2009 Record

Playoffs: 8-3 (.727)

Overall picks (2009): 174-93 (.652)

Lock picks (2009): 13-4

Upset picks (2009): 20-30

Vikings at Saints 26-31

Spread: -6 Saints

Pick against spread: Vikings (3 units) +300

We all know the back story behind this game, a rematch of the NFC Championship game from 2009, the Saints don’t like the Vikings, the Vikings don’t like the Saints, Brett Favre is back to try to lead his team past a team that they could have easily beaten last year if it wasn’t for their massive amount of turnovers. Many people think this is the same Vikings team from 2009. It isn’t. The same Vikings team from 2009, with better luck, wins that NFC Championship game more times than not. However, with the loss of Sidney Rice to injury and the offseason surgery to Brett Favre’s ankle, which he admits is still not 100% and might not last him the season, this is not the same Vikings team.

The Saints mantra is simple, get after Favre and it worked well last year. It’s going to work better this year. Favre is one of the best quarterbacks in the league under pressure, but he still can be easily pressured, because of the issues his line has in protection, and because he’s not very mobile on that ankle. That pressure is going to lead to a few interceptions for that opportunistic Saints defense, even without Darren Sharper. The Vikings weren’t just unlucky in that NFC Championship game. The Saints defense loves to create turnovers and did it well all year. The emergence of Tracy Porter as an elite ballhawking cornerback should compensate some for the loss of Sharper. While I expect Adrian Peterson to hold onto the ball better this year, after an entire offseason of working on fumbles, Favre will be picked off once if not more in this game.

We all know what happens when the Saints defense gets turnovers. They normally end up, if not score, then in great field position for that dynamic Saints offense led by Drew Brees. The Saints offense might look a bit rusty in this game, as they did in the preseason, but that defense is going to come to play. They genuinely don’t like Favre. That’s all the motivation they need, even after getting their rings right before the game.

The Saints may not start out looking great in this game, because of a small Super Bowl hangover, but they’ll come back to win late on the strength of their defense and Drew Brees, especially since I can’t see too many teams beating the Saints in the Superdome this year, as was the case last year. I don’t like them to cover though as it will be tough for a slightly Super Bowl hungover team to beat a quality foe by more than a touchdown.

Dolphins at Bills 20-14

Spread: -3 Dolphins

Pick against spread: Dolphins (3 units) +300

The Bills are an absolute mess right now. Trent Edwards looked decent this preseason, but he’s going to have his work cut out for him if he wants to lead this team to victory. The Dolphins, as is the case with most Bill Parcells teams, get after the quarterback well. They cut their two top pass rushers from 2009, but still have a good pass rush and the Bills offensive line is horrible. Edwards behind that line is a tried and failed approach and it’ll be the same this year and in this game. It won’t be a blowout, because I expect the Bills opportunistic defense to pick off the somewhat wild Chad Henne once or twice, but I’m picking the Dolphins to both win and cover on the road this week.

Panthers at Giants 21-31

Spread: -7 Giants

Pick against spread: Giants (2 units) +200

I like Matt Moore and the Panthers a lot more than most this season, but this isn’t one of the games they’ll win. The Panthers offensively didn’t click right in the preseason, thanks to Steve Smith’s injury. Smith is 100% for this game, but it’ll take a bit for this team to gel, especially since Moore doesn’t have much outside of Smith. The Giants are a much improved team this season after fixing their issues in the secondary, plus another year with those talented young receivers is definitely not a bad thing for Eli Manning. The Panthers can be run on and the Giants are the type of team that can normally beat the type of team that can be run on. Their running game will make things easier for Eli in a win.

Falcons at Steelers 17-20 Upset pick

Spread: -2 ½ Falcons

Pick against spread: Steelers (3 units) +300

This is Dennis Dixon 2^nd career start as he takes over for the suspended Ben Roethlisberger. Dixon is actually a fairly solid quarterback and can win some games and make some plays, on the strength of this defense, provided he keep the mental mistakes that young quarterbacks normally make to a minimum. The Steelers defense is great. With Aaron Smith and Troy Polamalu coming back from injury and Larry Foote and Bryant McFadden returning to the team after one-year stints in Detroit and Arizona respectively, this unit is essentially the same unit as their near record setting 2008 squad that won the Super Bowl. Granted, key players are 2 years older on the wrong side of 30, but this is still a top 3 defense in the league. The Falcons may be completely underrated that and even if they aren’t, they’re probably underrating Dennis Dixon. The Falcons likely see this as their chance to jump on an elite team while their star QB is gone and won’t take the Steelers as seriously as they should. Look for Dixon to do just enough against the Falcons overrated defense to win a close one in an upset.

