The Seahawks are very impressed with 4^th round pick Robert Turbin, as they should be. After all, he is 5^th in preseason rushing yards, with 151 yards and a touchdown on 34 carries, including 93 yards on 14 carries against the Chiefs last week. In an interview with the Seattle Times, Head Coach Pete Carroll said about Turbin, “He’s a really good football player. I’m so happy with the draft pick. We went out to get a guy who could complement Marshawn and could give us good, hard-nosed running, and he’s shown exactly that.”

It sounds like Turbin not only is the clear #2 back in Seattle behind Marshawn Lynch, but that he’ll eat in Lynch’s workload more than backups Leon Washington and Justin Forsett did last year (they combined for 99 carries). This is consistent with what we’ve seen in the preseason as Turbin has been sprinkled in with the 1st team. On top of that, Turbin could see a couple starts because Lynch is not always the most reliable when it comes to injuries.

The Seahawks figure to be one of the most conservative teams in the league this year with a dual threat 3^rd round rookie quarterback so there will be plenty of carries for Lynch and Turbin to go around. Wilson will also help open things up on the ground for them with his own running ability. Lynch is a low end RB1/high end RB2 and Turbin represents a very strong sleeper at his current ADP in the 13^th round, especially for Lynch owners as a handcuff.

If you’re interested in doing a fantasy football league with me, here’s the link (no draft date set yet, currently standard, with the option to become PPR with group vote). http://msn.foxsports.com/fantasy/football/commissioner/Registration/Private.aspx?league=55086&password=FanSpot2

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The Seahawks cut TO today in one of the least surprising moves of the offseason. When they signed TO earlier this month, I said he would either struggle this season or get cut and added that the best way this could end for the Seahawks would be if TO got cut before the season. Earlier this week, I wrote that the end was near for TO and now the end is here after another poor preseason performance. All in all, he was targeted 9 times in 2 preseason games, making 2 catches and dropping 3. From what I’ve heard, his practices weren’t much better.

Terrell Owens is one of the greatest receivers of all time, but father time is undefeated. The list of receivers to play in their age 39 season or later and have success starts and ends with Jerry Rice. Only 3 of the top-30 receivers all time played at this age or later and only Rice had any success (Charlie Joiner caught 34 passes for 440 yards and 2 touchdowns, while Joey Galloway caught 12 passes for 173 yards and didn’t score).

He was pretty much done in 2010 and wasn’t going to be any better 2 years and a torn ACL later, after a year out of football. In 2010, he did catch 72 passes for 983 yards and 9 touchdowns, but he did that on 132 targets (54.5%) and 10 balls targeted for him ended up getting intercepted. Carson Palmer was just forcing him the football, which is why he led the league in interceptions that year and the Bengals went 4-12. He also dropped 8 passes.

All the TO signing did was generate some media attention and take practice reps away from young receivers like Golden Tate, Kris Durham, Deon Butler, and Ricardo Lockette, so, even though they didn’t have to pay him anything, the signing was a failure. With about a week left before final cuts, don’t expect anyone to take a chance on him. Owens will eventually give up and officially retire and wait for the Hall of Fame to call, which it should.

If you’re interested in doing a fantasy football league with me, here’s the link (no draft date set yet, currently standard, with the option to become PPR with group vote). http://msn.foxsports.com/fantasy/football/commissioner/Registration/Private.aspx?league=55086&password=FanSpot2

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No official announcement has been made, but that’s just how Seahawks Head Coach Pete Carroll operates. However, after a strong performance in his 1^st preseason start, Russell Wilson is expected to be the week 1 starter for the Seahawks at quarterback. Wilson impressed against opposing teams’ backups in the Seahawks’ first two preseason games, completing 22 of 33 for 279 yards, 3 touchdowns, and an interception, while rushing for another 82 yards and a score on 8 carries.

He showed enough to earn the start in the Seahawks 3^rd preseason game, typically a game where you know who your starting quarterback is and let him play deep in the 3^rd quarter. The general feeling around the situation was that Wilson would get the week 1 start if he played well in his first action against 1^st teamers, playing against the Kansas City Chiefs.

