In terms of PFF grade, Young ranked 13th among quarterbacks in the NFL over that stretch at 83.2. The Panthers finished the season just 5-12, but their defense was a much bigger part of the problem than the offense, as they ranked 24th in both first down rate and yards per play, while ranking dead last in first down rate allowed and yards per play allowed. 

There is still some concern for Young developing into a franchise quarterback long-term, but he has done more than enough to keep his starting job into 2025 and his long-term projection is a lot better now than it was a year ago. He will continue being backed up by Andy Dalton, who is one of the most accomplished backup quarterbacks in the league, completing 62.6% of his passes for an average of 7.04 YPA, 253 touchdowns, and 150 interceptions in 168 career starts. However, he’s now heading into his age 38 season and hasn’t been a regular starter for a team since 2019, so he is definitely nearing the end of the line. The Panthers will obviously be hoping Dalton stays on the bench all season with Bryce Young continuing to develop into the quarterback the Panthers expected him to be when they used the #1 overall pick on him.

Grade: B

Receiving Corps

The Panthers opted to use their first round pick, 8th overall, on a wide receiver to help Bryce Young, Tetairoa McMillan. It was a surprising pick because the Panthers seemed to have much bigger needs on defense and McMillan didn’t seem like the best available player either, as he was the top option by default in a weak wide receiver class and probably should have been selected somewhere in the 15-20 range. He does have the upside to develop into a #1 receiver long-term, but he’s an underwhelming option compared to the other wide receivers taken in the top-10 in recent years: JaMarr Chase, Jaylen Waddle, DeVonta Smith, Drake London, Marvin Harrison, Malik Nabers, and Rome Odunze. 

This is the second straight year the Panthers have used a high draft pick on a wide receiver, as they traded up to take Xavier Legette at the end of the first round, 32nd overall, in 2024. Legette was underwhelming as a rookie with a 49/497/4 slash line and 1.19 yards per route run, but he has the upside to be a lot better in his second year in the league, though that’s obviously not a guarantee. Legette actually was outplayed by an undrafted rookie Jalen Coker, who was behind Legette in terms of overall production at 32/478/2, but who was far more efficient, averaging 1.72 yards per route run and totaling almost the same amount of receiving yardage on much fewer targets, 84 to 46. Legette may still have more upside than him long-term and this is a deeper wide receiver room with McMillan being added, but Coker still has a chance to earn a role in 2025.

The veteran of the group is Adam Thielen. Thielen led the team with a 103/1014/4 slash line 2023 and, while that dropped to 48/615/5 in 2024, that was primarily because he missed 7 games due to injury and, overall, his yards per route run average actually increased significantly from 2023 to 2024, going from 1.59 to 2.06. However, Thielen is now heading into his age 35 season, so it remains to be seen how much longer he can continue being a useful receiver, let alone a #1 option. With McMillan being added and Legette and Coker going into their second seasons in the league, I would expect Thielen to play a much smaller role in 2025 than he has over the past two seasons.

The Panthers have four good wide receiver options, so they don’t have much need for depth behind them, but they also have veteran David Moore and 6th round rookie Jimmy Horn. Moore has a decent 1.32 yards per route run average in eight seasons in the league, but that fell to 1.04 in 2024 and now he’s heading into his age 30 season, so he is definitely best as a deep reserve. Horn, meanwhile, is unlikely to contribute in any sort of positive way as a rookie.

The Panthers aren’t nearly as good at tight end. Ja’Tavion Sanders led Panthers tight ends in snaps played last season (531 snaps), but he only had a 33/342/1 slash line with 1.09 yards per route run, while finishing with a 52.5 PFF grade. He was only a 4th round rookie last year and he could be better in his second season in the league, but that’s not necessarily a guarantee. Tommy Tremble also played a role last season with 518 snaps, but he wasn’t any better, with a 23/234/2 slash line, 0.89 yards per route run, and a 54.4 PFF grade. That’s largely in line with how Tremble has played in four seasons in the league since being drafted in the 3rd round in 2021, as he has a career 0.76 yards per route run average, while finishing below 60 on PFF in all four seasons. 

The Panthers did use a 5th round pick in this year’s draft on Mitchell Evans, who has the opportunity to earn a role in a thin position group, but he’s unlikely to make a positive impact as a rookie and, overall, it’s likely their tight end group remains a liability in 2025. The Panthers have a deep wide receiver group with a high upside to somewhat offset their issues at tight end, but their tight end situation does hurt their overall grade in the receiving corps and, as much upside as their wide receivers have, there is also some downside as well, as it is a combination of inexperienced young players and an aging Adam Thielen.

Grade: B

Offensive Line

Along with Bryce Young’s improvement, the biggest reason for the Panthers’ offensive improvement last season was their offensive line, which went from 27th in pass blocking grade and 28th in run blocking grade on PFF in 2023 to 16th in pass blocking grade and 8th in run blocking grade in 2024. The biggest difference was the addition of a pair of talented guards in free agency, Damien Lewis and Robert Hunt, who finished the season with PFF grades of 75.5 and 67.7 respectively, after being signed to contracts of 4 years, 53 million and 5 years, 100 million respectively.

For Lewis, last season was a career best, but it was his 3rd season in five years in the league above 70, so it didn’t come out of nowhere. The 2020 3rd round pick has been inconsistent in his career though, finishing below 60 on PFF in his other two seasons, including a 59.6 PFF grade as recently as 2023. Lewis could remain an above average starter in 2025, but that’s not a guarantee. For Hunt, last year was actually a down year, as he had PFF grades of 73.7 and 77.1 in 2022 and 2023. He’s also been a bit inconsistent in his career, but he’s never finished below 65 on PFF in all five seasons in the league (71 starts), since being selected in the 2nd round in 2020. He comes with a relatively low floor and could easily have a bounce back season in 2025.

The Panthers’ starting tackles in 2024 were the same as 2023, with Ikem Ekwonu at left tackle and Taylor Moton at right tackle. Ekwonu had a career best year in 2024, with a 71.7 PFF grade, but that didn’t come out of nowhere, as he had PFF grades of 65.3 and 67.4 in 2022 and 2023 and has always had a huge upside, as the 6th overall pick in the 2022 NFL Draft. Still only in his age 25 season, Ekwonu should remain an above average starter in 2025 and it wouldn’t be a surprise if he continued developing and had a career best year. 

Moton, meanwhile, had a 77.2 PFF grade in 2024 that was very in line with how he’s played throughout his career, as he’s never finished below 69.3 on PFF in eight years in his league. Moton missed three games with injury last season, but those were the first three games he’s ever missed in his career. Moton is now going into his age 31 season, so he could start declining this season, but, unless he declines significantly, he’s likely to remain at least a solid starter and it’s very possible he doesn’t decline at all, as he hasn’t shown any signs of doing so yet.

Center is the one uncertain position for the Panthers on this offensive line. The Panthers are probably hoping Austin Corbett can win the job, stay healthy, and play well, but that’s not a guarantee. At his best, Corbett had PFF grades of 70.9, 68.8, and 69.1 in 2020, 2021, and 2022, but he has played just nine games due to injury over the past two seasons since then. Corbett’s past success has also mostly been at guard, as the five starts he made at center last season were his first five starts at the position in his career. Corbett had a 62.2 PFF grade last season, but that’s a limited sample size and now Corbett is going into his age 30 season and coming off of another significant injury. He could stay healthy and continue being a capable starting center in 2025, but that’s not a guarantee.

Corbett will face competition for the starting center job from Cade Mays and Brady Christensen, who had some success at center in Corbett’s absence last season. Mays had a 66.1 PFF grade across eight starts at center, while Christensen had a 63.6 PFF grade in six starts, four at center and two at tackle. Mays, a 6th round pick in 2022, was not as good in five starts at guard in 2023 (58.3 PFF grade) and barely played as a rookie (51 snaps), but he showed potential in his new position at center in 2024, albeit in a small sample size. At the very least, he should be a solid reserve option in 2025, if Corbett manages to win the starting job. 

Christensen, meanwhile, is a 2021 3rd round pick who started 24 games in his first three seasons in the league prior to last season, 4 at left tackle, 1 at right tackle, 1 at right guard, and 18 at left guard, and he received PFF grades of 61.6, 57.3, and 56.7 across those three seasons. He would probably be best as a versatile reserve who can play any of the five positions upfront if needed, but he’s also probably in the mix to start at center if he outplays Corbett and Mays. 

In addition to Mays and Christensen, the Panthers have other good reserve options. Swing tackle Yosh Nijman has made 25 starts at tackle over the past four seasons, while receiving PFF grades of 63.2, 63.1, 61.7, and 57.9 respectively. Reserve guard Chandler Zavala, a 2023 4th round pick, struggled with a 26.2 PFF grade across 374 snaps as a rookie, but took a big step forward in 2024 with a 71.2 PFF grade across 198 snaps. This was an above average overall offensive line last season and should remain one again this season.

Grade: B+

Running Backs

The Panthers also had a good running game last season, ranking 10th in the NFL with 4.58 yards per carry, led by feature back Chuba Hubbard, who rushed for 1,195 yards and 10 touchdowns on 250 carries (4.78 YPC). Hubbard benefitted from good run blocking, but he also played at a high level as well, averaging 3.46 yards per carry after contact and breaking tackles at a 19.6% rate, leading to him receiving the 9th highest run grade among running backs on PFF. All of that was a big leap forward for Hubbard, who averaged 3.92 yards per carry across 505 carries with 2.76 yards per carry after contact and a 16.0% missed tackle rate in three seasons in the league prior to last season, after being selected in the 4th round in 2021. 

