Quarterback

The Patriots were once the standard of consistent excellence in the NFL, winning their division 17 times in a 20-year span from 2000-2019, with nine Super Bowl appearances, six Super Bowl victories, and the league’s best record during that stretch by a wide margin. However, things have quickly fallen apart since Tom Brady left during the 2020 off-season. The Patriots have made the post-season once in five years without him, with no division titles, no post-season victories, and a record of 33-51 over those five seasons. They have been especially bad over the past two seasons, bottoming out with a combined 8-26 record.

Brady’s departure obviously is a big part of why they have struggled in recent years, but their poor drafting in recent years has been a big problem as well and that dates back to even before Brady left. The last time this team drafted a player who made an All-Pro on either offense or defense was back in the 2016 NFL Draft, when they took Joe Thuney. The result is a roster that has been one of the worst in the league over the past two seasons.

Because they haven’t drafted well, the Patriots haven’t had players worth giving big second contracts to. The result of that is the Patriots entered this off-season with the most cap space in the league. The Patriots spent aggressively this off-season, but spending in free agency often means overpaying players that other teams didn’t want to keep, while the good teams build through the draft and use their cap space to keep their talent. That was largely the case for the Patriots this off-season.

That being said, there are some reasons to be optimistic for the Patriots. For one, while many of their off-season additions were overpays, they do make this team better. On top of that, the Patriots added an experienced head coach in Mike Vrabel, who consistently got the most out of his talent in Tennessee. Vrabel brings with him an experienced offensive coordinator in Josh McDaniels, whose success as an offensive coordinator in his career has led to him getting two head coaching opportunities. 

Probably the biggest reason to be optimistic about this team’s future is their talented young quarterback. As bad as the Patriots have drafted in recent years, they seem like they hit on the #3 overall pick in the 2024 NFL Draft, when they selected Drake Maye. Maye’s numbers weren’t impressive as a rookie, as he completed 66.6% of his passes for an average of 6.73 YPA, 15 touchdowns, and 10 interceptions, with 7.80 YPC and 2 touchdowns on 54 carries, but his supporting cast was a big part of the reason for his underwhelming production, as Maye himself finished with a solid PFF grade of 70.1. Now going into his second season in the league, with a better supporting cast and an improved coaching staff, Maye could easily take a big step forward, both in terms of his own level of play and particularly in terms of his level of production.

The Patriots actually drafted two quarterbacks in the 2024 NFL Draft, taking Joe Milton with a 6th round pick. He made a start in a meaningless week 18 game against the Bills’ backups last season and impressed, completing 22 of 29 for 241 yards and a touchdown. That could have been the start of Milton developing into a good backup for Drake Maye, but Milton reportedly felt he should have been the starter long-term instead and the Patriots were forced to deal him to the Cowboys for a swap of late round picks this off-season and will instead have a veteran in Joshua Dobbs behind Maye on the depth chart.

Dobbs is a mediocre backup option, completing 62.7% of his passes for an average of 5.98 YPA, 17 touchdowns, and 15 interceptions across 549 career pass attempts and 15 starts in eight seasons in the league, with just 3 of those starts being wins. He also doesn’t have much upside, going into his age 30 season, and would be a big downgrade from Maye if forced to make significant starts. Still, this quarterback room is going in the right direction with Drake Maye looking like a potential future franchise quarterback, something he could take another step forward towards becoming in his second season in the league in 2025.

Grade: B

Receiving Corps

One of the biggest off-season additions the Patriots made was signing wide receiver Stefon Diggs to a 3-year, 63.5 million dollar deal. Diggs has been one of the most accomplished wide receivers in the league over his 10 seasons in the league, surpassing 1000 yards receiving in every season from 2018-2023, while averaging 2.09 yards per route run for his career. He seemed like he was on his way to another 1000+ yard season in 2024, when he had a 47/496/3 slash line and 1.84 yards per route run through eight games, but he then tore his ACL and missed the rest of the season.

