Houston Texans at Pittsburgh Steelers: 2020 Week 3 NFL Pick

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Houston Texans (0-2) at Pittsburgh Steelers (2-0)

The Texans are off to an 0-2 start, which is not a surprise, as their season began in pretty much the most difficult way imaginable, with games against the Chiefs and Ravens. The bigger concern is that the Texans weren’t particularly competitive in either game, losing by a combined 31 points and having a first down rate differential of -5.79% across the two games, 5th worst in the NFL through 2 weeks. Also concerning is that their schedule doesn’t immediately get easier, with a trip to Pittsburgh on deck.

The Steelers haven’t really been tested yet in their 2-0 start, but I had them as a top-10 team coming into the season and they’re getting healthier, with stud right guard David DeCastro set to return, which will give them a big boost upfront. I have them 6th in my roster rankings right now, about 4.5 points above the Texans. Adding two points for reduced homefield advantage, I have this line calculated at Pittsburgh -6.5, so we’re getting some line value with them as only 4-point favorites.

That being said, I wouldn’t recommend betting the Steelers, because the Texans are in a good spot. Not only are the Texans in desperate need of a win at 0-2, while the Steelers are 2-0, the Steelers also have a much tougher game on deck with the also 2-0 Titans in Tennessee, while the Texans will be hosting the also 0-2 Vikings in Houston. Underdogs are 78-38 ATS since 2016 before being favorites when their opponent will next be underdogs and all three of those conditions should be true here. I’m taking the Steelers for pick ‘em purposes, but I’m not confident.

Pittsburgh Steelers 28 Houston Texans 23

Pick against the spread: Pittsburgh -4

Confidence: Low

Detroit Lions at Arizona Cardinals: 2020 Week 3 NFL Pick

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Detroit Lions (0-2) at Arizona Cardinals (2-0)

One of the big early surprises of this young season has been the play of Arizona’s defense, which has the 5th lowest first down rate allowed in the league at 33.88%, after finishing 30th in first down rate allowed with similar personnel in 2019. The Cardinals have an impressive offense with Kenyan Drake and DeAndre Hopkins giving them a pair of offensive playmakers around quarterback Kyler Murray, who has taken a step forward himself this season, so if their defense can continue playing like this, this could be a dangerous team.

I don’t expect this level of defensive player to continue though. On paper, they are much more in line with how they played last season and they haven’t faced a tough schedule thus far, facing a banged up 49ers offense and a Washington team that has one of the worst offenses in the league. At the very least, I don’t expect the Cardinals to keep up their league leading 26.1% third down conversion rate allowed, over a 20% improvement from their 2019 defense.

The Cardinals schedule gets tougher on their defense this week with the Lions coming to town. Detroit’s offense hasn’t been that impressive thus far this season, but they get top wide receiver Kenny Golladay back from injury this week, which is huge, as he’s gone for a 75/1226/9 slash line in his last 16 games with Matt Stafford, and they could be healthier on the offensive line this week as well. The Cardinals shouldn’t have much problem moving the ball against this Detroit defense, but this could easily be an evenly matched shootout. With reduced homefield advantage for the Cardinals, I have this calculated at Arizona -3, so we’re getting some line value with the Lions at 5. There isn’t enough here for this to be worth betting, but the Lions should be the pick for pick ‘em purposes, as the most likely outcome of this game is the Cardinals winning by a field goal.

Arizona Cardinals 34 Detroit Lions 31

Pick against the spread: Detroit +5

Confidence: Low

Washington Mascots at Cleveland Browns: 2020 Week 3 NFL Pick

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Washington Mascots (1-1) at Cleveland Browns (1-1)

The Browns got blown out in week 1 in Baltimore, losing 38-7 in a game in which they lost the first down rate differential by 17.39%, but the Ravens are on a dominant regular season run dating back to last season, and the Browns bounced back in week 2. They only beat the Bengals by 5, but the Browns actually won the first down rate by 10.78%, with the Bengals only able to keep it close because they went 5 for 5 on 4th down and got a late meaningless touchdown. 

