Steelers

Houston Texans at Pittsburgh Steelers: 2025 AFC Wild Card Round Pick

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Houston Texans (12-5) at Pittsburgh Steelers (10-7)

Both of these teams finished the regular season significantly worse than their record would suggest in terms of schedule adjusted efficiency, which is based on first down rate differential and yards per play differential, both of which tend to be much more predictive than win/loss record. The Texans finished 14th at +0.58, while the Steelers finished 22nd at -1.65. Both teams benefited significantly from the turnover margin, with the Texans ranking 2nd at +17 and the Steelers ranking 4th at +12, but turnover margins tend to be very inconsistent on a week-to-week basis. On average, teams that finish the regular season with a turnover margin of +10 or better have an even turnover margin in the post-season and, as a result, cover the spread at just a 46.7% rate, including 45.2% as favorites.

However, it seems to be only the Steelers that are viewed as not as good as their record by the public, as the Texans are favored by 3.5 points in Pittsburgh. With only about two points between these two teams in schedule adjusted efficiency, we are getting great value with the Steelers at that number. The Steelers are also historically a great bet as home underdogs in the Mike Tomlin era, going 20-9-4 ATS and 18-15 straight up, outperforming the spread on average by 3.7 points, more than the gap between these two teams in schedule adjusted efficiency. I think there is a good chance the Steelers pull the straight up upset at home and, even if they don’t, I like getting 3.5 points to play with, with about a quarter of games decided by 3 points or fewer.

Pittsburgh Steelers 19 Houston Texans 17 Upset Pick +150

Pick against the spread: Pittsburgh +3.5

Confidence: High

Baltimore Ravens at Pittsburgh Steelers: 2025 Week 18 NFL Pick

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Baltimore Ravens (8-8) at Pittsburgh Steelers (9-7)

The Browns were my top pick last week as 4.5-point home underdogs against the Steelers, but that was because the Steelers were missing a lot of key personnel and were in the type of spot where they have historically struggled under head coach Mike Tomlin, going 7-24 ATS as road favorites of 3.5 or more after a win since his first season in 2007. Fortunately for the Steelers, the opposite is also true, as they are 9-2 ATS and straight up as home underdogs of 3.5 or more during that stretch, including 4-1 ATS after a loss.

The Steelers are also healthier this week. They are still without top wide receiver DK Metcalf and also lost talented tight end Darnell Washington last week, but they get back arguably their best offensive lineman Isaac Seumalo, stud edge defender TJ Watt, and cornerback James Pierre, who has been their best cornerback this season when in the lineup. This isn’t a big play, but I like the Steelers to bounce back with a more complete team in a better spot.

Baltimore Ravens 19 Pittsburgh Steelers 17

Pick against the spread: Pittsburgh +4

Confidence: Medium

Pittsburgh Steelers at Cincinnati Bengals: 2025 Week 7 NFL Pick

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Pittsburgh Steelers (4-1) at Cincinnati Bengals (2-4)

The Steelers are 4-1, but they have been pretty underwhelming so far this season. They are negative in both first down rate differential (-1.39%) and yards per play differential (-0.08), despite a below average schedule. Their turnover margin of +7 is 3rd best in the NFL, but turnover margins tend to have high week-to-week variance. Fumble margins in particular have very high week-to-week variance and the Steelers are a league leading +5 in that metric. That is despite the fact that they have only caused 2 more fumbles than they have committed, as they have recovered an unsustainably high 83.3% of fumbles in their games.

The Steelers’ schedule doesn’t get any harder this week, as the Bengals as one of the worst teams in the league, but this is also a spot in which the Steelers tend to disappoint, as they are 22-38 ATS as road favorites of a field goal or more in the Mike Tomlin era, including 10-26 ATS after a win the previous week. Unfortunately, I don’t think we are getting enough line value with the Bengals at +5.5 for them to be worth betting, unless we get some good news on Trey Hendrickson, the Bengals’ best defensive player, who didn’t practice all week. If the line shifts significantly or he is able to play at close to 100%, I will update this pick.

Early bet locks: NO +5, DEN -7

Pittsburgh Steelers 21 Cincinnati Bengals 17

Pick against the spread: Cincinnati +5.5

Confidence: Low

Minnesota Vikings vs. Pittsburgh Steelers: 2025 Week 4 NFL Pick

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Minnesota Vikings (2-1) vs. Pittsburgh Steelers (2-1) in Dublin

The Steelers are 2-1, but they have a negative point differential at -5, despite recovering all eight fumbles that have occurred in their three games. Recovering fumbles is a statistically random event and recovering eight in a row has a probability of about 0.4%. Like anything, there can be outliers, but the Steelers have actually been below 50% in terms of fumble recovery rate in three of the past four seasons, so there is no reason to expect this to continue. In terms of first down rate differential and yards per play differential, which are much more predictive and predictable, the Steelers rank 30th and 29th respectively at -6.17% and -1.30 respectively. The Vikings, meanwhile, are positive in both of those metrics at +0.68 and +1.69% respectively. 

The Vikings are favored in this game, but only by 2.5 points. My calculated line has the Vikings favored by 6 in this neutral site game, so we’re getting a lot of line value with them. True 6-point favorites have about a 62.46% chance of covering as 2.5-point favorites. On top of that, favorites tend to cover in neutral site international games historically, going 37-21 ATS all-time, better teams tend to be better prepared for the unusual circumstances. Getting good line value with a team that is in a good spot as well makes for a strong betting situation, so I like the Vikings a lot this week. This is my Pick of the Week.

