Quarterback

The Vikings were the NFL’s surprise team last season. In 2023, the Vikings went just 7-10 and then in the following off-season they lost quarterback Kirk Cousins to free agency and then the quarterback they drafted to replace him, JJ McCarthy, suffered a season-ending injury before the season even began. It didn’t seem like the Vikings were about to have the season they had, but they went on to finish 14-3, led by quarterback Sam Darnold, a journeyman and former bust of a 2018 3rd overall pick, who finally showed why he was taken so high with a breakout campaign in his seventh season in the league. In terms of yards per play differential, the Vikings ranked 9th at +0.31 and in first down rate differential they ranked 6th at +2.72%.

In some ways, the Vikings’ surprise 2024 season shouldn’t have been that surprising. The Vikings did not have an impressive record in 2023, but they were better than their record suggested, as they finished positive in both first down rate differential (+1.06%) and yards per play differential (+0.35). That was despite Kirk Cousins tearing his achilles and missing the final nine games of the season. The Vikings had a sneaky good roster around the quarterback and, when Sam Darnold had his breakout year, it was the catalyst this team needed to be among the best teams in the league in 2024.

Unfortunately, the Vikings’ season last year ended with a disappointing first round exit in the post-season, when Sam Darnold got exposed against a Rams team that was one of the hottest in the league down the stretch and came the closest of any team in the post-season to beating the eventual Super Bowl Champion Eagles. With Darnold hitting free agency this off-season, the Vikings opted not to retain him, letting him sign with the Seahawks on a 3-year, 100.5 million dollar deal, deciding instead to stay the course with JJ McCarthy as their long-term franchise quarterback. 

The Vikings then used the money they saved by not paying Darnold to be aggressive upgrading the rest of their roster in free agency, which likely was also the original plan when the Vikings opted to draft McCarthy, as having a quarterback on a cheap rookie deal gives a team the flexibility needed to build up the rest of their roster. In terms of average annual value of their roster, which correlates heavily with winning percentage, the Vikings rank 7th, despite having a cheap quarterback on a rookie deal.

Many think the Vikings will take a step back in 2025, as their over/under is only set at 8.5 wins. The Vikings do have a very tough schedule, but the rest of their roster is significantly better than it was last season, going from a good supporting cast to among the best in the NFL, and it’s very possible that Darnold’s success last will prove to largely be the result of the scheme and supporting talent around him that he had last season, which now will benefit the young McCarthy instead. McCarthy obviously gives them a lower floor than what Darnold gave them last season, but it wouldn’t be a surprise to see him play similarly well and he probably possesses a higher upside than Darnold does as well.

For the Vikings part, they seem very confident in their young quarterback and his recovery from injury. The Vikings could have opted to either keep Darnold for at least another year or add veteran competition for McCarthy like Aaron Rodgers or at least add a high end backup like Joe Flacco, but instead the biggest quarterback addition they made this off-season was sending a draft pick swap to the Seattle for Sam Howell, a 2022 5th round pick who has a career 77.5 QB rating in 18 career starts. Time will tell if the Vikings made the right decision not adding a better quarterback this off-season, but McCarthy at the very least gives the Vikings a high upside at the quarterback position, while allowing the Vikings to focus their cap space elsewhere in free agency this off-season.

Grade: B-

Offensive Line

The area the Vikings spent the most resources on this off-season was their offensive line, particularly the interior of their offensive line, which proved to be a significant issue in the Vikings’ playoff loss to the Rams last season. Four players made starts for the Vikings on the interior of their offensive line last season, center Garrett Bradbury, who had a 62.1 PFF grade in 17 starts, left guard Blake Brandel, who had a 55.2 PFF grade in 17 starts, and right guards Ed Ingram and Dalton Risner, who had PFF grades of 54.0 and 67.0 in nine starts and eight starts respectively.

Of those four, only Brandel remains on the roster for 2025 and he will be a backup after all of the Vikings’ off-season additions on the interior of their offensive line. Center Ryan Kelly and right guard Will Fries were added on contracts worth 18 million over 2 years and 87.72 million over 5 years respectively and then the Vikings further added to the interior of their offensive line in the draft, using their first round pick on Ohio State’s Donovan Jackson, who figures to start at left guard. Jackson has the potential to be a solid starter as a rookie and an above average starter long-term.

Ryan Kelly has consistently pretty been an above average center throughout his career, making 121 starts in nine seasons since being a first round pick in 2016, finishing above 60 on PFF in all but one season, with four seasons above 70, including a career best 77.2 PFF grade as recently as 2023. Kelly is going into his age 32 season though, so his best days are probably behind him and, in fact, he did decline to a 67.0 PFF grade in 2024. It wouldn’t be a surprise to see him further decline in 2025, but even if he does, there is a good chance he remains at least a capable starter and a likely upgrade over Garrett Bradbury, who was only a marginal starter last season.

Will Fries, on the other hand, is not nearly as experienced, but he’s a lot younger and has a lot higher upside. A 7th round pick in 2021, Fries received PFF grades of 58.4 and 61.2 in his first two seasons as a starter in 2022 and 2023 respectively (26 combined starts), but seemed to be on his way to a breakout season in 2024, with a 86.9 PFF grade through five games, before suffering a season ending leg injury. It’s a small sample size for a player who was mediocre at best across a larger sample size the previous two seasons and it’s possible he won’t be the same right away after injury anyway, so Fries comes with a lot of risk, but the upside is obviously there if he can get past his injury and play even close to as well in 2025 as he did at the start of 2024. It also wouldn’t be hard for Fries to be an upgrade over what the Vikings had at guard last season, even if he’s not at his best.

The Vikings could also get better play at tackle in 2025 if left tackle Christian Darrisaw is able to return to form after a season ending torn ACL he suffered seven games into the 2024 season. Darrisaw had a 81.4 PFF grade last season before going down and had PFF grades of 90.3 and 82.4 in 2022 and 2023 as well, so he’s one of the best left tackles in the league when healthy, and he’s only in his age 26 season, so he should be very much in the prime of his career. The Vikings traded for Cam Robinson to replace him mid-season, but he only had a 60.5 PFF grade in 10 starts, so he was an obvious downgrade. 

When Darrisaw is healthy, he forms a dominant tackle duo with right tackle Brian O’Neill, who has PFF grades of 78.0, 73.4, 82.7, 74.5, and 80.8 over the past five seasons, while missing just four games due to injury over that stretch. He is going into his age 30 season in 2025, so he could start declining soon, but even if his decline starts in 2025, he will almost definitely remain an above average right tackle and his upside is among the best right tackles in the league.

With Cam Robinson not being retained as a free agent, the Vikings would turn to free agent acquisition Justin Skule if either of their tackles missed time with injury. Skule, a 2019 6th round pick, has only made 17 starts in six seasons in the league, but he has generally been at least solid in the three seasons in which he has made starts in his career, with a 62.3 PFF grade in eight starts in 2019, a 45.4 PFF grade in 4 starts in 2020, and a 69.2 PFF grade in 5 starts last season, though he would obviously be a big downgrade if forced to start for an extended period of time. Blake Brandel, meanwhile, will be the primary reserve on the interior and he has finished below 60 on PFF in every season in the league since being selected in the 6th round in 2020, so he’s a very underwhelming reserve option. Depth is a concern, but the Vikings have the potential to have one of the best starting five offensive lines in the league next season.

Grade: A-

Receiving Corps

The strength of the Vikings’ offense last season was their receiving corps, led by Justin Jefferson, who is one of the top wide receivers in the league. Jefferson finished last season with a 103/1533/10 slash line, a 87.2 PFF grade, and 2.50 yards per route run, which actually constituted a down year for him, as he had finished above 90 in PFF in each of his first four seasons in the league prior to last season, while exceeding his 2.50 yards per route run average in all four seasons. In total, Jefferson has averaged a 109/1641/9 slash line per 17 games in his career, while missing just seven games total in five seasons in the league. Jefferson is still only going into his age 26 season and his floor and his ceiling are both as high as any wide receiver in the league.

Jordan Addison, the Vikings’ #2 receiver, is not on the same level, but he’s a high-end #2 wide receiver. The 2023 1st round pick had a 70/911/10 slash line with 1.50 yards per route run and a 68.6 PFF grade as a rookie and a 63/875/9 slash line with 1.74 yards per route run and a 73.2 PFF grade last season. In the seven games in his career he has played without Justin Jefferson opposite him, he has 35 catches for 437 yards and 4 touchdowns, which extrapolates to a 85/1061/7 slash line over 17 games. He’s also only going into his age 23 season and has the upside to get even better. 

The Vikings also have a great receiving tight end in TJ Hockenson. Hockenson only made his debut in week 9 and played in just 10 games last season, as a result of a torn ACL that he suffered late in the 2023 season, and he probably wasn’t quite at 100%. He still finished with a 41/455/0 slash line and 1.52 yards per route run in that limited action, which extrapolates to a 70/774/0 slash line over 17 games. Hockenson will likely be back to full strength in 2025, only in his age 28 season, another year removed from the injury, and, in his last two seasons before the injury, Hockenson had slash lines of 86/914/6 and 95/960/5 on yards per route run averages of 1.60 and 1.89 respectively. He figures to be among the best receiving tight ends in the league in 2025.

With Jefferson, Addison, and Hockenson as their top receiving options, the Vikings don’t need much else from the rest of their receiving corps, but their depth isn’t bad either. Backup tight end Josh Oliver did a decent job in Hockenson’s absence last season, finishing the season with a 1.39 yards per route run average, after averaging 1.50 yards per route run in 2023. Oliver, a 2019 3rd round pick, has always been a great blocker, but he has also developed into a decent receiving option over the past two seasons and, as a result, he has PFF grades of 75.1 and 75.7 on snap counts of 467 and 553 over those two seasons respectively. He won’t be needed for a big role as long as Hockenson is healthy, but he is a high end #2 tight end who can fill in decently as the starter if needed.