The Browns have some injuries, missing defensive end Olivier Vernon and probably top cornerback Denzel Ward, but they’re hardly the only banged up team right now and they still rank 15th in my roster rankings. Their opponents this week, in addition not having a team name, are missing one of their few top level players, Brandon Scherff, without whom they have one of the worst offensive lines in the league. They pulled off the upset week 1 against a banged up Eagles team that looked bad again in week 2 even when they were healthier, but they’re still one of the least talented teams in the league, about 8 points behind the Browns in my roster rankings. That suggests a line favoring the Browns by about 10, so we’re getting good line value with this number at 7. This isn’t a big play, but the Browns are worth a bet this week.

Update: Denzel Ward is a surprise active for the Browns, and Adrian Clayborn, a valuable situational rusher who was questionable, will play as well. Strangely, this line has stayed put at a touchdown. I like the Browns enough for this to be a bigger play. They should win this one fairly easily.

Cleveland Browns 24 Washington Mascots 12

Pick against the spread: Cleveland -7

Confidence: High

Los Angeles Rams at Buffalo Bills: 2020 Week 3 NFL Pick

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Los Angeles Rams (2-0) at Buffalo Bills (2-0)

The Bills made the playoffs with 10 wins last season, but they faced a very easy schedule and their performance against tougher competition is concerning. They went just 1-5 against teams that finished with a winning record, with their only win coming against the Marcus Mariota-led Titans in a game in which the Titans missed 4 field goals and lost by 7. Even more concerning is the statistical split of quarterback Josh Allen between games against winning teams and non-winning teams.  

Even with a solid game against the Titans included, he completed just 51.7% of his passes for an average of 5.65 YPA, 7 touchdowns, and 4 interceptions against winning teams, as opposed to 62.6% completion, 7.26 YPA, 13 touchdowns, and 5 interceptions against .500 or worse teams. With the Bills’ schedule getting much tougher this season, the key to them making it back to the post-season will be Josh Allen and the rest of this team playing better than they have against tough competition. 

Whether or not they can do that is still up in the air, as the Bills started their season with a pair of easy games against divisional opponents, taking care of business in both games. This week, their schedule gets tougher, as they play host to the Rams. The Rams came into the season with several glaring weaknesses, but, one of them, their offensive line, has been pleasantly surprising this season thanks to the emergence of young players and bounce back years from veterans. They haven’t faced the toughest schedule to get to 2-0 and they barely won their week 1 game, but the Rams are exceeding expectations and have mostly avoided injuries so far, and they should easily compete for a playoff spot if that continues.

The Bills are better on offense since adding Stefon Diggs this off-season and Josh Allen is another year experienced, now in his 3rd season in the league, so I give them a better chance of beating a team like the Rams than I would a year ago, but I still have the Rams about a point higher in my roster rankings. This line, favoring the Bills by 2 at home, suggests these two teams are about even, so we’re getting a little bit of line value with the Rams, but the Bills could easily end up winning this game by a field goal, so this isn’t one I’m confident in. In fact, a Bills win by a field goal is probably the single most likely outcome, even if the Rams overall may have a better chance of covering.

Buffalo Bills 24 Los Angeles Rams 23

Pick against the spread: LA Rams +2

Confidence: None

Tennessee Titans at Minnesota Vikings: 2020 Week 3 NFL Pick

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Tennessee Titans (2-0) at Minnesota Vikings (0-2)

It’s weird to see the Vikings be this bad on defense, after years of consistently strong defensive play under Mike Zimmer, but it’s not a fluke, as this is just not a talented unit. The Vikings lost a pair of mainstays on the defensive line in Everson Griffen and Linval Joseph and, while they were replaced with Yannick Ngakoue and Michael Pierce, the latter opted out of the season, while the former is basically by himself on a defensive line that is missing Danielle Hunter, who is normally one of the top edge rushers in the league. The Vikings also just lost Anthony Barr from their linebacking corps due to injury, while their cornerbacks are very thin in part due to injury, in part due to lack of talent. Adding to their injury list, nominal top cornerback Mike Hughes is expected to be out this week. 

