Last week overall: 13-3
Last week ATS: 10-5-1 (+320/+7%)
Overall picks: 104-56 (.650)
ATS Picks: 82-72-6 (+$1950)
Lock picks: 7-4
Upset picks: 17-19
Week 11 Recap: Week 11 was kind of the anti-week 10. Week 10 I made some money in spite of a losing record. I went 6-8 making 360 dollars in the process, of 9% of my total bet amount. Week 11 I made money as well, 320 dollars, 7% of my total bet amount. However, looking at my 10-5-1 record, I should have made more. What went wrong? Well, I whiffed on my two highest bets, Seattle +12 (they lost by 15) and Arizona +9 (I don’t want to talk about it). Also, the Colts came back from a 17 point deficit to force a backdoor push at +3 (but, I’m a Pats fan and they won so I can’t complain). Excluding those three just mentioned, I was 10-3 on the week, going 4-2 with my 3 unit picks. My only other miss was Detroit +6.5 over Dallas for 2. That one was close until the 4th quarter when the Cowboys pulled away with a late kickoff return TD. In straight up picks, I went 13-3, my best week of the season and my best week in recent memory, and I finally nailed my lock pick after dropping 3 straight, as the Ravens destroyed the Panthers on the strength of 2 TAINTs.
New England 31 Detroit Lions 13 Lock Pick
Spread: New England -6.5
Pick against spread: New England 4 units (+400)
I know I always bring up that stat that home teams are 24-11 on Thursday Night at home. However, it’s different this week. No, I’m not changing my mind because Dolphins bombed at home last week missing like half of their lineup. That’s one game. However, the Lions are the exception to this rule. Lions playing on Thanksgiving is a tradition, but so is the Lions losing on Thanksgiving.
Since 2001, they’ve hosted 9 home Thanksgiving games and won one of them (2003). Since 2003, they’ve lost their last 7 Thanksgiving home games by an average of 24.3 points. They can’t even win on Thanksgiving when they have a winning record (as was the case in 2007). They’re one of only 3 teams to lose a home Thursday game with a winning record since 2006. Also, there is no one I trust more to prepare for a short week than Belicheck/Brady. They’ve only had 1 Thursday Night Game in the Brady/Belicheck era, but they won it, for what that counts.
Also, I think we’re getting line value with the Pats. The Lions are coming off their biggest loss of the year, to a previously 2 win team. They also lost the week before to the Bills. They’ve mailed it in with Stafford hurt yet again. They’re not the backdoor cover machines they were in Hill’s first stint as starter. They’re definitely more than 6.5 points worse than the 8-2 Patriots, and I expect the final score to reflect that at the end of the day.
New Orleans 35 Dallas 27
Spread: New Orleans -3.5
Pick against spread: New Orleans 2 units (-220)
Yes, the Cowboys do have a Thanksgiving home game and the Saints have to travel on short rest. Yes, only 3 teams with winning record have lost at home on a Thursday Night since 2006, but the Cowboys don’t have a winning record. I think the Jason Garrett Cowboys can win this one at home, but at the same time I love getting to take Brees against this atrocious Cowboys defense and secondary (with Phillips and with Garrett) over Jon Kitna +3.5.
Also, the Saints are at full strength now, getting key defensive players back and likely getting Bush back. They’ve won their last 2 with ease and I like getting them in a fairly even line here for 2 units and only 2 because the Cowboys are playing well and at home on a Thursday Night.
New York Jets 31 Cincinnati Bengals 14
Spread: NY Jets -9
Pick against spread: NY Jets 2 units (+200)
Logic says not to take the Jets big here. They haven’t won by more than 9 since week 4. However, I’m going to take them -9 for multiple units. It’s not a big play, but I love the Jets this week to finally win by more than 9.
First of all, the Jets dominated this matchup twice last year. The Bengals are worse than they were last year by a lot and seemed to have mailed it in. The Bills game was clear evidence of that. The Jets, meanwhile, have gotten a lot better since those two games. Mark Sanchez has become a legitimate franchise quarterback and this passing game is now as deadly, if not deadlier than their running game. They can tear apart a Cincy secondary that’s missing two key starters.
