Chicago Bears 2023 NFL Season Preview

stevenlourie 2023 NFL Season Previews, Bears

Quarterback

Expectations were very low for the Bears last season, starting a rebuild that left them with by far the lowest combined average annual salary of any roster in the league, parting ways with numerous high-paid veterans last off-season, following mediocre finishes in 2019 (8-8), 2020 (8-8), and 2021 (6-11). The Bears surprised a lot of people with a 2-1 start in 2022, but went on to lose their last 11 games in a row after starting 3-3. Losing all those games will likely prove to be a good thing in the long run though, as the Bears earned the #1 pick for finishing with the worst record in the league, a huge asset for their rebuild, along with the league’s most cap space this off-season, after a year of minimal spending.

The #1 pick left the Bears with the choice between drafting one of the top quarterbacks, in a draft in which three quarterbacks ended up going in the first four picks, which would mean trading Justin Fields, the quarterback they selected 11th overall just two years ago, or trading the #1 pick and building around Fields as the quarterback of the future. The Bears chose the latter, sending the #1 pick to the Panthers for the 9th pick, the 61st pick, a 2024 first round pick, a 2025 second round pick, and talented young wide receiver DJ Moore.

Time will tell whether the Bears made the right move and it’s tough to evaluate their decision without knowing what kind of return Justin Fields would have brought in a trade, but the Bears’ decision makes sense as Fields is more of a proven commodity than any of the quarterbacks in this draft and likely still has untapped potential, only heading into his age 24 season. The downside with Fields compared to a rookie is he is two years into his rookie contract, meaning he’ll be due a hefty pay raise on a long-term extension within the next couple years, but the Bears have the cap space to afford that. 

Fields might not have the upside as a passer as some of the quarterbacks in this draft class and he has been inconsistent in that aspect of his game thus far in his career, completing 59.7% of his passes for an average of 6.99 YPA, 24 touchdowns, and 21 interceptions, but he is a weapon as a runner, averaging 6.74 YPC with 10 touchdowns on 232 carries, and his inconsistent passing production has in large part been due to his lack of a supporting cast. With the Bears building around Fields this off-season, he has a good chance to take a leap forward as a passer in his third season in the league in 2023.

One area of concern is backup quarterback, with the Bears’ best options as of now being Nathan Peterman and PJ Walker, who have career QB ratings of 39.4 and 63.9 respectively. Fields’ playing style naturally leaves him more prone to injury and the Bears would be in big trouble if that happened without a capable option behind him. The Bears should address this position before training camp.

Grade: B-

Receiving Corps

As I mentioned, a big part of the return from Carolina for the #1 pick was talented young receiver DJ Moore, who gives the Bears another big needed weapon in the receiving corps. The 24th overall pick in the 2018 NFL Draft by the Panthers, Moore has been one of the best receivers in the league since entering the league, totaling the 11th most receiving yards in the league over the five years since he entered the league, despite regularly having mediocre quarterback play. 

Moore’s 63/888/7 slash line and 73.9 PFF rating in 2022 were his lowest since his rookie season, while his 1.74 yards per route run were the worst of his career, but those figures are all still above average, last season was arguably the worst quarterback play he’s ever had and, still only going into his age 26 season with minimal injury history (two games missed in five seasons), there’s no reason why Moore can’t bounce back now on a better offense in Chicago. His presence should be a big boost for this passing game.

Moore’s addition isn’t the only reason to be optimistic about this receiving corps either, as the Bears could also get a bounce back year from Darnell Mooney, who was limited to a 40/493/2 slash line in 12 games in an injury plagued 2022 season, but who also is just a season removed from a 81/1055/4 slash line as the Bears’ #1 receiver in Fields’ rookie season in 2021, and who is still only heading into his age 26 season and theoretically in the prime of his career. Despite a big drop off in receiving yards, Mooney wasn’t actually that much worse in 2022 than he was in 2021, with his PFF rating only dropping from 74.7 to 69.2 and his yards per route run only dropping from 1.72 to 1.58. 

Mooney isn’t as proven as Moore, with only one season of 1,000+ yards in three seasons in the league, and he likely won’t see the 140 targets he had in 2021 (11th most in the league), with Moore now in town, so he’s unlikely to be as productive overall as 2021, but he could easily be more efficient than he has been the past two seasons, with another talented receiver to take some of the coverage away from him. Moore will likely be the Bears’ de facto #1 receiver, but Mooney is a good #2 receiver to have as well.

The Bears also traded for another young receiver Chase Claypool at last year’s trade deadline. The Bears overpaid, giving up what ended up being the 32nd pick in the draft, for a receiver who did next to nothing in his 7 games with the Bears (14/140/0) and who only has one year left on his cost controlled rookie deal, but Claypool is still a talented receiver who should be able to give the Bears more than he did a year ago, now with a full off-season in the system under his belt. 

Claypool has seen his PFF rating (75.5 to 67.2 to 61.8) and yards per route run (1.90 to 1.67 to 1.07) drop off in each of the past two seasons since a promising rookie season in 2020, but he’s still only going into his age 25 season and has the potential to be a useful receiver for the Bears. They still overpaid, giving up a premium pick for a player who will likely be their third receiver this year, but he should be more useful for the Bears than he was a year ago.

With Moore coming in, Mooney likely to be healthier, and Claypool likely to be more productive, the Bears likely won’t need big roles from veteran journeymen Equanimeous St. Brown (555 snaps in 2022) and Dante Pettis (523 snaps), who will now be reserves if they even make the final roster. The Bears also used a 4th round pick on Cincinnati’s Tyler Scott and could get more out of 2022 3rd round pick Velus Jones, who couldn’t crack a weak wide receiver group as a rookie (158 snaps played), but who has the upside to give the Bears more in year two.

The Bears also have a promising young tight end in Cole Kmet, who they selected in the 2nd round in 2020. Kmet had a mediocre rookie season, but has seen his yards per route run average increase to 1.23 in 2021 and 1.27 in 2022, both decent numbers for a tight end, especially when you consider that Kmet has played on a mediocre offense overall over the past few years. He’s also proven to be a solid blocker as well and, only going into his age 24 season, could easily have more untapped upside as a pass catcher and run blocker. He probably won’t be a huge part of the Bears’ offense this season with an improved receiving corps around him, but he still should be a useful player for this offense.

Kmet will likely be backed up by former Packer Robert Tonyan, who the Bears added in free agency this off-season. Undrafted in 2017, Tonyan came out of nowhere to have a 60/668/12 slash line with the Packers in 2020 (1.55 yards per route run), but he benefited significantly from playing with Aaron Rodgers and, even with Rodgers as his quarterback, Tonyan has averaged just 1.22 yards per route run in his career outside of that 2020 campaign. He’s a solid backup who can make some starts if needed, but he’s unlikely to ever come close to repeating what he did in 2020. Overall, this is a much improved receiving corps from a year ago, which should lead to more consistent passing performances from young quarterback Justin Fields.

Grade: B+

Offensive Line

Along with DJ Moore, the 9th overall pick was a big part of what the Bears received in return for the top pick. The Bears traded down one more time from 9 to 10, but ultimately settled on Tennessee offensive tackle Darnell Wright, who will also fill a big need for the Bears, whose offensive line play has been as big of a problem for their offense as their receiving corps has been. Larry Borom (7 starts) and Riley Reiff (10 starts) were the Bears’ primary right tackles last season, but both were middling at best and, even if he has some rookie struggles, Wright has a much higher upside long-term. Reiff is no longer with the team, while Borom will likely be the primary swing tackle, which is a good role for him, after holding his own in 15 starts over the past two seasons since being selected in the 5th round by the Bears in 2021.

Wright will play the right side because left tackle Braxton Jones was one of the few bright spots on this mediocre offensive line, finishing with a 75.4 PFF grade in 17 starts as a rookie, 20th best among offensive tackles, despite only being a 5th round rookie. Jones is still unproven and the fact that the whole league let him fall to the 5th round a year ago can’t be ignored yet, so it wouldn’t be a surprise if he wasn’t quite as good in his second year in the league, but he also could easily still have further untapped upside and could be as good or even better in his second season in the league. At the very least, he should be a solid starter, with the upside for more.

Another bright spot on this offensive line last season was guard Teven Jenkins, who finished with a 80.7 PFF rafting in 11 starts, actually making him PFF’s third highest graded guard. Jenkins was a second round pick by the Bears in 2021, but he missed most of his rookie year with injury and was so horrible in the limited action he did see that some felt he was already a bust and wondered if he would even make the Bears’ team in 2022. 

When Jenkins couldn’t earn a starting job at tackle in 2022, the Bears kicked him inside to guard and, from his first full game at guard in week 5, he seemed to be significantly more comfortable at his new position, a full year removed from his major injury. He’s still relatively unproven and his season ended with another injury, so durability is a concern for a player who has made just 13 starts in his first two seasons in the league combined, but he has the upside to develop into one of the better guards in the league long-term if he can stay healthy. The selection of Darnell Wright to bookend Braxton Jones long-term ensures that Jenkins will stay at guard, which is the best case scenario for him.

In addition to the big return they got for the #1 pick, the Bears also used their league leading amount of cap space to address some needs in free agency, including the offensive line, which should get a big boost from free agent acquisition Nate Davis, who comes over from the Titans on a 3-year, 30 million dollar deal. A third round pick in 2019, Davis struggled his rookie season, but has turned into a solid player with PFF grades of 71.1, 69.2, and 70.6 over the past three seasons respectively, with his 2022 grade ranking 16th in the league among guards. He’s not an elite guard, but he’s a solid starter with experience (54 career starts) and is still in the prime of his career in his age 27 season, so his contract should prove to be a good value and he fills a need for the Bears’ upfront.

With Davis coming in and Jenkins staying at guard, the Bears will likely kick veteran Cody Whitehair inside to center, but he has experience at all three interior offensive line positions and he should be an upgrade over mediocre incumbent Sam Mustipher, who is no longer with the team. Whitehair’s age is becoming a concern, heading into his age 31 season, but he has been at least a solid starter in all seven seasons in the league (107 starts) and it wouldn’t be a surprise at all if he continued that into 2023. 

Whitehair should still be a better option than Lucas Patrick, who has the versatility to play all three interior positions and who has made 31 starts over the past three seasons, but who has been middling at best in those three seasons (PFF ratings of 64.8, 57.2, and 55.9 respectively) and who would be best as a versatile reserve rather than a starter. With Nate Davis and Darnell Wright being added to the starting lineup, the Bears have a noticeably better group upfront this year than a year ago and, with several players who were forced into starting roles last year now being reserves, their depth is a lot better as well. This is a solid group with the upside to be more, with most of their starters aside from Whitehair being relatively young.

Grade: B+

Running Backs

The Bears didn’t retain running back David Montgomery as a free agent this off-season, after he lead the team in carries in each of the past four seasons, but Montgomery was mediocre for most of his time as the starter in Chicago, averaging just 3.94 YPC on 915 carries over the past four seasons, and the Bears feel they have a better option in 2021 6th round pick Khalil Herbert, who has averaged 5.02 YPC on 232 carries as Montgomery’s backup over the past two seasons, including a 5.67 YPC on 129 carries in 2022 that dwarfed Montgomery’s 3.99 YPC on 201 carries.