It’s possible Hubbard isn’t quite as good again in 2025, but I would still expect him to at least be an above average feature back. The Panthers also hedged against Hubbard’s potential regression by signing Rico Dowdle in free agency and using a 4th round pick on Trevor Etienne, giving them more options than last season, when backup running back Miles Sanders only averaged 3.73 yards per carry on 55 carries. Dowdle went undrafted in 2020, but showed some potential with 4.06 yards per carry, 2.91 yards per carry after contact, and a 47.2% carry success rate across 89 carries in 2023 and then broke out with 4.59 yards per carry, 3.28 yards per carry after contact, and a 53.6% carry success rate across 235 carries in 2024. 

Dowdle will be the #2 back in Carolina behind Hubbard, who signed a 4-year, 33.2 million dollar extension during last season, but Dowdle also got a decent chunk of change with a 1-year, 2.75 million dollar deal in free agency this off-season, so he figures to be heavily involved as a backup for a Panthers team that seems to want to rely on their running game and wants a one-two punch at the position. Dowdle could also be the primary passing down back, as he has a decent 1.00 yards per route run average for his career, as opposed to 0.82 for Hubbard. Etienne will be the third back, but he could be good insurance in case either of their top-2 backs get hurt and he also has potential as a receiver, so he also could be involved as a passing down back. This is a talented backfield overall.

Grade: A-

Interior Defenders

As I mentioned, the Panthers had one of the worst defenses in the league last season. Their offense looks like it is going to be at least decent in 2025, but if this team is going to legitimately contend for a playoff spot, they will need to take a big step forward on the defensive side of the ball. The Panthers didn’t make any off-season additions that look likely to move the needle in a significant way, but they do at least get back interior defender Derrick Brown after he was limited to just one game by injury last season, which should be a huge boost to this unit.

In the previous two seasons before missing most of last season, Brown finished with PFF grades of 84.4 and 90.1 across snap counts of 870 and 938 respectively, showing the potential that made him the 7th overall pick in the 2020 NFL Draft. He only managed 3 sacks, but he added 22 hits and a 7.9% pressure rate in 34 games in those two seasons, while dominating as a run defender, with PFF grades of 80.6 and 90.0 against the run, good for 3rd and 2nd among interior defenders in those two seasons. Still only going into his age 27 season, with only one game missed in four seasons in the league prior to last season, Brown has a great chance to bounce back at least to close to his 2022 and 2023 form.

In Brown’s absence last season, A’Shawn Robinson (761 snaps), LaBryan Ray (626 snaps), and Shy Tuttle (610 snaps) all played significant roles and all three struggled mightily, with PFF grades of 54.6, 33.0, and 42.7 respectively. All three remain on the roster, but the Panthers did make a pair of additions at the interior defender position in free agency and, while they are not true impact players, they should still be a significant upgrade at the interior defender position for the Panthers.

Tershawn Wharton was the big addition, coming over from the Chiefs on a 3-year, 45.05 million dollar deal. Wharton has been an effective pass rusher throughout his career, with 13.5 sacks, 13 hits, and a 7.1% pressure rate in 72 career games since going undrafted in 2020, including 6.5 sacks, 4 hits, and a 7.3% pressure rate last season, but he has consistently struggled against the run, finishing below 60 in run defense grade on PFF in all five seasons. He’s also only played 447 snaps per season in his career, primarily as a situational pass rusher. Given the size of his contract, the Panthers may be expecting more than that out of him in 2025. He should remain an effective pass rusher, but he will be a big liability to this team if he has to play an expanded role in run defense situations.

Bobby Brown was also added on a 3-year, 21 million dollar deal and he’s kind of the opposite of Wharton. He has finished above 60 in run defense grade on PFF in all four seasons in the league since going in the 4th round in 2021, but he has only managed a 3.1% pressure rate with just half a sack and 1 hit in his career. He’s also played an even more limited snap count than Wharton in his career, maxing out at 472 snaps per game in a season, while averaging 243 snaps per season across his four seasons in the league. Like Wharton, he will likely play an expanded role in Carolina, but he’s unlikely to make much of an impact in passing situations.

Of the three holdovers who struggled last season, A’Shawn Robinson is the most likely to play a significant role in 2024. Not only was he the best of the bunch by default last season, but he is the most accomplished of the bunch in his career, finishing above 60 in PFF in five of nine seasons in the league, on an average of 34.5 snaps per game and 483 snaps per season. However, two of his four seasons below 60 have come in back-to-back seasons and now he heads into his age 30 season, so his best days are almost definitely behind him. Even in a reserve role, he could struggle.

Shy Tuttle has also had some success in his career, finishing above 60 on PFF in his first four seasons in the league, but he has finished below 60 in back-to-back seasons as well, especially struggling last season, and now he too is going into his age 30 season. LaBryan Ray, meanwhile, is a 2022 undrafted free agent who has never had any success, also struggling with a 54.6 PFF grade across 356 snaps in the first action of his career in 2023 before being even worse in 2024. He may not even make the final roster, with the Panthers also adding Cam Jackson in the 5th round of the draft to give them more depth. With Derrick Brown returning from injury and Tershawn Wharton and Bobby Brown being upgrades by default, this position group looks significantly better than last season, when they were one of the worst interior defender groups in the league.

Grade: B

Edge Defenders

The Panthers also added edge defender Patrick Jones on a 2-year, 15 million dollar deal and used second and third round picks on Nic Scourton and Princely Umanmielen to overhaul their edge defender group, but in the process they released Jadeveon Clowney to save 8 million non-guaranteed ahead of in his age 32 season in 2025 and he was arguably their best defensive player last season, with a 70.8 PFF grade across 650 snaps that was the highest PFF grade by any player on this defense who played significant snaps last season. As a pass rusher, Clowney had 5.5 sacks, 5 hits, and a 12.7% pressure rate and he was also a solid run defender.

It’s unlikely any of the Panthers’ edge defender additions will be as good as Clowney was last season. Scourton and Umanmielen have upside, but are just rookies, while Patrick Jones has finished below 60 on PFF in three of four seasons in the league since being drafted in the 3rd round in 2021, while totaling just 12 sacks, 14 hits, and a 7.7% pressure rate in 57 career games. The Panthers also should get a healthier season out of DJ Wonnum, who missed nine games last season, but he’s an underwhelming player as well, with PFF grades below 60 in four of five seasons in the league and 27 sacks, 25 hits, and a 8.5% pressure rate in 70 career games. DJ Johnson could also be in the mix for a role, but the 2023 3rd round pick has received PFF grades of 50.4 and 54.2 across snap counts of 231 and 392 in two seasons in the league. This looks like a very underwhelming position group after the release of Clowney.

Grade: C

Linebackers

Things aren’t much better at the linebacker position for the Panthers. The Panthers signed Josey Jewell to a 3-year, 18.75 million dollar deal last off-season to replace talented free agent departure Frankie Luvu, but he was a disappointment, finishing with a 56.5 PFF grade across 796 snaps in 12 games. That was the first season of his 7-year career where he finished below 60, so he could bounce back in 2025, but he also is going into his age 31 season, so it’s very possible his best days are behind him and that he will continue struggling.

The rest of this linebacking corps isn’t any better. Trevin Wallace finished second among the Panthers’ linebackers with 582 snaps played last season, but the 2024 3rd round pick struggled as a rookie with a 56.0 PFF grade. He could be better in his second season in the league, but that’s not a guarantee. The Panthers signed Christian Rozeboom to a 1-year, 2.5 million dollar deal in free agency and he will compete for a role, but the 2020 undrafted free agent has struggled in the two seasons in his career in which he has played significant snaps, with PFF grades of 49.0 and 59.0 across snap counts of 552 and 828 in 2023 and 2024 respectively. This is likely to be a below average linebacking corps again in 2025.

Grade: C

Secondary

The best free agent addition the Panthers made on defense this off-season is safety Tre’Von Moehrig. A 2nd round pick in 2021, Moehrig has started 64 of the 66 games he has played in that time and he has mostly been an above average starter, with PFF grades of 72.5, 54.1, 70.2, and 67.5 in four seasons in the league. Still only in his age 26 season, Moehrig should continue playing at a similar level and could potentially even have further untapped upside.

The rest of the Panthers’ safeties are a concern though. Four Panthers safeties played more than 300 snaps last season and three of them struggled, with Xavier Woods (1,216 snaps), Jordan Fuller (574 snaps), and Nick Scott (324 snaps) finishing with PFF grades of 57.0, 53.8, and 52.6. The only Panthers safety who finished above 60 on PFF last season was Demani Richardson, but he still had an underwhelming 60.1 PFF grade and he is a 2024 undrafted free agent who played 403 snaps, so he’s no guarantee to develop into even a capable starter long-term. 

Richardson may end up as a starter in 2025 though due to the lack of a better option. Nick Scott remains on the team, while Woods and Fuller are gone, but Scott has received PFF grades of 47.5, 54.2, 44.0, and 52.6 across an average of 573 snaps per season over the past four seasons and now heads into his age 30 season. The Panthers did use a fourth round pick on Lathan Ransom, but, even if he manages to become a starter as a rookie, it’s unlikely he would play well. 

