My record: 

Last week: 3-1

 

Overall picks (2009): 171-91 (.653)

Lock picks (2009): 13-4

Upset picks (2009): 20-29

Arizona at New Orleans 34-27 upset pick

The Saints haven’t scored more than 20 points since December 13^th. They haven’t won a game by more than a field goal since November 30^th. Drew Brees hasn’t played in 3 weeks, because of a rest week and then a bye. Kurt Warner is an experienced playoff quarterback who threw more touchdowns than incompletions last week against a good Green Bay pass defense and is one year removed from a Super Bowl appearance. The playoff are completely different than the regular season mentally. Brees is 1-2 in 3 career playoffs games so he can’t afford to be rusty coming into this game and right now he is the definition of rusty. I can’t imagine him having a great game, so he’ll have to rely on his running game more in this game and they have been struggling lately and the Cardinals actually have a good run defense. They also have a good pass rush and the Saints are weak against good pass rushes. This game is at home, but the Saints recent struggles have been both on the road and at home. In this game, I feel it will be the Saints who will struggle to score enough points to win as the Cardinals will make their 2^nd straight NFC Championship in a blowout.

Baltimore at Indianapolis 20-23

The Colts are also going to be rusty and also a bit discouraged after their coach ruined their chance at 19-0 by benching the whole team. The Colts always seem to rest late in the season and you might say, well, it’s worked for them before. Actually it hasn’t. The one year they won the Super Bowl Peyton Manning played the whole game week 17 and they did not have a bye week in the playoffs. He will also be throwing against a 3-4 defense which he has struggled against in the playoffs. However, despite the number they put up on the scoreboard against the Patriots last week, the Ravens are not moving the ball well offensively, especially through the air. Flacco had 4 completions for 34 yards last week. I don’t know if anyone has ever done less to win a playoff game before. That’s worse than Trent Dilfer and Brad Johnson combined. The only reason they won last week is that Tom Brady had 4 turnovers in his own territory. As long as Peyton Manning doesn’t do that, which is unlikely, the Ravens aren’t going to have much of a shot to score enough to win this game against Peyton Manning, no matter how rusty he may be. Unlike Brees, Manning is an experienced playoff vet so the rustiness shouldn’t effect him as much.

Dallas at Minnesota 24-27

Brett Favre, unlike Peyton Manning and Drew Brees, should not be effected negatively by the bye week because he actually closed the season strong. He actually had two of his best games of his season in the last two weeks of the season. I think, if anything, the bye week is going to be a much needed rest for his 40-year-old. I expect him to be close to early season form once again with could be very deadly. The Vikings had a lot to work on during the bye week and how they dealt with their weaknesses and compensated will be very clear on the scoreboard this week. I give them the benefit of the doubt with Brett Favre at quarterback, but if their offensive line struggles once again, the Cowboys could capitalize on that and pressure Favre into a bad game. In the end, I expect Favre to come up with a clutch performance and do what he was supposed to do when they brought him in, win playoff games. I am still waiting for Tony Romo to choke late. I think this could be the game when that happens.

NY Jets at San Diego 17-31

The Jets are at a clear disadvantage because they have to travel across three time zones, and also because they have a rookie quarterback. If the Chargers put up points early, which they could do and for some reason the Bengals can not, they could force the Jets away from a run heavy offense and if Mark Sanchez has to throw too much, this game isn’t going to be close. I expect the Chargers to come out throwing in the warm California sun and force the Jets to do the same, which is going to force turnovers. This will negate the Chargers weakness running the football. The Chargers will only have to use their running game in short situations, which is what they did late in the season en route to winning 11 straight games. This one, out of all the matchups this week, is most likely to be a blowout.

1/14/10

 

 

 

My record: 

Last week: 11-5

 

Overall picks (2009): 166-90 (.648)

Overall picks (2008): 153-102-1 (.600)

Lock picks (2009): 13-4

Lock picks (2008): 14-3

Upset picks (2009): 19-29

Upset picks (2008): 21-27

NY Jets at Cincinnati 24-12 upset pick

Though the score might not lead you to believe so, the Bengals actually played most of their starters, with the exception of Cedric Benson, in the first half against the Jets last week. Despite that, they still trailed 27-0 at halftime and had 0 net passing yards and no first downs. Having Cedric Benson back will help them on the ground, but you have to wonder if the Jets are just a team that the Bengals don’t matchup well with. Darrelle Revis is the best shutdown corner in the league and he completely frustrated Chad Ochocinco all night, to the point where he had 0 catches on 4 targets. The Bengals don’t really have another good consistent option through the air other than him. This season, Ochocinco’s 1047 receiving yards were more than double that of Laveranues Coles, 514, who was second on the team in receiving. The Jets were able to destroy the Bengals on the ground last week with 257 yards, though the Bengals did have a banged up defensive line. The Bengals won’t be as hurt on the defensive line this week, but if they let the Jets rush 57 times again, they are going to give up a big game on the ground. The Jets have so many options on the ground and the Bengals defensive line will just get worn down. If the Bengals can’t get anything going offensively earlier, which would not surprise me, the Jets are going to take this one and run with it and run with it and run with it, and that will force the Bengals to pass more and have a lot more three and outs and then the Jets will run with it and run with it and run with it some more. If the Bengals establish their offense early, the Jets won’t be able to do that and they’ll have to rely more on Mark Sanchez, who is a rookie. However, based on what we saw last week, the former is more likely to happen. I can’t see Carson Palmer having a good game here, especially since he’s also as inexperienced as Mark Sanchez. Neither quarterback have won a playoff game and in Palmer’s only career playoff appearance, he was knocked out earlier with a knee injury.

Philadelphia at Dallas 19-27

Unlike the Jets and Bengals, the Cowboys and Eagles played a full strength vs. full strength game for the entire 60 minutes last week, so we can learn a lot more about what we saw last week and apply it to this week. Last week was not close. The Eagles did not score a point. As strange as this may seem, without center Jamaal Jackson, the Eagles offense looked in shambles. McNabb looked out of sync taking snaps from someone other than Jackson for the first time in a really long time and the offensive line could not block right without their leader in the middle. The tenacious Cowboys pass rush got 4 sacks on McNabb and 5 more quarterback hits. The Eagles also could not do anything on the ground with the Cowboys in the backfield on almost every play. The Eagles averaged 3.7 YPC on the ground and really just gave up on it early and only rushed 10 times in the game. That’s not a recipe for success and if the Cowboys penetration can force the Eagles to give up on the run again, it will be things extremely easy for a Cowboys defensive squad that has two straight shutouts going into this game. An interesting statistic that definitely works in the Cowboys favor: teams that have beaten an opponent twice in the regular season, which the Cowboys have done to the Eagles this year, are 12-7 against that same opponent in the postseason. The Cowboys have the Eagles’ number and though the Cowboys have a lot of things against them, they haven’t won a playoff game in 15 years, Tony Romo always seems to mess things up this late in the season, I think they have a very good shot of winning year, especially since Romo really seems to have gotten things together late in the season here.

 

Baltimore at New England 20-24

This is another rematch, but not a rematch of a week 17 game, but rather a week 4 game. A lot has happened since then. At the time, the Ravens had been 3-0 and just suffered their first loss in heartbreaking fashion to the Patriots. Since then, the Ravens have fallen to 9-7 and have lost almost every loss in heartbreaking fashion to the point where you just have to wonder if they are purposely making stupid decisions. The Patriots, at the time, were 2-1 and Brady’s knee was not as strong as it is now. However, Brady didn’t have 3 broken ribs and a possibly broken ring finger on his throwing hand at the time either, which he has now. And Wes Welker wasn’t hurt. However, Brady, despite his injuries, and the injuries of those around him, is playing well, especially against teams that don’t create a lot of pressure on the quarterback. With a mediocre 32 sacks this season, the Ravens count as one of those teams. Those 32 sacks are tied for 11^th fewest in the NFL. Some things remain the same. This game is also at home for the Pats, as was their last matchup. The Pats may be 2-6 on the road, but they haven’t lost in Foxboro this season. Everything adds up for the Pats to win here, even if its close. The Pats have already beaten the Ravens this season. The Pats are playing well lately, 3-1 in their last 4, as is Brady, despite injuries. Brady always steps it up in January, as does the entire Patriots team. I’ll take the home team in a close one.

Green Bay at Arizona 27-31

This is also a rematch of week 17, but unlike other matchups, this one was a full strength Packers team going against a Matt Leinart led Cardinals backup squad. Not only can you not blame the Cardinals for getting killed last week against the Packers, with Leinart leading the charge, it actually helps the Cardinals to have rested their starters last week. The Cardinals starters were able to watch what the Packers had last week and now know what’s coming. The Packers, don’t have that luxury because the Cardinals didn’t show them what they had. I know the Cardinals didn’t see firsthand on the field what the Packers have, but watching them from the sidelines is a small advantage over just watching them on tape. That small advantage could be the difference here. I also like Kurt Warner more than Aaron Rodgers in this game. This is Rodgers’ first playoff game and Warner has been to 3 Super Bowls. Advantage: Warner. The Cardinals are also at home and those three small advantages should be what pushes the Cardinals to a small victory over a team who, in terms of strengths and weaknesses, is very similar to themselves.

 

 

My record:

Last week: 9-7

Overall picks: 155-85 (.646)

Lock picks: 12-4

Upset picks: 16-26

Indianapolis at Buffalo 14-13 upset pick

Peyton Manning isn’t likely to play more than a drive or two because the perfect season is gone, but, Curtis Painter isn’t actually much worse than Ryan Fitzpatrick or Brian Brohm or whoever the Bills start at quarterback, plus, Manning could make the score 7-0 or 14-0 after those two drives he’s in for. Donald Brown is the Colts backup running back and he could see a lot of action after Joseph Addai gets rest and against a very poor Bills run defense so this could be his real breakout game. Brown is a 2009 1^st round pick who has yet to get things going on the ground. Even a backup led Colts team should be able to get the win over the Bills, led by Peyton Manning on a drive or two, plus a strong running game, taking the pressure off of Curtis Painter after Manning leaves.

Jacksonville at Cleveland 14-17

Jacksonville looked extremely demotivated after that loss to the Colts and they showed it by getting destroyed by the Patriots last week. This pass defense is pathetic and that has a lot to do with how pathetic this defensive line and pass rush is. Tom Brady had more than enough time to do great things against them last week. Derek Anderson is known for throwing to ball to the other team, but if he gets enough time, I think he could even have a good game. We might actually see some of his 2007 self in this game against a completely demotivated Jags team that is probably overlooking the 4-11 Browns. The Jags do their worst on the road and against inferior teams. In this game, they have to deal with both.

Philadelphia at Dallas 37-33 upset pick

Dallas is on a roll right now and can win the division here with a win. Many people are saying that the release of Terrell Owens took the pressure off of Tony Romo and that’s why he’s having a better December. I don’t understand that one bit. How could the absence of Owens make Romo better in one month, but not in another. Romo is playing better in December because he’s gotten things right between the ears. However, he still faces an extremely tough matchup here against an Eagles team that always dominates in December and is currently on a 6 game winning streak. Dallas beat Philadelphia earlier this season, but that was a long time ago. This is a different Philadelphia team that is clicking on all cylinders. They might have more weapons on both sides of the field than any Philadelphia Eagles team this decade. I think Dallas falls in a close one.

Chicago at Detroit 27-21

Detroit seems to have thrown in the towel for the season after Matt Stafford got hurt. They are not playing very well at all right now, especially defensively. Chicago is playing frustratingly well, and by frustrating, I mean for their fans. Where was this earlier this season? Jay Cutler looks like the Pro Bowler he was last year and he should be able to tear apart the same Detroit secondary that Brady Quinn threw 4 touchdowns against earlier this season. Chicago’s defense hasn’t been playing great all season, but even against the Bears weak defense, I don’t see Drew Stanton or Daunte Culpepper having a good enough game to win this shootout.

Atlanta at Tampa Bay 28-20 upset pick

Josh Freeman has two straight good games, which means he’s probably due for a bad one, even against a weak Atlanta defense. I trust Matt Ryan at quarterback a lot more here, plus the Falcons are playing for more. They can’t make the playoffs, but they are going for back-to-back winning seasons for the first time in franchise history and Mike Smith has shown that he’s even willing to risk major injury to his stars to obtain that. This will be a close game, but I’ll give it to the more talented and motivated team, the Atlanta Falcons.

New Orleans at Carolina 13-27

New Orleans has all of a sudden lost 2 straight after winning their first 13 and barely were able to beat the Panthers in New Orleans earlier this season. This is not that same Panthers team. This is a Panthers team that has been playing with a lot of energy ever since they put Matt Moore in at quarterback for an injured Jake Delhomme. Now Matt Moore goes into this week without his best and favorite receiver, Steve Smith, who broke his arm on a touchdown reception last week against the Giants, as the Panthers look to continue their 2 game winning streak. However, the Saints are going to be going for it in this game to get themselves right going into the playoffs and they didn’t exactly look bad against the Bucs in a loss last week. The Panthers have been better against the run of late, but if the Saints can establish the run early this week, their greatest show on turf offense will benefit and have a huge game. I don’t think Moore is going to have enough playmakers down field with Smith out to win this game.