Minnesota Vikings 24 Pittsburgh Steelers 17

Pick against the spread: Minnesota -2.5

Confidence: Pick of the Week

Pittsburgh Steelers 2025 NFL Season Preview

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Quarterback

Since Ben Roethlisberger retired at the end of the 2021 season, the Steelers have started five quarterbacks in three seasons, none of whom have established themselves as a long-term starter. Add in the fact that Roethlisberger either struggled or was injured in his final three seasons in the league and it’s been six seasons since the Steelers last had good quarterback play. The Steelers have still finished .500 or better in all six of those seasons though, with four playoff appearances, on the strength of their defense. However, in all four of those playoff appearances they have been one and done, with their quarterback play being a significant limiting factor once they make the post-season.

This off-season, the Steelers started over at the quarterback position again, letting both Russell Wilson and Justin Fields, who made starts for them last season, leave as free agents. To replace them, their first move was to bring back Mason Rudolph, who spent 2018-2023 with the Steelers, but who was mostly a backup during that stretch, making just 13 starts, with just a 86.9 QB rating in those starts. Rudolph spent last season in Tennessee, making another 5 starts, but faring even worse with a 80.1 QB rating. The Steelers then used a 6th round pick on a developmental prospect in Will Howard, but their most notable quarterback addition was their third addition, as they signed future Hall of Famer Aaron Rodgers, who will start for them this season, with Rudolph as the backup and Howard as the third string.

The Steelers’ strategy is to hope Rodgers will put them over the top after all of their recent first round exits. There are a few problems with that strategy, however. For one, Rodgers is not nearly the quarterback he used to be. Rodgers played well into his late 30s, winning back-to-back MVPs in his age 37 and 38 seasons in 2020 and 2021, with PFF grades of 94.5 and 89.6 and QB ratings of 121.5 and 111.9 in those two seasons respectively, but he fell off pretty significantly in his age 39 season in 2022, with a QB rating of 91.1, the worst of his career as a starter, and a 77.7 PFF grade, the second worst of his career as a starter. 

In 2023, he missed all but 4 snaps with a torn achilles and then, upon his return in 2024, he continued playing at a similar level as 2022, with a PFF grade of 77.8 (15th among quarterbacks) and a QB rating of 90.5. Both of his 2022 and 2024 QB ratings are actually lower than the 94.8 QB rating the Steelers had as a team in 2024. Now in his age 42 season, Rodgers could easily continue declining and, in a best case scenario, he’ll probably play comparably to how he played in 2022 and 2024, which isn’t really an upgrade under center for the Steelers.

The other problem is the Steelers’ defense isn’t quite what it has been in recent years, finishing the regular season 14th both in yards per play allowed and first down rate allowed last season. In fact, despite their 10 wins and their post-season appearance, the Steelers finished last season 23rd in yards per play differential and 26th in first down rate differential, which are much more predictive on a year-to-year basis than win/loss record. The Steelers primarily had success last season because they ranked 2nd in the NFL with a +16 turnover margin, but turnover margins have next to no correlation on a year-to-year basis. Because of that, the Steelers are starting from a much lower base point than their 2024 record suggests, so, even if Rodgers is an upgrade at quarterback, which is unlikely, the Steelers won’t necessarily win more games as a result of that. This is still an underwhelming quarterback room.

Grade: B

Receiving Corps

The Steelers made other significant changes on offense this off-season as well. At wide receiver, they traded for DK Metcalf and traded away George Pickens, opting to extend Metcalf on a 4-year, 132 million rather than giving a similar deal to Pickens, with both going into the final year of their contract. This is essentially a lateral move, even though the Steelers paid a 2025 2nd round pick for Metcalf and got back a 2026 3rd round pick for Pickens. Pickens has averaged a higher yards per target in his career (9.70 vs. 8.71), despite worse quarterback play, and is significantly younger, going into his age 24 season, while Metcalf is going into his age 28 season, but Metcalf has a slightly higher yards per route run average (1.90 vs. 1.83) and has received better PFF grades overall, finishing at 69.7, 82.7, 80.9, 75.3, 80.0, and 74.3 in six seasons in the league, while Pickens has finished at 68.8, 75.3, and 76.9 in his three seasons in the league.

For a while, it looked like the Steelers would keep both in 2025, which, though it would have been expensive, definitely would have benefited this offense, as the Steelers now still have the same wide receiver depth issues that they had a year ago, when their #2 wide receiver Calvin Austin had just a 36/548/4 slash line and 1.45 yards per route run on 58 targets. Their #3 wide receiver Van Jefferson was even worse, with a 24/276/2 slash line and 0.72 yards per route run on 40 targets. 

Austin, a 2022 2nd round pick who only averaged 0.79 yards per route run in his first two seasons in the league prior to last season, would be best as a #3 receiver, especially since he is only 5-8 162, but he will probably be their de facto #2 receiver by default again this season. Jefferson is gone, which is addition by subtraction, but his replacement Robert Woods is unlikely to be significantly better. Woods has a career 1.53 yards per route run average, but that has fallen to 1.14, 1.02, and 1.05 over the past three seasons respectively and he is now heading into his age 33 season. 