On offense, it’s tough to know what to make of this team because their week 1 and week 2 performances could not have been more different. In week 1, the offense did the most they could with the limited amount of time their defense allowed them to be on the field, picking up 25 first downs and 4 touchdowns on 49 offensive snaps, to give them a ridiculous 59.18% first down rate, but in week 2, they couldn’t get anything going, finishing with a 27.66% first down rate. Guard Pat Elflein didn’t play in week 2 after playing week 1 and he’ll be out again this week, but it’s unlikely his absence alone caused the big drop off from week 1 to week 2.

Realistically, the Vikings should ultimately be somewhere right in the middle of their past two performances this season. They finished 11th in first down rate last season and, while they lost wide receiver Stefon Diggs this off-season, they do have a healthy Adam Theilen. It’s going to be tough for their offense to keep up with what their defense puts up though, at least until Hunter is back, and especially against tougher competition.

The Titans are 2-0 and, though they haven’t been tested yet, I liked their chances of being a top-10 team coming into the season and, while they’re still missing top cornerback Adoree Jackson and top wide receiver AJ Brown, they’re actually healthier now than they’ve been in their first two games. I have them about 6 points better in my roster rankings than the Vikings right now, suggesting the Titans should be favored by about 3.5-4 points in Minnesota. That doesn’t seem like a lot of line value, with this line sitting at -2.5, but about 1 in 6 games are decided by exactly a field goal. It shouldn’t be too difficult for the Titans to beat the Vikings by a field goal or more, with the Vikings banged up and not having a normal homefield advantage, so they’re worth a bet as favorites of less than a field goal.

Tennessee Titans 26 Minnesota Vikings 20

Pick against the spread: Tennessee -2.5

Confidence: Medium

Las Vegas Raiders at New England Patriots: 2020 Week 3 NFL Pick

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Las Vegas Raiders (2-0) at New England Patriots (1-1)

As crazy as it might seem, the Patriots seem to have found an upgrade on Tom Brady. In Brady’s final season in New England, the Patriots struggled to get consistent offense, finishing the season 21st in first down rate. That wasn’t Brady’s fault entirely, given his lack of downfield weapons, but the Patriots switched to Cam Newton this off-season and so far this offense is #1 in the NFL in first down rate through the first two weeks of the season at 48.12%, despite not adding any real downfield weapons. It’s not that Brady is a bad quarterback at this stage of his career, but this Patriots offense is much more oriented towards being a run heavy offense, with a good run blocking offensive line and a lack of downfield weapons, and Cam Newton is a better fit for a run heavy offense that lacks downfield playmakers than Brady because of his ability to make plays with his own feet. 

The Patriots defense isn’t what it was last year, but the Patriots still rank 2nd in the league in this early season in first down rate differential at +7.44%, only behind the Ravens. The Patriots lost in Seattle last week, but that was a tough situation playing a night game on the road on the west coast against a strong Seahawks team and the Patriots still came within inches of winning it and likely would have had a shot at an easy game winning field goal had they not missed a makeable attempt early in the season. The Patriots also won the first down rate battle in that game slightly, despite a tough situation, showing they still belong with some of the top teams in the league even without Brady.

This week, the Patriots return to New England to face a Raiders team that is getting some hype after a 2-0 start. The Raiders went back and forth in a close win over a very mediocre Panthers team week 1, but in week 2 they pulled an upset in their first game in their new stadium over the Saints. That win could prove to be a sign of things to come for this Raiders team, but it’s worth noting the Saints traditionally don’t start the season well, as they are just 4-17-1 ATS in the first two weeks of the season since 2010, as opposed to 85-53-2 ATS in weeks 3-17. Over the previous three seasons, the Saints won more regular season games than any team in the league, but they were just 2-4 in the first two weeks of the season, including a pair of losses to eventual non-playoff qualifiers. 