The gap between Montgomery and Herbert is smaller when you look at carry success rate, with neither back doing a good job of keeping this offense on schedule, as Herbert ranked 34th out of 42 eligible backs with a 47% carry success rate and Montgomery ranking 39th with a 46% carry success rate, but, any way you look at it, Herbert was their most effective running back last season and Montgomery’s departure should open up a bigger role for him. He wasn’t as effective as his impressive YPC average last season would suggest and it’s unclear how he’ll handle a larger workload, but he has a good chance to be an upgrade over what Montgomery was last season.

The Bears also added a couple other backs this off-season to take some of the workload away from Herbert, signing veteran D’Onta Foreman to a 1-year, 2 million dollar deal in free agency and then using a 4th round pick on Texas’ Roschon Johnson. Foreman is a bigger back at 6-0 235 who can take some short yardage carries away from the 5-9 212 pound Herbert and, after an injury plagued start to his career, the 2017 3rd round pick has averaged 4.40 YPC on 336 carries over the past two seasons, with carry success rates of 50% and 52% respectively. He’s a good power complement to the smaller, speedier Herbert. 

Johnson, meanwhile, will likely be the #3 back as a rookie, but should still have a role in passing situations, where his upside intrigues the Bears. Neither Foreman (23 catches in 43 career games), nor Herbert (23 catches in 30 career games) are much use in passing situations, so many of those snaps will go to the rookie. Johnson could prove to be overwhelmed in that role in year one, so passing down back could be a position of weakness for the Bears in 2022, but this isn’t a bad backfield overall, with Herbert and Foreman both being solid early down options and Johnson at least possessing upside in passing situations.

Grade: B-

Interior Defenders

As bad as the Bears’ were on offense last season, their defense was even worse. While their offense ranked 25th in DVOA, their defense was dead last and by a pretty wide margin. Fortunately, defensive performance tends to be much less consistent on a year-to-year basis than offensive performance and the Bears also added a significant amount of talent to their defense this off-season, making use of their league leading cap space. At the interior defender position, the Bears didn’t make any splash additions, but they didn’t have a single interior defender earn higher than a 49.2 grade from PFF last season so it won’t take much for the Bears to be better at this position in 2023.

Justin Jones (746 snaps), Armon Watts (531 snaps), Angelo Blackson (393 snaps), and Mike Pennel (363 snaps) were their top-4 interior defenders last season and only Jones remains for 2023. Jones also has a good chance to be better in 2023 than 2022, as his 45.8 PFF grade from 2022 was the worst of his career. Jones’ better years came on much lower snap counts than his 2022 snap count (his 527 snaps he played in 2020 were previously his career high), but the Bears probably won’t need as many snaps from him in a better position group in 2023. He’ll probably remain a mediocre option and he only has a PFF grade higher than 60 in one of his five seasons in the league, but he should be better than last year and he should play a smaller role as well.

To try to improve this position group, the Bears used second and third round picks on Florida’s Gervon Dexter and South Carolina’s Zacch Pickens respectively and added veteran Andrew Billings in free agency. Even as rookies, I would expect Dexter and Pickens to be upgrades over what the Bears had at the position last season, though it would not be a surprise at all to see both players go through growing pains in year one. Both have the upside to be solid starters long-term, but we might not see that from them this season.

Billings, meanwhile, is just a situational run stuffer, managing only a 6.0% pressure rate for his career, but he didn’t break the bank on a 1-year, 2.75 million dollar deal and, even just as a run stuffer, he should be an upgrade over what the Bears had a year ago. His 72.3 run defense grade from PFF in 2022 was a career high, but he also had grades of 68.8 and 68.4 in 2018 and 2019 respectively, which were his last two healthy seasons prior to last year, with most of 2020 and 2021 lost to injury. Durability remains a concern for Billings going forward, but he’s only in his age 28 season and should remain at least a solid run stuffer as long as he can stay on the field.

The Bears also signed DeMarcus Walker and Rasheem Green, who are hybrid players who can play both on the edge and on the interior of the Bears’ defensive line. On the interior, their primary role will likely be as situational pass rushers in sub packages and obvious passing situations. Walker was the bigger signing, coming over on a 3-year, 21 million dollar deal while Green got 2.5 million on a one-year deal, and Walker will likely have the bigger impact as well. 

A second round pick in 2017, Walker’s career got off to a slow start, but he has proven to be a late bloomer over the past couple seasons, totaling 9 sacks, 17 hits, and a 11.3% pressure rate as a part-time player for the Texans and Titans and is still relatively young in his age 29 season, so I wouldn’t expect a sudden drop off from him. Walker leaves something to be desired against the run and has never played more than 458 snaps in a season so he’s a projection to a larger role, but he should be a useful situational pass rusher for them and his ability to play both inside and outside will be valuable as well.

Green, meanwhile, has played bigger snap counts in his career, averaging 581 snaps per season over the past four years, but he doesn’t have the same pass rush productivity (8.5% pressure rate over those four seasons) and isn’t much of a run defender either. In fact, his 62.4 PFF grade last season was the highest of his career, finishing below 60 in each of his first four seasons in the league prior to last season. The 2018 3rd round pick is still only in his age 26 season and could theoretically have untapped upside, but he’ll likely have to play a big role again on this defense and I would expect him to continue being middling at best. The Bears’ interior defender group should be better in 2023 than it was in 2022, but that could largely be by default.

Grade: C

Edge Defenders

While Walker and Green will see some action on the interior in passing situations, they will primarily be counted on for big roles on the edge. That’s because, like the interior defender position, the Bears didn’t have a single edge defender play a snap for them last season and earn even an average grade from PFF, but, unlike the interior defender position, the Bears didn’t add any other players of note this off-season, relying primarily on Walker and Green, as well as holdovers Trevis Gipson and Dominique Robinson, who finished last season 120th and 124th respectively among 129 eligible edge defenders on PFF, across snap counts of 649 and 541 respectively.

Gipson and Robinson are both recent 5th round picks (2020 and 2022 respectively) and both have the upside to be better this season than last season, but both are still underwhelming options and, even if they are better than a year ago, they could still have below average seasons. Gipson probably has the better chance to have a solid season, as he received a PFF grade of 70.4 on 489 snaps in 2021, but that’s his only above average season in three seasons in the league and it came on a much smaller snap count than the one that he handled last year and that he will likely see again in 2023, in once again an underwhelming position group. He’s a decent pass rusher with a career 10.0% pressure rate, but he has struggled mightily against the run throughout his career.

Robinson, meanwhile, could take a step forward in year two, but it also wouldn’t be a surprise if he never developed into even a solid rotation player, given where he was drafted and how much he struggled as a rookie, particularly as a pass rusher, managing just a 5.3% pressure rate. Walker and Green aren’t bad additions and could easily be better than what the Bears had at the edge defender position a year ago and Gipson and Robinson theoretically have untapped upside, but, even if they’re better at this position than a year ago, this still figures to be a position of weakness for the Bears in 2023.

Grade: C-

Linebackers

The position on defense where the Bears committed the most resources this off-season is the off ball linebacker position. Tremaine Edmunds and TJ Edwards were signed to contracts worth 72 million over 4 years (4th highest average annual value among off ball linebackers) and 19.5 million over 3 years respectively and both figure to play close to every down for this team. Edmunds is the bigger name and has the most upside as a former first round pick only going into his age 25 who earned a PFF grade of 79.0 in 2022, but Edmunds is a one-year wonder in terms of earning the grade from PFF that he did, struggling mightily in coverage earlier in his career before breaking out with a 88.1 coverage grade in 2022.

Because of Edmunds past struggles and his bigger contract, Edwards is likely to prove to be the better value of the two signings, earning grades of 66.5, 76.3, and 84.8 from PFF over the past three seasons respectively and also still being relatively young like Edmunds, only going into his age 27 season. It’s possible that neither Edmunds nor Edwards is quite as good as a year ago, when they earned the 11th highest and 2nd highest grade respectively among off ball linebackers from PFF, both doing so across 1,000+ snaps each, but both should remain at least above average every down linebackers and both should be significant upgrades over the underwhelming linebacking corps the Bears had a year ago. 

The only off ball linebacker of note that the Bears brought back from last year’s team is Jack Sanborn. The Bears won’t have much need for a third linebacker with Edmunds and Edwards playing every down, but they do play a 4-3 defense, which means they’ll use a third linebacker in certain base packages and that role will likely fall to Sanborn, who flashed some potential on 330 snaps last season, despite being an undrafted rookie. He would probably be a big drop off from Edmunds or Edwards if he had to fill in as an every down injury replacement, but he should be able to hold his own in a situational role. His biggest competition for the third linebacker job will be veteran special teamer Dylan Cole and 5th round rookie Noah Sewell, both of whom would be underwhelming options. Led by every down players Edmunds and Edwards, this is a talented linebacking corps and their depth isn’t bad either.

Grade: A-

Secondary

The Bears didn’t make any big additions in the secondary this off-season, but there is still reason to believe they can be better in this unit in 2023. For one, they have a pair of 2022 2nd round picks who could take a step forward in year two. Kyler Gordon improving would be the most impactful of the two, as the Bears are counting on him as a starting cornerback, but he struggled mightily in that role as a rookie, finishing 124th out of 136 eligible cornerbacks on PFF across 14 starts (863 snaps). 

That’s definitely not a good start to his career and even if he is better in 2023 it could largely be by default, but a bad rookie year also doesn’t mean that Gordon can’t develop into an above average starter long-term, even if he doesn’t become that in his second season in the league. Safety JaQuan Brisker was the other rookie second round pick who started for the Bears in the secondary last season and he held up much better in year one than Gordon did, finishing with a solid 67.0 grade in 15 starts (954 snaps). He should at least be a solid starter again and has the upside for more in his second year in the league.

The Bears also could get a healthier year out of fellow starting safety Eddie Jackson, who was limited to 697 snaps in 12 games last season. Jackson was PFF’s 15th ranked safety last season before he got hurt and is one of their best players when healthy, so his return will be a welcome one, but he also has a history of inconsistency and might not be as good in 2023 as he was in 2022 before getting hurt. Jackson was also PFF’s #1 ranked safety in 2018, but, aside from that season and last season, he hasn’t had another season with 70 grade or higher from PFF and he’s finished below 60 twice in six seasons in the league. He’s still relatively young in his age 29 season, but his inconsistent history makes it tough to count on him being a high level starter again, even if he ends up playing more games than he did a year ago.

Jaylon Johnson is another starter who missed time in the Bears’ secondary last season, limited to 656 snaps in 11 games. A second round pick in 2020, Johnson was middling at best before going down last season (62.9 PFF rating) and his career best PFF rating in three seasons in the league is just 64.2 in 2021, but he could still have untapped upside, still only going into his age 24 season and, even if he doesn’t take a step forward this season, he should still be a welcome return given how much the Bears’ cornerbacks struggled in his absence last season, with Johnson being the only one who played significant snaps who even earned a middling grade from PFF.

The one addition the Bears did make to this group this off-season was using another second round pick on the unit, selecting Miami’s Tyrique Stevenson, which is another reason to expect better play out of the Bears’ secondary in 2023. Stevenson will likely have growing pains in year one, but it wouldn’t be hard for him to be an upgrade over Jaylon Jones (48.4 PFF rating across 466 snaps) or Kindle Vildor (59.4 PFF rating across 531 snaps), who will likely be reserves at best in 2023 with Stevenson being added and Johnson returning from injury. 