Not Diggs is not only coming off of a significant injury, but he’s also going into his age 32 season. Age 31 to age 32 the biggest single season drop off in terms of elite production probability, as a 32-year-old wide receiver is about half as likely to top 1000 yards receiving in a season as a 30-year-old wide receiver and about a third as likely as a 28-year-old wide receiver, a steep drop off in a 4-year span. It seems likely Diggs’ best days are behind him, but even at significantly less than his peak, he would still be a boost for a receiving corps that was arguably the worst in the NFL last season. He figures to be the de facto #1 wide receiver, even with his age and injury concerns.

The rest of this wide receiver group is unsettled. Demario Douglas is probably the favorite to be the #2 wide receiver. The 2023 6th round pick has been their top wide receiver by default over the past two seasons, averaging a 58/591/2 slash line and 1.53 yards per route run through two seasons in the league. Douglas is still only going into his age 25 season and may have further untapped upside, but he’s still pretty underwhelming as a #2 receiver.

Also in the mix for roles are third round rookie Kyle Williams, veteran journeyman free agent signing Mack Hollins, veteran holdover Kendrick Bourne, 2023 6th round pick Kayshon Boutte, and 2024 2nd round pick JaLynn Polk. Williams has upside, but might be too raw to contribute in a significant way as a rookie. Hollins has averaged just 1.07 yards per route run in eight seasons in the league, including just 0.92 yards per route run last season, and now heads into his age 32 season. Bourne averaged 1.76 yards per route run across his first three seasons with the Patriots, but suffered a torn ACL midway through his third season in 2023 and was not the same upon his return in 2024, averaging just 1.06 yards per route run. 

Bourne could be better in 2025, another year removed from his injury, but that’s not a guarantee, especially since he’s also getting up there in age, now heading into his age 30 season. Boutte was second on the team among wide receivers in receiving with a 43/589/3 slash line last season, but was part of the problem, with just 1.26 yards per route run, in the first significant action of his career. Polk has still upside, but struggled mightily with 0.35 yards per route run as a rookie. It’s possible that several of these wide receivers will play situational/rotational roles as the Patriots try to make the most of a wide receiver group that has some options, but is underwhelming overall.

The strength of this receiving corps last season was the tight end spot, where Hunter Henry and Austin Hooper finished with slash lines of 66/674/2 and 45/476/3 respectively on averages of 1.39 yards per route run and 1.65 yards per route run respectively. Henry’s performance last season was largely in line with his career average of 1.47 yards per route run, while Hooper also has a decent 1.37 yards per route run average for his career. 

The problem is both are now heading into their age 31 season and could start to decline. They’ll probably still be heavily involved in the offense, given the Patriots’ issues at wide receiver, but they might not be as efficient or effective as a year ago. The Patriots don’t have any promising young tight end options behind them on the depth chart, with 2024 7th round pick Jaheim Bell, who played just 84 mediocre snaps as a rookie, likely to be the #3 tight end. This receiving corps is better by default than last season, but is still an unsettled group that has a lot of concerns.

Grade: B

Offensive Line

As bad as the Patriots’ receiving corps was last season, their offensive line was arguably even worse, finishing 31st on PFF in pass blocking grade and 32nd in run blocking grade. A ridiculous twelve different offensive linemen made starts for the Patriots last season and only one of them finished above 60 on PFF. Fortunately, the Patriots made some additions to this offensive line this off-season that should be upgrades, even if some are likely to be upgrades by default.

The biggest addition they made was using the 4th overall pick on LSU left tackle Will Campbell. Campbell isn’t as good as most left tackle prospects selected in the top-5 and may ultimately have to move to right tackle or guard long-term, but he should still be an immediate upgrade at left tackle and is likely to be an above average starter somewhere on this offensive line long-term. Additionally, the Patriots signed veterans Morgan Moses and Garrett Bradbury in free agency and used a third round pick on Jared Wilson.

Moses will start at right tackle, where he has made 157 starts over the past ten seasons, with just six games missed due to injury over that stretch. Moses has also finished above 60 on PFF in all ten of those seasons, including six seasons over 70. However, Moses now heads into his age 34 season and his 63.3 PFF grade in 2024 was the lowest across that stretch. Additionally, all six of the games he has missed with injury over that stretch have come in the past two seasons. 

