Overall picks: 10-6

ATS Picks: 6-8-2 (-670)

Lock picks: 0-1

Upset picks: 1-1

Miami Dolphins 20 Minnesota Vikings 23

Spread: -6 Vikings

Pick against spread: Miami (2 units) +200

I believe, the main reason why Brett Favre came back from retirement, despite a bad ankle, was not necessarily to win a Super Bowl, but rather to beat the Saints, against whom he lost to end last season, a team that had been bad mouthing him all offseason. Beating the Saints in that opener was what he came back for and now that he didn’t do it, it’ll be interesting to see what kind of attitude he comes out with this week. Will he play like a dejected 40 year old quarterback with a bad ankle, or will it motivate him to play through the pain? More likely, I think it’s the former, which is bad news for the Vikings. Favre played bad enough last week in a discombobulated loss to the Saints and it’s not like his supporting cast is going to help him all that much. Favre was pressured on almost every snap against the Saints and it’s obvious he missed Sidney Rice, as the only Minnesota wideout who looked remotely decent last week was Greg Camarillo, who, as of a month ago, was a Miami Dolphin.

That being said, the Dolphins defense isn’t the Saints defense. I think the Vikings will actually be able to put some points up this week. The Dolphins secondary is not very good, though Trent Edwards made them look great last week in a win against the lowly Bills. Let’s not forget Chad Henne didn’t look too sharp last week either, as he appeared to have regressed after a strong finish to last season, his first as a starter. The Vikings are still my pick to win this game, but I’m not going to take them against a 6 point spread.

Arizona Cardinals 20 Atlanta Falcons 34

Spread: -7 Falcons

Pick against spread: Atlanta (3 units) +300

The fact that the Cardinals almost lost to the Rams last week is not a good sign. Derek Anderson didn’t look nearly as good as his stats looked as he often threw off target. If it wasn’t for a major breakdown in coverage for the Rams late, Anderson probably would not have thrown that game winning touchdown to Fitzgerald. The Falcons are better defensively than the Rams and should force Anderson into many incompletions and interceptions. Anderson is the type of quarterback who can put points on the board in a hurry with his big arm so the Falcons could give up some points here, but Anderson’s turnovers are going to turn into shorter fields for the Falcons offense, who are a lot better than the Steelers made them look last week.

Baltimore Ravens 21 Cincinnati Bengals 13

Spread: -3 Ravens

Pick against spread: Baltimore (3 units) -330

The Bengals didn’t look very good offensively last week, until the Patriots switched to a prevent defense, to force the Bengals into short completions and run out the clock. That was the Patriots inexperienced defense they were faced. Imagine what Baltimore is going to do to them. The Ravens looked amazed last week defensively and it wasn’t just because Mark Sanchez didn’t test them deep. That run defense stuffed the run in 1^st and 2^nd down and forced the Jets into tough deep throws. The Ravens secondary is depleted by injury right now and could have trouble covering guys like TO, Ochocinco, Shipley, and Gresham, but if they can stuff the run early, they’ll limit this offense a lot. The Bengals bread and butter is the run with Cedric Benson, who will be taken out of this game. If the Ravens can avoid stupid penalties/turnovers offensively, they’ll be able to score enough to win this low scoring contest.

Kansas City Chiefs 21 Cleveland 16 Upset Pick

Spread: -2 Browns

Pick against spread: Kansas City (3 units) +300

The Chiefs offense, especially their passing game, didn’t look very good in an upset win on Monday Night Football over the San Diego Chargers. The only reason they won is because they forced turnovers which led to points and because they got a long run from Jamaal Charles. Turnovers are notoriously inconsistent from week to week so that’s not a reliable way to win ballgames. However, the Browns are a very turnover prone team. Throughout the entire preseason, Jerome Harrison struggled with fumbles, something he continued to do in week 1. Peyton Hillis, the backup running back, also joined the fumble party week 1, and don’t even get me started on Jake Delhomme, who is capable of throwing 3 picks on any given Sunday no matter the opponent. The Chiefs are going to take a few takeaways that lead directly to touchdowns/field goals and that’s how they’re going to win this ugly contest.

If Jake Delhomme is hurt and misses this game, which is looking like a possibility, I give the Browns a better shot, but I still pick the Chiefs. Seneca Wallace is not the type of guy who you can count on to lead a team to victory.

