Last week overall: 10-6

Last week ATS: 11-5 (+840/+18%)

Overall picks: 156-84 (.650)

ATS Picks: 127-106-7 (+$2450)

Lock picks: 11-5

Upset picks: 30-33 (+1423)

Week 16 recap: Last week I snapped a 3 week streak of being in the red, making $840, or 18%, which, against a 10% juice, is pretty good. However, I was actually disappointed. I started the week 8-1 straight up (losing by 1 picking the Cowboys) and 8-1 ATS, nailing 20 of my first 23 units.

However, I struggled in the second half of the week. 11-5 ATS is very strong, especially with the amount of money I made, but the 10-6 straight up record was not what I was looking for. I nailed my 5 unit pick (Washington +7 over Jacksonville) and split my two 4 units losing Seattle +6 over Tampa Bay and winning Detroit +3.5 over Miami.  

With my upset picks, I earned $325, going 3-2 with my upset picks. I lost with the Seahawks over Buccaneers and Giants over Packers, but won with Washington (+250) over Jacksonville, Detroit (+165) over Miami, and Denver (+130) over Houston.

Atlanta Falcons 27 Carolina Panthers 17

Spread: Atlanta -14.5

Pick against spread: Carolina 2 units (-220)

Last week I bet three on the Panthers to cover as large underdogs citing the Steelers inability to win games by large margins. The Panthers lost 27-3, losing against the spread by 9.5 points. This week, I am betting on the Panthers again as large underdogs, citing the Falcons inability to win games by large margins. However, I do have more reasons and I’m not betting three again on a team as terrible as the Panthers.

The Falcons have only won 4 games by 15 or more this season. One of those was against the Panthers in Carolina, but this time should be different. Last week was the biggest game in the Matt Ryan era for the Falcons and they lost. Now they have to play a lowly Panthers team a mere 6 days later with the playoffs locked up and a first round bye and homefield all but locked up. I doubt they show much energy, instead looking forward to the playoffs.

Unlike the Steelers game, this is a division rivalry. The Panthers do well in same season revenge games in the John Fox era, 8-4 ATS, and typically division rivalries are closer than most games. If this team can hang within 2 of a deflated Saints team week 4 (coming off a home loss to the Falcons) in New Orleans, they can hang within 15 of the Falcons this week.

Also, while the Falcons will have 6 days to prepare for the Panthers, the Panthers will have 10 off of Thursday Night Football. Thursday Night Football losers are 6-2 ATS the next week this year. It also helps that the Panthers have already locked up the #1 draft pick. Playing hard won’t hurt them this week. I won’t bet three this week, but I do like Carolina’s chances to keep this within 2 scores. Finally, another trend, double digit favorites off of a loss are 35-62 ATS since 2002. I know I cited this against Pittsburgh last week, but it’s still a strong trend.

Pittsburgh Steelers 20 Cleveland Browns 17

Spread: Pittsburgh -6

Pick against spread: Cleveland 2 units (-220)

What happened to Colt McCoy? He looked like the second coming of Steve Young before he went down with his injury. Since returning, he’s lost to the Bengals and thrown 3 picks in a 10 point loss to the Ravens. I can only assume he is still not 100% or perhaps that he has hit a rookie wall. Nonetheless, he could continue to struggle this week against the Steelers.

The Ravens were 3.5 points favorites in Cleveland last week, but the Steelers are now 6 point favorites in Cleveland, which I don’t get. Baltimore and Pittsburgh are two very evenly matched teams as shown by the fact that both of their games were very close, so I see no reason why Pittsburgh is favored by more than 4 here, especially considering the Ravens didn’t exactly blow out the spread last week.

In fact, the Ravens did only win 20-10 despite the 3 picks. I don’t think McCoy will be picked off 3 times again this week, especially since the Steelers are expected to rest Troy Polamalu again. The Steelers’ offense has had trouble scoring in recent weeks (with the exception of the Carolina game) and has been especially bad on the road.

Because of this, they haven’t won a lot of games by large margins on the road, with their last road win by 7+ coming week 3 in Tampa Bay. Also keep in mind, Mike Tomlin and the Steelers are a mere 5-13 ATS as road favorites since Tomlin took over as head coach. I moderately like McCoy and the Browns’ chances this week to keep this one close.