1/1/10: Mark Brunell will start for the Saints this week instead of Drew Brees because the Saints want to preserve Brees for the playoffs with the #1 seed already locked up. The scales all of a sudden just got tipped in Carolina’s favor.

New England at Houston 31-27 upset pick

New England has been a notoriously bad road team this year, with 2 road wins, one of which was technically on a neutral surface in England against the Bucs. However, Tom Brady looked really good last week against the Jaguars and its not like the Texans have had a shutdown secondary this year either. The Texans are in the bottom half of the league in sacks so Brady should have time to find his guys downfield. I also think Bill Belicheck will be able to outcoach Gary Kubiak should this be a close game, which it could be.

San Francisco at St. Louis 24-7 lock pick

The Niners defense gets Keith Null and the Rams this week which automatically gives them a good shot to win this game. The Niners blew out the Rams earlier this year in San Fran, but this is a completely different Niners team since Alex Smith took over as starter and Michael Crabtree signed. The Rams are pretty much exactly the same, if not worse, because of the loss of safety OJ Atogwe, which means they don’t have much of a shot here, especially if Steven Jackson sits again.

 

Pittsburgh at Miami 27-21

Miami proved themselves to be a feisty resilient team last week in a loss to the Texans, but they also proved themselves not to be very talented either. Ricky Williams is proving late in the season, since Ronnie Brown’s injury, that he is not capable of handling the load, which is understandable because of his age. Their rookie corners are cracking under pressure week in and week out and giving up big plays and the Steelers boast three big time wideouts and a fantastic quarterback throwing to them. The Steelers need this win to make the playoffs and I think they win it here on the strength of their passing game.

NY Giants at Minnesota 31-28 upset pick

The Giants aren’t playing well right now, but then again neither are the Vikings. I think the Giants matchup well here with their quick athletic defensive line against a big, slow Minnesota offensive front and that should both limit Adrian Peterson’s yards and pressure Brett Favre. The Giants are talented, but extremely inconsistent and that’s why they have been eliminated from the playoffs. I think they get their act together to win a close one here.

Cincinnati at NY Jets 12-17

The Bengals might rest starters a little if New England loses, but if New England wins they’ll be trapped in that #4 seed and then they could rest guys like Cedric Benson and possibly Carson Palmer. Even if they don’t, the Jets should be able to contain the Bengals offensively. The Bengals don’t score a lot of points and they don’t have a lot of good receivers outside of Chad Ochocinco so with Darrelle Revis covering him, Palmer is going to pretty much have to play 10 on 10 football and that’s really going to limit what he can do. I think the Jets grind out and win a close one.

Green Bay at Arizona 34-27 upset pick

Arizona is playing for the #2 seed, but I think Green Bay is really one of the more complete teams in the league and they have a great chance to display that against the Cardinals here. Kurt Warner is going to be very frustrated with this Green Bay secondary and Aaron Rodgers, pretty much the only thing that can stop him is a good pass rush, but the Packers have been blocking better anyway lately and the Cards don’t have much of a pass rush. The Packers match up very well here in this matchup of pass heavy teams and they should be able to beat the Cardinals and their secondary deep in a close shoot out.

Washington at San Diego 9-37

Washington has laid back-to-back stink bombs at home against their two closest rivals with their new GM Bruce Allen watching closely. Jason Campbell literally played the two worst games of his career at a time when he’s really playing for a starting job in the league next year as he’s a free agent. I really don’t think the Redskins have enough to travel across the country and beat a Chargers team that has won ten in a row, in fact, I think they get smashed again.

Tennessee at Seattle 27-13

Matt Hasselbeck doesn’t get any break from the pressure this week either which means it could be another awful game for him. He has back-to-back awful games for the Seahawks over the past two weeks and doesn’t really seem like he’s going to let up anytime soon. The Titans have an excellent rotation of fresh and talented defensive linemen and that is really going to frustrate this Seattle offensive line and that is going to frustrate Hasselbeck into more picks.

Baltimore at Oakland 24-21

Baltimore should be on upset alert here. Why? Oakland is coming off of an awful game and playing a team at home from the East Coast who is looking for a playoff berth. Those are the type of games they win. Plus, Baltimore hasn’t exactly had good luck this season as they are losing a ton of close games and they are one of the most penalized teams in the league in almost every category. However, though they should be on alert for an upset, I’m going to predict what’s most likely to happen, the Ravens win. I can’t pick Charlie Frye and the Raiders against the Ravens without laughing

Kansas City at Denver 21-31

Kansas City is another team looking to play spoiler, but this Chiefs team was spoiled a long time ago. They have been playing awful football, especially on the defensive side of the ball, for weeks now and I don’t see them letting up. The Broncos are a very good home team that matches up very well with the Chiefs, who are a similar but inferior team to the Broncos. The Broncos have already destroyed the Chiefs once this season and that was in Kansas City.

-12/30/09

 

 

 

My record:

Last week: 9-7

Overall picks: 146-78 (.652)

Lock picks: 11-4

Upset picks: 15-24

San Diego at Tennessee 38-21 upset pick

Cortland Finnegan is one of the best shutdown corners in the league, but the rest of the Titans secondary has been so bad, that it has rendered Finnegan’s shutdown abilities useless because the quarterback can simply go to his 2^ndoption. The Chargers are plenty of option, including Antonio Gates, Malcom Floyd, and LaDainian Tomlinson through the air. The Chargers have a huge height advantage over the Titans short secondary with 6-5 Floyd and 6-4 Gates and even Finnegan might not be able to contain San Diego’s #1 option Vincent Jackson who has a 7 inches height advantage over the 5-10 Finnegan. Phillip Rivers has a great arm, not to mention a height advantage at 6-5 to get the ball to his big receivers and should be able to move the ball at will against the Titans secondary vertically, especially near the goal line. That will set up a lot of short runs for the Chargers running game, which they are great at doing and with LT’s goal line prowess and the Chargers’ height advantage the Chargers should be able to score a touchdown every time they get it into the red zone. Vince Young won’t be able to keep up with that, even with Chris Johnson, who showed signs of tiring last week, on his side. Oh, and those words that say upset pick next to the score, those aren’t a typo. The Titans are actually favorited for some reason against a team that hasn’t lost since week 6. I literally had to check multiple sources when I first saw that to see if it was true. I felt like I was getting away with robbery by getting to write upset pick next to this one.

Buffalo at Atlanta 14-27

The Falcons have been mathematically eliminated, but are still likely to force Michael Turner and Matt Ryan into the game even though Jason Snelling and Chris Redman did a good job in replacement of them. Redman actually played better than a banged up Matt Ryan did last week against the Jets, but the Bills don’t have as good of a pass defense as the Jets and Ryan should be better after another week. Whoever runs the ball for the Falcons should be able to run straight up the middle with ease on the Bills because, well, everyone does. The Bills run defense is dead last in most major categories. Its safe to say that the Falcons will be able to move the ball on the Falcons and the Bills are starting Brian Brohm, a 2^nd year quarterback signed recently who likely doesn’t know the offense and is playing on the road so its hard to pick him to keep up with the Falcons offense.

Kansas City at Cincinnati 13-35 lock pick

Jerome Harrison just utterly destroyed the Chiefs on the ground so I have good faith that the Bengals ground combination of Cedric Benson and a motivated Larry Johnson facing his old team to get a huge game on the ground. That will take pressure off of Palmer, who should be able to make all the throws when necessary against the Chiefs secondary. Normally the Bengals struggle against bad teams, but the Chiefs are about as bad as it gets recently.

Oakland at Cleveland 16-9 upset pick

When I decide my picks, I look at a few things. How well the respective teams will do through the air against the other team, and how well they will do on the ground, and how this will effect each offense as a whole. Then I look and how each offense as a whole will effect the other teams offense as a whole and then factor in momentum, psychological advantages, homefield advantage, and when I was doing that for this matchup, I got stumped. Both teams are expected to start gun slinging quarterbacks who throw tons of picks, but the opposing defenses rank in the bottom 2 in interceptions. It should be cold which would mean the two teams are going to grind it out, but neither quarterback likes that and will throw too many picks for that to be possible, unless no one catches their interceptions. The Browns apparently have the edge on the ground though, but they are inconsistent on the ground, as are the Raiders. I eventually just decided to give this one to the Raiders because they have Nmandi Ashmouga who Derek Anderson would be stupid enough to throw on, which no one does, and that will lead to him losing the interception battle and this ugly game.

Seattle at Green Bay 7-37

If Josh Freeman can destroy the Seahawks secondary, imagine what Aaron Rodgers will do. The Seahawks get no pressure on the opposing quarterback which will allow Rodgers time to find all of his deep threats for big chunks of yards. The one weakness the Packers have is giving up sacks, which they have been getting better at avoiding lately since they added two starting offense tackles, Chad Clifton back from injury, Mark Tauscher back from retirement/free agency. The Seahawks aren’t going to be able to exploit that this week and that will make this battle of former Favre backups a bloodbath in favor of Green Bay.

Baltimore at Pittsburgh 24-28 game of the week

Joe Flacco is 0-3 in his career against Ben Roethlisberger. Don’t underestimate that psychological advantage. The Ravens needed overtime to beat the Steelers when Big Ben was hurt and 2^nd year player Dennis Dixon was starting. If the Ravens play that way again, Big Ben won’t need overtime to deliver the hurt and the win, especially if he plays like he did last week. The Steelers defense isn’t what it used to be, but then again neither is the Ravens’ D. I find it hard to believe that Big Ben won’t play better than Dennis Dixon and win this must win game against 2^nd year quarterback Joe Flacco, who needs this game as well, hasn’t beaten Big Ben in his career, and will be playing in front of a crazy crowd in Pittsburgh in the cold. I don’t think Flacco is mentally tough enough to do it.

Houston at Miami 24-27

Houston is one of the least mentally tough teams I’ve ever seen. They constantly blow the game in the clutch and didn’t care enough to beat a Rams team, that they should have blown out, by more than 1 score. They are much better on paper than on turf. Miami is the complete opposite thanks to the changes the Bill Parcells regime has brought in. The Dolphins want to win this game more than the Texans do by a lot and when you get down to it, it really is a matchup of NFL players against NFL players. All of these players are amazingly talented and even if the Texans have the bigger name players, the Dolphins will be the better team here at home in a must win.

Jacksonville at New England 17-33

One of two things will happen to the Jaguars this week. They will either be completely dejected and play like crap or feed off the fact that no one believes in them. They’ve done a lot of the latter this season, but the former makes a lot of sense. They played their best game of the season last week and lost. Any team, especially a poorly coached one like the Jaguars, is going to not want to give it their all this week after a loss like that, even with the playoffs on the line. The Pats also haven’t lost in Foxboro this season and the Jags aren’t a particularly good road team either. They have had major trouble stopping the pass this year, due to their lack of pass rush. Tom Brady might be hurting, but if he isn’t getting hit around and he has time to find Randy Moss down field because his offensive line is dominating the Jags’ defensive line, he could have a huge bounce back game in a win.

 

Tampa Bay at New Orleans 10-26

The reason the Saints lost last week, oddly enough, was because they couldn’t run. This team, like any team, needs to establish the run to establish the pass and they couldn’t do that. They should have no trouble running or passing at home against the lowly Bucs this week. This one isn’t going to be close, even with the Bucs coming off of a win. I don’t trust Josh Freeman to not be inconsistent and not throw a ton of picks against this opportunistic Saints defense, giving the ball right back to the offensive machine that is the Saints’ offense.

Carolina at NY Giants 20-34

Matt Moore is able to get the ball deep to Steve Smith, unlike Jake Delhomme, and since the Giants really struggle with the deep ball, I expect the Panthers to have a good game through the air. However, they don’t have a ton of options through the air other than Steve Smith and if the Giants double team him, they can slow down the Panthers a bit. The Giants also stuff the run pretty well, especially lately, so DeAngelo Williams, who is hurt, and Jonathan Stewart won’t be nearly as a effective as they’ll need to be for the Panthers to keep up with the Giants offense, who are in a perfect situation here. The Panthers are perfect for them to beat offensively, because the Panthers can’t stop the run and the Giants offense feeds off of setting up short 2^nd and 3^rd downs for Eli with the run, rendering the Panthers shutdown secondary more useless and helpless than normal. Expect another huge offensive output at home in the cold by the Giants who are hot right now after destroying the Redskins in every sense of the word last week on Monday Night. The Panthers and their limited offensive weapons won’t be able to keep up.

Denver at Philadelphia 9-27

Donovan McNabb and this Andy Reid pass heavy offense should be able to continually put the pressure on the Broncos aging secondary, who are likely more tired than normal at this point in the season, as shown by the fact that they couldn’t stop the Raiders passing game last week, and now they have to play through more cold weather. Brian Dawkins might also have some qualms about playing his old team in front of his old fans this week. Dawkins does not seem like a vengeful guy who is going to thrive on the fact that he’s playing his old team. The Broncos have struggled pretty badly on the East Coast this season with bad losses to the Ravens and the Redskins. The Eagles are a dangerous team at this point in December and the Broncos aren’t going to be able to beat them.

