Panthers

Cleveland Browns at Carolina Panthers: 2022 Week 1 NFL Pick

stevenlourie 2022 NFL Picks, 2022 Week 1 NFL Picks, Browns, NFL Picks, Panthers

Cleveland Browns (0-0) at Carolina Panthers (0-0)

This is one of the tougher calls of the week for me. Even without Deshaun Watson, I have the Browns three points better than the Panthers in my roster rankings, possessing one of the league’s best rosters around the quarterback and a capable high end backup quarterback in Jacoby Brissett. On the road in Carolina, that suggests the Browns should be favored by about a point or two and this line is even, so we’re getting some line value with Cleveland, but a pretty insignificant amount.

On top of that, this is a big revenge game situation for Baker Mayfield in his first game in Carolina after being traded by the Browns this off-season, despite winning the franchise’s first playoff game since their return to the league and playing through injury for much of the subsequent 2021 season. Mayfield was a much better quarterback in 2020 when healthy and should prove that in his new home in Carolina, even if it doesn’t lead to a playoff berth, with a questionable roster around him. I’m still taking the Browns, but we’re hardly getting value with them and there’s a good chance the Panthers get a better than average performance from Baker Mayfield, who has likely had this game circled since being traded.

Update: Right tackle Jack Conklin and his backup Chris Hubbard are out for this game, so I’m flipping this pick, but still for a no confidence pick.

Carolina Panthers 24 Cleveland Browns 23

Pick against the spread: Carolina PK

Confidence: None

Carolina Panthers 2022 NFL Season Preview

stevenlourie 2022 NFL Season Previews, Panthers

Quarterback

The 2020 Panthers were a middling team across the board, ranking 17th in offensive efficiency, 20th in defensive efficiency, and 20th in overall efficiency, but they fared poorly in close games, going 3-8 in games decided by one score or less, leading to them finishing just 5-11 on the season. A team’s record in one-score games is not predictive year-to-year, so there was some hope the Panthers would win noticeably more games in 2021. 

Going into 2021, the Panthers made improvements on defense, but, on offense, they made the risky decision to swap out the reliable, but unspectacular Teddy Bridgewater for unproven young quarterback Sam Darnold, while neglecting an offensive line that lost several starters from the year prior. As a result, both the Panthers’ offense and defense went in drastically different directions in 2021. Their defense improved significantly, finishing the season 4th in the NFL in efficiency, but, on offense, Darnold struggled and then got hurt, leaving backups Cam Newton and PJ Walker to start six games, during which they also struggled. 

The Panthers’ team quarterback rating fell from 87.5 in 2020, 23rd in the NFL, to 68.5 in 2021, dead last in the NFL, while their offensive efficiency rank plummeted to 29th in the NFL. The only thing that was similar for the Panthers is they once again won just 5 games, going 5-12, again doing so primarily because of a metric that is not predictive year-to-year, having the NFL’s 2nd worst turnover margin at -13, not just turning the ball over at a high rate on offense (29 turnovers, 2nd most in the NFL), but also managing just 16 takeaways, 5th fewest in the NFL, despite an otherwise great defense. 

If the Panthers’ defense is as good in efficiency rating again in 2022, they will almost certainly force more takeaways, which could make their turnover margin closer to zero, even if their offense continues struggling and continues turning the ball over at a high rate. However, it’s not that simple, as defensive performance tends to be much less consistent and predictive on a year-to-year basis than offensive performance. In terms of overall efficiency, which weights offense higher than defense and also takes into account the Panthers mediocre special teams, the Panthers ranked just 23rd last season, still a little better than their record, but worse than the year prior and not a sign of a team about to make a big leap.

Making matters worse, the Panthers didn’t have much flexibility this off-season. When they acquired Sam Darnold, not only did they give up a 2nd round pick to downgrade the quarterback position, but they also guaranteed his 18.858 million dollar salary for 2022 when they picked up his 5th year option. Darnold’s salary would make it tough to add another highly paid quarterback to the mix this off-season and, in addition to giving away their 2nd round pick for Darnold, the Panthers also gave away their 3rd and 4th round picks in separate trades, meaning they wouldn’t have the draft capital to add one of the top quarterbacks in the draft or to trade for a top quarterback unless they also gave away at least their first round pick.

The Panthers sat out the early off-season quarterback carousel and also passed on reaching for a quarterback with the 6th overall pick, only trading away their 4th round pick and a future 3rd round pick to get back into this year’s 3rd round to select Matt Corral, who looked like he would be competing with Darnold for the starting job in 2022, in what was almost definitely the worst quarterback room in the NFL. However, a gift fell into the Panthers’ lap when the Browns messed up the Baker Mayfield situation so much that they not only ate most of his salary, leaving the Panthers to pay him just 4.85 million for 2022, but also gave him away for just a 5th round pick in 2024.

Mayfield comes with some warts, which is why he was available so cheaply, but he undoubtedly would have returned more in a trade if the Browns had moved him earlier in the off-season, when Carson Wentz went for a pair of third round picks. He’s a legitimate NFL starting quarterback, which is not something you could say about the Panthers’ options previously, even if he is only a one-year rental, going into the final year of his rookie deal and likely to be due a steep raise as a free agent if he bounces back in 2022.

Mayfield struggled in 2021, completing just 60.5% of his passes for an average of 7.20 YPA, 17 touchdowns, and 13 interceptions, while ranking 30th among quarterbacks on PFF, which led to the Browns wanting to move on from him ahead of the final year of his rookie deal in 2022, but Mayfield wasn’t healthy for most of last season and he performed better in the past when healthy, completing 61.3% of his passes for an average of 7.38 YPA, 75 touchdowns, and 43 interceptions across his first three seasons in the league from 2018-2020, while finishing 11th, 17th, and 14th among quarterbacks across those three seasons respectively.

Mayfield is also only going into his age 27 season and his 5th year in the league, so the former #1 overall pick could have further untapped upside. Even if he doesn’t, he should at least be comparable to Teddy Bridgewater, who led this offense to a decent finish in 2020. The Panthers will nominally hold a quarterback competition with Darnold and Corral in the mix as well, but Darnold has a career 76.9 QB rating, while Corral is a raw player who would likely struggle as a rookie, so, with all of training camp to win the job, Mayfield should be considered to be close to a lock to be the week 1 starter. This definitely isn’t a great quarterback room, but it’s a lot more passable than it was before acquiring Mayfield.

