Quarterback

In 2023, the Texans had a surprise 10-7 season, won their division, and then won a wild card playoff game, led by impressive rookie quarterback CJ Stroud, as well as other talented young players who had breakout seasons. Last off-season, the Texans were aggressive in trying to maximize the rest of their roster while Stroud and others were on cheap rookie contracts and made numerous veteran additions, most notably wide receiver Stefon Diggs, who they acquired in a trade with the Bills. Many expected them to take another step forward in 2024 as a result and potentially even contend for a Super Bowl.

The Texans’ 2024 season wasn’t bad, but it was disappointing given their pre-season expectations, as their 2024 season essentially went the same way as 2023 did, a 10-7 record, a division title, and a wild card playoff win. Making matters even worse, the Texans were not even as good as their 10-7 record suggested in the regular season, finishing the year with a negative first down rate differential at -0.38% and only finishing slightly positive in yards per play differential at +0.03.

Their offense was the most disappointing as they went from 12th in yards per play and 17th in first down rate in 2023 to 19th in yards per play and 29th in first down rate in 2024. CJ Stroud fell from a 63.9% completion, 8.23 YPA, 23 touchdowns, and 5 interceptions (100.8 QB rating) to 63.2% completion, 7.01 YPA, 20 touchdowns, and 12 interceptions (87.0 QB rating). It wasn’t all his fault as his PFF grade actually only fell from 83.0 to 78.9, but it was a relatively disappointing year from him, given how good he was as a rookie. 

I will get into the other reasons this offense struggled last season later and will address whether I expect those issues to continue in 2025, but Stroud’s disappointing second season in the league wasn’t totally unexpected, given that impressive rookies often take a step back in their second season in the league, and it wouldn’t be surprising at all if he bounced back or even had his best season yet in his third season in the league in 2025, still only turning 24 in October. The future is still very bright for Stroud, who has the potential to be among the best quarterbacks in the league for years to come.

Stroud will continue being backed up by Davis Mills. A 3rd round pick in 2021, Mills made 25 starts in his first two seasons in the league before Stroud was added, but completed just 63.6% of his passes for an average of 6.62 YPA, 33 touchdowns, and 25 interceptions, while going just 5-19-1. Mills’ lack of supporting cast can be blamed somewhat for his struggles in those two seasons and it’s possible he has gotten better since then, but across 75 pass attempts since becoming the backup, Mills has completed 50.7% of his passes for an average of 5.13 YPA, 2 touchdowns, and 0 interceptions. He showed enough for the Texans to keep him on a 1-year, 5 million dollar extension, but he’s an underwhelming backup option and the Texans would obviously be in trouble if Stroud missed significant time and Mills had to start in his absence.

Grade: A-

Receiving Corps

Part of the reason why the Texans’ offense disappointed last season was injuries to their receiving corps. In 2023, the Texans had a pair of talented young wide receivers who had breakout years in Nico Collins and Tank Dell and then they added veteran Stefon Diggs to the mix to give them arguably the best wide receiver trio in the league. However, Collins missed five games, Diggs suffered a torn ACL that ended his season after 8 games, while Dell was not 100% to start the season recovering from a broken leg suffered late in 2023 and then, right around when he started to look like himself, he suffered a multi-ligament tear in his knee in week 16 that could cost him all of 2025.

With Diggs signing with the Patriots this off-season and Dell’s 2025 in jeopardy, wide receiver was a big need for the Texans this off-season and they addressed it by trading for veteran Christian Kirk and then using second and third round picks on Jayden Higgins and Jaylin Noel. Nico Collins remains as the #1 receiver. The 2021 3rd round pick showed promise early in his career, with a yards per route run average of 1.24 as a rookie and 1.68 in his second season in the league, despite shaky quarterback play, and then he broke out in his third season in 2023 when Stroud arrived, finishing the season with a 80/1297/8 slash line in 15 games on just 109 targets, while averaging 3.10 yards per route run and posting a 91.0 PFF grade.

In 2024, his PFF grade was even better at 91.6 and he had a 68/1006/7 slash line with 2.87 yards per route run on just 99 targets in 12 games. Over 17 games, that extrapolates to a 96/1425/10 slash line and that’s despite possibly not being 100% after returning from injury. Through his first five games of the season before getting hurt, Collins had a 32/567/3 slash line, which extrapolates to a 109/1928/10 slash line over 17 games. Injuries have always been an issue for him as he’s missed at least two games in all four seasons in the league, with 17 total games missed, but he’s among the best receivers in the league when healthy and, still only going into his age 26 season, his upside is massive in 2025 if he can avoid injury.

Christian Kirk should be a solid #2 option. He has missed 14 games over the past two seasons combined but averaged 2.07 yards per route run in 2023 and 1.72 yards per route run in 2024. Over the past four seasons combined, he has averaged 1.85 yards per route run with an average slash line of 77/1025/5 per 17 games and he’s still relatively young, only in his age 29 season. He probably won’t have as big of a target share in Houston as he had over the past four seasons, but his quarterback situation should be better and he won’t face many double teams with Nico Collins taking coverage away from him. Injuries are his biggest concern, but he comes with plenty of upside if he can stay healthy.

Kirk as the #2 receiver leaves the rookies Higgins and Noel to compete with holdover John Metchie for the #3 receiver job. Metchie is a former high draft pick himself, going in the second round in 2022, but he missed his whole rookie season while recovering from cancer and hasn’t developed in two years since, averaging just 1.00 yards per route run in a part-time role. He’s still only in his age 25 season and could still have upside, but the rookie Higgins will probably end up as the #3 receiver sooner rather than later and Metchie could end up as low as 5th on the depth chart behind Noel.

Tight end Dalton Schultz also had a down year in 2024 as well, going from a 59/635/5 slash line with 1.47 yards per route run in 2023 to a 53/532/2 slash line with 1.04 yards per route run last season. Schultz also averaged 1.47 yards per route run in 2021 and 1.38 yards per route run in 2022 and he’s still relatively young, going into his age 29 season, so it’s very possible 2024 proves to be a fluke and he bounces back in 2025. Even at his best, he’s not an elite tight end, but he is a solid one and a bounce back from him would help this offense at least somewhat.

Schultz will be backed up by either Cade Stover or Brevin Jordan. Stover, a 2024 4th round pick, was mediocre as a rookie with 0.92 yards per route run and a 51.9 PFF grade, but he could be better in his second season in the league. Jordan, meanwhile, was impressive as the #2 tight end in 2023, with 1.59 yards per route run and a 68.7 PFF grade, but he missed most of last season with injury. Jordan, a 2021 5th round pick, is still only going into his age 25 season, but he has just a 1.02 yards per route run average aside from 2023 and coming back from a significant injury complicates matters, so it’s far from a guarantee that he will return to his 2023 form in 2025. He’s still probably the favorite for the #2 tight end job, but it’s very possible both tight ends see roles behind Schultz. Overall, this receiving corps looks likely to be better than a year ago, when injuries significantly affected it.

Grade: B+

Offensive Line

The other reason this offense disappointed in 2024 was the struggles of their offensive line. The Texans overhauled their offensive line this off-season, adding numerous starting options, but they also traded away left tackle Laremy Tunsil in the process and he was their best offensive lineman last season with a 76.5 PFF grade in 17 starts. The Texans felt they wouldn’t be able to afford him long-term given all of the Texans’ other young players who will need big pay raises in the next couple off-seasons and wanted to get something for him while they could, ahead of his age 31 season. However, none of the other offensive linemen the Texans brought in this off-season have Tunsil’s upside and, as a result, this offensive line could potentially be even worse in 2025 than it was in 2024.

Tunsil’s likely replacement is Cam Robinson, who the Texans signed to a 1-year, 12 million dollar deal this off-season. Robinson has made 101 starts in eight seasons in the league, all at left tackle, so he comes with plenty of experience, but he also has never finished with a PFF grade higher than 67.2. The flip side of that is he has finished above 60 on PFF in five straight seasons, so he at least gives the Texans a floor at the left tackle position, but he doesn’t give them much upside, especially since he is now heading into his age 30 season.

At right tackle, the Texans have several options. Tytus Howard started 12 games there last season, but he can also play guard, where he started 4 games down the stretch last season and where he has made 25 of his 77 career starts in six seasons in the league. If he moves to guard, the Texans could start 2024 2nd round pick Blake Fisher, rookie 2nd round pick Aireontae Ersery, or veteran free agent addition Trent Brown at right tackle.

Fisher was mediocre across 337 snaps (5 starts) as a rookie, with a 50.4 PFF grade, but could take a step forward in his second season in the league. Ersery enters the league pretty raw, but also has upside and it wouldn’t be a surprise to see him be a capable starter in year one. Brown has finished above 60 on PFF in all ten seasons in the league, including three seasons over 70, but he’s also missed 61 games in his career, including 20 over the past two seasons, and he’s now heading into his age 32 season so, even if he starts at the beginning of the season, the chances he gets hurt or gets benched due to age related decline are significant. 

Howard figures to be a starter somewhere, whether right tackle or one of the guard spots. He’s been inconsistent in six years in the league, finishing below 60 on PFF in three of six seasons in the league, but he did have a career best year in 2024, with a 70.5 PFF grade. He’s unlikely to repeat the best year of his career again in 2025, given his inconsistent past, but it wouldn’t be a surprise to see him remain at least a capable starter. Guard makes more sense for him than right tackle because the Texans have fewer options there, but it wouldn’t be a surprise to see him play right tackle or even for him to see starts at both.

Aside from Howard, the Texans options at guard are free agent acquisition Laken Tomlinson, trade acquisition Ed Ingram, and holdover Juice Scruggs, who made 8 starts at center last season, but started his final 5 games at guard. Tomlinson is a veteran who has made 155 starts in 10 seasons in the league, while finishing above 60 on PFF in seven of those seasons, but he’s now going into his age 33 season and the 62.1 PFF grade he had last season was his best of the past three seasons. That’s probably the best case scenario for him at this point in his career and it wouldn’t be a surprise to see him struggle.