Things are better at cornerback for the Panthers, though largely by default. Jaycee Horn was decent with a 65.4 PFF grade across 1,034 snaps last season and that was actually a career worst grade for him in four seasons since going 8th overall in 2021, as he finished with PFF grades of 67.8, 71.4, and 84.1 in 2021, 2022, and 2023 respectively, though it also was the first time he stayed relatively healthy, missing just two games after missing 28 total in his first three seasons in the league. Horn is still only going into his age 25 season, so he may have further untapped upside and could eventually put it all together across a healthy season, but he has yet to do that.

Horn will continue starting opposite Mike Jackson, who had a 67.2 PFF grade across 17 starts in 2024. It was the best full season as a starter of his career, but he also had a 60.2 PFF grade across 17 starts in 2022 and flashed a lot of potential with a 77.0 PFF grade across 474 snaps in 2023. Still only in his age 28 season, he should remain a solid starter again in 2025. However, the Panthers’ depth behind Horn and Jackson is very questionable.

The only other cornerback who played more than 100 snaps for the Panthers at cornerback last season who is still on the roster is Chau Smith-Wade, a 2024 5th round pick who struggled with a 51.6 PFF grade across 301 snaps. He is probably the favorite for the #3 cornerback job, with the Panthers making no significant cornerback additions this off-season. Their other best option is Akayleb Evans, a 2022 4th round pick who only played 29 snaps last season, after struggling with a 54.9 PFF grade across 855 snaps in the only significant action of his career in 2023. The rest of the cornerback depth chart consists of former undrafted free agents with little to no NFL experience. The Panthers’ secondary isn’t quite as bad as some other units on this defense, but this is still a unit of concern.

Grade: B-

Kicker

The Panthers’ kicking game was also an issue in 2024, as Eddy Pineiro finished with 2.98 points below average. The Panthers moved on from Pineiro this off-season, replacing him with journeyman Matthew Wright and undrafted rookie Ryan Fitzgerald. Wright is the favorite for the job. He has kicked for six teams in six seasons in the league and has actually accumulated 3.02 points above average over that stretch, with 2.82 points of that coming last season. It remains to be seen if he can be above average for a full season, but he at least has upside.

Grade: B

Conclusion

The Panthers’ offense improved significantly down the stretch last season, with Bryce Young seeming to turn a corner in his development, and there is a good chance that continues into 2025. Their defense should be better by default, in large part due to the fact that they figure to be healthier, after having the third most adjusted games lost to injury on defense of any team in the league last season, including the absence of their best player Derrick Brown for all but one game. However, their defense still lacks talent in a significant way, which makes it highly unlikely this team will be able to compete for a playoff spot unless their offense can take things to a completely different level in Bryce Young’s third season in the league. It’s possible, but it seems much more likely that other teams will end up in the post-season in the NFC.

Prediction: 3-14, 3rd in NFC South

Quarterback

Last off-season, the Panthers made an aggressive trade up from the 9th pick to the 1st pick in the draft to select quarterback Bryce Young. In the previous five seasons, the Panthers finished between 5 wins and 7 wins every season, while starting eight different quarterbacks, so they clearly needed a new direction at the position, but the Panthers paid a steep price to move up, giving away the 9th pick, the 61st pick, their 2024 1st round pick, their 2025 2nd round pick, and talented wide receiver DJ Moore.

Unfortunately, that decision backfired for the Panthers. Their offense missed DJ Moore in a big way and Bryce Young, with little help around him, struggled mightily as a rookie, completing just 59.8% of his passes for an average of 5.46 YPA, 11 touchdowns, and 10 interceptions on an offense that ranked last in yards per play and 29th in first down rate. The Panthers’ defense wasn’t bad, but their offensive struggles still led to the team finishing with the worst record in the league at 2-15, which meant that the first round pick the Panthers surrendered to the Bears ended up being 1st overall, allowing the Bears to select Caleb Williams, a much better quarterback prospect than Young.

That left the Panthers in the position of being the worst team in the league and not having the #1 pick to fix the situation. Instead, the Panthers spent significantly in free agency trying to improve their roster around Young, to hopefully get much better play out of Young in year two and beyond. In terms of average annual value of their roster, the Panthers shot up from 28th in 2023 to 11th in 2024 after their off-season spending spree. That normally correlates heavily with winning percentage, but the Panthers overpaid a lot of their free agents in a desperate attempt to improve their roster.

That being said, Young and this offense should be better in year two, if only by default. Much of the problem with the Panthers’ offense a year ago was not his fault and, if only by default, they are better around him on offense this season. Young also has a good chance to be better himself. He’ll continue being backed up by veteran Andy Dalton, who has a career 87.6 QB rating in 163 starts in 13 seasons in the league, including a 88.4 QB rating across 58 pass attempts when Young missed time with injury in 2023, but he’s now going into his age 37 season and is nothing more than a solid backup at this stage of his career, so Young figures to keep his job all season even if he continues struggling. The Panthers still have a long way to go to be competitive for a playoff spot, even in the weaker NFC, but they probably won’t be as bad as a year ago. 

Grade: C+

Offensive Line

The Panthers spent big at the guard position this off-season, signing ex-Dolphin Robert Hunt to a 5-year, 100 million dollar deal and ex-Seahawk Damien Lewis to a 4-year, 53 million dollar deal. Help at the guard position was much needed, as the Panthers somehow had nine different players start at the two guard spots in 2023 and all of them finished with PFF grades below 60, with all but four of them finishing with grades below 50. Hunt should be a big upgrade, having finished above 60 in all four seasons in the league since going in the 2nd round in 2020 (55 starts), including PFF grades of 73.7 and 77.1 over the past two seasons respectively. He’s a little overpaid as the 3rd highest paid guard in the league in terms of average annual salary, but he should be a big boost for this offensive line. 

Damien Lewis is not nearly as good of a player and was a bigger overpay. He did have PFF grades of 70.2 and 71.8 in 2020 and 2022 respectively, but he was inconsistent with PFF grades of 57.1 and 59.6 in 2021 and 2023 respectively. The 2020 3rd round pick could still be a solid starter if he bounces back and it wouldn’t be hard for him to be an upgrade over what the Panthers had at the position a year ago, but the Panthers paid a lot more than they needed to for a player with as inconsistent of a resume as him.

The Panthers didn’t bring back center Bradley Bozeman as a free agent and had a decent 62.2 PFF grade in 17 starts last season, but they have Austin Corbett as a replacement. Corbett was one of the guards who struggled last season, with a 47.9 PFF grade in 257 snaps (4 starts), but he was coming off of a torn ACL that he suffered at the end of the 2022 season and he has a lot of bounce back potential in 2024 if he’s past his injury. From 2020-2022, Corbett made 50 starts and received PFF grades of 70.9, 68.8, and 69.1 and he’s only in his age 29 season. He has more experience at guard than center, but can play both positions and is needed more at center than guard with Hunt and Lewis being added this off-season.

Four other players who made starts at guard last season are still on the roster and will compete for depth options. Chandler Zavala was a 4th round pick in 2023, but he had a 26.2 PFF grade on 374 snaps as a rookie and has a long way to go to even be a decent backup. Nash Jensen was an undrafted rookie who had a 34.7 PFF grade on 302 snaps and he’s also unlikely to even be a decent backup this season. Cade Mays, a 2022 6th round pick, was better with a 58.3 PFF grade on a career high 434 snaps and could be a decent backup, while Brady Christensen probably has the most upside of the bunch. 

Christensen only played one game in 2023 due to injury, going down for the season with a season ending injury after week 1, but he was a 3rd round pick in 2021 and wasn’t horrible in his first two seasons in the league with PFF grades of 61.6 and 57.3 on snap counts of 480 and 965 respectively. He’s only ever played tackle and guard, but could probably play center too if needed, so he’s a solid, versatile reserve option. 

The Panthers also signed Yosh Nijman to a 2-year, 8 million dollar deal this off-season and he has grades of 60.5, 63.2, 63.1, and 61.7 over the past four seasons, while making 22 starts as the Packers’ swing tackle. Tackle is actually a position of strength for the Panthers, as starters Ikem Ekwonu and Taylor Moton are both above average, so Nijman will remain a swing tackle, giving the Panthers above average depth at that position. He and Christensen will probably be the Panthers’ top reserves, giving them good depth upfront.

Taylor Moton was the Panthers’ best offensive lineman in 2023, with a 74.6 PFF grade in 17 starts. He’s been an above average starter for years, with PFF grades of 76.6, 76.2, 81.6, 77.5, and 69.3 in the five seasons prior to last season, while making all 99 possible starts in the past six seasons combined. He’s now in his age 30 season and could decline a little bit in 2024, but that’s not a guarantee and, even if he does decline, there’s a good chance he remains an above average starter, given that he’s starting from such a high base point. 

Ikem Ekwonu, meanwhile, was the 6th pick in the 2022 NFL Draft, has PFF grades of 65.3 and 67.4 in the past two seasons, and could have his best season yet in 2024, given his sky high upside and the fact that he’s still only in his age 24 season. The Panthers overpaid for Robert Hunt and Damien Lewis, but adding those two at guard and likely getting a healthier year out of Austin Corbett should make this offensive line much better than a year ago, when it was a big weakness, particularly on the interior.