Grade: B-

Offensive Line

The addition of Baker Mayfield is the biggest reason to expect the Panthers to be better offensively this season, as they would have had a hard time even being passable on offense with either Sam Darnold or Matt Corral as the starter, but they would have been at least a little better even without Mayfield. The biggest reason for that is their offensive line, which was also significantly worse in 2021 than it was in 2020, and figures to be noticeably improved in 2022. 

In 2021, just two primary starters on this offensive line finished above average on PFF, right tackle Taylor Moton and center Matt Paradis. Paradis wasn’t retained this off-season, after finishing 17th among centers on PFF in 2021, but he was limited to just 9 games by injury and was replaced with free agent acquisition Bradley Bozeman, who is one of three new starters added on this offensive line this off-season, along with expected left tackle Ikem Ekwonu and expected right tackle Austin Corbett.

If Bozeman plays like he did a year ago, he should be an upgrade on Paradis, as he was PFF’s 11th ranked center. It’s possible Bozeman could be that good again, but last season was the first season of his career at center and he was a much more middling guard in three seasons at that position before moving to center, maxing out as PFF’s 38th ranked guard in 2019. It’s possible he’s just a better fit at center and will remain a consistently above average center going forward, still only in his age 28 season, but that’s not necessarily a guarantee. Still, he should be at least a solid starter, as he has been throughout his career, and he was a great value on a 1-year, 2.8 million dollar deal.

Corbett was more expensive, signing for 26.25 million over 3 years, but he should be a solid addition as well. A 2nd round pick in 2018, Corbett didn’t do much in the first couple years of his career, but he’s broken out as an above average guard over the past two seasons, finishing 14th and 27th among guards on PFF in 2020 and 2021 respectively. Unlikely to regress to his previous form at this point and in his prime in his age 27 season, I would expect more of the same from him in 2022.

Ekwonu was added through the draft, taken 6th overall with the pick the Panthers wisely didn’t waste on a quarterback. He could have some growing pains as a rookie, but he also could have an immediate impact as an above average starter and he has the upside to be one of the best tackles in the league long-term. The Panthers are hoping he can form a great long-term duo with Taylor Moton, who was by far their best offensive lineman in 2021, finishing 21st among offensive tackles on PFF. That was no fluke either, as he was PFF’s 16th, 15th, and 13th ranked offensive tackle in 2018, 2019, and 2020 respectively as well, while making all 65 possible starts over the past four seasons. Still in his prime in his age 28 season, I would expect more of the same from him in 2022.

The one questionable spot remaining on this offensive line is left guard and it might not even be a weakness if 2021 3rd round pick Brady Christensen proves to be a capable starter in his first full year on the job, after earning a middling grade from PFF across 480 snaps as a rookie, seeing action at both tackle and guard. Christensen could see competition from Cameron Erving (589 snaps), Michael Jordan (703 snaps), Pat Elflein (534 snaps), and Dennis Daley (573 snaps), who all saw significant action last season and who all have the ability to play guard, but who all don’t currently have a clear starting role. 

Erving and Daley also both have the ability to play tackle as well, while Elflein can play center.

All of them are underwhelming starting options though, with them combining to have one above average season on PFF (Pat Elflein in 2019) between the four of them in 18 combined seasons in the league, so Christensen is still the favorite to start at left guard. Those players aren’t bad depth though, and all those guys being reserves just shows you how much better this offensive line should be than a year ago. 

Grade: B+

Running Backs

In addition to improved quarterback and offensive line play, the Panthers offense should also benefit from a healthier season from feature back Christian McCaffrey, who was limited to just 272 snaps (136 touches) in 7 games in 2021. McCaffrey also had an injury plagued 2020 season, playing just 171 snaps (76 touches) in 3 games, but, prior to his recent injuries, McCaffrey was one of the best running backs in the league, ranking 8th and 3rd among running backs on PFF in 2018 and 2019 respectively, while averaging 4.91 YPC across 506 total carries and adding 1.77 yards per route run through the air, and there are good reasons to think he can bounce back, even after two injury plagued years.

For one, McCaffrey is still very much in his prime, even for a running back, in his age 26 season. He’s also remained effective when on the field over the past two seasons, averaging 4.22 YPC on 158 carries and a ridiculous 2.45 yards per route run through the air, and he didn’t have any significant injury history prior to 2020, not missing a game in his first three seasons in the league from 2017-2019, despite position leading snap counts of 966 and 1,039 in 2018 and 2019 respectively (729 touches between those two seasons).

The Panthers probably won’t play him that much again in 2022, just to keep him fresh, but he is by far their best playmaker at the running back position, so he probably won’t come off the field more than a few snaps per game just to get a breather. The Panthers did upgrade their depth behind him a little bit this season though, after watching 2021 4th round pick Chuba Hubbard struggle mightily as the feature back in McCaffrey’s absence last season, rushing for 3.56 YPC on 172 carries, ranking 45th out of 50 eligible running backs in carry success rate at 44%, and managing just 0.98 yards per route run through the air, making him a clear downgrade over McCaffrey in every aspect.

Hubbard could be better in his second year in the league, but he’ll also face competition for the #2 job from free agent acquisition D’Onta Foreman. A 3rd round pick in 2017, Foreman flashed promise as a rookie, averaging 4.19 YPC across 78 carries, but then suffered a torn achilles that derailed his career for effectively three seasons, during which time he spent stretches out of the league and had just 29 carries total. However, Foreman was able to catch on with the Titans last season and showed his rookie year form again as the lead back when Derrick Henry got hurt, averaging 4.26 YPC on 133 carries and ranking 24th in carry success rate at 52%.

Foreman has never been used much in a passing down role, but he’s actually averaged 1.81 yards per route run for his career in very limited experience in passing situations. McCaffrey’s prowess as a passing down back will likely ensure he will play in almost every passing situation, but he could be split out wide or lined up in the slot on occasion and the Panthers will probably want to limit his carries in early down situations more than they have in the past to keep him fresh, so both Foreman and Hubbard could see at least some role behind McCaffrey. If McCaffrey can stay healthy, he is one of the best players in the league at his position, but that’s far from a guarantee, given how the past two seasons have gone, and their backups would still be a huge drop off from McCaffrey if he missed time.

Grade: A-

Receiving Corps

The Panthers’ quarterback and offensive line play should be significantly improved in 2022 compared to 2021, and could even be better than 2020, when they were a decent offense, even without Christian McCaffrey healthy for most of the season. With McCaffrey likely healthier in 2022, to go with an improved offensive line and quarterback situation, there is definitely reason for optimism on this offense, but it’s not quite that simple, as the Panthers’ receiving corps, which was their biggest strength in 2020, is now a position of concern.