St. Louis at Arizona 10-24

Back-to-back cakewalk games for the Cardinals who have wrapped up their division and a playoff spot. Though they actually almost lost to the Lions, I expect that to be a fluke and for the weapon heavy Cardinals to bounce back and have a great game at home in a warm dome against an awful Rams defense, even if Matt Leinart plays a few drives for an aged Kurt Warner.

Detroit at San Francisco 13-24

Both teams have been eliminated from the playoffs, but the Niners are more likely to give it their all this week against the Lions because they have a tough coach in Mike Singletary. Alex Smith is also playing for his longterm job and should be a fairly easy matchup against the Lions. Unless Frank Gore delivers another one of his random clunker games, Alex Smith should not have to do a ton with the ball and that will mean low turnovers and high completion percentage for him against what is arguably the worst secondary in the league.

NY Jets at Indianapolis 14-23

The Colts have clinched home field through the playoffs and the Jets are still in the playoff race, though some comments from Rex Ryan, who said that they are eliminated, may suggest that they don’t believe so which is hilarious. I’m interested to see two things here, whether Darrelle Revis can shutdown Reggie Wayne, and how much Colts’ starters play. I’m going to guess that Revis can since he’s shutdown everyone else he’s faced and I’m going to guess that most starters play the whole game, except Pierre Garcon who is hurt. With Wayne and Garcon out of the equation for the most part for Manning his options are limited, especially since the Jets also do a very good job of shutting down opposing tight ends like Dallas Clark. Even Tony Gonzalez had a bad game last week against the Jets. However, Peyton Manning doesn’t care who he’s throwing to. Its not like Pierre Garcon was a household name before this season. He has Hank Baskett and Austin Collie who are decent and while this game might be closer than you think, I trust that Peyton Manning, a tremendous competitor, will both want to be left in the whole game to try for 15-0 and will be able to get the job done in the 2^nd half of a close game. I certainly trust him a lot more than Mark Sanchez, who has to face an Indianapolis secondary that is pretty shutdown in their own right.

Dallas at Washington 21-24 upset pick

Remember last season when the Cowboys beat the Giants week 15 and everyone said that the monkey was off their back. Then they lost 2 straight and missed the playoffs. Does that sound eerily like what could happen this year after the Cowboys beat the previously undefeated Saints? The Redskins have talent, they are just inconsistent, can’t close games, and occasionally lay major stink bombs in front of their new GM on national TV. The Redskins always play their hardest against the Cowboys and love to play underdog playoff bubble buster late in the season. Remember, the Redskins almost beat the Cowboys in Dallas a few weeks ago. Now the Redskins play at home, embarrassed after their loss last week, and ready to send a message by beating the Cowboys.

Minnesota at Chicago 17-13

I don’t think Brett Favre will have a good game in the cold. I don’t think Jay Cutler or the entire Bears team will either though. The Vikings have other weapons, tons of them, and quite easily could win this game with Tarvaris Jackson, though Favre wouldn’t let him play. As long as Favre doesn’t turn into the colorblind old guy with the creaky arm he was last December in the cold in New York, the Vikings should be fine on the strength of their defense and Adrian Peterson running all over the Bears once again, something he loves to do and has done many times in his career.

-12/23/09

 

 

 

My record:

Last week: 10-6

Overall picks: 137-71 (.659)

Lock picks: 10-4

Upset picks: 14-22

Indianapolis at Jacksonville 20-24 upset pick

Jacksonville does their best when they are the underdog, they are at home, and they are coming off of a loss. The Jags nearly beat the Colts week 1, losing by only two, and have gotten better since, opening up with the pass more. I don’t think the Colts will be able to pull out another one in the clutch and win here. I’m picking the Jags.

Dallas at New Orleans 21-34

Drew Brees and the Saints are unstoppable anywhere, but at home they are insane. That crowd literally comes alive, its like the building moves opposing players have said. I can’t imagine Tony Romo going in their, beating an undefeated team, in a must win game in December. The Cowboys also could be without their top pass pusher and struggle to put any pressure on Drew Brees, who is protected by a good offensive line. Brees and his many weapons should be able to beat the Cowboys deep and the Cowboys have been very susceptible to the deep ball this season.

New England at Buffalo 21-12

The Bills will be playing all out here to beat a team they haven’t beaten in a while and almost beat week one, but New England plays better than the Bills do in the cold so the Bills home field advantage here is going to be pretty useless. I think the Panthers calling Randy Moss out motivated him to show the world he’s still an elite receiver and if Brady, Moss and Welker all get it going in a rhythm, I don’t see how the Bills could stop them.

Arizona at Detroit 37-10

Detroit looked awful last week against Baltimore and now in comes Arizona, who is lead by Kurt Warner who plays his best after bad games, which he had last week against the 49ers. If the Cardinals run up a big lead early with Kurt Warner and Beanie Wells, the Lions might just give up like they did last week.

Miami at Tennessee 24-27

I don’t see how Miami is going to be able to contain Chris Johnson, though I don’t see how anyone can contain Chris Johnson anymore. Miami is also weak against the pass starting two rookie corners so if Vince Young plays, he and Kenny Britt could both have big games in route to a close victory over a Miami team that refuses to go away.

Cleveland at Kansas City 9-23

Cleveland is coming off of a huge win so I don’t think they will try as hard this week and thus play awfully against a bad Chiefs team. Larry Charles should be able to run all over them as the Browns slowly release their two wins were flukes and get destroyed this week on the road by a bad team.

Houston at St. Louis 38-6 lock pick

The Texans have figured out that the best way to avoid losing games and blowing leads is to run up the score early against really, really bad teams. They should be able to do that this week against a Rams team that I am convinced is tanking, by playing Keith Null, to get the 1^st pick.

 

Atlanta at NY Jets 24-21 upset pick

Both have quarterbacks in doubt for this game, but the Jets are in a position to make the playoffs now which of course means they will blow it and miss the playoffs like they always do. It makes sense they’d lose here to an underrated Chris Redman led Falcons team that almost beat New Orleans last week.

San Francisco at Philadelphia 13-31

Teams traveling across the country struggle very noticeably. The Eagles are on fire right now and are the superior team. I don’t think they’ll lose in Philly against a mediocre team from the West Coast that can’t stop the pass, which happens to be all the Eagles do anymore.

Chicago at Baltimore 13-27

Chicago showed some revival last week against the Packers, but the Ravens had a huge week last week against the Lions. The Lions have an awful defense, but the Bears might not actually be much better, especially on the ground against power running teams, which the Ravens are. The Ravens have the momentum and should be able to squash the Bears at home.

Cincinnati at San Diego 24-31

The Bengals like playing underdog, but I don’t think they can beat a red hot Chargers team, that hasn’t lost in December since 2006 and hasn’t lost in the regular season at all since week 6. The Chargers are an air it out type football team, especially at home, and the Bengals don’t have the deep threats to counter that. Even if Carson Palmer throws more than 94 yards, which hopefully he does, the Chargers should be able to pass their way to victory. There’s a reason why the Bengals haven’t beaten a team from any division other than the AFC and NFC North.

Oakland at Denver 6-27

Charlie Frye is going to start for the Raiders over JaMarcus Russell. Even if he is better than JaMarcus Skittles…Yikes! The Raiders are at a huge disadvantage by starting a weak armed quarterback against a tough Broncos passing defense, especially when he consider that all of the Raiders receivers are deep threats. If the Broncos score twice in the first quarter, this one could be over early and I don’t even think Nmandi Ashmouga will be able to stop Brandon Marshall right now. He actually had a good game against Ashmouga the last time these two teams played and he’s as on fire as can be right now.

Green Bay at Pittsburgh 28-31

The Steelers need this one and they know they need it. They are fairly evenly matched with the Packers, good passing game, good defense, so so running game and bad offensive lines, but the Steelers want this one more and they have a more mature quarterback who is used to winning huge games in the past. The Packers haven’t actually beaten anyone of note this season yet with their biggest win coming against the Ravens and after going 0-7 in games decided by 7 points or less last season, its hard to call Aaron Rodgers a clutch quarterback who wins big games. Despite recent struggles in the clutch, you can say that about Big Ben. The Steelers also have a better pass rush to exploit the Packers’ paper thin offensive line.

Tampa Bay at Seattle 10-23

Its hard to like either team after how crappy they both were last week, but I’ll take Matt Hasselbeck’s experience at home against Josh Freeman’s youth. The Seahawks have picked off one gunslinging turnover prone quarterback, Matt Stafford, 5 times in one game this season and won that game on the strength of those picks. They can do that again here.

Minnesota at Carolina 31-13

Hmm…Brett Favre and all his options or Matt Moore and Steve Smith. The Vikings are better than the Panthers at every aspect of the game. The Panthers have only one good receiving option and the toughness and strength of Antonio Winfield should be able to keep him in check all game. The Vikings also have the better defense and running game, especially when you consider how thin the Panthers defense is against the run and how thick the Vikings are against the run. I would much rather have Adrian Peterson against that injury plagues front four than DeAngelo Williams and Jonathan Stewart, who had trouble against Vince Wilfork last week, against the big Williams Wall.

NY Giants at Washington 24-28 upset pick

The Redskins have quietly hit their stride offensively and have actually played decent all season, they just didn’t have a lot of wins to show for it. They should be able to do a lot of damage against the Giants passing defense. The Redskins love to win meaningless games late in the season against their rivals, especially if it means bad things for their rivals’ playoff hopes. The Redskins almost beat the Giants week 1 in New York and that was before things went bad for the G-Men.

 

 

 

My record:

Last week: 10-6

Overall picks: 127-65 (.661)

Lock picks: 10-3

Upset picks: 12-20

Pittsburgh at Cleveland 21-6 lock pick

The Steelers haven’t won since week 8, but the Browns have only won one game this season and that was a game in which then starting quarterback Derek Anderson completed two passes en route to a 6-3 victory. Brady Quinn has been playing better of late, but I think the Steelers will snap their streak this week against the Browns in a must win game.

New Orleans at Atlanta 31-13

Matt Ryan isn’t expected to play in this game so the Falcons, who already lost to the Saints earlier this season before all their injuries struck, are at a huge disadvantage. The Falcons weak secondary couldn’t even stop Josh Freeman two weeks ago and he followed that up by throwing 5 picks against the Panthers. How do they expect to stop Drew Brees? The Saints did almost lose to the Redskins last week, but the Redskins are actually good, at everything except winning. The Saints have shown no signs that they intend to sit players rather than going for 16-0 so they’ll go all out here and destroy the Falcons as they should.

Green Bay at Chicago 24-20

The Bears have already lost to the Packers once this season and Aaron Rodgers and the Packers are on a roll now winning 4 straight after a wake up call loss to the Bucs. The Bears only shot at winning is if they can bring as much pressure as they brought on Rodgers week 1, but the Packers’ offensive line has gotten better. Jay Cutler and his offensive line have gotten worse which will force Cutler into more bad throws against a shut down Packers pass defense.

NY Jets at Tampa Bay 16-19 upset pick

This always happens to the Jets. They always look like they are going to do something and make the playoffs and then bad stuff happens. Mark Sanchez is likely not going to play in this game which means Kellen Clemens will face the Bucs and the Bucs have a good shot to win that game. It just makes too much sense, after all the hope that the Jets have given their fans this season, that they go out and lose this one in Tampa.

Miami at Jacksonville 21-24

The Jags are a tough team to predict. It’s literally like flipping a coin with them, but for the most part Jacksonville is at their best when people are sleeping on them and when they are at home. Both are the case in this one as the Jags are a quiet 7-5 now. Plus, the Miami aren’t from the West, against whom the Jags are 2-3 with those two wins coming in close ones against the Chiefs and Rams, who are awful.

Detroit at Baltimore 17-20

This one will be closer than you think. The Ravens’ offense lacks maturity and takes a while to start up and that could give Daunte Culpepper a chance to do some damage early and get a lead against a barely passable Ravens’ pass defense and a weak Ravens’ pass rush. However, when the Lions get leads, they often don’t keep them. This will be close, but the Ravens are the better team and will win here.

Seattle at Houston 14-27

Two dynamic passing games that aren’t getting much help, I’ll take Matt Schaub at home over Matt Hasselbeck who is on the road and not getting any blocking from his line. The Texans also have more to play for because Gary Kubiak could be coaching for his job and Jim Mora obviously isn’t because he’s not using his best players, like Justin Forsett. The Texans should have too big of a lead to blow this week because they are clearly the superior team, but you never know.

 

Denver at Indianapolis 26-31

The Broncos have a good pass defense and have two straight blow out wins, but the Colts are the Colts and Peyton Manning is going to do everything in his power to win this game, even if it doesn’t matter. The Broncos may lead late, but the Colts don’t seem to be intimidated by that. Even when you think you’ve beaten them, you haven’t beaten them. The Broncos don’t have many good wins away from home this season and this one is in Indy which helps the Colts.

Buffalo at Kansas City 16-10 upset pick

The Chiefs entire defense is awful, but their secondary tackles like high schoolers. The Bills have two wide receivers, Lee Evans and Terrell Owens, who get good yards after the catch and they should be exploit to exploit the Chiefs secondary weaknesses to get a win in a game between two bad, but evenly matched teams.