Detroit Lions 24 Minnesota Vikings 20

Spread: Detroit -3

Pick against spread: Detroit 1 unit (+100)

The Vikings didn’t look half bad on Tuesday Night Football, beating the Eagles and rediscovering their pass rush in the process. Luckily for them, the Lions struggle to protect their quarterback so they could get a few more sacks this week. Brett Favre is expected to get the start this week for Minnesota over Joe Webb who looked decent, but unspectacular against the Eagles last week. I still say they need a new QB in 2011.

The Lions are in an interesting position in this one. They’re favored. They’ve been favored a mere 10 times since the start of the 2006 season and they only covered in 3 of them. However, they didn’t deserve to be favored all that much until this season. They’re playing good football right now and are the better team in this one at home. They have the league’s best record ATS and are on a 3 game winning streak. It may only be for 1 unit, but I like the Lions in this one.

Green Bay Packers 28 Chicago Bears 20

Spread: Green Bay -10.5

Pick against spread: Chicago 1 unit (+100)

Chicago has clinched a first round bye with the Eagles loss to the Vikings on Tuesday. The only way Chicago can get different seed than the one they have now, #2, is if Atlanta loses to Carolina and New Orleans loses to Tampa Bay. I don’t think that combination is all that likely. 

That being said, Chicago might still play fairly hard in this one for several reasons. One, Green Bay is a division rival. Very rarely do you see a team just rollover and let a division rival win, especially win, if said division rival wins, they make the playoffs. The Bears aren’t going to roll over and let the Packers make the playoffs.

The second reason is, in addition to being a division rival, the Packers are also a scary opponent. I think the Bears would much rather the Giants or the Buccaneers sneak into the 6th seed than the Packers. This isn’t a team they want to face in the playoffs and beating them here would eliminate that possibility.

However, I’m still taking the Packers to win. They need this game more and they are the better team, but I find that spread slightly ridiculous. It assumes the Bears will just roll over this week. I’m taking the points for 1.  

New England Patriots 38 Miami Dolphins 17 Lock Pick

Spread: New England -3

Pick against spread: New England 6 units (+600)

This spread suggests that the Patriots will bench or limit their starters this week. I don’t know why. They never do. In fact, in the BB/Brady era, they are 7-2 week 17. Some say they will still rest because of what happened to Wes Welker week 17 last year (and the ensuing beatdown they suffered in the first round of the playoffs the next week). However, the Patriots clinched homefield after week 15. If they were going to rest their starters, why didn’t they last week up 20+ late against the Bills. BB and company haven’t changed.

Like the Bills, the Dolphins are a hated division rival, and even if they weren’t, this team would still give it their all. They almost always do, especially this year when it seems everyone on the team, especially Brady, has a chip on their shoulder. The only reason they didn’t against the Packers is because they saw they were expecting to play Aaron Rodgers and were so relieved to play Flynn instead that they forgot the Packers were good.

Even in the Packers game, they scored 30 points. In fact, the last time they didn’t score 30 was their last loss, week 9 in Cleveland. Going all out once again, I expect them to do the same this week. They’ve gashed defenses better than the Dolphins’ for 30+, including the Packers, Steelers, Jets, and Bears. No one can stop them. The Dolphins and their 14^th ranked pass defense won’t be able to. I can’t see the Dolphins, who have only scored 27+ twice this year, being able to keep up with the way Henne has been playing of late.

I’m going with this for my 2^nd 6 unit pick of the year. The only reason this isn’t 7 or 8 is because there’s a slight chance they could pull Brady early (BB is not exactly the most truthful and easy to read person) for Brian Hoyer, even though that’s not the Patriot way. Even in that situation, they could build an early 10-0 or 10-3 lead and still cover. These teams aren’t even close to being evenly matched. This is my favorite pick of the year (followed by Colts +3 against the Eagles, and the Panthers +10 against Jake Delhomme). Brady -3 against a sub .500 team in New England. Gotta love it.

 

Indianapolis Colts 34 Tennessee Titans 28

Spread: Indianapolis -9.5

Pick against spread: Tennessee 2 units (+200)

Tennessee flat out sucked last week. They showed zero effort in Kansas City and let Matt Cassel and company have their way with them all day. It was really (in the words of the great Jim Mora) a horseshit performance, especially when you consider that their offensive coordinator Mike Heimerdinger is still there in a losing season coaching despite battling cancer and going through chemo. I thought this team would show a little bit more effort for a coach who is showing all the effort in the world. I guess I was wrong.