Jalen Nailor was underwhelming as the #3 receiver last season, averaging 1.07 yards per route run with a 28/414/6 slash line, but his career average of 1.32 yards per route run in three seasons since being selected in the 6th round in 2022 isn’t bad and the Vikings added competition for him this off-season, using a third round pick on Maryland’s Tai Felton and taking a flier on former 2021 2nd round pick Rondale Moore, who had yards per route run averages of 1.64 and 1.47 in his first two seasons in the league respectively, before falling to 0.73 in 2023 and then missing all of 2024 with injury. He’s not the most reliable option, but, still only going into his age 25 season, he was a worthwhile flier for the Vikings to take this off-season. Led by one of the best receiving trios in the league, the Vikings’ receiving corps is the strength of an overall talented roster.

Grade: A

Running Backs

The Vikings also had a strong running game last season, with their top-2 running backs Aaron Jones and Cam Akers averaging 4.46 YPC and 4.64 YPC respectively across 255 carries and 64 carries respectively, despite underwhelming play on the interior of the Vikings’ offensive line. Akers wasn’t brought back this off-season, while Jones is heading into his age 31 season with 1,755 career touches, which makes him a strong candidate to drop off significantly, but the Vikings replaced Cam Akers with Jordan Mason, who figures to be an upgrade and who figures to be capable of taken more of the load away from Aaron Jones, who could remain effective even as he ages if he plays a lesser role.

In total, Aaron Jones has rushed for 7,078 yards and 50 touchdowns on 1432 carries (4.94 YPC) in eight seasons in the league. He’s also a very useful pass catcher, with an average 48/370/3 slash line per 17 games and 1.25 yards per route run averaged for his career. He will remain the Vikings’ primary passing down back because Jordan Mason has never shown any potential in that aspect, averaging just 0.56 yards per route run in his career. 

Mason went undrafted in 2022, but he has rushed for 1,253 yards and 7 touchdowns on 236 carries in his career (5.31 YPC), with 153 carries, 789 yards (5.16 YPC), and 3 touchdowns coming last season in 12 games, including six starts when he replaced the injured Christian McCaffrey as the lead back in San Francisco. His skill set also compliments Jones’ skill set well, as he is a bigger, more physical back at 5-11 223, while Jones is a smaller, speedier back at 5-9 208. I expect him to be a 1b to Jones’ 1a, with both running backs rotating heavily. 

If either Jones or Mason miss time with injury, the other would likely take on a feature back role, with third string running back Ty Chandler mixing in for a few touches here and there. Chandler began last season as the #2 back, but only averaged 3.25 YPC on 56 carries, leading to the Vikings acquiring Cam Akers mid-season to play ahead of him. Chandler, a 2022 5th round pick, has averaged just 4.04 YPC on 164 carries in three seasons in the league, while averaging 1.07 yards per route run as a receiver. He’s not a bad #3 running back, but the Vikings will almost definitely try to avoid using him in a significant role, even if one of their top-2 backs are injured. Led by a talented duo of Aaron Jones and Jordan Mason, this is a solid backfield.

Grade: A-

Interior Defenders

Along with their offensive line, the interior defender position is another spot where the Vikings spent significant money this off-season. This was much needed because all four of the Vikings’ top-4 interior defenders in terms of snaps played last season finished with PFF grades below 60. Harrison Phillips (672 snaps), Jonathan Bullard (571 snaps), Jerry Tillery (467 snaps), and Jihad Ward (467 snaps) finished with PFF grades of 58.8, 56.1, 51.6, and 51.5 respectively.

To try to upgrade this position group in a big way, the Vikings handed out contracts worth 51 million over 3 years and 30 million over 2 years respectively to Jonathan Allen and Javon Hargrave. Both Allen and Hargrave have had some big years, but both are on the wrong side of 30, going into their age 30 and age 32 seasons respectively, and both are coming off injury plagued 2024 seasons, limited to 300 snaps in eight games and 104 snaps in three games respectively.

Allen had mostly been durable throughout his career prior to last season, missing just three total games in the previous six seasons combined, despite averaging 49.5 snaps per game, so it seems unlikely he will miss significant time with injury again in 2025. However, Allen also had a down year in 2024 even when on the field, finishing with a 63.0 PFF grade as a pass rusher and averaging just a 8.9% pressure rate, which are not bad, but those are disappointing numbers for him, as he had surpassed 75 in PFF pass rush grade in each of the previous four seasons, while totaling 24 sacks, 50 hits, and a 10.6% pressure rate in 65 games. 

Allen has also never been a good run defender and his run defense has gotten even worse in the past two seasons, with PFF grades of 37.9 and 41.3 against the run in 2023 and 2024 respectively, so the Vikings will need Allen to bounce back as a pass rusher to compensate for his lack of run defense. He’s not totally over the hill though, so it wouldn’t be a surprise if he did bounce back at least somewhat if he can stay healthy. Hargrave is also a much better pass rusher than run defender, finishing below 60 on PFF in run defense grade in each of the past five seasons, while totaling 45.5 sacks, 34 hits, and a 11.3% pressure rate in 130 career games, including 35 sacks, 29 hits, and a 12.4% pressure rate in 83 games over the past six seasons. 

Hargrave still had a 12.7% pressure rate in very limited action last season before getting hurt and he had only missed four total games due to injury in eight seasons in the league prior to last season, so he’s not an injury prone player, but now being another year older and coming off of a significant injury, it’s fair to wonder if he will decline in 2025. Both Allen and Hargrave come with risks, but it wouldn’t be hard for them to be better than the players they are replacing in Minnesota.

Of the Vikings’ top-4 interior defenders last season, only Harrison Phillips returns and he was probably the best of them by default. He also has had better years in the past and, only in his age 29 season, he has some bounce back potential. He’s a better run defender than Allen or Hargrave, finishing above 60 on PFF in run defense in three straight seasons prior to last season, including a pair of seasons over 70, but he only has a 5.6% pressure rate in his career, which fell to 4.2% last season. He’s an underwhelming overall option, but he at least has bounce back potential as a run defender and the Vikings won’t be relying on him as their top interior defender anymore. 

The Vikings’ best interior defender last season was probably Jalen Redmond, who had a 77.2 PFF grade, especially excelling against the run, but he only played 208 snaps. Redmond is a 2023 undrafted free agent who had never played a snap prior to last season, so he’s very unproven, but he showed a lot of potential last season and 155 of those 208 snaps came in his final seven games of the season, so he earned himself a consistent role as a situational run stopper down the stretch last season and he should carry that into 2025.

Other reserve options for the Vikings including 5th round rookie Tyrion Ingram-Dawkins, 2024 7th round pick Levi Drake Rodriguez, who played just 7 snaps as a rookie, and veteran journeyman Jonathan Harris, who has finished above 60 on PFF just once in six seasons in the league and who only played 133 snaps for the Panthers last season, when he had just a 49.0 PFF grade. None of them are likely to have a significant role unless there are significant injuries ahead of them on the depth chart. This interior defender group still has concerns, but overall this looks like a better group than last year, perhaps a much better group if everyone can stay healthy and play at their best.

Grade: B

Edge Defenders

The Vikings’ edge defenders were the strength of their defense last season. Starters Jonathan Greenard and Andrew Van Ginkel finished the season with PFF grades of 80.8 and 70.8 across snap counts of 916 and 920 respectively. Both especially excelled as a pass rusher, with Greenard totaling 12 sacks, 9 hits, and a 15.0% pressure rate and Van Ginkel totaling 11.5 sacks, 9 hits, and a 11.8% pressure rate. Both have similar stories, starting out as high level rotational players, breaking out in an every down role in 2023, and then signing with the Vikings last off-season and continuing their high level play in 2024.

Greenard only played 963 total snaps in the first three seasons of his career after being a 2020 3rd round pick, in part due to missing a combined 16 games due to injury, but he showed his promise with a 82.9 PFF grade across 414 snaps in 2021 and then broke out in 2023 with a 78.2 PFF grade across 632 snaps, while totaling 12.5 sacks, 11 hits, and a 11.9% pressure rate. The Vikings signed him to a 4-year, 76 million dollar deal last off-season, making him only the 14th highest paid edge defender in the league in average annual salary, and he proved to be a steal when he had another dominant season as an every down player in 2024. Greenard is still only going into his age 28 season and he seems to have put his injury issues behind him, missing just two games over the past two seasons, so he should continue playing at a high level in 2025.

Van Ginkel, meanwhile, was a 5th round pick in 2019 and played fewer than 500 snaps in three of his first four seasons in the league, but he had a 79.3 PFF grade on 479 snaps in 2020 and a 74.8 PFF grade on 333 snaps in 2022, before breaking out with a 91.1 PFF grade across 727 snaps in 2023, while totaling 6 sacks, 15 hits, and a 16.5% pressure rate. The Vikings got him for only 20 million over 2 years last off-season, which proved to be an even bigger steal than Greenard, and he deservedly got a raise this off-season, when the Vikings added another 1 year and 23 million onto his deal ahead of what would have been his contract year in 2025. Van Ginkel’s age is a minor concern, heading into his age 30 season, but even if he regresses a little bit, he should remain at least an above average every down starter.

The Vikings lost Patrick Jones in free agency and he did have 7 sacks last season in a part-time role, but his peripheral pass rush stats of 4 hits and a 7.6% pressure rate were not nearly as good as his sack total and he finished with only a 55.8 PFF grade across 459 snaps, so he won’t be missed much, especially since the VIkings have 2024 1st round pick Dallas Turner waiting in the wings and ready to play a significant role behind Greenard and Van Ginkel. 

Turner got off to a slow start in 2024, with just a 6.3% pressure rate in his first six games, when he played just 85 snaps, but his pressure rate improved to 9.4% from that point on and his playing time increased alongside his improving play, as he played 217 snaps in his last 10 games. Turner figures to have an even bigger role this season and has all the talent to have a second year breakout year. Even if he doesn’t have a big breakout, he figures to be a high end rotational reserve, at the very least.

