Chicago Bears at Philadelphia Eagles: 2025 Week 13 NFL Pick

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Chicago Bears (8-3) at Philadelphia Eagles (8-3)

This is probably the most confusing line of the week. In other cases when my calculated line is very different from the actual line, I can understand why, but in this case I genuinely don’t understand it. The Eagles have just one win by more than a touchdown this season and it came against a 2-win Giants team. Despite that, the Eagles are favored by a touchdown in this game against the 8-3 Bears. 

The Bears are not as good as their record, going 6-1 in one-score games, but the same can be said of the Eagles. The Bears rank 24th in first down rate differential (-1.92%) and 20th in yards per play differential (-0.36), but the Eagles rank just 19th (-1.24%) and 16th (-0.20) respectively in those two metrics. The Eagles have had the harder schedule, but are only about a point better than the Bears in my schedule adjusted efficiency.

My roster rankings also only have these two teams about a point apart. The Eagles are better since getting Nolan Smith back from injury and since adding Jaelen Phillips via trade, but the Bears seem likely to get their top cornerbacks Jaylon Johnson and Kyler Gordon back from injury. Even if they don’t, the Bears are still worth a big bet at +7 since this figures to be yet another close game for two teams that have played a lot of close games.

Philadelphia Eagles 23 Chicago Bears 20

Pick against the spread: Chicago +7

Confidence: High

Cincinnati Bengals at Baltimore Ravens: 2025 Week 13 NFL Pick

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Cincinnati Bengals (3-8) at Baltimore Ravens (6-5)

The Bengals are getting Joe Burrow back from an extended absence in this game and there is a good chance he is the healthier of these two quarterbacks, as Lamar Jackson has played at far less than his usual level since returning from a hamstring injury four weeks ago. In addition to his hamstring injury, Jackson is apparently also dealing with knee and ankle injuries. His lack of health is most apparent in his rushing production, as he has averaged just 17.7 rushing yards per game over the past four weeks, down significantly from the 58.5 yards per start he averaged in his career prior to the last four weeks.

The Bengals have a lot of issues and, even with Burrow returning and Jackson playing at less than 100%, we aren’t getting a ton of line value with the Bengals, who I have calculated as 6.5-point underdogs, but Burrow has historically done great as significant underdogs, going 14-3 ATS as 3.5+ underdogs in his career, making him close to an auto-bet in this situation. That trend is even more significant than that suggests because, of those three ATS losses, two came in his rookie year and one came in a game in which he got hurt in the second quarter. Barring a reaggravation of his foot injury, he should be able to keep this game close and it’s very possible that his counterpart on the other side is more likely to leave this game early due to injury.

Baltimore Ravens 30 Cincinnati Bengals 27

Pick against the spread: Cincinnati +7

Confidence: High

Kansas City Chiefs at Dallas Cowboys: 2025 Week 13 NFL Pick

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Kansas City Chiefs (6-5) at Dallas Cowboys (5-5-1)

The Cowboys have been my Pick of the Week the past two weeks and I like them a lot again this week. The conventional thinking is that they have a great offense and a terrible defense and, in fact, they do rank 3rd in my schedule adjusted offensive efficiency and 31st in my schedule adjusted defensive efficiency. However, offensive efficiency is more predictive on a season long basis than defensive efficiency and, on top of that, the Cowboys’ defense has gotten a lot better in recent weeks.

Since their week 9 bye, the Cowboys have gotten safeties Malik Hooker and Donovan Wilson, cornerback Shavon Revel, and linebacker DeMarvion Overshown back from injury, while adding defensive tackle Quinnen Williams and linebacker Logan Wilson via trade. That’s legitimately six starters that they have now that they didn’t for most or all of the first half of the season and that makes their defense a lot better than it was, particularly the addition of Williams, who is one of the best players in the league at his position. The Cowboys also have great special teams and, overall, have a top-10 roster, which is not how they are being talked about, even after a blowout win in Las Vegas and an upset win over the Eagles.

The Cowboys’ schedule gets even harder this week with the Chiefs coming to town, but the Cowboys aren’t far behind the Chiefs in my roster rankings and could still keep this one close or even pull another upset, as 3.5-point home favorites, especially since the Chiefs are in a terrible spot, playing on Thursday after playing in an overtime game the previous week. Teams are just 7-25 ATS in this spot all-time, as it is very tough to play on a short turnaround after a long game. The Cowboys are my Pick of the Week again this week.