Cincinnati at Minnesota 24-21 upset pick

The Bengals haven’t won a lot of games by blowing teams out, they looked bad in wins against the Browns and the Lions, the Vikings are the 2^nd best team record wise in the NFC and play a grind it out style of football. This is the perfect game for the Bengals. They always play their best against the best, especially when people are sleeping on them and they beat teams that like to grind it out. It’s no coincidence that they are 9-0 against teams from divisions with the word north in their name, which are generally teams that like to grind it out, and 0-3 against everyone else.

Carolina at New England 10-31

Tom Brady lost his first back to back games since 2003 last week, so I can’t say he hasn’t lost back to back games since 2003, but the Pats haven’t lost at home this season and the Panthers are so bad offensively that their defense got 5 interceptions against the Bucs and still only managed 16 points. Tom Brady isn’t going to lose this one with the Jets breathing down their necks.

Washington at Oakland 13-17

The Redskins are good at everything except winning games. Now they have to go across the country and play a meaningless game after blowing their shot to beat an undefeated team. The Raiders have been playing well lately thanks to good quarterback play by Bruce Gradkowski and win the majority of their games against teams from the East Coast at home.

St. Louis at Tennessee 7-23

The Rams aren’t a very good team. The Titans lost last week, snapping a 5 game winning streak, but they should snap their 1 game losing streak here at home against a bad opponent and get back into the hunt for the playoffs.

San Diego at Dallas 31-24 upset pick

The Chargers play some of their best football in December, the Cowboys, not so much. I can’t imagine Tony Romo beating a good team in December until he actually does it.

Philadelphia at NY Giants 38-28 upset pick

The Eagles always play their best football in December and have the talent edge over the Giants. The Eagles have been playing very well lately, especially in crunch time.

Arizona at San Francisco 17-14

The Cardinals looked amazing against the Vikings last week. The Niners are a tough team and won’t lose this one by much, but they don’t matchup well with the Cardinals, who will even the season series at 1 each and clinch the playoffs with a win.

 

 

 

My record:

Last week: 10-6

Overall picks: 117-61 (.657)

Lock picks: 9-3

Upset picks: 12-17

NY Jets at Buffalo 24-21

The Bills have been playing better of late, especially offensively, but I’m not liking the matchup. The Jets are a good running team and the Bills can’t stop anyone on the ground. That will take more pressure off of Mark Sanchez who won’t be forced into as many picks. Meanwhile, Darrelle Revis should be able to contain Terrell Owens one-on-one which hurts the Bills offense because their two offensive plans are to use Owens as a decoy who draws doubles, and hit him deep with single coverage. They won’t really have either of those options this week because Revis can shut Owens down deep by himself.

Philadelphia at Atlanta 28-17

Andy Reid has to be loving this matchup. He loves to throw the ball with McNabb and the Falcons have proven to be one of the weaker pass defenses in the league this year. Even with DeSean Jackson likely out with a concussion, the Eagles have wide receiver depth with Jeremy Maclin, Jason Avant, plus Brent Celek at tight end. I don’t think quarterback sub Chris Redman will be able to lead enough scoring drives with his conservative arm to match that and with Michael Turner likely out for the Falcons too, he won’t have a good running game supporting him against the Eagles 4^th ranked run defense. The Falcons will have to go conservative this week in play calling due to Chris Redman’s weak arm and you can’t win like that, especially against a team like the Eagles who are loaded with weapons on both sides of the ball and who always play well in December, if you don’t have a strong running game and defense to support you in the field position game.

St. Louis at Chicago 9-27

Look for Jay Cutler to breakout this week. There’s two things he hates, pressure from the opposing defensive line and pressure from the opposing offense. The Rams only have 18 sacks this season so even with Chicago’s awful offensive line, they won’t be able to bring a ton of pressure on Cutler, and the Rams offense, even with Steven Jackson running well and the Bears defense playing poorly, won’t be able to score enough points to force Cutler into making bad throws. Cutler is not mentally tough, but he’s talented. He has the skills to be a great quarterback who dominates teams, especially ones with weak secondaries, when he’s not facing pressure.

Detroit at Cincinnati 17-38

The Browns defense is bad, but I’m convinced after the Lions let Brady Quinn of all people score 4 touchdowns, that the Lions are the worst defense in the league and the numbers will back me up. The Bengals offense didn’t quite blow out the Browns last week, but with Cedric Benson back and Larry Johnson running well to give Benson and his injured hip necessary rest, the Bengals should be able to get a big blow out win here.

Oakland at Pittsburgh 7-27

Ben Roethlisberger should be back this week and the Steelers need this win to stay in the playoff race. Big Ben is a great leader who steps up in big games like this. I highly doubt that the Raiders will be able to come into Pittsburgh and beat Big Ben and the Steelers if Roethlisberger plays like he has in the past in big games at home.

Tennessee at Indianapolis 14-20 game of the week

People like Vince Young and the Colts are a bit of a popular pick to get the upset this week, but I like Peyton Manning more. The Colts look like Phoenixes out there right now. You kill them and then they rise from the ashes in the 4^th quarter to win. They have won their last 5 games despite losing in the 4^th quarter in each of them, an NFL record. Vince Young and the Titans may be clutch, but Peyton Manning and the Colts are more clutch and more talented. The Colts have had the Titans number in past years in a huge way, especially at home in Indy, and I think they continue that in this game.

Denver at Kansas City 24-16

The Broncos beat a mess of a Giants team last week, but before that, they were a mess of a team losing 4 straight. And they weren’t just losing. They were losing big time. However, these two teams are really similar. Both run shotgun style offenses, 3-4 defenses, have weak armed quarterbacks with good accuracy, and have talented but inexperienced starting running backs. When that is the case, the team with the more talented players normally wins. The Broncos have a more talented group of receivers, offensive line, defense, and I think they are better coached by Josh McDaniels who has more experience with the shotgun offense, learning from one of the modern creators of the NFL shotgun offense, Bill Belicheck. The Broncos have a tough time with tough, physical teams, but the finesse Chiefs shouldn’t be much problem for them. Both teams might look like mirrors of each other, but I think the Broncos have a few more successful drives and thus put up more points to win.

New England at Miami 42-10

Tom Brady hasn’t lost back-to-back games since 2003. Most of the time, the next game after a loss for Brady isn’t even close. Brady has had success in the past against the Dolphins, who are starting two rookie corners against two wide receivers who rank in the top 5 in the NFL in receiving yards. Plus, Belicheck might actually still be a little bitter after the Dolphins torched them last season with the wildcat so he’ll want to pull out all the stop to destroy and humiliate this team. I wouldn’t want to be the Dolphins this week.

New Orleans at Washington 34-9

After the way they played last week, I think the Saints can easily run the table in the regular season. Teams will be gunning for them, but they have a ridiculously easy rest of the schedule, starting with the Redskins. I don’t think the 3-8 Redskins can beat the Saints, even after all the money Redskins owner Dan Snyder spent in the offseason on Albert Haynesworth, DeAngelo Hall, and Derrick Dockery.

 

Tampa Bay at Carolina 23-20 upset pick

The Panthers have been playing horrible again these past couple of weeks as Jake Delhomme has once again fallen colorblind and starting throwing to the defenders again with 5 picks in the last 2 weeks after none in the previous 3. Delhomme is hurt and Matt Moore will likely start this game. Some people are saying that Matt Moore starting at quarterback is an upgrade, but I don’t think so. John Fox kept this guy on his bench while Delhomme threw 18 picks to 8 touchdowns. Either John Fox is stupid or blind or Matt Moore isn’t any good either. And I happen to be a fan of John Fox. The Bucs, as bad as they’ve been on defense, actually rank tied for 7^th in the league in interceptions so Matt Moore, 6 interceptions to 3 touchdowns in 123 career attempts, could be picked off a few times, especially since he hadn’t seen any game action, before last week, since 2007. Moore also will be without franchise left tackle Jordan Gross to protect his blindside, so he could see a lot of pressure from a Tampa Bay team that actually has created good pressure on the quarterback this year with 23 sacks, good for tied for 17^th in the league. The Bucs are a resilient team who actually have a decent offense so I think this game is actually very winnable for them.

Houston at Jacksonville 21-24

The Jags are tough to protect since they seem to choose to stink every few weeks, but this one seems like a winnable game for them. It’s at home where they are 4-1 and it’s after a bad loss when people hate them. They have only lost back-to-back games once this season and that was after a very respectable loss by 2 to the Colts. They also beat the Texans in Houston week 3 after an ugly loss to the Cardinals for those of you who like your history lessons. I think they have a good shot to beat a depleted Texans team that, after 3 straight crushing losses, likely feels like they are out of the playoffs in the AFC.

San Diego at Cleveland 38-6 lock pick

The Browns stink and the Chargers are locked in winning 6 straight. I shouldn’t even have to write much here. The Browns one win game in a game in which they completed 2 passes. They are going to have to complete more than 2 passes to beat a Chargers offense that hasn’t scored less than 20 all year and has scored 30 or more in 3 straight weeks.

Dallas at NY Giants 23-27

It’s December, Tony Romo. Have fun! Romo historically stinks in December so much so that it can’t really be credited to luck. He’s not a good finisher and he’s not mentally tough. Eli Manning is the opposite. Manning is one of the few quarterbacks whose numbers actually get better in December and in the 4^thquarter, especially over the past few weeks. He’s playing hurt, but he’s a tough guy and knows that this is a must win at home in the Meadowlands against the team that they are chasing in the division. The Giants trail the Cowboys by 2 games, but own the tiebreaker. Losing here would put them 3 back and without the tiebreaker which is essentially 4 back. They know they need to win here and Eli Manning can be counted on in those types of games.

San Francisco at Seattle 20-17 upset pick

The Seahawks already lost to the Niners this year and have actually gotten worse since that matchup thanks to injuries. The Niners looked good last week against the Jags and are going to more of a spread offense finally which will get the most out of Alex Smith. I like Smith in a shotgun more than I like Matt Hasselbeck getting no protection against a Niners defense that forced 6 sacks against the Jaguars who spent their first two picks last year on offensive tackles. The Niners’ defense is much better than the Seahawks’ as well.

Minnesota at Arizona 31-21

Kurt Warner or no Kurt Warner I think the Cards lose this one. The Vikings would be Super Bowl favorites if it weren’t for the Colts and the Saints having a combined 0 losses. Brett Favre is playing great right now and should be able to torch a weak Cardinals secondary even if the Cardinals’ strong run defense is somehow able to stop Adrian Peterson on the ground. The Vikings will put up a bunch of points and whether its Matt Leinart or a woozy Kurt Warner at quarterback, the Cards won’t be able to put up the points necessary on the Vikings defense to win this game.

Baltimore at Green Bay 27-21 upset pick

The Packers’ finesse offense has trouble with tough physical teams like Baltimore. The Ravens are coming off of a motivating win over the Steelers and play another must win game here against the Packers who have played a soft schedule. That hurts because they both aren’t as good as their 7-4 record and likely don’t know that, which is a bad combination against a tough fiery Ravens team. We’ve seen them already demolish a finesse Broncos team coming off of a weak schedule.

-12/2/09

 

 

 

 

My record:

Last week: 13-3

Overall picks: 107-55 (.660)

Lock picks: 8-3

Upset picks: 12-14

Green Bay at Detroit 38-10

Brady Quinn threw for 4 touchdowns last week against the Lions, or one fewer touchdown than the Browns offense had scored all season until that point. However do you think Aaron Rodgers throws? 5? 6? 7? I may be exaggerating, but unless he gets sacked too many times, he’s going to have a field day against the Lions defense and the Lions offense, which is expected to be without their two most promising young players, Matt Stafford and Calvin Johnson, is not going to be able to keep up with that and the Lions will get embarrassed on Thanksgiving once again. Maybe this is what Roger Goddell means by Thanksgiving tradition.

Oakland at Dallas 14-24

The Cowboys offense has scored 14 points in the last two games and all of them came in the final quarter, but the Raiders, despite their win last week, are not a good team. Can you honestly say that the Raiders whole team can be turned around by Bruce Gradkowski? They won, but it was in a bit of a fluke fashion. The Cowboys will make them look like they usually do this week.

NY Giants at Denver 28-12

Kyle Orton is expected to play, but not well. Orton relies so much on his footwork because he doesn’t have a strong arm and, as he showed last year after the ankle injury, and last week as well, he’s not the same quarterback without his feet under him correctly. The Giants didn’t look great last week in a win, but they have a ton of talent and match up well against a reeling Denver team. This should be an easy win for them.

Tampa Bay at Atlanta 17-31

Michael Turner or no Michael Turner, the Falcons have a good offense and should be able to put together a great game against a completely destroyed Tampa defense which has just lost its defensive coordinator. This one could be a bit of a shootout because the Bucs have a decent offense too and the Falcons defense has a lot of holes, but I trust Matt Ryan in a shootout much more than Josh Freeman.

Miami at Buffalo 23-17

The Bills can’t stop normally rushing schemes. They are dead last in almost all run stopping categories. How will they be able to stop the wildcat? Miami has already beaten the Bills once this season with the wildcat and should be able to do it here again because the Bills are a mess and have just lost their coach.

