I wouldn’t recommend drafting Mark Sanchez because he could easily lose his job to Tim Tebow midseason and I wouldn’t recommend picking up Tebow until he’s actually starting.
RB Shonn Greene (NY Jets)
7/1/12: Greene has he has been led to believe by the coaching staff that he will exceed the career high 253 carries he had last year. They don’t seem confident in backup Joe McKnight with LaDainian Tomlinson gone and they want to get back to running the football more. Greene isn’t very talented, but he’ll get you volume yardage as he could be one of the league leaders in carries if he stays healthy.
The Jets didn’t add another back until the 6th round this year, even though they lost LaDainian Tomlinson, who was their #2 back. Some take this as a sign that they believe in Greene’s ability to take the next step as a back, but I take it as more of a sign of confidence for Joe McKnight than anything. Remember, this team had a lot of interest in moving up for Trent Richardson, which would have made Greene the #2 back. Greene should have similar production to last year, maybe a little better if Tebow takes over as the starting quarterback and forces front 7s to focus on his ability to run the ball as well. Just ask Willis McGahee how valuable that is. Tebow would probably vulture some touchdowns though, but Mark Sanchez could too. He scored 6 times last year on the ground.
Projection: 270 carries 1220 rushing yards 8 total touchdowns 30 catches 220 receiving yards (192 pts standard/222 pts PPR)
RB Bilal Powell (NY Jets)
Bilal Powell looks like the favorite to be Shonn Greene’s primary handcuff. He’ll only see passing downs at first, but Greene is a pretty average runner who only has fantasy value on volume. It wouldn’t shock me if Powell impressed and started eating into his workload on a run heavy team. He’s an interesting handcuff for career and late round sleeper.
Projection: 90 carries 410 rushing yards 3 total touchdowns 22 catches 180 receiving yards (77 pts standard/99 pts PPR)
WR Santonio Holmes (NY Jets)
8/21/12: Holmes has missed a lot Training Camp and the Preseason with various injuries. The Jets’ passing offense isn’t going to be very good anyway so I’d like him be someone else’s problem.
Holmes will be limited by the Jets’ poor offense, but he should have a bounce back year after last year. Remember, this guy had 52 catches for 746 yards and 6 touchdowns in 12 games in 2010 with the Jets. He’s spent this offseason working out with Mark Sanchez so he’ll play better if Sanchez is the starter. And if Tebow is the starter, well he’ll have an upgrade at quarterback in that situation.
Projection: 50 catches 650 receiving yards 6 receiving touchdowns (101 pts standard/151 pts PPR)
WR Stephen Hill (NY Jets)
8/21/12: If I were to own a Jets wide receiver, it probably would be Hill. Holmes can’t seem to stay healthy and while Hill is incredibly raw, he’ll be targeted around the goal line an awful lot at 6-5, just like Plaxico Burress last season, who caught 8 touchdowns. Burress caught 45 passes for 612 yards and 8 touchdowns last year. Hill, even as a rookie, should be able to get those numbers, with upside if Holmes misses any time with injury and/or Tebow becomes the starter. If Tebow becomes the starter, Hill could very well be his top target because, with Tebow, it doesn’t matter so much if you aren’t a great route runner, as long as you are athletic (see Thomas, Demaryius).
The Jets most likely won’t be a very good passing offense no matter who the starter is and Stephen Hill is incredibly raw. However, if Tebow takes over, he could have the same chemistry throwing to Hill as he did throwing to a similar player in Demaryius Thomas last year. Hill will also be a red zone threat the way that Plaxico Burress was last year. Burress didn’t play well, but still managed to score 8 times. There’s some upside here late.
Projection: 42 catches 670 receiving yards 7 receiving touchdowns (109 pts standard/151 pts PPR)
TE Dustin Keller (NY Jets)
8/21/12: Dustin Keller had a breakout season last year, catching 65 passes for 815 yards and 5 touchdowns, leading a miserable receiving corps. I thought his production would go down this season because the receiving corps around him would be improved, but it doesn’t look like it. Keller should once again lead this miserable bunch in receiving. If you miss out on one of the top tight ends, Keller is a nice fall back option in the mid rounds.
Keller had a career high 65 catches for 815 yards and 5 touchdowns last year, but with Holmes bouncing back and Stephen Hill coming in, I expect those numbers to dip, especially if Tebow, who rarely threw to tight ends, takes over as the starter at some point.
Projection: 60 catches 760 receiving yards 5 receiving touchdowns (106 pts standard/166 pts PPR)