Stevenson figures to be the third cornerback, behind Johnson and Gordon, and the Bears added another cornerback in the 5th round (Minnesota’s Terell Smith) to give them additional depth at the position. Depth is still a concern at the cornerback position if one of their top-3 cornerbacks gets hurt, as it is at the safety position, where 2022 7th round pick Elijah Hicks (just 168 defensive snaps played as a rookie) and 2023 7th round pick Kendall Williamson are penciled in as the primary reserves, but, even with depth concerns and an overall young, inexperienced unit, it wouldn’t be hard for this group to be better than they were a year ago.

Grade: B-

Conclusion

The Bears finished with the worst record in the league last season, but that was largely by design, as the Bears’ primary goal last season was to accumulate cap space and draft capital that they could use to rebuild their team in 2023 and beyond. The Bears also probably weren’t the worst team in the league last season, despite their record, as 8 of their 14 losses came by one score or less and both the Texans and Colts finished with a lower DVOA than they did.

The Bears did a good job using their cap space and draft capital to rebuild this roster and are a much more talented team now than they were a year ago, with key additions that include wide receiver DJ Moore, first round offensive tackle Darnell Wright, guard Nate Davis, and off ball linebackers TJ Edwards and Tremaine Edmunds, all of whom should give them above average play at positions where they did not get that a year ago. 

The Bears might not be a playoff team in 2023, but considering how many of their losses were close a year ago, it wouldn’t be a surprise at all if the Bears turned a significant amount of those losses into wins this season and, in a division that will likely see both the Packers and Vikings decline from a year ago, the Bears have a shot to go from worst to first and earn a surprise division title. I don’t know if I would predict that happening, but it’s definitely a possibility and, even if they don’t win the division, the Bears should still be able to compete for a wild card spot in an overall weak NFC. I will have a final prediction at the end of the off-season when all previews are completed.

Prediction: 7-10, 3rd in NFC North

2018 NFL Draft Redo

stevenlourie NFL Draft Redos

1. Cleveland Browns – QB Josh Allen (Wyoming)

The Browns have their choice of two franchise quarterback prospects with this #1 overall pick, neither of whom is the quarterback they drafted here, Baker Mayfield. Josh Allen vs. Lamar Jackson is an interesting debate because Jackson has the best individual season of either quarterback, winning MVP in 2019 before Allen had even broken out as a franchise caliber quarterback, but Allen has been the better quarterback in each of the past three seasons and Jackson has missed ten games over the past two seasons combined. For that reason, it’s safer to project Josh Allen as the better quarterback going forward, even if the Browns can’t really go wrong with either option here.

2. New York Giants – QB Lamar Jackson (Louisville)

The Giants have the easiest choice in this re-draft, selecting whichever franchise quarterback the Browns don’t. The Giants’ original pick here Saquon Barkley is one of the better running backs in the league and the Giants eventually got a good season out of Daniel Jones, a 2019 first round pick, but top running backs aren’t nearly as valuable as top quarterbacks and Jackson is a much higher upside option at quarterback long-term than Jones. Jackson has had injury issues, but is one of the best quarterbacks in the league when healthy and would not fall out of the top-2 in a re-draft.

3. New York Jets – MLB Fred Warner (BYU)

The Jets are out of luck with the top-2 quarterbacks off the board and no clear third franchise quarterback in this draft, but they still have their pick of all of the best players at other positions. That could easily be Fred Warner, who has developed into arguably the best off ball linebacker in the league, despite being a mere third round pick. After a couple solid seasons as a starter to begin his career, Warner took things to another level in his third year and he has finished 1st, 12th, and 4th among off ball linebackers on PFF in three seasons since, one of just three linebackers to finish in the top-12 in each of the past three seasons. If the Jets had him in 2018, they would have needed to overpay veteran free agent CJ Mosley in free agency the next off-season.

4. Cleveland Browns – CB Jaire Alexander (Louisville)

The Browns aren’t unhappy with their original pick here, cornerback Denzel Ward, who they signed to a 4-year, 80.4 million extension that makes him the second highest paid cornerback in the league, but they can shoot a little higher in this re-draft and take Jaire Alexander. Ward was the better of the two cornerbacks in terms of PFF grade as a rookie, but Alexander has had the edge in each of the past four seasons since and is signed to a comparable long-term contract (4 years, 84 million) with the team who drafted him 18th overall, the Green Bay Packers. All things equal, I would rather have Alexander, whose best season (#1 ranked among cornerbacks on PFF in 2019) is significantly better than any full season Ward has had (career best 15th ranked finish among cornerbacks in 2020).

5. Denver Broncos – MLB Shaq Leonard (South Carolina State)

Shaq Leonard probably would have gone third if we were doing this re-draft a year ago, but falls slightly after missing almost all of the 2022 season with injury. A second round pick originally, Leonard played so well in his first four years in the league before getting hurt that he still deserves to go this high, finishing 7th, 7th, 10th, and 7th among off ball linebackers on PFF from 2018-2021, the only linebacker to finish in the top-10 in each of those seasons. Only going into his age 28 season in 2023, Leonard is expected to make a full recovery and should bounce back to being one of the best players in the league at his position. The Broncos’ original pick here, Bradley Chubb, had his moments of dominance, but hasn’t been consistently dominant enough to justify being drafted this high again.

6. Indianapolis Colts – G Quenton Nelson (Notre Dame)

Guards don’t usually go this high, but the Colts made an exception for Quenton Nelson and it definitely worked out for them, as Nelson instantly was one of the best guards in the league as a rookie, finishing 5th among guards on PFF, and has remained among the best at his position throughout his career, with three finishes in the top-5 at his position in five seasons in the league, with the exceptions being a couple years where he didn’t play quite as well due to injuries. The Colts, who locked Nelson up on a 4-year, 80 million dollar extension that makes him the highest paid guard in the league, don’t regret this one and would likely make this choice again, even with other great players still available.

7. Buffalo Bills – MLB Tremaine Edmunds (Virginia Tech)

The Bills aren’t able to keep their original pick here, Josh Allen, but they had two first round picks in this draft and got another high level player with their other first round pick, taking off ball linebacker Tremaine Edmunds. They’ll probably have to take him earlier to keep him this time around, but he’s worthy of this pick and the Bills wouldn’t want to lose him. He was a bit inconsistent early in his career, but broke out as PFF’s 11th ranked off ball linebacker in 2022 and, because he was one of the youngest first round picks all of time, he’s still only going into his age 25 season, at least two years younger than most players in this class, so his best days could still be ahead of him and he should remain one of the best players at his position for years to come. A free agent this off-season, Edmunds is a strong candidate for the franchise tag and will likely be one of the highest paid players at his position wherever he ends up.

8. Chicago Bears – MLB Roquan Smith (Georgia)

This was a dominant draft class at the off ball linebacker position and Roquan Smith was no exception. The Bears original pick here at 8, Smith was eventually traded to the Ravens during the 2022 season when the Bears could not agree on a long-term contract, but they got high level play from him for most of his four and a half seasons in Chicago and recouped a second round pick in a trade for him, so they would probably make this pick again if they had a choice. 

9. San Francisco 49ers – S Derwin James (Florida State)

Derwin James would likely have been a top-5 pick in this redraft if not for injuries, as he’s missed 32 games in 5 seasons in the league, but the 49ers have never been too worried about adding injury prone players and James is among the best safeties in the league when healthy, finishing 6th, 11th, and 12th among safeties on PFF in his three healthy seasons in the league. The 49ers had Jimmie Ward and Jaquiski Tartt at safety in 2018, but both of those players are injury prone and both Ward and James have the versatility to line up in a bunch of different spots, so the 49ers could easily play all three at the same time, assuming all are healthy. The 49ers originally used a third round pick in this draft to add at the safety position, taking Tarvarius Moore, but James is obviously an upgrade.

10. Arizona Cardinals – RB Nick Chubb (Georgia)

The Cardinals mistakenly gave a big contract extension to running back David Johnson during the 2018 off-season, which led to Johnson being paid about 20.5 million between 2018 and 2019 to average just 3.65 YPC across 352 carries. They could have avoided that if they had added an elite running back in the 2018 NFL Draft. Saquon Barkley is the best all-around back in this draft when he’s healthy, but Chubb is one of the best pure runners of the football in the league, averaging 5.24 YPC in his career, highest in the league among running backs with at least 1,000 carries over the past five seasons and he has been much more durable than Barkley has been throughout his career (7 games missed vs. 22 games missed), so he gets the slight edge here.

11. Miami Dolphins – S Minkah Fitzpatrick (Alabama)

The Dolphins originally drafted Minkah Fitzpatrick here and traded him a year later to the Steelers for another first round pick after an underwhelming rookie season. Fitzpatrick has broken out as one of the top safeties in the league since being sent to Pittsburgh though, finishing in the top-11 among safeties on PFF three times, maxing out as their 4th ranked safety in 2022, so the Dolphins might like to keep him if they had the chance to redo this.

12. Tampa Bay Buccaneers – RB Saquon Barkley (Penn State)

The Buccaneers had a big need for a running back in the 2018 off-season and, because they didn’t add one, they had to give 388 carries to Peyton Barber between 2018 and 2019, which he took for just a 3.46 YPC average. Saquon Barkley comes with some injury risk, but he’s rushed for 4.45 YPC and 29 touchdowns on 954 carries in his career, while adding another 247 catches and 8 touchdowns in the air in 60 career games, despite playing on a Giants offense that has generally been subpar around him throughout his career. He could especially thrive on a more talented Buccaneers offense.

13. Washington Redskins – WR DJ Moore (Maryland)

In 2017, the Redskins were led in receiving by Jamison Crowder, who had just a 66/789/3 slash line, and things got even worse in 2018, when their best wide receiver was Josh Doctson, with a 44/532/2 slash line. They could have really used a wide receiver like DJ Moore, who ranks 11th in the NFL with 5,201 receiving yards since entering the league in 2018, despite inconsistent quarterback play in Carolina.

14. New Orleans Saints – DE Bradley Chubb (NC State)

Bradley Chubb is an interesting case. He was the 5th overall pick in this draft by the Broncos originally and has had stretches of high level pass rush play, with 27.5 sacks, 35 hits, and a 11.6% pressure rate in 46 games across the 2018, 2020, 2022 seasons combined, but injuries limited him to just 1 sack, 9 hits, and a 7.6% pressure rate in 11 games in his other two seasons and he’s consistently left something to be desired as a run defender. His pass rush potential still makes him a valuable player, returning a first round pick to the Broncos when they traded him to the Dolphins during his contract year in 2022 and then receiving a 5-year, 110 million dollar extension once arriving in Miami, so he would still go relatively high in a re-draft, but he could fall out of the top-10. He would be a good fit for the Saints, who originally took another pass rusher here, Marcus Davenport, who has had a less impressive career than Chubb.

15. Oakland Raiders – OT Kolton Miller (UCLA)

Kolton Miller was regarded as a reach when the Raiders selected him 15th overall in this draft and he struggled early in his career, finishing 81st among 85 eligible offensive tackles on PFF as a rookie, but he’s arguably gotten better every season and has developed into one of the better players in the league at his position, finishing 44th, 34th, 8th, and 5th among offensive tackles on PFF over the past four seasons respectively. The Raiders, who kept him on a 3-year, 54 million dollar extension two off-seasons ago, would likely take him again in this scenario.