In 2020, despite middling quarterback play at best, the Panthers had three wide receivers with impressive slash lines, with DJ Moore (66/1193/4) and Robbie Anderson (95/1096/3) being one of two wide receiver duos (DK Metcalf and Tyler Lockett) to both surpass 1,000 yards receiving and Curtis Samuel (77/851/3) surpassing 1,000 yards if you include his 200 rushing yards on 41 carries. Not only did those three all post impressive receiving totals, but they also averaged 2.23, 1.99, and 1.94 yards per route run respectively, while ranking 26th, 41st, and 31st respectively among wide receivers on PFF.

In 2021, Moore continued being a #1 receiver, posting a 93/1157/4 slash line, his 3rd straight 1,000 yard season, but Samuel had signed with Washington, while Anderson regressed mightily, managing just a 53/519/5 slash line, despite actually playing more passing snaps in 2021, averaging just 0.83 yards per route run and ranking 96th among 118 eligible wide receivers on PFF. It was a career worst year for Anderson, so he should be better in 2022, still only in his age 29 season, but 2020 was a career best year, so it’s unlikely he bounces back to that level and his 1.53 yards per route run average over the past five seasons is middling at best. 

Moore will remain the #1 receiver and, as a highly talented former first round pick who is only in his age 25 season and who is now probably getting the best quarterback he’s had in his career, a career best year would not be a surprise in the slightest. For a player that has already consistently surpassed 1,000 yards receiving, that career best year could put him among the league’s leaders in receiving, especially without a ton of competition for targets.

Terrace Marshall was drafted in the 2nd round of the 2021 NFL Draft as a replacement for Curtis Samuel, but he struggled mightily as a rookie, averaging just 0.50 yards per route run, while finishing as PFF’s 113rd ranked wide receiver out of 118 eligible across 422 snaps. Marshall’s struggles led to Brandon Zylstra, a 2017 undrafted free agent, playing a career high 334 snaps as, splitting time with Marshall as the #3 receiver. Zylstra averaged a decent 1.39 yards per route run average in 2021, but he has played just 549 total offensive snaps total in five seasons in the league and would be a very underwhelming #3 receiver if Marshall can’t take a step forward and lock down the #3 receiver job in his second year in the league.

Marshall could also face competition from veteran free agent acquisition Rashard Higgins. Higgins has mostly been a depth receiver in his career, but he’s surpassed 450 snaps played in four of six seasons in the league, while averaging 1.19 yards per route run, including 1.48 over the past four seasons, when his quarterback happened to be Baker Mayfield. He would be a middling #3 option at best, but his familiarity with Mayfield makes him at least worth noting. Marshall taking a big step forward in year two would be their best option at the #3 receiver spot, but that’s not a guarantee and, even if he does lock down the job, he could easily struggle, so it’s possible Higgins or Zylstra end up playing a significant role.

The Panthers also didn’t get much out of their tight ends last season, with Ian Thomas and Tommy Tremble playing 703 snaps and 522 snaps respectively, but averaging just 0.63 yards per route run and 0.65 yards per route run respectively. Thomas was a 3rd round pick in 2018 and came into the league with upside, but he hasn’t developed into anything more than a solid blocker, averaging just 0.63 yards per route run for his career. Now going into his age 26 season, Thomas is unlikely to have further untapped upside. Tremble at least has upside, selected in the 3rd round just a year ago in 2021, and he certainly has the ability to take a step forward in his second season in the league, but, even if he does, he could remain an underwhelming option. 

Outside of DJ Moore and pass catching running back Christian McCaffrey, the Panthers lack reliable pass catching options, although it wouldn’t be hard for this group to be better than a year ago by default, with Anderson and Marshall struggling mightily and McCaffrey missing most of the season. Still, it’s unlikely this group approaches their 2020 level of play, which hurts the Panthers’ chances of being significantly better on offense than their middling 2020 unit, even with McCaffrey likely to be healthier than 2020 and a quarterback and offensive line that both could be better than 2020.

Grade: B-

Edge Defenders

Any way you look at it, the Panthers offense figures to be significantly better in 2022 than it was in 2021 and they’re likely to be around a middling unit, similar to their 2020 offense. The 2021 Panthers finished 4th in defensive efficiency and, if you combined their 2020 offense and their 2021 defense, you would likely get a playoff team, but it’s not that simple, as it is unlikely the Panthers will be as good as they were defensively a year ago and it’s possible they could regress significantly. 

Part of it is just that it’s tougher to consistently play at a high level on defense than it is on offense. While an elite offense is largely quarterback driven, which usually remains steady year-to-year, an elite defense usually needs 7-9 players playing at an above average level and with defensive players leaving in free agency, getting hurt, or regressing on a regular basis in the NFL, it becomes very tough to maintain that high level of play every year. That should especially be true for the Panthers, who lost several key defenders from a year ago and now have a defense that much more closely resembles their mediocre 2020 unit than their dominant 2021 unit.

Their biggest loss is probably edge defender Haason Reddick, who signed with the Eagles on a 3-year, 45 million dollar deal in free agency this off-season, after spending only one season in Carolina. Reddick’s run defense left something to be desired, but he led this team with 11 sacks in 2021 and backed it up with good peripheral pass rush stats, with another 11 quarterback hits and a 10.0% pressure rate, so he was a big part of the reason for their defensive improvement in 2021 and he’ll be a big loss, especially since the Panthers didn’t really do much to replace him, not adding any notable veterans in free agency and unable to address the position in the draft until the 6th round, as a result of their lack of draft picks.

That sixth round rookie, Amare Barno, could see action as a rookie, which tells you how thin this group is now, but mostly the Panthers will be hoping for more from a pair of holdovers, Yetur Gross-Matos and Marquis Haynes. Gross-Matos has the higher upside, selected in the 2nd round in 2020, but he’s been middling at best across snap counts of just 377 and 349 respectively thus far in his career. It’s possible he could take a big step forward in his 3rd year in the league and he’ll have plenty of opportunity to start and earn a big role, but he’s a projection to that bigger role and it wouldn’t be a surprise if he struggled in it.

Haynes, on the other hand, doesn’t have much of an upside. He was selected in the 4th round in 2018, but hasn’t been more than a rotational reserve in his career, averaging 274 snaps per season over the past three years and maxing out at 390 snaps played in a season. Now in his 5th season in the league, Haynes has an obvious path to the biggest role of his career and he has been decent as a reserve, but he’s already in his age 29 season, meaning he’s unlikely to have any untapped upside, and he could easily struggle when forced into the biggest role of his career.

