Panthers

New England Patriots at Carolina Panthers: 2021 Week 9 NFL Pick

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New England Patriots (4-4) at Carolina Panthers (4-4)

This is a game with a lot of injury uncertainty. The big question mark is Panthers running back Christian McCaffrey, who has been out since the Panthers’ week 3 game, a stretch in which the Panthers offense has struggled mightily without him. The Panthers 3-0 start was in large part due to an easy schedule, but there is no denying how much injuries have hurt this team as they have fallen from 3-0 to 4-4 and McCaffrey’s injury was the biggest one. The Panthers’ defense, which had its own injury issues earlier in the season, is in much better shape now with Stephon Gilmore and Shaq Thompson both healthy, so, if McCaffrey can play, the Panthers should be in much better shape on both sides of the ball than they were a couple weeks ago. 

I say “should” because, in addition to it being unknown how close to 100% McCaffrey would be if he played, the Panthers also have uncertainty at quarterback, with Sam Darnold dealing with both a concussion and a shoulder injury. Darnold has not played well this season, but the Panthers would be in even worse shape at quarterback if he played at less than 100% or if they had to turn to backup PJ Walker, who has struggled when called upon in limited action in his career. The Panthers also could get punter Joseph Charlton back this week, which would be a huge upgrade for their special teams, but also adds more injury uncertainty to this game.

The Patriots have been listed as 4-point road favorites, with the oddsmakers posting a line despite the uncertainty. The Patriots are just 4-4, but they could easily have anywhere from 5-7 wins right, as three of their losses came by 1 point, 2 points, and in overtime, meaning they were just -3 in point differential at the end of regulation across those three losses. Two of their wins are one-score wins, but one took a garbage time touchdown by the Chargers to make it a one-score game, while the other came in a game in which they were missing four of their five offensive line starters. 

The Patriots’ offensive line is healthy now and this is a much better team than their record suggests, ranking 11th in schedule adjusted mixed team efficiency, despite their offensive line injuries, while the Panthers have ranked 26th, albeit while dealing with injuries of their own. The Patriots won’t be an appealing bet at -4 if McCaffrey, Darnold, and Charlton all play at something close to 100%, but I don’t foresee that happening, so it’s very likely I will end up putting a bet on New England. I am leaving the Patriots as a low confidence pick for now because of the uncertainty, but I’ll probably have an update before gametime, likely on Saturday after the injured reserve activation deadline. 

Update: Both McCaffrey and Darnold seem likely to play, although there is no way to know how effective either will be. It’s enough for me to leave this as a low confidence pick though, particularly the McCaffrey news, as he’s probably their most important offensive player.

New England Patriots 20 Carolina Panthers 13

Pick against the spread: New England -4

Confidence: Low

Carolina Panthers at Atlanta Falcons: 2021 Week 8 NFL Pick

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Carolina Panthers (3-4) at Atlanta Falcons (3-3)

Both of these teams have won three games each, but that has more to do with who they have played than either team being good or even average. The Falcons’ three wins came against the Giants, Jets, and Dolphins, who are a combined 4-16, and none of them came by more than one score, while their three losses have come by a combined 53 points, even though the Buccaneers are the only team the Falcons have played who are .500 or better, having faced one of the easiest schedules in the league overall.

The Panthers, meanwhile, got their three wins in the first three weeks of the season, but two of those wins came against the Jets and Texans, who are among the worst teams in the league, and the Panthers have lost all four games since then by a combined 39 points, even though they faced just one winning team (Dallas) over that stretch. The Panthers have faced the tougher schedule overall and their week 2 win over the Saints is the only win either of these two teams has against even a decent team, but neither of these teams has an impressive resume.

The Falcons have had success more recently than the Panthers, which has led to this line shifting from favoring the Falcons by 2 points on the early line last week to 3 points this week, a significant shift given that 1 in 6 games are decided by exactly a field goal, but the Panthers have played better statistically across the whole season, ranking 28th, 6th, and 27th in schedule adjusted offensive, defensive, and special teams efficiency respectively, as opposed to 24th, 30th, and 31st for the Falcons. 