Woods will likely face competition for the #3 receiver job from Roman Wilson, who played just 5 snaps and didn’t catch a pass as a rookie, but who at least has upside as a 2024 3rd round pick. Also in the mix for a reserve role is Scotty Miller, who played 209 snaps last season and averaged just 0.77 yards per route run. He has been better than that in his career, but his career yards per route run average is still just 1.21 and he has just 453 receiving yards total over the past four seasons, so, even in a thin position group, he is best as a deep reserve.

With all of the Steelers’ issues at wide receiver last season, they ranked 8th with 26.4% of their targets going to tight ends and tight ends figure to remain a big part of the offense again in 2025. Unfortunately, that position group isn’t good enough in the passing game to make up for their issues at wide receiver. Pat Freiermuth, their starting tight end, finished last season with a 65/653/7 slash line on 78 targets with 1.46 yards per route run. That is largely in line with his averages through four seasons in the league, as he has averaged a 55/548/5 slash line on an average of 76 targets with 1.41 yards per route run, since being selected in the second round of the 2021 NFL Draft.

Freiermuth will continue being backed up by Darnell Washington, an above average run blocker who also added a 1.29 yards per route run average and a 19/200/1 slash line on 25 targets in a limited role last season. That was a big upgrade from his rookie season, when the 2023 3rd round pick only averaged 0.44 yards per route run. He’s still inexperienced, but could easily remain an above average #2 tight end, with the ability to block and also contribute a little bit in the passing game. The Steelers also have Connor Heyward, who played 206 snaps as the #3 tight end last season, but he averaged just 0.69 yards per route run and has just a 1.06 yards per route run average in three seasons in the league. This is still an overall underwhelming receiving corps.

Grade: B

Running Backs

Running backs were also a big part of the Steelers’ passing game last season, as they ranked 2nd in the league with 23.7% of targets going to running backs. Jaylen Warren and Najee Harris split targets pretty evenly, with 47 and 48 respectively, and Warren was slightly more productive, with a 38/310/0 slash line and 1.44 yards per route run, as opposed to a 36/283/0 slash line and 1.29 yards per route run for Harris. As runners, Harris led the team with 263 carries, as opposed to 120 for Warren, but Warren was the more efficient back, with 4.26 YPC and a 50.0% carry success rate, as opposed to 3.97 YPC and a 43.7% carry success rate for Harris. 

Harris wasn’t retained as a free agent this off-season and the Steelers will try to replace him with third round rookie Kaleb Johnson and veteran free agent addition Kenneth Gainwell. Johnson is a similar power back to Harris, but only caught 29 passes in his collegiate career, while Gainwell has a decent 1.00 yards per route run average as a passing down specialist in his career, but only has 280 carries in four seasons in the league. Even with Johnson and Gainwell both being added, it’s likely the Steelers will be giving a bigger role to Jaylen Warren, both as a rusher and a receiver.

Warren is a 2022 undrafted free agent and is a projection to a larger role, with 473 touches in three seasons in the league and a max of 210 touches in a season, but he has a lot of upside. In fact, last season was actually a down year for him as a runner, as he has a career 4.84 yards per carry average and a career 50.6% carry success rate. He figures to have a new career high in touches this season and has a good chance to be effective in that role, while Johnson will rotate in on some running downs, especially in short yardage, and Gainwell will rotate in on some passing downs. Overall, it’s a solid backfield that fits well together and that has a lot of upside if Warren can continue playing at the level he has played at throughout his career, now in a bigger workload.

Grade: B

Offensive Line

On the offensive line, the biggest change was the loss of left tackle Dan Moore in free agency, but he was a marginal starter with a 67.2 PFF grade in 17 starts and the Steelers have an obvious replacement in 2024 1st round pick Troy Fautanu, who missed all but 55 snaps in his rookie season due to injury, but has clear potential, now healthy going into his second season in the league. He comes with some downside, but it wouldn’t surprise me at all if he ended up being an upgrade over Moore.

Fautanu will start opposite another former first round pick, 2023 14th overall pick Broderick Jones. Jones hasn’t lived up to expectations yet, finishing with season-long PFF grades of 60.7 and 58.5 across 27 total starts in two seasons in the league, primarily at right tackle, and he actually started last season on the bench before Fautanu got hurt, but he still has upside going into his third season in the league and could easily take a step forward in 2025. 

It’s unclear which of Fautanu and Jones will start on the left side and which will start on the right side as both have the ability to play both positions, but, either way, they will be the starters at tackle this season. They have a high upside, as recent high draft picks, but both come with downside as well, as Fautanu is coming off of a major injury and has one career start, while Jones has been mediocre thus far in his career. Depth is also an issue behind them, as swing tackle Calvin Anderson has made just 14 starts in six seasons in the league, with just two seasons above 60 on PFF.

The Steelers also didn’t retain right guard James Daniels this off-season. He excelled with a 92.9 PFF grade last season, but he only played four games due to injury, so his departure isn’t a huge loss. In his absence last season, Mason McCormick made 14 starts and struggled with a 57.7 PFF grade. McCormick will remain a starter this season, due to the lack of a better option, and he could be better, as he was only a 4th round rookie last season, but his improvement is not a guarantee. If he continues to struggle, the only alternative the Steelers have is Spencer Anderson, a 2023 7th round pick who struggled with a 53.2 PFF grade in the first four starts of his career last season. It’s unlikely he would be an upgrade, even over the mediocre McCormick, and, even as a reserve option, Anderson is underwhelming.