Ingram was a second round pick by the Vikings in 2022, but he hasn’t developed, with PFF grades of 57.1, 59.5, and 54.0 in three seasons in the league (41 starts), which is why he was available so inexpensively via trade this off-season. He may still have some untapped potential, but he is running out of time to make good on that potential. Scruggs is also a former 2nd round pick, selected in 2023. He struggled in seven starts at guard as a rookie with a 51.5 PFF grade, but was better last season with a 63.6 PFF grade and could remain at least a capable starter. Overall, the Texans’ guard options are underwhelming, but it’s not like they got great guard play last season either.

If Scruggs doesn’t end up with a starting job at guard, he could compete at center. His primary competition at center would be Jarrett Patterson, who has been decent with PFF grades of 60.4 and 61.0 across 16 total starts in two seasons in the league, despite only being a 6th round pick in 2023. The Texans have options on the offensive line, but overall it seems like they have much more quantity than quality and, as a result, this is likely to remain a below average offensive line again this season.

Grade: B-

Running Backs

Along with Stefon Diggs, the other key veteran addition the Texans made on offense last season was running back Joe Mixon. Unlike Diggs, Mixon remains on the roster and will remain the starter in 2025. Mixon wasn’t necessarily a disappointment in his first season in Houston, but he wasn’t a difference maker either. He handled the load, with 245 carries in 14 games and he had 11 rushing touchdowns, but his 4.15 yards per carry average was unspectacular. He also slowed down significantly down the stretch, averaging 4.83 yards per carry on 126 carries in his first 6 games, as opposed to 3.42 yards per carry on 119 carries in his final 8 games.

Mixon has rushed for 7,428 yards and 60 touchdowns on 1,816 carries in his career (4.09 YPC), while averaging a 49/375/2 slash line per 17 games through the game, but he is now heading into his age 29 season with 2,135 career touches, which is a common time for running backs to start declining significantly. With Mixon getting up there in age, the Texans used a 4th round pick on Woody Marks to potentially replace him long-term. Marks is likely to begin his career as the third string running back though, as the Texans already have a capable backup in Dameon Pierce.

Pierce has seen his carry total decline from 220 to 145 to 40 in three seasons in the league since being drafted in the 4th round in 2022, but he has a solid 4.07 yards per carry average in his career, with 3.28 yards per carry coming after contact. He also showed himself capable of being a lead back as a rookie in 2022, when he averaged 4.27 yards per carry on 220 carries with 3.28 yards per carry after contact. He’s pretty useless in passing situations, with 0.76 yards per route run averaged for his career, but he’s a good backup to have on early downs. It wouldn’t be a surprise to see his carry total increase this season if the Texans want to rest Mixon more frequently to keep him fresher as he ages. This isn’t a bad backfield, but none of the Texans’ running backs are game changers.

Grade: B

Edge Defenders

While the Texans’ offense was disappointing in 2024, their defense actually played well and was by far the strength of this team. In 2023, they ranked 13th in yards per play allowed and 16th in first down rate allowed and in 2024, they jumped to 4th in yards per play allowed and 3rd in first down rate allowed. A big reason for that success was free agent acquisition Danielle Hunter, who had a 82.7 PFF grade across 766 snaps in the first year of a 2-year, 49 million dollar deal.

That was nothing new for Hunter, who has finished above 70 on PFF in every season except his rookie season, dating back to 2016, including finishes above 80 in four of the past five seasons. In total, he has 93.5 sacks, 65 hits, and a 13.1% pressure rate in 122 games since 2016, including 12 sacks, 13 hits, and a 13.2% pressure rate last season, and he’s a high level run defender as well. Hunter is going into his age 31 season in 2025, so he could start to decline, but he hasn’t shown any signs of decline yet and, even if he does decline noticeably in 2025, he will likely remain at least an above average starter.

Hunter makes up a dominant edge defender duo with Will Anderson, the 3rd overall pick in the 2023 NFL Draft, who had an impressive rookie season, winning Defensive Rookie of the Year on the strength of 7 sacks, 14 hits, and a 14.5% pressure rate, and a 81.8 PFF grade across 629 snaps and then he was even better in his second season in the league in 2024, finishing with a 85.1 PFF grade across 561 snaps and totaling 11 sacks, 9 hits, and a 14.0% pressure rate. Still only going into his age 24 season in 2025, Anderson may not have reached his peak yet and looks like to be one of the best edge defenders in the league for years to come. He could play at a Defensive Player of the Year caliber level this season.

With a duo like Hunter and Anderson leading the way, the Texans don’t have much need for depth, but they have at least one good option. Derek Barnett is not much of a pass rusher, with a career 9.8% pressure rate and just a 8.1% pressure rate last season, but he’s an above average run defender who can be useful in a situational role. He’s finished above 60 on PFF in run defense grade in all but one of his eight seasons in the league, including four seasons above 70 and run defense grades of 80.1 and 72.6 over the past two seasons respectively. He played 390 snaps last season and I would expect a similar role from him in 2025.

Denico Autry has been a useful player for most of his career, finishing above 60 on PFF in 9 of 11 seasons in the league, while averaging 566 snaps per season, but he fell to a 56.0 PFF grade across just 314 snaps last season and now heads into his age 35 season, so he might not even be a useful depth player at this point in his career. He’ll compete for a reserve role with 2023 4th round pick Dylan Horton, who has played 387 nondescript snaps in his career, but could have upside, and free agent acquisition Darrell Taylor, a 2020 2nd round pick who has never finished above 60 on PFF in overall grade for a season, but who has at least been useful as a situational pass rusher, with a career 10.7% pressure rate, including a 13.8% pressure rate last season. Overall, this is a great edge defender group, led by Anderson and Hunter.

Grade: A

Interior Defenders

The weak spot on this defense was the interior defender position, where the Texans didn’t have a single player finish with higher than a 60 grade on PFF. All four of the Texans top interior defenders in terms of snaps played last season all return and could play similar roles. Tim Settle led this position group with 625 snaps played in 17 games and finished with a 57.6 PFF grade. He was an effective pass rusher, with 5 sacks, 4 hits, and a 9.4% pressure rate, but struggled mightily with a 42.6 run defense grade. This has largely been the case for him throughout his 7-year career, as he has finished above 60 in run defense grade just once, but has a decent 7.7% pressure rate for his career. 

Now in his age 28 season, Settle likely is who he is at this stage of his career and should remain an effective pass rusher who struggles against the run this season. Mario Edwards ranked second with 466 snaps played in 13 games and he is a similar player to Settle. He has a 8.5% pressure rate for his career, including a 8.1% pressure rate last season, but has finished below 60 on PFF in run defense grade in four of the past six seasons. Now going into his age 31 season, it wouldn’t be a surprise if his pass rush declined as well.

Folorunso Fatukasi was the worst of the bunch with a 33.7 PFF grade across 308 snaps in 11 games. He’s had better years in the past, finishing above 60 on PFF in four of the previous five seasons prior to last season, so I wouldn’t expect him to be quite as bad in 2025 as he was in 2024, but he’s going into his age 30 season, so his best days are probably behind him at this point and he could easily continue being a liability. Kurt Hinish could also remain in the mix for snaps, despite finishing with PFF grades of 49.5, 40.0, and 56.2 on snap counts of 435, 465, and 231 in three seasons in the league since going undrafted in 2022.

The Texans did add Sheldon Rankins to the mix this off-season, but it’s unclear how much that will help. Rankins is returning to Houston, where he played in 2023 and if the Texans get the 2023 version of him, that will be a big boost, as he struggled against the run, but was a dominant pass rusher with 6 sacks, 4 hits, and a 10.3% pressure rate. However, Rankins had a 55.3 PFF grade and was limited to 287 snaps in seven games with the Bengals last season due to an illness. Availability has consistently been an issue for him, as he has missed 32 games in nine seasons in the league, with at least four games missed in four of those seasons. Now heads into his age 31 season, so his best days could be behind him, but there is a scenario in which he is a useful player for them at a position of need in 2025. Overall, this is still an underwhelming position group. 

Grade: C+

Linebackers

Another big addition the Texans made to their defense last off-season was linebacker Azeez Al-Shaair. He was limited to 573 snaps in 11 games, primarily by a suspension for repeated personal fouls, but he had a 70.9 PFF grade when he did play. Al-Shaair has finished above 60 on PFF in six straight seasons, but last season was his career best PFF grade, so it wouldn’t be a surprise if he regressed at least a little bit this season, but the flip side of that is he is likely to be available for more games and play more snaps this season.

Al-Shaair started next to Henry To’oTo’o, who improved significantly from 2023 to 2024. A 2023 5th round pick, To’oTo’o struggled during his rookie season with a 42.7 PFF grade across 435 snaps, but he improved to about a league average starter in 2024, with a 60.9 PFF grade across 830 snaps. It’s possible he could regress in 2025, but it’s also possible he has permanently turned the corner and will remain at least a capable starter, potentially with the upside to get even better in his third season in the league.

The Texans actually didn’t miss Al-Shaair that much when he was out last season because reserves Neville Hewitt and Jake Hansen finished the season with PFF grades of 70.2 and 78.2 respectively across snap counts of 342 and 135 respectively. Hewitt wasn’t brought back this off-season, but Hansen remains. He has only played 383 snaps in three seasons in the league and went undrafted in 2022, but he’s shown a lot of promise in limited action, with PFF grades of 69.1, 74.8, and 78.2 across his three seasons in the league.

The Texans also added EJ Speed in free agency this off-season to further bolster their depth and they have 2022 3rd round pick Christian Harris set to return from an injury plagued 2024 season in which he played just 172 snaps in three games. Speed has played 56.2 snaps per game while starting 26 of 31 games played over the past two seasons and has generally been a marginal starter, with PFF grades of 65.0 and 56.4 respectively. Now in Houston, it’s unlikely he will remain an every down player, but he should still be a useful situational run stuffer, having received run defense grades of 82.8, 78.8, and 71.5 from PFF over the past three seasons respectively, and if To’oTo’o regresses, Speed would likely be the Texans’ first option to replace him as an every down player.

Harris, meanwhile, was a decent starter in 2023 with a 60.1 PFF grade across 755 snaps, but he also had a 28.3 PFF grade across 711 snaps as a rookie in 2022 and had a 40.0 PFF grade across 172 snaps last season, so he is probably not returning to a starting role in a linebacking corps that is even deeper that it was last season. Overall, this is not a spectacular group, but they have plenty of depth and options and could be an above average group overall.