The Raiders also lost the first down rate battle in that game and have a negative first down rate differential (-1.20%) on the season, despite their 2-0 record, and they enter this game banged up, missing a pair of offensive linemen in Richie Incognito and Trent Brown, starting linebacker Nick Kwiatkowski, starting wide receiver Henry Ruggs, and will likely have their top-two offensive playmakers Darren Waller and Josh Jacobs at less than 100% after barely practice all week due to injury. It’s worth noting that the Patriots are also missing center David Andrews, a key player on their offensive line, but overall they’re in better injury shape than the Raiders and they’re in a better spot too. 

While Bill Belichick is 51-29-2 ATS off a loss since taking over as head coach in 2000, including 10-6 ATS without Tom Brady, the Raiders could be flat off their big home upset win, as teams are 45-69 ATS since 1989 as underdogs of 3 or more after a win by 10 or more as home underdogs of 3 or more. I’ll need this line to drop below 6 for the Patriots to be worth betting without Andrews, but I have a feeling this will drop before gametime and even if it doesn’t, the Patriots are the right side for pick ‘em purposes.

New England Patriots 31 Las Vegas Raiders 23

Pick against the spread: New England -6

Confidence: Low

Kansas City Chiefs at Baltimore Ravens: 2020 Week 3 NFL Pick

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Kansas City Chiefs (2-0) at Baltimore Ravens (2-0)

This is arguably the biggest game of the early season so far. Not only could it be an AFC Championship preview, but it could also decide the #1 seed in the AFC, as the winner would have a one game lead and the tiebreaker. That #1 seed is especially important under the new playoff format because, not only would the #1 seed host that eventual AFC Championship as usual, but also they would avoid playing on wild card weekend, which #2 seeds now have to do. In addition to the present implications of this game, this is also the third installment in what looks like it could be a long-time rivalry between the two best young quarterbacks in the game in Patrick Mahomes and Lamar Jackson, who have won the last two MVP awards respectively.

The Chiefs are defending Super Bowl champions and won the previous two matchups between Mahomes and Jackson in 2018 and 2019, but despite that they are 3.5-point underdogs in Baltimore, where the Ravens won’t even have the benefit of normal homefield advantage. This line might not seem huge, but about 1 in 4 games are decided by a field goal or less and this is the most points Patrick Mahomes has been given as an underdog since his 3rd career start back in week 2 of 2018 (Mahomes is 4-0-2 ATS all-time as an underdog). 

That being said, I actually like the Ravens in this one. These two teams haven’t met since week 3 of last season and the Ravens are a much more complete team now than they were in either of their previous two matchups, primarily due to Lamar Jackson’s continued emergence as a passer and the addition of top cornerback Marcus Peters on defense. The Ravens have won their last 10 meaningful regular season games by an average of 22.2 points per game and, while their home playoff loss to the Titans is a black mark on their recent record, that game largely swung on an highly uncharacteristic -3 turnover margin and 0 for 4 on 4th down by the Ravens. Even including that game, the Ravens have a ridiculous +12.39% first down rate differential in their last 11 meaningful games.

The Chiefs are on a strong run of their own, winning their last 11 games, including three playoff games, with a +7.90%% first down rate differential over that stretch, but that number is still significantly behind the Ravens’ recent run, even if strength of schedule is factored in. The Ravens also have the obvious edge in this early season, with a +11.09%% first down rate differential, compared to +2.19% for the Chiefs. 

My roster rankings also give the Ravens a 3-point edge, suggesting they should be favored by 4.5 or 5 points, even with the diminished homefield advantage. The Chiefs have some question marks on their offensive line and defense, while the Ravens are a more complete team overall. I wouldn’t recommend betting on this if only because it’s silly to ever bet against Mahomes as underdogs of this many points, but the Ravens have the edge on paper and it wouldn’t surprise me if they ended up winning more easily than most people expect.