The Panthers’ recent struggles have largely been the result of significant injury absences, most notably feature back Christian McCaffrey, top linebacker Shaq Thompson, and top cornerback Jaycee Horn, but, while McCaffrey remains out, Thompson seems likely to return this week, while recently acquired cornerback Stephon Gilmore will make his debut, which should at least offset the loss of Horn and which could be a big upgrade for this defense if he is anything close to his top form. 

The Panthers are also in a better spot than the Falcons, desperate to bounce back off of last week’s embarrassing loss to the Giants, while the Falcons have to turn around and face the Saints in New Orleans next week. Teams cover at just a 41.1% rate all-time at home in a divisional matchup against a team with a sub .500 record before going on the road and facing another divisional opponent with a record better than .500. There isn’t quite enough here for the Panthers to be worth betting, but if Thompson plays I may reconsider.

Update: Thompson and Gilmore are playing, while Calvin Ridley is a surprise inactive for the Falcons for personal reasons. Lock in +3 while you can. I would not bet +2.5. The money line at +130 makes sense as well.

Carolina Panthers 24 Atlanta Falcons 23 Upset Pick +130

Pick against the spread: Carolina +3

Confidence: Medium

Carolina Panthers at New York Giants: 2021 Week 7 NFL Pick

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Carolina Panthers (3-3) at New York Giants (1-5)

The Panthers started 3-0, but have fallen back to earth at 3-3. The schedule has gotten tougher, as their wins came against the Jets and Texans, two of the worst teams in the league, and the Saints, who were flat off of a huge week one win, while their recent losses have come to the Cowboys, Eagles, and Vikings. However, injuries have also been a big part of the problem and this team has legitimately seen it’s level of play fall off in recent weeks as a result of absences like feature back Christian McCaffrey, top cornerback Jaycee Horn, and top linebacker Shaq Thompson.

The Panthers schedule gets easier this week with a trip to New York to face the Giants, but the Giants aren’t as bad as the Jets or Texans, who were relatively competitive against the Panthers earlier this season. The Giants are just 1-5, but two of their losses have come by a combined four points, so they could easily have another win or two, while their blowout loss to the Cowboys was a tied game before quarterback Daniel Jones suffered a concussion that knocked him out for the game.

Overall, they rank 23rd in schedule adjusted first down rate, 22nd in schedule adjusted yards per play allowed, and 13th in special teams DVOA, not great, but also not in line with the worst teams in the league. The Giants are coming off their worst game of the season, losing 38-11 at home to the Rams, but betting a team coming off their worst game of the season tends to be a winning proposition as you can get good value, as we are in this game where the Giants are field goal home underdogs against an underwhelming opponent. The public is betting heavily on the Panthers as field goal road favorites because of recency bias, but my calculated line is at even. 

The Giants are also in a good spot as home underdogs immediately after being blown out as home underdogs, as teams cover at about a 59.3% rate in their second straight game as home underdogs after a loss by 14 points or more. Teams likely tend to be undervalued in that spot historically like the Giants are here and it seems to be easier for teams to compete with or better a superior team in their second of two home games than in the first. Between the line value and the good spot, the Giants are worth a play this week, as they have a good chance to pull the upset and we are getting a field goal cushion to work with if they don’t.

Update: The Giants surprisingly won’t have wide receiver Sterling Shepard, which hurts this offense, but I have already locked this pick in. The Giants aren’t a terrible bet even without Shepard, but I would have preferred if he played.