Moses’ best days are almost definitely behind him at this point and he could continue declining and/or miss more time with injury. However, he will still be a welcome addition, given how bad the Patriots were at right tackle last season. Moses will be backed up by Caedan Wallace, who was one of those right tackles who struggled last season, with a 44.1 PFF grade across 129 snaps as a rookie, but he was a 2024 3rd round pick and still has upside long-term.

Bradbury, meanwhile, will start at center. The 2019 1st round pick has never lived up to where he was drafted. He has finished above 60 on PFF in five straight seasons (72 starts), but he has maxed out at a 70.2 PFF grade, so he’s no more than a solid starter at best, especially now going into his age 30 season. Like Moses, he should still be a welcome addition. Jared Wilson is also primarily a center, but his best path to playing time as a rookie is probably at left guard, where Cole Strange is currently penciled in as the starter.

Strange is a former first round pick, selected 29th overall in 2022, but he was a reach when he was selected there and hasn’t shown anything in three seasons in the league to suggest that wasn’t the case. Strange did take a step forward between year one and year two, going from a 54.6 PFF grade to a 64.6 PFF grade, but then he suffered a brutal knee injury late in his second season that kept him out for most of his third season in 2024 and when he returned he only had a 48.6 PFF grade across 117 snaps. Another year removed from his injury, Strange could bounce back to his 2022 form, but that’s not a guarantee and, even if he does, it’s unlikely he ever proves himself to have been worth a first round pick.

At right guard, Mike Onwenu is the only holdover who didn’t struggle last season, with a 65.2 PFF grade in 17 starts. That was actually a down year for him, as the 2020 6th round pick received PFF grades of 84.3, 87.0, 79.3, and 71.5 across a total of 56 starts in his first four seasons in the league, prior to last season. Still only in his age 28 season, Onwenu has obvious bounce back potential in 2025. With Onwenu likely to bounce back, the additions of Campbell, Moses, Bradbury, and Wilson, and Cole Strange potentially bouncing back as well, this offensive line looks a lot better than a year ago, but this is still only an average unit at best.

Grade: B

Running Backs

The running back position wasn’t a position of weakness last season. Lead back Rhamondre Stevenson only averaged 3.87 yards per carry across 207 carries, but that was largely because he struggled to find running room on an overall poor offense. In three seasons in the league prior to last season, Stevenson averaged 4.54 yards per carry across 499 carries and, only in his age 27 season, he should bounce back on a better offense in 2025. However, the Patriots still used a high draft pick on another running back, TreVeyon Henderson, who they selected in the second round. Henderson might not take Stevenson’s lead back job as a rookie, but he figures to at least the second part of a one-two punch at running back, using his speed and athleticism to complement the size of the 6-0 227 Stevenson.

Stevenson’s addition likely means the end of Antonio Gibson having a significant role on this offense. He was actually great in limited action last season, significantly exceeding Stevenson’s average with a 4.48 YPC on 120 carries, while ranking 2nd among running backs with 3.91 yards per carry after contact and 1st among running backs with a 131.2 elusive rating. That was out of line with his career averages though, as he averaged 4.11 yards per carry, 2.76 yards per carry after contact, and maxed out at an elusive rating of 86.9 in his first four seasons in the league prior to last season. He would likely need an injury ahead of him on the depth chart to see any sort of significant role on this offense, but he’s great insurance as far as #3 backs go.

Gibson was also the Patriots’ best receiving back last season, averaging 1.26 yards per route run and taking 29 targets for a 23/206/0 slash line, as opposed to 0.62 yards per route run and a 33/168/1 slash line on 41 targets for Stevenson, but pass catching was a strength of Henderson’s game at the collegiate level and he is likely to take a big chunk of Gibson’s playing time on passing downs as well. Stevenson could also bounce back a little bit as a receiver, as his career average of 1.01 yards per route run significantly exceeds his 2024 average. This is a solid backfield overall.