Wilson did play well, completing 13 of 19 for 185 yards, 2 touchdowns, and no interceptions, while rushing for another 58 yards on just 2 carries. Wilson played 7 of the team’s 11 drives, certainly suggestive of a starting quarterback, leading the team at least 41 yards on each drive for a scoring opportunity (3 touchdowns, 3 field goals of 36, 39, and 45 yards, one missed field goal of 51 yards).

Matt Flynn, his primary competition for the job, did not play with what is being described as a sore elbow, with possible tendinitis, which doesn’t help his cause, even though the veteran had been seen as the favorite throughout the offseason over incumbent Tarvaris Jackson and 3^rd round rookie Wilson, on the strength of the 3 year, 19.5 million dollar deal with 10 million guaranteed he signed earlier in the offseason. Jackson, meanwhile, played the other 4 series, completing 3 of 5 for just 1 yard. He’s expected to be traded to a team in need of a veteran backup any day now.

Wilson will be one of five rookie starting quarterbacks week 1 this season. 4 would have been a record for any week since the merger. Wilson is also one of a whopping 10 1^st or 2^nd year quarterbacks who will start week 1 for their team. However, with the exception of the Bengals’ Andy Dalton, all of the other quarterbacks were first round picks. Wilson is the only rookie non-1^st round pick quarterback to be starting this season.

In fact, Wilson will become just the 5^th non-1^st round pick quarterback to get his team’s week 1 start since 1994.The results of the other 4 have not been pretty. Chris Weinke, a 4^th round pick, got the week 1 start for the Panthers in 2001 because he was 29. Still, he completed just 54.3% of his passes for an average of 5.4 YPA and 11 touchdowns to 19 interceptions that season.

Quincy Carter, a 2^nd round pick, got the week 1 start for the Cowboys that same season, completing just 51.1% of his passes for 6.1 YPA, and 5 touchdowns to 7 interceptions. Meanwhile, Kyle Orton, a 4^th round pick, got the start for the Bears in 2005, completing just 51.6% of his passes for an average of 5.1 YPA, 9 touchdowns, and 13 interceptions. The only one who had a good rookie season was Andy Dalton last year, a 2^nd round pick, as he completed 58.1% of his passes for an average of 6.6 YPA, 20 touchdowns, and 13 interceptions.

In fact, the history of non-1^st round pick quarterbacks is not pretty at all in the NFL. Wilson will be one of just 9 non-1^st round pick starting quarterbacks in the NFL this season (Andy Dalton, Drew Bress, Matt Schaub, Ryan Fitzpatrick, Tom Brady, Tony Romo, Matt Cassel and the winner of the John Skelton/Kevin Kolb battle are the other 8). That means 72% of the week 1 starting quarterbacks in the NFL this season will be former 1^st round picks.

If you look at the upper echelon starting quarterbacks, like the ones who made the playoffs last season, that number is 67% as only Brees, Dalton, Brady, and TJ Yates were starting quarterbacks for playoff teams last year, 4 of 12 (I include Yates even though he was a backup for an injured Matt Schaub because Schaub was also a non-1^st round pick). In 2010, that number held at 67%, as it was Matt Hasselbeck, Drew Brees, Matt Cassel, and Tom Brady bucking the trend.

NFL drafting is generally a crapshoot. However, the one thing NFL teams seem to be pretty foolproof at doing is not letting starting quarterbacks fall out of the 1^st round of the draft. Obviously, not all 1^st round pick quarterbacks work out, but it’s almost impossible to find a starting quarterback after the 1^st round. If you possess the baseline tools to be a starting quarterback in the NFL, you’re going to go in the 1^st round, even if your accuracy or footwork or mechanics needs a lot of work. Almost always, if a quarterback falls out of the 1^st round, it’s because there’s something wrong with him, something preventing him from being a starting quarterback in the NFL.