New York Giants 17 Carolina Panthers 16 Upset Pick +135

Pick against the spread: NY Giants +3

Confidence: Medium

Minnesota Vikings at Carolina Panthers: 2021 Week 6 NFL Pick

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Minnesota Vikings (2-3) at Carolina Panthers (3-2)

The Vikings are just 2-3, but their three losses have come by a combined 11 points, giving them a positive point differential of +4, despite the fact that the Vikings have faced one of the toughest schedules in the league, 2nd in terms of opponent’s DVOA. The Vikings have also missed some key players to injury that have since returned, with top linebacker Anthony Barr, starting left tackle Christian Darrisaw, and running back Dalvin Cook missing two games, four games, and four games respectively.

All three of those players will be in the lineup for this matchup with the Panthers, who, despite their 3-2 record, are significantly worse than every team the Vikings have faced except for the Lions. The Panthers got out to a 3-0 start, but they took advantage of facing the Jets and Texans, two of the worst teams in the league, who both kept the game relatively competitive, as well as the inconsistent Saints. 

Since that 3-0 start, they have lost key players to injury like top cornerback Jaycee Horn, stud feature back Christian McCaffrey, and every down linebacker Shaq Thompson and, with the schedule getting tougher, they have lost to the Cowboys in a game that was not as close as the final score, with the Cowboys winning the first down rate battle and yards per play battle by 7.09% and -1.99, respectively, and then they lost at home to the Eagles, who are middling at best. 

In their certain state, I have the Panthers 2.5 points below average, so we’re getting some line value with the Vikings as 2.5 point road favorites. My calculated line is Minnesota -3.5, which might not seem like much line value except for the fact that 1 in 6 games are decided by exactly a field goal. In a game in which the Vikings basically just need to cover to win, they are worth a play as they are the noticeably better team and should be able to take care of business, even on the road.

Minnesota Vikings 24 Carolina Panthers 20

Pick against the spread: Minnesota -2.5

Confidence: Medium

Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Philadelphia Eagles: 2021 Week 6 NFL Pick

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Tampa Bay Buccaneers (4-1) at Philadelphia Eagles (2-3)

The Buccaneers are obviously one of the best teams in the league, but they are dealing with more injuries than they were a year ago, when they were one of the healthiest teams in the league. In total, they are missing three week one starters from their secondary, top tight end Rob Gronkowski, and now the loss of one of the top linebackers in the league, Lavonte David, who will miss his first game of the season this week. The Buccaneers are coming off of a blowout win over the Dolphins, but the Dolphins are one of the worst teams in the league right now and could be 0-5, while the Buccaneers’ previous two games were a convincing road loss against the Rams and a near defeat against a middling Patriots team in New England.

Despite that, they are favored by a touchdown on the road against an Eagles team that has been better than most think this season. They are just 2-3, but their losses are all against above average teams in the 49ers, Chiefs, and Cowboys, while their two wins have come in blowout fashion against a below average Falcons team and a close win against a decent Panthers team.

My roster rankings have them as a middling team overall, especially with the re-addition of left tackle Jordan Mailata, who returned last week from a two-game absence, unsurprisingly their two least competitive games of the season (Philadelphia and Kansas City). Prior to his absence, the Eagles played the 49ers close and last week he returned for their victory over the Panthers.

They are still missing their top edge defender Brandon Graham, as well as a trio of starting offensive linemen, Lane Johnson, Brandon Brooks, and Isaac Seumalo, but they have better depth upfront than a year ago and are not a bad offensive line now with Mailata back. They are also getting good play from young quarterback Jalen Hurts and this young receiving corps, while also playing solid overall defense as well. My calculated line has the Buccaneers favored by just 3.5 points, so there is value with Philadelphia +7. This is worth a play.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers 24 Philadelphia Eagles 20

Pick against the spread: Philadelphia +7

Confidence: Medium

Philadelphia Eagles at Carolina Panthers: 2021 Week 5 NFL Pick

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Philadelphia Eagles (1-3) at Carolina Panthers (3-1)

The Panthers suffered their first loss of the season last week, but their record still shows them to be better than they’ve played, as their wins have come against the Texans and Jets, two of the worst teams in the league, and the very inconsistent Saints, while their loss came in a game against the Cowboys that wasn’t close and in which the Panthers lost the first down rate and yards per play battle by significant amounts (-7.09% and -1.99, respectively). They have a decent roster, but they are probably not a playoff caliber team, especially with the injured players they are currently missing, including top cornerback Jaycee Horn, stud feature back Christian McCaffrey, and every down linebacker Shaq Thompson.