Grade: B+

Interior Defenders

The Patriots weren’t as bad on defense as they were on offense last season, but they still made some big additions on this side of the ball this off-season. The biggest addition was interior defender Milton Williams, who they signed to a 4-year, 104 million dollar deal, making him the 3rd highest paid interior defender in the league. Williams has had solid PFF grades of 72.6, 69.7, and 70.1 over the past three seasons, playing the run pretty well and adding 9.5 sacks, 17 hits, and a 9.0% pressure rate, but he only has snap counts of 396, 494, and 500 over those three seasons, so he is a projection to the larger role the Patriots are almost definitely counting on him to play. Milton was a third round pick in 2021 and is still only going into his age 26 season, so he could easily have the upside to become an above average every down interior defender, but that’s not a guarantee and the Patriots are betting a lot of money to find out.

Williams will start next to Christian Barmore, who also has a lot of upside. A 2nd round pick in 2021, Barmore had PFF grades of 63.5 and 68.6 across snap counts of 598 and 327 in his first two seasons in the league, before breaking out with a 83.8 PFF grade across 750 snaps in 2023. Barmore was a high level pass rusher even in his first two seasons, combining for 12.5 sacks, 21 hits, and a 10.9% pressure rate in 44 games across the three seasons, and his run defense caught up with that in his third season. 

However, Barmore missed most of last season recovering from a serious illness and, while he is expected to return to full strength in 2025, that is not necessarily a guarantee. Even if he does return to full strength, he’s still a one-year wonder in terms of playing at the level he played at in 2023. Only in his age 26 season, he could be one of the better interior defenders in the league for years to come if he can return to form, but he comes with some downside as well.

Daniel Ekuale and Davon Godchaux were the Patriots’ top-2 interior defenders last season in terms of snaps played at 723 and 680 respectively, but they were a mediocre duo, with PFF grades of 60.3 and 51.6 respectively, and neither was retained this off-season. Jeremiah Pharms is their leader in terms of snaps played among returning interior defenders and he will likely still have a reserve role, but the 2022 undrafted free agent struggled with a 58.1 PFF grade across 457 snaps in the first significant action of his career in 2024 and he will likely continue struggling in 2025.

The Patriots also added Khyiris Tonga in free agency and used a 4th round pick on Joshua Farmer to give them additional depth at the interior defender position. Tonga has mostly been solid in his career, with PFF grades of 52.1, 77.9, 67.7, and 60.0 in four seasons since being selected in the 7th round in 2021, but he has only played snap counts of 217, 276, 188, and 229 in those four seasons, so he would be best as a deep reserve and would be a projection to a larger role if forced into one. Farmer, meanwhile, has upside, but is unlikely to make a significant positive impact in year one. This should be a solid position group overall, led by Christian Barmore, who is returning from a lost season, and Milton Williams, who was added in free agency.

Grade: B+

Edge Defenders

The Patriots also added Harold Landry and K’Lavon Chaisson in free agency, on deals worth 43.5 million over 3 years and 3 million over 1 year respectively. They will replace Deatrich Wise, who left this off-season after receiving a mediocre 59.7 PFF grade across 409 snaps last season, and they will take some of the burden off of Keion White and Anfernee Jennings, who were likely overstretched last season with snap counts of 830 and 831 respectively.

White will probably be the best of the bunch. A 2023 2nd round pick, White was decent as a rookie with a 64.2 PFF grade across 522 snaps before taking a step forward in year two with a 68.5 PFF grade, holding up against the run and totaling 5 sacks, 10 hits, and a 10.5% pressure rate. He could be even better in his third season in the league in 2024, especially if a reduced snap count makes him more efficient. Jennings, meanwhile, is best as a situational run stopper, with PFF grades of 71.4, 78.0, 85.9, and 73.0 against the run in four seasons in the league, but only a career 8.4% pressure rate, including just 2.5 sacks, 6 hits, and a 8.9% pressure rate in 2024.

Landry is also a better run defender than pass rusher, totaling 50.5 sacks, 54 hits, and a 9.8% pressure rate in 98 career games, while surpassing 60 on PFF in run defense grade in every season except his rookie season in 2018, including a 82.2 run defense grade last season (6th among edge defenders), which offset the 9 sacks, 6 hits, and 7.1% pressure rate he had as a pass rusher. I would expect him to be a similar player again in 2025, above average as a run defender and below average as a pass rusher. He rejoins former head coach Mike Vrabel, who he was with in Tennessee for the first six seasons of his career from 2018-2023.