16. Buffalo Bills – G Wyatt Teller (Virginia Tech)

Along with Josh Allen and Tremaine Edmunds, the Bills also selected another stud player in this draft, guard Wyatt Teller, but unfortunately for them, they gave up on him too early and have watched him develop into one of the best guards in the league with the Browns, after the Bills traded the former 5th round pick to the Browns one year into his career, along with a 7th round pick, in exchange for a 5th and a 6th round pick. Teller was a backup for most of his first season in Cleveland, but, in three seasons since, Teller has finished 1st, 5th, and 17th among guards on PFF, cementing himself as one of the best players in the league at his position. The Bills get a chance to redeem themselves for that mistake and keep him this time around. He would have been a higher pick in this redraft if he didn’t take some time to develop, but he’s still worthy of a relatively high pick, even as an interior offensive lineman.

17. Los Angeles Chargers – OT Braden Smith (Auburn)

The Chargers have had offensive line problems seemingly for years, particularly at the right tackle position. Braden Smith, a second round pick in this draft, was an above average starting right tackle from the word go, finishing 29th among offensive tackles on PFF as a rookie, before finishing 9th, 17th, 16th, and 19th among offensive tackles over the past four seasons, making him one of the most consistent players in the league at his position, one of just three tackles to finish in the top-19 at the position on PFF in each of the past four seasons. If the Chargers had drafted him in 2018, they could have avoided the ill-advised free agent signing of Bryan Bulaga two off-seasons later. Right tackles aren’t quite as valued as left tackles, which is why Smith is still available, but he’s a great fit for the Chargers because that has been their worst position on the offensive line in recent years.

18. Green Bay Packers – CB Denzel Ward (Ohio State)

The Packers’ original pick here, Jaire Alexander, went off the board much earlier, as he has developed into one of the best cornerbacks in the league, but they can get a solid replacement for him with Denzel Ward still on the board. Ward is an intriguing case because he went 4th overall to the Browns and was kept by the Browns on a 5-year, 100.5 million dollar extension that makes him the second highest paid cornerback in the league, but he’s never missed fewer than two games in a season and he’s never finished higher than 15th among cornerbacks on PFF, while falling to 95th out of 136 eligible cornerbacks in an injury plagued 2022 campaign. He’s still a worthwhile addition for the Packers at this point though.

19. Dallas Cowboys – DE Josh Sweat (Florida State)

The Cowboys had just used a first round pick on an edge defender Taco Charlton in the 2017 NFL Draft, so it’s not surprising they didn’t take another one early in 2018, but Charlton was a massive bust who was gone from the Cowboys by 2019, so, in hindsight, they should have taken another edge defender early in 2018 to give them a bookend for DeMarcus Lawrence. Josh Sweat, who went to divisional rival Philadelphia in the 4th round, would be a good fit for the Cowboys. He took a couple years to develop and barely played as a rookie, but he has seen his sack total increase in every season in the league, leading to a career high 11 in 2022, and, in total, he has 28.5 sacks, 27 hits, and a 10.4% pressure rate in 62 games over the past four seasons, while playing at a high level against the run as well.

20. Detroit Lions – C Frank Ragnow (Arkansas)

Centers don’t usually go in the first round, but the Lions likely have no regrets about taking Frank Ragnow here originally and would likely take him again in this scenario. Originally a guard as a rookie in 2018, Ragnow was moved to center in his second season in the league and has been one of the best players in the league at the position ever since, ranking 6th and 2nd among centers on PFF in 2019 and 2020 respectively, missing almost all of 2021 with injury, but returning to finish 5th on PFF in 2022, anchoring one of the league’s best offensive line and run games. The Lions kept him on a 4-year, 54 million dollar extension two off-seasons ago, making him the highest paid center in the league.

21. Cincinnati Bengals – OT Brian O’Neill (Pittsburgh)

The Bengals had the underwhelming Bobby Hart at right tackle during the 2018 season and that position has remained a weakness for years since, one they unsuccessfully tried to fill with free agent signing La’El Collins last off-season. Brian O’Neill, a second round pick in this draft originally, has started 75 games at right tackle for the Vikings over the past five seasons and has earned at least an average grade from PFF in all five seasons, including a 24th ranked finish among offensive tackles in 2020 and a 8th ranked finish in 2022.

22. Tennessee Titans – TE Mark Andrews (Oklahoma)

The Titans were led in receiving by tight end Delanie Walker in 2017, but he was at the end of his career at that point and would catch just 25 more passes in his career. With Walker missing much of the year, the 2018 Titans didn’t have a tight end with more than 20 catches so someone like Mark Andrews would have been a big upgrade. Despite playing on a run heavy offense in Baltimore, Andrews has the third most receiving yards among tight ends since entering the league, while finishing in the top-5 among tight ends on PFF on each of the past four seasons, making him one of the best and most consistent players in the league at his position.

23. New England Patriots – OT Orlando Brown (Oklahoma)

The Patriots original pick here, left tackle Isaiah Wynn, had an up and down, injury plagued tenure in New England and can be easily upgraded in a redraft. Despite only being a third round pick, Brown, a Ravens draft pick, took over as a starter in week 7 of his rookie year and has made 75 of a possible 76 starts since, playing on both the right and the left side, while earning an above average grade from PFF in all five seasons, the last two of which came in Kansas City, who gave up a first round pick to acquire him in a trade. He’s not a truly elite player, maxing out as PFF’s 17th ranked offensive tackle for a season, but he’s highly reliable and consistent and a good value at this point in the draft.

24. Carolina Panthers – DT Vita Vea (Washington)

In the 2018 off-season, the Panthers had just lost defensive tackle Star Lotulelei to the Bills in free agency, being signed away on a big contract. They added veteran Dontari Poe as a replacement, but he was a middling option in his two years in Carolina and Vea would give them a much higher upside option inside next to Kawaan Short, who was getting up there in age at this point anyway. Vea was originally drafted 12th overall by the Buccaneers and only slips out of the top-20 because he’s coming off a down 2022 (career worst 62nd among interior defenders on PFF, particularly struggling against the run) and has missed 18 games in 5 seasons in the league. His upside is too good to pass on at this point though.

25. Baltimore Ravens – OT Jordan Mailata (Australia)

The Ravens originally used this pick on tight end Hayden Hurst, who has proven to be a bust. They did get steals in the 3rd round of this draft, when they took offensive tackle Orlando Brown and tight end Mark Andrews, but both have already been snatched up and are not available for the Ravens at this pick. They can still draft a good player at one of those positions though. Mailata is not as NFL ready as Brown was, coming to the NFL from Australia and not playing any college football, leading to Mailata not playing a single offensive snap in his first two seasons in the league, but he has broken out as one of the best left tackles in the league in three seasons since, finishing 42nd, 3rd, and 16th among offensive tackles on PFF. If the Ravens are willing to be patient, he is a steal at this point in the draft.

26. Atlanta Falcons – DE John Franklin-Myers (Stephen F. Austin)

I feel like I am giving the Falcons pass rush help every year in these redrafts, but for a team that hasn’t topped 39 sacks since 2004, that’s not surprising. John Franklin-Myers might not seem like someone worthy of this pick, but he’s developed into a very effective pass rusher, one capable of lining up both inside and outside. His sack totals don’t jump off the page and he took a couple years to develop, in part due to an injury that cost him his entire second season, but since returning from that injury he has added 32 hits and a 13.3% pressure rate to his 14 sacks over the past three seasons, very impressive for a player who frequently lines up inside as well. Overall, he has finished with a PFF pass rush grade of 76 or higher in each of the past three seasons, while holding his own against the run as well.

27. Seattle Seahawks – CB Charvarius Ward (Middle Tennessee State)

Charvarius Ward was never more than a solid cornerback in the first four years of his career with the Chiefs, but the 2018 undrafted free agent signed a 3-year, 40.5 million deal with the 49ers last off-season and promptly broke out as one of the top cornerbacks in the league in his first year in his new home, finishing as PFF’s 4th ranked cornerback, after previously topping out at 40th among cornerbacks in 2019. He played well enough last season to get first round consideration even after a nondescript start to his career. He would fill a big need for the Seahawks, who like big cornerbacks like the 6’1” Ward.

28. Pittsburgh Steelers – S Jessie Bates (Wake Forest)

The Steelers originally drafted safety Terrell Edmunds here and, while he’s been a decent starter, the Steelers can shoot higher at the position in a redraft, rather than using a first round pick again on a player they only re-signed for 2.5375 million over 1 year last off-season, after declining his 5th year option. Jessie Bates has been inconsistent throughout his career in Cincinnati, who took him in the second round originally, but he’s been one of the better safeties in the league at his best, finishing 12th, 1st, and 13th among safeties on PFF in 2018, 2020, and 2022 respectively, while middling seasons in 2019 and 2021 in between. He played well enough for the Bengals to franchise tag him last off-season and he figures to end up as one of the highest paid safeties in the league as a free agent this off-season, regardless of where he ends up. He could be a fit for the Steelers, who could have had him five years ago and kept him away from a divisional rival if they took him instead of Edmunds.

29. Jacksonville Jaguars – TE Dallas Goedert (South Dakota State)

Before signing Evan Engram to a one-year deal last off-season, the Jaguars hadn’t had a tight end with more than 350 receiving yards in a season since 2015. That would have been different if they had drafted Dallas Goedert at the end of the first round in 2018, which was commonly projected to them in mock drafts. Goedert has the 6th most receiving yards among tight ends since entering the league and would likely have had significantly more production if he didn’t spend the first three and a half years of his career splitting time with another talented tight end Zach Ertz. Even with his production being limited by splitting time, the Eagles still kept Goedert on a 4-year, 57 million dollar extension that makes him the 4th highest paid tight end in the league and he figures to prove to be worth it, now as the full-time starter.

30. Minnesota Vikings – OT Mike McGlinchey (Notre Dame)

The Vikings’ original pick here, cornerback Mike Hughes, was a bust who played just 24 games in three seasons for the Vikings before being traded away for a swap of a 7th round pick for a 6th round pick. They hit their second round pick, taking right tackle Brian O’Neill, but he’s already been taken in this scenario. Instead, they take another right tackle, Mike McGlinchey, who has also been a solid starting right tackle in his career, making 69 starts in five seasons with the 49ers, with his best years coming in 2018 (23rd among offensive tackles on PFF) and 2020 (21st). He didn’t quite live up to being the 9th overall pick in this draft, but he should still be a sought after free agent on the open market this off-season and is still worth a late first round pick in a redraft.

31. New England Patriots – WR Christian Kirk (Texas A&M)

The Patriots have famously struggled to draft wide receivers in the first round, but Christian Kirk, originally a second round pick by the Cardinals, would have been a good selection for them, to give them a much needed additional weapon for Tom Brady to throw to, late in his career in New England. Kirk was considered an overpay when he signed a 4-year, 72 million dollar deal with the Jaguars last off-season, but he broke out with his first 1000 yard season in his first season in Jacksonville in 2022 and the talented young receiver could have had more success early in his career if he was paired with a quarterback like Brady.

32. Baltimore Ravens – DE Marcus Davenport (UT San Antonio)

Originally taken 14th overall by the Saints, who traded away a future first round pick to move up to select him, Marcus Davenport has been a bit of a disappointment, managing just 21.5 sacks thus far in his career and missing at least two games with injury in every season in the league, with 19 games missed total. However, his peripheral pass rush numbers paint a better picture, as he also has 38 quarterback hits and a 13.1% pressure rate for his career. Also a good run defender, that has led to Davenport consistently finishing above average on PFF, with his best seasons coming in 2019 (18th among edge defenders) and 2021 (6th). His snap counts have been underwhelming, playing in just 450 snaps per season in his career, but there’s enough potential here for him to be taken in the late first round again in a redraft and it wouldn’t be a surprise if he got a lucrative contract on the open market as a free agent this off-season, despite his underwhelming sack totals. He would be a good fit for a Ravens team that in the 2018 off-season was a year away from losing Terrell Suggs to retirement and Za’Darius Smith to free agency.