Opposite McCormick at left guard, Isaac Seumalo remains as the starter. He had a solid 67.6 PFF grade in 13 starts last season, but that was actually the second lowest grade of the seven seasons he’s been a primary starter in his career and he’s now heading into his age 32 season, so he could decline further this season. He’s also had durability issues in his career, missing time in all but two of nine seasons in the league, with 37 games missed total. The odds of him declining and/or missing significant time in 2025 are fairly high.

The Steelers’ best starter who made it through the season healthy last season was another rookie, center Zach Frazier, one of three draft picks from the 2024 class expected to start for the Steelers in 2025. A second round pick, Frazier finished his rookie season with a 76.8 PFF grade in 15 starts and could easily have a similar or even better season again in 2025. He’s the highlight of an overall underwhelming offensive line.

Grade: B-

Interior Defenders

As I mentioned, the Steelers’ defense was solid, but not elite last season. Their personnel is largely the same in 2025, with just 3 of the 14 players who played at least 300 snaps on this defense last season no longer on the team. However, one concern is the age of a couple of their top players, most notably interior defender Cameron Heyward, who heads into his age 36 season. Heyward turned back the clock last season with a dominant year, finishing with a 90.3 PFF grade across 779 snaps, playing at a high level against the run and as a pass rusher, with 8 sacks, 14 hits, and a 11.7% pressure rate.

That was Heyward’s seventh season above 80 on PFF in his last eight seasons, but the one exception was a 71.9 PFF grade on 442 snaps in 11 games in 2023 and, given his age, it wouldn’t be a surprise if his 2025 season was more similar to his 2023 season than his 2024 season. With Heyward aging, the Steelers felt it was important to add a long-term replacement, using their first round pick on Derrick Harmon. In the short-term, Harmon figures to take over the role left behind by free agent departure Larry Ogunjobi and, considering Ogunjobi had just a 49.4 PFF grade across 495 snaps, it wouldn’t be hard for Harmon to be an upgrade, but Harmon might not be good enough as a rookie to offset a potential significant decline from Heyward.

The Steelers also have Keeanu Benton, a 2023 2nd round pick who has shown some promise through two seasons in the league, with PFF grades of 74.8 and 68.2 across snap counts of 483 and 641 respectively. Benton had just 2 sacks in those two seasons, but he added 16 quarterback hits and a 6.9% pressure rate, while holding up well against the run. Still only in his age 24 season, it wouldn’t be a surprise to see him have a career best year in his third season in the league in 2025.

With Heyward, Harmon, and Benton likely to play the vast majority of the interior defender snaps for the Steelers in 2025, additional depth is likely to only be needed in case of injury to one of their top-3, but that’s definitely a possibility. Outside of their top-3, the Steelers’ best interior defender is probably free agent addition Daniel Ekuale, who has finished above 60 on PFF in three straight seasons, including a 60.3 PFF grade across 723 snaps last season. He only had a 2.4% pressure rate last season, but played well against the run. He’s going into his age 31 season, but still has a good chance to be a capable reserve.

Additional reserve options include Isaiahh Loudermilk, a 2021 5th round pick who has finished below 60 on PFF in all four seasons in the league, on an average of 202 snaps per season, and 5th round rookie Yahya Black, but both would likely struggle and fortunately would only see significant snaps in case of emergency. This is a talented position group overall, but Cameron Heyward is highly unlikely to repeat last season’s dominant campaign.

Grade: A-

Edge Defenders

Along with Heyward, another Steelers defender who had an elite season last season was TJ Watt, with a 92.2 PFF grade across 939 snaps, but he too is getting up there in age, going into his age 31 season. His age isn’t nearly as big of a concern as Heyward, but he could still decline noticeably, which would have a negative effect on this defense as a whole. Watt is still likely to play at a pretty high level even if he declines though, as he’s starting from a very high base point. He’s finished above 80 on PFF in six straight seasons, including four seasons above 90. Also a high level run defender, Watt has totaled 88 sacks, 107 hits, and a 13.7% pressure rate in 90 games over the past six seasons, while winning the 2021 Defensive Player of the Year award. Even if he’s not at his peak form, he should remain one of the best edge defenders in the league.

Alex Highsmith, the Steelers’ other starting edge defender, is also coming off of a high level season, missing six games with injuries, but receiving a 89.5 PFF grade across 525 snaps in 11 games. Equally good as a pass rusher and a run defender, Highsmith had 6 sacks, 9 hits, and a 16.1% pressure rate last season, despite the missed time due to injury. That performance didn’t come out of nowhere either, as he had a 90.3 PFF grade across 909 snaps in 17 games in 2023, while compiling 7 sacks, 12 hits, and a 13.8% pressure rate. Still in his prime in his age 28 season, Highsmith should remain a high level edge defender in 2025 and, if Watt declines, Highsmith could potentially take over as the Steelers’ top edge defender.

With Watt and Highsmith being high level players who play every down, the Steelers don’t have much need for depth at the edge defender position, but top reserve Nick Herbig showed a lot of potential last season too, with a 81.9 PFF grade across 416 snaps in 13 games, including 236 snaps in five starts in Highsmith’s absence. As a pass rusher, he had 5.5 sacks, 6 hits, and a 11.9% pressure rate, despite the limited playing time. A 2023 4th round pick, Herbig also flashed a lot of potential in a very limited role as a rookie with a 80.7 PFF grade across 191 snaps. 