Grade: B

Secondary

The Texans also got better cornerback play in 2024 than they did in 2023, due to impressive play from second round pick Kamari Lassister and a breakout year by slot cornerback Jalen Pitre, who converted from safety. Lassister had a 70.0 PFF grade across 799 snaps in 14 games, while Pitre had a 73.9 PFF grade across 660 snaps, after the 2022 2nd round pick had middling grades of 57.1 and 61.6 on snap counts of 1,088 and 904 in his first two seasons in the league respectively. Lassister will likely remain an above average starter in 2025 and has the upside to be even better, while Pitre has some regression potential, but could have permanently turned a corner and could remain an above average player in his second season at his new position.

Derek Stingley will remain the top cornerback. He didn’t have quite as good of a season in 2023 as he did in 2024, falling from a 81.8 PFF grade to a 73.9 PFF grade, but he played all 17 games, as opposed to 11 in 2023. Still only going into his age 24 season, Stingley, the third overall pick in the 2022 NFL Draft, looks likely to be one of the best cornerbacks in the league for years to come. The one concern with him is injuries as, even though he played in all 17 games last season, he missed 14 in his first two seasons combined and had durability issues as a prospect coming out of college.

The Texans bolstered their cornerback depth this off-season by using a third round pick on Jaylin Smith and signing veteran Ronald Darby. Darby has finished above 60 on PFF in nine of ten seasons in the league, including five seasons above 70, while starting 107 of 118 games he has played, but he’s also missed 46 games in those ten seasons, with four or more games missed in six seasons, and now he’s heading into his age 31 season. He’s good depth to have, but he might not be reliable if forced to start for an extended period of time.

At safety, the Texans lost Eric Murray, who played 857 snaps last season, but he only had a 61.7 PFF grade and the Texans almost definitely upgraded on him by trading for CJ Gardner-Johnson. Gardner-Johnson had a 76.0 PFF grade across 907 snaps last season and, while that was a career best, he’s not a one-year wonder, finishing above 60 on PFF in all six seasons in the league, including three seasons above 70. Durability has been his biggest issue, as he has missed 26 games across those six seasons, but, as long as he is healthy, he should be an above average starter, still only in his age 28 season.

Gardner-Johnson will likely start next to Calen Bullock. Bullock struggled with a 52.3 PFF grade across 977 snaps last season, but the 2024 3rd round pick could be better in his second season in the league. The alternative is Jimmie Ward, who is extremely proven, with PFF grades above 70 in five of the past six seasons, including a 76.1 PFF grade in 2024, but he is now going into his age 34 season and could decline significantly in 2025. He’s also been very injury prone throughout his career, missing 54 games in 11 seasons in the league, including 7 last season, when he was limited to just 461 snaps played. He’ll probably be a reserve this season, but he’s at least versatile, capable of playing safety and slot cornerback, he is likely to at least have a situational sub package role, and he could still have another solid year left in the tank in a reduced role. This is a solid secondary overall.

Grade: B+

Kickers

Ka’imi Fairbairn was a slightly below average kicker last season, with 1.48 points below average. He was above average on field goals of 50+, making 13 of 17, and on field goals of 40-49, making 6 of 7, but he also missed three extra points and three kicks from inside 40 yards. Overall, he’s been a slightly above average kicker in his career, accumulating 9.09 points above average in eight seasons in the league. I would expect him to be somewhere around average again in 2025, still in the prime of his career in his age 31 season.

Grade: B-

Conclusion

The Texans’ offense disappointed last season due to regression from quarterback CJ Stroud, injuries to their receiving corps, and poor play on the offensive line. Their receiving corps should be better this year, but their offensive line looks likely to be worse and their running game could easily be worse as well. This is still the best team in the AFC South by default, but they have a tough schedule and I wouldn’t consider them true contenders in the AFC.

Update: After some re-analysis of the other teams in the AFC South, the division is way more wide open than I originally thought and, while the Texans are still the best team, it is not by a wide margin and they have by far the toughest schedules in the division.

Prediction: 6-11, 4th in AFC South

Quarterback

Going into last off-season, the Texans looked like they had the worst long-term outlook in the NFL. They had gone just 11-38-1 over the previous three seasons combined and, thanks to only having one first round pick and two top-50 picks from 2018-2021, they didn’t have a pipeline of young talent that made their future look significantly brighter than their present. Given that, it’s remarkable how the Texans have turned things around so quickly, finishing the 2023 season with a 10-7 record and a playoff victory and, now going into 2024, they look like one of the most promising young teams in the league.

The biggest reason for their turnaround was the selection of franchise quarterback CJ Stroud with the 2nd overall pick in the 2023 NFL Draft, their reward for yet another terrible season in 2022 and the only real bright spot for their future rebuild. Stroud ended up having more help than it looked like he would going into the season, which I’ll get into later, but it’s not an exaggeration to say that he carried this team out of last place and into the playoffs, completing 63.9% of his passes for an average of 8.23 YPA, 23 touchdowns, and 5 interceptions, while posting a 82.8 PFF grade and going 9-6 as a starter, with two games missed due to injury. 

Stroud’s play was remarkable before even including the fact that he was a rookie, but when that’s taken into account, Stroud had one of the best rookie seasons of all-time for a quarterback. Development isn’t always linear and it’s possible Stroud isn’t quite as good again in 2024, but he also could take another step forward and, even if he doesn’t, he seems destined to be one of the top quarterbacks in the league for years to come and a potential future MVP. Simply by nailing their quarterback decision, the Texans have completely turned their fortunes around and have set themselves up for future success for years to come.

In Stroud’s absence last season, backups Davis Mills and Case Keenum each made a start and were obvious downgrades, combining to complete 56.5% of their passes for an average of 5.04 YPA, 3 touchdowns, and 3 interceptions on the season. Both are still on the roster now, but with Stroud now established as a franchise quarterback, the Texans probably don’t need to keep three quarterbacks on their roster like they did for Stroud’s rookie year, so it’s very likely one of those two will end up getting the boot before the start of the season.

Mills was a 3rd round pick by the Texans in 2021 and struggled in two years as a starter on a talentless team, completing 63.6% of his passes for an average of 6.62 YPA, 33 touchdowns, and 25 interceptions, while posting PFF grades of 58.5 and 61.9 respectively and going just 5-19-1 in his 25 starts. However, he’s still young, going into his age 26 season, and could be a solid long-term backup for Stroud. Keenum, meanwhile, has made 66 starts in 12 seasons in the league and has a decent 84.6 QB rating in his career, but he’s now going into his age 36 season and could be at the end of his rope as an NFL player. Assuming one of the two gets cut this off-season, Keenum seems like the obvious choice, especially since the Texans can save 3 million by doing so. With an elite starter and a good backup situation, the Texans have a very enviable quarterback room.

Grade: A

Receiving Corps

As I mentioned, Stroud ended up having more help last season than it appeared he would going into the season and the Texans’ receiving corps is the best example of that. Going into last season, the Texans didn’t have a single wide receiver who had exceeded 500 receiving yards in the previous season, but 3rd year player Nico Collins broke out with Stroud under center, while 3rd round rookie Tank Dell also contributed in a big way. 

Collins had shown promise before, with the 2021 3rd round pick averaging 1.68 yards per route run in limited action in 2022 despite being on a bad offense, but no one could have expected Collins to have the 2023 season he did, finishing with a 80/1297/8 slash line and 3.10 yards per route run (2nd in the league among wide receivers) in 15 games. Dell, meanwhile, entered last season with some promise, but also exceeded all expectations with a 47/709/1 slash line and 2.22 yards per route run in 11 games. Collins and Dell are still young, both in their age 25 season, and both missed time with injury last season, so we could see even more out of them in 2024. Even if they disappoint a little by last year’s standards, as still relatively unproven players, both should remain very useful passing game options for Stroud.

The Texans also took advantage of having a young franchise quarterback on a cheap rookie contract by trading away a 2025 2nd round pick to the Bills to acquire veteran Stefon Diggs, who they will pay 22.52 million this season, giving them another talented wide receiver and arguably the best wide receiver trio in the league. Diggs had his 6th straight 1000+ yard season last year, with a 107/1183/8 slash line, but there was a reason he was available this off-season, as last season was arguably his worst of those 6 seasons, with his yards per route run average dipping to 1.99 and his yards per target dipping to 7.39, down from 2.23 and 8.72 over the past five seasons combined. 

Diggs also was especially disappointing down the stretch in 2023, managing just a 47/422/1 slash line in his final 10 games including playoffs with a 1.30 yards per route run average, and he now heads into his age 31 season, which is a very common time for elite wide receivers to decline significantly. Given that, he was a risky acquisition who could disappoint, but given the position the Texans are in with a limited window in which their franchise quarterback is very underpaid, it’s understandable why the Texans made that move. 

It also wouldn’t be hard for Diggs to be an upgrade over Robert Woods, who had a 40/426/1 slash line as the third receiver last season and averaged just 1.02 yards per route run. Having three great wide receiver options for Stroud to throw to could decrease the overall production for all three of them, with only so many targets to go around, but this has a great chance to be the best wide receiver trio in the league.

The Texans still have Woods and Noah Brown, who played well as an injury replacement last season and who is an excellent #4 wide receiver, and they still have tight end Dalton Schultz, who was also a useful weapon for them in 2023. Brown finished last season with a 33/567/2 slash line on just 55 targets and a 1.94 yards per route run average, which is a big step forward for a player who had previously averaged 1.21 yards per route run in six seasons in the league. 

Even if Woods regresses in 2024, he should still be one of the best #4 wide receivers in the league and the Texans are unlikely to need much out of him, barring significant injuries ahead of him on the depth chart. Woods, meanwhile, is likely to be cut before the season starts to save 5 million. He was a high level wide receiver in his prime, averaging 1.86 yards per route run from 2016-2021, with two seasons over 1,000 yards, but he’s fallen to just 1.08 yards per route run over the past two seasons and now heads into his age 32 season. If he’s kept on the roster, it’ll be as a reserve and veteran leader, likely after taking a pay cut.