Grade: B+

Receiving Corps

The Panthers’ receiving corps was a big problem last season as well. Adam Thielen surpassed 1000 yards receiving with a 103/1014/4 slash line, but he wasn’t that efficient, averaging just 1.59 yards per route run and 7.40 yards per target. Thielen was a better receiver in his prime, averaging 1.98 yards per route run from 2016-2021 with a 88/1124/9 slash line per 17 games, but he’s on the decline and he’s now going into his age 34 season, so he could easily continue declining further.

The rest of this receiving corps was even worse in 2023, with DJ Chark totaling a 35/525/5 slash line with 1.08 yards per route run, Jonathan Mingo totaling a 43/418/0 slash line with 0.78 yards per route run, and no other players surpassing 250 yards receiving. Quarterback play was part of the problem, but the receiving corps also needed significant upgrades this off-season, especially when you consider Adam Thielen’s age. To try to improve this group, the Panthers traded back up into the first round for Xavier Legette and traded for veteran Diontae Johnson from the Pittsburgh Steelers, taking on the remaining 1 year and 10 million left on his contract.

Legette should have a big role right away, likely as a starter, but he enters the league pretty raw, albeit with a huge upside. Diontae Johnson, meanwhile, is a solid wide receiver, but not a true #1 receiver, averaging 1.72 yards per route run, 6.83 yards per target, and 873 yards per season in five seasons in the league, since being drafted in the 3rd round in 2019. They should both play in three wide receiver sets with Thielen, a trio that is unspectacular, but significantly better than what they had a year ago.

DJ Chark is no longer with the team, while Jonathan Mingo will now likely be the #4 receiver. He was a 2nd round pick in 2023 and has the upside to be significantly better in year two, so he’s not bad depth to have, but it’s possible he would continue struggling if forced back into a bigger role by injury and/or underperformance ahead of him on the depth chart. Terrance Marshall is also a recent 2nd round pick, but he has averaged just 0.94 yards per route run in three seasons in the league and couldn’t earn a significant role even in a thin receiving corps a year ago (334 snaps), so he’s nothing more than depth.

The Panthers gave playing time to four tight ends last season, Tommy Tremble (556 snaps), Hayden Hurst (318 snaps), Ian Thomas (218 snaps), and Stephen Sullivan (171 snaps), but they all struggled, with slash lines of 23/194/3, 18/184/1, 5/56/0, and 12/125/0 respectively on yards per route run averages of 0.78, 0.82, 0.73, and 0.98 respectively. All but Hurst remain and the only addition the Panthers made to this group this off-season was 4th round pick Ja’Tavion Sanders, so they should continue getting very little out of this group.

Tremble was a 3rd round pick in 2021, but has averaged just 0.71 yards per route run with 62 catches in 49 career games. Thomas is a 6-year veteran, but has finished below 60 on PFF in all six seasons, while averaging just 0.69 yards per route run. Stephen Sullivan is a 2020 7th round pick with 14 career catches. Unless the rookie Sanders surprises in a big way year one, I wouldn’t expect any of these players to contribute in any sort of significant way. This receiving corps should be better this year than a year ago, with the additions of Xavier Legette and Diontae Johnson, but this group still has their problems and, overall, is underwhelming.

Grade: C+

Running Backs

Last off-season, the Panthers gave a 4-year, 25.4 million dollar contract to former Eagles running back Miles Sanders, a contract that currently makes him the 12th highest paid running back in the league in average annual salary. Sanders, a 2nd round pick in 2019, averaged 5.02 YPC on 739 carries in four seasons with the Eagles, but struggled mightily after going from a great offensive line on a talented offense in Philadelphia to a poor offensive line on a talentless offense in Carolina, dropping to just 3.34 YPC as a result.

Sanders struggled so much that lost his starting job to expected backup Chuba Hubbard, who ended up out-carrying him 238 to 129 on the season. Hubbard only had a 3.79 YPC average and has just a 3.92 YPC average on 505 carries in three seasons in the league since being selected in the 4th round in the 2021 NFL draft, but he was still significantly more effective than Sanders was and his underwhelming YPC average can largely be attributed to the issues around him on this offense. 

Sanders remains on the roster because of a guaranteed 6.22 million dollar salary, but Hubbard should remain above him on the depth chart and Sanders will also likely be surpassed on the depth chart by Jonathon Brooks, who the Panthers selected in the 2nd round of this year’s draft. 

Running back was a relatively minor need for the Panthers this off-season, but Brooks likely would have been a first round pick if not for a torn ACL suffered late in his final collegiate season and clearly the Panthers are comfortable with his recovery from that injury. He’ll probably be eased into action early in the season, but I would expect him to at least split carries with Hubbard by season’s end and it’s entirely possible he ends up as the lead back and the team leader in carries, even as a rookie being eased into action after injury.

Hubbard was actually 4th on this team in receiving yardage last season, but that’s not as impressive as it sounds, as he had just a 39/233/0 slash line with a 0.79 yards per route run average. Overall, his yards per route run average in his career is 0.99, making him a better pass catching option than Sanders, who has averaged just 0.85, including a 0.73 yards per route in 2023, when he finished with a 27/154/0 slash line. Hubbard will likely continue playing more passing down snaps than Sanders, but the rookie Brooks has the most passing down upside of any of their backs, after catching 25 passes for 286 yards in just 11 games in his final collegiate season. The Panthers have some options in the backfield, but this will likely remain an underwhelming group unless they get a big rookie year out of Jonathon Brooks, who is coming off a significant injury.

Grade: B

Edge Defenders

The Panthers spent a lot of money trying to build up their offensive supporting cast this off-season, but they traded away one of their best defensive player Brian Burns, receiving a second round pick for the talented edge defender, who the Giants gave a 5-year, 141 million dollar extension upon acquiring him, making him the third highest paid edge defender in the league in terms of average annual salary. 

The trade made some sense, as the Panthers are not close to competing even with Burns and needed to replenish draft capital after their trade up with the Bears for Bryce Young last off-season, but Burns is only going into his age 26 season and was the kind of player the Panthers should have built around, rather than using the money they saved by not paying him to overpay other team’s free agents. Burns finished the 2023 season with an overall 73.8 PFF grade and 8 sacks, 11 hits, and a 10.6% pressure rate and totaled 46 sacks, 56 hits, and a 11.8% pressure rate in 80 games in five seasons with the Panthers, who selected him in the first round in the 2019 NFL Draft.

The Panthers also did not bring back Yetur Gross-Matos, who had a decent 65.4 PFF grade across 465 snaps as the other starting edge defender last season, nor did they bring back Justin Houston or Marquis Haynes, who both were decent in smaller roles, with PFF grades of 61.2 and 71.9 respectively on snap counts of 177 and 142 respectively. In what is a completely revamped position group, the Panthers added free agents Jadeveon Clowney, DJ Wonnum, and K’Lavon Chaisson on deals worth 20 million over 2 years, 12.5 million over 2 years, and 2.5 million over 1 year respectively. 

Clowney is the best of the bunch, playing the run well and getting to the quarterback at an impressive rate, exceeding 60 on PFF in overall grade in every season except his rookie season in 2024 and exceeding 70 in all but one of the past nine seasons, including a 85.7 PFF grade in 653 snaps last season. In total, he has 52.5 sacks, 80 hits, and a 11.3% pressure rate in 122 games over those past nine seasons, including 9.5 sacks, 10 hits, and a 14.7% pressure rate in 2023. 

However, Clowney is now going into his age 31 season and he’s always had durability problems, missing 37 games in 10 seasons in the league, while making it through the season without missing time just twice. He could start to decline this season and, even if he doesn’t, he’ll likely miss some time with injury and he also doesn’t really fit the rebuilding Panthers’ timeline to compete, so he was a bit of an odd signing, even if his presence does make the team better.

Wonnum and Chaisson, meanwhile, are both underwhelming players. Wonnum has developed into a decent run stopper, but he’s never been much of a pass rusher, with 23 sacks, 23 hits, and a 8.1% pressure rate in 62 games in four seasons in the league since being drafted in the 4th round in 2020, while finishing below 60 in pass rush grade on PFF in all four of those seasons. Chaisson, meanwhile, has finished below 60 overall on PFF in all four seasons in the league, while playing just 336 snaps per season. He is only still in the league because he was a first round pick in 2020 and is still only in his age 25 season. He might still have significant untapped upside and could theoretically take a step forward with his new team, but time is running out for him to develop into even a capable rotational player.

The Panthers’ top returning edge defenders from a year ago are DJ Johnson and Amare Barno, who played just 231 snaps and 189 snaps respectively. Johnson struggled in limited action last season, but he was a 3rd round pick in 2023 and could easily take a step forward in his second season in the league. I would expect him to see an expanded role in a revamped position group in 2024. Barno, meanwhile, was a 2022 6th round pick and has only played 240 nondescript snaps in two seasons in the league. He’ll likely be on the outside looking in for a role in 2024, barring injuries ahead of him on the depth chart, and he’s not a lock for the final roster. This is an underwhelming group outside of the veteran Jadeveon Clowney, whose age and injury history are both significant concerns.