Also, they’re a home team on Thursday Night and on Thanksgiving, normally a good sign a team, especially a good team like the Jets, is going to dominate. I would go 3+ units, even against a big line here, but because of the fact that the Jets haven’t won by more than 9 since week 4 and the fact that the Bengals are good at back door covers, I’m going with the Jets for only two.
Atlanta Falcons 34 Green Bay Packers 28
Spread: Atlanta -1.5
Pick against spread: Atlanta 2 units (+200)
The Packers have won their last 2 by combined scores of 76-10, getting two coaches fired in the process (Wade and Chilly). However, Matt Ryan has lost once at home in his career. I’ve stuck with that all year and it’s won me big so I’m going with it again here.
The Packers aren’t playing the Cowboys or Vikings here. They’re playing arguably the best team in the NFC in a place where they rarely lose. I’m taking the Falcons against an even line bet, but only putting two units on it because the Packers are a very complete team as well.
Pittsburgh Steelers 28 Buffalo Bills 12
Spread: -6 Pittsburgh
Pick against spread: Pittsburgh 4 units (-440)
I think we’re getting very good line value here with the Steelers. Two weeks ago, the Bills would have been -10 at least here. Two weeks later they’re -6 and what have they done, except beat 2 teams that have won a combined 4 games?
Ryan Fiztpatrick hasn’t seen anything like the Steelers’ defense and they eat weak armed quarterbacks like him up. The Steelers offense is stuttering a bit now with a banged up offensive line, but the Bills can’t pass rush and Rashard Mendenhall could be such a factor against a terrible Buffalo run defense that the Bills can’t blitz at all, especially if they’re trailing big. The Steelers destroyed the Raiders last week and I expect them to do the same this week.
Carolina Panthers 17 Cleveland Browns 16 Upset Pick
Spread: -10 Cleveland
Pick against spread: Carolina 5 units (+500)
Jake Delhomme is getting all the snaps in practice for the Browns. The Panthers are the Panthers. Betting on Jake Delhomme and betting on the Panthers are normally both good ways to lose money. The catch, the line is 10 points. 10 points! In favor of Delhomme! Delhomme has trouble scoring 10 points. I’d say there’s a 50-50 chance that Delhomme doesn’t even score 10 points.
This line was just posted today and I don’t know if Vegas realizes that McCoy likely isn’t going to be starting in this one, but get this line while you can. Jake Delhomme -10 vs. anyone. It’s a gamblers dream. Jimmy Clausen will be back for Carolina, which is better than Brian St. Pierre. This only reason this isn’t a 6+ unit pick is because, well it’s the Panthers.
If that’s not enough, the Browns even with Colt McCoy, are probably a 6 win or worse team. To win 7 games, they’d be have go 4-2. Teams that go 6-10 or worse are 19-49 as 6+ point favorites since 2002. The Browns are 10 point favorites missing their starting quarterback. The Browns are also double digit favorites coming off of a loss. Since 2002, teams are 34-61 as 10+ point favorites coming off of a loss. Also, it’s Jake Delhomme. Just saying.
Because I expect this line to go down once Vegas realizes its Delhomme, here’s my breakdown.
Browns -9+ 5 units Panthers
Browns -6-8 4 units Panthers
Browns -4-5 3 units Panthers
Browns -1-3 2 units Panthers
Even line 1 unit Panthers
Panthers favored 1 unit Browns
But get it while you can!!!
New York Giants 26 Jacksonville Jaguars 23
Spread: NY Giants -7.5
Pick against spread: Jacksonville 1 unit (+100)
I give up betting on Jacksonville’s games. I’m 1-9 against the spread in their games this year. Instead I’m just going with the points here for 1 unit. Also, the Giants are playing badly and are known for second half slumps, but that might be too much analysis for my own good. Points for 1 unit it is. I considered two because of the huge line and the Giants tendency to slump in the 2nd half, but I’m not falling for it again.