For Wilson, the book on him is simple. He’s got a plus arm, great athleticism, and possesses all the intangibles in the world. He’s a natural born leader, who stepped onto Wisconsin’s campus after flirting with being a professional baseball player and was named the team’s captain just 3 weeks later. He completed 72.6% of his passes for 10.3 YPA and 33 touchdowns to 4 interceptions last year and led Wisconsin to an 11-3 record, a Rose Bowl appearance, and didn’t lose by more than a touchdown all season.

However, he’s not a natural pocket passer and shows poor footwork in the pocket. He has much better arm strength and instincts on the run. He’s great at improvising, but in the NFL, you have to make throws from the pocket and when he’s asked to drop back and pass on a traditional play, he shows diminished arm strength. He’s got happy feet and flees the pocket when he doesn’t need to. He’s also short and has trouble seeing over the line of scrimmage.

Those are the reasons why he fell and typically those are things that prevent quarterbacks from being starters in the NFL. There are exceptions, but most likely, Wilson will fall just like most quarterbacks who fall out of the 1^st round, especially as a rookie. As well as he’s played this preseason, it’s important to remember that these are 3 preseason games, 2 of which were against guys who just fighting to make their rosters right now.

I’m baffled that the Seahawks wouldn’t at least try the veteran Matt Flynn first. Flynn is also a non-1^st round pick and fell because of pedestrian arm strength, but Flynn is at least a veteran, who does have some success in the NFL in limited action as a career backup. If he had struggled, sure, go ahead and go with the rookie, who hopefully by then has better adjusted to life in the NFL, but starting Wilson week 1 based on these 3 games is almost definitely going to be a decision that comes back to bite them, especially when you consider that Wilson will be playing behind a poor offensive line and with a poor receiving corps. It’s also worth noting that Wilson got, by far, the minority of the 1^st team snaps throughout the offseason and only made one pre-season start, which will hurt their offensive continuity and chemistry.

The Seahawks play in an easy division, have one of the league’s best home field advantages, and have a scoring defense that ranked 7^th in the league, allowing 19.7 per game last season. However, they’ll probably struggle to move the ball through the air and their running game, as much hype as Marshawn Lynch gets, actually ranked just 21^st in the league in rushing yards and 25^th in the league in YPC last season.

While they’ll probably have a top-10 defense once again, they’ll also probably have a bottom-10 offense once again (23^rd with 20.1 points per game last year) and that will almost definitely keep them out of the playoffs in a loaded NFC, unless we have any 2010 scenario where a team that wins 7 games wins the NFC West (unlikely). I’m a big fan of Pete Carroll as a coach, but I think the 7 games they’ve won in each of the last 2 seasons is a pretty reasonable expectation for this team again this year.

As for the fantasy implications for this move, Wilson has some intrigue as QB2 with upside because of his rushing ability. However, considering the history of non-1^st round pick rookie quarterbacks and rookie quarterbacks in general, I don’t really like his upside. He probably won’t throw for a high YPA (even Dalton last year averaged just 6.6 YPA) and the Seahawks ran one of the most conservative offenses in the league last year, passing just 509 times.

With a rookie quarterback under center, they’ll only get more conservative, especially since with a mobile, run happy quarterback like Wilson. As a passer, I don’t like his chances to even exceed the 3091 yards, 14 touchdowns, and 13 interceptions that Tarvaris Jackson threw for last season. He might if he plays all 16 games, but Pete Carroll loves constant competition at positions and likely wouldn’t hesitate to pull Wilson for Flynn, now one of the league’s most expensive backups, if he struggles. That could end up being a crushing blow to the young quarterback’s confidence (even more reason why Flynn should have been allowed to start first), create a divisive locker room, and hurt their offensive continuity and chemistry. Teams that switch quarterbacks midseason for reasons other than injuries almost never make the playoffs.

