2010 Preview:
I wouldn’t be surprised if the Detroit Lions went 2-14 or 3-13 again. I wouldn’t be surprised if they won 5-7 games, I wouldn’t be too surprised if they won 8 or 9. It almost entirely will depend on Matt Stafford. Stafford wasn’t great as a rookie and the team went 2-14. That’s excusable though. He was a rookie. Even Peyton Manning struggled as a rookie. If Stafford rebounds this year and starts playing like a top 15 quarterback and the #1 pick he was, this team could be pretty good.
If 4th round pick Jason Fox can step up and become the elite blindside protector this team has lacked for years, that will only help Stafford’s cause. As will a full season of Calvin Johnson, the addition of Rob Sims to their improving, but currently still mediocre, offensive front. Having a running back like Jahvid Best also helps, as does an improved defense. There’s a good chance he becomes one of the top 15 quarterbacks in the league this year and that could get them 6-8 wins.
Of course other players need to step up on this team for them to reach their full potential for this year (8 or 9 wins). Their defensive line is banking heavily on a strong rookie season from Ndamukong Suh, a bounce back year from Kyle Vanden Bosch and Corey Williams, and a breakout year from Cliff Avril. If everything goes right there, that’ll certainly help. This team ranked 21st in the league in stopping the run last year (YPA), they could certainly be middle of the pack this year.
They’ll also be counting on a big year from 2nd year players DeAndre Levy and Zach Follett at linebacker. Their secondary remains their biggest hole, but if Amari Spievey can step up as a rookie, unlikely because rookie defensive backs tend to struggle, that’ll help their cause. A lot of things have to go right for this team to win 8 or 9 games, and for that reason I don’t feel comfortable projecting this team to do so, but a lot of things have to go wrong (er, the same) for them to be as bad as they were last year. Even if Matt Stafford struggles as much as he did last year, I’ll have to say these off season additions add an extra win to their total. I’ll put my projection somewhere in the middle of their downside (2 or 3 wins) and their upside (8 or 9 wins).
Projection: 6-10 4th in NFC North
Power Ranking: 24
Last Season: 2-14
Draft:
#2 DT Ndamukong Suh (Nebraska)
A left tackle like Russell Okung who is ready to come in right away and protect Matt Stafford’s blindside would have been perfect here. Their offensive line has been one of the worst in the league since as long as I can remember and all they have done to fix the line that has given up 40-50 sacks in each of the last 3 years is add a guard, Rob Sims. Okung would have been good for Stafford’s health longterm, his development as he attempts to avoid David Carr syndrome, and would have allowed Stafford to fully utilize his cannon arm to connect with one of the best deep threats in the game, Calvin Johnson. This is not a bad pick because Suh is a bad player. This is a bad pick because it doesn’t help the thing that will win the most games for them, their passing game.
Grade: C+
#30 RB Jahvid Best (California)
I actually like Best as a player which I why it’s hard for my to bash this pick. I had Best as my #1 RB. However, he doesn’t get Matt Stafford any more time in the pocket or help their passing game in the way that taking a left tackle could have. To make matters worse, they traded up to get him.
Grade: C+
#65 CB Amari Spievey (Iowa)
It’s hard to bash a pick that’s a great fit for their scheme and fills a huge need at cornerback, but I will, only slightly, because they could have taken a guy like Bruce Campbell, Jason Fox, or Jared Veldheer to play left tackle.
Grade: A-
#128 OT Jason Fox (Miami)
Best pick of the night for them. This actually makes all of their other BPA picks so much better. Fox has 2nd round talent and can develop into a good blindside protector for Matt Stafford and if he does, I think they are draft day winners given all of the talented players they were able to get with their first 3 picks. If not, then this team is going to regret not taking Okung 2nd. Still, I have to give them mad props for getting a huge value at a position of huge need and with one 4th round pick, turning me from a hater of their draft to a lover of their draft.
Grade: A
#213 DE Willie Young (NC State)
Yet another steal in terms of talent, Young is undersized, but Jim Schwartz has had success as a defensive coordinator with undersized players before and Young will, at the very least, be a very solid nickel rusher and, in this pass heavy league, that’s a great value in the 7th round.