The Texans also still have John Metchie, who didn’t show much in his first season of action in 2023, with a 16/158/0 slash line and a 0.92 yards per route run average, but he’s a former 2022 2nd round pick who was in his first season back from cancer treatment in 2023, so he could easily still have untapped upside, now another year healthier. He also won’t have much of a role in 2024, but he’s great insurance to have as a #5 or #6 wide receiver. Schultz, meanwhile, had a 59/635/5 slash line with a 1.47 yards per route run average last season, in his first season in Houston after signing a 1-year, 6.25 million dollar deal in free agency last off-season. 

Extended on a 3-year, 36 million dollar deal this off-season, Schultz will still remain a useful part of this receiving corps, even with Diggs being added, though his target share will probably come down at least a little bit. Prior to joining the Texans, Schultz was franchise tagged by the Cowboys after a 2021 season in which he had a 78/808/8 slash line and a 1.47 yards per route run average, a big jump from a 63/615/4 slash line and 1.11 yards per route run average the previous year. His production fell to 57/577/5 and 1.38 yards per route run on the franchise tag in 2022, which led to him settling for a one-year deal in Houston, but a knee injury cost him two games during that 2022 season and he wasn’t really healthy until week 7, from which point he had 1.56 yards per route run and a 46/497/5 slash line in 11 games, a 71/768/8 pace over 17 games, so it’s not a surprise he was able to bounce back in a healthier season in 2023.

Schultz will probably continue being backed up by Brevin Jordan and Teagan Quitoriano, though the Texans also used a 4th round pick in this year’s draft on Cade Stover, who will also compete for a role. Jordan, a 2021 5th round pick, impressed in limited action last season with a 1.59 yards per route run average, while holding up as a blocker and playing 283 snaps total. That was a big step up from his first two seasons in the league, when he averaged just 1.06 yards per route run, but getting a new quarterback definitely helped him and he seemed to take a step forward himself, so it wouldn’t be a surprise to see him continue being a useful #2 tight end. 

Quitoriano, meanwhile, was mostly used as a blocker last season and played just 158 snaps total. A 2022 5th round pick, his career 0.98 yards per route run average isn’t terrible, but it came in very limited action and he’s a pretty mediocre blocker, so it wouldn’t be a surprise to see the rookie Stover at least beat him out for the #3 tight end job. This is a deep tight end group in arguably the best overall receiving corps in the league, led by a talented trio of wide receivers in Nico Collins, Tank Dell, and Stefon Diggs and a solid pass catching tight end in Dalton Schultz.

Grade: A

Running Backs

The Texans also acquired running back Joe Mixon in a trade with the Bengals this off-season, giving up a 7th round pick and re-signing Mixon to a new 3-year, 25.5 million dollar deal. Unlike the Diggs trade, that move isn’t a good use of resources, even for a team with financial flexibility as a result of having a cheap quarterback. Mixon has been a feature back for the Bengals for most of his career, but he hasn’t been that effective in the past few seasons, averaging just 3.99 YPC on 1,156 carries since 2019, and now he heads into his age 28 season with 1,854 career touches, which is a common time for running backs to start declining. His new contract makes him the 6th highest paid running back in the league in average annual salary and he’s not worth that much. 

Mixon will replace Devin Singletary, who averaged 4.16 YPC with 4 touchdowns on 216 carries last season and a 30/193/0 slash line with 0.65 yards per route run as a pass catcher, before signing with the Giants on a 3-year, 16.5 million dollar deal this off-season. Mixon is a better pass catcher, with a career 1.21 yards per route run average and an average 50/375/2 slash line per 17 games in his career, but the Texans still would have been better off just re-signing Singletary to a cheaper deal. 

Dameon Pierce remains as the #2 back. A 4th round pick in 2022, Pierce showed promise as a rookie, rushing for 939 yards and 4 touchdowns on 220 carries (4.27 YPC) in 13 games on an otherwise mediocre offense, but he struggled in his second season in the league on a much better offense and lost his starting job to Devin Singletary, leading to him finishing the season with just 416 yards and 2 touchdowns on 145 carries (2.87 YPC) in 14 games. Pierce has bounce back potential in 2024, but he’ll be the clear #2 back to Mixon and he’ll probably be exclusively an early down back, having averaged just 0.88 yards per route run in his two seasons in the league. Neither he nor Mixon give me a lot of confidence that this will be an efficient running game.

The Texans’ depth is lacking behind Mixon and Pierce too. Dare Ogunbowale is currently penciled in as the #3 back, but he has just 136 carries in seven seasons in the league, with a 3.36 YPC average, and now heads into his age 30 season. He could be pushed for the #3 job and a roster spot by 6th round rookie Jahwar Jordan, who is also underwhelming depth, even if he has more upside than Ogunbowale. This is an underwhelming group overall, despite the move to acquire Mixon.

Grade: B

Offensive Line

The Texans’ biggest weakness on offense last season was their offensive line, which entered the season as a position of concern and only got worse from there as injuries struck. The Texans were expecting to start left tackle Laremy Tunsil, left guard Kenyon Green, center Juice Scruggs, right guard Shaq Mason, and right tackle Tytus Howard last season, but that didn’t go according to plan at all. Howard and Scruggs didn’t make a single start in their expected spot, missing 10 games each and only seeing action at left guard, where Green missed the whole season with injury. Tunsil also missed three games, leaving Mason as their only starter to make all 17 starts. 

At center, Jarrett Patterson (7 starts) and Michael Dieter (10 starts) both saw starts, Patterson first and then Dieter after Patterson suffered a season ending injury, and both were underwhelming, with PFF grades of 60.4 and 57.1 respectively. Howard and Scruggs struggled at left guard, with PFF grades of 46.8 and 51.5 respectively, as did Kendrick Green (3 starts) who had a 58.9 PFF grade before suffering an injury of his own. At tackle, George Fant (13 starts) was the primary starter on the right side and wasn’t bad (63.5 PFF grade), while Charlie Heck and Josh Jones struggled mightily in limited action as injury reserves behind Tunsil and Fant, finishing with PFF grades of 48.3 and 49.1 respectively. Tunsil and Mason at least were above average starters, with PFF grades of 73.4 and 66.5 respectively, but they couldn’t save a unit that finished below average on PFF both in pass blocking and run blocking grade.

They should be healthier this season and better by default, but there is still reason to be concerned for this offensive line, which is still unsettled in several spots. George Fant is gone and was replaced by second round pick Blake Fisher. Fisher could start at right tackle, in which case Tytus Howard and Juice Scruggs would likely start at left guard and center respectively, with Kenyon Green and Jarrett Patterson on the bench. Tytus Howard could start at right tackle, in which case Fisher would be a reserve and then either Kenyon Green would start at left guard, or Juice Scruggs, with Jarrett Patterson at center. The Texans essentially have five offensive linemen competing for three starting spots and all have concerns.

Patterson is most likely of the five to be a reserve. He wasn’t bad in limited action last season, but he wasn’t good either and the 2023 6th round pick still profiles as a reserve long-term. Kenyon Green was a first round pick in 2022, but his career has gone about as disastrously as possible through two seasons, as he struggled mightily with a 37.7 PFF grade on 823 snaps as a rookie, before missing all of last season with injury, so he’s not guaranteed a starting role. Scruggs is probably a heavy favorite for a starting role somewhere, as the 2023 2nd round pick has the upside to be better in year two, especially if he’s healthier. 

Howard will also likely start somewhere, despite struggling last season. A 1st round pick in 2019, Howard has been inconsistent in his career, missing 22 games with injury and finishing below 60 on PFF in three of five seasons in the league, but he’s been better at right tackle than guard, most recently receiving a career best 67.9 PFF grade in 2022. Because Howard’s best spot is at right tackle, the Texans’ best offensive line probably has him there with Green and Scruggs at left guard and center respectively, but that would leave the rookie Fisher on the bench in favor of Green, who has been a massive bust to this point in his career. Expect the Texans to try multiple offensive line combinations throughout the season.

Tunsil and Mason are locked into starting roles at left tackle and right guard respectively and are the bright spots on this offensive line, though it’s worth noting they’re heading into their age 30 season and age 31 seasons respectively and could be on the decline. Mason seems to have already started to decline, as the 2015 4th round pick finished above 70 on PFF in six straight seasons from 2016-2021, with five seasons over 80, before falling to 68.9 and 66.5 over the past two seasons. 

Mason could continue declining further and, even if he doesn’t, his best days are almost definitely behind him, but he’s not totally over the hill yet and could remain at least a solid starter for another season. Tunsil, meanwhile, has shown no signs of decline thus far and, even if he starts to do so in 2024, he should remain an above average left tackle, having finished above 70 on PFF in five of the past six seasons, including a career best 80.0 as recently as 2022. That 2022 season was also the only one of Tunsil’s career in which he didn’t miss time with injury and he’s missed 23 games total in eight seasons in the league, so it wouldn’t be a surprise at all to see him miss at least a little bit more time in 2024.

Along with whichever two offensive linemen don’t win starting spots at left guard, center, and right tackle, the Texans also bring back Kendrick Green and Charlie Heck as reserves. Green was a 3rd round pick by the Steelers in 2021 and started 15 games at center as a rookie, but struggled with a 52.4 PFF grade and subsequently was a healthy inactive for all 17 games in 2022, before being traded to the Texans as part of final cuts last off-season. Green saw action at guard in Houston in 2023 and, though his struggles in that limited action make him not a legitimate starting candidate, his versatility probably will keep him on the roster as a reserve. 

Heck, meanwhile, has finished above 60 on PFF in all four seasons in the league since being drafted in the 4th round in 2020 (21 starts), but, with his rookie deal expired, he was re-signed to a one-year deal that guarantees him 650K this off-season, so he’s probably locked into a roster spot. The Texans’ offensive line should be healthier and better than it was last year by default, but they still have a lot of concerns upfront and this will likely remain a below average unit. If there is any unit that keeps this offense and all of its weapons from their potential, it will be this one.

Grade: B-

Edge Defenders

In addition to getting much more help from his receiving corps than most expected going into last season, CJ Stroud was also supported by a defense that exceeded most’s expectations. One big reason for that was rookie Will Anderson, who the Texans selected 3rd overall one pick after Stroud, trading up a future first round pick to move up and select him. It was a risky move, given that their first round pick could have been a high pick if the Texans continued to struggle like they did in recent years, but Anderson’s performed at a high level for a team that surprisingly ended up with a pick in the 20s. 