Philadelphia Eagles vs. Kansas City Chiefs: Super Bowl LVII Pick

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Philadelphia Eagles (16-3) vs. Kansas City Chiefs (16-3) in Super Bowl LVII

The Chiefs have the slight edge in weighted DVOA over the Eagles entering this game (34.4% vs. 28.9%), but the Chiefs were also the healthier team for most of this team, averaging a SIC score that was about two points higher than the Eagles throughout the year, while in this game, the Eagles are the healthier team, possessing an edge of about two points in SIC score, in large part due to questions around the health of quarterback Patrick Mahomes’ ankle. That’s enough to nullify the Chiefs slight edge in weighted DVOA, but I would still take the Chiefs for pick ‘em purposes as small underdogs at +1.5. 

My numbers have this game about as close to even as you can get, with the Chiefs possessing the slight edge in terms of likelihood of victory. This line is so small though and, if this were a regular game, I would not recommend any bet, and I wouldn’t recommend an against the spread bet either way, but for the Super Bowl, a small bet on the Chiefs as small money line underdogs is appropriate, as the Chiefs should be considered no worse than 50/50 to win this game.

Kansas City Chiefs 30 Philadelphia Eagles 29 Upet Pick +105

Pick against the spread: Kansas CIty +1.5

Confidence: Low

2022 NFL Conference Championship Picks

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San Francisco 49ers (15-4) at Philadelphia Eagles (15-3)

The 49ers are underdogs in this game by 2.5 points, but they are the significantly better team in terms of weighted DVOA (+43.9% vs. +26.3%). The Eagles had key injury absences down the stretch that led to their slow finish and they have since gotten much healthier, but the 49ers had even more injury problems early in the season and still finished the year with a higher non-weighted DVOA (+30.9% vs. +27.7%). The Eagles enter this game with a SIC Score that is about six points above their season average, while the 49ers have a SIC Score that is about two points above their season average. 

The 49ers have also played much better on offense since inserting Christian McCaffrey and Brock Purdy into their starting lineup, leading to them being the hottest team in the league by far, on a 12-game winning streak, with just 4 games decided by fewer than 10 points. We’re getting great value with them as 2.5-point underdogs, as they should be favored by at least a field goal in this game, even on the road. The Eagles have a talented roster, but the 49ers are on another level and are a great bet both against the spread and on the money line at +130.

San Francisco 49ers 27 Philadelphia Eagles 24 Upset Pick +130

Pick against the spread: San Francisco +2.5

Confidence: High

Cincinnati Bengals (14-4) at Kansas City Chiefs (15-3)

These two teams are identical in weighted DVOA at +32.4% and this line, which favors the Chiefs at home by 1.5 points, reflects these two teams being even. With that in mind, injuries will likely be the deciding factor in who covers this spread. A look at the injury report would suggest the Chiefs have the significant edge in that department, as they don’t have any key players who are expected not to play, while the Bengals will be missing arguably their three best offensive linemen. In terms of SIC score, the Chiefs have a significant edge (91.7 vs. 83.8).

However, while the Chiefs won’t be missing any key players, how effective star quarterback Patrick Mahomes will be is a significant question in this game as he plays through an ankle injury that cost him part of last week’s game and limited him upon his return. Reports out of practice were good this week and, if he’s close to full strength, the Chiefs should be favored by significantly more than 1.5 points in this game against a banged up Bengals team, but it’s hard to be confident enough in an injured Mahomes for them to be worth betting this week. The Chiefs seem like the better side, but only for pick ‘em purposes.

Kansas City Chiefs 30 Cincinnati Bengals 27

Pick against the spread: Kansas City -1.5

Confidence: Low

2022 NFL Divisional Round Picks

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Dallas Cowboys (13-5) at San Francisco 49ers (14-4)

The Cowboys had a 12-5 regular season and won easily in the first round against the Buccaneers. However, the 49ers are a completely different level of competition, as they lead the league with a 38.6% weighted DVOA. Improved health has been a big part of the reason why they’ve been so good of late, after being one of the most injury plagued teams in the league for most of the season, and their SIC score of 90.8 this week is a 8.3-point improvement over their season average. On top of that, their offense has been significantly better since adding Christian McCaffrey and putting Brock Purdy in the starting lineup. 

The Cowboys, meanwhile, are significantly behind the 49ers in DVOA, ranking 7th at 13.7%, and they have a SIC score of 84.2 that is 1.7 points lower than their season average. Despite that, the 49ers are favored by just 4 points at home, so we’re getting good value with the favorite, as this line should be at least a touchdown, if not more, given the 49ers’ propensity to blow teams out, (16.9-point average margin of victory, 13 of 14 wins by more than 4 points). The 49ers are worth a bet big this week, as I don’t expect this one to be that close.

San Francisco 49ers 27 Dallas Cowboys 17

Pick against the spread: San Francisco -4

Confidence: High

Jacksonville Jaguars (10-8) at Kansas City Chiefs (14-3)

This game is a tough call. On one hand, the Chiefs are favored by 9.5 points and barely covered that number in their week 10 matchup with the Jaguars, a 10-point win over a Jaguars team that has played much better since, going 7-1 since a 3-7 start, including last week’s playoff win over the Chargers. The conventional thinking is this game should be closer than the first matchup, but that first game also could have been much more of a blowout if the Chiefs didn’t lose the turnover battle by 3, which is not predictive week-to-week. In terms of yards per play and first down rate, which are much more predictive than turnovers, the Chiefs held the edge by 2.6 and 12.8% respectively. 

The Chiefs also tend to turn it on in the playoffs and blow out opponents that they would have let hang around in the regular season, with six of their eight playoff victories in the Patrick Mahomes era coming by double digits. At the very least, I don’t expect the Chiefs to be as sloppy as they were with turnovers in the first matchup, so, even if the Jaguars are a significantly better team than they were a couple months ago, this game still might not be close, as the first game would not have been as close without the Chiefs’ turnovers. I don’t like the line value we are getting with the Chiefs, but there is a reason this line is still around where it was in the week 10 matchup between these two teams and the Chiefs should be the better side for pick ‘em purposes, if only for a no confidence pick.

Kansas City Chiefs 34 Jacksonville Jaguars 24

Pick against the spread: Kansas City -9.5

Confidence: None

Cincinnati Bengals (13-4) at Buffalo Bills (14-3)

A few weeks ago, I thought the Bengals had a good chance to pull the small upset against the Bills, which they looked on their way to doing before the game was suspended. The Bengals still only narrowly trail the Bills in weighted DVOA (34.9% vs. 25.0%), but things are going to be much tougher for them this time around, for a couple reasons. For one, this game is in Buffalo rather than Cincinnati, with the league unfairly not making this a neutral site game as they would with Bills/Chiefs, even though the Bengals could have hosted this game had they won the suspended first matchup. 

That could give the Bengals some added motivation, but I’m not sure if more motivation is needed at this point in the season and a bigger concern for the Bengals, beyond the location of this game, is the absence of arguably their top-3 offensive linemen, a pair of whom, left tackle Jonah Williams and right guard Alex Cappa, both played in the previous matchup. Without them and right tackle La’El Collins, who went down the week before the suspended game, the Bengals will have a tough time going into Buffalo and winning. This line is pretty high at 5.5, but my calculated line is -7, so the Bills should still be the right side at that number. I wouldn’t bet on this, but I like the Bills for pick ‘em purposes.

Buffalo Bills 31 Cincinnati Bengals 24

Pick against the spread: Buffalo -5.5

Confidence: Low

New York Giants (10-7-1) at Philadelphia Eagles (14-3)

The Eagles are 7.5-point home favorites in this matchup against the Giants. A few weeks ago, I would happily bet the Eagles at that number. The Giants made the playoffs in large part due to a weak schedule, they had unimpressive margins of victories, with 8 of 9 regular season wins coming by 8 points or fewer, and they went just 2-6 against playoff qualifiers, while the Eagles won 13 of their first 14 games, with 8 wins coming by margins of 8 points or more. The Eagles were 7-point favorites on the road against the Giants in week 14 and came out with a 26-point blowout victory.

However, the Eagles have slowed down in recent weeks due to injuries and now rank just 5th in weighted DVOA at 21.7%. They’ll get Josh Sweat and Lane Johnson this week, but there is no guarantee the latter will be 100% and, while quarterback Jalen Hurts returned two weeks ago before the bye, he did not look 100% and is not a guarantee to play at his highest level this week either. 

Meanwhile, it’s the Giants who are as healthy as they’ve been all season, with a SIC score that is 4.3 points above their season average, and they are playing their best football of the season as a result. In particular, their defense has benefited significantly from the return of Leonard Williams, Xavier McKinney, and Adoree Jackson, none of whom played in the Giants’ blowout loss to the Eagles a few weeks ago. If I knew Hurts and Johnson would be 100% I would pick the Eagles, but, since I don’t, I am taking the Giants for a no confidence pick.

Philadelphia Eagles 23 New York Giants 16

Pick against the spread: NY Giants +7.5

Confidence: None

2022 NFL Wild Card Round Picks

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New York Giants (9-7-1) at Minnesota Vikings (13-4)

The Vikings have the better record of these two teams, but the Giants have the significant edge in weighted DVOA (+0.5% vs. -18.6%), despite the fact that they have had significantly more injury problems this season than the Vikings. The Giants are not fully healthy, but they are healthier this week than they’ve been for much of the season, while the Vikings are moving in the wrong direction injury wise, losing several key players late in the season, most notably stud right tackle Brian O’Neill. Despite that, the Vikings are favorites of a field goal at home, suggesting they are the better team. My calculated line actually has the Giants favored by a field goal on the road, so we’re getting significant line value with the visitors, making them worth a large bet, both against the spread and on the money line.

New York Giants 27 Minnesota Vikings 24 Upset Pick +140

Pick against the spread: NY Giants +3

Confidence: High

Seattle Seahawks (9-8) at San Francisco 49ers (13-4)

This line is pretty high at 9.5, but the 49ers are on a 10-game winning streak right now and usually win big, with 10 of their 13 wins this season coming by double digits. One of their closer wins was an 8-point win over the Seahawks, but that game was in Seattle and wasn’t as close as the final score suggests, while the 49ers won by 20 in San Francisco earlier this season in a game that was not competitive. The 49ers also were not as healthy in those two games as they are now and, in large part due to improved health, the 49ers lead the league with a weighted DVOA of 38.6%, a big edge over the 15th ranked Seahawks (+4.1%). My calculated line has the 49ers being favored by 13 points, so the 49ers should be bettable at 9.5, even if only for a small play.

San Francisco 49ers 31 Seattle Seahawks 17

Pick against the spread: San Francisco -9.5

Confidence: Medium

Miami Dolphins (9-8) at Buffalo Bills (13-3)

These two teams played a pair of close divisional games earlier this season, with the Bills winning at home by three and the Dolphins winning at home by two. However, Tua Tagovailoa played in both games, which will not be the case in this game started by backup Skylar Thompson, and, even with Tagovailoa playing most of the season, the Dolphins have been a significantly worse team than the Bills this season in terms of weighted DVOA (+34.9% vs. +5.9%).