Fortunately, the Panthers still have Brian Burns, a 2019 1st round pick who has developed into a high level edge rusher over the past two seasons, totaling 18 sacks, 25 hits, and a 12.1% pressure rate. Burns leaves something to be desired against the run, but he’s still only in his age 24 season and has a sky high upside, so it wouldn’t be a surprise if he improved against the run going forward, or even if he improved further as a pass rusher, with the upside to be one of the best edge rushers in the league for years to come. However, the Panthers’ defense will be hurt by not having both him and Reddick rushing the passer off the edge in 2022 and depth is a big concern behind Burns.

Grade: B-

Interior Defenders

The Panthers also lost a pair of significant contributors at the interior defender spot this off-season, with both DaQuan Jones (640 snaps) and Morgan Fox (561 snaps) signing elsewhere this off-season, after being useful in their lone year with the Panthers, signing last off-season and helping this defense improve significantly from 2020 to 2021. Jones was an above average player against the run and as a pass rusher (7.1% pressure rate), finishing as PFF’s 39th ranked interior defender overall, while Fox struggled against the run, but also was an effective pass rusher, with a 7.7% pressure rate, leading to him finishing with a middling overall grade from PFF despite his issues against the run.

The Panthers added Matt Ioannidis in free agency this off-season and he’s a solid starter, finishing average or better on PFF in four straight healthy seasons, including a 40th ranked finish among interior defenders on PFF across 608 snaps last season, but he can only replace one of Jones or Fox. Ioannidis is a better pass rusher than either Fox or Jones, with 24.5 sacks, 32 hits, and a 11.5% pressure rate in 73 career games, but he does consistently struggle against the run. He’s not a bad starter, but, without any other additions made at the position this off-season, the Panthers have very questionable depth behind him.

Bravvion Roy is their top returning reserve from a year ago, but he struggled across just 341 snaps, finishing 115th among 146 eligible interior defenders, after ranking 128th among 139 eligible interior defenders across 419 snaps as a rookie in 2020. He could be better in his third year in the league in 2020, but he was just a 6th round pick, so it wouldn’t be a surprise at all if he never developed into even a useful rotational player and he’s likely to prove to be overstretched if he has to play a larger role in 2022 than he has in his first two seasons in the league. 

Roy will likely have to play that larger role though, with their next best reserve option probably being 2021 5th round pick Daviyon Nixon, who only played 82 snaps as a rookie and is basically a complete unknown at the NFL level. He may have more untapped upside than Roy, but only by default. Both Nixon and Roy are likely to struggle in extended reserve action and would almost definitely be significant weaknesses if they had to step into the starting lineup in place of an injured starter.

One thing that could happen in 2022 that would compensate for their lack of depth would be a breakout season by Derrick Brown, who was selected 7th overall in 2020 and now heads into his third season in the league. Brown has been steady, if unspectacular thus far in his career, earning slightly above average grades from PFF across snap counts of 742 and 631 respectively, holding up against the run and playing at his best as a pass rusher, with 5 sacks, 15 hits, and a 7.1% pressure rate in 32 career games, and he still has the upside and talent to make a big impact in year three if he can put it all together. 

That’s far from a guarantee, but it’s definitely a possibility and I would expect Brown to have his best year yet either way, even if he doesn’t happen to have a big breakout year and is only a little bit improved. He and Ioannidis should be an above average starting duo, but depth is very questionable. Reserves Bravvion Roy and Daviyon Nixon would likely struggle in significant action, while Brown and Ioannidis could get worn down if they have to play a huge snap count as the starters. That brings down the overall position grade somewhat significantly.

Grade: B-

Linebackers

The Panthers also lost every down off ball linebacker Jermaine Carter in free agency. That could have been addition by subtraction, as Carter was PFF’s 79th ranked off ball linebacker out of 94 eligible across 852 snaps in 2021, but the players the Panthers replaced him with are not necessarily going to be upgrades, as newcomers Damien Wilson and Cory Littleton also  finished just 77th and 64th respectively among off ball linebackers on snap counts of 866 and 663 respectively in 2021. Wilson has never been much better than that in 7 seasons in the league, finishing below average in 6 of those seasons and especially struggling last season when forced into a significant role. Littleton at least has some upside, but he’s not a guarantee to reach it and could easily struggle again. 

A starter for the past four seasons, Littleton was PFF’s 36th and 6th ranked off ball linebacker in his final seasons with the Rams in 2018 and 2019, while playing 964 snaps and 1,039 snaps respectively, before struggling mightily with the Raiders over the past two seasons, finishing below average in both seasons on snap counts of 849 and 663 respectively, having his role gradually scaled back and eventually getting released 2 years and 23.6875 million into a 3-year, 35.25 million dollar deal, leading to him winding up in Carolina on a much cheaper 1-year, 2.6 million dollar deal this off-season. Littleton was a worthwhile flyer at that price and could bounce back somewhat, but he also could easily struggle and, even if he does bounce back, it’s unlikely he comes close to playing like he did in his best season in the league in 2019.

Littleton and Wilson could both see significant roles as starters in this linebacking corps, playing in base packages with Shaq Thompson, who is the likely to be the only true every down linebacker in this group. Littleton and Wilson come with concerns, but the biggest concern for this group would be if Shaq Thompson regressed significantly, which is a possibility, as he ranked 15th among off ball linebackers in 2021, but only 31st in 2019 and 71st in 2020 in his first two seasons as an every down player. 

Thompson was better earlier in his career as a part-time player, but he hasn’t been a high level every down linebacker in any of his other six seasons in the league, so it’s very possible he isn’t as good in 2022 as he was in 2021, even if only a little bit. Thompson still elevates an otherwise very underwhelming linebacking corps, but it would hurt this defense if he was noticeably worse than a year ago, especially if he happened to regress to his 2020 form, when he was a below average player, a big part of the reason why they were just a middling defense that season.

Grade: B

Secondary

The Panthers also lost cornerbacks Stephon Gilmore and AJ Bouye this off-season and, while neither of them played huge snap counts in 2021, playing 304 snaps and 401 snaps respectively, they were their top two cornerbacks in terms of coverage grade on PFF in their only season in Carolina, making an impact on a defense that was much more middling the year before. Gilmore especially played well, finishing 9th among cornerbacks in coverage grade, and the Panthers didn’t really replace either of them. 