Anderson finished his rookie season with a 81.8 PFF grade on 629 snaps, playing well against the run and as a pass rusher, totaling 7 sacks, 14 hits, and a 14.5% pressure rate. As Stroud won Offensive Rookie of the Year, Anderson was the Defensive Rookie of the Year, giving the Texans impressive young building blocks on both sides of the ball. Like with Stroud, development is not always linear and there’s a chance he’s not as good again in 2024 as he was as a rookie, but he also could take another step forward and, long-term, he seems likely to be one of the best defensive players in the league for years to come.

The Texans also got a breakout year from Jonathan Greenard, a 2020 3rd round pick who had flashed promise in the past, but had struggled with injuries and hadn’t put it all together until last season, when he had a 78.2 PFF grade on 632 snaps in 15 games, playing the run well and excelling as a pass rusher, with 12.5 sacks, 11 hits, and a 11.9% pressure rate. Greenard wasn’t retained as a free agent this off-season, but the Texans did spend big to replace him, signing ex-Viking Danielle Hunter to a 2-year, 49 million dollar deal. Hunter is older than Greenard, going into his age 30 season, and could start to decline soon, but he’s also much more consistently proven than Greenard and, even if he does decline a little bit in 2024, he should be more than an adequate replacement for Greenard.

A 3rd round pick in 2015, Hunter has exceeded 70 on PFF in seven straight healthy seasons, dating back to his second season in the league, including three seasons over 80, while playing 51.7 snaps per game in 105 games. In total, Hunter has 81.5 sacks, 52 hits, and a 13.2% pressure rate over those 105 games, including 16.5 sacks, 8 hits, and a 13.0% pressure rate in 2023, when he had a 78.0 PFF grade on a career high 1,004 snaps. Even if he isn’t quite as good in 2024, he should remain at least an above average edge defender opposite Will Anderson, with Anderson and Hunter being one of the best edge defender duos in the league.

The Texans also opted not to bring back veteran Jerry Hughes, who had a 67.7 PFF grade on 474 snaps as a rotational player last season, playing at his best as a pass rusher with a 10.9% pressure rate, but who was also going into his age 36 season in 2024, which is why he wasn’t brought back. Instead, the Texans will give a bigger role to Derek Barnett, a mid-season acquisition who excelled after being cut mid-season by the Eagles, with a 90.5 PFF grade on 220 snaps in 6 games in Houston, playing the run well and excelling as a pass rusher, with 2.5 sacks, 9 hits, and a 16.4% pressure rate.

Barnett had never played at close to that level before, never surpassing 70 on PFF for a season, with a career 10.0% pressure rate, so he’s highly unlikely to continue playing at the level he played at in a limited sample size down the stretch last season, but he is a former 2017 first round pick who is only going into his age 28 season, so the talent is there and it wouldn’t surprise me if he had the best full season of his career in 2024 in a rotational reserve role behind Anderson and Hunter. The Texans could also give a bigger reserve role to 2023 4th round pick Dylan Horton, though he was underwhelming with a 55.9 PFF grade on 175 snaps and a 5.2% pressure rate as a rookie. Still, he has the upside to at least be useful in a deep rotational reserve role, behind a talented trio of edge defenders. This is a strong position group.

Grade: A

Interior Defenders

The Texans also signed a pair of hybrid players in Denico Autry and Mario Edwards who could also see action on the edge this season, but primarily they will play inside and replace free agent departures Sheldon Rankins and Maliek Collins, who had solid seasons in 2023 with PFF grades of 64.2 and 62.7 respectively on snap counts of 596 and 698 respectively. The Texans also added Folorunso Fatuaski and Tim Settle in free agency this off-season, making this an almost completely revamped position group. Kurt Hinish (465 snaps) and Khalil Davis (420 snaps) return from last season, but will probably both play smaller roles as deep reserves.

Autry is the most accomplished of the bunch, exceeding a 60 grade on PFF in seven straight seasons, including three seasons over 70 and a career best 82.8 on 531 snaps as recently as 2022, while averaging 648 snaps per season and 44.5 snaps per game over that stretch and totaling 53.5 sacks, 46 hits, and a 10.2% pressure rate. However, he’s now going into his age 34 season, so his best days are probably behind him and it wouldn’t be a surprise if he dropped off significantly in 2024. 

Autry still had a 61.7 PFF grade on 767 snaps last season, with 11.5 sacks, 5 hits, and a 10.6% pressure rate as a pass rusher, but his run defense declined significantly to 52.0, his worst run defense score since 2016. With the Texans, he will probably mostly be a sub package pass rusher, to try to minimize that he’s not as good against the run and to keep him fresh as he ages. Edwards is a similar player, but he doesn’t play as much, with an average of 332 snaps per season over the past seven seasons, with a maximum of 475 snaps in a season. In 114 career games, he has 21.5 sacks, 30 hits, and a 8.6% pressure rate, while mostly being a mediocre run stuffer. Now in his age 30 season, he could decline a little in 2024, but he should remain at least a decent situational player. 

Settle also has played sparingly throughout his career, playing an average of 293 snaps per season in his career, with a maximum of 380, since going in the 5th round back in 2018. A mediocre run stopper, Settle is at his best as a pass rusher, but he’s only decent in that aspect, with a 7.0% pressure rate. I would expect more of the same from him in 2024 in a rotational role. Fatusaki is kind of the opposite of Autry and Edwards, a solid run stuffer with just a career 5.8% pressure rate, and he figures to play a significant base package role, similar to the 463 snaps per season he played over the past five seasons. Going into his age 29 season, he should remain similar to the player he has been throughout his career.

Of the two holdovers, Khalil Davis was the better of the two last season, with a 61.7 PFF grade, as opposed to 40.0 for Kurt Hinish. Davis was a 6th round pick in 2020, but had only played 43 snaps in three seasons in the league prior to last season, so his decent 2023 season kind of came out of nowhere. He probably won’t play as much in 2024, but he could still be a decent deep reserve. Hinish, meanwhile, is a 2022 undrafted free agent who also struggled with a 49.5 PFF grade on 435 snaps as a rookie, before struggling last season. He won’t be guaranteed a roster spot in a remade position group this off-season. This is an underwhelming group, but they have some solid role players and they’re deeper than a year ago.

Grade: B-

Linebackers

One big loss on this defense this off-season is top linebacker Blake Cashman, who came out of nowhere to have a 83.7 PFF grade on 655 snaps in 13 games last season, exceeding expectations arguably more than any player on this whole roster, which is saying something considering how much of a surprise it was that this team had the success they did last season. Cashman was a total one-year wonder and likely would have regressed at least somewhat, but it’s a surprise that the Texans didn’t try to match or outbid the 3-year, 22.5 million dollar deal the Vikings signed him to, instead signing Azeez Al-Shahir to an even bigger 3-year, 34 million dollar deal.

Mostly a situational player earlier in his career with the 49ers, Al-Shahir received grades of 61.0, 64.8, and 67.8 on snap counts of 305, 730, and 313 in 2020, 2021, and 2022 respectively, only seeing an expanded snap count in 2021 because of injuries ahead of him on the depth chart, but he continued his solid play into an every down role with the Titans on a 1-year deal last season, receiving a 64.7 PFF grade on 1,101 snaps. I would expect that to continue now with the Texans, but he should still be an obvious downgrade on what Cashman gave them last season and it’s weird they paid him more than Cashman got.

Veteran run stuffer Denzel Perryman is also gone, after playing 571 snaps and receiving a 59.9 overall grade from PFF last season, with a 79.8 run defense grade and a 43.2 coverage grade. The rest of this group is basically the same as last year, with Christian Harris (755 snaps) and Henry To’oTo’o (435 snaps) likely to take on bigger roles in Perryman’s absence. A 3rd round pick in 2022, Harris struggled mightily as a rookie with a 28.3 PFF grade on 755 snaps, but he was a lot better in year two, even if being a lot better only meant that he was a capable starter, with a 60.0 PFF grade. Now going into year three, he could regress a little bit, but he could also continue being a capable starter or even take another step forward. 

To’oTo’o, meanwhile, was a 5th round rookie in 2023 and struggled mightily with a 41.7 PFF grade. He could take a step forward in year two, but he could easily continue struggling and is only locked into a role due to a lack of a better option, with their other options being career special teamer Del’Shawn Phillips (243 defensive snaps in five seasons in the league, veteran Neville Hewitt (26 defensive snaps in the past two seasons), 2022 undrafted free agent Jake Hansen (248 defensive snaps in two seasons in the league), and 6th round rookie Jamal Hill. With the loss of Blake Cashman and, to a lesser extent, Denzel Perryman this off-season, this is now a very underwhelming position group.

Grade: C+

Secondary

Along with Will Anderson, the Texans have another young building block on their defense in cornerback Derek Stingley. The 3rd overall pick in the 2022 NFL Draft, Stingley’s career got off to a pretty bad start as he struggled through an injury plagued rookie season, finishing with a 49.1 PFF grade on 599 snaps in 9 games, but he took a big step forward in year two, a big part of the reason for the Texans’ defensive improvement in 2023. Injuries were still a problem for him, as he missed six games, but when he was on the field he showed why the Texans drafted him so high, finishing with a 81.8 PFF grade on the season.

Durability has been an issue for him dating back to his collegiate days and many considered him a reach at 3 because of that, especially with Sauce Gardner still on the board, but Stingley has always had a huge upside and when healthy he should remain one of the best young cornerbacks in the league, still only in his age 23 season. If he can ever consistently put his durability issues behind him, he has the upside to be one of the best cornerbacks in the league for years to come.

The rest of this cornerback group is a concern though. Steven Nelson (71.9 PFF grade on 1,087 snaps), Tavierre Thomas (72.2 PFF grade on 352 snaps), Shaq Griffin (66.3 PFF grade on 382 snaps), and Grayland Arnold (71.4 PFF grade on 143 snaps) are all no longer on the roster after playing above average last season and in their place the Texans used a 2nd round pick on Kamari Lassiter and took fliers on former top-10 pick busts Jeff Okudah and CJ Henderson, giving them a much shakier cornerback room than the year before.