If you’re interested in doing a fantasy football league with me, here’s the link (no draft date set yet, currently standard, with the option to become PPR with group vote). http://msn.foxsports.com/fantasy/football/commissioner/Registration/Private.aspx?league=55086&password=FanSpot2

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According to a report from ESPN.com, the Seahawks have not heard anything about a potential Marshawn Lynch suspension and they are taking the no news as good news after Lynch’s DUI arrest last month. Lynch had been arrested 3 other times in his career and got a 3 game suspension in 2009, though all of his prior transgressions were in violation of the league’s personal conduct policy and this alleged offense was in violation of the league’s substance abuse policy.

Previous reports have also said that Roger Goodell wants to wait until the results of Lynch’s trial before determining punishment, which could very well not be until the 2013 season. Unlike Kenny Britt, Lynch has yet to be called up for a visit with the commissioner, which is good news. Lynch should be ready to go week 1 and play all 16 games if healthy.

I’d just be wary of buying too high on him. He runs behind a poor offensive line on a generally poor offense and he doesn’t catch a lot of passes. Plus, before last year, he didn’t really do much of note in the prior 2 years and, given his history, he could slack off now that he’s gotten paid. I’d let him be someone else’s problem in fantasy leagues unless he really fell.

If you’re interested in doing a fantasy football league with me, here’s the link (no draft date set yet, currently standard, with the option to become PPR with group vote). http://msn.foxsports.com/fantasy/football/commissioner/Registration/Private.aspx?league=55086&password=FanSpot2

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When the Seahawks signed Terrell Owens, it was certainly a very high profile signing. However, seemingly contrary to popular belief, TO is no lock to make the Seahawks’ roster, especially after a terrible showing in his 1^st preseason game, where he didn’t catch a ball on 5 targets and dropped a sure 46 yard touchdown. Sidney Rice has begun doing contact drills and seems like he’ll be ready to go week 1, while ESPN’s Mike Sando is reporting that Owens and Braylon Edwards are competing for one roster spot. NFL Network’s Jason La Canfora seconds this report by saying that Owens is “hardly assured” of a roster spot, according to team sources.

Owens is one of the greatest receivers of all time, but future time is undefeated. Of the top 30 leading receivers of all time, only 3 others have played into their age 39 season or later: Jerry Rice, Charlie Joiner, Joey Galloway. Only Rice (83/1139/9) was productive in his age 39 season. Joiner caught 34 passes for 440 yards and 2 touchdowns, while Galloway caught 12 passes for 173 yards and didn’t score. Owens is heading into his age 39 season this year.

He was done in 2010. Though he did catch 72 passes for 983 yards and 9 touchdowns, but he did that on 132 targets (54.5%) and 10 balls targeted for him ended up getting intercepted. Carson Palmer was just forcing him the football, which is why he led the league in interceptions that year and the Bengals went 4-12. He also dropped 8 passes. 2 years and one torn ACL later, he’s certainly not any better and didn’t look it in their first preseason game. My money is on Edwards winning that battle and Owens, who is owed no guaranteed money, being a final cut and eventually retiring.

If you’re interested in doing a fantasy football league with me, here’s the link (no draft date set yet, currently standard, with the option to become PPR with group vote). http://msn.foxsports.com/fantasy/football/commissioner/Registration/Private.aspx?league=55086&password=FanSpot2

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Could we have 5 rookie starting quarterbacks week 1? Well, 4 have already been named, Andrew Luck, Robert Griffin, Ryan Tannehill, and Brandon Weeden and a 5^th, the Seahawks’ Russell Wilson, will start in the team’s 3^rd preseason game this week. 3^rd preseason games are typically teams’ dress rehearsals for the regular season, when teams have their depth chart finalized. However, Wilson starting this week does not mean he will be the week 1 starter.

The Seahawks clearly have an unorthodox way of doing things. Not a lot of teams sign a quarterback to a deal with 10 million dollars guaranteed and then have him compete for the starting job, like they did with Matt Flynn. Because they’re so unorthodox, we should not assume that Wilson starting this week means he’ll start week 1. I mean when’s the last time you saw a team start one quarterback for the 1^st two preseason games and then started a different one in the 3^rd preseason game. Like I said, unorthodox.