Baltimore Ravens 34 Kansas City Chiefs 27

Pick against the spread: Baltimore -3.5

Confidence: Low

Dallas Cowboys at Seattle Seahawks: 2020 Week 3 NFL Pick

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Dallas Cowboys (1-1) at Seattle Seahawks (2-0)

It’s funny how narratives change. In 2018, the Cowboys went 10-6 with a 8-2 record in games decided by 7 points or less and they were seen as a team that was good at closing out games. In 2019, they went just 0-5 in games decided by 7 points or less with largely the same team as 2018, causing them to fall to 8-8 and out of the playoffs, and they were seen as a dysfunctional team that couldn’t close. That seemed to carry into week 1 of this season, when they lost a winnable game by a field goal to the Rams, but then in week 2 they completed a ridiculous 20-point comeback to win a game by 1 point that they statistically had just a 0.1% chance of winning with 2:52 left in the game.

The Cowboys wouldn’t have gotten a chance to come back if the Falcons didn’t seemingly forget the onside kick rule at the end of the game, but they also could have easily won their week 1 game in Los Angeles had they not decided to go for it rather than kick a field goal down three and there were some fluky things that led to the Cowboys needing to come back against the Falcons in the first place, like the Cowboys losing a trio of fumbles. 

The Cowboys lost the turnover battle by 3, but still managed to win the game, something that only happens in about 10.3% of cases of a team with a -3 turnover margin, and they won the first down rate battle by a margin of 10.80% that is much more convincing then their margin on the scoreboard. Combine that with their slight first down rate margin win in week 1 against the Rams and the Cowboys have a +7.25% first down rate differential on the season that ranks 3rd in the league. That’s more or less in line with their +4.28% first down rate differential in 2019 (4th in the NFL), when their poor performance in close games caused them to miss the playoffs.

Ordinarily, that would be a good sign for the Cowboys going forward because a team’s record in close games tends to even out in the long run, but the Cowboys are one of several teams in the league that have been destroyed by injuries early in the season. They are without their dominant offensive tackle duo of Tyron Smith and La’El Collins, pass catching tight end Blake Jarwin, starting linebackers Leighton Vander Esch and Sean Lee, starting cornerbacks Chidobe Awuzie and Anthony Brown, and possibly top defensive lineman DeMarcus Lawrence. 

The Cowboys schedule also gets a lot tougher this week when they head to Seattle. Playing in Seattle isn’t what it once was because of the lack of fans, but this is also arguably the best Seahawks team in years and the Seahawks are relatively healthy compared to the rest of the league. I have the Seahawks 4th in my roster rankings and 6 points ahead of the beat up Cowboys. 

This line shifted from -1.5 on the early line last week to -5 this week, but it arguably didn’t shift up enough, as even with a limited homefield advantage you can definitely make an argument for the Seahawks being favored by more than a touchdown in this one. The Cowboys’ propensity to keep games close is enough for me to not wager on the Seahawks as 5-point favorites, but they may just be too outmatched talent wise in this game with all of the key players they are missing. If DeMarcus Lawrence winds up missing this game and the line doesn’t shift significantly, I may reconsider a bet on Seattle.

Seattle Seahawks 31 Dallas Cowboys 24

Pick against the spread: Seattle -5

Confidence: Low

Green Bay Packers at New Orleans Saints: 2020 Week 3 NFL Pick

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Green Bay Packers (2-0) at New Orleans Saints (1-1)

The Saints lost in Las Vegas to the Raiders last week and it seems to be a common narrative this week that the sky is falling in New Orleans. Drew Brees’ production has been questionable through two games and some are wondering if the 41-year-old might be done, with some media conversations discussing whether or not the Saints would be better off starting backup Jameis Winston instead of the future Hall-of-Famer. That reaction is noticeable in this line, which shifted from 5.5 on the early line last week to 3 this week.

The part that is usually left out of that discussion is that the Saints pretty much always do this to start the season. Since 2010, they are just 4-17-1 ATS in the first two weeks of the season, as opposed to 85-53-2 ATS in weeks 3-17. Over the previous three seasons, the Saints won more regular season games than any team in the league, but they were just 2-4 in the first two weeks of the season, including a pair of losses to eventual non-playoff qualifiers. The Saints losing their 2018 home opener to the eventual 5-win Buccaneers didn’t mean the sky was falling that season, so I wouldn’t be so sure that losing to a competent Raiders team in their first game in their new stadium means the sky is falling this season.