Minnesota Vikings 31 Washington Redskins 28 Upset Pick
Spread: -1.5 Washington
Pick against spread: Minnesota 2 units (+200)
Call me crazy, but after seeing the culture change in Dallas under Jason Garrett, I think there could be one in Minnesota under Leslie Frazier. Brad Childress was someone the players weren’t responding to, someone the players didn’t like. This is still a talented team, just like Dallas, and they have the weapons to exploits the Redskins terrible defense.
I think Favre finally has a good game, helped by Adrian Peterson against the Redskins lowly ground defense and the Vikings in a close upset. Favre also gets Sidney Rice another game healthy. The Redskins rank 23rd against the pass and dead last against the run.
Houston Texans 24 Tennessee Titans 21
Spread: -6.5 Houston
Pick against spread: Tennessee 1 unit (-110)
This is a tough one. Rusty Smith is a bad quarterback, as he showed late against Washington, though he could be better with a week of practice with the first time. At the time same, the Texans could over look the Titans for that and the Texans have lost 4 straight overall and 6 straight against the spread. That doesn’t make them a good bet favored by a touchdown.
The Titans can still do some things defensively and they still have Chris Johnson and Randy Moss. The Texans might key in on Johnson with Young out and finally leave Moss open downfield against a terrible Texans secondary. However, Rusty Smith might not have the arm strength to hit him deep and Moss might not even care right now on a 5-5 team without its starting quarterback.
However, the Texans could also key in on Moss and let Johnson run free on them. Betting a team starting a backup, especially a talented one, is normally a good bet, but that’s how I lost with Miami and Dallas in recent weeks. When in doubt, go with the points for 1 unit.
Seattle Seahawks 26 Kansas City Chiefs 16 Upset Pick
Spread: -1 Kansas City
Pick against spread: Seattle 4 units (-440)
The Chiefs continue to be overrated by Vegas. They’ve beaten the early season Chargers, the Seneca Wallace Browns, the 49ers, the Jags, the Bills and the Cardinals. The Seahawks are a legitimately good team with Hasselbeck and Okung protecting him. They didn’t look it in the Superdome thanks to penalties, but this is a much better team at home.
Matt Cassel can’t win games where he has to play catch up or where the opposing defense can take away his ground game. Seattle can at least make them play catch up, especially at home.
Oakland Raiders 20 Miami Dolphins 16
Spread: Oakland -1
Pick against spread: Oakland 1 unit (-110)
Chad Henne is expected to start in this one, but his first game is a tough test. He has to go into Oakland. Oakland is a tough place to place and it’s a 3 time zone road game, which is always a bad spot. He will be missing Brandon Marshall and his offensive line is still awfully banged up, facing one of the best pass rushes in the league.
Also, teams tend to slack off once their quarterback returns from an injury. This could happen especially this week because Miami likely won’t take Oakland seriously coming off that horrible loss to the Steelers. Plus, they are the Raiders. The Dolphins, meanwhile, looked absolutely terrible last week
St. Louis Rams 28 Denver Broncos 16 Upset Pick
Spread: -4 Denver
Pick against spread: St. Louis 5 units (+500)
The Rams have yet to win on the road and Denver can be a very tough place to play, but I’m going with the Rams just because I think we’re getting points with the better team. I’m not 100% percent that Bradford and the Rams will get their first road win this year in this game, but I have 4 points to work with and Denver is falling apart right now.
The Rams may not have won on the road this year, but 3 of those losses were by 3 or fewer and this is a 4 point spread and a worse team than teams like Oakland, San Francisco, and Tampa Bay, the three they’ve lost to on the road by less than 3.
The Chargers destroyed the Broncos’ pass offense with their blitz and amazing pass rush and the Rams can do exactly the same thing. The Broncos also are coming off a deflating loss and will probably feel like their season is over. Even if they don’t, teams coming of MNF losses of 17 or more are 16-32 ATS since 1999.