Obviously Wilson has impressed them so far battling other teams’ 2^nd and 3^rd stringers and they want to see what he can do against 1^st stringers. If he plays well, he could definitely get the job. If he doesn’t, Flynn will probably start week 1. Wilson has completed 22 of 33 for 279 yards, 3 touchdowns, and an interception, while rushing for another 82 yards and a score on 8 carries. The Seahawks obviously really like the unorthodox styled quarterback as GM John Schneider compared him to Drew Brees and said that the 3^rd round pick was one of the “top three players” he scouted last fall. Matt Flynn’s grip on the starting job has been significantly loosened, but nothing is decided yet.

If you’re interested in doing a fantasy football league with me, here’s the link (no draft date set yet, currently standard, with the option to become PPR with group vote). http://msn.foxsports.com/fantasy/football/commissioner/Registration/Private.aspx?league=55086&password=FanSpot2

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Further proving that Matt Flynn will be the week 1 starter for the Seahawks, multiple reports have said that the Seahawks are looking to trade Tarvaris Jackson and will cut him if they can’t. These reports include ones from NFL Network’s Jason La Canfora and ESPN’s John Clayton. Clayton believes he will be traded as soon as possible as that he will not play another snap for the Seahawks this preseason regardless, as the Seahawks don’t want their potential trade asset to get hurt. La Canfora, meanwhile, reveals that Jackson would be willing to take a pay cut in a trade, which would almost definitely be a requirement as his 4 million dollar salary is way too much for a pure backup.

Pro Football Talk also is reporting that Jackson, the incumbent starting quarterback, was never a serious contender for the starting job, which makes sense. The Seahawks were clearly less than thrilled with Jackson, who led them to a 7-9 record despite being supported by one of the better defenses in the league (7^th at 19.7 points per game allowed). That’s why they gave Matt Flynn 10 million guaranteed as a free agent acquisition and used a 3^rd round pick on Russell Wilson. That’s not something you do if you like your incumbent starting quarterback.

Jackson completed 60.5% of his passes for an average of 6.9 YPA and 14 touchdowns to 13 interceptions last year, actually up from his career averages. In his career, the former 2^nd round pick has completed just 59.4% of his passes for an average of 6.7 YPA and 38 touchdowns to 35 interceptions. He’d be a solid backup, but you’re in trouble if he’s your starter for an extended period of time.

One logical destination, Arizona, has been ruled out by beat writer Kent Somers of the Arizona Republic. The most logical remaining destination would seem to be Green Bay, who runs a similar west coast style offense to the Seahawks. They are in the market for a veteran backup after Graham Harrell, who has never attempted a regular season pass, struggled in an extended tryout this week, completing just 12 of 24 for 100 yards and 2 interceptions against the Browns 2^nd and 3^rd string defenders. Jackson might be worth a late round pick to them, but they’re also known to be interested in the Browns’ Colt McCoy, who is also available for trade. If the Seahawks can’t trade Jackson, they’ll just cut him, which is a strong possibility.

The Packers are the former home of Matt Flynn, once their primary backup and now the Seahawks’ expected starting quarterback. They have not officially named a starting quarterback, but Flynn has gotten the start in each of their 1^st two preseason games and his contract, 3 years, 19.5 million with 10 million guaranteed, has said starter all along. Wilson, meanwhile, will be the primary backup. The 3^rd round pick rookie has impressed this preseason, completing 22 of 33 for 279 yards, 3 touchdowns, and an interception, while rushing for another 82 yards and a score on 8 carries. His strong play has allowed the Seahawks to move on from Jackson and he’ll put pressure on Flynn if he struggles in his first year as a starter.

If you’re interested in doing a fantasy football league with me, here’s the link (no draft date set yet, currently standard, with the option to become PPR with group vote). http://msn.foxsports.com/fantasy/football/commissioner/Registration/Private.aspx?league=55086&password=FanSpot2

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