Brees’ age can’t be ignored and neither can the fact that he is without his top wide receiver Michael Thomas for at least another week, but I had the Saints as my highest rated team coming into the season and they still rank 3rd in my roster rankings despite a slow start and the absence of Michael Thomas, so the Saints could end up being very undervalued going forward if they can get over their early season struggles like they always do.

I wouldn’t assume that week 3 is a magic week for the Saints (even if they are 7-3 ATS in week 3 since 2010) or that the Saints are going to get hot like they normally do until Thomas can return and the Packers are a quality opponent as well, but the Packers are without top wide receiver Davante Adams and could be without top defensive lineman Kenny Clark for another week as well, so they’re not at full strength either. If both of those guys are out, I still have the Saints as 5-point favorites in this game even without Thomas, so there would be enough line value for the Saints to be worth a bet. I’ll leave this as a low confidence pick for now, but I may update this tomorrow.

Update: Clark’s status is unclear, but I think this line might move up to 3.5 by gametime if he’s ruled out, so I am going to lock this in at -3 while I can. I am comfortable betting on the Saints either way because Clark could be hobbled if he plays.

New Orleans Saints 33 Green Bay Packers 27

Pick against the spread: New Orleans -3

Confidence: Medium

San Francisco 49ers at New York Giants: 2020 Week 3 NFL Pick

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San Francisco 49ers (1-1) at New York Giants (0-2)

Going into the season, I noted that the 49ers didn’t have the usual risk factors for a team that has a big decline after an impressive season, as they didn’t have an unsustainably high turnover margin, they didn’t win an unsustainably high percentage of their close games, they didn’t stay unsustainably healthy, and they didn’t have significant personnel or coaching staff losses this off-season. What couldn’t have been foreseen was the devastation that injuries would have on this team early in the season. I can’t remember a team that entered the season with this much promise losing this many key players to injury before the third week of the season.

In total, the 49ers are without their starting quarterback Jimmy Garroppolo, their top-two running backs Raheem Mostert and Tevin Coleman, their top-two pass catchers George Kittle and Deebo Samuel, their top-two edge rushers Nick Bosa and Dee Ford, starting linebacker Dre Greenlaw, and their top cornerback Richard Sherman. A team that entered the season as an obvious contender has fallen all the way to 24th in my roster rankings. This line has shifted from favoring the 49ers by 6.5 last week on the early line to 3.5 this week, with many of those players going down just last week, but I don’t think this line has shifted nearly enough. In fact, I actually have the Giants better than the 49ers right now, so I have this line calculated at Giants -3.

The Giants are 0-2 and just lost their best offensive player Saquon Barkley, but what’s lost in all that is that they’ve played pretty well so far this season, particularly on defense. They’ve allowed tied for the second fewest first downs in the league with 37, with only Indianapolis, who has been on the field 34 fewer plays, having allowed fewer first downs than the Giants, and they’ve done that despite allowing a 54.84% conversion rate on third down. 17 of their 37 allowed first downs.came on third down and, conversely, their 20 first downs allowed on first and second down are the fewest in the league.

How well a defense performs on third down tends to match how well a defense performs on first and second down in the long run, which is a good sign for the Giants going forward. Overall, they’ve allowed just a 32.81% first down rate on the season, 2nd lowest in the league, giving them a positive first down rate differential at +2.90%, despite the Giants 0-2 record, which is primarily driven by a disparity in third down performance. That’s a good indicator that they should be better going forward.

The Barkley injury obviously hurts, but running back is one of the more replaceable positions and the Giants have to be happy with the process of quarterback Daniel Jones and their young defense. They may not win a lot of games, but they should at least be competitive in most of their games and they’re actually slightly more talented than this beaten up 49ers team right now, so they should be able to get the win here at home. Getting the extra 3.5 points as protection is just a bonus. This is my top pick this week.

New York Giants 24 San Francisco 49ers 20 Upset Pick +155

Pick against the spread: NY Giants +3.5

Confidence: Pick of the Week