However, I do expect the Titans to show up this week. This is a divisional clash against the hated rival Colts. They are only 2-3 against the division this year, but in one of those losses was by 2 points (against these Colts) and in another they were playing with Rusty Smith as their quarterback. Both of their division victories were very impressive, so they should give effort this week like they did two weeks ago against Houston.

The Colts, meanwhile, haven’t been playing the caliber of ball that allows them to cover large spreads like this one. Their last double digit win was week 8 against the Texans which was right before this team started “struggling” (by their standards). A few weeks ago, the Colts, as 3 point favorites on the road, failed to cover against the Titans. The Titans were coming off back to back ugly losses in that one as well so they’re no strangers to covering against the Colts after bad losses.

Oakland Raiders 27 Kansas City Chiefs 21 Upset Pick (+180)

Spread: Kansas City -4

Pick against spread: Oakland 3 units (+300)

Congratulations to the Kansas City Chiefs. I’ve doubted them all year, but they clinched the division over the San Diego Chargers with a week to spare. Todd Haley says he will be playing his starters this week, but we can’t know to what extent. If they win, they clinch the 3^rd seed. If they lose and the Colts win, they drop to 4. I doubt they care because either way they will have a home playoff game and play one of two similar teams, the Jets and Ravens.

The Raiders, meanwhile, are trying to complete an improbable 6-0 season in the division and get to 8-8 on the season. They have a good shot to do that even though doing so would mean that the Chiefs would drop their first home game of the season and fall to 7-1. I think finishing 6-0 in the division means more to the Raiders than 8-0 at home means to the Chiefs, who are just trying to get ready for the playoffs.

The Raiders matchup well with the Chiefs. They beat the Chiefs earlier this year in Oakland in large part because they were able to limit Dwayne Bowe, who is by far the Chiefs best and only good receiver. Nnamdi Asomugha should be able to limit Bowe again this week.

I like the Raiders chances to win here in a game that means more to them than the Chiefs. Also, there’s a chance Cassel sits or doesn’t play much to get ready for the playoffs which would mean Brodie “0-10” Croyle would start or play extensively for the Chiefs. Even if the Raiders fall, this should be a close game and I like getting 4 points with the Raiders. Both of these teams are run first teams, especially with Nnamdi Asomugha limiting Bowe and Croyle possibly playing extensively. Those type of games are normally close games, like this one was when the Raiders beat the Chiefs by 3 in Oakland earlier this year.

Baltimore Ravens 24 Cincinnati Bengals 13

Spread: Baltimore -9.5

Pick against spread: Baltimore 1 unit (-110)

These Bengals have cost me 7 units in the last 2 weeks betting against them so naturally I was confused as to why they were having this success all of a sudden off of a 10 game losing streak. I concluded that it had something to do with the fact that Carson Palmer always seems to be at his best in December home games, something I overlooked in these past few weeks.

With that established, I think I should be safe picking against this team again this week, now on the road. However, Jerome Simpson, Andre Caldwell, and Jermaine Gresham all did great jobs getting open last week for Carson Palmer and Palmer did a great job of finding them. This offense had a lot of life last week and could show some of that again this week. This young receivers are playing with a lot more heart than Chad Ochocinco and Terrell Owens.

However, I am going to take the Ravens here. The Ravens have historically done well as double digit favorites in the John Harbaugh era and they have done well against teams with losing records, going 6-2 and 11-4 in those situations respectively. This isn’t a true double digit line, but it’s close enough.

New Orleans Saints 34 Tampa Bay Buccaneers 28

Spread: New Orleans -9.5

Pick against spread: Tampa Bay 3 units (+300)

Tampa Bay’s defense sucks. They can’t stop anyone without Aqib Talib and Gerald McCoy. They let Matt Hasselbeck march the Seahawks straight downfield before he got hurt. The only reason Charlie Whitehurst didn’t do anything is because, well, Charlie Whitehurst sucks. Before the Seattle game, they gave up 252 yards on 23 for 37 to Drew Stanton and 228 yards on 22 for 35 to Donovan McNabb in the two games they had since the Talib injury.