With Greenard, Van Ginkel, and Turner set to all play heavy snaps, the Vikings don’t have much need for depth outside of their top-3, but they would if any of their top-3 missed time with injury and they don’t really have a good fourth option. Bo Richter and Gabriel Murphy are 2024 undrafted free agents who played 30 nondescript snaps and 35 nondescript snaps respectively as rookies and they are really the only other options the Vikings have on the roster. Still, given how talented the Vikings’ top-3 are, their lack of depth beyond them is only a minor concern.

Grade: A-

Linebackers

The Vikings also got a great free agent value last off-season with Blake Cashman, who was signed to a 3-year, 22.5 million dollar deal. Cashman, a 2019 5th round pick, played just 609 snaps in his first four seasons in the league, largely due to injuries that cost him 36 games total in those four seasons, and he was never more than a middling player when he was on the field, so it came as a shock when he had a 83.7 PFF grade in 2023 and it was fair to wonder if he would continue that level of play, especially since he again missed another three games due to injury that season. 

Cashman wasn’t quite as good in 2024, but he still had an above average 71.6 PFF grade, while playing a career high 894 snaps. Still only going into his age 29 season, with back-to-back above average seasons under his belt, it seems likely Cashman will remain an above average starter in 2025, though it’s worth noting that even with his career high in snaps last season, he still missed three games, so he remains an injury prone player who is likely to miss time again at some point this season.

Cashman will start next to Ivan Pace, who also had a surprisingly good season in 2023, when he had a 77.1 PFF grade across 704 snaps despite being an undrafted rookie. Pace wasn’t quite as good in 2024, but he still had a decent 64.6 PFF grade, though he was limited to 412 snaps in 11 games. Pace should play more in 2025, not just because he probably won’t miss as much time with injury, but because the Vikings don’t have the safety depth they had last season and probably won’t use three safeties at the same time in sub packages as much as they did last season, which I will talk more about later. Pace showed he was capable of playing close to an every down role in 2023, so he should be able to handle the higher snap count. He and Cashman should at least be a solid linebacker duo.

The Vikings also upgraded their linebacker depth this off-season. Kamu Grugier-Hill was the Vikings third linebacker last season and he was terrible, finishing with a 36.4 PFF grade across 182 snaps and barely seeing action even when Cashman or Pace missed time with injury. The Vikings didn’t bring him back this off-season and instead replaced him with veteran Eric Wilson. A 9-year veteran, Wilson struggled in the one season in his career in which he played an every down role, finishing with a 53.5 PFF grade across 1,034 snaps in 2020, but he finished with grades in the 60s in each of his next three highest snap totals in his career, with a 62.7 PFF grade across 336 snaps in 2018, a 67.6 PFF grade across 380 snaps in 2019, and a 65.8 PFF grade across 556 snaps last season. Wilson is heading into his age 31 season, but barring a massive dropoff, he’s a good insurance option to have. The Vikings additionally added another linebacker Kobe King in the 6th round of the draft to give themselves additional depth. With a solid starting duo and capable depth, the Vikings have an above average linebacker group.

Grade: B+

Secondary

As I mentioned, the Vikings aren’t as deep at safety this season. Last season, Harrison Smith, Camryn Bynum, and Josh Metellus all essentially played every down roles last season, with one of them, most typically Metellus, essentially serving either as the slot cornerback or as a linebacker, depending on the situation. Those three finished the season with snap counts of 1,009, 1,028, and 990 respectively and all three were solid, with PFF grades of 66.2, 63.0, and 67.6 respectively. 

This off-season, Bynum signed with the Colts without being replaced. Making matters worse, Harrison Smith is going into his age 36 season and is clearly on the decline. He has seen his PFF grade decline in four straight seasons and his PFF grade last season was the second worst of his 13-year career, which has featured nine seasons above 70 on PFF and five seasons above 80. Smith could easily continue declining in 2025 and it wouldn’t surprise to see him be a liability.

Metellus could remain a solid starter, but versatility is a big part of his value and his game could suffer if the Vikings’ lack of safety depth gives him fewer opportunities to play other positions this season. Metellus was only a 6th round pick in 2020, but he has far exceeded his draft position. He first flashed potential in his third season in the league in 2022, when he had a 85.1 PFF grade across 259 snaps, after playing just 70 snaps combined in his first two seasons in the league. He hasn’t quite been that good in an every down role over the past two seasons, but he had a 69.2 PFF grade across 1,063 snaps in 2023, before having a similar season again in 2024. Still only in his age 27 season, he could have another similar season again in 2024, but his role will probably be different and that could hurt his effectiveness.

Theo Jackson was the Vikings’ fourth safety last season and he will probably see at least a situational role this season. The 2022 6th round pick has only played 221 snaps in three seasons in the league, including just 78 last season, but he has shown potential, with PFF grades of 85.0, 67.6, and 79.2. He’s a projection to a larger role and is unlikely to see anywhere near as big of a role as Camryn Bynum had last season, but he’s not a bad third safety option and he clearly has upside.

The Vikings also lost a pair of cornerbacks this off-season, not bringing back Stephon Gilmore and Shaq Griffin, who had PFF grades of 63.9 and 64.3 respectively, across snap counts of 860 and 572 respectively. They should be in decent shape to replace them though. To replace one of them, Mekhi Blackmon is likely to take over as a starter. The 2023 3rd round pick flashed potential with a 71.8 PFF grade across 434 snaps as a rookie and was set to be a starter last season until he suffered a season-ending injury before the season even started. Blackmon is still unproven and coming back from a major injury complicates his development, but he has plenty of upside and could easily prove to be at least a solid starter.

The Vikings also signed Isaiah Rodgers, who has shown a lot of potential in part time roles in his career, finishing with a 70.7 PFF grade across 525 snaps in 2021, a 82.1 PFF grade across 434 snaps in 2022, and a 76.0 PFF grade across 329 snaps last season, with a 2023 season lost to suspension in between. He’s a projection to a larger role, but even if he isn’t quite as good in a larger role as he was in a part-time role, he could still easily be an above average player. 

The Vikings did bring back top cornerback Byron Murphy, re-signing him on a 3-year, 54 million dollar deal, after he had a 72.8 PFF grade last season. Murphy had never had a season that good before and it came in his sixth season in the league, after finishing below 60 on PFF in three of his first five seasons in the league, so it’s possible last season could prove to be a fluke, but he’s also still only going into his age 27 season, so it’s possible last season could prove to be a lasting breakout season for the 2019 2nd round pick.

For depth, the Vikings signed veteran Tavierre Thomas, Jeff Okudah, and Ambry Thomas this off-season. Thomas only played 46 snaps last season, but in his three previous seasons he had PFF grades of 77.6, 70.0, and 72.2 on snap counts of 639, 409, and 352 respectively, primarily as a slot cornerback, and he should be able to fill in as a solid slot specialist if needed. Okudah was once the third overall pick in the draft and is still only going into his age 26 season, but he’s finished below 60 on PFF in all five seasons in the league, while missing 40 games due to injury and averaging just 394 snaps per season. He was a worthwhile flier for the Vikings to take, but I wouldn’t expect much from him. 

Ambry Thomas was a 3rd round pick in 2021 and had a 71.5 PFF grade across 482 snaps in 2023, but that is his only season above 60 on PFF in his career and he’s played just 375 snaps in his other three seasons in the league combined, with none of them coming last season, when he missed the entire season due to injury. Overall, I would say those three reserves are better depth than most teams have and that all three have upside, but there is also a reason they are reserves and were available cheaply this off-season. The Vikings had some off-season losses in the secondary this off-season, but this still looks like at least a decent group overall.

Grade: B

Kicker

The Vikings used a sixth round pick in the 2024 NFL Draft on a kicker Will Reichard and he had about a league average first season in the league, accounting for just 0.30 points above average, making 24 of 30 field goals, including 8 of 11 from 50+, while also making all 38 of his extra points. Going into his second season in the league in 2025, it wouldn’t be a surprise to see Reichard take a step forward and, even if he doesn’t, I would expect him to at least be a league average kicker once again.

Grade: B

Conclusion

The Vikings didn’t bring back quarterback Sam Darnold this off-season, but they took advantage of having JJ McCarthy on a cheap rookie deal and were aggressive in spending money to build up the rest of this roster even further, particularly addressing needs on the interior of their offensive and defensive lines, as well as at running back. The result is a Vikings team that has one of the best rosters in the league outside of the quarterback position. 

The quarterback position is the big mystery, with McCarthy coming off of a major injury and having never thrown a pass in the NFL, but he came into the league with a lot of upside and he has a great situation around him, between his supporting cast and the Vikings’ coaching staff. It’s very possible that Darnold’s success last season will prove to largely be the result of the situation he was in and that JJ McCarthy can also have success. That may be a big if, but if that is the case, the Vikings should be considered one of the favorites for the Super Bowl, given the overall talent on this roster. Even if McCarthy isn’t quite as good as Darnold, the Vikings should still compete for a playoff spot.

Prediction: 10-7, 3rd in NFC North

Quarterback

Six off-seasons ago, the Vikings made a big decision to sign veteran quarterback Kirk Cousins in free agency. The Vikings had just made the NFC Championship game with third string quarterback Case Keenum, who surprisingly played at a high level, but felt Keenum couldn’t would not repeat that level of play and opted to give big money to Cousins, who they felt was the missing piece on a strong overall roster. Cousins was initially signed to a 3-year, 84 million dollar deal and ultimately took him 185 million during his six seasons in Minnesota, but as a result of that, the Vikings found it hard to keep talent around the quarterback, which combined with untimely injuries and key players getting older, led to the Vikings going 50-37-1 with Cousins under center and winning just one playoff game.

Cousins himself wasn’t bad at all, completing 67.9% of his passes for an average of 7.55 YPA, 171 touchdowns, and 55 interceptions, but the track record of non-elite quarterbacks being paid at the highest level is not good, with the only quarterbacks who have accounted for more than 11% of their team’s cap and won the Super Bowl being Hall of Famers or future Hall of Famers. Cousins is good enough to win a Super Bowl, but only on a team loaded with talent, the kind of talent that is very hard to keep around a quarterback who is one of the highest paid in the league.