They did retain Donte Jackson, who was also a free agent this off-season, bringing him back on a 3-year, 35.18 million dollar deal, but there’s a very good chance he isn’t worth that contract, which makes him the 17th highest paid cornerback in the NFL in average annual salary. Jackson was PFF’s 30th ranked cornerback in 2020, but that was the best season of his career and it came on just 599 snaps, with Jackson being middling at best across snap counts of 895, 726, and 717 in 2018, 2019, and 2021 respectively, including a slightly below average finish last season. Jackson was a 2nd round pick in 2018, but hasn’t consistently put it together, in part due to injuries, and, now in his age 27 season, I wouldn’t expect him to suddenly be worth being paid like a #1 cornerback, even if that is what he may be on this defense by default.

Without any significant replacements added for Gilmore and Bouye, the Panthers will be counting on getting more out of some young players. One young player who almost definitely will give them more is Jaycee Horn, the 8th overall pick in the 2021 NFL Draft, whose career looked off to a promising start, before his rookie season was ended after 142 snaps in 3 games by an injury. He’s a bit of a wild card and an unknown commodity at the NFL level, but he showed a lot of promise in limited action last season and has the upside to be a consistently above average starter long-term, even if it takes him a couple years to reach his potential.

CJ Henderson is also a recent top-10 pick, but, compared to Horn, he is much less certain to give them significantly more than he did a year ago, even if all he gave them last year was 282 mediocre snaps. Henderson was actually originally drafted by the Jaguars, but struggled in 474 rookie year snaps with them and lasted two games into his second season in the league in 2021 before he was traded to the Panthers for a 3rd round pick and tight end Dan Arnold, a trade the Jaguars appear to have won thus far, even though they were selling low on a top-10 pick. Henderson still has upside, but it wouldn’t be a surprise if he didn’t put it together and continued struggling, now likely expected to take on a larger role in his second season with the team.

Keith Taylor, a 2021 5th round pick, is also in the mix for a role, even though he was pretty mediocre on 448 snaps as a rookie and isn’t necessarily a guarantee to develop into a useful starter, given that he wasn’t highly drafted. Myles Hartsfield is a slot/safety hybrid option who could see a role at cornerback in sub packages, but the 2020 undrafted free agent struggled in the first extended action of his career across 472 snaps in 2021, finishing in just the 5th percentile among defensive backs on PFF. He’s no guarantee to be any better going forward and looks like a bottom of the roster talent.

Hartsfield probably doesn’t have much opportunity to earn a role at safety this season, as safety is the one position the Panthers actually upgraded on defense this off-season, signing Xavier Woods, who should be a good value on a 3-year, 15 million dollar deal. Woods has never been a top level safety, but he’s made 61 starts over the past four seasons, while finishing average or better on PFF in all four seasons, maxing out as their 28th ranked safety in 2019, so he should at least be an average starter, with the upside to be more. He should be an upgrade on Juston Burris and Sean Chandler, who played 420 snaps and 538 snaps respectively at safety last season and were pretty mediocre, as they have been throughout their careers. They will now be reserves with Woods coming in, roles they are much better fits in.

Woods will start opposite Jeremy Chinn, who remains as the other safety. A 2nd round pick in 2020, Chinn had a solid rookie season and then quickly developed into one of the Panthers’ best defensive players in his second season in the league in 2021, finishing as PFF’s 27th ranked safety. Still only in his age 24 season, it’s possible he has more untapped upside and he should at least remain an above average starter going forward. He leads a secondary that is decent, but unspectacular overall.

Grade: B

Special Teams

The Panthers had a below average special teams unit last season, ranking 24th in special teams DVOA, but there are some reasons for optimism in 2021. They added punter Johnny Hekker and returner Andre Roberts, who have been among the best players in the league at their positions in their respective careers, finishing in the top-7 at their position in 6 of 9 seasons and 4 of 8 seasons respectively in which they were the primary option at their position. Both would be significant upgrades at their respective positions if they played at that level in 2022.

However, the flip side of that is both Hekker and Roberts are going into their age 32 and age 34 season respectively and coming off of down years, finishing 11th and 37th respectively at their positions on PFF. On top of that, they didn’t have a single core special teamer finish in the top-50 among special teamers on PFF in 2021 and didn’t add any this off-season, while kicker Zane Gonzalez is unlikely to repeat a career best year, finishing 6th among kickers on PFF, after never finishing higher than 9th in any of his first four seasons in the league prior to last season. This is likely to be a below average group again, even if they may be slightly improved.

Grade: C+

Conclusion

The Panthers improved their offensive line earlier in the season and they were always likely to get a healthier season out of Christian McCaffrey, but, prior to their trade for Baker Mayfield, this looked likely to be another lost season for the Panthers, with the worst quarterback situation in the league and a defense that looks likely to be significantly worse than a year ago. Mayfield gives them a legitimate starting caliber quarterback, even if only a low-end one, and he comes at the price of a backup and a mid-round draft pick two years from now. 

The Panthers’ defense is still highly unlikely to be as good as a year ago and could be similar to their middling 2020 unit, but they probably won’t be bad on defense and they’re unlikely to be bad on offense, with an improved quarterback situation and more talent around the quarterback than a year ago. Ultimately, it’s still unlikely this team can earn a wild card spot in the NFC, but they will at least be a more competitive team than they would have been if they had to start Sam Darnold or Matt Corral all season. I will have a final prediction at the end of the off-season when all previews are completed.

Final Prediction: The Panthers will be more competitive with Baker Mayfield than they otherwise would have been, but still have an underwhelming roster and are likely to finish below .500.

Prediction: 6-11, 3rd in NFC South

Carolina Panthers at Tampa Bay Buccaneers: 2021 Week 18 NFL Pick

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Carolina Panthers (5-11) at Tampa Bay Buccaneers (12-4)

This line, favoring the Buccaneers only by 8.5 points at home over the Panthers, suggests that the odds makers aren’t sure if the Buccaneers will play their starters for this whole game, but I think it’s likely that they do, given that they will want to secure the #2 seed in the NFC, which will get them at least two home playoff games, as well potential NFC Championship homefield advantage if the #1 seed loses in the second round. Buccaneers head coach Bruce Arians has also said they aren’t resting anyone and resting in the final week of the season has never been something Tom Brady has done in his career, even when there has been nothing to play for, so I am not sure why this line is at 8.5, down from 16.5 on the early line a week ago.

The Buccaneers are still going to be short-handed, missing stud wide receiver Chris Godwin, their two best running backs Leonard Fournette and Ronald Jones, their two best edge defenders Shaq Barrett and Jason Pierre-Paul, and their top linebacker Lavonte David, but they should still be favored by more than 8.5 points against the Panthers, who are 12.5-point underdogs on my calculated line. The Panthers got off to a 3-0 start, but, in large part due to injuries, have lost 11 of their last 13 games and are one of the worst teams in the league.