With that in mind, it’s safe to say this game in Buffalo won’t be nearly as close as the first two meetings between these teams. This line reflects that though, favoring the Bills by 14, and I actually think that’s a little high, with my calculated line at Buffalo -12. Because of that, I am going to take the Bills for pick ‘em purposes, but this is a no confidence pick, as the Bills could easily win by more than two scores if they play their best.

Buffalo Bills 27 Miami Dolphins 14

Pick against the spread: Miami +14

Confidence: None

Baltimore Ravens (10-7) at Cincinnati Bengals (12-4)

Franchise quarterback Lamar Jackson remains out for the Ravens this week and they are 3-8 without him over the past two seasons, but they haven’t gotten blown out in most of those games, losing by more than 7 points just 3 times in those 11 games. In fact, the Ravens have lost just 7 games total by more than 7 points over the past 4 seasons. That’s relevant considering this line favors the Bengals by 8.5 points.

One of those instances of losing by more than 7 points came against the Bengals last week, but the Ravens rested several key starters in that game and still only lost by 11, so it wouldn’t be a surprise at all to see them keep this one significantly closer, with a lineup that is significantly healthier around the quarterback position than it has been for most of the season. The Bengals, meanwhile, have lost a pair of starting offensive linemen, La’El Collins and Alex Cappa, to injury in the past few weeks. There isn’t quite enough here for the Ravens to be worth betting, but they should be the right side for pick ‘em purposes.

Cincinnati Bengals 23 Baltimore Ravens 17

Pick against the spread: Baltimore +8.5

Confidence: Low

Los Angeles Chargers (10-7) at Jacksonville Jaguars (9-8)

The Chargers have the better record of these two teams, but the Jaguars have a significant edge in point differential (+54 vs. +7). The Chargers have played significantly better in recent weeks and have narrowed the gap between these two teams in weighted DVOA, but the Jaguars still have the slight edge (+5.2% vs. +2.2%) and the Chargers’ improved play in recent weeks is largely because of their improved health, which is now going in the other direction with the absence of talented wide receiver Mike Williams. 

The Chargers are still healthier than they’ve been for most of the season, but they’re also still missing several key players, while the Jaguars remain one of the healthiest teams in the league, which is one of the biggest reasons they’ve had a better DVOA and point differential than Chargers this season. Despite that, they are home underdogs of 2.5 points, so we’re getting good line value with the Jaguars, who are worth betting against the spread and on the money line at +120. I would also likely increase this bet if this line moved up to a full field goal.

Jacksonville Jaguars 30 Los Angeles Chargers 27 Upset Pick +120

Pick against the spread: Jacksonville +2.5

Confidence: Medium

Dallas Cowboys (12-5) at Tampa Bay Buccaneers (8-9)

The Buccaneers beat the Cowboys by 16 in Dallas earlier this season and are now 2.5-point home underdogs, but that’s understandable when you consider that these two teams last faced back in week 1 and the Cowboys have significantly outplayed the Buccaneers since then, ranking 7th in weighted DVOA (13.7%), while the Buccaneers rank 25th in weighted DVOA (-11.6%). Injuries have been a big part of the reason why the Buccaneers have underachieved this season and they are significantly healthier now than they have been for most of the season, but my calculated line still has the Cowboys favored by a couple points, so we’re not getting significant line value with the Buccaneers.

That being said, I am still somewhat confident in the Buccaneers for pick ‘em purposes, purely because of Tom Brady’s history in big games. In his career, Tom Brady led teams are 60-33 ATS as underdogs of favorites or less than 3 points and 46-14 ATS against teams with a better record than his. This season has been different than the rest of Brady’s career in many ways and he is 3-6 ATS and 1-3 ATS respectively in those two situations, but they are legitimately a significantly healthier team now than most of the season. There’s not quite enough here for the Buccaneers to be worth betting against the spread unless we get a full field goal, but the money line is a good value, as the Buccaneers have a great chance of pulling the small upset.

Update: This line has showed up at +3 in some places. I think the Buccaneers are bettable at that number.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers 24 Dallas Cowboys 23 Upset Pick +125

Pick against the spread: Tampa Bay +3

Confidence: Medium

2022 Week 18 NFL Picks

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Arizona Cardinals (4-12) at San Francisco 49ers (12-4)

This line is high at 14, but the 49ers shouldn’t have too much trouble covering. Of their 12 wins this season, eight have come by more than 14 points and they lead the league in weighted DVOA (+36.0%). The Cardinals, meanwhile, rank 28th in weighted DVOA at -19.1% and the gap between these two teams is even bigger than that suggests, with the Cardinals being in much worse injury shape. 

While the Cardinals are starting a fourth string quarterback and have a SIC score of 66.4, 12.7 points worse than their season average, the 49ers have gotten much healthier in recent weeks, with a SIC score of 87.8 this week, 5.4 points above their season average. This line would probably be higher if there wasn’t concern the 49ers could pull key players in the second half of a blowout the week before the playoffs, but the 49ers have a good chance to cover this spread even if they do that, so the 49ers are my Pick of the Week this week.

San Francisco 49ers 31 Arizona Cardinals 10

Pick against the spread: San Francisco -14

Confidence: Pick of the Week

Houston Texans (2-13-1) at Indianapolis Colts (4-11-1)

This line, favoring the Colts by 2.5 points at home, suggests the Colts are the slightly better team, but, while both teams are awful, the Texans have a significant edge in weighted DVOA (-25.5% vs. -33.3%) and are the healthier team in terms of SIC score (82.7 vs. 79.6). My calculated line has the Texans favored by a couple points and, while there’s not enough here for a big bet, the Texans are worth a bet against the spread and on the money line.

Update: This line has moved up to 3, so I am increasing the confidence of this bet.

Houston Texans 20 Indianapolis Colts 17 Upset Pick +135

Pick against the spread: Houston +3

Confidence: High

Tennessee Titans (7-9) at Jacksonville Jaguars (8-8)

The Titans have lost 6 straight games after a 7-3 start, but that’s not that surprising. as the Titans’ wins were never that impressive. None of the Titans’ wins came against teams that currently have a winning record and almost all came by slim margins of victory. Only two of the Titans’ wins have come by more than a touchdown and neither win was as impressive as that suggests, as they needed a defensive touchdown to push the margin to 9 against the terrible Colts, while their 10-point win over the Packers came against a team in a terrible spot, playing on a short week after an overtime game, a spot in which teams are just 2-22 ATS all-time. 

Overall, the Titans rank just 26th in weighted DVOA (-10.2%), in part because they have gotten progressively more injury plagued throughout the season, resulting in a SIC score of 65.4 for this game, 11.6 points below their season average. Meanwhile, the Jaguars have a SIC score of 89.2 and have been one of the healthier teams in the league this season, a big part of the reason why they rank 15th (1.6%) in weighted DVOA. This line is pretty high at 6.5, but the Jaguars have won by 7 points or more in 6 of their 8 wins this season and the short-handed Titans are very overmatched in this game, with my calculated line being Jacksonville -9.5. The Jaguars aren’t worth a big play this week, but they are bettable.

Jacksonville Jaguars 27 Tennessee Titans 17

Pick against the spread: Jacksonville -6.5

Confidence: Medium

Detroit Lions (8-8) at Green Bay Packers (8-8)

Normally, the Packers are a good bet at home, as they are 50-22 ATS all-time at home in games started and finished by Aaron Rodgers, who has a QB rating that is 10 points higher at home than on the road, which is significantly above average. However, the Packers are favored by 5 points in this game, which seems to compensate too much for their homefield advantage. The Lions have the higher weighted DVOA (13.4% vs. 9.4%) despite having an average SIC score that is about 3 points lower than the Packers on the season and now they are about even in SIC score (86.3 vs. 86.1) this week, so they should be considered the better team and a strong candidate to pull the upset, even in Green Bay. Even if they can’t win outright, I like the Lions chances of keeping this within 5 points enough for them to be worth a small bet this week.

Green Bay Packers 26 Detroit Lions 24

Pick against the spread: Detroit +5

Confidence: Medium

Los Angeles Rams (5-11) at Seattle Seahawks (8-8)

The Seahawks are favored by 6 points here at home, but they arguably should be favored by significantly more, as they are the significantly better team in terms of weighted DVOA (+6.6% vs. -8.5%) and are also significantly healthier in terms of SIC score (86.7 vs. 68.5). The Rams played the Seahawks somewhat close in Los Angeles earlier this season, losing only by 4, but the Seahawks won the first down rate battle by 6.5% and the yards per play battle by 1.6 in that game and now they are at home, so they shouldn’t have much trouble blowing out the Rams.The Seahawks aren’t worth a big play, but my calculated line has them favored by 9 points, so there’s enough here for the Seahawks to at least be bettable.

Seattle Seahawks 27 Los Angeles Rams 17

Pick against the spread: Seattle -6

Confidence: Medium

Carolina Panthers (6-10) at New Orleans Saints (7-9)

The Saints have the significant edge in schedule adjusted DVOA in this matchup (6.1% vs. -6.9%) and are trending in a much better direction injury wise, with a SIC score this week that is 2.1 points above their season average, while the Panthers are 2.6 points below their season average. Despite that, the Saints are favored at home against the Panthers by just a field goal in some places. At that number, they are worth a big bet and they would be bettable in a smaller amount at 3.5 as well.

New Orleans Saints 20 Carolina Panthers 13

Pick against the spread: New Orleans -3

Confidence: High

Minnesota Vikings (12-4) at Chicago Bears (3-13)

This game is a tough call. On one hand, the Vikings are 6-point road favorites despite only having an average margin of victory of just 5.8 points, leading to them ranking just 29th in weighted DVOA at -19.4%. On the other hand, the Bears are so bad that even the Vikings might be able to beat them fairly easily. Not only do they rank 31st in weighted DVOA (-31.3%), but they are without their most important player, quarterback Justin Fields, as well as other key personnel, leading to them having a SIC score of 78.6, 5.4 points below their season average.

Meanwhile, the Vikings remain one of the healthiest teams in the league, as they have all season, with a SIC score of 89.7 this week, in line with their season average. My calculated line has the Vikings favored by just 3.5 points, but that might not fully take into account how bad this injury plagued Bears team is, now led by one of the worst quarterbacks in the NFL, Nathan Peterman. I’m taking the Vikings for pick ‘em purposes, even at 6, but this is one of my lowest confidence picks of the week.

Minnesota Vikings 24 Chicago Bears 17

Pick against the spread: Minnesota -6

Confidence: None

Tampa Bay Buccaneers (8-8) at Atlanta Falcons (6-10)

In normal circumstances, the Falcons would not be 4-point favorites this week, but there’s a chance the Buccaneers pull key players at some point in this game, as this game means nothing to them in standings, locked into the #4 seed in the NFC. My calculated line for normal circumstances is a pick ‘em, which actually doesn’t give us much line value with the Buccaneers if they do pull players, but I actually expect their starters to play most of the game as they try to build momentum for the playoffs, so I would take the Buccaneers would pick ‘em purposes. It’s hard to have any confidence in them this week though, given that this game is meaningless to them other than for momentum.

Atlanta Falcons 23 Tampa Bay Buccaneers 20

Pick against the spread: Tampa Bay +4

Confidence: None

Los Angeles Chargers (10-6) at Denver Broncos (4-12)

It’s tough to pick a side in this one, as this game would become meaningless for the Chargers in the likely event that the Ravens lose earlier in the day. This line reflects that, as the 4-12 Broncos are 3-point home favorites. My calculated line would be Chargers -6 in normal circumstances, so we’re getting significant line value with them in the off chance the Ravens win and, if the Ravens lose and the Chargers don’t take this game seriously, I think this line should be about +3, so it’s not like we’re on the wrong side even in a worst case scenario. This is still a no confidence pick, but the Chargers are the better side for pick ‘em purposes.

