Debate the Denver Broncos’ Offseason Possibilities in The Football Fan Forum
2010 Preview:
I don’t like Denver this year and I’ll tell you why. I know what you’re thinking, didn’t you predict they’d be bad last year and then they proved you wrong and even when they were playing well to begin the year, you still didn’t think it was a good team? Most of that is true, except they didn’t prove me wrong and they didn’t play well to begin the year.
They started out 6-0, one of those wins was on a freak catch that bounced off a defender, a catch that I’m willing to bet Brandon Stokley couldn’t make again in a game 95 times out of 100. Another was in overtime, a win that, if the coin had flipped the other way to start the overtime, they could have easily lost. The Broncos won on a long field goal after winning the coin flip, while Tom Brady had to sit on the sideline and watch. They also beat Dallas by a field goal, which is kind of an impressive win, but considering the Cowboys weren’t playing well at the time, and it was only a field goal, I don’t think it’s as impressive as it sounds when people say they beat the division winning Cowboys. They beat Cleveland and Oakland, two teams that ended 5-11. Their most impressive win was against San Diego and when I say San Diego, I mean a 2-2 Chargers team that struggled out of the gate, not the 13-3 one that ended the season very strongly and destroyed Denver in a rematch.
Now, of course, if they had continued to play well after that, then I would have seen them as legitimate. But the fact that they went 2-8 after their 6-0 start really shows that they weren’t as good as their record showed to start the year and adds a lot of life to the word “fluke” I used to describe some of their early wins. They could have easily been 4-2 or 3-3 to start the year last year, if a coin had flipped the other way or Stokley hadn’t made that catch or they had caught Dallas or San Diego at their best.
This year, I actually think they’ll be worse. Brandon Marshall was their top deep threat last year. Without him, this is a short throw offense only. We saw them try to be a short throw offense only, without Marshall week 17 last year, and they got destroyed by the lowly Chiefs. They picked off Orton three times on short throws, because the Broncos were becoming extremely predictable. Two of those picks were returned for scores, fueling a 44-24 Chiefs win.
Another thing with the short throw offense, it limits your running game because the defense can come out in an eight man box and still effectively guard the pass. Kyle Orton is simply not as good of a quarterback as Marshall made him look last year and his receiving corps is not going to help him out this year much. His top 4 receivers are two rookies, a player in Eddie Royal who struggled mightily last year, and a journeyman in Jabar Gaffney. His tight end is an undrafted 2nd year player out of Central Arkansas. They won’t help him as much as he needs. Also, remember Ryan Clady’s injury. That hurts Kyle Orton a lot as well. Unless Brady Quinn or Tim Tebow win the job and become a top 15 quarterback, this is not a good offensive bunch, and I can’t see Tebow doing that this year or Quinn doing that ever.
Defensively, they’re improved this year, but the loss of Mike Nolan as defensive coordinator hurts. Their age in the secondary hurts as well as they are projected to start 4 defensive backs over the age of 30 again. We saw last year how those guys tired out late in the season. That could happen this year, only worse. Justin Bannan and Jarvis Green are solid players and decent signings but shouldn’t be anything more than strong backups on a playoff team (which is were they were just that last year). Jamal Williams is also a solid player, but he’s getting up there in age. Their front 3 will be better this year, but still not as good as they need it to be. The loss of Andra Davis at middle linebacker also hurts their front 7 and I don’t think Elvis Dumervil can quite repeat what he did last year.
Overall, their offense is not going to be good and their defense is not going to be anywhere near good enough to make up for their offense’s shortcomings. Broncos fans can hate me all they want (and they do, trust me), but I am not a believer in this team this year.
Projection: 4-12 4th in AFC West
Power Ranking: 29
Last season: 8-8
Draft:
#22 WR Demaryius Thomas (Georgia Tech)
Thomas fills a need, but he’s not a very good player. He doesn’t run routes and he has shaky hands. He also is going to struggle to gain seperation at the next level and he is coming off of a foot injury. He was decently productive last year, but Danario Alexander was way more productive in a very similar offense (screen/short pass heavy) to Thomas and Alexander didn’t even get drafted. Neither of those guys have had experience running NFL caliber routes. I’m not saying they should have drafted Alexander here, but it’s pretty bad when you use a 1st round pick on a guy who, by all indications, is, at the very least, not much better than a guy who wasn’t drafted.
Grade: D
#25 QB Tim Tebow (Florida)
This is an interesting pick. I love Tebow and I think he can be a solid quarterback in the NFL. I think Tebow has to be very pleased with going to the Broncos. He won’t have to contribute right away. Josh McDaniels, as moronic of a drafter as he is, is good with quarterbacks. Tebow also fits the shotgun style offense the Broncos run. However, I can’t give them a great grade considering they traded up, losing a ton of value according to the NFL Draft Trade Value Chart in the process, to take Tebow over Jimmy Clausen. Plus, I can’t say quarterback was a huge need for the Broncos considering they already have Kyle Orton and Brady Quinn on the roster and their run defense is still horrible.