This off-season, the Vikings opted to move on from Cousins and not get into a bidding war with the Atlanta Falcons for his services, with Cousins signing a 4-year, 180 million dollar deal that makes him the 8th highest paid quarterback in the league by average annual salary, despite the fact that Cousins now heads into his age 36 season and is coming off of a torn Achilles tendon. Instead, the Vikings used a first round pick on quarterback JJ McCarthy and will attempt to surround McCarthy with enough talent to compete for a Super Bowl while he is still on his cheap rookie contract.

That might have been the better of the Vikings’ two options, but McCarthy enters the league very raw and, even on a cheap contract, his chances of leading this team deeper in the playoffs than Cousins did depends on him developing into the kind of quarterback worth the 10th overall pick, which is far from a guarantee. In year one, McCarthy will compete with veteran journeyman Sam Darnold for the starting job, a competition McCarthy could easily lose. 

Darnold is a former high draft pick in his own right, going 3rd overall in the 2018 NFL Draft. He struggled early in his career as a starter with the Jets and Panthers, completing just 59.8% of his passes for an average of 6.54 YPA, 54 touchdowns, and 52 interceptions in 49 starts in his first four seasons in the league, but he had terrible coaching and a terrible supporting cast early in his career and he’s shown signs of improvement in a limited sample size in better situations over the past two seasons, completing 59.1% of his passes for an average of 7.74 YPA, 9 touchdowns, and 4 interceptions in 7 starts.

Still only in his age 27 season, Darnold is a worthwhile reclamation project on a 1-year, 10 million dollar contract and he definitely has a chance to hold off McCarthy for the starting job, at least to begin the season. Either way, I wouldn’t expect much out of the quarterback position in Minnesota this season, but it’s understandable why the Vikings hit the reset button at the position this off-season, rather than doubling down on an expensive, aging Kirk Cousins. If McCarthy develops as expected long-term, the Vikings will be able to spend money to load up on talent around him and try to make the deep playoff run that they failed to make in Cousins’ tenure with the team.

Grade: C+

Receiving Corps

The Vikings didn’t make many big additions this off-season around their new quarterback, but the good news is the Vikings were actually a lot better than their 7-10 record suggested last season, finishing with a positive first down rate differential (+1.06%) and a positive yards per play differential (+0.35). That’s despite the fact that they got shaky quarterback play in Kirk Cousins’ absence, with their other quarterbacks completing 65.0% of their passes for an average of 7.40 YPA, 12 touchdowns, and 14 interceptions over 9 starts, and that’s despite the fact that their top offensive weapon Justin Jefferson missed 7 games with injuries of his own.

Jefferson is one of the best players in the league at any position and having him likely playing more games than he did a year ago should be a big boost for this offense. A first round pick in 2020, Jefferson had slash lines of 88/1400/7, 108/1616/10, and 128/1809/8 in his first three seasons in the league respectively and in 2023 he had a 68/1075/5 slash line, despite playing just 10 games and having shaky quarterback play for much of those 10 games. 

In total, Jefferson has averaged 2.67 yards per route run in four seasons in the league and, still only in his age 25 season, he has plenty more of his prime to go. With the money the Vikings saved from not re-signing Cousins, the Vikings were able to extend Jefferson this off-season on a much deserved 4-year, 140 million dollar deal that makes him the highest paid non-quarterback in the league, ahead of what would have been the final year of his rookie deal in 2024.

With Jefferson missing a big chunk of the season last season, first round rookie Jordan Addison took on a bigger role than expected and he did well with it, considering it was only his first year in the league. He finished with a 70/911/10 slash line on 108 targets with 1.50 yards per route run and was even better in the seven games Jefferson missed, producing a slash line that extrapolates to 85/1061/10 on 129 targets over a full 17 game season. He’ll play more of a supporting role in 2024, but could easily take a step forward in efficiency in his second season in the league. With Jefferson opposite him, the Vikings have a 1-2 punch at wide receiver that has the upside to be as good as any in the league.

Tight end TJ Hockenson also had a big role last season with Jefferson missing time, averaging 1.89 yards per route run (5th) and totaling a 95/960/5 slash line on 127 targets. Unfortunately, he tore his ACL in week 16 and is now questionable for the start of the 2024 season, only about 8 months removed from the injury when the season kicks off. Even if he does make it back for week 1, it’s far from a guarantee that he’ll play at his top form in his first season back from injury. Hockenson is a former first round pick who is only in his age 27 season and had a 86/914/6 slash line with 1.60 yards per route run in 2022, so he’s more than capable of repeating last season’s performance if he’s healthy, but that’s a big question mark.

If Hockenson is out to start the season, Robert Tonyan will likely be the Vikings’ primary pass catching tight end. Tonyan had a 52/586/10 slash line with a 1.58 yards per route run average in 2020, but he benefited significantly from playing with an MVP level Aaron Rodgers and he hasn’t been the same since, averaging just 1.08 yards per route run over the past three seasons combined. Now going into his age 30 season, his best days are almost definitely behind him, but he could be a decent injury fill-in for a few games if needed. The Vikings also have Josh Oliver, who was the #2 tight end last season, but he’s just a good blocker, with run blocking grades of 74.6 and 73.9 in 2022 and 2023 respectively, but just 48 catches in 52 career games with a 0.94 yards per route run average, so he’s not really a candidate for an expanded passing game role even if Hockenson misses time.

The Vikings also lost #3 receiver KJ Osburn in free agency this off-season and he played a significant role last season with Jefferson missing time, totaling a 48/540/3 slash line on 75 targets, but he only averaged 0.97 yards per route run and has just a 1.11 yards per route run average for his career, so if he’s missed, it’ll only be because the Vikings didn’t do much to replace him this off-season, leaving the #3 receiver job to Brandon Powell, a career special teamer who had only a 1.13 yards per route run average last season when forced into a significant role by Jefferson’s injury, or to Trent Sherfield, a veteran journeyman with a career 0.84 yards per route run average and their only addition at the position this off-season. 

The Vikings also have 2022 6th round pick Jalen Nailor, but he has just 12 catches in two seasons in the league, so he’s unlikely to be a big factor either. The Vikings will need both Jefferson and Addison to stay healthy because they really lack depth behind them. With Jefferson, Addison, and Hockenson, the Vikings have a great top trio of pass catchers, but this is a very top heavy group and Hockenson is coming off of a serious injury, which affects the overall grade of this group.

Grade: A-

Running Backs

One big addition the Vikings made on offense this off-season was signing running back Aaron Jones away from division rival Green Bay. Running back was a big position of need this off-season, as the Vikings ranked 24th in the NFL with a 3.95 YPC average and 29th with 1,553 total rushing yards last season, despite ranking 10th on PFF in team run blocking grade. Jones, meanwhile, averaged 5.05 YPC with 45 touchdowns on 1,177 carries in seven seasons in the league with the Packers, including a 4.62 YPC average and 2 touchdowns on 142 carries last season. Jones also contributes in the passing game, with a career 1.24 yards per route run average and a career 48/364/3 slash line average per 17 games.

However, Jones is now heading into his age 30 season, which is a common age for running backs to drop off significantly, especially undersized, injury prone backs like Jones, who is just 5-9 208 and who has missed time in 5 of his 7 seasons in the league, totaling 18 missed games, with 6 of those coming just last season. The Vikings didn’t break the bank for Jones, nor did they make a significant long-term commitment, signing him to a 1-year, 7 million dollar deal, but that does make him the 10th highest paid running back in the league in average annual salary and it’s very possible Jones proves not to be worth that salary. Still, Jones should be an upgrade over what they had a year ago, when they had one of the league’s worst running back rooms. 

Ty Chandler was the best of the bunch a year ago, with 461 yards and 3 touchdowns on 102 carries (4.52 YPC), despite being only a 5th round pick in 2022 and only having 6 carries as a rookie prior to last season. He’s probably not suited to be a starter, but you could do worse than him as a #2 back and he should be more than capable of spelling Jones for a few touches here and there. The Vikings will need their top-2 backs to stay healthy though, as their depth behind Jones and Chandler consists of return man Kene Nwangwu, who has 27 carries in 3 seasons in the league, journeyman Myles Gaskin, who has a career 3.75 YPC average on 361 carries in five seasons in the league, and 2023 7th round pick DeWayne McBride, who spent his entire rookie season on the practice squad, despite a weak running back room ahead of him. The addition of Jones improves this group, but Jones’ age and injury history are significant concerns.

Grade: B+

Offensive Line

Not much changed on the offensive line for the Vikings this off-season. The Vikings did make a change at the left guard position mid-season in 2023 though. Ezra Cleveland began last season as the starter at that spot and had an impressive 73.6 PFF grade in 6 games, but the Vikings opted to trade him at the deadline for a draft pick, with Cleveland set to hit free agency the following off-season. Dalton Risner took his place and mostly struggled, finishing with a 57.1 PFF grade on 745 snaps. Risner was still brought back as a free agent this off-season though and he could be better, finishing in the 60s on PFF in each of his previous four seasons as a starter (62 starts).

The rest of this group is the same as it was all last season. Center Garrett Bradbury and right guard Ed Ingram were mediocre last season with PFF grades of 60.9 and 59.5 respectively, but neither has much real competition for their job, with the alternatives being veteran journeyman Dan Feeney, who posted PFF grades of 49.2, 51.7, and 48.2 in three seasons as a starter from 2018-2020 and has subsequently played just 384 snaps in three seasons since, and Blake Brandel, 2020 6th round pick, who has been mediocre in limited action thus far in his career, playing just 502 snaps in four seasons in the league and finishing below 60 on PFF in every season. 

Bradbury was a first round pick in 2019 and has made 71 starts in five seasons in the league, but he has never been much more than a capable starter, maxing out with a 70.2 PFF grade in 2022, and he’s already heading into his age 29 season, so it’s unlikely he has much untapped talent at this point. Ingram, meanwhile, was a 2nd round pick in 2022 and also struggled with a 57.1 PFF grade as a rookie. He’s still young enough that there’s a good chance he takes a step forward in year three in 2024, but I wouldn’t expect a lot out of him either.

