Last week overall: 10-3
Last week ATS: 6-6-1 (+590/+16%)
Overall picks: 83-47 (.638)
ATS Picks: 66-59-5 (+$1270)
Lock picks: 6-3
Upset picks: 13-16
Atlanta Falcons 31 Baltimore Ravens 20
Spread: -1 Atlanta
Pick against spread: Atlanta 4 units
I love the Falcons in this spot, to win at home against an even spread. Not only has Matt Ryan only lost one regular season home game in his career, this game is a Thursday Night home game. He’ll not only feed off the energy of the home crowd, but off the energy of a national televised game. The Ravens, meanwhile, have to travel on a short week. I did some research and home teams are 23-10 on Thursday Night Football since 2006. Even more impressive, only two of those losses were by teams with winning records at the time, the 2007 Lions and the 2006 Seahawks. The 2007 Lions were in the midst of a 3 game losing streak at the time. I love Matt Ryan and the Falcons to win at home as a team with a winning record on Thursday Night Football.
New England Patriots 26 Pittsburgh Steelers 19 Upset Pick
Spread: -4.5 Pittsburgh
Pick against spread: New England 5 units
Tom Brady getting points is good. Tom Brady getting 4.5 points is better. Tom Brady getting 4.5 points coming off of a loss is amazing. Brady has lost back-to-back regular season games once since 2003. Tom Brady in his career off of a loss is 21-11 ATS and 14-7 ATS as an underdog. The Pats are 12-1 straight up of off a 10 point loss in the Brady/Belicheck era with that one loss by 1 point. I would pick the Pats to win outright here. However, the 4.5 points are even better. The Steelers have a history of letting teams come back in the 4th quarter in recent games so I think the Patriots, at worst, could get a back door cover, but I have them winning. The Steelers are banged up right now and the Pats are pissed off.
Detroit Lions 31 Buffalo Bills 21 Upset Pick
Spread: -2.5 Buffalo
Pick against spread: Detroit 4 units
This is an interesting game. The Bills are 0-8, but favored by 3 because it appears Lions 3rd string quarterback Drew Stanton will start with Matt Stafford out with another shoulder injury and Shaun Hill doubtful again with a broken arm. Drew Stanton is a terrible quarterback. Stanton is 55 for 104 for 611 yards, 2 scores, and 7 picks in his career. However, he was 19 for 34 for 222 yards, 1 touchdown, and 1 pick against the Giants in relief of Hill week 6 and the Giants have a great defense. That’s obviously some sort of hope. The Lions have a great offensive supporting cast. Shaun Hill is by no means a good starting quarterback, but this team averaged 26.4 points per game in 5 starts by Hill. I think they can put up some points here and win against the 0-8 Bills and even if they don’t, I have 3 points breathing room. I just wouldn’t feel comfortable laying points with a winless team against a team with a positive point differential.
Update: Shaun Hill will start instead of Drew Stanton, yet the line remains at Bills -2.5. As I mentioned before, the Lions averaged 26.4 points per with Hill in the lineup and the Bills are terribly defensively so he should exceed that in a fairly high scoring affair all around.
Minnesota Vikings 26 Chicago Bears 16
Spread: -1 Minnesota
Pick against spread: Minnesota 3 units
This is one of many even spreads this week so I essentially just have to pick a winner. I’m going with the Vikings here. Jared Allen and Ray Edwards finally came to life last week against Arizona and I think they can continue that against Chicago and their terrible pass protection this week. Jay Cutler simply can’t win when he’s heavily pressured. He’s not the type of quarterback who can succeed in this type of offense and I wouldn’t be surprised if he were traded back to Mike Shanahan this offseason to become Donovan McNabb’s successor in Washington. Brett Favre has quietly been playing very well recently. I’m not surprised. He’s at his best in the face of adversity and he’s had more adversity in recent weeks than at any point in his career, in my opinion. In his past 4, he’s 88 for 127 for 1055 yards, 4 touchdowns, and 6 picks. Obviously the picks are a problem, but that’s to be expected with Favre. I think he can lead successful drives even against Chicago’s #1 ranked pass defense this week and beat a Chicago offense that isn’t going to be scoring a lot of points this week.