Detroit Lions at Chicago Bears 20-21

Spread: -6 ½ Bears

Pick against spread: Lions (2 units) +200

The Bears are going to be a pass heavy team this year with Mike Martz as their offensive coordinator so they have to be thrilled that the Lions’ secondary is one of the worst in the league. The Lions secondary as absolutely their achillies heal. Look for the Lions to blitz Cutler a lot, as that is the weakness of the Martz scheme, with all of its 7 and 9 step drops. They’d be well served to blitz members of their secondary often, knowing they are already pretty overmatched against the pass if Cutler can get the ball out cleanly, and just try to sack and pick the erratic Cutler often. I expect them to do that and create a few turnovers, but their own quarterback, Matt Stafford is a bit erratic as well. These two teams are actually pretty similar, pass heavy, cannon armed erratic quarterback, bad offensive lines, great defensive lines, crappy secondaries, but I still like the Bears a bit more here at home, but I wouldn’t pick them to cover that large spread at all.

Bengals at Patriots 30-33

Spread: -4 ½ Patriots

Pick against spread: Bengals (1 unit) -110

The Patriots young defense is a talented one that I expect to get better as the season goes on, as they get more experience and under the teaching of Bill Belicheck. The problem, they have a very solid opponent right out of the gate. The Bengals with all of their offensive weapons are going to score a lot of points. Palmer’s the type of quarterback who can be great with great receivers and he has great receivers. Tom Brady and company are going to have to be near perfect offensively to keep up with that attack and against what is a very strong Bengals defense. However, I’m still going with the Patriots, not to cover a large and almost unfair spread, but to win this game. The Patriots are the most prepared team in the league every year with BB and Tom Brady. They don’t lose season openers. They haven’t since 2003. They’ve never lost one at home under Belicheck. They’ve been game planning for the Bengals for months. I trust that to be the difference maker in a tough game to pick.

Browns at Buccaneers 28-14 upset pick

Spread: -3 Buccaneers

Pick against spread: Browns (4 units) -40

The Browns really impressed me in the preseason. If Jake Delhomme can find his old form, this team could approach .500, even with the holes in the rest of their supporting cast. A good quarterback is the best band aid for the holes on your team. I don’t expect Delhomme of old, but he’ll definitely win them some games. The Buccaneers are definitely a team in transition. I like a lot of the young talent they have, but they’re not going to be a very good team this year either. Their defense hasn’t  come together yet and the offense, while it has great potential with Josh Freeman at quarterback, is was very inconsistent last year. I definitely prefer the Browns in this one with Delhomme giving them a solid game early and their strong running game holding the Buccaneers off.

Broncos at Jaguars 19-21

Spread: -3 Jaguars

Pick against spread: Broncos (1 unit) -110

The Jaguars were one of the most frustrating teams in the league last year. They could be good. They could be really bad. They have a reputation for being one of the worst prepared teams in the league. In fact, their coach would have been fired long ago, but the Jaguars are in a bad financial situation and would still have to pay him through 2012 even if he were fired. Basically, he’s only there because they can’t afford a new one. They had games last year where they just looked like they took the game off. I’m going with Jacksonville here at home because the Broncos are in really bad shape with their injuries right now and because of the way they ended last year, I just don’t feel like this is a very good team, but I feel it could be really close and an ugly game overall.

Colts at Texans 31-26

Spread: -2 ½ Colts

Pick against the spread: Colts (2 units) -220

The Colts might not look right early, just because of the new positioning of the referee and how that affects quick snap teams. Manning could be a bit flustered early, but Manning and the Colts still own the Texans and I feel the Texans are a year away and an elite corner from being an elite team. Manning will pick this thin secondary apart with all of his weapons. The Texans defensive backs are not skilled enough to leave Reggie Wayne on single coverage so he’ll be doubled and some is going to be open for Manning often. Matt Schaub won’t be able to keep up as Manning gets himself together and leads another heartbreaking come from behind victory.