Denver Broncos 19 Los Angeles Chargers 17

Pick against the spread: LA Chargers +3

Confidence: None

New York Giants (9-6-1) at Philadelphia Eagles (13-3)

The Giants are another team with nothing to play for this week, locked into the #6 seed in the NFC. They are claiming they are treating this as a normal game, but the odds makers aren’t buying it, making the Eagles 14-point favorites. I am going to take the Giants at that number just because they could surprise people and play starters longer than expected, while the Eagles could pull injured quarterback Jalen Hurts if they get a big lead, but I can’t take the Giants with any confidence, given that this game is meaningless for them.

Philadelphia Eagles 26 New York Giants 13

Pick against the spread: NY Giants +14

Confidence: None

Cleveland Browns (7-9) at Pittsburgh Steelers (8-8)

This game is a tough call because this line is about right, favoring the Steelers at home by 2.5 points, suggesting they’re the slightly better team. The Browns have the edge in weighted DVOA (7.8% vs. 3.4%), but the Steelers are significantly healthier in terms of SIC score (90.1 vs. 82.3). The most likely outcome of this game is probably the Steelers winning by a field goal at home, so I am taking the Steelers for pick ‘em purposes at -2.5, but at 3, I might take the Browns, that’s how close this one is for me.

Pittsburgh Steelers 19 Cleveland Browns 16

Pick against the spread: Pittsburgh -2.5

Confidence: None

Kansas City Chiefs (13-3) at Las Vegas Raiders (6-10)

The Chiefs are the significantly better team in weighted DVOA (+24.9% vs. -4.6%) and significantly healthier in terms of SIC score (93 vs. 79.6), but this line takes that into account pretty well, favoring the Chiefs by 9.5 points on the road. In fact, that is exactly where my calculated line is, so this is one of the tougher calls of the week. I am taking the Chiefs just because them winning by 10 seems like the most likely outcome of this game, but this is a no confidence pick for pick ‘em purposes only.

Kansas City Chiefs 34 Las Vegas Raiders 24

Pick against the spread: Kansas City -9.5

Confidence: None

Baltimore Ravens (10-6) at Cincinnati Bengals (11-4)

The Ravens are just 3-7 without Lamar Jackson over the past two seasons and won’t have him for this matchup in Cincinnati, but they haven’t gotten blown out in most of those games, losing by more than 7 points just twice in those 10 games. In fact, the Ravens have lost just 6 games total by more than 7 points over the past 4 seasons. That’s relevant considering this line favors the Bengals by 9 points. 

Even without Lamar Jackson, the Ravens have a talented enough roster to keep this close and, aside from Jackson being out, the Ravens are actually much healthier than they’ve been most of the season, with a SIC score 3.4 points higher than their season average. The Ravens aren’t quite worth betting this week against a Bengals team that is legitimately one of the best in the NFL, but the Ravens should still be the right side for pick ‘em purposes and could easily keep this as a one-score game.

Update: The Ravens are surprisingly resting some key starters in this game to rest up before the playoffs, including tight end Mark Andrews and JK Dobbins. This line has moved up to 11.5 to compensate, but I don’t think that’s enough so I am switching this pick to the Bengals, albeit for a no confidence pick.

Cincinnati Bengals 24 Baltimore Ravens 12

Pick against the spread: Cincinnati -11.5

Confidence: None

Dallas Cowboys (12-4) at Washington Commanders (7-9)

This line has moved up to favoring the Cowboys by 7 points on the road because the Commanders are going with rookie third string quarterback Sam Howell, a 5th round pick making his first career start this week, but I think he could be a serviceable option and the Commanders haven’t had much better than serviceable under center most of this season. They still are talented enough around the quarterback to rank 20th in weighted DVOA at -4.4%, which isn’t good, but it isn’t so bad that they shouldn’t be underdogs of this many points at home, even against the Cowboys team that ranks 6th in weighted DVOA at 22.1%. There’s not quite enough here for the Commanders to be worth betting, but they should be the better side for pick ‘em purposes.

Dallas Cowboys 21 Washington Commanders 16

Pick against the spread: Washington +7

Confidence: Low

New York Jets (7-9) at Miami Dolphins (8-8)

Both of these teams will be starting backup quarterbacks this week, but the oddsmakers seem to think the Dolphins will fare better with their backup than the Jets will, moving this line from a pick ‘em to now favoring the Dolphins at home by a field goal. That’s surprising, as the Jets have an experienced option in Joe Flacco, while the Dolphins will be starting 7th round rookie Skylar Thompson. Neither option is that inspiring, but it’s surprising the Dolphins are favored by a full field goal with Thompson under center. My calculated line has the Dolphins favored by just 1 point, so we’re getting some line value with the Jets, though not enough for them to be bettable.

Update: This line has moved up to 4 and I think the Jets are bettable at that number, or at 3.5, with 1 in 4 games decided by 3 points or fewer.

Miami Dolphins 17 New York Jets 16

Pick against the spread: NY Jets +4

Confidence: Medium

New England Patriots (8-8) at Buffalo Bills (12-3)

This line favors the Bills by seven points at home against the Patriots, but they have a significant enough edge in weighted DVOA (29.4% vs. -0.7%) that they should be favored by more. They have 19 wins by more than 7 points over the past two seasons, including 8 this season and this looks likely to be another one of those big victories. There isn’t quite enough here for the Bills to be worth betting at -7, but my calculated line is Buffalo -9.5, so they are the better side for pick ‘em purposes and I would consider a bet if this line happened to drop to 6.5.

Buffalo Bills 27 New England Patriots 17

Pick against the spread: Buffalo -7

Confidence: Low

2022 Week 17 NFL Picks

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Arizona Cardinals (4-11) at Atlanta Falcons (5-10)

The Falcons have the significant edge in DVOA (-4.0% vs. -22.0%) and are the significantly healthier team in terms of SIC score (86.9 vs. 74.1), but their passing offense has struggled mightily since benching veteran Marcus Mariota for rookie Desmond Ridder, so the Falcons can’t be trusted to cover a 5.5-point spread. The Falcons are the better side for pick ‘em purposes, but are not worth betting this week.

Atlanta Falcons 20 Arizona Cardinals 13

Pick against the spread: Atlanta -5.5

Confidence: Low

Carolina Panthers (6-9) at Tampa Bay Buccaneers (7-8)

The Panthers enter this game as the healthier team in terms of SIC score (88.2 vs. 83.6), but that has been the case for most of the season and the Buccaneers still have a significant edge in DVOA (+0.4% vs. -13.5%). The Buccaneers are favored by four points at home, but they could be favored by more, with my calculated line at Tampa Bay -5.5. There’s not enough line value here for the Buccaneers to be worth betting, but they should be the better side for pick ’em purposes.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers 23 Carolina Panthers 17

Pick against the spread: Tampa Bay -4

Confidence: Low

Chicago Bears (3-12) at Detroit Lions (7-8)

The Lions have gotten significantly healthier since the early part of the season and that has resulted in them going 6-2 since a 1-6 start. The Lions rank 9th in DVOA at +4.4% and are arguably even better than that suggests as it includes the Lions’ slow start to the season. The Bears have been more competitive than their record suggests, with 7 losses by 8 points or fewer, but they still rank 29th in DVOA (-21.2%) and have a good chance to lose by multiple scores against a Lions team that is significantly above average when healthy. This line is relatively high at Detroit -6, but I think there’s still enough line value with Detroit for them to be bettable.

Detroit Lions 34 Chicago Bears 24

Pick against the spread: Detroit -6

Confidence: Medium

Cleveland Browns (6-9) at Washington Commanders (7-7-1)

The Browns haven’t been significantly better since getting quarterback Deshaun Watson back from injury, but that could still change and the Browns have still been the better of these two teams this season in terms of DVOA (+2.4% vs. -4.8%), regardless of who has been under center. Because of that, the Browns should have a good chance to pull the small upset on the road in Washington, but with the Commanders only being 2-point underdogs, there is not enough here for the Browns to be worth betting against the spread. The Browns are still the pick for pick ‘em purposes though and the money line is a decent value at +110.

Cleveland Browns 24 Washington Commanders 23 Upset Pick +110

Pick against the spread: Cleveland +2

Confidence: Low

Denver Broncos (4-11) at Kansas City Chiefs (12-3)

The Broncos were blown out last week, losing by 37, which actually bodes well for their chances of covering the spread this week, as teams tend to bounce back after losses like that, covering the spread at the 59.1% rate the week following a loss by 35 points or more. It’s counterintuitive, but it makes sense when you consider that teams tend to be overlooked, undervalued, and embarrassed after blowout losses. That being said, I don’t think the Broncos are worth betting this week. They could easily be overlooked and embarrassed this week, but I’m not sure if they’re undervalued. They are 13-point underdogs in Kansas City, but the Chiefs have the significant edge in DVOA (+19.1% vs. -12.9%) and are significantly healthier in terms of SIC score (92.4 vs. 67.2), so my calculated line is right where this line is at Kansas City -13. The Broncos are still the better side for pick ‘em purposes, but they’re not bettable.

Kansas City Chiefs 33 Denver Broncos 21

Pick against the spread: Denver +13

Confidence: Low

Indianapolis Colts (4-10-1) at New York Giants (8-6-1)

The Giants haven’t blown any teams out this season, with their average margin of victory being 5.4 points and their biggest margin of victory being 8, but the Colts give the Giants one of their easiest chances at a blowout win this week. Not only are the Colts dead last in DVOA at -29.1%, but they are starting underwhelming veteran backup quarterback Nick Foles, with whom they struggled mightily in his first start last week. Because of all of their close victories, the Giants are not as good as their record, ranking 23rd in DVOA (-8.2%), but they should still be able to cover this 5.5-point spread. They aren’t bettable at that number, but they should be the right side for pick ‘em purposes.

New York Giants 24 Indianapolis Colts 16

Pick against the spread: NY Giants -5.5

Confidence: Low

Jacksonville Jaguars (7-8) at Houston Texans (2-12-1)

This game is technically meaningless for the Jaguars, as their playoff chances are entirely dependent on them beating the Titans next week, regardless of what happens in this game, but the Jaguars are still approaching this as a real game and will play all of their regular starters. The Texans have been slightly more competitive than their league worst record suggests, but they still rank 31st at -26.4% and this line is pretty small at Jacksonville -3, so the Jaguars (+2.0%) have a good chance to cover. We’re not getting quite enough line value with the Jaguars for them to be worth betting on the road, but they should be the right side for pick ‘em purposes.

Jacksonville Jaguars 25 Houston Texans 20

Pick against the spread: Jacksonville -3

Confidence: Low

Miami Dolphins (8-6) at New England Patriots (7-7)

The Dolphins are the better team in terms of DVOA (8.5% vs. 1.3%), but that’s not a huge margin and they’ll be without starting quarterback Tua Tagovailoa for this road game in New England. Backup quarterback Teddy Bridgewater is one of the best in the league and I’m still going to take the Dolphins for pick ‘em purposes, but they’re only underdogs of 2.5 points, so it’s hard to be confident in them at all. My calculated line still has the Patriots favored to win this game, at New England -1.5, so this is going to be a no confidence pick, with games rarely decided by 2 points or fewer.