Grade: A
#255 WR Tim Toone (Weber State)
Hard to bash this pick because it was the last in the draft and I’ve never actually heard of the player, but Toone was statistically very good at Weber State, though he is a bit undersized and doesn’t fill a huge need (front 7 depth).
Grade: C-
Overall:
There are some ugly grades on their report card, but if Jason Fox pans out, as a whole, this draft class could be one of, if not the strongest of this year. This could be the draft that starts the Lions as a true playoff contender in the future. On that potential, I have to give them a solid grade.
Grade: B+
Key undrafted free agents:
OLB Ryan Stamper (Florida)
WR Mike Moore (Georgia)
FB Matt Clapp (Oklahoma)
TE Richard Dickson (LSU)
Positions of need:
Offensive Tackle:
Despite the fact that head coach Jim Schwartz said he deserved a few Pro Bowl votes, Jeff Backus actually was one of the worst left tackles in the league this year in terms of sacks allowed. Lions fans can only hope that Schwartz realizes this and decides to target a left tackle early in the draft. Matt Stafford sustained both a knee and a shoulder injury as a rookie because of all the hits he took and we’ve seen what too many sacks early in a players career can do, David Carr, Joey Harrington, or even what too many sacks late in a players career can do, Marc Bulger, Matt Hasselbeck. Backus would be a decent left guard, in fact, he could possibly be an above average left guard, but they would need a new left tackle. If they draft one early, they can shift Backus to guard and upgrade two offensive line positions at once.
Drafted Jason Fox (#128)
Defensive End:
The Lions, as a team, had 26 sacks last year and no player had more than 5.5. Cliff Avril had 5.5, but he doesn’t have the size to be an every down defensive end, so, if they secure a left tackle early, they’ll want to shift their focus on their pass rush. If the Rams draft Jimmy Clausen first and Ndamukong Suh falls to the Lions at 2, they can draft him and that would help their pass rush as well, but they need a true #1 defensive end. After having a quarterback and protecting him, getting to the opponents quarterbacks is the most important thing in the NFL. An elite pass rusher will help their struggling secondary a lot.
Signed Kyle Vanden Bosch, Drafted Willie Young (#213)
Cornerback:
Speaking of struggling secondary, the Lions pass defense was once again one of the worst in the league last year and it will continue to be that why until they secure an elite #1 cornerback. They have more important needs, but they can’t go into next year with this years group of cornerbacks and expect to make the playoffs.
Traded for Chris Houston, Signed Jonathan Wade, Drafted Amari Spievey (#66), Signed Dre Bly
Defensive Tackle:
Drafting Sammie Lee Hill in the middle rounds last year was a smart move and he looks like someone who will be a part of their defensive tackle rotation for a long time. Now they need a pass rushing defensive tackle that can compliment him inside. There’s a good chance that they are able to get Ndamukong Suh early, but Gerald McCoy could also be on their radar at 2 if they can’t get Suh, though I think taking any defensive tackle, other than Suh, over a left tackle, at 2, would be a mistake.
Traded for Corey Williams, Drafted Ndamukong Suh (#2)
Safety:
When you are as bad against the pass as the Lions were in 2009, you can’t blame it all on the cornerbacks. Their safeties need to take some of the blame as well, though the safety position ranks below the cornerback position in terms of positional value.
Signed CC (Can’t Cover) Brown
Offensive Guard:
The Lions don’t just need one upgrade on their offensive line, they need multiple. Drafting a left tackle and moving Backus to guard would be 2, but they still would need a major upgrade at right guard. Their interior offensive lineman were so bad last year that Kevin Smith simply couldn’t get anywhere without a big lineman destroying him.
Traded for Rob Sims
Running Back:
Speaking of Kevin Smith, he might not be ready for the 2010 season with an ACL tear, but even if he isn’t, they could use one more running back. This is now a two running back league. Aaron Brown did not prove himself in his limited opportunities last year and they really lack a breakaway speed threat either way.