Raiders at Titans 17-20

Spread: -6 ½ Titans

Pick against the spread: Raiders (2 units) -220

The Raiders won’t look like the post 2002 Raiders you know this year. I expect them to lose only single digit games for the first time since 2002, but the Titans are also surprisingly underrated. Vince Young, believe it or not, is one of those quarterbacks whose team just rallys around him and wins games and then of course Chris Johnson, who, even a strong Raiders defense won’t be able to contain. It hurts the Raiders that stud running back Michael Bush will miss this game with a broken thumb, so Jason Campbell won’t have a strong running game with McFadden as the starter, to lean on. Expect the Raiders to drop the opener in Tennessee, but overall look solid, especially defensively, and cover the spread.

Packers at Eagles 45-24

Spread: -3 Packers

Pick against the spread: Packers (5 units) +500

If that 59 spot they dropped on the Colts in the preseason was any indication, the Packers offense is really, really good. If their line holds up, they’re going to make a Super Bowl run like the Saints did last year. Expect their currently fully healthy line to hold off a very strong Eagles pass rush, which will allow the Packers to pick apart a very poor Eagles secondary. That’s going to put a ton of pressure on Kevin Kolb, in his 3^rd career start. The Packers will be able to blitz him and his horrible offensive line and force him into bad throws and turnovers, which are going to fuel a bunch of shortened field touchdown drives for the Packers dynamic offense.

49ers at Seahawks 33-17

Spread: -3 49ers

Pick against the spread: 49ers (4 units) -440

The Seahawks are a mess. They don’t have a true #1 running back a true #1 receiver and don’t even get me started on a defensive squad that has the worst defensive line in the league. Alex Smith is going to have all day in the pocket and shouldn’t have to make many throws as the Niners can just ram it down the middle with Frank Gore and Anthony Dixon against the Seahawks weak run defense once they get ahead. Matt Hasselbeck is going to be pressured like he was in the game the Seahawks played against the Niners early last year, because stud rookie left tackle Russell Okung will miss the game with an injury. Their passing game is the team’s strength if they can get Hasselbeck some protection and that’ll win them some games against mediocre foes, but Okung is out and the Niners, as we saw in the preseason, are far from mediocre.

Arizona at St. Louis 13-19 upset pick

Spread: -4 Cardinals

Pick against the spread: Rams (2 units) -20

This is going to be a sloppy game overall with the erratic Derek Anderson against rookie Sam Bradford. Anderson is better than Matt Leinart, but he missed a bunch of throws in the preseason that plain and simply every NFL quarterback should make. Bradford looked really good in the preseason and I expect him to really surprise people and win this opener at home over a clearly in trouble Arizona squad, even though Arizona’s defense is actually pretty decent.

Cowboys at Redskins 35-23

Spread: -3 ½ Cowboys

Pick against spread: Cowboys (3 units) -330

You know that sloppy Cowboys offense we saw in the preseason, it’s going to look completely different now that the games matter. This offense is too talented to suck that much in real games. Preseasons don’t really mean all that much and I expect this star studded group of playmakers, on both sides of the ball, to come out and beat a team that is simply less talented in every area of the game, even with the addition of Donovan McNabb and a revamped offensive line.

Ravens at Jets 16-23 upset pick

Spread: -2 ½ jets

Pick against the spread: Ravens (3 units) -330

I feel like I’m getting away with something by being able to call this an upset pick. The Jets should not be favored here. The Ravens are so much better at quarterback. Mark Sanchez looked like absolute crap in the preseason and the defense is not going to quite look like the leagues #1 squad this week, with Calvin Pace hurt and Darrelle Revis still getting back into the flow of things. It’s not going to by a high scoring affair with this two strong defenses, but the Ravens have a strong offense too, especially where it counts, at the quarterback position.

Chargers at Chiefs 38-14 lock pick

Spread: – 4 ½ Chargers

Pick against the spread: Chargers (5 units) -550

I don’t see how the spread is 4 ½ here. The Chargers are so much better here. Their achilles heel on offense will be protecting the quarterback with Marcus McNeil holding out, and that will lose them some games, but not this one as the Chiefs can’t pressure the quarterback anyway. The Chargers won’t miss a beat in the receiving corps with Vincent Jackson out as Malcom Floyd is a clearly competent #1 receiver, as he showed in the preseason and Rivers is going to have a huge game against a weak Chiefs defense in a blowout win. Eric Berry is the Chiefs best defensive player, but he won’t get a lot of opportunities for picks against a sound quarterback like Rivers, without the help of a strong pass rush. Matt Cassel won’t be able to keep up with his mediocre arm and mediocre supporting cast and the Chargers will have their first early season blowout win in a while.