In their last meeting with the Saints, the Bucs gave up 475 yards and that was with Aqib Talib and Gerald McCoy in the lineup. They also had Cody Grimm, who is also hurt right now. Grimm had been doing a good job filling in for the suspended Tanard Jackson before he got. This game is also in New Orleans, rather than Tampa Bay, so it’s safe to say the Saints will move the ball well in this one.

However, unlike week 6, the Buccaneers will be able to move the ball. Josh Freeman is coming off of a career game, 21 for 26 for 237 yards and 5 touchdowns. The Buccaneers had yet to discover LeGarrette Blount week 6 so they were unable to gut the Saints’ 19^th ranked run defense. Blount had 164 yards on 18 carries against Seattle’s 16^th ranked run defense last week, so he should have another big game here and certainly will be better than Cadillac Williams, who rushed for 18 yards on 10 carries week 6.

The Buccaneers are a drastically better team than they were week 6. Their box scores show this. They haven’t lost by more than 7 points since that week 6 31-6 defeat at the hands of the Saints. They haven’t had a cupcake schedule since then either, hanging within 7 of the Ravens, 6 of the Falcons, and then once again within 4 of the Falcons. Their only other loss in that time was to the Lions, which might be why this line is so high, but if that’s the case, then Vegas is drastically underestimating the Buccaneers. This is a solid football team.

The Saints struggle as double digit favorites in the Sean Peyton era. This isn’t quite a double digit spread, but it’s close enough and their 3-11 record in that situation is hard to ignore. Finally, the Buccaneers need this game more than the Saints. The Saints are in the playoffs after last week’s victory over the Falcons and will simply be playing for seeding. In fact, if the Falcons beat the lowly Panthers, the Saints won’t be able to get higher than the 5^th seed in this game.

The Buccaneers, meanwhile, are playing to make the playoffs. They need this win (and some help) to make the playoffs. They need the Giants and Packers to lose if they want to make the playoffs, but they will be playing at the same time as those two teams so they will go into this game still able to make the playoffs.

If this spread is at 10 or 10.5 anywhere, first tell me, then take it for 4, if not, take it for 3. Don’t wait for it to go into double digits because it’s already very high as it is and it’s more likely to drop to 8.5 or 9 than go into double digits.

New York Jets 20 Buffalo Bills 17

Spread: NY Jets -1

Pick against spread: NY Jets 1 unit (+100)

Mark Sanchez practiced on Wednesday and is expected to start for the Jets, but with this game being pretty meaningless for the Jets, he might not play the whole game. The Jets can either get the #5 seed or the #6 seed and no matter which one they get, their opponent will be the Chiefs or the Colts, depending on how those two teams do in their game, something they can’t control.

However, this line is really low. The Bills aren’t a very good team and I think if the Jets play their starters for a quarter and then play their backups for 3, they could still win this one. I’m not putting anymore than 2 on it because of the general uncertainty of the whole situation, but I like the Jets in this one. 

Update: Rex Ryan has said Sanchez won’t play the whole game. The line is down for this reason and a new pick will be posted when a new line is posted. 

Update: There is no definite answer on how much Mark Sanchez will play, though he is expected to play. Darrelle Revis and Antonio Cromartie, however, could miss the entire game, which greatly hurts the Jets’ chances. There’s also no telling if any Jets starter will play the whole game, so, while the Jets seem like the right side, it’s a very risky bet on either side. 

Jacksonville Jaguars 24 Houston Texans 21 Upset Pick (+135)

Spread: Houston -3

Pick against spread: Jacksonville 2 units (-220)

The Jaguars fell flat on their faces last week as home favorites against a non-conference opponent. They’ll probably play better this week in a divisional, must win game in Houston. They’re also expected to have Maurice Jones Drew back. If he had played last week, they likely would have won, despite all the situations against them. Houston isn’t any better than Washington, who they lost to last week, so with MJD back, they have a good shot to win.

Houston, meanwhile, seems to have forgotten how to win. Whether they come back from large deficits to take the lead, and then blow it late, or blow a large lead early and lose, this team has seemingly lost in every way imaginable this season. They have one win since week 6, and that was against Rusty Smith and the Titans. There’s no way I’m betting on them in a fairly even spread. I don’t love Jacksonville, but I hate the Texans.