Grade: B-

Interior Defenders

The Panthers did keep one talented defensive lineman, locking up 2020 1st round pick Derrick Brown on a 4-year, 96 million dollar extension ahead of what would have been the final year of his rookie deal. Brown is now the 4th highest paid interior defender in the league in terms of average annual salary and he only has 8 sacks in 66 career games, but he has added 37 hits and a 7.5% pressure rate, while excelling against the run, particularly over the past two seasons, when he has had overall PFF grades of 84.4 and 90.1 on snap counts of 870 and 938 respectively. Still only in his age 26 season, he should continue being one of the better interior defenders in the league for years to come and he could possibly even have further untapped upside.

The rest of the Panthers’ interior defender options are all also better against the run than they are as pass rushers, so this group doesn’t complement each other well. Shy Tuttle was second at the position in snaps played in 2023 with 547 and he has just a 3.5% pressure rate in his career, which fell to just 0.9% last season. He’s also only played 452 snaps per season in five seasons in the league, with a max of 557. The 2019 undrafted free agent is a solid run stuffer, but nothing more.

DeShawn Williams was a situational pass rusher for the Panthers last season and, while he only had a 7.5% pressure rate, he’ll still be missed in that aspect because the Panthers don’t have another situational pass rush option. Instead, Williams was replaced by A’Shawn Robinson, who has finished above 60 in run defense grade on PFF in six of seven seasons in the league, but only has a 5.2% pressure rate in his career, including 3.6% last season with the Giants. Signing him to a 3-year, 22.5 million dollar deal this off-season, the Panthers probably overpaid for a mostly redundant run stuffer.

Deep reserves Nick Thurman and LaBryan Ray are also better against the run than they are as pass rushers, but they aren’t particularly good run defenders either. Thurman, a 2018 undrafted free agent, has only played 505 snaps in his career, 368 of which came last season. He had a solid 65.4 PFF grade against the run last season, but had just a 2.3% pressure rate, and has a pressure rate of just 3.3% in his career. Ray, meanwhile, is a 2022 undrafted free agent who played the first 356 snaps of his career last season, finishing with a 54.6 PFF grade and a 2.2% pressure rate. 

Both Thurman and/or Ray will probably have to play at least somewhat of a role again in 2024, with the Panthers only other deep reserve option being 6th round rookie Jaden Crumedy, who would also probably struggle. Derrick Brown is one of the best interior defenders in the league and Shy Tuttle and A’Shawn Robinson are good run defenders, but the Panthers lack depth in this position group, particularly when it comes to interior pass rushers.

Grade: B

Linebackers

Another key defensive player the Panthers didn’t bring back this off-season is linebacker Frankie Luvu. Luvu had a 80.0 PFF grade across 989 snaps in 2023, but the Panthers opted not to try to match or exceed the 3-year, 31 million dollar deal he signed with the Commanders this off-season and instead signed Josey Jewell from the Broncos on a 3-year, 18.75 million dollar deal. Jewell is a solid player who has PFF grades of 68.1, 71.7, 67.2 on an average of 877 snaps per season in his last three healthy seasons, but he’ll still probably be a downgrade from Luvu.

Fortunately, the Panthers do get Shaq Thompson back, after his 2023 season was ended by injury in week 2. Prior to last season, Thompson had missed just 13 games in 8 seasons in the league and finished above 60 on PFF in all but one of those eight seasons, with four seasons above 70, including PFF grades of 72.7 and 72.3 on snap counts of 796 and 1,089 in 2021 and 2022 respectively. Thompson is now in his age 30 season and coming off of a serious injury, so he could decline a little bit, but it wouldn’t be a surprise to see him remain a solid every down player.

The Panthers also added Trevin Wallace in the third round of the draft to give themselves additional linebacker depth. They downgraded by going from Frankie Luvu to Josey Jewell, but it wouldn’t be hard for Thompson and Wallace to be better than Deion Jones and Kamu Grugier-Hill were as their top linebackers behind Luvu last season, when they had PFF grades of 66.3 and 48.6 respectively. This group doesn’t have the top level talent in Luvu that they had a year ago, but they should make up for that somewhat by being a deeper group.

Grade: B

Cornerback

Along with getting Shaq Thompson back from injury, the Panthers could also get a healthier season out of top cornerback Jaycee Horn, who had an impressive 84.1 PFF grade in 2023, but was limited to just 275 snaps in 6 games by injury. A first round pick in 2021, Horn has always had a huge upside and he had impressive grades of 67.8 and 71.4 in his first two seasons in the league as well, but injuries have consistently plagued him, limiting him to 142 snaps in 3 games as a rookie and 812 snaps in 13 games in his second season in the league in 2022, meaning he’s played in just 22 of a possible 51 games in three seasons in the league. 

Horn is still only going into his age 24 season and the Panthers picked up his 5th year option for 2025 because of the upside he’s shown when healthy, but his impressive play has come in a pretty limited sample size thus far in his career and there’s a good chance he misses more time with injury in 2024 and beyond. He has a high ceiling and could put it all together in his 4th season in the league in 2024 if he can finally stay healthy, but he comes with a low floor as well.

The Panthers will need Horn to stay healthy because the rest of this position group is pretty thin. The Panthers didn’t bring back Donte Jackson (902 snaps) and CJ Henderson (407 snaps), who played significant roles a year ago. Henderson had just a 45.4 PFF grade, but Jackson was decent with a 64.3 PFF grade and the Panthers didn’t do much to replace them, only signing ex-Bill Dane Jackson to a 2-year, 8 million dollar deal in free agency. Jackson, a 2020 7th round pick, only started 28 of the 52 games he played in four seasons in Buffalo and had mostly mediocre grades from PFF, finishing in the 50s or 60s in all four seasons, but the Panthers don’t have a choice but to make him an every down starter.

The Panthers do bring back veteran Troy Hill, who had a decent 61.3 PFF grade on 493 snaps in 2023, and he’ll probably have to be their 3rd cornerback by default, but he’s now going into his age 33 season and has started just 58 of the 113 games he’s played in nine seasons in the league, while posting middling PFF grades in the 60s in the past three seasons, on snap counts of 533, 703, and 493 respectively, a noticeable drop off from his prime. Given his age, he could decline further in 2024 and be a liability, especially in an expanded role. 

Behind the top-3 of Horn, Jackson, and Hill, the Panthers’ best options are 5th round rookie Chau Smith-Wade, who would likely struggle in a significant rookie year role, 2023 undrafted free agent D’Shawn Jamison, who struggled with a 47.2 PFF grade on 107 snaps as a rookie, and Dicaprio Bootle, a 2021 undrafted free agent who has played just 221 nondescript snaps in three seasons in the league. Depth is a big issue for the Panthers at cornerback, one that will be an even bigger issue if Horn suffers another significant injury. Horn’s upside if he stays healthy and puts it all together is the only positive thing this cornerback group has going for it.

The Panthers could try to mask some of their lack of depth at cornerback by using three safeties together frequently in sub packages, but their safety depth is only better than their cornerback depth by default. The starting duo of Jordan Fuller and Xavier Woods is at least solid though, with Fuller coming over from the Rams this off-season on a 1-year, 3.25 million dollar deal and Woods in the final year of a 3-year, 15 million dollar deal that he signed as a free agent two off-seasons ago. 

Fuller, a 2020 6th round pick, received PFF grades of 63.6, 74.3, and 66.7 in 2020, 2021, and 2023 respectively, while starting all 45 games he played in those three seasons, with a lost season due to injury in 2022 in between. Still only in his age 26 season, I would expect him to continue being a solid starter and he has a good chance to be an upgrade, even if only slightly, on the player he is replacing, Vonn Bell, who had a 63.9 PFF grade across 777 snaps in 2023.

Woods, meanwhile, is coming off of a career best 80.3 PFF grade in 14 starts (3 games missed due to injury). He’s a one-year wonder in terms of playing at that level, but he’s not a complete one-year wonder, receiving PFF grades above 60 in all seven seasons in the league (94 starts in 106 games), including four seasons above 70. Still in his late prime in his age 29 season, I wouldn’t expect Woods to repeat his career best 2023 campaign, but he should remain at least a solid starter. Depth is the issue at the safety position. The Panthers signed veteran Nick Scott in free agency and he’s started 27 of the 50 games he’s played in the past three seasons, but he’s also finished below 60 on PFF in all three of those seasons, with grades of 47.5, 54.2, and 44.0 respectively. 

Even with his experience, Scott won’t be guaranteed the top backup spot and will have to compete with 2023 5th round pick Jammie Robinson, who played 64 nondescript snaps as a rookie, and Sam Franklin, who has been a backup safety for the Panthers for the past four seasons, with mostly mediocre play across 781 snaps. Scott is probably the favorite for the #3 safety job and all three of their backup options would probably struggle if forced into significant action. The Panthers have a solid safety duo and a high upside #1 cornerback Jaycee Horn, but Horn comes with a lot of downside as well and the Panthers’ depth at both cornerback and safety is very suspect.

Grade: B

Conclusion

On offense, the Panthers improved their supporting cast and should get better play out of quarterback Bryce Young. On defense, they lost a pair of key players in Brian Burns and Frankie Luvu, but they replaced them with Jadeveon Clowney and Josey Jewell, who aren’t huge downgrades, and they could get healthier years out of both Jaycee Horn and Shaq Thompson, who are key contributors when healthy. However, this team was the worst in the league by a pretty wide margin a year ago and needed to improve significantly to even be respectable. They’ll be more competitive than a year ago, but it’s hard to see this team qualifying for the post-season, even in the weaker NFC.