Herbig would be a projection to a larger role, but he has the talent to be an above average starter for most teams and, as a reserve, he is one of the best in the league. The Steelers also further added to their depth this off-season by using a 4th round pick on Jack Sawyer, though he would likely need an injury ahead of him on the depth chart to see more than a few snaps per game. This is a deep and talented edge defender group overall.

Grade: A

Linebackers

At linebacker, the Steelers were hoping for a big year out of Patrick Queen, who they signed to a 3-year, 41 million dollar deal last off-season. Queen was a first round pick by the Ravens in 2020 and finished with PFF grades of 70.0 and 73.1 in his final two seasons in Baltimore, while playing every down, with snap counts of 1,024 and 1,120 respectively. However, he regressed to his pre-2022 form in 2024, finishing with a 58.5 PFF grade across 1,091 snaps. Queen is only going into his age 26 season, so he has obvious bounce back potential, even if that’s not a guarantee.

Fortunately, the Steelers got good play at the other linebacker position from a platoon of Elandon Roberts (77.2 PFF grade across 478 snaps) and Payton Wilson (75.3 PFF grade across 493 snaps). Roberts was not retained as a free agent this season, so they are hoping Wilson, who was the passing down specialist last season, can continue playing well in an every down role. Wilson was a 3rd round pick in 2024 and received PFF grades above 60 both as a run defender and in coverage, so he has the potential to be a good every down player in his second season in the league in 2025, but he’s still a projection to that larger role. 

If Wilson proves incapable of being an every down player, the Steelers would likely turn to Cole Holcomb to replace Roberts in a situational role. Holcomb didn’t play a snap in 2024 while working back from a gruesome knee injury suffered in week 9 of the 2023 season, but he has finished above 60 in run defense on PFF in all five healthy seasons of his career and he’s still only going into his age 29 season, so he could be a useful situational player if he has recovered close to his old form, though that’s obviously a question mark, given the nature of his injury. The Steelers are hoping he can just be a reserve and that Wilson will be able to break out as an every down player in his second season in the league. 

The Steelers also signed Malik Harrison, a 2020 3rd round pick of the Ravens, but he has played just 250 snaps per season in five seasons in the league, with a max of 371 snaps played in a season and three seasons below 60 on PFF, so he was just signed to be a reserve. The Steelers have a high upside starting linebacker duo of Patrick Queen and Payton Wilson and an intriguing backup option in Cole Holcomb, but all three come with downside, with Queen coming off of a down year, Wilson never having played an every down role, and Holcomb having not played in a year and a half due to a brutal injury.

Grade: B+

Secondary

The Steelers also got solid play out of their safeties last season, with Minkah Fitzpatrick and DeShon Elliott receiving PFF grades of 68.4 and 70.2 in 14 starts and 17 starts respectively. For Fitzpatrick, last season was actually a down year, as he has finished above 70 on PFF in four of the past six seasons. Still in his late prime in his age 29 season, Fitzpatrick has a good chance to be better in 2025 than he was in 2024. Elliott, on the other hand, is coming off his 2nd best PFF grade in five seasons as a starter, but it wasn’t out of line with how he’s played in the past, finishing between 65.6 and 72.6 on PFF in those five seasons. Also relatively young in his age 28 season, I would expect more of the same from him in 2025.

The Steelers’ didn’t retain their top reserve safety, Damontee Kazee, this off-season, but he had just a 58.8 PFF grade across 290 snaps last season and the Steelers likely upgraded by replacing him with free agent addition Juan Thornhill. Thornhill has finished above 65 on PFF in five of six seasons in the league, while starting 74 of 87 games played over those six seasons. He has missed six games in each of the past two seasons respectively and is now heading into his age 30 season, but, as far as reserve safeties go, he’s a great option.

Cornerback was probably the Steelers’ biggest weakness on defense last season, as no cornerback played more than 200 snaps and finished with a PFF grade above 60. That includes Joey Porter, their de facto top cornerback, who had a 55.0 PFF grade. Porter was a second round pick in 2023 and has shown some promise, but he has also committed 27 penalties in two seasons in the league, including 15 last season, which was three more than any other cornerback. Porter was better as a rookie though, with a 65.2 PFF grade, and, only in his age 25 season, he could easily bounce back at least somewhat in his third season in the league, or perhaps even have his best year yet.

The Steelers also should get better play opposite Porter this season, parting ways with Donte Jackson, who had a 50.0 PFF grade across 780 snaps, and replacing him with veteran free agent addition Darius Slay. Slay comes with some risk though because, while he has finished above 60 on PFF in ten of the last eleven seasons, with seven seasons above 70 and four seasons above 80, he is also going into his age 34 season and could decline significantly in 2025. Even if he doesn’t decline, it’s hard to imagine him being significantly better than the 68.4 PFF grade he had in 2023 or the 67.6 PFF grade he had in 2024, though, again, it wouldn’t be hard for him to be better than Jackson was last season.

Unfortunately, the Steelers still have Beanie Bishop as their slot cornerback, after the 2024 undrafted free agent struggled with a 55.5 PFF grade across 549 snaps last season. He could be better in his second season in the league in 2025, but there’s also probably a good reason why he went undrafted and it’s very possible he never develops into even a capable slot cornerback. The Steelers do have Cory Trice as their top reserve and #4 cornerback and the 2023 7th round pick flashed potential with a 69.4 PFF grade last season, but he did so on only 194 snaps, the first 194 snaps of his career, so he’s very inexperienced and could easily struggle if injuries force him into a significant role. The Steelers have a solid group at safety and their cornerbacks should be better by default this season, but this secondary still has some concerns.