New York Jets 23 Cleveland Browns 17
Spread: -3 Jets
Pick against spread: Jets 1 unit
In the past 4 weeks, the Jets have needed a PI call to beat Denver, had a bye, got shut out at home by the Packers, and needed a missed extra point and overtime to beat the Lions. They may be 6-2, but they’re certainly not playing like 6-2. In the Browns last 3 weeks, they beat New England and New Orleans. They’ve only played one game against a sub .500 team this season and they won it. They hung within a touchdown of Tampa Bay, Kansas City, and Baltimore. They may be 3-5, but they’re certainly not playing like 3-5. The problem, Vegas notices this and they made the spread a mere 3 points. I still think the Jets are the more talented team and I don’t like picking Colt McCoy to beat a great Jets defense, but I’m not all that confident in Mark Sanchez and the Jets either.
Indianapolis Colts 31 Cincinnati Bengals 17
Spread: -7 Indianapolis
Pick against spread: Indianapolis 2 units
The Bengals were essentially eliminated last week, falling 4 games out of the division in devastating fashion, on a failed 4th down conversion on a dropped pass by Jordan Shipley. The Colts, meanwhile, are looking to prove themselves after losing to the Eagles. I think they’ll bounce back big this week against the Bengals. They have injuries all around, most recently and possibly most devastatingly on defense. Peyton Manning can mask their offensive issues, but not their defensive issues. However, Carson Palmer isn’t very good, so I don’t think he can take advantage of that. I have the Colts winning big, but I only have it as a 2 unit pick because the Bengals are the kings of backdoor covers. They only have 2 losses by more than 7 points this season. If you can get this spread at 6.5 however, feel free to put 3-4 units on it.
Tennessee Titans 27 Miami Dolphins 19
Spread: -1 Tennessee
Pick against spread: Tennessee 3 units
Yet another game where I just have to pick a straight up winner. The Dolphins haven’t won at home this season, but that’s excusable because the 3 teams they’ve played at home have a combined 18-6 record. They also lost to the Ravens on the road, who are also 6-2. The Titans however, might be just as good. They are 5-3 on the season, but they just added Randy Moss to open up their offense. I say might because we don’t know. We don’t know the impact Moss will have on this team. I’m picking the Titans to win. The Dolphins looked bad last week. I originally wasn’t going to put more than 2 units on this game because we simply don’t know how good the Titans are with Moss, but I would have picked the Titans to win this game easily without Moss. I can’t see the Dolphins winning this game.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers 23 Carolina Panthers 21
Spread: -6.5 Tampa Bay
Pick against spread: Carolina 2 units
The Buccaneers are a good bad team. They can beat bad teams, but not good teams. The Panthers are a bad team, but that spread is pretty large. The Bucs have only beaten one team by more than 3 points this season. Of course that team was the Panthers (13), but that was before Tanard Jackson got suspended and their defense fell apart. They rank 19th against the pass and 31st against the run. The Panthers should be able to move the ball in this game with Jimmy Clausen. Clausen is a better quarterback than Matt Moore in my book. He just got screwed over with his schedule. He faced Chicago’s defense (#1 versus pass), Cincinnati’s defense (#12 versus pass), and New Orleans’ defense (#3 versus pass). I expect him to be able to move the ball and keep this one within a touchdown. John Fox is also 8-3 in his career in games against divisional rivals that have beaten them previously.
Houston Texans 35 Jacksonville Jaguars 31 Upset Pick
Spread: -1.5 Jacksonville
Pick against spread: Houston 2 units
The Texans should win this game. They have an amazing passing offense and the Jaguars can’t stop anyone through the air. However, Andre Johnson is obviously not 100% right now. The Texans are not playing well right now and the Jaguars always get up for divisional opponents. They beat the Texans twice last year and they couldn’t stop the pass then either. They beat the Colts earlier this season and they shouldn’t have been able to do that either. I’m picking the Texans based off of the matchups, but I’m certainly not too confident in that, especially since I’m 1-7 picking Jaguars games this season. They’re one of the most unpredictable teams in the NFL, at least in my eyes.