Grade: B+
#45 OT Zane Beadles (Utah)
Beadles is a pretty big reach here and I can’t say he fills a huge need. Beadles can play some guard, but guard isn’t a big need for them either, especially not here. You can find solid guards in the 4th or 5th round, if the Broncos wanted some depth behind Hochstein and Kuper.
Grade: D
#80 C JD Walton (Baylor)
Walton is the top center in this draft class in my mind and a decent value in the 3rd round and he does fill a need, but the Broncos still have not addressed the front 7, which was horrible last year. They got some solid front 7 players in free agency, but Jamal Williams is getting up there in age and both Jarvis Green and Justin Bannan shouldn’t be anything more than solid backups on good teams (that’s why they both were last year). Walton doesn’t have the positional value you’d like out of this pick considering how much help the Broncos need on the defensive line.
Grade: B
#87 WR Eric Decker (Minnesota)
I would have liked to have seen them take a front 7 player here, but after they traded Brandon Marshall, wide receiver became their biggest need and taking Thomas in the first doesn’t fill that need completely. Decker is a better receiver than Thomas in my mind and a great value in the 3rd round and if Thomas somehow pans out, extremely doubtful, Decker can be a solid #2.
Grade: A
#137 CB Perrish Cox (Oklahoma State)
Cox is a great value as a late 3rd round prospect in the 5th, but cornerback was the one defensive position they didn’t need to address. They have two solid starters in Champ Bailey and Andre Goodman and they traded this year’s first round pick for Alphonso Smith last year. What are they going to do about the front 7? They couldn’t stop anyone on the ground last year, especially late.
Grade: C
#183 C Eric Olsen (Notre Dame)
Huh? Josh McDaniels really hates positional value doesn’t he. Olsen is a solid value, but this is the 2nd center this have taken in this draft. I know it was a need, but two? Considering how low of a value the center position is and how much they need young talent in the front 7, this was pretty stupid.
Grade: F
#225 CB Syd’Quan Thompson (California)
Still not a front 7 player, but Thompson is a huge steal here and can play the role of nickelback in the future for this team, assuming one of Perrish Cox and Alphonso Smith don’t pan out.
Grade: B+
#232 RLB Jammie Kirlew (Indiana)
Finally a front 7 player, but rush linebacker was their least needed position of their front 7 needs. Also, Kirlew should not have been drafted because I don’t think he’s very good, and he doesn’t fit their 3-4 scheme at all. He’s basically a really, really, really poor man’s version of Robert Ayers.
Grade: D
Overall:
When Josh McDaniels took over this team, they were coming off of a season in which they were awful against the run. Since then, he has drafted two front 7 players, both of which are rush linebackers, and both of which don’t fit the scheme. This year, he made a huge reach in the 2nd round, drafted 2 centers, took a player who isn’t first round caliber at all in the first, and took two more cornerbacks. Tebow makes some sense and could be their quarterback of the future and Decker was a solid value in the 3rd round, but other than that, there wasn’t a lot to like. Overall, this team isn’t much better, if any better from this draft and considering they came in with two 2nd rounders, that’s pretty bad.
Grade: D
Key undrafted free agents
OT Chris Marinelli (Stanford)
RB Toney Baker (NC State)
TE Nathan Overbay (Eastern Washington)
RB Chris Brown (Oklahoma)
S Kyle McCarthy (Notre Dame)
TE Riar Greer (Colorado)
WR Alric Arnett (West Virginia)
Positions of need:
Nose Tackle:
They played Ronald Fields, a 311 pound former backup 3-4 defensive end as their primary nose tackle this year. The only reason they were better this season against the run is because, well, it was hard to be worse than they were in 2008 and/or Mike Nolan is a defensive genius. However, better doesn’t necessarily mean good. They were still really bad against the run, especially late in the season. A real nose tackle could fix that.
Signed Jamal Williams
Middle Linebacker:
Their top middle linebacker this year was Andra Davis, a former Browns castoff, and somehow, he had a good year. I’m guessing Mike Nolan had something to do with that and now Nolan is in Miami. Davis is also 30 and had one year left on his contract so they’ll need a longterm replacement next to DJ Williams in the middle otherwise they will suck again against the run. Rolando McClain is going to be very tempting at 11.
Signed Akin Ayodele, Traded for Joe Mays
3-4 Defensive End:
I may not have mentioned this before, but the Broncos sucked against the run late last season, well, really for more of the last few years. Even if, by some miracle, Robert Ayers bulks up enough to play the position longterm in the future, they would still need one more end.
Signed Jarvis Green, Justin Bannan
Rush Linebacker:
In case you could not tell, I was not a fan of the Broncos front 7 last year as shown by the fact that I listed every single 3-4 front 7 position as a need. Rush Linebacker will become even more of a need if Elvis Dumervil follows Mike Nolan to Miami. He had 17 of their 39 sacks last year. Even if Dumervil stays, they need to get someone opposite him. If it weren’t for Josh McDaniels stupidly hating Brandon Marshall and Tony Scheffler, I would just tell the Broncos to go with the best available 3-4 front 7 player for the first 4-5 rounds. If it weren’t for Josh McDaniels being an inept drafter, he might actually do that. Most likely he’ll just draft 17 defensive backs.