Update: David Garrard will underdog finger surgery this week and thus will not be available to play. Trent Edwards will start for the Jaguars. Vegas took this line down and has yet to repost it in the wake of the injury, so my new pick will be posted when the new line is posted. 

Update: With Trent Edwards starting, this line has moved to -3 in favor of Houston. As much as I hate betting on Trent Edwards, I’m not going to bet on the Texans as favorites. Not only are they false favorites (favorites after 2 or more straight losses), they flat out don’t know how to win. Besides, Houston’s secondary is so bad, Trent Edwards might have a good game here. 

Washington Redskins 26 New York Giants 23 Upset Pick (+175)

Spread: -4 NY Giants

Pick against spread: Washington 2 units (+200)

Another year, another second half Giants collapse. In their last 68 minutes, they have been outscored 73-17. They also have losses to Dallas and Philadelphia in the second half. Their only 3 wins were by 4 to the Jags, who dominated for most of the game, and the Redskins and Vikings, who didn’t show up. Eli Manning and company are turnover machines with 41 turnovers on the year, 6 more than 2^nd place Carolina. They can’t be trusted here.

The Redskins may have gotten blown out in their last matchup with the Giants, but they have bounced back well in their last 3, as they are 2-0-1 ATS and they only pushed in that one game, against the Buccaneers, because their special teams exploded. That was a single isolated incident and not a longterm issue. This game is also in Washington where the Redskins will be a lot more motivated than they were a few weeks ago in Washington.

The Giants need this win to make the playoffs and they are favored. Teams tend to struggle to cover in this situation. Based on how the Giants have played these past few weeks, that definitely could happen to them this week. Even if the Redskins don’t walk away with the win here, I like their chances to keep it within 4.

San Francisco 49ers 17 Arizona Cardinals 15

Spread: San Francisco -6.5

Pick against spread: Arizona 4 units (-440)

The San Francisco 49ers fired head coach Mike Singletary after their loss last week to the Rams, a loss that eliminated them from the playoff race. I can’t see this team getting up this week for a Cardinals team that they blew out earlier this year.

Meanwhile, the Cardinals are playing better football of late. Derek Anderson may have put his heart and soul into the shit, but he wasn’t very good. John Skelton has led them to a 2-1 record in his 3 starts, beating the Broncos and the Cowboys, and only losing by 7 to the Panthers on a 1 PM ET start on the East Coast. The Broncos and Cowboys aren’t very good, but then again neither are the 49ers.

The 49ers are favorites of 6.5 here despite their 5-10 record, a bad sign. Teams that finish 6-10 or worse are 19-49 ATS since 2002 when favored by 6 or more points. The 49ers are unable to finish better than 6-10 so this trend obviously applies. This has been my single favorite trend this season and I’m rolling with it again here.

San Diego Chargers 27 Denver Broncos 24

Spread: -3.5 San Diego

Pick against spread: Denver 1 unit (-110)

The San Diego Chargers were eliminated last week when they lost to the Cincinnati Bengals. It just goes to show, you can’t always suck for the first 2 months of the season and expect to then turn it on from November 1^st on. That was their attitude all year, but it didn’t happen.

I don’t know for sure how they’ll react, because they haven’t been eliminated in the Norv Turner/Philip Rivers era before, but I predict they’ll be extremely flat in this one because they have expected to make their comeback all season and it just never happened.

It doesn’t help that San Diego hasn’t been a good road team this year to begin with, at 2-5. Denver is still a tough place to play, especially with the way that Tim Tebow has been playing in his first 2 career starts. The Chargers aren’t the Texans, so Tebow won’t have quite as good of a game this week, but he’s still a very promising quarterback.

The problem is, we aren’t getting any line value. I was expecting this line to be at -6, even following the Chargers loss to the Bengals. I’m still taking the Broncos, because the line is more than a field goal and I think they can keep this one that close, but only for 1 unit.

Dallas Cowboys 28 Philadelphia Eagles 27 Upset Pick (+135)

Spread: Philadelphia -3

Pick against spread: Dallas 1 unit (+100)

Philadelphia is the one team whose week 17 matchup literally means absolutely nothing. They are stuck in the #3 seed no matter if they win or if they lose. Andy Reid has proven before that he will rest starters in meaningless week 17 games. It already looks as if Michael Vick won’t play at all with a quad injury, as backup Kevin Kolb has gotten all the first team reps in practice. Guys like Jeremy Maclin, DeSean Jackson, LeSean McCoy Asante Samuel, Trent Cole, among others, are not expected to play very much at all.