Dallas Cowboys 26 Kansas City Chiefs 24 Upset Pick +140

Pick against the spread: Dallas +3.5

Confidence: Pick of the Week

2025 Week 12 NFL Picks

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Pick of the Week

DAL 25 (+3.5) PHI 20 Upset Pick +145

High Confidence Picks

IND 26 (+3.5) KC 24 Upset Pick +155

SEA 26 (-11.5) TEN 10

Medium Confidence Picks

LAR 31 (-6.5) TB 22

NE 33 CIN 28 (+7.5)

Low Confidence Picks

JAX 24 ARZ 23 (+3)

LV 13 CLE 10 (+4)

BAL 28 (-13.5) NYJ 13

SF 31 CAR 24 (+7.5)

CHI 23 PIT 21 (+3)

DET 28 NYG 16 (+14)

No Confidence Picks

BUF 25 HOU 20 (+5.5)

GB 19 MIN 13 (+6.5)

NO 21 ATL 20 (+2.5)

Buffalo Bills at Houston Texans: 2025 Week 12 NFL Pick

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Buffalo Bills (7-3) at Houston Texans (5-5)

The Texans are 5-5, but most of their wins have been by multiple scores, while most of their losses have been by one-score, giving them a +57 point differential (9th in the NFL), a +1.43% first down rate differential (9th), and a +0.53 yards per play differential (8th). The Bills have two more wins than them, but aren’t much better in most of those metrics, ranking 8th in point differential (+63), 6th in first down rate differential (+3.07%), and 7th in yards per play differential (+0.68). However, the Texans are without starting quarterback CJ Stroud and stud defensive back Jalen Pitre for the third straight game. This line accurately reflects that though, favoring the Bills by 5.5 at home, which is my exact calculated line. If I have to pick a side, I would pick the Texans, but only for a no confidence pick.

Early Locked Bets: DAL +3.5, IND +3.5

Buffalo Bills 25 Houston Texans 20

Pick against the spread: Houston +5.5

Confidence: None

2025 Week 11 NFL Picks

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Pick of the Week

DAL 27 (-3) LV 20

High Confidence Picks

BUF 31 (-5.5) TB 23

LAC 23 (-3) JAX 17

Medium Confidence Picks

PIT 27 CIN 24 (+5.5)

NE 24 NYJ 15 (+13)

HOU 16 TEN 13 (+6)

BAL 22 CLE 17 (+7.5)

Low Confidence Picks

GB 23 NYG 17 (+7.5)

ATL 20 CAR 17 (+3.5)

MIN 26 CHI 24 (+3)

LAR 27 SEA 24 (+3.5)

SF 27 (-3) ARZ 23

KC 24 DEN 20 (+4.5)

No Confidence Picks

PHI 26 DET 24 (+2.5)

MIA 26 WAS 24 (+2.5)

On a personal note, a member of the NFL picks community, Gerry Shultz, has fallen on hard times and needs some support. Here is a link to his GoFundMe: https://www.gofundme.com/f/support-gerrys-parkinsons-and-lewy-body-dementia-care Any support is appreciated!

New York Jets at New England Patriots: 2025 Week 11 NFL Pick

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New York Jets (2-7) at New England Patriots (8-2)

There is a big discrepancy in these two teams’ records and this line, favoring the Patriots by 13, reflects that, but the Patriots have not been as good as their record suggests, while the Jets have not been as bad. In terms of first down rate differential and yards per play differential, which are more predictive than win/loss record, the Patriots rank 14th and 10th at +0.26% and +0.43 respectively. That’s despite having the easiest schedule in the league thus far. When strength of schedule and special teams are taken into account, the Patriots rank just 14th in overall efficiency and my roster rankings line up with that, as they rank 15th.

The Jets, meanwhile, have played a lot of close games, with only two losses by more than seven points, which is relevant considering this line is all the way up to 13. On top of that, the Jets have managed to keep most of their games close despite the fact that they have a league worst -10 turnover margin, in large part due to a league worst 21.05% fumble recovery rate, both of which are extremely volatile on a week-to-week basis. In terms of first down rate differential and yards per play differential, the Jets rank 22nd (-2.05%) and 24th (-0.50) respectively. When strength of schedule and special teams are taken into account, the Jets rank 23rd in overall efficiency. 