The Panthers’ offense bottomed out without feature back Christian McCaffrey and talented center Matt Paradis, while their defense is not as good as it was earlier in this season due to all of the cornerbacks they are missing with injuries, most notably top cornerback Stephon Gilmore, who was acquired to replace the injured Jaycee Horn, who is joined on injured reserve by fellow expected starters Donte Jackson and AJ Bouye. This line is underpriced, so the Buccaneers are worth a bet this week.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers 26 Carolina Panthers 13

Pick against the spread: Tampa Bay -8.5

Confidence: Medium

Carolina Panthers at New Orleans Saints: 2021 Week 17 NFL Pick

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Carolina Panthers (5-10) at New Orleans Saints (7-8)

At first glance, these two teams seem similar, with both having poor offenses and strong defenses. However, there are some differences. For one, the Saints are slightly better on both sides of the ball, ranking 27th in schedule adjusted offensive efficiency and 2nd in schedule adjusted defensive efficiency, while the Panthers rank 31st and 3rd respectively. The Saints also have the edge on special teams (12th vs. 23rd) and rank about three points higher than the Panthers in mixed efficiency (15th vs. 23rd). 

The Saints are also going in the right direction in terms of personnel absences, while the Panthers are heading the other direction. The Saints are still missing a lot on offense, with original starting quarterback Jameis Winston, expected top wide receiver Michael Thomas, stud right tackle Ryan Ramczyk, and starting left guard Andrus Peat all still out and starting center Erik McCoy joining them, but they will get back their two backup quarterbacks Taysom Hill and Trevor Siemian, whose absence last week forced 4th string quarterback Ian Book into a near impossible situation last week, and they will also get back leading receiver Deonte Harris and likely left tackle Terron Armstead. 

The Saints also were without feature back Alvin Kamara for a stretch earlier this season and he has since returned so, in general, the Saints are relatively healthier on offense than they have been in recent weeks, while the same is true of their defense. They’ll be without safety Marcus Williams this week, which is a big absence, but they’ll get back fellow starting safety Malcolm Jenkins and stud linebacker Demario Davis and are healthier than they have been on the defensive line, in just the sixth game in which their dominant trio of defensive linemen, Cameron Jordan, David Onyemata, and Marcus Davenport, have played at the same time, with one of those being last week when Davis and Jenkins were out.

The Panthers, meanwhile, have been horrendous on offense since losing feature back Christian McCaffrey and talented center Matt Paradis, while their defense is starting to lose talented players as well. Already without cornerback Jaycee Horn for an extended period of time, the Panthers have since lost fellow starting cornerbacks Donte Jackson and AJ Bouye, while Horn’s replacement, Stephon Gilmore, is now out as well, a bigger absence than any of them. Gilmore is also likely to be accompanied on the sidelines this week by edge defender Haason Reddick, a huge loss for their pass rush.

The Panthers started 3-0, but injuries have been a big part of the reason why they have gone 2-10 since and I would expect that to continue this week, in arguably the worst shape they have been in all season. This line favors the Saints by 6.5, but my roster rankings have the Saints with a 7.5-point edge, making them 9.5-point home favorites, giving us good line value with them. I don’t want to lock this in until I know for sure the status of Terron Armstead and Haason Reddick, but it seems as if the former is playing and the latter is not and, even if that’s not true, the Saints are the pick for pick ‘em purposes.

Update: I still don’t know about Armstead, but Reddick is not playing, which is enough for me to make a small bet on the Saints, before this line potentially moves.

New Orleans Saints 20 Carolina Panthers 10

Pick against the spread: New Orleans -6.5

Confidence: Medium

Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Carolina Panthers: 2021 Week 16 NFL Pick

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Tampa Bay Buccaneers (10-4) at Carolina Panthers (5-9)

The Buccaneers shockingly lost to the Saints as 11-point home favorites last week, but they won both the first down rate and yards per play battle in a game that likely would have gone the other way had the Buccaneers not lost the turnover battle by two, which is not a predictive metric, and, for all of the Saints’ offensive issues, they have arguably the best defense in the league right now, so the Buccaneers’ loss and their offensive struggles aren’t that concerning. Teams also tend to cover after a big upset loss like that, covering at a 57.4% rate after a loss as favorites of 10 points or more, as teams tend to be much more focused as a result of the embarrassment and also tend to be undervalued.

Tom Brady’s record of success after a loss is also well-documented, as he hardly loses back-to-back games. The problem is that, while Brady is close to an automatic cover off of a loss as long as he isn’t favored by too much, going 36-11 ATS as underdogs of favorites of seven points or fewer, that doesn’t hold up when he’s favored by more than seven points, going 11-13 ATS, and the Buccaneers are favored by 10 points in this matchup in Carolina. 

On top of that, the Buccaneers are missing a lot of key players in this game that will make it even tougher to cover this high spread, as they will be without two of their top three wide receivers, Mike Evans and Chris Godwin, their top running back Leonard Fournette, and two of their best defensive players, linebacker Lavonte David and safety Antoine Winfield. The Panthers are a trainwreck on offense, missing their top offensive player Christian McCaffrey and several offensive line starters, and dealing with the league’s worst quarterback situation, but their defense is still playing at a high level and can keep this game relatively competitive. I’m still taking the Buccaneers for pick ‘em purposes, but I can’t be confident in them at all.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers 24 Carolina Panthers 13

Pick against the spread: Tampa Bay -10

Confidence: None

Carolina Panthers at Buffalo Bills: 2021 Week 15 NFL Pick

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Carolina Panthers (5-8) at Buffalo Bills (7-6)

The Bills have had a weird season. They are 7-6 and barely hanging out to a playoff spot, but five of their six losses have come by one score, while their seven wins have all come by 15 points or more, meaning they are 0-5 in close games and could easily have a couple more wins at least. As a result, their point differential of +134 ranks 2nd in the NFL. Their schedule has been one of the easier in the league, but even with that taken into account, the Bills rank 7th, 1st, and 14th in offensive, defensive, and special teams efficiency, while leading the league in mixed efficiency. 

However, their success has been primarily concentrated against their weaker opponents, as they are just 1-5 against teams who are .500 or better. Some of those games could have gone the other way fairly easily, but it’s a concern for the Bills as they try to make a deep playoff run. The Panthers are more in line with the teams the Bills normally blow out, but, as bad as their offense is (31st in schedule adjusted efficiency), their defense is still one of the best in the league (3rd in schedule adjusted efficiency), so they’re not a complete pushover and the Bills are not as healthy as they were for their blowout victories this season. 