New England Patriots 19 Miami Dolphins 17

Pick against the spread: Miami +2.5

Confidence: None

New Orleans Saints (6-9) at Philadelphia Eagles (13-2)

The Eagles have been one of the best teams in the league this season (2nd in DVOA at 28.3%) in large part due to being healthier than most of the league, but injuries have started to pile up in recent weeks, missing MVP candidate quarterback Jalen Hurts, stud right tackle Lane Johnson, and starting defensive backs Avonte Maddox and Chauncey Gardner-Johnson. However, the Eagles are starting from such a level in terms of overall talent that, even without those players, they should be able to cover a 5.5-point spread against the middling Saints (20th in DVOA at -5.7%). There isn’t enough here for the Eagles to be worth betting, but they should be the right side.

Philadelphia Eagles 24 New Orleans Saints 17

Pick against the spread: Philadelphia -5.5

Confidence: Low

New York Jets (7-8) at Seattle Seahawks (7-8)

The Jets have been a significantly better team when Mike White has been under center this season, which he will be this week, but this line seems to take that into account, favoring the Jets by 1.5 on the road, even though the Seahawks are the better team in terms of DVOA (4.4% vs. 2.1%). The Seahawks have not played as well in recent weeks, with quarterback Geno Smith falling back to earth a little bit, but they’ll get wide receiver Tyler Lockett back this week and there’s value with them as +105 on the money line, as they should be considered slight favorites to win this game at home.

Seattle Seahawks 23 New York Jets 21 Upset Pick +105

Pick against the spread: Seattle +1.5

Confidence: Low

San Francisco 49ers (11-4) at Las Vegas Raiders (6-9)

This line shot up to 5.5 from 9.5 when the Raiders benched veteran Derek Carr for inexperienced backup Jarrett Stidham, effectively tanking the season for better draft position and not risking Carr to injury, which would guarantee his massive salary for next season. Stidham has never made a start in four seasons in the league and has struggled mightily in limited action, so I don’t think this line is high enough, especially since the rest of the Raiders could lose motivation with the front office clearly writing off the season. The 49ers already had the significant edge in DVOA before Carr was benched (+27.0% vs. -11.0%) and 9 of their 11 wins have come by 13 points or more, which I expect to happen again this week. Even with this high spread, the 49ers are worth a big bet this week.

San Francisco 49ers 27 Las Vegas Raiders 13

Pick against the spread: San Francisco -9.5

Confidence: High

Los Angeles Rams (5-10) at Los Angeles Chargers (9-6)

This is essentially a neutral site game for these teams, which is nothing new for the Chargers, who don’t have many fans in Los Angeles and as a result have gone 18-27 ATS at home since moving in 2017, as opposed to 28-17 ATS on the road. The Chargers are getting healthier (79.1 SIC score) and the Rams are one of the most banged up teams in the league (69.3 SIC score), which gives the Chargers a 6-point edge in my roster rankings, even with these two teams about even in DVOA (Chargers at -5.8%, Rams at -8.1%). The Chargers shouldn’t get any homefield advantage, so we’re getting a little line value with the Rams at +6.5, but it’s not nearly enough for them to be worth betting.

Los Angeles Chargers 23 Los Angeles Rams 17

Pick against the spread: LA Rams +6.5

Confidence: None

Green Bay Packers (7-8) at Minnesota Vikings (12-3)

Given these two teams’ records, it might seem surprising that the Vikings are 3-point road underdogs, but, while the Vikings are 12-3, they’ve had to go 11-0 in one-score games and have just a +5 point differential, despite a +6 turnover margin, which is not predictive week-to-week. In terms of DVOA, the Vikings rank just 25th at -9.4%, behind the 7-8 Packers at 4.1%, so it’s not surprising the Packers are favored at home. If anything, we’re getting great line value only laying a field goal with the Packers, who have been a significantly better team at home this season (4-2 with a +8 point differential, as opposed to 3-6 and -29 on the road).

That has been the case for years, with the Packers going 49-22 ATS at home in games started and finished by Aaron Rodgers, whose QB rating is 10 points higher at home in his career, significantly above average. The Packers lost by 16 in Minnesota week 1, the Vikings’ only multiscore win of the season, but the Packers are at home now and that game would have been a lot closer if the Vikings hadn’t won the turnover battle by two. If we assume turnover neutral football, the Packers have a great chance to cover this spread and are my Pick of the Week this week.

Green Bay Packers 31 Minnesota Vikings 24

Pick against the spread: Green Bay -3

Confidence: Pick of the Week

Pittsburgh Steelers (7-8) at Baltimore Ravens (10-5)

The Ravens are the significantly better team in DVOA (+18.7 vs. -2.0%), but their offense is not nearly the same without injured quarterback Lamar Jackson. The Ravens have had injury problems for most of the season and right now they are actually healthier around the quarterback than they’ve been for most of the season, but the Steelers are one of the healthiest teams in the league (91.1 SIC score). The Ravens won in Pittsburgh a few weeks ago without Jackson, but they needed to win the turnover battle by 3, which is not predictive, to only win the game by two, with the Steelers having the significant edge in yards per play and first down rate. We’re only getting a couple points with the Steelers this week, but they should be the right side for pick ‘em purposes against the spread and they are a good value on the money line at +110.

Pittsburgh Steelers 17 Baltimore Ravens 16 Upset Pick +110

Pick against the spread: Pittsburgh +2

Confidence: Low

Buffalo Bills (12-3) at Cincinnati Bengals (11-4)

The Bills are 12-3 and one of the best teams in the league, but the 11-4 Bengals have almost been just as good in recent weeks, as they have gotten healthier, with the Bills trending in the wrong direction injury wise. In terms of weighted DVOA, the Bills only have a slight edge (+29.9% vs. +23.4%). We’re not getting great line value with the Bengals as only 1.5-point home underdogs, but they should be the right side for pick ‘em purposes, as the Bengals should be considered no worse than 50/50 to win this game outright. The money line is a decent value at +105.

Cincinnati Bengals 27 Buffalo Bills 26 Upset Pick +105

Pick against the spread: Cincinnati +1.5

Confidence: Low

Dallas Cowboys at Tennessee Titans: 2022 Week 17 NFL Pick

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Dallas Cowboys (11-4) at Tennessee Titans (7-8)

The Titans have collapsed in recent weeks, losing five straight after a 7-3 start. That’s not all that surprising though, as the Titans’ wins were never that impressive. None of the Titans’ wins came against teams that currently have a winning record and almost all came by slim margins of victory. Only two of the Titans’ wins have come by more than a touchdown and neither win was as impressive as that suggests, as they needed a defensive touchdown to push the margin to 9 against the Colts, while their 10-point win over the Packers came against a team in a terrible spot, playing on a short week after an overtime game, a spot in which teams are just 2-22 ATS all-time. Meanwhile, the Titans’ seven losses have come by a combined 89 points, leading to an underwhelming -43 point differential, and they rank just 24th in DVOA.

Making matters worse, the Titans have been among the most injury plagued teams in the league, missing several starters on both sides of the ball in recent weeks, and this week is the most short-handed they’ve been, as they are resting anyone who has any sort of injury in what is actually a meaningless game for the Titans, whose playoff chances are not affected at all by the outcome of this game, with a wild card spot out of reach and the division to be decided by the Titans’ matchup with the Jaguars next week.

In total, the Titans will be missing starting quarterback Ryan Tannehill, four starters on the offensive line, Taylor Lewan, Ben Jones, Nate Davis, and Nicholas Petit-Frere, feature back Derrick Henry, stud interior defender Jeffery Simmons, their top-3 edge defenders Denico Autry, Bud Dupree, and Harold Landry, starting linebackers Zach Cunningham and David Long, expected starting cornerbacks Caleb Farley and Kristian Fulton, and talented safety Amani Hooker, giving them a SIC score of 53.4 which will almost definitely be the lowest in the league this week. 

The relatively healthy Cowboys, on the other hand, are at 86.4 and enter this game 4th in DVOA, so this is a big mismatch. The oddsmakers have pushed this line all the time to favoring Dallas by 12.5 as a result of the Titans’ injuries though, so we’re not getting any line value with the Cowboys. However, I still am going to take the Cowboys for pick ‘em purposes because the Titans’ players who do play may be less motivated than they otherwise would be in a game that doesn’t matter and that the coaching staff is treating like it doesn’t matter, resting players who would otherwise play. There’s not nearly enough here for the Cowboys to be worth betting, but they should be the better side against the spread this week.

Dallas Cowboys 23 Tennessee Titans 10

Pick against the spread: Dallas -12.5

Confidence: None

Los Angeles Chargers at Indianapolis Colts: 2022 Week 16 NFL Pick

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Los Angeles Chargers (8-6) at Indianapolis Colts (4-9-1)

The Chargers have 8-6, but they haven’t played quite as well as that overall this season, as their eight wins have come by a combined 33 points (4.125 points per win), while their six losses have come by a combined 64 points (10.167 points per loss). As a result, they rank just 21st in point differential, which is more predictive than winning percentage, and 26th in schedule adjusted efficiency (-4.03), which is more predictive than point differential. Injuries have been the primary reason why they have been underwhelming this season though and they have gotten a lot healthier in recent weeks, which has had a noticeable effect on their performance.

Quarterback Justin Herbert has played significantly better since recovering from an early season rib injury that he played through and he’ll have his two talented wide receivers Keenan Allen and Mike Williams together for the third straight week this week, something he only had in 2 of his first 12 starts. The Chargers’ offensive line has also been better in recent weeks with center Corey Linsley back healthy, after he missed 3 games total earlier in the season, while their defense will get a big boost this week with stud safety Derwin James back from a 2-game absence. The Chargers are still missing expected top cornerback JC Jackson, stud edge defender Joey Bosa, and talented left tackle Rashawn Slater, which are significant absences, but they’re clearly in much better shape injury wise than they were earlier in the season.

This week, the Chargers play a Colts team whose primary issue this season has been the turnover margin, tied for a league worst -12 turnover margin. That’s not predictive week-to-week though and, somewhat counterintuitively, teams with bad turnover margins tend to cover against teams with good turnover margins, with teams covering at a 54.3% rate against a team that has a turnover margin 15+ points higher than theirs, because turnover margins don’t have nearly as much predictive value week-to-week as most people think.

With the Chargers at +3 in the turnover margin, that trend applies to this game and, in terms of schedule adjusted efficiency, which is much more predictive than turnover margins, the Colts haven’t been quite as bad as their record would suggest, ranking 25th at -3.96. However, the Colts benched starting quarterback Matt Ryan this week for backup Nick Foles, who will be their third quarterback of the season and who will almost definitely be a downgrade from Ryan, which will hurt their chances of covering this spread. 

This line is relatively high, favoring the Chargers on the road by 4.5 points, with 3 out of 10 games being decided by four points or fewer, but the Chargers tend to overperform expectations on the road because they don’t have any homefield advantage in Los Angeles anyway (18-27 ATS at home, 27-17 ATS on the road since moving in 2017) and the Chargers also are at an advantage as a Pacific Time Zone team in a night game against an Eastern Time Zone team, a spot in which teams cover at about a 60% rate historically. We’re not getting nearly enough value with the Chargers for them to be worth betting, but I would pick them for pick ‘em purposes, albeit for one of my lowest confidence picks of the week.

Los Angeles Chargers 25 Indianapolis Colts 20

Pick against the spread: LA Chargers -4.5

Confidence: None