Kevin Kolb is a pretty good quarterback. We’ve seen him have success before in the past, but it’ll be interesting to see how he responds without Maclin and Jackson, not to mention a strong defense supporting him. Lucky for Kolb, the Cowboys defense isn’t much better than Philadelphia second team defense. The Cowboys really struggle to stop people so Kolb and company will put points on the board.

While this game means virtually nothing to the Eagles, it means a lot to the Cowboys. After this miserable season, they want to end it on a high note and a win over the Eagles would certainly be a high note. The Eagles are also a division rival and remember, the Cowboys only lost by 3 to the Eagles earlier this year so there’s a revenge factor in this one.

Stephen McGee will start for the Cowboys. He proved himself to be a decent signal caller last week, maybe even good enough to force some desperate team to trade a pick for him this offseason. Unlike Kolb, McGee will have the full use of his receivers, at least the healthy ones, which means Miles Austin, Roy Williams, and Jason Witten.  Against a second team defense, he will put some points on the board as well.

I think it would take someone with a gambling problem to put big money on this game. We simply don’t know how well or how poor the Eagles’ backups will play. Obviously if they play badly, the Cowboys have a very good shot at winning. However, if they play well, the Eagles have the better signal caller in this one and are the home team, which would make it very tough for the Cowboys to win. I’m taking the points for 1. The Cowboys should win this one, but it’s a very risky bet.

St. Louis Rams 27 Seattle Seahawks 9

Spread: St. Louis -2.5

Pick against spread: St. Louis 5 units (-550)

The Seattle Seahawks have to have set the record for the worst team to ever be alive in the playoff race week 17. They are 6-9 right now. Since week 6, they have 3 wins, against Jimmy Clausen, Max Hall, and Derek Anderson. Their other three wins were against an early season form Chargers team, a slumping Bears team, and the San Francisco 49ers.

All of their 9 losses have been by 15 points or more. They have a differential of -117. The only teams who have worse differentials, Denver, Buffalo, Arizona, and Carolina. Oh, and to make things worse, their starting quarterback hurt his back on a non-contact play in a meaningless game last week and is not expected to start this week. Instead, it will be Clipboard Jesus, Charlie Whitehurst.

With Whitehurst starting, I give this team no shot. I would have given them a bit of a shot with Hasselbeck, because, in that case, they would be a good home team with a veteran quarterback facing a bad road team with a rookie quarterback in a must win game. However, without Hasselbeck, they don’t have a shot.

 Not only is Whitehurst inexperienced (less experienced than Bradford actually), but he’s also terrible. This team simply can’t move the ball when he’s in the game. In his one start, he was able to lead his team to 7 points all game, and that was a home game against the Giants so you can throw out that Seattle is a good home team with Whitehurst starting. Whitehurst was once again unable to move the ball in the Tampa Bay game, so this is a recurring thing. Tampa Bay’s defense isn’t even good, especially missing Aqib Talib and Gerald McCoy.

St. Louis’ defense is clearly superior to the Bucs’ defense. In fact, their defense might mirror the Giants defense a lot. St. Louis head coach Steve Spagnuolo is a former defensive coordinator for the Giants and his pass rush is just as good as the Giants. The Rams have 41 sacks and the Giants 43. The Rams should have no problem stopping the Seahawks offense.

Sam Bradford might have some jitters on the road in a hostile environment in a must win game, but if Whitehurst plays terribly, this crowd is going to get quiet fast and Bradford should still be able to have a good game against a terrible Seattle defense. Bradford also has the experience edge (in terms of in game experience) so he might be the calmer of the two quarterbacks here. Not to mention, he probably has a lot more confidence in his abilities than Whitehurst.

If Hasselbeck, who has not yet been officially ruled out, plays, I’ll change my pick. It’ll still be St. Louis, but for fewer units. Bradford isn’t quite the same QB on the road as he is at home, but he has two road wins this year against the Broncos and Cardinals. Those teams aren’t any good, but then again, neither are Charlie Whitehurst and the Seahawks.