Chaisson, meanwhile, is a bust as a 2020 1st round pick, finishing below average on PFF in each of his first four seasons in the league, on an average of just 336 snaps per season, but he seemed to take a step forward in his fifth season in the league, finishing with a 63.0 PFF grade across 508 snaps. It’s possible last season proves to be a fluke and, even if it wasn’t, it’s not exactly a great season, but he’s always had talent and is still only in his age 26 season, so it’s very possible he has permanently turned a corner and will remain at least a decent rotational player. This is a decent, if unspectacular edge defender group.

Grade: B

Linebackers

The Patriots also added Robert Spillane and Jack Gibbens to a linebacking corps that also returns their top-2 linebackers in terms of snaps played from last season, Jahlani Tavai (916 snaps) and Christian Elliss (514 snaps). Spillane signed for 33 million over 3 years, while Gibbens signed for just 1.3 million over 1 year. Spillane is likely locked into a starting role by virtue of his salary. Spillane has been one of the best run stopping linebackers in the league over the past three seasons, with PFF run defense grades of 77.3, 89.0, and 87.3 respectively, but he has also consistently struggled in coverage, with PFF coverage grades of 39.5, 59.0, and 48.8 respectively. Now in his age 30 season, he is who he is at this stage of his career and could start to decline in 2025. He might not play quite every down, coming off the field in some passing situations in a deep linebacking corps, but I expect him to play significant snaps as a starter.

Tavai had PFF grades of 73.5 and 86.6 across snap counts of 570 and 838 in 2022 and 2023 respectively, but he fell to a 54.7 PFF grade across 916 snaps in 2024. That’s largely in line with how Tavai played before joining the Patriots, when he had PFF grades of 61.6 and 32.1 on snap counts of 597 and 624 in 2019 and 2020 respectively. Tavai was a second round pick in 2019 and has always had upside, but it’s very possible he will never be the same linebacker he was under former head coach Bill Belichick. Tavai is still relatively young in his age 29 season and could have some bounce back potential, but he also could continue struggling.

Elliss actually played pretty well last season, with a 72.6 PFF grade across 514 snaps as a part-time player. That kind of came out of nowhere, as the 2021 undrafted free agent had only played 150 nondescript snaps in three seasons in the league prior to last season, so he could regress in 2025, but he could still earn a role at least as a coverage linebacker and has a good chance to be useful in that role. 

Gibbens, meanwhile, is a 2022 undrafted free agent signing from Mike Vrabel’s Titans. He had a decent 60.0 PFF grade across 214 snaps as a rookie, seemed to break out as a solid situational run stopper in 2023, with a 71.2 PFF grade across 628 snaps, and he seemed to be on his way to an even better season in 2024, when he had a 83.2 PFF grade across 234 snaps, but he suffered a season ending injury and wasn’t retained as a restricted free agent. Now in New England, he should at least be good depth, but could also earn a role as an early down linebacker. This isn’t a spectacular unit, but the Patriots have options in a deep group overall.

Grade: B+

Secondary

The Patriots’ secondary was the strength of their defense last season and should remain a strength in 2025. Christian Gonzalez, who the Patriots selected 17th overall in 2023, has been the best draft pick the Patriots have had in years. He flashed a lot of talent with a 80.8 PFF grade across 209 snaps in an injury shortened rookie season and translated that to a season-long role in 2024, when he ranked 12th among cornerbacks on PFF with a 76.0 grade. Still only going into his age 23 season, there is no reason to expect Gonzalez won’t develop into one of the top cornerbacks in the league for years to come.

The Patriots gave Carlton Davis a 3-year, 54 million dollar deal to hopefully upgrade the other cornerback spot, with Jonathan Jones leaving this off-season after a 60.7 PFF grade across 712 snaps. Davis finished last season with a 74.5 PFF grade and, while that was the best season of his career and he has been inconsistent throughout his career, he has also finished above 60 on PFF in all but one of his seven seasons in the league, since being selected in the 2nd round in 2018. He’s still relatively young in his age 29 season and should at least be a solid starter. The one concern with him is injuries, as he has missed at least two games due to injury in every season in the league, with 27 games missed total. 