Okudah was the 3rd overall pick in the 2020 NFL Draft, but struggled mightily with a 42.5 PFF grade on 460 snaps in 9 games in an injury plagued rookie season, before tearing his achilles and missing all but 48 snaps in 2021. Okudah returned in 2022, but was only better by default, with a 59.4 PFF grade on 789 snaps, leading to him being traded to the Falcons for a late round pick, where he wasn’t any better, with a 50.5 PFF grade on 596 snaps. Still only in his age 25 season, Okudah might still have untapped upside, but is running out of time to even develop into a decent starting caliber cornerback and durability has been an issue for him throughout his career, costing him 29 games total in four seasons in the league, with at least two games missed in every season.

Henderson, meanwhile, went 9th in the 2020 NFL Draft, but lasted just over a year with the Jaguars, posting a 57.9 PFF grade on 474 snaps as a rookie and being traded early in his second season in the league to the Panthers for just a mid-round pick. With the Panthers, things didn’t get better and his rookie season is actually the best season of his career thus far, as he finished the 2021, 2022, and 2023 seasons with PFF grades of 50.7, 52.9, and 45.4 on snap counts of 390, 765, and 407, while missing 18 games total in four seasons in the league. Now in his age 26 season, Henderson does still have some theoretical upside, but like Okudah he is running out of time to develop into even a decent starting caliber player.

Okudah and Henderson were signed to 1-year deals worth just 4.75 million and 2 million respectively, but will likely have to see significant playing time in a thin position group, competing with the rookie Lassiter and veteran slot cornerback Desmond King for playing time. King had a 71.3 PFF grade on 311 snaps in 7 games last season after rejoining the team mid-season, after playing just 1 snap in a disappointing half season with the Steelers. King was with the Texans in 2021 and 2022 and has finished above 70 on PFF in five of seven seasons in the league, including a 73.2 grade on 916 snaps in 2022, but he’s not a realistic candidate to start outside, as he’s primarily a slot cornerback/safety, and he now heads into his age 30 season, so he could start to decline in 2024. Still, he should at least be useful as a versatile reserve/sub package player.

At safety, the Texans return Jalen Pitre and Jimmie Ward as starters for the second year in a row. A second round pick in 2022, Pitre has been underwhelming through two seasons in the league, with PFF grades of 57.1 and 61.6, but he’s made 32 starts already, he was a little better in year two than year one, and he has the upside to make his third season in the league his best yet. Ward, meanwhile, is going into his 11th season in the league and has been an above average starter for most of his career, including four straight seasons over 70 on PFF from 2019-2022, but durability has been a consistent problem for him, causing him to miss 47 games in 10 seasons in the league, with at least 5 games missed in six of those seasons. Now Ward heads into his age 33 season and seemed to start to decline in 2023, finishing with a 68.4 PFF grade on 506 snaps in 10 games in yet another injury plagued season. It wouldn’t be a surprise if Ward continued declining in 2024 and, even if he doesn’t, his best days are almost definitely behind him and he will likely miss more time with injury. 

DeAndre Houston-Carson struggled as the third safety and an injury fill-in when Ward was out last season, receiving a 57.2 PFF grade on 475 snaps. He wasn’t brought back this off-season, but the Texans don’t really have a better option. Veteran reserves MJ Stewart and Eric Murray remain, but Stewart hasn’t played more than 328 snaps in a season in six seasons in the league, while Murray has played just 294 snaps over the past two seasons combined, after posting grades of 53.9 and 50.9 on 941 snaps and 759 snaps respectively in 2020 and 2021, and now he’s heading into his age 30 season. The Texans used a 3rd round pick on safety Calen Bullock, who could be a future replacement for Jimmie Ward, but he also could struggle if forced into a significant role as a rookie. With less depth at cornerback and Jimmie Ward another year older, the Texans’ secondary probably won’t be as good as it was a year ago, but they’re not a bad group.

Grade: B

Conclusion

With a highly talented young quarterback on a cheap rookie quarterback in CJ Stroud, the Texans were aggressive this off-season in adding to this roster, to try to go all in and maximize their window of opportunity. However, their most notable move, the trade for Stefon Diggs, looks like an overrated move and this team still has significant concerns with their running game, offensive line, and defense, particularly in the secondary and in the linebacking corps. This should still be a playoff team in 2024, but I wouldn’t expect them to make the leap to a true Super Bowl contender like many are expecting from this team.

Prediction: 11-6, 1st in AFC South

Quarterback

The Texans have been the worst team in the NFL over the past three seasons, with records of 4-12, 4-13, and 3-13-1, collapsing after years of failed attempts to go all in for a Super Bowl, leaving them with just one first round pick and just two top-50 picks in a four year span from 2018-2021. Their lack of high draft picks severely handicapped their ability to add young talent behind their key veterans and, as many of those key veterans left in a short period of time (DeShaun Watson, DeAndre Hopkins, Jadeveon Clowney, JJ Watt, Kareem Jackson. Tyrann Mathieu, and DJ Reader, among others), the Texans were predictably left with a barren roster, leading to their recent struggles.

Fortunately for the Texans, the NFL is designed for teams not to be too bad for too long. The Texans received a trio of first round picks from the Browns in exchange for Watson, giving them two first round picks in each of the past two drafts, with their own first round picks being 3rd in 2021 and 2nd in 2022 as a result of their poor performance on the field. The Texans have also finally freed up some cap space after years of salary cap hell, allowing them to add veteran reinforcements to this young roster. The Texans probably aren’t a playoff team yet, but their recent additions give them a lot of hope for the future.

None of their recent additions is more important than the Texans’ selection of Ohio State quarterback CJ Stroud with the #2 overall pick in this year’s draft, giving the Texans what they hope is their first franchise quarterback since Deshaun Watson’s last season with the team in 2020. In the two seasons since Watson last suited up for the team, the Texans have completed 62.8% of their passes for an average of 6.46 YPA, 41 touchdowns, and 34 interceptions, as big of a reason as any for their struggles over that time. Stroud is not a sure thing, but he’s a high level quarterback prospect who is NFL ready and it won’t be hard for him to be an immediate upgrade over what the Texans have had under center in recent years, even if he has growing pains as a rookie. He figures to start week one.

Davis Mills is the quarterback who has started the most for the Texans over the past two seasons and who was by default their best quarterback, even though he completed 63.6% of his passes for an average of 6.62 YPA, 33 touchdowns, and 25 interceptions, with the team going just 5-19-1 in his starts. He’s a young quarterback in his own right, a 3rd round pick in 2021, and he has still has the upside to be at least an above average backup long-term, but it’s hard to see where he fits in Houston, with the Texans not only drafting Stroud, but also signing veteran journeyman backup Case Keenum in free agency to a contract that guarantees him 4 million, effectively locking him into a roster spot. The Texans might opt to carry three quarterbacks, but that seems unlikely and Mills probably has enough value and upside that the Texans could trade him and get something for him rather than having to cut him outright if they wanted to move on from him.

Regardless of what happens with Mills, Keenum seems like the most likely backup option. He’s going into his age 35 season now, but he’s an experienced backup/stopgap starter, with 64 starts in 11 seasons in the league, and he’s fared pretty well with a 85.2 QB rating for his career. He has made just two starts over the past three seasons, so, given his age, it’s fair to wonder how he’ll fare if forced into extended action by an injury to Stroud, but he’s still probably an above average backup option and the Texans are obviously hoping he doesn’t have to see the field. Stroud should represent an upgrade under center for the Texans in 2023, even if he struggles a little bit as a rookie.

Grade: C+

Offensive Line

One key player who remains from the last time the Texans were competitive is left tackle Laremy Tunsil, the acquisition of whom is actually part of why the Texans ended up in the situation they were in, as he cost the Texans two first round picks in a trade, one of which was the 3rd overall pick, which was subsequently traded for three more first round picks. Tunsil has been one of the Texans’ better players since being acquired, with PFF grades of 75.8, 75.4, and 80.0 in 2019, 2020, and 2022 respectively, with an injury plagued 2021 season in between, but the Texans had to give him a 3-year, 66 million dollar extension when they acquired him and then a subsequent 3-year, 75 million dollar extension this off-season to keep him long-term, making him the highest paid offensive lineman in the league in terms of average annual salary. He’s one of the better left tackles in the league and he’s still in his prime in his age 29 season, but the Texans surrendered a lot in terms of draft capital and salary to acquire and keep him.

The Texans have also spent two first round picks on the offensive line in recent years, one of whom, Tytus Howard, was their only first round pick in that 4-year stretch that I mentioned earlier. Howard hasn’t quite been worth that draft selection, but he’s posted grades of 62.1 and 67.9 on PFF in his last two seasons at right tackle in 2020 and 2022 respectively, with a failed experiment at guard (51.4 PFF grade) in 2021 in between, so he wasn’t really a bad pick either and he should remain at least a solid starting right tackle. He and Tunsil will be backed up by 2020 4th round pick Charlie Heck, who has struggled in 17 career starts, but who isn’t a horrible swing tackle option.

The other first round pick they used on this unit was Kenyon Green, who was selected 15th overall in the 2022 NFL Draft. Green subsequently had a horrendous rookie season, finishing 87th among 88 eligible guards on PFF with a 37.7 grade. He still has the upside to be a lot better long-term and, at the very least, I wouldn’t expect him to be that bad two years in a row, but he has a long way to go to at least be an average starting left guard.

The Texans also used a 2nd round pick in this year’s draft on Penn State’s Juice Scruggs, who figures to start at center as a rookie, where he almost definitely will be an upgrade on incumbent Scott Quessenberry, who finished as PFF’s worst ranked center out of 42 eligible last season with a 36.6 grade in the first extended starting experience of the 2018 5th round pick’s career. Scruggs could also struggle as a rookie as well, but just by sending Quessenberry to a reserve role, he should upgrade this offensive line at least somewhat.

Also added this off-season is veteran Shaq Mason, who the Texans acquired from the Buccaneers via trade and subsequently signed to a 3-year, 36 million dollar deal. Mason is going into his age 30 season and coming off the worst PFF grade of his career since his rookie season in 2015, but he still posted a 68.9 PFF grade, after six straight seasons of 70+ grades, including five seasons in the 80s, and he’s not totally over the hill yet, so he could have some bounce back potential. 