Drafted Jahvid Best (#30)
Wide Receiver:
Calvin Johnson is a freak, but after him they don’t have much at wide receiver. Getting Matt Stafford someone else to throw to can only help him, but they do have other more important needs.
Signed Nate Burleson, Drafted Tim Toone (#255)
Free Agency:
QB Daunte Culpepper
RB Cedric Peerman (exclusive rights)- resigned 1 year
WR Adam Jennings (restricted)
WR Marko Mitchell- Signed with Vikings
TE Will Heller- resigned with Lions 3 years
TE Casey Fitzsimmons- retired
TE Jake Nordin (exclusive rights)- tendered
TE John Madsen
OT Jon Jansen- resigned with Lions 1 year 850K
OT Corey Hilliard (exclusive rights)- tendered
G Daniel Loper
G Damien Cook
G Manuel Ramirez (restricted)- resigned 1 year 1.1 million
C Dylan Gandy (restricted)- resigned 1 year 1.1 million
DE DeWayne White
DE Jason Hunter (restricted)- resigned 1 year 1.7 million
DE Jared DeVries- resigned 1 year 1.7 million
DE Copeland Bryan (restricted)- resigned
OLB Zach Follett (exclusive rights)- tendered
MLB Larry Foote- signed with Steelers 3 years 9 million
MLB Cody Spencer (restricted)
CB Phillip Buchanan- signed with Redskins 1 year 1.5 million
CB Will James- signed with 49ers 1 year
CB Anthony Henry
CB Kevin Hobbs
CB DeAngelo Smith (exclusive rights)- resigned 1 year
CB Brian Witherspoon
S Daniel Bullocks
S Ko Simpson (restricted)- resigned 1 year 1.1 million
S Kalvin Pearson
Offseason moves:
Lions cut S Marquand Manuel
Lions sign OLB Isaiah Ekejiuba
Lions cut S Daniel Bullocks
Lions sign CB Dre’ Bly
Lions waive WR Marko Mitchell
Lions waive TE John Madsen
Lions sign TE John Madsen
Lions sign S C.C. Brown
Lions claim WR Marko Mitchell
Lions re-sign S Daniel Bullocks
Lions claim G Trevor Canfield
Lions cut CB Kevin Hobbs
Lions cut S Kalvin Pearson
Lions waive CB Brian Witherspoon
Lions cut G Daniel Loper
Lions re-sign C Dylan Gandy
Lions announce retirement of TE Casey FitzSimmons
Lions re-sign DE Jared DeVries
Lions re-sign S Ko Simpson
Lions trade DE Robert Henderson to Seahawks for 2010 7th-rounder
Lions acquire G Rob Sims from Seahawks for a 2010 5th-rounder
Lions re-sign G Manuel Ramirez
Lions re-sign G Daniel Loper
Lions re-sign DE Jason Hunter
Lions re-sign CB Kevin Hobbs
Lions re-sign RB Cedric Peerman
Lions re-sign DE Copeland Bryan
Lions re-sign CB DeAngelo Smith
Lions acquire QB Shaun Hill from 49ers for 2011 7th-rounder
Lions acquire CB Chris Houston from Falcons for 2010 6th-rounder and exchange of 2010 5th-rounders
Lions sign CB Jonathan Wade
Lions sign WR Brian Clark
Lions cut DE Dewayne White
Lions re-sign TE Will Heller
Lions acquire DT Corey Williams and 2010 7th-rounder from Browns for 2010 5th-rounder
Lions cut DT Grady Jackson
Lions sign DE Kyle Vanden Bosch
Lions re-sign OT Jon Jansen
Lions cut CB Phillip Buchanon
Lions tender SS Daniel Bullocks
Lions tender S Ko Simpson
Lions tender G Daniel Loper
Lions tender RB Cedric Peerman
Lions tender OLB Zack Follett
Lions tender G Corey Hilliard
Lions tender TE Jake Nordin
Lions tender CB DeAngelo Smith
Lions tender DE Jason Hunter
Lions tender CB Kevin Hobbs
Lions tender C Dylan Gandy
Lions tender G Manuel Ramirez
Lions cut DE Jared DeVries
Football Fan Spot 