Cleveland at Cincinnati 9-24

This game needed overtime the last time these two teams met, but the Browns don’t have a very good offense, despite what they showed last week against the Lions and the certainly don’t have a very good defense because Matt Stafford torched them for 5 scores last week. The Bengals haven’t blown out a lot of teams for some reason this season and I don’t expect this to be too lopsided, but the Bengals are going to win. They’re hungry after last week’s loss.

Seattle at St. Louis 21-7

The Seahawks have not played well this season, but one of their 3 wins this season was a 28 point blowout of the Rams. They should be able to win with ease again against Kyle Boller and company.

 

Carolina at NY Jets 21-24

Darrelle Revis is the Andre Johnson of cornerbacks. He is the one cornerback that can make a whole secondary amazing by himself. He will be on Steve Smith this week which makes Steve Smith isn’t going to be able to do much. The Panthers don’t have many other good receivers, which means that Delhomme is going to try to force things to Smith which will mean interceptions and the ball back into the Jets offense’s hands. Sanchez has been throwing a bunch of interceptions lately, but he shouldn’t need to throw as much this week if Delhomme turns it over like I think he will. The Jets have a strong running game and should be able to run it straight down the heart of the Panthers’ depleted defensive line.

Washington at Philadelphia 10-24

This is a rematch of a few weeks ago and I don’t expect this one to be any different. The Redskins are a lost cause this season and will be using Rock Cartwright at running back this week.

Indianapolis at Houston 28-31 upset pick

Someone has to beat them right? The Colts have won their last 4 games by a combined 10 points. The Texans were a missed field goal away from sending this one into overtime a few weeks ago and I think they finish the job here at home. They need this game badly and will play like there’s nothing to lose.

Kansas City at San Diego 10-31 lock pick

The Chiefs won last week in overtime fair and square because both sides got the ball, but Ben Roethlisberger was hurt for the Steelers which definitely helped them. The Chargers are on a roll and should be able to continue that roll right over the lowly Chiefs.

Jacksonville at San Francisco 13-10 upset pick

The Niners have been really struggling lately and the Jags have too, but they’ve been finding ways to win. I think the Jags, as poorly coached as they are, find another way to win here on the road

Chicago at Minnesota 13-31

Jay Cutler is trying to do his best gunslinger impression this season, but Brett Favre is the better gunslinger here because when he slings it, his guys catch it. It doesn’t sail over his speed receiver’s head by 5 yards, the other team doesn’t catch it. These two teams are going in such opposite directions right now. Cutler will get no support from his running game against the Williams wall, which means he’ll try to sling it a lot to keep up with Favre. Advantage, Favre.

Arizona at Tennessee 28-24

The Titans have won four in a row, but none of them convincingly. The Cardinals are quietly building steam towards another post season run and are playing great football right now. Kurt Warner should be able to expose the Titans secondary, which, contrary to popular belief, is not good.

Pittsburgh at Baltimore 14-20

Big Ben is expected to play through his concussion. This isn’t the first time he’s done this and he didn’t look too bad the last time he did. He should be able to lead a hungry Steelers team to a clutch close late victory against their division rival.

11/28/09: Ben Roethlisberger is not going to play. This greatly tips the scales towards Baltimore, which is very bad for the Steelers who are already losers on 2 straight and are another loss away from being on the outside looking in on the six playoff teams down the stretch

New England at New Orleans 31-27 upset pick, game of the week

The offenses cancel out. The defenses do not. The Saints have had a ton of injuries on that side of the ball and the Patriots are the better defensive squad right now. They have a frustrating secondary, just ask Peyton Manning, and they bring the pressure in a lot of different ways. Belicheck is the better coach and after his last mistake against the Colts, he’s hungry to destroy an undefeated team and reestablish his team’s dominance.

-11/25/09

 

 

My record:

Last week: 9-6

Overall picks: 94-52 (.644)

Lock picks: 8-2

Upset picks: 10-14

Miami at Carolina 13-24

Jake Delhomme seems to be riding a bit of a “hot” streak right now and the Panthers are finally playing well. He should have another decent game with limited throws against a Dolphins secondary that is starting two rookie corners. The Panthers running game is also functioning well, while the Dolphins offense takes a big hit with the injury to Ronnie Brown, which will put more pressure on Chad Henne against one of the best pass defenses in the league.

Washington at Dallas 13-27

Washington beat Denver last week because Kyle Orton got hurt, but this is still a mess of a team and the Cowboys offense should have a nice bounce back game against the Redskins.

Cleveland at Detroit 6-17

This is not a game of which team is better. This is a game of which team is worse. These two teams are a combined 2-16 this season. Right now, I’m inclined to think the Browns are worse. Their offense has scored 5 touchdowns all year. The Saints defense has scored 7. I think the Browns offense sucks so much that I actually picked up the Lions defense to start for me in fantasy this week over the Titans.

San Francisco at Green Bay 13-23

The Packers had a nice bounce back game last week and they did it defensively. Aaron Rodgers was still sacked 4 times despite making a lot of short throws. However, since I can’t really tell which Packers’ team will show up this week, I will just go with the Packers because I think they have a higher talent level. The Niners also have trouble getting sacks so Rodgers will finally have more time to throw.

Pittsburgh at Kansas City 30-6 lock pick

Kansas City barely beat the Raiders. This is by no stretch of the imagination a good offensive team. Matt Cassel sucked against the Steelers last year when he had Wes Welker and Randy Moss. How do you think he’ll do this time with Chris Chambers and Lance Long as his top two receivers? Both of those guys were not even on the roster a few weeks ago. The Chiefs’ defense sucks as well so this should be a blowout.

Atlanta at NY Giants 17-23

Both teams have been headed in the wrong direction the last few weeks, but the Giants had a bye week to sort things out and the Falcons best offensive player is likely to miss this game. Advantage, New York.

New Orleans at Tampa Bay 37-21

The Saints defense is falling apart due to injuries, but they get an easy foe this week in the Bucs. The Bucs have been a better offensive team of late, but the Saints defense isn’t that bad, even with all the injuries. This is likely to be a shootout and I’d much rather have Drew Brees than Josh Freeman in a shootout.

Buffalo at Jacksonville 21-24

The Bills are falling apart and have just fired their coach, while the Jags are riding a bit of a hot streak and head home where they are significantly statistically better this season. The Bills could make this close because the Jags defense is just that bad, but I find it hard to pick them this week.

Indianapolis at Baltimore 27-16 upset pick

Yes, Peyton Manning has trouble against 3-4 defenses, but he is Peyton Manning and he is playing very well of late, better than average for him. The Ravens have had trouble in the first half this season and they couldn’t score in the first half against Cleveland on Monday night. Indy’s defense is better than the Browns’ and Peyton Manning is a much better quarterback than Brady Quinn (as are most). He should capitalize on the Ravens’ early struggles. And what is with Vegas making Indy an underdog. Are they trying to lose money?

Seattle at Minnesota 16-28

Seattle just isn’t the team I thought they’d be before the season thanks to injuries on the offensive line and the Vikings are an extremely well rounded and talented team that shouldn’t have much trouble here.

Arizona at St. Louis 31-6

The Rams simply don’t have the talent to beat Kurt Warner and the Cardinals, but it should be interesting to see Warner return to St. Louis again.

NY Jets at New England 10-38

The Pats lost by 1 in heartbreaking fashion to their rival Colts last week. They haven’t lost back to back games with Brady at the helm since 2003 and play their best football after losses because they feel they have to reestablish themselves as an elite team again. I feel sorry for the Jets, who Belicheck personally hates.

Cincinnati at Oakland 31-9

The Bengals won last week in conservative fashion, but Carson Palmer is also a good gunslinger who has been able to blow out bad teams in the past. The Raiders certainly qualify.

San Diego at Denver 27-13 game of the week

The Chargers get better as the season goes on and the Broncos get worse. It seems to happen every year. Just like last year, the Chargers should be able to blow out the Broncos in their 2^nd meeting, even more so because the Broncos will likely be without Kyle Orton.

Philadelphia at Chicago 26-10

I can’t take the Bears and Jay Cutler after that 5 interception stinker last week against one of the most opportunistic secondaries in the league. The Eagles need to reestablish their dominance and they are a much more complete team than the Bears right now.

Tennessee at Houston 34-33 upset pick

The Texans should have a good game offensively against the Titans, but the question is, can the Texans contain Chris Johnson and based on defensive statistics and Chris Johnson’s huge game against the Texans earlier this year, I say no. The Titans barely lost earlier this season to the Texans and they are a better team than they were then. I think they finish the job this week in upset fashion.

 

 

My record:

Last week: 9-4

Overall picks: 85-46 (.649)

Lock picks: 7-2

Upset picks: 8-12

Chicago at San Francisco 28-20 upset pick

Chicago is 4-4. The opposing quarterback in their 4 wins, Matt Stafford, Ben Roethlisberger (the one exception, but it was a 3 point win), Seneca Wallace, and Derek Anderson. The opposing quarterback in their 4 losses, Aaron Rodgers, Carson Palmer, Matt Ryan, and Kurt Warner. Jay Cutler just can’t beat superior quarterbacks because he forces things too much when feeling the pressure to compete with a superior quarterback. I say this every week and I pick right for them every week, except week 2. I’ll stick with it. Alex Smith is not a superior quarterback to Cutler. He should be fine.

New Orleans at St. Louis 31-10

The best team in the NFC against one of the worst. I like the best team here. The Saints should cruise to 9-0 on the road.

Tampa Bay at Miami 18-24

Tampa Bay’s win last week was a fluke. Why do I say this? They gave up 406 yards of offense as opposed to the 279 they produced. It’s tough to win when you don’t play well, but occasionally you can. That’s hard to maintain though. This weak patchwork defense could have trouble with the wildcat.

Detroit at Minnesota 10-38

Brett Favre is rested after his bye which is huge. He should have a huge game against a Lions team that is very good at blowing 17 point leads. I don’t foresee any big lead for the Lions to blow this week. Just an old fashion blowout.

Jacksonville at NY Jets 16-20

The Jaguars are a different team on the road than they are at home. They are a worse one. The Jets offense should be able to exploit an awful defense that couldn’t stop Matt Cassel, who got no run support, from going 23-39 for 2 touchdowns and no picks. You’d think they’d be able to stop a weak armed quarterback when they know he is going to throw, but I guess not. The Jets are more offensively balanced and have a better quarterback.

Buffalo at Tennessee 16-20

I’m going with the hot hand here in a tough one. Vince Young has a great win loss record in his career despite awful stats and he is facing a mediocre opponent.

Cincinnati at Pittsburgh 13-24

Cincinnati is playing very well, especially within the division, but I think this is the week they fall. The Bengals have a great squad playing well, but the Steelers are on a huge roll, 5 straight, and ate up Denver last week on the road.

Denver at Washington 21-13

This should be a bounce back win for a struggling Broncos team. The Redskins aren’t very good and should be without their best offensive player, Clinton Portis due to a nasty concussion injury.

Atlanta at Carolina 17-21 upset pick

The Panthers can win games they can grind out. Atlanta isn’t very good at stopping the run so Delhomme’s shouldn’t have to throw much and even if he does, he hasn’t been awful these past few weeks. He didn’t throw an interception against the most opportunistic defense in the league last week and almost won. Plus, Carolina’s tough pass defense should be able to keep Matt Ryan in check.

Kansas City at Oakland 20-13 upset pick

Two awful teams. Oakland won last time so I’m going to go with the Chiefs here just to even things out. The Chiefs are slightly less of a mess and the Raiders are favorited for the first time since 2003 (only partially kidding). They might explode.

Seattle at Arizona 14-24

Kurt Warner should be able to destroy a weak Seattle secondary like they did last time they played. Seattle isn’t great as a team and they almost lost to Detroit last week.

Dallas at Green Bay 31-20

The Packers are really lacking maturity right now. The Cowboys should continue their roll into Green Bay in a shootout.

Philadelphia at San Diego 13-27

Andy Reid’s Eagles just can’t seem to win on the west coast. They lost to the Raiders this year on the west coast. The Chargers have the momentum right now and the Eagles are reeling because it’s not December yet.

New England at Indianapolis 31-28 upset pick, game of the week

The Colts have really looked bad the past two weeks, almost losing to San Francisco and Houston. The Patriots’ offense seems to be clicking right now and Peyton Manning has struggled with 3-4 defenses in the past. This should be an extremely interesting game, but I like the Pats to come out on top in a shootout.

Baltimore at Cleveland 31-3 lock pick

This should be a big bounce back win for the Ravens. The Browns are the worst team in the league. Instead of going into deep analysis here, I will complain about how the Browns are on Monday Night Football once again. Doesn’t ESPN know they suck.

 

 

My record

Overall: 76-42

Last week: 9-4

Lock picks: 7-1

Upset picks: 6-11

Washington at Atlanta 10-28

The Redskins proved week 7 against the Eagles that they just flat out stink. This should be a good bounce back win for the Falcons who lost a hard fought game against the Saints last week on Monday Night Football.