Grade: B

Kicker

Steelers kicker Chris Boswell was the best in the league last season, leading the league with 14.63 points above average, making 41 of 44 field goals and all 35 extra points. This was a career best year for Boswell, but it wasn’t out of the ordinary, as his 40.16 points above average over the past decade rank second in the league over that span, only behind Justin Tucker. Boswell is now in his age 34 season, but elite kickers can perform at a high level into their mid-to-late 30s, so I am not really concerned about his age. He probably won’t be quite as good again in 2025 as he was in 2024, just by default, but he should still be one of the top few kickers in the league.

Grade: A

Conclusion

The Steelers are hoping Aaron Rodgers upgrades their quarterback room, but the way he has played in his last two healthy seasons is not significantly better than what the Steelers got at quarterback last season and Rodgers is now heading into his age 42 season and could decline further. The Steelers are also starting from a lower base point than their 2024 record suggests, as they finished last season 23rd in yards per play differential and 26th in first down rate differential, which are much more predictive than win/loss records year-to-year. 

The Steelers also have the second oldest roster in the NFL, in part due to Rodgers, but also because of some other older players, including TJ Watt and Cameron Heyward, who were their best two defenders last season. The Steelers are well coached and could still compete for a playoff spot, but they have a tough schedule and there are at least seven better teams than them in the AFC, so they should find themselves on the outside looking in at the post-season when all is said and done.

Prediction: 5-12, 3rd in AFC North

Pittsburgh Steelers at Baltimore Ravens: 2024 AFC Wild Card Round Pick

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Pittsburgh Steelers (10-7) at Baltimore Ravens (12-5)

The Ravens finished the regular season first in both yards per play differential and first down rate differential by a wide margin, with their yards per play differential of +1.66 being significantly better than the second best team at +0.99 and their first down rate differential of +6.36% being significantly better than the second best team at +4.70%. Their offense led the way with a 6.85 yards per play average (2nd best in the league was 6.24) and a 36.22% first down rate (2nd best in the league was 35.90%), but their defense has also been especially good in recent weeks, since making a switch at safety from Marcus Williams to Ar’Darius Washington in week 11.

Since week 11, their defense ranks first in both yards per play allowed (4.39) and first down rate allowed (26.44%). In fairness, their offense hasn’t been quite as good over that stretch as it was on the season as a whole, but they still ranked 4th in first down rate and 2nd in yards per play during that stretch at 34.76% and 6.50 respectively. In total, the Ravens have a yards per play differential of +2.11 and a first down rate differential of +8.33% since week 11, both best in the league.

That is despite the fact that the Ravens played playoff qualifiers in five of seven games over that stretch. In fact, no playoff qualifier played more other playoff qualifiers this season than the Ravens who played ten. In those ten games, they went 7-3 both straight up and against the spread, with a point differential of +112, best among playoff qualifiers against other playoff qualifiers by a wide margin, with the Chiefs being second at +42 (excluding their meaningless week 18 loss to the Broncos). The Ravens’ point differential against playoff qualifiers was powered by five wins over other playoff qualifiers by at least 10 points, very relevant considering this line is 9.5.

The Steelers, on the other hand, were one of the weaker playoff qualifiers. They did go 4-3 against other playoff qualifiers, but with a point differential of -30, including double digit losses in each of their last three games against playoff qualifiers. The Steelers also finished the regular season with a yards per play differential of -0.35 and a first down rate differential of -2.23%, both worst among playoff qualifiers. This line might seem high at 9.5, but with that big of a gap between these two teams, this line seems more than warranted. Additionally, big favorites like this tend to cover at a high rate in the first round of the playoffs, with favorites of 9.5 or more going 11-2 ATS, including 3-0 ATS as favorites of exactly 9.5. That alone isn’t a reason to bet on the Ravens, but if this big line scares you, that is definitely worth noting. 

The Ravens do have one thing working against them that prevents this from being a bigger bet and that is the injury to #1 receiver Zay Flowers. The Ravens have been one of the least injury plagued teams in the league this season and, while Flowers is the only key player they are missing for this game, it is still a big absence, particularly when you consider they haven’t dealt with many significant injuries this season. 

The Steelers also have one key player absent, guard James Daniels, but he has been out since week 4 and, unlike the Ravens, the Steelers have had many significant injuries this season, as key players like starting quarterback Russell Wilson (6 games), talented center Zach Frazier (2 games), talented guard Isaac Seumalo (4 games), top wide receiver George Pickens (3 games), top cornerback Joey Porter (1 game), talented safety DeShon Elliott (2 games), and talented edge defenders Alex Highsmith (6 games) and Nick Herbig (4 games) all missed time with injury this season and have since returned. I’m still betting on the Ravens at -9.5, but Flowers’ absence is enough to keep this at a smaller bet and I don’t think I would bet the Ravens at -10.