Slot cornerback Marcus Jones remains. He’s a solid option when healthy, with PFF grades of 67.6, 64.2, and 70.2 in three seasons in the league since being selected in the 3rd round in 2022, but he’s missed at least two games in every season in the league, with 20 games missed total. The 586 snaps he played last season were a career high. If he can stay healthy, he should remain a solid slot option, still only in his age 27 season, but it seems likely he will miss more time with injury at some point this season.

Cornerback depth is an issue, especially given how injury prone some of the starters are. The top reserve options are 2023 7th round pick Alex Austin, who has been decent but unspectacular with PFF grades of 62.0 and 61.1 across snap counts of 216 and 234 in two seasons in the league, Marcellas Dial, a 2024 6th round pick who played 61 nondescript snaps as a rookie, and 4th round rookie Craig Woodson. One of those three would be forced into a significant role if injuries strike ahead of them on the depth chart and they could easily struggle in that significant role.

At safety, Jabrill Peppers leads the way and is one of the better safeties in the league when on the field. He was limited to 372 snaps in six games due to off-the-field problems last season, but he still had a 82.3 PFF grade, after posting a 87.3 PFF grade across 955 snaps in 2023 and a 75.0 PFF grade across 398 snaps in a situational role in 2022. Peppers is now heading into his age 30 season and could start to decline soon, but even if he declines somewhat, the Patriots’ defense will still benefit from likely having him on the field for significantly more games in 2025 than he played in 2024.

Peppers will likely start next to Kyle Dugger, who has been a solid starter for most of his career, but who struggled mightily in a down year last season, finishing with a 44.3 PFF grade across 759 snaps. Prior to last season, the 2020 2nd round pick had finished above 60 in all four seasons in the league, including PFF grades of 71.8 and 78.4 respectively in 2021 and 2022 respectively. Still only going into his age 29 season, Dugger has obvious bounce back potential in 2025. One concern for him is durability, as he has missed at least two games in four of five seasons in the league, with 10 total games missed in his career.

Luckily, the Patriots do have better depth at safety than at cornerback. Marte Mapu is a 2023 3rd round pick who took a step forward in year two, with a 63.4 PFF grade across 487 snaps, after a 50.0 PFF grade across 204 snaps as a rookie. Dell Pettus is a 2024 undrafted free agent who flashed potential with a 73.9 PFF grade across 341 snaps as a rookie last season. Jaylinn Hawkins, their top reserve last season, had a PFF grade of 60.1 across 613 snaps, but that was the first season above 60 on PFF for him in five seasons in the league since going in the 4th round in 2020. It wouldn’t be a surprise if Mapu or Pettus took over the top reserve role this season, as both are higher upside options than Hawkins. Overall, this is a well above average secondary, led by top cornerback Christian Gonzalez and top safety Jabrill Peppers.

Grade: A-

Kicker

Joey Slye was the Patriots’ kicker last season and he was below average, costing the Patriots about 5.42 points below average. In total, he made just 78.8% of his field goals last season. The Patriots let him go this off-season and replaced him with 6th round pick Andres Borregales, who was one of the most effective collegiate kickers throughout his career, surpassing 80% in field goal percentage in all four seasons, including an 18 of 19 final season in which he hit 7 of 8 from 40+ with a long of 56. It wouldn’t be hard for him to be an upgrade over Slye right away and he has the upside to be an above average kicker for years to come.

Grade: B

Conclusion

The Patriots overpaid many of their free agent additions this off-season, but between their free agent additions, what looks like a strong draft class, their new coaching staff, and quarterback Drake Maye going into his second season in the league, it’s not hard to see how this team could take a big step forward, after finishing just 4-13 last season. Perhaps the biggest thing working in their favor this season is that they have one of the weakest schedules in the league. That could be enough to propel a decent team to sneak into the post-season in the AFC.

Update: The surprise release of Jabrill Peppers and the uncertainty injury situation of cornerback Christian Gonzalez hurts this team’s playoff chances.

Prediction: 9-8, 2nd in AFC East