I feel very confident taking the Rams for 5 because they’ve only lost on the road by 4 or more once this year, because the Broncos should not be favored by 4, because the Rams defense matches up well with Denver’s offense, and because the Broncos might not give this their all after an embarrassing loss that ended their season.
Baltimore Ravens 23 Tampa Bay Buccaneers 19
Spread: -9 Baltimore
Pick against spread: Tampa Bay 1 unit (+100)
I don’t know why Tampa isn’t getting any love. They’re 7-3 and coming off an impressive win in San Francisco, a tough place for a young quarterback to play. They’re getting better every week and they’re not that same team that lost by a combined 50 to the Steelers and Saints.
They hung within a touchdown of Atlanta in Atlanta a few weeks ago and then there was that impressive win last week. Josh Freeman is getting better as the year has gone on and so is Mike Williams. Also the emergence of LeGarrette Blount has helped. I’d say, talent wise, Tampa Bay is significantly less than 9 points worse than Baltimore.
The Ravens also shoot themselves in the foot a lot. They haven’t done it quite as much this year, but they did lose to Cincinnati, barely beat the Seneca Wallace Browns, and needed overtime to beat the winless Bills. The Bengals are terrible and the Browns and Bills were teams they were heavily favored over and they didn’t cover.
Philadelphia Eagles 23 Chicago Bears 13
Spread: Philadelphia -3.5
Pick against spread: Philadelphia 3 units (-330)
Chicago might have the defense that can stop Michael Vick, simply because their defense is one of the most athletic in the NFL. However, with the way Vick is playing, there’s no way I bet Cutler +3.5 over him. The Bears continue to be worse than their record suggests. The way the Dolphins were playing last week, they should have crushed the Dolphins.
I like their defense, not their offense, and you need both to beat the Eagles the way they’re playing right now, as the Giants showed last week. The Giants athletic defense limited Vick, but their suddenly dysfunctional offense couldn’t do anything to take advantage of that.
San Diego Chargers 35 Indianapolis Colts 31 Upset Pick
Spread: Indianapolis -3
Pick against spread: San Diego 3 units (+300)
I’m going with the Chargers here and yes it’s because the Chargers have owned Peyton Manning in recent years. No one plays Peyton Manning tougher than these Chargers and for the first time in this matchup, the Chargers signal caller is someone who I think is playing as well, if not better than Peyton Manning. You heard Jon Gruden suck his cock all Monday Night, this kid is talented.
Plus, we’re getting the Chargers as underdogs. Rivers has only lost 4 career games as an underdog, the same amount as Peyton Manning. As big time MNF losers struggle in their next game, big time MNF winners do really well in their next game. Teams that win on MNF by 17+ are 36-21 ATS since 1999. I like the Chargers with that stat against a Colts team that could be flat off of a heartbreaking loss to the Pats.
San Francisco 49ers 23 Arizona Cardinals 12 Upset Pick
Spread: -1 Arizona
Pick against spread: San Francisco 4 units (+400)
I don’t understand why this is a Monday Night Football game. Who thought this was a good idea? Maybe a lot of people had the 49ers as a 9 or 10 win team, but the Kurt Warner-less Cardinals? How did they not foresee them being terrible.
That’s not the only thing I don’t understand. I don’t understand why this is an even matchup. The Cardinals are terrible. They can’t do anything right. Their point differential of -103 is 2nd worst in the league to Carolina. Their combined quarterback rating is 2nd worst in the league to Carolina. They can’t run the ball and they can’t stop anyone.
They do have 3 wins but one was by 4 in Sam Bradford’s NFL debut, one was by 1 to the Oakland when the Raiders missed a game winning chip shot field goal, and the other was by 10 over New Orleans. In only one of those wins can you say, the Cardinals outplayed the other team and deserved to win and that was that perfect storm game against New Orleans.
The 49ers will be eager to prove themselves after a home shutout. Teams normally are going 19-9 ATS since 2002 after a home shutout in their next game. I love San Francisco to stomp the Cardinals here.
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