Wide Receiver:
As bad as their defense is, if they stupidly trade Brandon Marshall, this becomes need #1. In the one game they tried to play without Brandon Marshall, they got destroyed by the Chiefs because all Kyle Orton could do was attempt short throws to receivers who couldn’t do anything after the catch. Why do you think Brandon Marshall caught 22 passes in one game and the team still lost? They have nothing after him at receiver. If they let Marshall go and don’t replace him, their entire offense will look like it did week 17 last year for the entirety of the 2010 season. Dez Bryant has to be their pick at 11 if Marshall is traded. Hopefully McDaniels would get at least a 1st rounder in return for Marshall if he did trade him because then they could use that on defense.
Drafted Demaryius Thomas (#22), Drafted Eric Decker (#87)
Offensive Guard:
The top 4 guys on their depth chart at guard are all free agents. Hopefully they resign one and get another through free agency, but they may be forced to take one late in the draft. Guard doesn’t have a huge positional value which means McDaniels could target one in the first 3 rounds.
Tight End:
Tony Scheffler is also on Josh McDaniels’ naughty list for whatever reason and I doubt he’ll be brought back as a restricted free agent this offseason. Robert Quinn, their 2nd round pick in 2009, had a grand total of 0 catches this year. I know he was drafted as a blocker, but still, they could have drafted him as a blocker in the 7th round. Anyway, with both Quinn and Daniel Graham being blockers, they’ll need a pass catching tight end, maybe a guy like Garrett Graham in the 5th round. Or maybe they’ll just take another blocker like Colin Peek.
Quarterback:
Kyle Orton is a restricted free agent this offseason which means Josh McDaniels could have to part with his neck bearded lover. No worries, McDaniels can just draft Colt McCoy in the 3rd. Colt McCoy can do all of the things Kyle Orton can do. He can throw 5-10 yard passes out of shotgun, he can, wait, whoops, that’s it. He can even grow a neck beard too.
Traded for Brady Quinn, Drafted Tim Tebow (#25)
Free agents:
QB Kyle Orton (restricted)- resigned 1 year
QB Chris Simms- signed with Titans
QB Tom Brandstater
RB LaMont Jordan
RB Chris Brown
RB Kolby Smith
WR Brandon Marshall (restricted)- traded to Dolphins
TE Tony Scheffler (restricted)- resigned 1 year 1.1 million
OT Maurice Williams
G Ben Hamilton- signed with Seahawks 1 year
G Russ Hochstein
G Chris Kuper (restricted)- 1 year 2.5 million
C Casey Wiegmann- signed with Chiefs 1 year
NT J’Vonne Parker
3-4 DE Le’Kevin Smith- resigned
3-4 DE Kenny Peterson
RLB Elvis Dumervil (restricted)- resigned 6 years 61.5 million 41 million guaranteed
MLB Nick Greisen- resigned
MLB Andra Davis- signed with Bills 2 years
CB Ty Law
S Josh Barrett (restricted)- resigned 1 year
K Matt Prater (restricted)- resigned
Offseason moves:
Broncos sign RB LenDale White
Broncos waive RB Kolby Smith
Broncos acquire MLB Joe Mays from Eagles for RB J.J. Arrington and 2012 conditional pick
Broncos extend RLB Elvis Dumervil
Broncos claim RB Kolby Smith
Broncos re-sign RLB Elvis Dumervil
Broncos cut OT Maurice Williams
Broncos waive QB Tom Brandstater
Broncos sign FB Kyle Eckel
Broncos claim MLB Bruce Davis
Broncos announce retirement of G Matt McChesney
Broncos sign OT Maurice Williams
Broncos waive RB Chris Brown
Broncos re-sign MLB Nick Greisen
Broncos sign MLB Akin Ayodele
Broncos trade Tony Scheffler (Detroit) and a 7th rounder (Detroit) for a 5th rounder (Philadelphia)
Broncos re-sign QB Kyle Orton
Broncos re-sign TE Tony Scheffler
Broncos trade WR Brandon Marshall to Dolphins for 2010 2nd-rounder and 2011 2nd-rounder
Broncos re-sign WR Brandon Marshall
Broncos re-sign G Chris Kuper
Broncos re-sign S Josh Barrett
Broncos cut QB Chris Simms
Broncos cut ILB Andra Davis
Broncos cut NT J’Vonne Parker
Broncos re-sign 3-4 DE Le Kevin Smith
Broncos cut 3-4 DE Kenny Peterson
Broncos sign NT Jamal Williams
Broncos sign 3-4 DE Jarvis Green
Broncos re-sign K Matt Prater
Broncos sign CB Nate Jones
Broncos sign 3-4 DE Justin Bannan
Broncos re-sign G Russ Hochstein
Broncos sign RB J.J. Arrington
Broncos tender WR Brandon Marshall
Broncos tender RLB Elvis Dumervil
Broncos tender QB Kyle Orton
Broncos tender G Chris Kuper
Broncos tender TE Tony Scheffler
Broncos cut RB LaMont Jordan
Broncos cut C Casey Wiegmann
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