Prediction: 5-12, 4th in NFC South

Quarterback

The Cam Newton era in Carolina was relatively successful, but it came to a premature end when Newton suffered multiple injuries during the 2018 and 2019 seasons and the Panthers have struggled as much as any team in the league at the quarterback position since then. Newton was first replaced by backup Kyle Allen, who struggled for most of his tenure as the starter in Newton’s absence in 2019. 

Allen was then replaced in the off-season by veteran journeyman Teddy Bridgewater, who the Panthers gave a 3-year, 63 million dollar contract to, which ended in Bridgewater being paid 31 million for 15 mediocre starts and then getting traded to the Broncos the following off-season for minimal compensation. The Panthers then sent a 2nd round pick to the Jets for former #3 overall pick Sam Darnold for the 2021 season, but he proved to be a bust in a season in which the Panthers got so desperate at the quarterback position that they brought back a broken down Cam Newton for a second stint when Darnold got hurt, which did not go well.

Darnold returned for 2022 and the Panthers added former #1 overall pick Baker Mayfield via trade and Matt Corral via the third round of the draft, but Darnold and Corral got injured in the preseason and Mayfield struggled mightily, leading to him being benched for PJ Walker, who wasn’t much better. Darnold eventually returned for the final six games of the season and wasn’t bad, with a 92.6 QB rating, but all in all, Panthers quarterbacks completed just 58.6% of their passes for an average of 7.10 YPA, 16 touchdowns, and 13 interceptions on the year, good for a 80.2 QB rating, 6th worst in the NFL.

The Panthers could have brought Darnold back as a free agent and given him another shot based on the progress he showed down the stretch last season, but they opted to start over at the quarterback position this off-season and invested significant resources to do so, trading all the way up to the #1 pick in the draft to select Alabama quarterback Bryce Young, surrendering the 9th pick, 61st pick, first and second round picks next year, and top receiver DJ Moore.

Young has the upside to be worth that price if he can develop into a long-term franchise quarterback and, while he will likely have growing pains as a rookie even if he does develop into a long-term franchise quarterback, he still figures to be an immediate upgrade for one of the worst quarterbacked teams in the league over the past few years. The Panthers also brought in veteran Andy Dalton in free agency this off-season, to give them a stopgap option in case Young isn’t ready, leaving Matt Corral as the third quarterback and potential trade bait or cut candidate, after a lost rookie year due to injury.

Dalton has made 162 starts in 12 seasons in the league, with a 87.6 QB rating, including 95.2 in 14 starts last season, and he would be one of the best backup quarterbacks in the league, but it seems likely that Young will beat him out for the starting job even as a rookie. Dalton is going into his age 36 season, so his best days are probably behind him, but if he had to play in place of an injured Bryce Young, the Panthers might not see a significant drop off at the position. This is a much improved quarterback room with the potential to be a lot more if Young can live up to the hype in year one.

Grade: B-

Receiving Corps

DJ Moore was a big loss in the trade for the #1 pick, as he led the team by a wide margin with a 63/888/7 slash line last season, while receiving a 73.9 PFF grade. To replace him, the Panthers added veterans Adam Thielen (3 years, 25 million) and DJ Chark (1 year, 5 million) in free agency and used their second round pick on Mississippi’s Jonathan Mingo. None of the players are likely to be as good as Moore would have been, but they do give the Panthers a lot more depth than a year ago, when the only other receiver with more than 300 receiving yards was Terrace Marshall, who was second on the team with a 28/49/1 slash line last season. Marshall, their top holdover, will compete for playing time and targets in this receiving corps with the veterans Thielen and Chark and the rookie Mingo.

Thielen’s salary suggests the Panthers view him as their top receiver and there was a time when he was a legitimate #1 receiver and one of the top wide receivers in the league, with slash lines of 91/1276/4 and 113/1373/9 in 2017 and 2018 respectively, but he hasn’t topped 1000 yards in a season since and now heads into his age 33 season, coming off of a 2022 season in which he averaged just 1.06 yards per route run. He’s at the age where wide receivers tend to decline quickly, so it would surprise me if he was able to bounce back in any sort of significant way in 2023, so he figures to be a little bit of a disappointment based on his salary.

Chark also is several seasons removed from a 1000 yard season, posting a 73/1008/8 slash line back in 2019, but for him the biggest reason why has been injuries, as he’s missed at least three games in each of the three seasons since then, with 22 games missed in total over those three seasons combined. Chark is still only going into his age 27 season and his 1.47 yards per route run average over the past three seasons isn’t much of a drop off from the 1.69 yards per route run he averaged in his 1000 yard season, so he should be the more effective of their two free agent wide receiver additions, despite his lower salary. Chark could miss more time with injury and Thielen still could lead the team in targets, but Chark should be at least the 1b wide receiver to Thielen’s 1A and I would expect him to be the more efficient and effective option of the two.

Mingo could also see significant action in his first season with the team, but Chark and Thielen are likely locked into roles in the Panthers top-3 wide receivers and Mingo will face competition from Terrace Marshall for the last spot, so Mingo could spend most of his rookie season as a reserve. If he sees significant action, he has the talent to make an impact in year one, but he will likely have at least some growing pains in his first NFL action. 

Marshall was also a second round pick and he struggled mightily as a rookie in 2021, averaging just 0.50 yards per route run, leading to him spending the start of his second season in the league on the bench, but he earned a bigger role down the stretch and had a 22/429/1 slash line in his final 10 games (37/729/2 extrapolated over 17 games), with a 1.50 yards per route run average on the season, and, now going into his third season in the league, it wouldn’t be a surprise at all if he continued improving and held off the rookie Mingo for a significant role in this offense.

The four aforementioned wide receivers figure to play most of the snaps barring injury, but the Panthers also have Laviska Shenault, who is a valuable reserve and situational player. Shenault was a second round pick by the Jaguars in 2020 and averaged 1.55 yards per route run and 1.36 yards per route run on slash lines of 58/600/5 and 63/619/0 respectively in his first two seasons in the league, decent production considering how dysfunction the Jaguars’ offense was overall in those two seasons, but Shenault was still replaced in Jacksonville and sent to the Panthers for a swap of late round picks last off-season. 

Shenault didn’t play much in his first season in Carolina, playing 206 snaps total, and was mostly used in the screen game, with an average depth of target of -0.8 yards (down from 6.1 in his first two seasons in the league), but he played his role well, providing instant offense when he did play, averaging a very impressive 2.89 yards per route run and taking 32 targets for a 27/272/1 slash line, with 12.4 yards per catch average the catch. He also added 65 yards on 9 carries on the ground. He’ll remain a situational player in this offense in 2023, but he should be an effective one and, if forced into a bigger role by injury, he could still have some further untapped potential in a larger role, still only going into his age 25 season.

The Panthers also didn’t get much out of their tight ends in 2022, with none of their tight ends surpassing 200 yards receiving. The Panthers attempted to remedy the problem by signing ex-Bengal Hayden Hurst to a 3-year, 21.75 million dollar deal in free agency, but, while he should be an upgrade, it could mostly be by default and Hurst could easily prove to be an overpay. Hurst flashed potential early in his career, with a 1.57 yards per route run average in his first two seasons in the league, but that came as a part-time player and, since becoming a starter, he has averaged just 1.06 yards per route run over the past three seasons. He’s also finished below average on PFF in run blocking grade in all five seasons in the league, Now going into his age 30 season, Hurst isn’t the promising young tight end he used to be and I wouldn’t expect much different from the past few seasons for him in his new home in Carolina.

Hurst will be backed up by Ian Thomas and Tommy Tremble, who were the Panthers top tight ends last season. They will compete for the #2 tight end job, but are unlikely to have significant roles in this offense. That’s a good thing, because both struggled mightily in significant roles last season. They played 558 snaps and 513 snaps respectively, but averaged just 1.12 yards per route run and 0.71 yards per route run, leading to slash lines of 21/197/0 and 19/174/3 respectively, while also struggling in run blocking. Overall, they were PFF’s two worst ranked eligible tight ends.

Those struggles are nothing new for either of them, as Thomas has averaged just 0.69 yards per route run since entering the league as a 4th round pick in 2018, while Tremble, a 2021 3rd round pick, has averaged 0.68 yards per route run in two seasons in the league. Tremble probably has more theoretical upside because he’s younger and was a relatively high draft pick, but it’s unlikely either player will contribute significantly to this offense. This receiving corps is a lot deeper than a year ago, but they lack a #1 wide receiver, now without DJ Moore.

Grade: B-

Running Backs

Along with trading away DJ Moore this off-season, the Panthers also traded away another key offensive playmaker, feature back Christian McCaffrey, midway through the 2022 season. McCaffrey was still playing at a high level, despite two seasons mostly lost to injury prior to last season, but the 49ers offered a package of picks centered around 2023 2nd, 3rd, and 4th round picks and the Panthers were seemingly out of playoff contention at 1-5, so it made some sense for them to move on from a player whose contract paid him 37 million over the next three and a half seasons, a lot of money for an injury prone running back on a team likely going through a rebuild. Ultimately, it could prove to be the correct decision, in part because accumulating those extra picks from the McCaffrey trade made it easier for them to justify trading away future picks to move up to #1 in the draft.