The big blow for the Bills was losing top cornerback Tre’Davious White for the season a few weeks ago, but they will also be without starting left tackle Dion Dawkins and starting wide receiver Emmanuel Sanders in this game, while quarterback Josh Allen could be limited with a foot injury. I still have the Bills calculated as 10.5-point favorites, but this line is at 12, so we’re getting some line value with the Panthers, albeit not significant value. 

The Panthers are also in a little bit better of a spot as the Bills could be looking forward to their rematch with the Patriots next week and could either give less than their best effort or take their foot off the gas with a big lead and allow a backdoor cover. I’m still hesitant to go against a team that has blown out so many teams this season, so this is a no confidence pick, but the Bills are banged up and the Panthers aren’t as bad as most of the teams the Bills have blown out, so I expect this to be closer than the Bills’ other victories.

Update: Derrick Brown has been ruled out for the Panthers with COVID, but the line has adjusted appropriately, moving up to 14, so I am still on the Panthers for a no confidence pick at the new number.

Buffalo Bills 26 Carolina Panthers 13

Pick against the spread: Carolina +14

Confidence: None

Atlanta Falcons at Carolina Panthers: 2021 Week 14 NFL Pick

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Atlanta Falcons (5-7) at Carolina Panthers (5-7)

The last time we saw the Panthers, they were beaten easily in Miami in a horrific performance for the Panthers offense in their first game with Cam Newton under center without feature back Christian McCaffrey, who is out for the season. Fortunately, the Panthers had a bye last week, so Cam Newton will hopefully have a better grasp of this offense two weeks later, still only about a month into his return to Carolina, where he has had to learn an entirely new offensive system. Newton is far past his prime, but it wouldn’t be hard for him to be an upgrade on what the Panthers have gotten out of their other quarterback this season.

It also helps that the Panthers are playing the Falcons, who are one of the worst teams in the league, despite their 5-7 record. The Falcons’ five wins have all come by one score against teams with a losing record, while four of their seven losses have come by 23 points or more and five or seven by 13 points or more, contributing to a -116 point differential that ranks 4th worst in the NFL. The Panthers have the same record at 5-7, but they have a significantly better point differential at -17 and they have a clear edge in schedule adjusted mixed efficiency as well, ranking 24th, as opposed to 31st for the Falcons.

Carolina’s offense has been terrible this season regardless of the quarterback and when McCaffrey has been out it has been even worse, leading to them ranking 31st in schedule adjusted offensive efficiency on the season, but their defense has been one of the best in the league, especially in recent weeks since top linebacker Shaq Thompson and #1 cornerback Stephon Gilmore have returned from injury, leading to them ranking 2nd in schedule adjusted defensive efficiency on the season. The Falcons, on the other hand, haven’t been particularly good at anything, ranking 26th on offense and 22nd on defense.

Despite that, the Panthers are favored by just 2.5 points at home, suggesting these two teams are about even, which is not the case. My calculated line favors the Panthers by five points, so we’re getting great line value with the Panthers with this line being under a field goal, as just 8% of games are decided by 1-2 points, as opposed to 16% by exactly a field goal. However, I’m not going to bet the Panthers for a couple reasons.

For one, I don’t want to bet on the Panthers until I know how much better Cam Newton has gotten in this offense since the last time we saw him, given how terrible he was his last time out. On top of that, the Panthers are in a bad spot, having already beaten the Falcons in Atlanta earlier this year. Divisional home favorites cover at just a 42.4% rate in a same season regular season rematch against a team that they previously beat as road underdogs, as the Panthers did in Atlanta. The Panthers still make sense for pick ‘em purposes as they are the only team in this game with an above average unit in any phase of the game, but I wouldn’t recommend betting on them.

Carolina Panthers 20 Atlanta Falcons 16

Pick against the spread: Carolina -2.5

Confidence: Low

Carolina Panthers at Miami Dolphins: 2021 Week 12 NFL Pick

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Carolina Panthers (5-6) at Miami Dolphins (4-7)

The Dolphins started this season 1-7, but they have won three straight to push their record to a somewhat respectable 4-7. That, combined with the Dolphins being 10-6 a year ago, has caused the public to think this is no longer one of the worst teams in the league, but that is a flawed assessment for a couple reasons. For one, their three wins haven’t been impressive, as one came on a short week against an exhausted Ravens team who played an overtime game the week before, a spot in which just 16% of teams cover the spread, while their other two wins came by one score against arguably the two worst teams in the league the Texans and the Jets, with the latter coming in a game in which the Jets won both the yards per play and first down rate battle, which are the most predictive metrics. 

The Dolphins rank 31st, 22nd, 27th, 30th in offensive, defensive, special teams, and mixed efficiency respectively, which are based on yards per play and first down rate and adjusted for schedule, showing them to still be one of the worst teams in the league from a statistical standpoint, even though they are 4-7. The Dolphins did win 10 games a year ago, but they faced a very easy schedule and they benefited from an unsustainably high turnover margin (+11), opponent’s field goal percentage (3rd lowest at 73.91%), and 3rd/4th down conversion rate allowed (33.02%), which was actually lower than the 34.07% conversion rate they allowed on 1st/2nd down (4th highest in the NFL), so they were not nearly as good as their record suggested.

The Panthers, meanwhile, rank 30th, 2nd, 20th, and 18th offensive, defensive, special teams, and mixed efficiency respectively this season. Their offensive performance is concerning, especially because offensive performance tends to be the most predictive of the three phases, but they should be at least somewhat better now that they have feature back Christian McCaffrey back from an extended absence and now that they have probably their best quarterback of the year under center, with Cam Newton returning to the team a couple weeks ago. The Panthers defense, meanwhile, is legitimately one of the best in the league now that linebacker Shaq Thompson and cornerback Stephon Gilmore, two of the best players in the league at their respective positions, are both back healthy.

The Panthers are 5-6 despite having arguably the worst quarterback play in the league and being without their best offensive player for about half of the season, so with Newton and McCaffrey now in the lineup, the Panthers should be at least an average opponent going forward. Newton is certainly not without his faults, but, as bad as the Panthers’ quarterback play has been this season, it won’t be hard for Newton to be an upgrade and he could easily be a significant upgrade.

The Panthers lost at home to Washington in Newton’s first start last week, but that was a one score loss against a decent opponent and Newton should be more comfortable with the playbook this week, in what is a much easier matchup in Miami. Despite that, the Panthers are just 2-point favorites, which shows how much the Dolphins are overrated. My calculated line has the Panthers favored by 5.5 points and, in a game in which the Panthers basically just have to win to cover (about 8% of games are decided by 2 points or fewer), the Panthers are an easy choice against the spread, as long as the line stays under a field goal.