At the very least, Mason should give them a solid starter with the upside to be more if he can turn back the clock a little. Incumbent right guard AJ Cann wasn’t bad last season (66.6), but the Texans upgraded a little by letting Cann walk in free agency and replacing him with Mason. With Mason coming in, better play expected from Kenyon Green, and the addition of Juice Scruggs in the draft, this offensive line should be better than a year ago, but they’re still probably only about average.

Grade: B

Receiving Corps

One player the Texans lost this off-season is veteran wide receiver Brandin Cooks. Cooks is going into his age 30 season and his production (57/699/3) in 2022 was not in line with his scheduled 18 million dollar salary for 2023, but he still led the team in receiving yards in 13 games and poor quarterback play was likely as much to blame as anything for his disappointing statistical season, after surpassing 1000 yards in six of the previous seven seasons. 

The Texans probably wanted to keep Cooks, who had a 72.3 PFF grade in 2022, but Cooks had left the team for a period last year and had demanded a trade, so the Texans eventually had to give him his wish, sending him to Dallas. His 18 million dollar salary for 2023 was fully guaranteed, so the Texans had to eat 6 million in a trade that only returned a 5th round pick and 6th round pick, which is disappointing for the Texans, especially since they’re losing a key player in the process, albeit an aging and expensive one.

To replace Cooks, the Texans signed veteran Robert Woods and used a 3rd round pick on Tank Dell. They’ll also get 2022 2nd round pick John Metchie back from an illness that cost him his entire rookie season and they could get more out of 2021 3rd round pick Nico Collins. It’s unlikely any of them will give the Texans the upside Cooks would have. Dell and Metchie have upside, but neither have played in the NFL yet and will almost definitely have growing pains in their first NFL action.

Woods used to be a 1000+ yard receiver with the Rams, surpassing that mark in 2018 (86/1219/6) and 2019 (90/1134/2) and averaging a 92/1157/6 slash line per 17 games in five seasons in Los Angeles, but a bad knee injury ended his 2021 season after nine games and subsequently ended his tenure with the Rams, with the Titans acquiring him last off-season in what amounted to a salary dump of his 13 million dollar salary, 3 million of which the Rams ate as part of the trade in exchange for a late round pick. 

Woods disappointed in Tennessee in his first season back from injury, with a 53/527/2 slash line and a 1.14 yards per route run average after averaging 1.88 yards per route run with the Rams, and, as a result, he was released by the Titans ahead of 13.75 million non-guaranteed owed this season. The Texans are getting him much cheaper, on a 2-year, 15.25 million dollar deal, and he could be better another year removed from injury, but he’s also going into his age 31 season now, so his best days are almost definitely behind him, even if he happens to be somewhat better this season than a year ago.

With Woods not being a #1 caliber receiver anymore, it’s possible Nico Collins leads this team in receiving. Collins hasn’t played that much in two seasons in the league, limited to 536 snaps in 14 games as a rookie (38.3 snaps per game) and then playing a bigger role in 2022 (44.1 snaps per game), but missing seven games due to injury. However, his yards per route run average jumped from 1.24 as a rookie to 1.68 last season, despite mediocre quarterback play and he has the upside to take a step forward in year three in a bigger role with a better quarterback. He’s not likely to be a #1 caliber receiver either, but he probably has the most upside of the group.

The Texans did add veteran tight end Dalton Schultz from the Cowboys in free agency this off-season, on a 1-year, 6.25 million dollar deal and, with the lack of a true #1 receiver, Schultz figures to have a big role. Schultz was franchise tagged last off-season by the Cowboys after a 2021 season in which he had a 78/808/8 slash line and a 1.47 yards per route run average, a big jump from a 63/615/4 slash line and 1.11 yards per route run average the previous year.

His production fell to 57/577/5 and 1.38 yards per route run in 2022, but a knee injury cost him two games and he wasn’t really healthy until week 7, from which point he had 1.56 yards per route run and a 46/497/5 slash line in 11 games, a 71/768/8 pace over 17 games. He won’t have as good of quarterback play in Houston as he did in Dallas, but he’ll probably be a bigger part of the offense in Houston and he’ll almost definitely be an upgrade at the position for a team whose best tight end in 2022 had a 37/495/5 slash line.

That tight end, Jordan Akins (406 snaps), is no longer with the team, nor is OJ Howard (310 snaps), leaving 2021 5th round pick Brevin Jordan and 2022 5th round pick Teagan Quitoriano as the primary reserve options behind Schultz. Both have some upside and neither will be counted on for a big role, but both could easily see a career high in snaps, with Jordan playing just 503 snaps in two seasons in the league and Quitoriano playing just 322 snaps as a rookie, and both could struggle in a larger role. This isn’t a bad receiving corps, but they lack a #1 option and have a lot of inexperienced players.

Grade: B-

Running Backs

Starting running back Dameon Pierce was a rare bright spot on this offense last season, as the 4th round rookie rushed for 939 yards and 4 touchdowns on 220 carries (4.27 YPC) in just 13 games, while receiving a 78.9 grade from PFF. The problem was all of the Texans’ other running backs, who struggled mightily when Pierce wasn’t not on the field. Dare Ogunbowale, Royce Freeman, and Rex Burkhead were next on the team with 42 carries, 41 carries, and 26 carries respectively, but they averaged just 2.93 YPC, 2.85 YPC, and 3.08 YPC respectively.

The Texans addressed their need for running back depth by signing free agent Devin Singletary, bringing him over from the Bills on a 1-year, 2.75 million dollar deal. The Texans’ needed another running back, but Singletary is an odd fit. He still shouldn’t take more than a few carries per game away from Pierce, who is the better back, but he’s being paid a somewhat significant amount, suggesting he’ll have a role in some capacity. He also doesn’t compliment Dameon Pierce’s weakness well as, like Pierce, Singletary has struggled in the passing game in his career, averaging just 0.72 yards per route run (0.83 yards per route run for Pierce). 

It’s possible Singletary could cut into Pierce’s carries a little bit and Pierce could compensate with more usage in the passing game, but Pierce and Singletary seem too similar to be a good fit together, with Singletary as a lesser version. Singletary averaged 4.69 YPC on 672 carries in four seasons in Buffalo, but he benefited significantly from playing on one of the best offenses in the league, where there was plenty of room to run. That won’t be the case in Houston, where Pierce was still able to have success despite the lack of talent around him and Singletary may not be able to. 

The Texans may also still use holdover Dare Ogunbowale in obvious passing situations, something they did in certain situations last season (130 of his 184 snaps played were on passing downs last season). He was underwhelming in that role though, averaging just 1.04 yards per route run, and has just 1.01 yards per route run and 3.30 yards per carry for his career. If he has a significant role, it’s because the Texans just don’t trust Pierce or Singletary in passing situations. Most likely, Ogunbowale will just be a deep reserve, with Pierce and Singletary splitting work probably 2/1 on both early downs and passing downs, but it’s a situation to pay attention to.

Grade: B+

Interior Defenders

The Texans also made some significant additions on defense this off-season. At the interior defender position, their biggest addition was Sheldon Rankins, who comes over from the Jets on a 1-year, 9.5 million dollar deal after a 2022 season in which he had a 73.1 PFF grade on 558 snaps, one of the best seasons of his career. Rankins also received a 79.0 grade on 642 from PFF in 2018, but, prior to last season, he hadn’t reached that level since, limited to 738 mostly nondescript snaps in 22 games combined in injury plagued seasons in 2019 and 2020, before struggling mightily in his first season with the Jets in 2021, when he had a career worst 46.1 PFF grade. 

Rankins is a capable run defender too, but he’s at his best as a pass rusher, with 23.5 sacks, 34 hits, and a 8.1% pressure rate for his career. He’s still only in his age 29 season and the former first round pick has plenty of talent when he’s at his best, but his history of inconsistency and injury (20 games missed in seven seasons in the league) suggests that he’s unlikely to repeat last season’s performance. Still, Rankins should be a welcome addition for a Texans team that only had one interior defender receive even an average grade from PFF in 2022, Maliek Collins, who received a 65.4 on 601 snaps.

Collins remains with the team and should be the other starter inside next to Rankins. Collins’ run defense, leaves something to be desired, as he’s received a grade lower than 60 for his run defense from PFF in five of seven seasons in the league, but he’s been above 60 in pass rush grade in every season, totaling 20.5 sacks, 39 hits, and a 7.9% pressure rate in his career, and he’s finished in the 60s for overall grade in four of the past five seasons. Still in his prime in his age 28 season, I would expect more of the same from Collins in 2023.

Roy Lopez (557 snaps), Kurt Hinish (435 snaps), and Thomas Booker (206 snaps) all played significant roles last season and remain on the roster, but they all struggled, with PFF grades of 52.7, 49.5, and 35.3 respectively, and all will have to compete for reserve roles in 2023, along with veteran journeyman Hassan Ridgeway, who the Texans added in free agency. Ridgeway has been middling at best on an average of 247 snaps played per season in seven seasons in the league, so he’s not a strong reserve option, but none of the Texans other interior defenders look like strong reserve options either. 

Lopez was just a 6th round pick in 2021 and also struggled as a rookie with a 55.7 PFF grade on 502 snaps, while Hinish and Booker were rookies that went undrafted and in the 5th round respectively in 2022. It’s possible those three young players have some untapped upside, but given where they were drafted, it wouldn’t be a surprise if they never developed into even reliable rotational players. Collins and Rankins are a decent starting duo, but their lack of depth makes this an underwhelming group overall. 

Grade: C+

Edge Defenders

On the edge, the Texans’ big addition this off-season came through the draft. After using the 2nd overall pick on quarterback CJ Stroud, the Texans then traded up to the 3rd pick immediately after, surrendering the 12th overall pick they received in the Deshaun Watson trade, as well as their own first round pick next year, to select Alabama edge defender Will Anderson, widely considered the top defensive prospect in the draft and the Texans’ second choice at 2 if they had decided not to take a quarterback. 

The Texans will still have a first round pick next year from the Watson trade, but it’s still a risky move for a team like the Texans who could have a high pick again next year to give away their own pick and the Texans still probably aren’t in a position to be giving away future first round picks, considering how many recent drafts they have had without a first round pick. However, Anderson comes with a massive upside and, if he makes good on that upside, the Texans’ trade up for him will prove worth it. He probably won’t make good on that upside right away as a rookie, but he should still have a positive impact for this team.