Baltimore Ravens 26 Pittsburgh Steelers 13

Pick against the spread: Baltimore -9.5

Confidence: Medium

Cincinnati Bengals at Pittsburgh Steelers: 2024 Week 18 NFL Pick

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Cincinnati Bengals (8-8) at Pittsburgh Steelers (10-6)

Dating back to Mike Tomlin’s first season in Pittsburgh in 2007, the Steelers have been a great bet as underdogs, going 57-40 ATS, including 17-7 ATS as home underdogs, 24-11 ATS as divisional underdogs, and 7-1 ATS as divisional home underdogs. The Bengals tend to be a good bet later in the season in the Joe Burrow/Zac Taylor era, going 28-17 ATS in week 10 or later since 2020, which could cancel out the trend working in the Steelers’ favor, but the Steelers also benefit from being in their second straight game as home underdogs after a big loss as home underdogs, as teams cover at a 55.2% rate as home underdogs the week after losing by 14 or more as home underdogs.

On top of that, we’re also getting some line value with the Steelers as 2-point home underdogs. The Bengals have a statistical edge despite having two fewer wins, with a first down rate differential of +1.49% and a yards per play differential of +0.29, as opposed to -2.24% and -0.32 for the Steelers, two stats which much more predictive than win/loss record. However, the Steelers have a significant injury edge, as they’re missing just one week 1 starter, right guard James Daniels, who has been out since week 4.

That means the Steelers are relatively very healthy for this point in the season, especially when you consider that key players like starting quarterback Russell Wilson (6 games), talented center Zach Frazier (2 games), talented guard Isaac Seumalo (4 games), top wide receiver George Pickens (3 games), top cornerback Joey Porter (1 game), talented safety DeShon Elliott (2 games), and talented edge defenders Alex Highsmith (6 games) and Nick Herbig (4 games) have all missed time with injury this season and have since returned, so it’s not as if the Steelers have been relatively healthy all season long.

The Bengals, on the other hand, are missing at least six week one starters, potentially eight, and, as a result, are about a point behind the Steelers in my roster rankings, despite their statistical advantage on the season. The Steelers also have one major advantage that yards per play differential, first down rate differential, and my roster rankings don’t show, as their kicker Chris Boswell ranks first in the NFL among eligible kickers with 0.87 points above expected per game this season, while Bengals kicker Evan McPherson is injured and was replaced with Cade York, who is arguably the worst active kicker in the NFL, averaging a league worst 1.69 points below expected per game this season, after averaging 0.57 points below expected per game in 2022 in his only other season in the league. That’s probably worth about two points in the Steelers favor.

Given that disparity at kicker and that the Steelers have the edge in my roster rankings and homefield advantage, my calculated line favors the Steelers at home by at least a field goal, potentially up to five points depending on injuries, so we’re getting good line value with the Steelers at +2 and +110 on the money line, before even taking into account that the Steelers should be in a better spot than the Bengals this week. There is some speculation that the Steelers might rest their starters in this game if the Ravens win as massive favorites over the Browns earlier in the day, which would eliminate the Steelers from the divisional race. That could be part of why the Steelers are home underdogs, but I think it’s highly unlikely that the Steelers rest starters, for a few reasons. 

For one, the Steelers will have to prepare for this game all week as if they are going to have a chance to win the division, as they can’t just assume the Ravens will win. Additionally, head coach Mike Tomlin said he doesn’t expect to rest starters. On top of that, the Steelers still will have the 5 seed to play for even if the Ravens win, which is a big deal, as the 5 seed is the difference between having to go to Baltimore in the first round and getting to go to Houston to face the reeling Texans. If the Steelers win this game, they clinch the 5 seed, but if they lose and the Chargers beat the lowly Raiders, the Steelers would fall to 6. Because of that, I feel comfortable betting on the Steelers this week and want to lock this in before the line potentially moves. If this line stays the same and some key questionable players for the Bengals (running back Chase Brown, right tackle Amarius Mims, cornerback Cam Taylor-Britt) are inactive, I may increase this bet or potentially even make it my Pick of the Week.

Update: Without any better options in a week where at least four, if not more, teams are going to rest their starters, I am making this my Pick of the Week, especially since the line has increased slightly to +2.5.

Pittsburgh Steelers 27 Cincinnati Bengals 23 Upset Pick +110

Pick against the spread: Pittsburgh +2.5

Confidence: Pick of the Week

Kansas City Chiefs at Pittsburgh Steelers: 2024 Week 17 NFL Pick

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Kansas City Chiefs (14-1) at Pittsburgh Steelers (10-5)

This line favors the visiting Chiefs by 3 points and typically the Steelers are a good bet as underdogs, going 57-39 ATS since Mike Tomlin’s first season in 2007, including 29-17 ATS as underdogs of three or fewer, as they tend to play and win a lot of close games (104-64 in one-score games under Mike Tomlin, the best record in the league over that time period). However, the Chiefs also have played and won a lot of close games this season, going 11-0 in one-score games, and, as a result of that, they have covered at a high rate unless they are big favorites, going 0-5 ATS when favored by 6 points or fewer and 7-3 ATS in their other games.

As a result of all their close victories, both teams are worse in first down rate differential and yards per play differential than their records suggest, as the Chiefs are +1.24% in first down rate differential and -0.15 in yards per play differential, while the Steelers are -2.20% in first down rate differential and -0.23 yards in per play differential. Both of those metrics are more predictive than win/loss record, although both teams have shown the ability to consistently win close games at a much higher rate than average.

Ultimately, this pick comes down to injuries. The Steelers have the advantage in that aspect, even though they’ll be without top cornerback Joey Porter after he got hurt in last week’s game, as they’ll get back top wide receiver George Pickens, talented safety DeShon Elliott, and starting cornerback Donte Jackson from absences of three games, two games, and one game respectively, while the Chiefs could be without stud interior defender Chris Jones for the first time this season, which would a huge absence. My calculated line with Jones out is Kansas City -1 and with him in it’s Kansas City -3. With Jones uncertain, I am going to take the Steelers for a no confidence pick at +3 for now and upgrade it to low confidence if Jones is out and the line doesn’t move.