The tackle position is in much better shape, as left tackle Christian Darrisaw and right tackle Brian O’Neill are among the best tackle duos in the league. Darrisaw was a first round pick in 2021 and has more than lived up to his billing, receiving grades of 71.9, 90.3, and 82.4 from PFF in his first three seasons in the league respectively, making him already one of the best left tackles in the league, only going into his age 25 season. 

O’Neill isn’t quite as good, but he’s been incredibly consistent throughout his career as the 2018 2nd round pick has received a grade of 70 or higher from PFF in five straight seasons, dating back to his second season in the league. Still only in his age 29 season, I would expect more of the same from him in 2024. The Vikings also have veteran swing tackle David Quessenberry,  who has been decent in limited action as a starter over the past four seasons, with PFF grades of 61.7, 80.6, 59.3, and 64.8 in a total of 30 starts, though he’s now heading into his age 34 season. The Vikings tackles significantly elevate an otherwise mediocre offensive line.

Grade: B+

Edge Defenders

The Vikings made some big additions on defense, but the biggest one was more of a lateral move, as they allowed edge defender Danielle Hunter to sign a 2-year, 49 million dollar deal with the Texans and replaced him with a former Texan, Jonathan Greenard, who they signed to a 4-year, 76 million dollar deal. Hunter received a PFF grade of 78.0 on 1,004 snaps last season, with 16.5 sacks, 8 hits, and a 13.0% pressure rate as a pass rusher, which would normally be a lot to replace, but Greenard had a 76.7 PFF grade on 697 snaps, with 12.5 sacks, 12 hits, and a 12.0% pressure rate as a pass rusher, so he won’t be much of a downgrade. He probably won’t play as many snaps as Hunter did, but he could easily match Hunter’s level of play.

Hunter does have more of a proven track record, as Greenard had played just 963 snaps in his first three seasons in the league prior to last season, in large part due to injury, and only had a 8.9% pressure rate over those three seasons, but Greenard is also significantly younger, going into his age 27 season, while Hunter goes into his age 30 season, so Greenard could easily be the better player over the next few seasons. Greenard might not be as good in 2024 as he was in 2023 and injuries are a concern, as he’s missed 18 games in four seasons in the league, but he has a good chance to remain at least an above average edge defender as long as he can stay on the field.

The Hunter/Greenard swap wasn’t the only move the Vikings made at the edge defender position, as they completely overhauled this group this off-season. DJ Wonnum, who was second among Vikings edge defenders with 826 snaps played, wasn’t brought back, which isn’t a huge loss as he only had a 62.3 overall PFF grade and a 8.2% pressure rate. The Vikings will be replacing him with another free agent signing, ex-Dolphin Andrew Van Ginkel, as well as rookie Dallas Turner, who the Vikings moved back up into the first round to select. Van Ginkel was only signed to a 2-year, 20 million dollar deal, but he could prove to be a steal if he plays anything like he did last season when he received a 91.1 PFF grade on 727 snaps, excelling as a pass rusher, run defender, and in coverage. In total, he had 6 sacks, 15 hits, and a 16.5% pressure rate. 

Van Ginkel is a one-year wonder in terms of playing at the level he played at last season on the snap count he played at last season, but he did have 10 sacks, 27 hits, and a 12.2% pressure rate in the previous three seasons combined, while excelling against the run and playing an average of 538 snaps per season, so last season’s breakout year didn’t come out of nowhere. Van Ginkel is only a former 5th round pick, selected in the 2019 NFL Draft, but he’s also still only in his age 29 season and could easily continue playing at least at an above average level in 2024. Van Ginkel, Greenard, and the rookie Turner should all play significant roles and could easily be one of the better edge defender trios in the league if they all stay healthy and play up to their potential.

The Vikings also still have Pat Jones, who played 634 snaps last season, but he struggled mightily with a 37.5 overall PFF grade and a 8.2% pressure rate, so he’ll rightfully be playing a smaller role this season. Jones was a 3rd round pick in 2021 and played better on a smaller snap count in 2022, with a 62.5 PFF grade on 308 snaps, so he could be a useful depth player and he might still have some further untapped upside. Jones will compete for a deep reserve role with veteran free agent addition Jihad Ward, who has played an average of 488 snaps per season over the past 5 seasons, but who has also only finished above 60 on PFF once in those 5 seasons. Now in his age 30 season, Ward was only given 1 million guaranteed this off-season and shouldn’t be guaranteed a roster spot. This remade group is much deeper than a year ago, even with former top edge defender Danielle Hunter going elsewhere this off-season.

Grade: A-

Interior Defenders

The Vikings didn’t make any big additions at the interior defender position this off-season, even though it was a position of weakness a year ago. Harrison Phillips (838 snaps) and Jonathan Bullard (643 snaps) led the way as the starters and both struggled, with PFF grades of 59.7 and 46.3 respectively. Phillips has never been much of a pass rusher, with a career 5.9% pressure rate in six seasons in the league, but that fell even further to a 4.8% pressure rate in 2023 and his run defense dropped off as well, down from a 79.8 PFF grade in 2021 and a 73.6 PFF grade in 2022 to a 65.6 PFF grade in 2023. 

Phillips is only in his age 28 season, so there’s some bounce back potential here, at least in terms of run defense, but he’s a pretty underwhelming player to have as your top interior defender. Bullard, meanwhile, had never played more than 437 snaps in a season his first seven seasons in the league prior to last season and he had four straight seasons below 60 on PFF going into last season, so it’s not a surprise that he struggled mightily in an expanded role. Now in his age 31 season, I would expect his struggles to continue, even if he moves into a smaller role.

The Vikings did add some new depth options this off-season, but they’re not necessarily upgrades. Jonah Williams comes over from the Rams, where he saw his role grow in four seasons after going undrafted in 2020, not playing a snap as a rookie, playing 97 snaps in year two, 342 snaps in year three, and 597 snaps last season, but he mostly struggled, with PFF grades of 53.6 and 55.6 over the past two seasons respectively in the only two seasons of significant action in his career. Already in his age 29 season, I wouldn’t expect more out of him in 2024.

Jerry Tillery was also added, coming over from the Raiders. He had a 67.7 PFF grade on 504 snaps in 2023, with his best play coming as an interior pass rusher, where he had a 10.2% pressure rate. It’s possible he could continue playing at that level, but he had never had a PFF grade higher than 50 in his first four seasons in the league prior to last season. He is a former first round pick, so it’s possible he’s finally turned a corner as a player, but he could also regress. Tillery and Williams might be better depth options by default than the Vikings’ depth options a year ago and Harrison Phillips has some bounce back potential, but this is still a very underwhelming position group.

Grade: C

Linebackers

The Vikings also made a big addition at the linebacker position, signing Blake Cashman to a 3-year, 22.5 million dollar deal, but that’s a lateral move at best, with the Vikings losing their top linebacker from a year ago, Jordan Hicks, after he had a 74.6 PFF grade on 813 snaps in 13 games in 2023. Cashman was even better than that, with a 83.7 PFF grade, but that only came on 655 snaps in 14 games and he’s a complete one-year wonder, as the 2019 5th round pick had only played 609 snaps in 4 seasons in the league prior to his surprising breakout 2023 season and had never come close to showing the kind of potential he showed in 2023. Injuries were part of the reason for his lack of playing time early in his career, but it’s highly unlikely he’ll be as good two years in a row and durability concerns still remain. He’ll likely be a downgrade from Hicks, though he does have a good chance to at least be a solid starter.

Cashman will start next to Ivan Pace, who also had a strong 2023 season out of nowhere. Despite going completely undrafted in 2023, Pace had a 77.1 PFF grade on 704 snaps as a rookie. The fact that he went undrafted just a year ago is not irrelevant at this point in his career and I wouldn’t be surprised if he was unable to repeat his surprise rookie season, but he also has a good chance to remain at least a solid starter. Pace and Cashman both had strong seasons in 2023, finishing 17th and 5th among off ball linebackers on PFF, but I wouldn’t expect either one to be as good in 2024.

Behind Cashman and Pace, the Vikings have questionable depth. Brian Asamoah was a 3rd round pick in 2022, but hasn’t gotten on the field much in two years in the league, playing 157 defensive snaps total. He might still have some untapped potential, but he could also struggle if forced into a significant role by injuries ahead of him on the depth chart. The Vikings also added veteran Kamu Grugier-Hill, but he’s finished below 60 on PFF in four straight seasons on an average of 452 snaps per season and now heads into his age 30 season, so he’s a pretty mediocre option, even as a reserve. This group has a high upside if Cashman and Pace can manage to come close to last season’s level of play, but that’s far from a guarantee and the downside is pretty significant as well.

Grade: B

Secondary

The strength of the Vikings’ secondary is the safety position, as they used 3 safeties on the field at the same time by far more than any team in the league, to try to mask their lack of depth at cornerback and at linebacker. Camryn Bynum (1,120 snaps), Harrison Smith (1,111 snaps), and Josh Metellus (1,063 snaps) all played almost all of the Vikings’ 1,129 defensive snaps last season, with Metellus being the one who moved around the most, lining up as a slot cornerback or linebacker more often than he lined up in a traditional safety spot. All three played pretty well, with PFF grades of 73.2, 68.9, and 69.2 respectively, but there’s at least some reason to be concerned that they won’t all play at the same level in 2024.

The biggest reason is that Smith, by far the most accomplished of the bunch, now heads into his age 35 season. In his prime, Smith was one of the best safeties in the league, surpassing a 70 grade on PFF in 8 straight seasons from 2014-2021, with four seasons over 80 and a career best 92.3 in 2017, but he’s fallen below 70 in back-to-back years and could continue declining in 2024, given his age. I wouldn’t expect him to totally fall off, but it wouldn’t be a surprise to see him be worse than a year ago. 