Arizona at Chicago 28-24 upset pick

I say this every week. Jay Cutler has good weeks against teams with bad quarterbacks because he doesn’t feel the pressure to force things to win as he does against superior quarterback. Kurt Warner had a bad week last week against a tough Carolina pass defense, but he normally bounces back from bad weeks fairly well. I expect him to have a bounce back game and Jay Cutler will look silly trying to catch up with him by himself.

Baltimore at Cincinnati 21-24 upset pick

The Ravens defense had a big week last week looking Raven esque last week against the Broncos, but people forget how good the Bengals offense looked before their bye week last week. I doubt buy this whole idea that bye weeks kill momentum. It will affect you some, but not kill your momentum. Both teams are on a roll, but the Bengals are more consistent on both sides of the ball and they beat the Ravens in Baltimore earlier this season. The Ravens secondary couldn’t stop Carson Palmer last time and Cedric Benson had one of those, “you think I’m going to suck, well I’m going to be awesome just to prove you wrong” games and nothing should be different this time. I like the Bengals in a close one.

Houston at Indianapolis 20-31

Credit Peyton Manning not throwing a touchdown last week to the fact that, for some reason, he doesn’t play well against 3-4 defenses. Luckily for Indy, the Texans, a team he has destroyed in the past, run a 4-3 defense. Matt Schaub is a good quarterback, but he and this Texans offense aren’t going to be able to keep up with Manning destroying the Texans secondary in a bounce back game. The Colts are the more complete team.

Miami at New England 14-38

Have fun stopping this ’07 esque Tom Brady. Brady is on a roll recently and while that has been against crappy secondaries, the Dolphins have a crappy secondary of their own and that was before Will Allen went out for the season. The Dolphins can wildcat all they want, something they haven’t been able to do well against the Patriots since that first time last season, the Dolphins won’t be able to stop Tom Brady.

 

Green Bay at Tampa Bay 31-10 lock pick

Aaron Rodgers has beat up on a bunch of bad teams this season. That should continue this week. The Bucs are a mess.

Kansas City at Jacksonville 20-16 upset pick

The Jaguars have been playing awful lately needing overtime to beat the Rams, who were winless at the time, and then losing to the previously winless Vince Young and the Titans. The Chiefs one strength is their passing game, something that the Jaguars just can’t stop. Plus, I expect the Chiefs running game to be better with the suspension of Larry Johnson and his 2.7 YPC. The Jags haven’t been able to stop that much either.

Carolina at New Orleans 13-38

Most opportunistic secondary in the league, meet the quarterback who gives the defense the most opportunities to pick off the ball, Jake Delhomme. I think John Fox has figured out that he needs to throw less and run more, but I don’t think he’ll be able to do that as much this week to keep up with Drew Brees which means Jake Delhomme will have to throw more than they like, which means turnovers, which means the Saints offense gets the ball back to score more points, forcing Delhomme to throw more interceptions, starting the cycle over again. This is pretty much how they win games, how they forced conservative Matt Ryan to throw 3 picks last week, and that’s how they’ll win this week.

Detroit at Seattle 10-23

The Seahawks offense should break out of their recent funk against the hapless Lions defense. In fact, the Lions are pretty hapless all around.

Tennessee at San Francisco 12-24

I think Vince Young’s successful debut was a fluke because he was playing the Jaguars who make every quarterback look good…even Marc Bulger. He’ll have a tougher time against the swarming, resilient, Mike Singletary coached group that limited Peyton Manning last week. Meanwhile, the Niners’ offense will grow stronger in spread formation with Alex Smith playing like he’s at Utah under Urban Meyer again against a week Tennessee secondary.

San Diego at NY Giants 21-27

The Chargers could be a bit complacent this week after two straight easy wins against the Chiefs and Raiders and the Giants need this win after losing 3 straight. The Chargers are also traveling across 3 time zones. This looks like a good bounce back win for Eli Manning and the Giants this week, but it will be close as both teams have a lot of talent. In fact, it could easily be argued that the Chargers are more talented, but they often grow complacent.

Dallas at Philadelphia 17-31

Donovan McNabb and the Eagles play huge in huge regular season games. Tony Romo and the Cowboys, quite the opposite. This game is for first place in the NFC East which means it’s a huge regular season game.

Pittsburgh at Denver 24-14

The finesse Broncos were destroyed by the physical Ravens last week. The Steelers are even more physical and tough than the Ravens are and they are rested after a bye week and they had a 4 game winning streak before the bye.

 

 

My record

Overall: 67-38 (.638)

Upset picks: 5-10

Lock picks: 6-1

Houston at Buffalo 27-16

The Bills defense has 8 interceptions in the last two weeks and that has set up their offense with great field position and allowed them to win two games. However, they have played Mark Sanchez and Jake Delhomme who are extremely turnover friendly. Matt Schaub does not make nearly as many mistakes and thus the Bills weak offense, made weaker by the injury to Trent Edwards, will be exposed. I don’t see Ryan Fitzpatrick and his weak arm keeping up with Matt Schaub.

Cleveland at Chicago 6-27 lock pick

The Browns are a mess right now. Derek Anderson seems to think the defenders are his receivers because he has 7 interceptions in 4 starts and a 43.8 completion percentage. Jay Cutler should have no trouble winning this game because he won’t be facing a ton of pressure to keep up with the opposing quarterback, as he has clearly felt in every single loss the season. Also, he won’t be facing a ton of pressure from the opposing defense as the Browns’ pass rush is very weak.

Seattle at Dallas 27-35

I expect Dallas to continue its offensive hot streak here at home. Seattle’s secondary is fairly weak and Tony Romo should be able to exploit this.

St. Louis at Detroit 6-16

This is going to be a pretty ugly game. These two teams are a combined 1-12 this season and their starting quarterbacks are injured and questionable. However, the Lions have more talent, especially on the defensive end of the ball and they are trying harder this season because most of their players were there for their 0-16 season last year and know how truly important it is to win games.

Denver at Baltimore 17-20

Baltimore’s physical style of play is going to give the finesse Broncos some problems. The Ravens are coming off 3 straight tough losses to tough teams and the Broncos don’t need this game as much with a 3 game division lead. The Ravens will be hungry and win this tough game in close fashion

San Francisco at Indianapolis 13-27

Peyton Manning has had trouble with 3-4 defenses in the past, but I can’t pick the Niners here. They are a tough bunch, but in terms of talent, they are probably bottom 10 or even bottom 5 in the league. Peyton Manning should have a great game against this weak secondary regardless of what scheme the Niners use in their front 7. Alex Smith is mistake prone and will have trouble keeping up with Manning.

Miami at NY Jets 13-20

The Dolphins barely beat the Jets a few weeks ago, but Mark Sanchez is a very streaky quarterback and he’s on a roll right now after a strong win against the Raiders. He should be able to exploit an ailing Dolphins’ secondary.

NY Giants at Philadelphia 31-28 upset pick

The Giants want revenge and are hungry after losing two straight. The Eagles destroyed them in the playoffs last year, but those were the playoff Eagles who are different, for whatever reason, than the regular season Eagles. This is a perfect revenge game for the Giants who can catch the Eagles, who are favorited, off guard.

Jacksonville at Tennessee 17-20

Another rematch, Jacksonville torched Tennessee’s secondary a few weeks ago, but the Jags have been struggling since and the Titans will be motivated to prove they are better than their 0-6 record. Vince Young will also be motivated to prove he belongs as an NFL quarterback. He should be able to lead the Titans to a victory in a close game against the Jaguars weak secondary and the rest of the reeling Jags.

Oakland at San Diego 10-24

The Chargers are an extremely talented team that looks to have woken up following their loss to the Broncos. They team had to wake up earlier this season after falling 3.5 back 6 games in, but they have responded to the wake up call and won by 30 last week, albeit to a weak foe. The Raiders, also a weak foe, should have a tough time here.

Carolina at Arizona 17-24

The Cardinals pass defense isn’t that great, 20^th in the league in yards per attempt, but they are very opportunistic picking off 7 throws this season, good for top ten in the league. Jake Delhomme is a very opportunity quarterback, and by that I mean he gives the defense many opportunities to take the ball from him. He has 13 interceptions on the season and the Cardinals should be able to pick him off a few times and that will be the difference in this matchup between two teams that are surprisingly evenly matched on paper.

Minnesota at Green Bay 35-31 upset pick

Those of you who think that Brett Favre will be at a disadvantage playing in Lambeau obviously underestimate the loyalty of Packers fans. There will be a large amount of people there who are going to be cheering him no matter what he does, even though he is wearing purple. Brett Favre has a knack for being big in big regular season games and he should be big here again in a close one.

Atlanta at New Orleans 28-38

Atlanta’s secondary will be no match for Drew Brees and the Saints pass game. This team is on too much of a roll right now and the Falcons won’t be able to score the points to keep up.

 

 

Green Bay at Cleveland 31-10

The Packers seem to be very good at destroying very bad teams. They have destroyed the Lions and the Rams so far this season, because both of those teams are bad teams without pass rush. The Browns are a bad team without a pass rush. I smell another blowout.

San Diego at Kansas City 27-17

Last week’s loss to the red hot Broncos last week, which dropped them 3.5 games back on the division, should be a wakeup call for this talented Chargers team. The Chargers will not do something this week they normally do and that is play down to the level of the competition. They should play to the level of their talent this week and they have the potential to destroy a weak Kansas City team.

Indianapolis at St. Louis 38-6 lock pick

My Power Rankings #1 team the Colts is facing my Power Rankings #32 team the Rams this week. I wonder who I’ll pick.

Minnesota at Pittsburgh 24-21 upset pick, game of the week

Brett Favre and Ben Roethlisberger are very similar quarterbacks believe it or not, though they do things in different ways. Both are good quarterbacks who turn into great quarterbacks in the clutch. This game will be about the players around them. Adrian Peterson had a great game against a stout Baltimore defense last week, with 144 yards, so this strong Pittsburgh defense doesn’t appear to be much of a challenge for him, especially with Aaron Smith on injured reserve for the rest of the season. The Steelers won’t be able to run that well so offensively the Vikings should be able to beat the Steelers at their own game, conservative offense, on the offensive side of the ball. On defense, the Vikings strong defensive line should destroy Pittsburgh’s weak offensive line in the trenches and when you win in the trenches, you often win the battle on defense. I like the Vikings on the road here in an “upset,” but it should be a good game.

New England at Tampa Bay 31-10

Just what the Bucs’ weak defense wants to see. Tom Brady on fire coming off of an amazing game. Good luck Josh Johnson keeping up with Brady on offense.

San Francisco at Houston 28-24 upset pick

I think the Texans are the more talented team and they should their potential last week against the Bengals. However, the 49ers are coming off of a 35 point loss and a bye week so Coach Mike Singletary will have them focused on the Texans and fired up. The Texans, as talented as they are, are often not focused and fired up.

Buffalo at Carolina 13-21

The Panthers have both of their running backs in a rhythm coming off of a win against the Bucs. The Bills gave up 200+ yards to 30 year old Thomas Jones last week. Jonathan Stewart and DeAngelo Williams should continue their rhythm this week and keep the ball out of Jake Delhomme’s hands as much as they can, and by Jake Delhomme’s hands, in mean the hands of the opposing defense with the way he’s playing right now.

NY Jets at Oakland 24-21

This game does not look so much like a lock win for the Jets anymore. They have to play a Raiders team, who is coming off of a win, three time zones away from home and after a horrible loss to the Bills, in a game in which Mark Sanchez threw 5 picks. However, I wouldn’t trust the Raiders with my hard earned money to win two in a row, but I wouldn’t be surprised if they won. I also wouldn’t be surprised if they covered the spread. Though I wouldn’t be surprised if they also got destroyed.

Atlanta at Dallas 38-24 upset pick

Matt Ryan is the real deal with Roddy White and Tony Gonzalez on his side. The Cowboys’ secondary is not. Tony Romo will have to force things to keep up with Ryan and that will lead to Romo’s trademark mental mistakes.

Chicago at Cincinnati 17-20

Jay Cutler is a good quarterback when not under pressure. The Bengals can’t create any pressure outside of Antawn Odom who is out for the season after last week’s game. The Bengals are a talented team, but they tend to struggle against teams they are supposed to beat and I don’t know how their mental toughness will be after a crushing loss to a lesser opponent.

New Orleans at Miami 38-17

The Dolphins can run all over teams, but Drew Brees is an amazing quarterback and the Dolphins secondary has plenty of holes in it. The Dolphins are going to have a hard time forcing their run heavy tempo on the Saints with Drew Brees playing unstoppably almost every drive. I don’t trust Chad Henne, in his 3^rd career start, to make the right decisions he’ll need to make to keep up with Drew Brees. This Saints defense also isn’t as bad as they’ve been in recent years. They’re actually quite good and extremely opportunistic. They make the most of Chad Henne’s mistakes as they did with Mark Sanchez a few weeks ago.

Arizona at NY Giants 21-31

The Giants, despite getting destroyed last week, are still an extremely talented team. The Cardinals are good, but not as good and not as complete. The Giants should be able to get back to their old ways and their winning ways this week against the Cardinals, who have to make the dreaded three time zone trip to the Meadowlands where it is expected to be cold. The Giants will win easily if it’s a conservative, icy game because of their running game which is about ten times better than the Cardinals’.