Denver Broncos 26 Kansas City Chiefs 16 Upset Pick
Spread: -1 Kansas City
Pick against spread: Denver 3 units
Yes, the Broncos losing by 20 to the Chiefs at home week 17 last year is still burned in everyone’s mind, but the Broncos dominated the Chiefs in Denver before that. Their last loss to the Chiefs in Denver was in 2000, by 1 point. The Broncos are coming off of a bye week to regroup and the Chiefs look like a mess right now. The Broncos defense might be struggling, but their quarterback is significantly better right now and I’ll take the significantly better quarterback in a straight up pick game.
New York Giants 34 Dallas Cowboys 17
Spread: -13.5 Giants
Pick against spread: Giants 1 unit
I normally don’t like picking against a team that is getting 2 touchdowns or more, but I’m doing it this week. The Cowboys have been outscored 114-39 since Tony Romo went down, 34-15 of which was against these same Giants in Dallas. This team simply threw in the towel under Wade Phillips. Wade is gone, but I don’t it’ll make much of a difference. In season coaching changes never do. Teams are 2-11 ATS the week after firing their coach midseason (excluding teams with byes) since the early 90s. In season coaching changes are normally promotions of someone in house, so it makes sense that they don’t help. If they weren’t responding to the first guy, why would they respond to someone else who’s been around awhile? Teams normally need new faces when they make a coaching change and this team didn’t get one. I don’t like picking the favorite in a spread of this many points, especially when the underdog is as talented as the Cowboys are supposed to be, but I’m doing it anyway.
Arizona Cardinals 21 Seattle Seahawks 16
Spread: -3 Arizona
Pick against spread: Arizona 1 unit
The Seahawks are coming off of back to back games of losing against the spread by 25 or more points, but they get both Matt Hasselbeck and Russell Okung back which means we won’t have to see Charlie Whitehurst like we did last week or Hasselbeck take 8 sacks like he did 2 weeks ago against Oakland. When Russell Okung is in the lineup, their offense just works so much better. However, I’m going with Arizona. Hasselbeck always looks a little gun shy after getting hurt and taking a lot of sacks. Also, the Cardinals are just a better team at home. The Seahawks are too, but they’re on the road here, where they’re terrible. The Cardinals are 2-1 at home with a differential of +8. The Seahawks on the road are 1-3 with a differential of -61. I’m only putting one unit on it though because the Cardinals are a bad team favored by a field goal.
Update: Okung is out so I like my pick more, but I’m not changing the units or anything. I don’t like laying multiple units on a bad team favored and it’s not like the Cards have the pass rush to capitalize on Okung’s absence.
San Francisco 49ers 24 St. Louis Rams 16
Spread: -6 San Francisco
Pick against spread: San Francisco 1 unit
I had this one circled as an upset and a big play before this week, but apparently Vegas had the same idea making the 49ers favorites by a whopping 6 points. I’m still taking the 49ers, but only one unit. The 49ers are a different team at home in San Francisco. They beat Oakland at home and hung within a field goal of Philly and New Orleans at home. The 49ers are also coming off their best quarterbacking performance this season. The Rams, on the other hand, have not won on the road. They’re a young team so that’s expected. Candlestick is a tough place to play for a rookie quarterback, especially in his first time in the stadium. There’s always swirling wind and the crowd noise is very underrated. It’s a former baseball stadium so the field looks bigger than it is, and thus the end zone appears farther away. There’s a reason they went 6-2 here last year.
Philadelphia Eagles 34 Washington Redskins 24
Spread: -3 Philadelphia
Pick against spread: Philadelphia 3 units
The Redskins beat the Eagles earlier this season, but they hardly looked good in doing so and the Eagles didn’t have Michael Vick for most of that game. The Redskins are also in massive chaos right now even coming out of their bye. The Eagles will be more motivated to win this game more than the Redskins. The Redskins have already won this rivalry. McNabb got his revenge on the Eagles. The Eagles will be hungry for revenge on McNabb now.
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