Metellus and Bynum, on the other hand, are younger, but with that youth comes inexperience. Bynum was a 4th round pick in 2021 and showed a lot of potential in limited action as a rookie, with a 78.3 PFF grade on 211 snaps, but he struggled in his first full season as a starter in 2022, with a 58.2 PFF grade and, while he was obviously much better than that in his second full season as a starter, he’s still a one-year wonder in terms of being an above average starter like he was a year ago. 

It’s very possible Bynum has permanently turned a corner and could continue playing at an above average level or even better than a year ago, but he could also regress a little bit. Metellus, meanwhile, was in his first season as a starter last season, after the 2020 6th round pick only played 329 snaps in his first three seasons in the league. He flashed a lot of potential with a 85.1 PFF grade on 259 snaps in 2022, but that’s a small sample size. He’ll probably remain at least a solid starter in 2024, but the fact that last season was his only season as a starter is a bit of a concern. 

It’s also unlikely all three safeties play all 17 games like they did a year ago, as that’s very tough to do two years in a row, but the Vikings do have good depth at the position. Theo Jackson was only a 6th round pick in 2022 and has played just 143 defensive snaps in his career, but was decent with a 67.6 PFF grade on 125 snaps in 2023. Meanwhile, Lewis Cine is a 2022 1st round pick who has been a major bust to this point in his career, playing just 10 total defensive snaps in two seasons in the league as a result of injury and poor performance, but he’s still young and talented and could at least be a useful reserve in 2024.

At cornerback, the Vikings’ two starters Byron Murphy and Akayleb Evans both struggled with PFF grades of 58.0 and 55.0 respectively in 2023. Murphy was signed to a 2-year, 17.5 million dollar deal in free agency last off-season and is likely locked into a starting role by virtue of his salary, but the Vikings will have a competition at the other spot and there’s a good chance Evans doesn’t keep his job. Mekhi Blackmon was a third round pick in the 2023 NFL Draft and played well in limited action while gradually seeing his playing time increase, finishing with a 71.8 PFF grade on 434 snaps, with 329 of those snaps coming in week 8 or later. He’s still a projection to a starting role, but has the talent to develop into an above average starter long-term and could easily be at least an adequate starter if needed in 2024.

The Vikings also signed Shaq Griffin in free agency, adding the journeyman on a 1-year, 4.55 million dollar deal. Griffin’s career got off to a good start, as the 2017 3rd round pick of the Seahawks made 67 starts in his first five seasons in the league, receiving PFF grades of 77.0, 64.1, and 72.0 in 2019, 2020, and 2021 respectively and earning a 3-year, 40 million dollar deal from the Jaguars as a free agent after the 2020 season. However, injuries limited him to 336 snaps in 5 games in 2022 and he was subsequently made a cap casualty prior to the final year of his contract in Jacksonville in 2023, rather than being paid 13.5 million. 

Griffin caught on with the Texans in free agency on a 1-year deal last off-season and was decent with a 66.3 PFF grade on 382 snaps in 10 games in Houston, but he lost his role in a deep cornerback group and was ultimately waived mid-season, before landing in Carolina and seeing just 77 snaps the rest of the season. Griffin is still only in his age 29 season, so he has some bounce back potential, despite the last two seasons not going according to plan. He and Blackmon would both likely be upgrades on Evans, who may also have some untapped potential in his own right, as a 2022 4th round pick who has struggled thus far in his career.

Murphy could also be better than a year ago, although it’s unlikely he’ll live up to the contract the Vikings gave him last off-season. Murphy was a 2nd round pick in 2019 and is only in his age 26 season, but he’s never received a grade higher than 66.7 grade from PFF for a season and that came in an injury shortened 2022 campaign in which he played just 595 snaps in 9 games. In three of his five seasons in the league, he’s finished below 60 on PFF. 

Even if Murphy bounces back in 2024, his ceiling is probably only an adequate starter and he could easily struggle again. The Vikings also have 2022 2nd round pick Andrew Booth, but he’s played just 256 nondescript snaps in two seasons in the league and is unlikely to carve out a role, even in an underwhelming position group overall. The Vikings will once again be relying on their safety depth to mask their issues at the cornerback position, even if they should be better at cornerback by default compared to last season.

Grade: B

Conclusion

The Vikings were better than their 7-10 record in 2023, finishing with positive yards per play and first down rate differentials, despite the fact that starting quarterback Kirk Cousins and top wide receiver Justin Jefferson both missed significant time with injury. Cousins isn’t returning in 2024, but Jefferson should be healthier and the Vikings quarterbacks should be better than they were in Cousins’ absence last season. A lot of whether or not this team can contend for a playoff spot is dependent on how their quarterbacks perform, which is a question mark, but they have a solid supporting cast on both sides of the ball.

Update: The Vikings will start Sam Darnold all season with JJ McCarthy out for the year due to injury, which hurts their upside significantly, especially since they have one of the toughest schedules in the league.

Prediction: 5-12, 4th in NFC North

Quarterback

The Vikings finished last season 13-4, but needed to go 11-0 in one score games to do so and finished with a -3 point differential, the first time in NFL history that a team with as high of a winning percentage as the Vikings had a negative point differential on the season, with their 13 wins coming by a combined 86 points (6.62 points per game) and their 4 losses coming by a combined 89 points (22.25 points per game). The Vikings were even worse in terms of DVOA, which ranked them 27th at -13.8%, giving them the lowest DVOA of all time for a team with at least 12 wins. 

Point differential and DVOA tend to be significantly more predictive than winning percentage and, unsurprisingly, the Vikings were one and done in the post-season, losing their first round game at home to a Giants team that was only 21st in DVOA in their own right and that was blown out the following week in Philadelphia. Making matters worse for the Vikings, they had among the least financial flexibility of any team in the league this off-season and, as a result, had to let several key contributors walk without really replacing them.

Even if the Vikings brought back the same team as last year, it’s highly unlikely they would continue winning close games at the same rate as a year ago and, as a result, they would have won significantly fewer games, but the Vikings are unlikely to be even as good as they were a year ago, so their drop off in win total will likely be even higher than if they kept their team the same. Given that, it wouldn’t be a surprise at all to see the Vikings drop out of the post-season entirely in 2023.

One thing the Vikings did this off-season to free up cap space was restructuring Kirk Cousins contract and it’s interesting the Vikings chose to do that instead of extending Cousins, which probably would have lowered his cap hit even more. However, extending him would almost definitely mean guaranteeing him a significant salary for 2024 and, with Cousins going into his age 35 season in 2023, the Vikings don’t seem to want to commit that kind of guaranteed money to him beyond this season. Cousins not being extended suggests the Vikings are at least thinking about moving forward with a younger quarterback in 2024 and beyond.

Cousins wasn’t really the problem for the Vikings in 2022, but he had his lowest completion percentage (65.9%) since 2017, his lowest YPA (7.07) since 2013, and his lowest PFF rating (77.4) since 2017 and quarterbacks tend to lose it pretty quickly in their mid-to-late 30s. Cousins isn’t totally over the hill yet and could have another solid season for the Vikings in 2023, but his best days are almost definitely behind him and it wouldn’t surprise me at all if he continued declining. With Cousins not locked up long-term, many expected the Vikings to look for a quarterback of the future in the draft, but they didn’t address the position until the 5th round when they took BYU’s Jaren Hall who, based on the track record of 5th round quarterbacks historically, is highly unlikely to be their long-term quarterback of the future. 

The Vikings have a decent backup in Nick Mullens (88.0 QB rating in 17 starts in six seasons in the league) and he figures to keep the #2 job for at least another year ahead of the raw rookie Hall, but Mullen is not someone you’d be comfortable starting for an extended period of time. Cousins is as durable as they come, not missing a game due to injury in 8 years in the league, so the backup quarterback position isn’t that important for this team, but it’s concerning that the Vikings don’t have another good option in case Cousins declines significantly, which is a possibility given his age. Cousins could have another above average season, but this is a quarterback room with legitimate concerns.

Grade: B

Receiving Corps

One expensive veteran the Vikings moved on from this off-season is wide receiver Adam Thielen, who was released ahead of a 13.5 million dollar non-guaranteed salary for his age 33 season in 2023. Thielen is on the decline and won’t be missed that much, after posting just a 65.0 PFF grade across 1,042 snaps last season, and, unlike some of their other off-season losses, the Vikings found a replacement for Thielen, taking Jordan Addison 23rd overall, but taking him cost them their first round pick, which could have been used on other needs, and, while Addison obviously has a much higher upside than Thielen going forward, he’s no guarantee to be an upgrade on Thielen in year one.

Fortunately, the Vikings still have #1 wide receiver Jordan Jefferson, who is arguably the best wide receiver in the entire league. Jefferson burst onto the scene with a ridiculous 88/1400/7 slash line as a rookie in 2020 and, as good as that year was, he’s only gotten better since then, finishing with a 108/1616/10 slash line in 2021 and a 128/1809/8 slash line in 2022, while averaging 2.62 yards per route run for his career. He’s earned a PFF grade of at least 90 in all three seasons in the league, one of two wide receivers in the league along with Davante Adams to finish with a grade higher than 90 in each of the past three seasons. Despite all his accomplishments, Jefferson is still only going into his age 24 season, so he should continue his dominant play for at least several more seasons, barring a catastrophic injury.

KJ Osborn also returns as the #3 receiver, a role he’s filled in each of the past two seasons. Osborn has been a middling receiver, with PFF grades of 64.9 and 65.1 and a yards per route run average of just 1.19, but he’s not a bad #3 receiver either (slash lines of 50/655/7 and 60/650/5 over the past two seasons) and, going into his age 26 season, it’s possible the 2020 5th round pick has further untapped upside. Even if he doesn’t improve any further, he should remain a reliable, if unspectacular third receiver.