Philadelphia at Washington 28-10

The Redskins tend to play as well as their competition. That may be way they are 2-3 over their last five games, all of which should have been ridiculously easy games. Does that mean the Redskins will play like the talented Eagles are this week and surprise them with a win? I doubt it after the Eagles got embarrassed by losing to the Raiders last week. The Eagles need this win to help their fans forget this embarrassment and also to stay afloat in the competitive NFC.

 

 

Houston at Cincinnati 24-31

Both sides have good offenses, but Cincinnati’s is a little bit more complete and they have one of the most underrated stop units in the nation. The Texans’ defense is not good and this looks like the week Carson Palmer finally gets it going as he has not been his old self this season, coming out an elbow injury, despite the Bengals’ great record. The Bengals have more experience and are playing better in close games which this could easily be.

Detroit at Green Bay 10-37

Aaron Rodgers and Green Bay look like the next offense to have a huge game against the Lions. Rodgers has been under a lot of pressure this year, but Detroit, like St. Louis who Green Bay already destroyed, does not have a great a great pass rush. I’m not sure if the Lions can get more than the 2 sacks the Rams had against them Week 3. If that is the case, the Packers who have few weaknesses other than their offensive line, are going to be way too much for the Packers defense to handle and way too much for Matt Stafford, or whoever starts at quarterback for the Lions, to keep up with.

Baltimore at Minnesota 17-21 game of the week

The Ravens are going in the wrong direction with 2 straight losses. They are still a very complete team, but there offense isn’t quite as good as it looked during the first 3 weeks and their signature strong defense is not as strong as it has been in years past, finally allowing an 100 yard rusher last week against Cedric Benson. Adrian Peterson could make that two in a row this week, while Brett Favre does what he needs to do to win against Baltimore’s mediocre secondary. Joe Flacco will struggle as a young quarterback against Minnesota’s strong pass rush and strong secondary, while his running game struggles against the Williams’ wall.

NY Giants at New Orleans 31-28 upset pick

The Saints’ defense is making a lot of big plays this year with 10 interceptions and 10 sacks, but you can still move the ball on them a little, especially on the ground. The Giants running game is going to be by far the best run defense the Saints have faced this year, and they should have another huge game this week against the Saints ground defense. That will set up the Giants passing game, as it has all year, to do good things and put up points. The Giants strong defense, especially their strong pass defense, which is by far the best the Saints’ offense has faced this year, and running game, will allow Eli Manning to make safe throws and that will eliminate the bread and butter of the Saints’ defense, forcing turnovers. Most quarterbacks do not have those things supporting them and have to force unsafe throws to keep up with Drew Brees and the Saints offense. Eli will not.

Cleveland at Pittsburgh 6-31

Derek Anderson couldn’t complete more than two passes last week against Buffalo. How many do you think he’ll be able to complete this week against Pittsburgh. Negative 4?! It wouldn’t be outrageous to think that Anderson, with all the pressure that the Steelers bring, as well as their strong shutdown corners, has more picks than completions this week. I can’t see Cleveland winning this game.

Carolina at Tampa Bay 21-10

The Panthers are only 3 point favorites, at the moment, against an awful Tampa Bay team. I can’t imagine the Panthers not winning by more than a field goal against the Buccaneers this week. The Bucs are a mess and show it every week. The Panthers haven’t been great either, as it took a late comeback against the Redskins last week to prevent this team from falling to 0-4, but they have a lot of talent and they should get it together for the first time this week against the Bucs, especially on the ground.

Kansas City at Washington 10-17

The Redskins have a lot going wrong for them this year and now they may have lost left tackle Chris Samuels for what could be the season. Good think the Chiefs couldn’t get a sack even if the other team played with no offensive line. The Chiefs have 6 sacks in 5 games so far this season, good for 4^th worst in the league. That will allow Jason Campbell to hit his speed targets down field. The Chiefs gave up 250 yards to Miles Austin, a wide receiver, last week. The Redskins tend to play down to the level of their opponent, which is why I think you can actually blame some of their bad record on their easy schedule, so I think this could be a close game.

St. Louis at Jacksonville 7-31

The Jaguars have not been able to stop anyone through the air this year and nowhere is this more evident than the box score of their game last week. Matt Hasselbeck, playing with broken ribs, was 18-30 for 241 yards and 4 touchdowns last week against the Jags. The Jags are 29^th in the league in QB rating against. However, they will play Marc Bulger this week and I don’t think he’ll be able to exploit the Jags’ weak secondary, which allows all of the Jaguars other strengths to shine through. The Jaguars offense should have a great week this week with Mike Sims-Walker back from his suspension and a much easier defensive matchup.

Arizona at Seattle 20-13 upset pick

I think a lot of Matt Hasselbeck’s success in limited action this year has to do more with the fact that he’s played St. Louis and Jacksonville in the two complete games he’s played this year. He’ll have a bit of a tougher time against the Cardinals this week and therefore he’ll have a tougher time keeping up with Kurt Warner and the Cardinals’ offense. I think, up and down their lineup, the Cardinals are a bit of a more complete time than the Seahawks and I think that gives them a close win this week.

Philadelphia at Oakland 41-3 lock pick

The Raiders lost by 37 last week against the Giants and it could have easily been 51 points if it weren’t for what appears to be a blown call by the refs and who knows how many points it would have been if Eli Manning wasn’t taken out for rest in the 2^ndquarter. The Eagles are almost as complete of a team as the Giants and, despite the fact that this game is being played in Oakland, 3 time zones away from the Eagles home in Philly, I think the Eagles have a field day against this team. It would be very, very hard for me, and I think a lot of people agree with me, to pick JaMarcus Russell to win a game now considering how badly he’s been playing.

Tennessee at New England 21-27

The Titans are playing a lot better than their record would show. They’ve had a very tough schedule. However, they just haven’t looked good defending the pass the last two weeks. Its understandable to struggle against Peyton Manning, but allowing him to go 36-44 for 309 yards 3 touchdowns and 1 pick is bit much. And how do you explain allowing David Garrard to post a 126.3 QB rating when he hasn’t gone over 81.8 all season and had a QB rating that was 50 points less last week against Seattle. Tom Brady has only lost back-to-back regular season games once since 2002 so he’ll come out strong this week against the Titans after “losing” to the Broncos last week. I don’t see how they can contain him.

Buffalo at NY Jets 10-21

The Bills hit rock bottom last week, losing to a quarterback who completed two passes. The Jets defense looked very poor last week against the Dolphins, but they get a bit of a break this week against the Bills. I think they bounce back against a Bills offense that is struggling with something as simple as the snap count. They were flagged for 9 false starts last week against the Browns. That’s 45 yards in false start penalties. Demetrius Bell is the worst starting left tackle in the league in terms on combined penalties and sacks allowed. The Jets might not be playing well right now, but they get a bit of a break, though they can’t view it that way, against the Bills this week and should win easily.

Chicago at Atlanta 28-31

After the Falcons’ win last week, its hard to pick against them. Their defense is exceeding expectations and their offense is the complete package. Matt Ryan is a better quarterback than Jay Cutler. There is three things that cause Cutler to struggle, facing better quarterbacks, facing a lot of pressure to win in a big game and facing a lot of pressure from the opposing defense. Both make him force things and throw picks, which will destroy their entire offense. The Falcons have two and a half of those things going for them this week, as well as the momentum.

Denver at San Diego 14-21

I’ve been waiting for the Broncos to lose and I think this is where they finally do. I don’t hate them or think they are a bad team, but I think they’ve been very, very lucky this year and have had an easily schedule for the most part. Their luck will soon run out and their schedule is getting tougher. The Chargers have had the Broncos number the past few years, especially at home in San Diego, and the Chargers always seem to play better in big games against good teams, especially in must win games which this one pretty much is. The Chargers also have had an extra week to prepare for this game because of the bye. You can’t underestimate that fact. They’ll be ready.

 

 

 

Overall record: 43-21

Last week: 11-3

Upset picks: 4-5

Lock picks: 4-0

Cleveland at Buffalo 10-13

This game will be ugly, but the Bills have a little bit more offensive firepower. Marshawn Lynch and Fred Jackson are two good running backs and as long as Trent Edwards doesn’t sabotage the team, they should get enough points on Cleveland’s poor defense to win this game.

Pittsburgh at Detroit 34-10

Detroit’s better, but not that good. As they showed last week against the Bears, they are still a miss of a team. Pittsburgh has lost 2 close games this year. They shouldn’t have to worry here because this one won’t be close.

Dallas at Kansas City 34-17

You never know with the Cowboys, but they are clearly the superior and more talented team here so I think I feel safe picking them this week. The Chiefs’ defense is a mess.

Minnesota at St. Louis 34-10 lock pick

Let’s see, Brett Favre and Minnesota beat San Francisco who beat St. Louis by 35. Brett Favre and Adrian Peterson, assuming they are efficient and Favre doesn’t try to force throws like he did last year, should both have a field day on St. Louis’ defense and the Vikings will get an easy win here.

Oakland at NY Giants 6-33

Eli or no Eli, though I believe he’ll play, the Giants will win this one easily. The Raiders are a mess and will have to travel across three time zones to play this game, something that is tough for any team.

Tampa Bay at Philadelphia 6-27

The Eagles are at full strength with Donovan McNabb and Brian Westbrook back and should have a field day on Tampa Bay this week. This is a deep team that won against Kansas City without McNabb and Westbrook.

Washington at Carolina 13-20

The Panthers likely did a lot of regrouping on their bye week and should come out looking like a better team in this game. As for the Redskins, they are going the opposite direction. They lost to Detroit and almost lost to Tampa Bay and St. Louis.

Cincinnati at Baltimore 14-17

This is going to be a matchup between the Ravens’ defense and the Bengals’ offense as it always is, but this year, the Ravens have a good offense as well and the Bengals’ defense is playing well. I’ll give Baltimore the small edge because I think they are a little bit more of a complete team and because they are at home.

Atlanta at San Francisco 20-23

The 49ers are clicking right now and would be 4-0 if it weren’t for a loss to Brett Favre in the final seconds. Their defense should be able to contain Matt Ryan and company, who have to travel across 3 times zones.

Jacksonville at Seattle 27-20 upset pick

Matt Hasselbeck is expected to play in this one, but he’ll definitely be limited so I still like the Jaguars here on the road. Their offense is clicking right now which is a really good sign. The Seahawks’ defense has been poor.

Houston at Arizona 30-35

This is going to be a shootout because both teams have good offense, good quarterbacks, and less than stellar defenses. I expect Kurt Warner to win this one for the Cardinals in a shootout because he has better receivers and has had 2 weeks, because of the bye, to rest. Rest is huge for someone his age.

New England at Denver 27-10

Last week I said Denver was the worst 3-0 team in the history of the league. Now they are the worst 4-0 team in the history of the league. They have beaten Cleveland and Oakland who are awful. They beaten Cincinnati on a freak play and beat the Cowboys when Tony Romo forgot what down it was and thought he had another shot to tie the game.

Indianapolis at Tennessee 31-10

These two teams are going in opposite directions. The Titans haven’t won and Peyton Manning and the Colts haven’t lost. I don’t expect anything to be different this week. Peyton Manning should be able to destroy Tennessee’s weakened secondary. If you want to do some NFL Football Betting, against the spread, this would be the one to take. There aren’t a lot of good upsets, but the Colts line is -3.5. All they have to do is beat the Titans by 5 which is very, very possible.

NY Jets at Miami 21-20

The Dolphins could be ruining some momentum after destroying the Bills last week without Chad Pennington, but I don’t expect that continue this week. They won’t have that same psychological advantage this week as they aren’t seen as huge underdogs. In fact, the Football Odds are barely against them this week, unlike last week when Vegas saw them as awful after their 0-3 start and the loss of their quarterback. They won’t have a huge underdog psychological advantage this week.

 

 

 

Overall record: 30-18

Last week: 11-5

Upset picks: 3-4

Lock picks: 3-0

Sunday 

Detroit at Chicago 10-28

Detroit finally won a game, but they’re not a good team yet. Matt Stafford is still a rookie and the defense is still weak and Kevin Smith, their running back and best player, might not play. Matt Forte is going to run all over the Lions and the Lions won’t be able to keep up with him.

Cincinnati at Cleveland 27-6

Cleveland is one of the worst teams in the league. Carson Palmer and this Bengals’ offense should destroy Cleveland’s defense and Cincinnati’s defense shouldn’t be trouble stopping new Browns quarterback Derek Anderson.

Seattle at Indianapolis 13-28

The Seahawks don’t stand much of a chance against Peyton Manning and co with a healthy Matt Hasselbeck, but Hasselbeck is out this week again with a broken rib so Indy has a clear advantage.

NY Giants at Kansas City 31-10 lock pick

The Giants are clicking right now on all cylinders. The Chiefs…quite the opposite, especially defensively.

Baltimore at New England 28-24 upset pick

This game will be hyped as a matchup between New England’s offense and the Ravens’ defense. However, this is not the same New England offense at the moment, nor is it the same New England defense without Richard Seymour. Plus, the Ravens look like a complete team clicking on offense as well right not. The Ravens will get this win in Foxboro.