The Jets traded away Sauce Gardner and Quinnen Williams last week and now they are without top wide receiver Garrett Wilson due to injury, so my roster rankings have them ranked lower than the statistics do, as they rank 29th in my roster rankings, but we’re still getting significant line value with them at +13. This would be a bigger bet, but the Jets are not in a great spot, as teams are 12-23 ATS in their second game in five days after a bye, as long as their opponent is not in the same situation. Still, even with that trend taken into account, my calculated line is New England -9, so we’re getting enough line value with the Jets to bet on them at +13.

Early Locked Bets: BUF -5.5

On a personal note, a member of the NFL picks community, Gerry Shultz, has fallen on hard times and needs some support. Here is a link to his GoFundMe: https://www.gofundme.com/f/support-gerrys-parkinsons-and-lewy-body-dementia-care Any support is appreciated!

New England Patriots 24 New York Jets 15

Pick against the spread: NY Jets +13

Confidence: Medium

2025 Week 10 NFL Picks

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Pick of the Week

IND 31 (-6.5) ATL 17

High Confidence Picks

DET 23 WAS 20 (+8.5)

BUF 35 (-8.5) MIA 20

Medium Confidence Picks

LAC 21 (-2.5) PIT 17

CHI 26 NYG 24 (+4.5)

DEN 26 (-8.5) LV 13

GB 21 (PK) PHI 17

NYJ 16 (+2.5) CLE 13 Upset Pick +115

Low Confidence Picks

HOU 15 (+1.5) JAX 13 Upset Pick +105

BAL 28 (-3.5) MIN 23

LAR 33 (-4.5) SF 27

No Confidence Picks

SEA 31 (-6.5) ARZ 24

CAR 15 NO 10 (+5.5)

TB 30 (-2.5) NE 27

On a personal note, a member of the NFL picks community, Gerry Shultz, is having a hard time and needs some support. Here is a link to his GoFundMe: https://www.gofundme.com/f/support-gerrys-parkinsons-and-lewy-body-dementia-care Any support is appreciated!

Las Vegas Raiders at Denver Broncos: 2025 Week 10 NFL Pick

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Las Vegas Raiders (2-6) at Denver Broncos (7-2)

The Raiders lost last week when they went for two at the end of overtime against the Jaguars, instead of tying it up with an extra point. It was the right decision, despite the outcome, as it is much better for team morale to play for a win rather than for a tie. However, the Raiders actually should have gone for two on their last touchdown drive of the fourth quarter. Even if the result had been the same, that would have prevented them from having to play overtime at all, which is important because they had Thursday Night Football next on the schedule.

Now coming off of an overtime game, the Raiders are in a near impossible situation on a short week. Teams are just 6-25 ATS all-time on Thursday Night Football after an overtime game. As underdogs of a touchdown or more, teams are 1-7 ATS and 0-8 straight up, losing by an average of 16.4 points per game on an average line of +9.4. Making matters worse, this is the Raiders’ second game in five days following a bye, a spot in which teams are 11-23 ATS all-time, as long as their opponent is not in the same situation. This isn’t a big bet on the Broncos as 8.5-point home favorites because we aren’t getting any line value (my calculated line is Denver -7.5), but this spot is good enough to bet on that alone. I have a hard time seeing the Raiders keeping this one close, given the situation they are in.

Early Locked Bets: WAS +8.5, IND -6.5, NYG +4.5, LAC -2.5

On a personal note, a member of the NFL picks community, Gerry Shultz, is having a hard time and needs some support. Here is a link to his GoFundMe: https://www.gofundme.com/f/support-gerrys-parkinsons-and-lewy-body-dementia-care Any support is appreciated!

Denver Broncos 26 Las Vegas Raiders 13

Pick against the spread: Denver -8.5

Confidence: Medium

2025 Week 9 NFL Picks

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Pick of the Week

IND 31 (-3) PIT 24

High Confidence Picks

LAC 27 (-9.5) TEN 13

LAR 31 (-14) NO 13

Medium Confidence Picks

DET 28 MIN 23 (+8.5)

LV 17 (+3) JAX 16 Upset Pick +130

Low Confidence Picks

GB 24 CAR 13 (+13.5)

NYG 24 (+2.5) SF 23 Upset Pick +120

DEN 17 (+2) HOU 16 Upset Pick +110

KC 30 (-1.5) BUF 27

DAL 31 (-2.5) ARZ 27

CHI 24 CIN 23 (+3)

No Confidence Picks

NE 25 (-4.5) ATL 20

SEA 23 (-3) WAS 20

BAL 31 MIA 24 (+7.5)