Unfortunately, it doesn’t seem like anyone else is buying the Panthers either, as they are favored by just a field goal at home against the Eagles, who are also missing several key players with injury. Most notably they are missing their top edge defender Brandon Graham, as well as a trio of starting offensive linemen, Lane Johnson, Brandon Brooks, and Isaac Seumalo. However, the Eagles have better depth upfront than a year ago and are not a bad offensive line now that left tackle Jordan Mailata has returned and they are getting good play from young quarterback Jalen Hurts and this young receiving corps, while also playing solid overall defense as well. I have this line calculated as Carolina -1, so we’re getting some line value with the Eagles, but not quite enough for them to be worth betting.

Carolina Panthers 24 Philadelphia Eagles 23

Pick against the spread: Philadelphia +3

Confidence: Low

Carolina Panthers at Dallas Cowboys: 2021 Week 4 NFL Pick

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Carolina Panthers (3-0) at Dallas Cowboys (2-1)

The Cowboys have proven they have among the best offenses in the league. A year ago, they finished 13th in first down rate despite missing their starting quarterback and their top-3 offensive linemen for most of the season, including a 4th place rank through 4th games before the injury to Dak Prescott, and this season they have picked up right where they left off, leading the league in first down rate through 3 games this season. Their defense isn’t good, but they are less bad than the offense is good, they are better than a year ago, and offense is the more predictive side of the ball, so the Cowboys are in pretty good shape going forward. Overall, I have them ranked 10th, about 3.5 points above average.

The Panthers are 3-0, but I am not sold on them, as two of their wins have come against possibly the two worst teams in the league and not in overly convincing fashion, while their win over the Saints could easily be a fluke as a result of the Saints being flat off of a huge win the week before. Their defense could be for real, but I am not sold on Sam Darnold or this offensive line against tougher competition, especially without Christian McCaffrey. The Cowboys aren’t tougher competition on the defensive side, but it’ll be tough for this Panthers offense to match points with the Cowboys’ offense if the Cowboys offense can predictably have the edge over the Panthers’ largely untested defense.

I still have the Panthers about 2.5 points below average, giving us a calculated line of Dallas -8.5 at home, which means we’re getting good line value with the Cowboys as 4.5 point favorites. The Cowboys are also in a good spot because teams tend to carry over the momentum from a big Monday Night Football win, covering at about a 60% rate the week following a win by 20 or more points, which the Cowboys had over the Eagles last week. Without another great option this week, the Cowboys are my Pick of the Week.

Dallas Cowboys 31 Carolina Panthers 20

Pick against the spread: Dallas -4.5

Confidence: Pick of the Week

Carolina Panthers at Houston Texans: 2021 Week 3 NFL Pick

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Carolina Panthers (2-0) at Houston Texans (1-1)

Both of these teams are unappealing to bet this week. The Panthers are 2-0, but they beat a terrible Jets team by 5 and then got a Saints team that was predictably flat after an emotional week one victory and that was also missing a significant amount of their coaching staff. Their defense could continue being an above average unit, but I still don’t trust their quarterback or offensive line and they’re not the kind of team that should be favorites of more than a touchdown on the road against anyone.

On the other hand, the Texans have one of the worst rosters in the league and now, one of their few bright spots, quarterback Tyrod Taylor, is injured and will be replaced by raw rookie Davis Mills, who looked lost in relief of Taylor last week against the Browns, entering a tied game and losing by 10 in a game in which the Texans lost the first down rate battle by 11.26%. The Texans beat the Jaguars week one, but the Jaguars are probably one of the worst five teams in the league and that was with Taylor. 