On top of that, the Panthers’ offense actually improved without McCaffrey, leading to the team winning 6 of their final 11 games to finish at 7-10, within reach of the NFC South title. That’s not to say they were better because he was gone, but they didn’t really miss him that much, especially on the ground, where replacement lead back Dont’a Foreman averaged 4.59 yards per carry on 191 carries in 11 starts in McCaffrey’s absence, as opposed to 4.62 yards per carry on 85 carries in 6 starts for McCaffrey.

Despite Foreman’s success down the stretch last season, the Panthers let him leave as a free agent on just a 1-year, 2 million dollar deal from the Bears, opting instead to shop higher in the running back market, signing Miles Sanders to a 4-year, 25.4 million dollar deal. Foreman fared well last season, but Sanders could easily be an upgrade, after averaging 5.02 YPC on 739 carries in four seasons with the Eagles, who selected him in the second round in 2019. 

Sanders benefited from probably the best run blocking in the league in Philadelphia, which he won’t have in Carolina, but he still played well in his own right, finishing above 70 on PFF in run grade in three straight seasons, including a 82.3 grade in 2022, when he had career highs with 1,269 yards (5th in the NFL) and 11 touchdowns on 259 carries (4.90 YPC). Still only in his age 26 season, Sanders should remain an above average runner in 2023, even if he’s not as efficient without the same blocking he had with the Eagles.

The biggest area where McCaffrey was missed was in the passing game, as he still led all Panthers running backs with a 33/277/1 slash line, despite only playing 6 games, while his 1.79 yards per route run average led all Panthers players with at least 40 targets. Chuba Hubbard wasn’t bad as a passing down option, with 1.55 yards per route run, but he lacked McCaffrey’s dynamic abilities as a playmaker. Hubbard only averaged 0.98 yards per route run as a rookie in 2021, with just 3.56 yards per carry as well, but that jumped to 4.90 yards per carry in 2022 and he was a 4th round pick who entered the league with decent potential, so it’s possible he’s permanently turned the corner and will remain at least a capable change of pace and passing down option. 

Sanders’ contract suggests that Hubbard won’t average the 11.3 touches per game he averaged behind Foreman last season in McCaffrey’s absence, but Sanders has struggled in the passing game in his career (0.88 yards per route run) and the Panthers don’t have another good choice on the roster for a passing down back, with the only other running backs on the roster being former undrafted free agents Raheem Blackshear and Spencer Brown, who have 32 career touches between the two of them, as well as some undrafted rookies. Sanders and Hubbard aren’t a bad running back duo, but their depth is a concern and they aren’t a great duo either.

Grade: B

Offensive Line

The Panthers bring back all five starting offensive linemen from a year ago, with one key caveat. While their starters didn’t miss a game due to injury on the offensive line a year ago, the Panthers already could be without starting right guard Austin Corbett for the start of the season after he suffered a torn ACL in week 18 of last season and, even if he can return for week one, it’s unlikely the Panthers will have the same injury luck as a year ago. That will test their depth, which is led by veteran Cam Erving. 

Erving is versatile, with the ability to play anywhere on the offensive line, and he has 56 career starts in eight seasons in the league, but he’s finished below 60 on PFF in all eight seasons and now heads into his age 31 season, so he would almost definitely struggle if forced into significant action in 2023, a strong likelihood for a player who will be the first man off the bench. The Panthers also added NC State’s Chandler Zavala in the 4th round of the draft, but he too would likely struggle if forced into a significant year one role.

Even if Corbett returns for week one, that’s no guarantee that he’ll be 100%, a significant concern, given that Corbett was PFF’s 18th ranked guard with a 69.1 grade in 17 starts last season. A 2nd round pick by the Browns in 2018, Corbett struggled to develop early in his career and was traded to the Rams after just one start in a season and a half, returning just a 5th round pick to Cleveland in return. However, he broke out with the Rams as a solid starter, with PFF grades of 51.7, 70.9, and 68.8 in 40 starts in two and a half seasons with the team, before the Panthers signed him to a 3-year, 26.25 million dollar deal last off-season. Only in his age 28 season, if he’s healthy he should remain an above average starter, but that’s a big if.

The Panthers’ offensive line was mostly solid last season, but the one weakness was left guard, where Brady Christensen finished with a 57.3 PFF grade, the only Panthers starter to finish below 60. Christensen was a 2nd round pick in 2021 though and he was better as a rookie with a 61.6 PFF grade, albeit in just six starts, and because of that, it wouldn’t be a surprise to see him take a step forward in his third season in the league in 2023, perhaps a big step forward.

While the Panthers didn’t have an offensive lineman miss time due to injury in 2022, that doesn’t mean they had the same five players start all 17 games, as center Pat Elflein was benched after week 7 for Bradley Bozeman. That proved to be a wise decision, as Bozeman was a noticeable upgrade, part of the reason for the Panthers’ offensive improvement down the stretch, and, as a result, the Panthers opted to re-sign him to a 3-year, 18 million dollar deal this off-season, keeping him off the open market. 

With Elflein no longer with the team, Bozeman is locked in as the starter, not a new role for him, as he started 48 of a possible 49 games in his final three seasons with the Ravens before joining the Panthers last off-season, first at guard in 2019 and 2020, where he was decent with 63.4 and 64.3 PFF grades, and then at center in 2021, where he took a step forward with a 73.6 PFF grade. Bozeman fell back down to 63.1 in 2022, but has proven himself as a reliable starter at the very least and he has also shown he has the upside to be more. Center looks like his best spot, but he also provides value with the versatility to kick to guard if needed. He was a smart re-signing on a reasonable contract for a team that needs stability on the offensive line.

Offensive tackle was the strength of this group a year ago and should be again this year, perhaps even more so. Their left tackle is Ikem Ekwonu, who they selected 6th overall in the 2022 NFL Draft. His PFF grade of 65.3 as a rookie is decent, but it doesn’t tell the whole story, as he struggled early in the year, but had a grade of 70.1 from week 4 on, another part of the reason why this offense got better as the season went on. Highly talented, I would expect Ekwonu to at least continue that into his second season in the league and it wouldn’t be a surprise at all if he improved further.

On the other side, right tackle Taylor Moton had a 69.3 PFF grade, but that was actually a down year for him, as he finished with a grade of 76 or higher in four straight seasons prior to last season, while making all 65 possible starts in those four seasons. Moton is still only in his age 29 season, so he has obvious bounce back potential. The Panthers have depth problems on the offensive line and almost definitely won’t be as healthy in this unit as a year ago, especially with the right guard Austin Corbett already rehabbing from a torn ACL suffered in January, but they could easily get better or continued better play from the young players on the left side of this line, Ekwonu and Christensen, they will have a full season of Bradley Bozeman at center, and they should get a better year out of right tackle Taylor Moton, so there are reasons to be optimistic about this group as well.

Grade: B

Edge Defenders

The Panthers’ struggles on offense got a lot of attention last season, with their rotating carousel of quarterbacks, but they weren’t much better on defense, ranking 27th in offensive DVOA and 25th in defensive DVOA. They had some standout players on defense, but a lack of supporting talent and depth cost them significantly. The edge defender position is a perfect example of this. Top edge defender Brian Burns was very productive, playing 951 snaps (3rd in the NFL among edge defenders) and totaling 12.5 sacks, 11 hits, and a 13.0% pressure rate. However, he struggled against the run and their other edge defenders did not get much pass rush, with their #2 and #3 edge defenders Yetur Gross-Matos (847 snaps) and Marquis Haynes (470 snaps) combining for just 7.5 sacks, 17 hits, and a 6.8% pressure rate, while also struggling against the run, leading to PFF grades of 51.2 and 59.3 respectively. 

Burns returns as the top edge defender and, very much in the prime of his career in his age 25 season, he should give the Panthers more of the same. He has consistently struggled against the run throughout his 4-year career since being selected 16th overall in 2019, but he has more than made up for that with 38 sacks, 45 hits, and a 12.1% pressure rate in 64 career games. Unfortunately, the Panthers will probably get more of the same from Haynes and Gross-Matos, who have career pressure rates of 7.7% and 6.6% respectively. 

Gross-Matos went in the 2nd round in 2020 and is only going into his age 25 season, so he theoretically may have some untapped upside, but he’s far from a guarantee to take a step forward in his 4th season in the league in 2023, while Haynes is now heading into his age 30 season and is likely to decline going forward if anything. The Panthers used a 3rd round pick on Oregon’s DJ Johnson and he could have an immediate role as at least a rotational reserve, but he might not have a big impact in his first year in the league, even if he has the upside to be a starter long-term. This is a top heavy position group where Brian Burns elevates the overall grade of the group, even with his consistent struggles against the run.

Grade: C+

Interior Defenders

The Panthers have a similar situation at the interior defender position with Derrick Brown leading the way, after posting a 84.4 PFF grade on 870 snaps on PFF last season, the 8th highest grade among interior defenders on the 6th most snaps. Brown only had one sack, but added 10 quarterback hits and a 7.8% pressure rate, while excelling against the run. Brown was much more middling in his first two seasons in the league in 2020 and 2021, with PFF grades of 61.0 and 64.4 respectively on snap counts of 742 and 631 respectively, but the former 7th overall pick has always had the upside to be one of the better players in the league at his position and it wouldn’t surprise me at all if he continued his high level of play into 2023 and beyond, still only entering his age 25 season.