Tampa Bay at Washington 9-24

The Redskins seem to always play down to the level of the opponent and last week lost to the Lions. However, after their miserable performance last week, I think Tampa Bay is worse than Detroit so the ‘Skins won’t lose this one especially at home after that embarrassing loss last week.

Tennessee at Jacksonville 24-21

If trend holds, this is Jacksonville’s week to be bad. They were good week 1, bad week 2, and good last week. Kerry Collins might exactly have a good game against this awful Jacksonville secondary. This game also means more for the 0-3 Titans who are better than their record would suggest.

Oakland at Houston 10-17

Oakland won this game last year because Nmandi Ashmouga shut down Andre Johnson leaving Matt Schaub to find other options which he did not and I almost took the Raiders again here for that same reason, but they are just too bad for me to take and not laugh. It could be close though.

NY Jets at New Orleans 28-31

This game is going to by down to the Jets’ amazing defense Drew Brees’ amazing arm, but injuries have left the Jets weak in the secondary so I expect Brees to have a big game here in a close one.

Buffalo at Miami 17-21 upset pick

Chad Pennington won’t play in this game or any this season, but I think they’ll win this one. The Dolphins are going to work as hard as they can to win here and the Bills might overlook them. Its not like Chad Henne, a 2008 2^nd round pick, is a bad quarterback and they still have the wildcat. I pick the Dolphins in a close one.

St. Louis at San Francisco 10-28

I can’t see the Rams having enough to win this game. The Rams aren’t a good team and the Niners, even without Frank Gore, are tough and well coached.

Dallas at Denver 24-13

Denver is probably the worst 3-0 team in the history of the league. They beat Cincinnati in Carson Palmer’s return, where he was sure to be sluggish, and that was a game that, if it weren’t for some improbable late game heroics, they would have lost. Then they beat Cleveland and Oakland, who are awful. I don’t think the Cowboys will lose this one.

San Diego at Pittsburgh 21-27

LT is either not going to play or he’s going to play hurt which will put a lot of pressure on Phillip Rivers to beat a Pittsburgh team that is trying to make up for blowing two late game leads in two weeks.

Monday

Green Bay at Minnesota 24-28 game of the week

Ah, yes, Favre against his old team. You think he doesn’t know how to beat a defense he practiced against. He does. Aaron Rodgers is good and he’ll keep it close with his arm, but I’ll take the more well rounded Vikings. I’m not sold on the Packers O-line yet.

 

 

Overall record: 19-13

Last week: 8-8

Upset picks: 2-3

Lock picks: 2-0

Sunday

Washington at Detroit 17-10

Washington tends to play down to the level of their opponent and has had some close calls with lesser opponents in the past few years, but I don’t see them losing to the Lions.

Green Bay at St. Louis 31-7 lock pick

St. Louis doesn’t create the type of pressure on the quarterback that is needed to beat this Packers team. If you give Aaron Rodgers enough time, which he has yet to get this year, look out. Expect a big game from Rodgers and a blowout win for the Pack over the Rams.

San Francisco at Minnesota 16-24

San Francisco has been one of the feel good stories to start the season, but the Vikings have looked dominant to open the season, granted it was against weak opponents. I don’t think they’ll lose their home opener to the Niners.

Atlanta at New England 27-28 game of the week

Tom Brady has won a large percentage of his games in his career. A big reason for that is that he rarely loses two in a row, doing so only 3 times in his career and only once since 2002. That says a lot. Mentally he takes winning well. It won’t be easy, mostly because he doesn’t have the same defense supporting him, but I expect Brady to bounce back and win here at home.

Tennessee at NY Jets 10-17

The Jets defense is for real. The Titans also play a conservative style of football and they’ll keep it close, but expect the efficient Jets to win this one at home.

Kansas City at Philadelphia 10-23

Donovan McNabb or no Donovan McNabb the Eagles aren’t going to lose to a team like the Chiefs at home.

NY Giants at Tampa Bay 31-20

Tampa Bay has one of the worst defenses in the league this year. This will allow Eli and the passing game to get it going and when that happens, this team is hard to beat.

Cleveland at Baltimore 9-23

The Ravens defense has been giving up more points than they’re used to this year, but the Browns have simply been awful. Expect the Ravens to be able to play their style against the Browns and win this one at home.

Jacksonville at Houston 27-35

Jacksonville’s defense has been way worse than I projected it to be, or maybe its just Kurt Warner, but still, the Texans are going to have an easy time carrying over momentum from last week and that’s going to be enough for them to win as I don’t think the Jags can outscore the Texans.

New Orleans at Buffalo 38-21

Drew Brees gets another easy defensive matchup here. I really don’t expect Trent Edwards will be able to keep up with him.

Chicago at Seattle 20-13

The Seahawks status as a playoff team is based on Matt Hasselbeck being healthy. He’s not playing this week and all of a sudden, this is a team that looks like the one that went 4-12 last year. The Bears will win here.

Miami at San Diego 10-27

Teams flying across 3 times zones have a hard time winning. Add that to the fact that the Chargers are more talented than the Dolphins and you get a Chargers win.

Pittsburgh at Cincinnati 24-17

Cincinnati has improved this season, but the Steelers are still the Steelers. They are still the team that the Bengals can’t beat.

Denver at Oakland 12-14

When I saw this game on the schedule I said holy crap either the Kyle Orton and the Broncos will start 3-0 or the Raiders will have a winning record! I’m pretty sure the world is about to end. Or maybe they’ll tie. I’ll give the edge to the Raiders at home.

Indianapolis at Arizona 34-31 upset pick (yes, for some reason Vegas has the Colts as favorites)

I’m looking forward to this shootout, but I’ll take Peyton Manning over Kurt Warner in this one. Plus, Warner still has that hip injury, even if he did look flawless last week.

Monday

Carolina at Dallas 34-28 upset pick

Both teams have their issues, but the Panthers are going to be able to get it done on the ground and, barring another Jake Delhomme meltdown, should win here.

 

 

Overall record: 11-5

Upset picks: 0-2

Lock picks: 1-0 

Sunday

New England at NY Jets 28-21 game of the week

Mark Sanchez looked great in his debut, but Tom Brady is on another level. In his first game back from major surgery he made about 2 or 3 bad throws all night. He should only get better as the season goes on and as he gets more and more uncomfortable with his legs and his new options. The Jets could keep it close, but the Pats edge out a victory here.

New Orleans at Philadelphia 34-21

Regardless of who starts at quarterback for the Eagles, whether Kevin Kolb, Jeff Garcia, or a less than 100% percent Donovan McNabb, the Eagles offense is going to have a hard time keeping up with Drew Brees, even though he faces a tougher defensive matchup this week.

St. Louis at Washington 10-27

The Rams aren’t very good, so the Redskins are going to be able to come out, play their game and win here at home.

Cincinnati at Green Bay 27-34

The Bengals aren’t as bad as they looked week 1 against the Broncos, but the Packers look like the complete package this year, with a stronger defense so its another 0-2 start for the Bengals.

Minnesota at Detroit 31-10 lock pick

If Brett Favre can continue to stay out of Adrian Peterson’s way, the Vikings are going to be able to beat a lot of teams, especially the Lions, who looked awful on defense against the Lions.

Houston at Tennessee 20-17 upset pick

I still like Houston as a bit of a sleeper this year so, unless Matt Schaub gets hurt between now and game time, I expect the Texans to bounce against a team they had good success against last year.

Oakland at Kansas City 10-13

This is going to be a sloppy game overall, but the Chiefs should have any offensive firepower, even if Cassel doesn’t play, to beat the Raiders in Kansas City.

Carolina at Atlanta 28-24 upset pick

With the Panthers’ running game, all Jake Delhomme has to do is not sabotage his team. However, in his last 2 games he has 11 turnovers. I don’t expect the same this week and I expect the Panthers ground game to run all over the Falcons weak defense, but one more bad week and it’ll be time for both me and the Panthers to stop trusting Delhomme and his large contract to do his job.

Arizona at Jacksonville 21-24

Kurt Warner may be more injured than most believed. Warner looked awful against a 49ers defense that has holes in the secondary. Warner has said of the hip injury that it only hurts “when he moves.” Even with all those weapons around him, I find it hard to believe that Arizona can win in Jacksonville.

Tampa Bay at Buffalo 17-21

Trent Edwards showed a lot of poise in his loss to New England and I think that carries over to this game, where he can exploit a miserable Tampa Bay defense.

Seattle at San Francisco 28-21

The 49ers won last week, though it was against an injured Kurt Warner. The Seahawks looked dominant last week, but it was against arguably the worst team in the league. I am going to go with history and take the Seahawks here.

Baltimore at San Diego 21-24

Teams traveling across the country often struggle and the Chargers often play to the level of their opponents. They should be able to edge out a close conservative win over a talented Ravens squad.

Pittsburgh at Chicago 24-13

Jay Cutler looked awful and unpoised against the Packers defense. Even without Troy Polamalu, this Steelers defense is amazing and should force bad decisions from Cutler all night.

Cleveland at Denver 14-17

Denver shouldn’t have won last week, but I do think they are good enough to beat this miserable Cleveland squad.

NY Giants at Dallas 24-20 upset pick

Tony Romo plays a real defense this week so I don’t think he’ll fare as well. Meanwhile, the Giants conservative offense should be able to edge them out a close victory against the Cowboys.

Monday

Indianapolis at Miami 34-17

Miami secondary meet Peyton Manning. Have fun. I have said it all preseason, this secondary and this defense as a whole did not play a team as good offensively as the Colts all last year and they will get destroyed in this one.

 

 

Thursday

Tennessee at Pittsburgh 10-28

Tennessee will miss Albert Haynesworth more than they know. The Steelers are better than the Titans in all aspects on the game, with the exception of on the ground, and will stop the Titans offense dead in its tracks.

Sunday

Miami at Atlanta 14-24

Neither of these teams will have as good of a season this year as they had last year, but I like Atlanta’s offensive balance and quarterback play to win them the game here.

Denver at Cincinnati 10-31

Assuming Carson Palmer’s healthy, he should have a field day on this awful Denver defense. Meanwhile, Cincinnati’s underrated defense will keep Kyle Orton and Denver’s conservative offense, which could be without running back Knowshon Moreno, in check throughout the game.

Minnesota at Cleveland 21-13

Cleveland has too many defensive problems to stop Minnesota’s suddenly balanced offensive. Both Brett Favre and Adrian Peterson will have efficient games here and Favre wins his first game as a Viking over his former coach, Eric Mangini.

Jacksonville at Indianapolis 20-27

Jacksonville improved a lot in the off season, but the Colts are still the Colts and they are red hot going into the season. Peyton Manning hasn’t missed a beat in the preseason despite losing coach Tony Dungy.

Detroit at New Orleans 9-31

Detroit improved in the off season, but they still have a ways to go to pull off an upset like this. Matt Stafford will get a rude welcome to the NFL here, assuming he’s the week 1 starter.

Dallas at Tampa Bay 20-14

Dallas looks in rhythm in the offseason and will go into Tampa Bay and beat the Bucs, who could be without top wide receiver Antonio Bryant for this game.

Philadelphia at Carolina 20-23 upset pick

Philadelphia has a good squad on the field this year, but they aren’t known for starting hot so I don’t think they’ll be able to go into Carolina and beat an equally good team on their home turf.

Kansas City at Baltimore 10-23

Matt Cassel is going to learn two things in this game. One, how much he’ll miss the Patriots’ wide receivers and offensive line. Two, how good the Ravens’ defense is. Cassel is in way over his head in this game and that will allow the Ravens to win the game the way they do best, with their improved conservative offense.

NY Jets at Houston 10-31

I don’t care if Mark Sanchez is the next Joe Namath. Picking a rookie quarterback on the road in his first start is a tactic that will lose you money.

Washington at NY Giants 21-24

These two teams are both talented, but the Giants defense will give Jason Campbell trouble and give the Giants the home victory here.

San Francisco at Arizona 13-27

San Francisco needs to improve all around in order to beat a team like the Cardinals on their home turf, where they were extremely good last season. Kurt Warner, even if not 100%, should lead the team to victory here. The Cardinals are also much improved on the ground.

St. Louis at Seattle 10-24

Matt Hasselbeck wins his first start since returning from injury over the lowly Rams, on his home field.

Chicago at Green Bay 24-21 Game of the week, upset pick

Cutler and Rodgers are similar quarterbacks in their skill set, but Cutler has a better defensive supporting him. I take the Bears and their defense in a squeaker over the division rival Packers.

Monday

Buffalo at New England 10-34 Lock Pick

I can’t even remember the last time the Bills beat Tom Brady. As long as Brady plays, he should have an easy victory in his regular season return. The Pats are at home and the Bills could be without Terrell Owens, who has an injured toe.

San Diego at Oakland 28-7

The Chargers, normally known for starting slow, get an easy victory, extending their winning streak in this “rivalry,” over JaMarcus Russell and the lowly Raiders.

Last year

Overall: 153-102-1 (.600)

Upset picks: 21-27 (.438)

Lock picks: 14-3 (.824)