Given the rest of this roster and how raw Mills is, this team reminds me of the winless 2017 Browns, who failed to cover in all but four games while being quarterbacked by Deshone Kizer and Kevin Hogan. For future betting purposes, I hope the Panthers are able to cover and win big against a terrible Texans team, so they remain overrated for future bets, but my numbers actually have the Texans as the right side at +9, even if barely. If this line was at -7.5 where it was earlier this week, I would take the Panthers. That’s how close this is for me and how little I have confidence in either side.

Carolina Panthers 20 Houston Texans 12

Pick against the spread: Houston +9

Confidence: None

New Orleans Saints at Carolina Panthers: 2021 Week 2 NFL Pick

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New Orleans Saints (1-0) at Carolina Panthers (1-0)

Probably the most surprising week one result was the Saints not only upsetting the Packers as 3.5-point underdogs, but blowing them out by a final score of 38-3, the most lopsided result of the week. Unsurprisingly, that led to the biggest line movement shift of the week, with this line going from even on the early line last week to now favoring the Saints by 3.5 points on the road in Carolina, a big deal considering about 1 in 4 games are decided by a field goal or less.

The Packers were probably not going to be as good as last year and this roster has only gotten worse since the start of the season, with stud left tackle David Bahktiari beginning the year on the physically unable to perform list and dominant edge rusher Za’Darius Smith going on injured reserve after playing just 18 snaps in the opener, but the Saints didn’t look to be in good shape to start the season either, with top wide receiver Michael Thomas, top interior defender David Onyemata, and talented kicker Will Lutz all out for the start of the season, so it was a very surprising result, especially for a Saints team that normally gets off to a slow start anyway, going just 4-17-1 ATS in weeks 1 and 2 from 2010-2020, as opposed to 94-58-7 ATS in other weeks. 

The Saints won the turnover battle by 3 against the Packers, which is a very inconsistent metric week-to-week, but that win wasn’t just because of the turnover margin, as they won the first down rate battle by 10.62% and likely would have won by multiple scores even if they played turnover neutral football. However, it still worries me that the result of that game was more because of the Packers not showing up than the Saints actually still being a high level team despite key absences and off-season losses. 

We’re also getting significantly more line value with the Panthers as 3.5-point home underdogs than we were a week ago on the early line and the Saints’ injury absence situation has only gotten worse, with talented center Erik McCoy, defensive starters Marcus Davenport and Kwon Alexander, and top cornerback Marshon Lattimore all expected to be out this week as well. The Saints could also be flat after last week’s win, as teams are just 15-25 ATS over the past thirty years after a win by 21 or more as home underdogs of 3 or more, including 5-10 ATS as favorites and 2-6 ATS as road favorites.

Add in the Saints’ habitually slow starts (even last season when they beat the Buccaneers by 11 week 1, they turned around and lost week two in upset fashion against the Raiders by 10) and there is a strong case for taking the Panthers this week. I think the Panthers are a bit of an overrated team too and we’re not getting quite enough line value with them to bet them confidently, but they should be the right side and could easily catch the Saints off guard and pull the outright upset.

New Orleans Saints 19 Carolina Panthers 17

Pick against the spread: Carolina +3.5

Confidence: Low

New York Jets at Carolina Panthers: 2021 Week 1 NFL Pick

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New York Jets (0-0) at Carolina Panthers (0-0)

Both of these teams are likely to miss the post-season, but the Panthers have the slight edge. That is reflected in this line, which favors them at home by 4, which is right around my calculated line. I have gone into both of these two teams in depth in my season previews, so I don’t feel there is anything more I have to say about either team in a game that is a coin flip from a spread perspective. My numbers have the Panthers as marginally more likely to cover, but there is nothing to bet on here.

Carolina Panthers 22 Philadelphia Eagles 17

Pick against the spread: Carolina -4

Confidence: None