Brown will be needed more than ever this year, as the Panthers are actually even worse at this position behind Brown than they were last year, losing Matt Ioannidis in free agency, a big loss because he played 640 snaps and received a 66.4 PFF grade, holding up against the run and especially playing well as an interior pass rusher, with a 9.8% pressure rate. The Panthers signed ex-Saint Shy Tuttle to a 3-year, 19.5 million dollar deal in free agency and he should be an upgrade over Ioannidis against the run, finishing 67 or higher in PFF run grade in all four seasons in the league, including three seasons over 70, but he is a big downgrade from Ioannidis as a pass rusher (4.1% career pressure rate) and he has only played an average of 429 snaps per season as mostly a base package player, with a career high of 557 snaps in a season. He should give the Panthers more of the same that he gave the Saints.

The Panthers also brought in veteran Deshawn Williams in free agency to give them a situational sub package interior pass rusher, a role in which he’s served throughout his career, but he’s been pretty underwhelming in that role, with a 6.5% career pressure rate, and now he’s going into his age 31 season, so he’s a mediocre option. The Panthers also still have top reserve holdover Bravvion Roy and he figures continue having a rotational role, but the 2020 6th round pick has finished below 55 on PFF in all three seasons in the league, on an average of 353 snaps per season, especially struggling as a pass rusher with a 4.3% career pressure rate. Derrick Brown elevates the overall grade of this group by himself, but there isn’t much else to like here, aside from above average base package run defense from Shy Tuttle.

Grade: B-

Linebackers

The Panthers’ linebacking corps was a strength last season and should remain one in 2023. Shaq Thompson and Frankie Luvu were every down players, playing 1,098 snaps and 941 snaps respectively, and they finished 23rd and 17th among linebackers on PFF, with grades of 72.3 and 74.8 respectively. For Thompson, it was his 7th season above 60 in his 8-year career and his 4th season over 70. The 2015 1st round pick was kind of buried on the depth chart early in his career in what was then a very talented position group, but he always showed potential in limited action and since then he has started 59 of the 61 games he’s played over the past four seasons. Still only going into his age 29 season, I would expect more of the same from him in 2023.

Luvu, on the other hand, wasn’t drafted at all in 2018 and spent his first three seasons in the league showing very little on a total of 769 snaps with the Jets, who let him go following the 2020 season. However, he showed a lot of potential in his first season in Carolina in 2021, only playing 249 snaps, but posting a 84.8 grade on PFF, excelling as a run defender and a pass rusher (15.5% pressure rate) and holding his own in coverage as well, and he was able to continue that into a much bigger role in 2022 (15.8% pressure rate). 

Luvu’s coverage ability isn’t great, but it’s serviceable and he makes up for it with his pass rush ability, both as a blitzer and an edge defender, very valuable for a team with issues at that position. In fact, his 7 sacks were 2nd on the team last season, despite only rushing the passer on 26.0% of his pass defense snaps. He’s still only going into his age 27 season, so, while he’s only a one-year starter, it wouldn’t be a surprise if he at least came close to matching last season’s performance in his second season as a starter in 2023.

The concern in this group is depth, with top reserves Cory Littleton (372 snaps) and Damien Wilson (204 snaps) no longer with the team. Wilson was mediocre with a 57.1 PFF grade, but Littleton played well, with a 72.2 grade, and the Panthers didn’t do much to replenish depth aside from signing veteran journeyman Kamu Grugier-Hill, primarily a special teamer who has been mediocre on an average of 303 defensive snaps per season in seven seasons in the league. He will compete for a reserve role with 2022 4th round pick Brandon Smith, who struggled mightily on 52 rookie year snaps, but who theoretically has untapped upside. Thompson and Luvu are an above average every down duo, but their lack of depth hurts their overall grade at least somewhat.

Grade: B+

Secondary

The secondary was probably the Panthers’ biggest weakness on defense last season. Of the seven players who saw at least 300 snaps for them in the secondary last year, only two finished below 60 on PFF, with only one just barely over 70, with top cornerback Jaycee Horn finishing at 71.4. The Panthers didn’t do much to rectify the situation this off-season, but they did sign Vonn Bell from the Bengals on a 3-year, 22.5 million dollar deal. He figures to play a significant role at safety this season, alongside Xavier Woods, their other defensive back over 60 on PFF last season (63.5), and Jeremy Chinn, a versatile player who they are hoping can bounce back from an injury plagued 2022.

Bell has made 93 starts in 109 games in seven seasons in the league since being selected in the second round in 2016 by the Saints and he has finished above 60 on PFF in six straight seasons, with three seasons over 70 (2018, 2020, 2021). He’s at his best against the run, with 4 seasons above 78 on PFF in his career, but he holds up in coverage as well, with coverage grades above 60 from PFF in five of the past six seasons. Still in his late prime in his age 29 season, I would expect more of the same from Bell in 2023. He figures to be locked into a starting job, based on his salary and his history of reliable starting experience.

Woods also has a lot of reliable starting experience, with 80 starts in 92 games in six seasons in the league and six straight seasons above 60 on PFF, including three over 70. However, the 3-year, 15 million dollar contract he signed with the Panthers last off-season is less than what Vonn Bell signed for this off-season and the Panthers still like Jeremy Chinn despite his down 2022 season, so Woods could be the odd man out of a starting job, at least in base packages. In sub packages, the Panthers will likely still play a lot of three safety sets again like they did last season, when hybrid safety/cornerback Myles Hartsfield struggled with a 52.0 PFF grade on 812 snaps, so Woods should still have a significant role in this secondary even if he’s not a starter. He should be an obvious upgrade as the #3 safety over Hartsfield, who is no longer on the team.

It will probably be Chinn who plays the nickel cornerback spot in sub packages when the Panthers play three safeties, as he’s a proven versatile player who has shown he can line up in a bunch of different spots. He finished with a 54.9 PFF grade last season and was part of the problem in this secondary, but he wasn’t really healthy for most of the season with a hamstring injury that cost him six games and limited him in numerous others. Chinn was a 2nd round pick in 2020 and received a 71.4 PFF grade on 1,015 snaps in his last healthy season in 2021, after a 59.0 on 967 snaps as a rookie in 2020, and, still only in his age 25 season, he has obvious bounce back potential if he can stay healthy, which would be a big boost to this secondary.

The Panthers will need their safety depth to help cover for their lack of cornerback depth, because they did nothing to improve this group this off-season. They should get starting cornerback Donte Jackson back from injury, but it might not be in week 1, after he suffered an achilles tear in week 10 of last season and, even if he is back for week 1, he might not be at 100% right away. He’s also been a pretty inconsistent player even when healthy in his career, finishing below 60 on PFF twice, including last season (55.0), while maxing out at 70.4 back in 2020. When healthy is also a big qualifier with him, as he has missed 18 games in four seasons in the league and was injury prone even before his recent achilles tear. He has a good chance to struggle even when on the field this season.

CJ Henderson started in Jackson’s absence last season and would likely continue doing so if needed in 2023, but he had a 52.9 PFF grade on 765 snaps last season and would likely continue struggling if forced into significant action. Henderson was the 9th overall pick in the 2020 NFL Draft by the Jaguars, but he was sent to the Panthers for a third round pick after just one season and that proved to be a good move for the Jaguars, as Henderson hasn’t posted a season long grade higher than the 57.9 he posted as a rookie in 2020. 

Henderson still has theoretical upside, only going into his age 25 season, but he looks on his way to being a bust and would probably continue struggling in a starting role. If Jackson is healthy, expect Henderson to be a reserve and essentially the 4th cornerback, given the Panthers’ safety depth. The Panthers also still have Keith Taylor, who played 378 snaps last season, mostly down the stretch after Jackson’s injury. Taylor was a 5th round pick in 2021, but struggled with a 54.3 PFF grade last season, after struggling with a 52.8 PFF grade on 448 snaps as a rookie, so he’s best off as a deep reserve.

Jaycee Horn remains as the top cornerback. The 8th overall pick in the 2021 NFL Draft, last season was the first healthy season of his career, after injuries limited him to just 142 rookie season snaps, but he flashed potential even in very limited action as a rookie and, still only going into his age 23 season, he could easily take a step forward in his third season in the league in 2023. Even if Horn doesn’t improve, he should remain at least a solid, above average starting cornerback and the Panthers’ #1 cornerback by default. He elevates a position group that will be better with the addition of Vonn Bell and the likely return to form of Jeremy Chinn, but that still has significant concerns, especially at the cornerback position.

Grade: B

Conclusion

The Panthers are significantly better at quarterback with the addition of Bryce Young, even with Young being a rookie, but they have a long way to go to become a playoff caliber team, finishing last season 28th in DVOA and losing top wide receiver DJ Moore via trade. The Panthers did make some additions this off-season and don’t have a terrible roster, but if they make the post-season it will only be because they won their weak division and they figure to not be competitive in the post-season if they happen to make it. Even in a weak division, I would not make them the favorites. I will have a final prediction at the end of the off-season when all previews are completed.

Prediction: 7-10, 3rd in NFC South