Depth is a concern at wide receiver behind their top-3. That was the case last season as well, but Jefferson, Thielen, and Osborn all played all 17 games last season, so their lack of depth wasn’t exposed. That’s highly unlikely to be the case again in 2023 though, meaning top reserves Jalen Nailor and/or Jalen Reagor will have to see more action in 2023 than they did in 2022, when they played 59 snaps and 82 snaps respectively. Nailor was a 6th round pick in 2022 and didn’t show much in limited rookie year action, while Reagor is a bust of a former first round pick, taken 21st overall in 2020 by the Eagles, who moved on from him after just two years. It’s possible Reagor could still have untapped potential, but he’s averaged just 0.99 yards per route run in his career, so, even if he takes a step forward in 2023, he still has a long way to go to be a reliable receiver.

The Vikings also have tight end TJ Hockenson, who was added in a mid-season trade with the Lions last season for a package centered around a 2023 2nd round pick. Hockenson became a big part of this offense immediately, but he wasn’t that efficient, posting a 60/519/3 slash line in 10 games, which seems impressive, until you consider that he received 86 targets in those 10 games and averaged just 6.03 yards per target. Hockenson also saw his yards per route run average drop to 1.43 with the Vikings, after averaging 1.87 yards per route run with the Lions earlier in the season.

Hockenson was the 8th overall pick in the 2019 NFL Draft by the Lions and he has been a solid tight end throughout his career, averaging 1.55 yards per route run over the past three seasons combined, but he has yet to show himself to be an elite tight end worthy of being a top-10 pick and, now going into his age 26 season, it’s possible he is who he is as a player at this point, above average, but unspectacular. I would expect more of the same from him in 2023. Hockenson will be backed up by free agent acquisition Josh Oliver, who will primarily be used as a blocker. 

Oliver somewhat shockingly got a 3-year, 21 million dollar deal this off-season, a big investment for a Vikings team with cap problems and other positions of need. He’s averaged just 0.70 yards per route run for his career and has just 26 career catches in 4 seasons in the league, but the Vikings clearly value his blocking and also probably think he has untapped upside as a receiver. That might not prove to be the case, but he should at least be a solid blocking tight end for them, albeit at a price well beyond what blocking tight ends normally cost. This is an above average receiving corps overall, led by arguably the top wide receiver in the league in Justin Jefferson, but the Vikings don’t have a proven #2 pass catcher and their lack of depth beyond their starters is concerning.

Grade: A-

Running Backs

Another highly paid player the Vikings are expected to move on from this off-season is running back Dalvin Cook. Cook remains on the roster as of this writing, but reports suggest it’s unlikely that Cook stays on the team at his current non-guaranteed salary of 11 million and, if the Vikings can’t find a trade partner for Cook, they will almost definitely end up releasing him to save some money. Committing that kind of money to the running back position is typically not a good idea, especially one with Cook’s injury history (25 games missed in 6 seasons in the league), but Cook has been one of the best running backs in the league over the past few years, rushing for 5,024 yards and 43 touchdowns on 1,075 carries (4.67 YPC) across the past four seasons combined, so, even if it makes sense for the cap strapped Vikings to move on from him, his absence will still be felt.

If Cook ends up not being on the Vikings in 2023, the lead back job will almost definitely fall to Alexander Mattison, who has shown potential as Cook’s backup over the past four seasons, rushing for 1,670 yards and 11 touchdowns on 404 carries (4.13 YPC). If Cook was going to be kept on the roster this season, the Vikings likely would have let Mattison walk, but instead they kept him on a 2-year, 7 million dollar deal, suggesting they view him as a much cheaper alternative to Cook. Mattison isn’t as explosive as Cook and doesn’t offer the same abilities as a receiver (1.01 yards per route run for Mattison in his career, as opposed to 1.20 for Cook), but he’s not a bad alternative if the Vikings don’t want to commit significant resources to the running back position.

Depth behind Mattison is a problem though. The Vikings used a 7th round pick on UAB’s DeWayne McBride in this year’s draft, but he’s not a guarantee to even make the final roster. Ty Chandler was a 5th round pick last year, but remains a complete mystery, after playing just 13 snaps as a rookie. Kene Nwangwu was a 4th round pick in 2021, but has mostly been a return man and special teamer in his career, seeing just 28 touches on offense in two seasons in the league. Once the Vikings move on from Cook, they may opt to bring in a veteran backup, with all of their other backup options being highly unproven. Any veteran they bring in at this point is unlikely to have a huge impact though, so the Vikings will need a big year from Mattison if Cook is let go. Mattison should be a solid starter, but lacks Cook’s upside.

Grade: B- (assumes Cook is not on the final roster)

Offensive Line

Not much has changed for the Vikings on the offensive line this off-season, as they retain all five starters from a year ago. The biggest concern is right tackle Brian O’Neill, who was PFF’s 8th ranked offensive tackle with a 82.7 grade in 16 starts last season, but who tore his achilles late in the year and could miss time and/or be less effective in 2023 as a result, which would hurt this offensive line significantly, given how well O’Neill played a year ago. 

O’Neill isn’t a one-year wonder either, earning grades of 70.7, 78.0, and 73.4 in 2019, 2020, and 2021 as well and, still in his prime in his age 28 season, we would be able to expect more of the same from him in 2023 if it wasn’t for the injury, but his health issues complicate his projection and could prove to be a big problem for a Vikings team that lacks a proven backup at the tackle position. Oli Udoh is expected to be the swing tackle, but the 2019 6th round pick struggled mightily in the only extended action of his career in 2021 (54.4 PFF grade) and has made just one start outside of that season.

Right guard is also a position of concern, as incumbent starter Ed Ingram struggled with a 57.1 PFF grade in 17 starts last season, but the 2022 2nd round pick was only a rookie and has the upside to take a step forward in his second season in the league. He’ll likely be backed up by Chris Reed, a journeyman who has made 30 starts in 8 seasons in the league. Reed hasn’t been a bad fill-in when called upon, but there’s a reason he’s mostly been a backup and he now heads into his age 31 season, so he could struggle if forced into significant action.

The rest of this offensive line is in good shape, led by their best offensive lineman, left tackle Christian Darrisaw, who finished the 2022 season as PFF’s 2nd ranked offensive tackle with a 90.3 PFF grade. Darrisaw is a one-year wonder in terms of playing at that level and might not be as good again in 2023, but the 2021 first round pick came into the league with a lot of upside, he’s only going into his age 24 season, and he also had a 71.7 PFF grade as a rookie, so it wouldn’t be a surprise at all if he continued being one of the better left tackles in the league for years to come, even if he’s not quite as good in 2023 as he was a year ago.

Center Garrett Bradbury is also a former first round pick, although he hasn’t had nearly the success that Darrisaw has had. Selected 18th overall in 2019, Bradbury was middling at best early in his career, with PFF grades of 58.1, 61.4, and 60.2 across his first three seasons in the league (45 starts), before taking a step forward in 2022 and finishing with a 70.2 PFF grade, albeit in only 12 starts, with five games missed due to injury. Bradbury is already in his age 28 season, so he probably doesn’t have any further untapped upside and it wouldn’t be a surprise if he regressed a little bit to his pre-2022 form this season, but he has a good chance to remain at least a solid starter.

Left guard Ezra Cleveland, meanwhile, was a 2nd round pick in 2020 and has gotten better in every season in the league, with PFF grades of 66.2, 68.6, and 73.5, while making 43 total starts, including all 34 over the past two seasons. Last season, his PFF grade was good for 10th best among eligible guards. Still only going into his age 25 season, he could easily keep getting better and, even if he doesn’t, he should remain at least an above average starter in 2023 and beyond. Overall, this offensive line has a lot of talent, despite concerns at right guard, where Ed Ingram struggled in 2022, and right tackle, where talented starter Brian O’Neill is coming off of a major injury and might not be as good as his usual self.

Grade: A-

Edge Defenders

Another highly paid veteran that the Vikings moved on from this off-season was edge defender Za’Darius Smith, a big loss, considering Smith finished last season as PFF’s 18th ranked edge defender with a 82.2 PFF grade across 770 snaps. The Vikings replaced him by signing Marcus Davenport in free agency and he has the upside to be a comparable replacement, but he comes with a lot of downside as well. A first round pick in 2018, Davenport has an impressive 13.6% pressure rate over the past four seasons, while also playing the run well and earning overall grades from PFF of 84.1, 73.3, 88.8, and 76.8 respectively.

However, Davenport has never come close to playing as many snaps as Smith did last season, averaging 450 snaps per season in his career and maxing out at 533 snaps in 2019. That’s partially due to Davenport rotating frequently with other edge defenders, but it’s also due to him missing at least two games with injury in every season in the league, with 19 games missed total in 5 seasons in the league. Davenport could give them a similar level of play as Smith when he’s on the field, but he might not be as effective if he plays the same amount of snaps as Smith did and he will probably miss at least some time with injuries at some point.

The Vikings do bring back Danielle Hunter, who was actually even better than Smith last season, finishing 9th among edge defenders with a 86.3 PFF grade across 905 snaps, playing the run at a high level, while totaling 10.5 sacks, 12 hits, and a 12.3% pressure rate as a pass rusher. Hunter had most of his 2020 and 2021 season wiped out by injuries, but he still played at a high level when healthy and he has finished with a PFF grade of 74 or higher in every season in the league except his rookie season in 2016. Still relatively in his prime in his age 29 season, I wouldn’t expect Hunter to drop off significantly this year, assuming he can avoid further injuries.

With Davenport unlikely to play as many snaps as Smith did a year ago, the Vikings will likely need more out of reserves DJ Wonnum and Patrick Jones. Wonnum and Jones played 562 snaps and 308 snaps respectively last season, but were underwhelming at best, with PFF grades of 58.0 and 62.5 respectively and a combined pressure rate of just 9.2%. Both are relatively young, so they could be better in 2023, but that’s far from a guarantee. Wonnum, a 4th round pick in 2020, has never received even a grade of 60 from PFF for a season, while Jones, a 3rd round pick in 2021, only played in 99 underwhelming rookie year snaps before last year’s middling season as a reserve. Both are likely to remain middling at best, especially if they have to play a larger role. This group has a lot of upside led by Hunter and Davenport, but also downside given Davenport’s durability issues and their underwhelming depth.