With Anderson being added, the edge defender position looks like it will be a strength for this team in 2023. The Texans lost a trio of edge defenders who played significant roles last season, Rasheem Green (567 snaps), Ogbonnia Okoronkwo (517 snaps), and Mario Addison (367 snaps), but Green (62.4 PFF grade) and Addison (57.8 PFF grade) were underwhelming last season and, while Okoronkwo played at a pretty high level (75.1 PFF grade), the Texans should still get better edge defender play in 2022 than they had in 2023 even without Okoronkwo, in part because of the addition of Anderson, but also because they should get a healthier season out of Jonathan Greenard, who was limited to 284 middling snaps in 8 games last season by injury.

Greenard looked on his way to a breakout season in 2022, after the 2020 3rd round pick flashed in limited action in 2021, only playing 414 snaps, but receiving a 82.9 PFF grade and totaling 8 sacks, 7 hits, and a 12.6% pressure rate, despite the limited playing time. Because of that promise, Greenard’s injury plagued 2022 season (63.4 PFF grade) was disappointing, but he’s still only in his age 26 season and could easily have that breakout season in 2023 if he can stay healthy. That’s not a guarantee, considering he’s still a projection to a larger role and has only finished with better than an average grade on PFF once in three seasons in the league, but he has plenty of upside.

Greenard also probably won’t have to play a huge role in a position group that has Will Anderson, as well as veteran holdover Jerry Hughes, who had a 71.4 PFF grade across 689 snaps last season. That’s nothing new for Hughes, who has finished above 70 on PFF in nine of the previous ten seasons, excelling as a pass rusher with 61.5 sacks, 69 hits, and a 13.1% pressure rate over that span. Hughes doesn’t seem to have slowed down much, with 9 sacks, no hits, and a 15.2% pressure rate last season, and he’s only missed two games in the past 11 seasons combined, but he’s going into his age 35 season, so he could easily decline significantly this season. Even if he does though, he should at least be a capable edge defender, with the potential to be an above average option if he doesn’t decline significantly. 

Hughes, Greenard, and Anderson will rotate heavily and should form an above average edge defender trio. With those three on the depth chart, there isn’t much need for depth behind them, but veteran Jacob Martin figures to see at least some snaps as a deep reserve. Martin was added in free agency this off-season and it’s a return to Houston for him, after spending 2019-2021 with the Texans. Martin earned below average grades of 56.5 and 53.8 in limited roles in 2019 (220 snaps) and 2020 (375 snaps) respectively, but took a step forward in 2021, receiving a 67.3 PFF grade on 700 snaps. 

Martin’s solid 2021 season led to him receiving a 3-year, 13.5 million dollar deal from the Jets in free agency last off-season, but he was buried in a deep edge defender rotation in New York, playing just 152 snaps in eight games, and was traded to the Broncos mid-season for a swap of mid-round picks. With Denver, Martin played just 109 snaps in five games before going down for the season with injury and he was subsequently released this off-season, saving 5 million. Martin still had a 65.1 PFF grade across 267 snaps last season, his second straight season with a grade over 65, so he should be a good option as a deep reserve in a position group that is led by a talented trio.

Grade: B+

Linebackers

The Texans didn’t make any big additions at linebacker this off-season, but they signed a pair of veteran linebackers, Denzel Perryman and Cory Littleton, to cheap one-year deals worth 2.6 million and 2.4 million respectively and they should be valuable additions for a team who didn’t have a linebacker play more than 250 snaps and receive even an average grade from PFF in 2022. Perryman and Litteton, meanwhile, received grades of 74.2 and 72.2 respectively last season from PFF, 17th and 24th among eligible linebackers, but were available cheaply for similar reasons.

Perryman has finished above 70 on PFF four times in eight seasons in the league, including three of the past five seasons, but he’s going into his age 31 season, he’s missed 34 games in his career, while never once playing in every game in a season, and he’s been pretty inconsistent in his career, with three seasons below 60 on PFF in his career, though two were in his second and third season in the league. He’s especially been inconsistent in coverage, which, combined with his injury history, has prevented him from playing more than 600 snaps in all but one season in the league. 

Perryman has five straight seasons over 65 in run defense grade on PFF and he has a good chance to remain an above average early down linebacker in 2023, even given his age, but he figures to miss more time with injury at some point this season, he likely won’t play in many sub packages in obvious passing situations, and it’s possible his abilities drop off significantly, now on the wrong side of 30. Even still, he’s an upgrade over what the Texans had last season, and at a cheap price.

Littleton comes cheap for similar reasons, particularly his age (age 30 season) and his history of inconsistency, especially in coverage. Littleton was an above average every down linebacker in 2018 and 2019 with the Rams, finishing with PFF grades of 66.0 and 79.0 respectively on snap counts of 964 and 1,039 respectively, landing him a big contract with the Raiders. However, Littleton was a big bust with the Raiders, falling all the way to 46.3 in PFF grade on 849 snaps in his first season with the team and continuing to struggle with a 47.2 PFF grade in his second season, in which he would get benched and play just 663 snaps total. 

Littleton’s struggles with the Raiders led to him being released last off-season and landing with the Carolina Panthers, with whom he proved to be a solid base package linebacker, with a 72.2 PFF grade on 372 snaps. Littleton could play close to an every down role in Houston and he has more of a history of doing so and succeeding in coverage than Perryman, but he’s also been the worst of the two players overall in recent years and could regress back to his 2020-2021 form in an every down role again. Like Perryman, he’s an upgrade by default and comes with some potential if he can play up to his best level, but I think he’s less likely than Perryman to play up to his best and I think his floor is lower as well.

Christian Kirksey (1,139 snaps) and Christian Harris (711 snaps) are their top returning linebackers from a year ago and both figure to continue having at least some role, with Perryman and/or Littleton likely limited to base package play. Kirksey is also a veteran and he is plenty experienced with 94 starts in 114 games in nine seasons in the league, averaging 57.0 snaps played per game, but he’s finished below 60 on PFF in five straight seasons and is now going into his age 31 season, so he would almost definitely be a below average option, after a 2022 season in which he finished with a 56.1 PFF grade. 

Harris, on the other hand, was a third round rookie last season and he struggled even more, finishing dead last out of 93 eligible off ball linebackers on PFF with a 28.3 grade. He has the upside to be better in year two and is probably the best coverage athlete of the bunch, but his coverage play (29.6 PFF grade in 2022) will need to take a big step forward for him to be a reliable option in sub packages. Perryman and Littleton make this linebacking corps better by default, but they have their own problems and the rest of this group is very underwhelming. 

Grade: B-

Secondary

At cornerback, the Texans big addition this off-season was Shaq Griffin, who two off-seasons ago signed a 3-year, 40 million dollar deal with the Jaguars. Griffin was pretty good in his first season in Jacksonville, with a 72.0 PFF grade, his second season in the 70s in three years, and wasn’t bad to start last season either, with a 61.8 PFF grade in five games, but he missed the rest of the season with injury and the Jaguars subsequently cut him this off-season to avoid paying him the final 13.5 million of his contract. Griffin is still only in his age 28 season, so it’s surprising the Texans were able to get him for just 3.5 million on a one-year deal, especially since they don’t even guarantee him an opportunity to start. 

Derek Stingley was the third overall pick in last year’s draft and, even after an injury plagued rookie season in which he had a 49.1 PFF grade in 9 starts, he figures to remain locked into a starting job and has a great chance to be significantly improved in year two, even if only by default. Desmond King probably has the slot locked down, after posting a 73.2 grade last season, his 4th season above 70 in six seasons in the league. Steven Nelson is probably the most vulnerable to losing his job to Griffin, but he has a good chance to keep his job after a 66.7 PFF grade in 15 starts last season, his 7th straight season above 60 on PFF (99 starts). 

Nelson is going into his age 30 season, but, assuming he doesn’t decline significantly, he could still hold off Griffin for the starting job. The Texans also have Tavierre Thomas, primarily a special teamer, who has surprised with PFF grades of 77.6 and 70.0 on 639 snaps and 409 snaps respectively on defense over the past two seasons. He’ll probably only be a deep reserve, but he legitimately makes the Texans five deep at cornerback and, even if they don’t have a clear #1 cornerback, this is a solid group overall, especially if Stingley takes a big step forward in year two, which he has the potential to do.

At safety, the Texans added Jimmie Ward on a 2-year, 13 million dollar deal in free agency and he figures to be a massive upgrade over incumbent Jonathan Owens, who is no longer with the team after finishing 92nd out of 96 eligible safeties with a 48.3 PFF grade last season. Ward, on the other hand, has finished above 70 on PFF in four straight seasons. He comes relatively cheap in free agency because of his age, going into his age 32 season, and his injury history, 40 games missed in 9 seasons in the league, with just one season in which he played every game. He comes with some risk, but he should be a massive upgrade regardless.

Jalen Pitre also struggled last season as the other starting safety, receiving a 54.7 grade from PFF, but he was only a rookie and the former second round pick could easily take a step forward in 2023 in his second season as a starter. If he continues to struggle, it’s possible he could be benched and the Texans could leverage their cornerback depth to fill his spot, with slot cornerback Desmond King having experience at safety as well. The Texans also have solid depth at safety with Eric Murray and MJ Stewart. 

Murray has been a middling starter at best in his career, but he has made 40 starts in seven seasons in the league and is not a bad reserve option, while Stewart is not nearly as experienced, maxing out at 328 snaps in five seasons in the league, but the former second round pick has flashed in limited action with PFF grades of 83.8 and 70.1 over the past two seasons. This is a solid secondary overall, much improved last season, with Ward and Griffin being added and Stingley and Pitre going into their second seasons in the league.

Grade: B+

Conclusion

After three years of being among the worst teams in the league, the Texans are finally heading in the right direction, selecting a potential franchise quarterback high in this year’s draft and finally having cap space to add veteran reinforcements to this young roster. The result is a team that is still unlikely to make the post-season, but that should be a lot more competitive this season, after 16 losses by double digits over the past two seasons combined. I will have a final prediction at the end of the off-season when all previews are completed.

Prediction: 6-11, 4th in AFC South