Carolina Panthers 23 Miami Dolphins 17

Pick against the spread: Carolina -2

Confidence: High

Washington Football Team at Carolina Panthers: 2021 Week 11 NFL Pick

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Washington Football Team (3-6) at Carolina Panthers (5-5)

SInce cutting Cam Newton at the start of the 2020 off-season, the Panthers have paid Teddy Bridgewater 31 million for one season of decent play, before salary dumping him on the Broncos in a trade that netted Carolina just a sixth round pick. The Panthers then sent a second round pick to the Jets for Sam Darnold and guaranteed his 18.858 million dollar option for 2022, effectively locking him into a fully guaranteed 2-year, 23.63 million dollar deal, after already giving up a premium pick to acquire him. 

They passed on both Justin Fields and Mac Jones in the draft and entered the season with just Darnold and inexperienced PJ Walker under center. Because of that, when Darnold somewhat predictably struggled and eventually got hurt, the Panthers had to turn to a street free agent at quarterback. It just so happens that street free agent is Cam Newton, their original starting quarterback, who was available after a failed one-year stint as the starter in New England. It’s embarrassing for the Panthers that they committed all these resources to replace Newton only to end up with him anyway and Newton is definitely not the quarterback he was in his prime, but he was also their best option and it wouldn’t be hard for him to be an upgrade for the Panthers.

If he can be that upgrade, even if only by default, the Panthers all of a sudden become a solid team. They’re 5-5 despite their horrendous quarterback play, led by a defense that ranks 2nd in schedule adjusted efficiency on the season and that has been even better since getting cornerback Stephon Gilmore and linebacker Shaq Thompson, two of the best players in the league at their respective positions, back from injury. They rank 31st in schedule adjusted offensive efficiency, but I would expect that to improve going forward, not only because of the addition of Newton, but also because of the recent return of stud feature back Christian McCaffrey from injury.

Unfortunately, we’re not really getting line value with the Panthers, as this line has shifted from favoring the Panthers by two points last week on the early line to favoring them by three points this week, a more significant shift than it seems, given that about 1 in 6 games are decided by exactly a field goal. If Newton hadn’t just arrived a week and a half ago and was more familiar with the system, we would still be getting line value with the Panthers at three, but Newton isn’t even expected to play the whole game, meaning the overmatched PJ Walker will likely continue seeing some action.

That line movement happened despite the fact that Washington pulled a huge upset over the Buccaneers last week, a much more surprising upset than the Panthers’ win over the Cardinals and their backup quarterback Colt McCoy. Normally teams are a bad bet after a huge home upset victory, as teams have covered at just a 40.9% rate all-time after winning as home underdogs of 5 or more (Washington was +9.5 last week), but that’s mostly due to teams being overvalued or overconfident in that spot. Washington could be overconfident, but they don’t seem to be overvalued as 3-point underdogs. I’m still taking Carolina for pick ‘em purposes, but they’re not worth betting.

Carolina Panthers 20 Washington Football Team 16

Pick against the spread: Carolina -3

Confidence: Low

Carolina Panthers at Arizona Cardinals: 2021 Week 10 NFL Pick

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Carolina Panthers (4-5) at Arizona Cardinals (8-1)

There is still a lot of uncertainty on the status of Kyler Murray and DeAndre Hopkins in this game, as both are being called gametime decisions, but a line has still been posted for most of the week at Arizona -10. The Cardinals were only 2-point underdogs in San Francisco for most of last week despite the uncertainty of Murray and Hopkins, before the line moved to 5.5 by gametime when both were ruled out, so this line being posted favoring Arizona by double digits isn’t a guarantee that Murray and Hopkins play, but this does seem like a different situation than last week, at least for Murray, who returned to practice Friday and seems to be on the right side of questionable.

Murray might not be 100% though and Hopkins may be on the wrong side of questionable, not practicing at all this week for the second straight week. Hopkins plays despite not practicing more than maybe any player in the league and last week was just the third missed game of his 9-year career, playing through multiple ailments throughout his career, so if anyone can play despite missing the last two weeks of practice, it’s him, but the missed practice time is not a good sign for his status. 

On top of that, the Cardinals could be without Rondale Moore, who would be Hopkins’ replacement, but is currently in the concussion protocol and may not be cleared by gametime. The Cardinals’ defense is missing a key player as well, with JJ Watt out for the season, so this team is not at the same strength it was when they started the season 7-0. Even if they were, it’s possible the Cardinals will slack off a little bit this week after beating the 49ers with a backup quarterback last week, similar to how the Cowboys disappointed last week as big home favorites in Dak Prescott’s return, after beating the Vikings in Minnesota with a backup quarterback.

Despite all that, I still want to pick the Cardinals, as my calculated line even with injury uncertainty taken into account is Arizona -13. The Panthers are 4-5, but three of their wins have come against among the worst teams in the league, the Falcons, Jets, and Texans and they didn’t win any of those games convincingly. Their defense is one of the best in the league with Stephon Gilmore and Shaq Thompson now in the lineup healthy, but their offense has been one of the worst in the league and is worse than their defense is good.

Starting quarterback Sam Darnold was part of the problem for this Panthers offense, but him being injured is not necessarily a good thing for this team, as his backup PJ Walker could easily be a downgrade, given how poorly the former undrafted free agent and XFL product has played in his limited NFL career thus far, completing less than 50% of his passes with one touchdown to five interceptions and a 42.0 QB rating. He’s arguably the least qualified backup quarterback in the NFL. There is too much uncertainty here to bet on the Cardinals, but they are my pick for pick ‘em purposes as of right now. If Murray is ruled out, this line will obviously change and I will update this pick, but I don’t see myself betting either side regardless of what happens.

Update: Rondale Moore is expected to play, but both Murray and Hopkins seem unlikely to play. I don’t know why the odds makers have posted a line without any certainty about Murray’s status in back-to-back weeks, but they have been quickly lowering this line, down to 7.5 now. I don’t know if it will keep falling when Murray and Hopkins are officially ruled out, but my calculated line if both don’t play is Arizona -6.5, so I am going to be on the Panthers for the time being, as it will be tough for Colt McCoy to play at the same level he played at last week and go on the road and beat a great defense by multiple scores. I will have a final update before gametime.

Update: Murray and Hopkins are out. I wouldn’t recommend betting Carolina at +7.5, but if you are going to do so, you’ll need to lock it in soon as the line has started to drop to 7 in some places.

Arizona Cardinals 16 Carolina Panthers 10

Pick against the spread: Carolina +7.5

Confidence: Low