Kansas City Chiefs 20 Pittsburgh Steelers 17

Pick against the spread: Pittsburgh +3

Confidence: None

Pittsburgh Steelers at Baltimore Ravens: 2024 Week 16 NFL Pick

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Pittsburgh Steelers (10-4) at Baltimore Ravens (9-5)

The Steelers are typically a good bet as underdogs under Mike Tomlin, going 57-38 ATS since Tomlin’s first season in 2007. However, they do have a strong trend working against them in this spot, as teams are 44-61 ATS as underdogs in a same-season regular season divisional rematch against a team they already beat as underdogs earlier in the season, as it’s very tough to pull an upset against the same team twice in the same season. It’s a small sample size obviously, but the Steelers lost and failed to cover the only time they were in that situation under Mike Tomlin, even as good as they are as underdogs in general.

With that in mind, I think the Ravens are bettable as 6.5-point favorites this week. The Steelers have the better record, but the Ravens have significant advantages in first down rate differential (5.31% vs. -1.79%) and yards per play differential (+1.54 vs. -0.14), which are much more predictive than win-loss records. In the Ravens’ loss to the Steelers earlier this season, the Ravens won the first down rate battle by 4.89% and the yards per play differential by 2.00, only losing by two because they lost the turnover battle by two and missed two field goals, which are both much less predictive than yards per play and first down rate. The Ravens also have a 7-point edge in my roster rankings.

It might seem weird to bet a big favorite against a team with a better record, but teams are 140-108 ATS all-time in week 11 or later as favorites of 3.5 or more against a team with a better record than them, as teams tend to be big favorites in that situation for a good reason. That alone isn’t a reason to bet on the Ravens, but I wouldn’t worry about the Steelers having the better record when evaluating this game. This isn’t a big bet, but the Ravens are worth betting this week.

Baltimore Ravens 27 Pittsburgh Steelers 17

Pick against the spread: Baltimore -6.5

Confidence: Medium

Pittsburgh Steelers at Cleveland Browns: 2024 Week 12 NFL Pick

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Pittsburgh Steelers (8-2) at Cleveland Browns (2-8)

The Steelers are 8-2, while the Browns are 2-8, so it might be surprising that the Steelers are only favored by 3.5 points in this game, even on the road. Most people seem to be surprised by the line, which is why about 87% of people are on the Steelers this week. This line seems to be a trap though, for several reasons. For one, 3.5 is a common trap line and, as a result, +3.5 covers the spread at a 52.0% rate, higher than any other single number. That’s because the average bettor doesn’t realize it’s actually a pretty high line. 

About 1 in 4 games are decided by three points or fewer, with 1 in 6 being decided by exactly three, while 4 and 5 are much less common outcomes, with only about 1 in 10 games being decided by either four or five points. In fact, in terms of real probability, the line 3.5 is actually closer to 6 than 3. If this line was 5.5, I suspect a lot more people would be on the Browns, but the odds makers made it 3.5 because they want a lot of bets on the Steelers, which normally means the smart play is to go the other way and specifically in this case I believe it is.

The Steelers’ record is impressive, but they’re actually negative in both yards per play differential (-0.30) and first down rate differential (-0.64%), which are much more predictive than win/loss record. Their offense in particular has struggled, averaging just 4.96 yards per play and a 27.92% first down rate, both well below the league averages of 5.42 and 30.77%. The biggest reason for the Steelers’ success this season is a +11 turnover margin, second best in the NFL, but turnover margins tend to have very little week-to-week correlation. 

The Steelers also historically have had a lot more success as underdogs or small favorites in the Mike Tomlin era than have had as bigger favorites, especially on the road. While they are 82-52 ATS as underdogs or favorites of less than 3 since Tomlin’s first season in 2007, they are just 22-36 ATS as road favorites of a field goal or more over that stretch. That makes sense, as the Steelers traditionally are a conservative, defense led team that thrives off being overlooked, but that also struggles to win big when they’re expected to.

The Steelers especially struggle as big road favorites after a win, as their record as road favorites of a field goal or more falls to 10-25 ATS when the Steelers are coming off of a win, which they are after a close upset victory over the Ravens last week. That close victory also opens up another trend that works against the Steelers, as teams are just 25-46 ATS as road favorites after a win by 3 points or fewer as underdogs. After such a big win last week, it could be hard for the Steelers to bring their best effort for a 2-8 opponent, especially on a short week. Meanwhile, the Browns could be viewing this as their Super Bowl, similarly to how they upset the Ravens a few weeks back in a similar spot.

We’re not getting a ton of line value with the Browns, who have plenty of issues, hence their 2-8 record, but, their offense has been noticeably better since Jameis Winston became their quarterback and, given the Steelers’ issues on offense, my calculated line is Pittsburgh -3, which, as I mentioned, is more line value than it seems. That line value combined with the trends that go against the Steelers make the Browns bettable and, at the very least, they’re a good contrarian pick in pick ‘em leagues. I wouldn’t go crazy with this bet, but the Browns look like the right side for a variety of reasons.

Pittsburgh Steelers 19 Cleveland Browns 17

Pick against the spread: Cleveland +3.5

Confidence: Medium