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Continue reading →: Pittsburgh Steelers at Tampa Bay Buccaneers: 2018 Week 3 NFL Pick
Pittsburgh Steelers (0-1-1) at Tampa Bay Buccaneers (2-0) This line briefly opened at Pittsburgh -3, but sharp action quickly bet the line down to 1.5. I regret not grabbing Tampa Bay +3 when I saw it, as, not only is it obviously a better number, but the Steelers have really…
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Continue reading →: New York Giants at Houston Texans: 2018 Week 3 NFL Pick
New York Giants (0-2) at Houston Texans (0-2) A trendy pre-season Super Bowl “sleeper”, the Texans have gotten off to a disappointing 0-2 start, but they’ve been better than their record has suggested. Their first loss was in New England and last week they had a +7.27% first down rate…
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Continue reading →: Chicago Bears at Arizona Cardinals: 2018 Week 3 NFL Pick
Chicago Bears (1-1) at Arizona Cardinals (0-2) Through 2 games, the Cardinals have been the worst team in the league. Not only have they lost both games by wide margins (24-6 and 34-0), but they have looked awful while doing it, ranking dead last in first down rate differential at…
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Continue reading →: Los Angeles Chargers at Los Angeles Rams: 2018 Week 3 NFL Pick
Los Angeles Chargers (1-1) at Los Angeles Rams (2-0) This game features the crosstown Chargers and Rams for the first time in their new city in Los Angeles. The Rams are technically the home team, but this is not a true road game for the Chargers because they don’t have…
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Continue reading →: San Francisco 49ers at Kansas City Chiefs: 2018 Week 3 NFL Pick
San Francisco 49ers (1-1) at Kansas City Chiefs (2-0) The Chiefs’ offense has been incredible through 2 games, scoring a league high 10 touchdowns and picking up first downs at a 48.62% rate. Despite that, they still have a negative first down rate differential, as their defense has incredibly allowed…
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Continue reading →: Green Bay Packers at Washington Redskins: 2018 Week 3 NFL Pick
Green Bay Packers (1-0-1) at Washington Redskins (1-1) The Redskins lost 21-9 at home to the Colts last week, but that game was closer than the final score. The Redskins won the first down battle 20 to 17 and the Colts only had 3 scoring drives, but they were 3…
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Continue reading →: Indianapolis Colts at Philadelphia Eagles: 2018 Week 3 NFL Pick
Indianapolis Colts (1-1) at Philadelphia Eagles (1-1) Last week, the Colts were 5.5 point underdogs in Washington. They ended up winning that game 21-9, and, as a result, they are now only 6.5 point underdogs in Philadelphia, even though the Eagles are significantly more talented than the Redskins and are…
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Continue reading →: Oakland Raiders at Miami Dolphins: 2018 Week 3 NFL Pick
Oakland Raiders (0-2) at Miami Dolphins (2-0) The Raiders have started 0-2, while the Dolphins have started 2-0, but I have the Raiders about a point better in my roster rankings. The Dolphins’ wins have come over the Jets and the primarily Blaine Gabbert led Titans, while the Raiders’ losses…
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Continue reading →: Denver Broncos at Baltimore Ravens: 2018 Week 3 NFL Pick
Denver Broncos (2-0) at Baltimore Ravens (1-1) The Ravens lost in Cincinnati last week, but they remain overrated, favored by 5.5 points this week over the Broncos. The Ravens went 9-7 last season, finished 10th in first down rate, and had the best point differential (+92) of any team that…
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Continue reading →: New England Patriots at Detroit Lions: 2018 Week 3 NFL Pick
New England Patriots (1-1) at Detroit Lions (0-2) The Patriots lost last week in Jacksonville, but they get a much easier game this week in Detroit. The Lions have gone 9-7 in back-to-back seasons, but they have finished with a negative first down rate differential both seasons. They’ve had a…
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