Grade: B+

Interior Defenders

Interior defender Dalvin Tomlinson was also not retained this off-season, another big loss, as Tomlinson was PFF’s 16th ranked interior defender with a 77.1 grade across 550 snaps last season. The closest thing the Vikings did to replacing Tomlinson was signing ex-Packer Dean Lowry to a 2-year, 8.5 million dollar deal, but he figures to be a significant downgrade. Lowry has played 618 snaps per season over the past five seasons, but has been middling at best in those seasons, including a 59.3 PFF grade across 482 snaps in 2022. I would expect more of the same from him in 2023.

Harrison Phillips was the other starter inside next to Tomlinson last season and he still remains on the team, which is a good thing, as Phillips received a 72.1 grade from PFF last season across 693 snaps. Durability is a question mark for Phillips, as he missed 20 games and never played more than 473 snaps in a season in four seasons in the league prior to last season, but he’s always shown a lot of promise when on the field, including a 77.4 grade in 2021. The Vikings might not be able to count on Phillips playing all 17 games again in 2023 like he did in 2022, but he should remain an above average starting option when on the field. 

Reserves Jonathan Bullard (318 snaps), Khyiris Tonga (276 snaps), and James Lynch (276 snaps) all return for 2023 and should play similar roles. Tonga probably has the most upside of the group, posting a 77.9 PFF grade last season in his limited action, but the 2021 7th round pick also had just a 52.1 grade on 217 snaps as a rookie with the Bears and did not make the Bears final roster last off-season, landing on the Falcons’ practice squad before the Vikings added him to the active roster. It’s possible he’s turned a corner and that we should ignore his rookie year struggles, but he’s also seen such little action overall that it’s hard to project him to a larger role if he was ever forced into one by injuries ahead of him on the depth chart.

Bullard and Lynch, meanwhile, are likely to remain underwhelming options, even as reserves. Bullard was a 3rd round pick back in 2016 and has been in the league for 7 seasons, but he’s never played more than 437 snaps in a season in his career and he’s finished with PFF grades below 60 in each of the past four seasons, on an average of just 242 snaps per season. Now going into his age 30 season, it wouldn’t be a surprise to see Bullard decline even further and, even if he doesn’t, he figures to be a mediocre option even in limited action. Lynch, meanwhile, was a 4th round pick in 2020 and has developed into a decent run stopper, but he offers nothing as a pass rusher (2.9% pressure rate for his career) and isn’t good enough against the run to make up for it. This isn’t a bad position group, but losing Tomlinson and replacing him with the inferior Dean Lowry will definitely hurt them.

Grade: B-

Linebackers

The Vikings also parted ways with every down linebacker Eric Kendricks this off-season. By doing so, they save 9.5 million ahead of what would have been his age 31 season, but Kendricks has been a reliable every down linebacker for this team for years and they’ll be replacing him with 2022 3rd round pick Brian Asamoah. He flashed a lot of potential on 121 rookie year snaps, but is overall unproven and could easily prove to be a downgrade. 

Asamoah isn’t a bad replacement, but the Vikings probably got worse in the linebacking corps by releasing Kendricks. At the very least, moving Asamoah into the starting lineup depletes their depth, leaving them with 2020 4th round pick Troy Dye (42 career snaps) and free agent acquisition Troy Reeder, a career special teamer who played just 62 defensive snaps in 2022, as their top reserve options. The Vikings at least do bring back their other every down linebacker Jordan Hicks, who actually finished with a slightly higher PFF grade (65.4 vs. 61.1) than Kendricks last season. 

Hicks has had an interesting career, being selected by the Eagles in the third round in 2015 and earning grades of 80.9, 88.4, and 75.1 from PFF in 2015, 2016, and 2018 respectively, but also missing 21 games due to injury over his first four seasons. He then went to Arizona for three seasons before joining the Vikings in 2022 and, while he hasn’t reached the level he played at for stretches with the Eagles, with his highest PFF grade over the past four seasons being 65.4, he’s also been a reliable, steady every down linebacker and he has managed to shake the injury bug, not missing a single game in four years, despite playing an average of 62.8 snaps per game. 

Now in his age 31 season, Hicks could start to decline in 2023 and his best days are almost definitely behind him at this point, but it also wouldn’t surprise me if he remained a reliable every down linebacker. With Kendricks gone, Hicks aging, and a lack of depth, the Vikings probably will be worse in the linebacking corps than they were a year ago, but Asamoah has potential and Hicks could hold up for another year.

Grade: B-

Secondary

The Vikings also lost top cornerback Patrick Peterson in free agency this off-season, which is a big loss, considering he made all 17 starts last season and finished with a 80.7 PFF grade. Unlike many of their off-season moves, not retaining Peterson wasn’t a cost saving measure, as Peterson’s replacement Byron Murphy was signed by the Vikings to a 2-year, 17.5 million dollar deal, while Peterson signed with the Steelers for just 14 million over two years. Murphy is much younger than Peterson, going into his age 25 season, while Peterson goes into his age 33 season, but the Vikings will almost definitely be worse in the short-term from adding Murphy over Peterson.

Murphy was a 2nd round pick in 2019 and may still have further untapped upside given his relative youth, but he’s has never had a PFF grade higher than 66.7 in his career. Chandon Sullivan (944 snaps) and Cameron Dantzler (505 snaps), their #2 and #3 cornerbacks last season in terms of snaps played, are also no longer with the team and, while they are much more middling players who won’t be missed as much as Peterson (PFF grades of 55.8 and 63.1 respectively in 2022), the Vikings didn’t really replace them and will instead be counting on young, inexperienced cornerbacks stepping up in their place. 

Andrew Booth probably has the most upside of the Vikings’ young cornerbacks, as he went in the 2nd round in 2022 and likely would have been a first round pick if not for injury concerns, but he struggled across just 105 rookie year snaps in an injury plagued season and, while he has the upside to develop into an above average starter if he can stay healthy, he could easily suffer more injuries and, even if he doesn’t, he might not break out as an above average starter until later in his career.

Akalyeb Evans also struggled in limited rookie year action (162 snaps), but the 2022 4th round pick seems to have the inside track at the #3 cornerback job due to the Vikings’ lack of a better option. USC’s Mekhi Blackmon and LSU’s Jay Ward were added in the third and fourth round respectively of this year’s draft, but would likely struggle if forced into significant rookie year action. With no proven options behind underwhelming de facto #1 cornerback Byron Murphy, this cornerback group has a lot of concerns.

Things are better at the safety position, but there is still reason for concern. Harrison Smith is still their best safety and has been one of the best safeties in the league for most of his impressive 11-year career to date, but he’s now heading into his age 34 season and showed significant decline last season, with his 69.1 PFF grade being his worst since his second season in the league back in 2013. He was still a slightly above average starter last season and played 912 snaps as an every down safety, so if he doesn’t decline further, he should remain a useful player for this defense, but further decline is possible and, at this point, I wouldn’t expect him to bounce back to even his 2020 (74.3) or 2021 (77.9) form, given his age.

Camryn Bynum struggled as the other starting safety last season, having a PFF grade of 58.2, but the 2021 4th round pick could be better in his third season in the league in 2023 and, even if he isn’t, the Vikings have a couple promising options who could beat him out for the starting job and who could easily prove to be upgrades. Lewis Cine is a 2022 1st round pick who might be the favorite for the job based purely on where he was drafted, even though he played just two rookie year snaps in a season that started with him failing to win a starting job on defense and ended in week 4 with an injury suffered on special teams. He’s a relative unknown, but he has the upside to develop into at least a solid starter long-term and it wouldn’t surprise me if he did that in 2023. 

Josh Mettulus, meanwhile, is a 2020 6th round pick who flashed in limited action as a reserve last season (259 snaps). He’ll probably remain a reserve in 2023, especially with Cine returning, but it wouldn’t surprise me if he ended up in the starting lineup at some point due to injury and fared well as an injury replacement. With much more depth at safety than cornerback, expect the Vikings to use 3 safeties somewhat frequently in sub packages to offset their lack of cornerback depth, a strategy aided by converted collegiate cornerback Camryn Bynum’s history on the slot. This is an underwhelming secondary overall though, with top cornerback Patrick Peterson gone and top safety Harrison Smith getting up there in age.

Grade: C+

Conclusion

The Vikings were unlikely to match last year’s 13-4 record even if they brought back the same team, as their point differential and DVOA, which are much more predictive than win/loss records year-to-year, suggested they were actually a below average team last season. Making matters worse, this is almost definitely a worse roster than a year ago, in large part because they lost numerous key veterans this off-season and, for the most part, they did not adequately replace them.

The Vikings might have on upgraded aging wide receiver Adam Thielen with promising rookie Jordan Addison, but their defense lost edge defender Za’Darius Smith, interior defender Dalvin Tomlinson, cornerback Patrick Peterson, and middle linebacker Eric Kendricks and will replace them on the roster with Marcus Davenport, Dean Lowry, Byron Murphy, and Troy Reeder, who are almost definitely downgrades, in some cases significantly so. The Vikings are also expected to part ways with feature back Dalvin Cook and whoever they sign to replace him will almost definitely be a significant downgrade as well. On top of that, several other key players on this roster, quarterback Kirk Cousins, safety Harrison Smith, and linebacker Jordan Hicks are on the wrong side of 30 and could drop off significantly. 

The Vikings also can’t count on having as good of health as they had last season, when they had the 5th fewest adjusted games lost in the league. Injury problems are already a concern for the Vikings heading into the 2023 season, with talented right tackle Brian O’Neill rehabbing from a late season torn Achilles that has him questionable for the start of the year and that could keep him from playing at his highest level for most of the season. All in all, this looks likely to be a below .500 team in 2023, though the NFC in general and particularly the NFC North are weak enough that they could still compete for a post-season spot. I will have a final prediction at the end of the off-season when all previews are completed.

Prediction: 6-11, 4th in NFC North