Chicago Bears 14 Dallas Cowboys 20

Spread: -7 ½ Cowboys

Pick against spread: Chicago (1 unit) +100

Neither of these teams looked very good week 1. The Bears won, but could have easily lost. The Cowboys lost, but could have easily won if Alex Barron didn’t feel it was necessary to strange his man in protection on what would have been the game winning touchdown play. The Cowboys are still the better team here with all of their offensive weapons, but I’m definitely not picking them to cover that ridiculous 7.5 point spread. Tony Romo is going to be under pressure all night because the Cowboys offensive line can’t pass protect. Julius Peppers should have a field day on Doug Free and we all know about Alex Barron and how penalty prone he is on the right side of that line. Jay Cutler is going to be under pressure a lot too as Chicago’s mediocre line attempts to keep DeMarcus Ware away from Cutler as Cutler sets up for a Mike Martz patented 9 step drop.

 

Philadelphia Eagles 26 Detroit Lions 17

Spread: -6 ½ Eagles

Pick against spread: Philadelphia (1 unit) -110

If Matt Stafford were starting this game at 100%, over Shaun Hill, I would pick the Lions. The Eagles didn’t look very good at all last week until Michael Vick came into the game and that’s only because Vick caught the Packers by surprise. They were not expecting to have to face a running quarterback like Vick for more than 5-7 snaps. The Lions defense will be better prepared, but they’re still not very good and Shaun Hill is going to have his work cut out for him trying to keep him.

The strength of the Lions defense is their defensive line. Ndamukong Suh had a strong first game of his career week 1 and should have another one with Eagles center Jamaal Jackson out for the season. The Eagles offensive line was bad to begin with, but it just got a whole lot worse with Jackson out, especially on the interior of the line where Suh plays. Suh is going to take on blockers and free up guys like Cliff Avril, Kyle Vanden Bosch, and Corey Williams to pressure Vick. The issue, Vick can handle pressure well, by simply evading it and scrambling. He’s not a great passing quarterback. He’s never been one, even before his stint in the big house. However, he should be able to lead successful drives, provided he makes smart decisions, against this Lions defense as their back 7, especially their secondary, is miserable.

Shaun Hill is a game manager, but he’ll have to throw downfield a lot more to keep up, something he’s simply not capable of doing. It doesn’t help that, if he gets down early, he’ll be under significant pressure. Jeff Backus is not an adequate blindside protector and Trent Cole is going to destroy him the way Julius Peppers did week 1.

Buffalo Bills 13 Green Bay Packers 31 lock pick

Spread: -14 Packers

Pick against spread: Packers (2 units) +200

My lock picks should be called unlock picks. Over the past 10 weeks, my lock picks are 6-4, a worse win/loss percentage than my non-lock picks, which sit in the .660 range. However, this one I’m confident about. The Bills are a mess of a team incapable of leading a successful offensive drive and the Packers are absolutely an offensive juggernaut who will win this game in a blowout. I pick them against the spread, even though the spread is -14, which is saying a lot.

Pittsburgh Steelers 16 Tennessee Titans 21

Spread: +5 ½ Titans

Pick against spread: Steelers (1 unit) +100

The Steelers won week 1, a surprise to many, though not to me because I picked them. However, I don’t expect them to repeat that game. The Titans won’t be as unprepared as the Falcons. They know what’s coming with Dennis Dixon and not to take this team, especially this defense, lightly. The Titans also have a better pass rush, which means young Dennis Dixon is going to be under a lot of pressure from all spots on the field. Pittsburgh’s offensive line is horrible. They won’t be able to protect Dixon, which could lead to some Dixon turnovers. The Titans also are looking at this game as a revenge game for week 1 in 2009. These are completely different teams now. Vince Young is now the Titans starter over Kerry Collins. Big Ben is suspended and Dennis Dixon is in. Chris Johnson is also regarded as the best running back in the league. All of 3 of those things favor the Titans winning this rematch and improving to 10-2 since Vince Young took over week 7 last year.

Seattle Seahawks 17 Denver Broncos 19

Spread: -3 ½ Broncos

Pick against spread: Seahawks (1 unit) -110

The Seahawks looked great to start this season as Matt Hasselbeck looked 29 again. However, he looked 29 again to start last season, going 25 for 36 for 279 yards and 3 scores. By week 2, he looked like an old man again. I expect something similar to happen to the soon to be 35 year old Hasselbeck this year. However, the Broncos aren’t a good team either. They’ll have trouble pressuring Hasselbeck, which is really what turns him into an old man. I think the Broncos will win over a now overrated Seahawks squad, but I won’t pick them to cover, just in case.

St. Louis Rams 16 Oakland Raiders 23

Spread: -3 ½ Raiders

Pick against spread: Raiders (2 units) -220 

The Raiders lost pretty badly last week to the Titans, but the Rams aren’t the Titans. They are bad. The Rams are 6-43 in their last 49 games. They should be a much easier opponent for the Raiders in their home opener. The Raiders are better then they looked in their messy opener. Provided they keep the mental mistakes to a minimum, they’ll both win and cover here.

New England Patriots 28 New York Jets 13

Spread: -3 Patriots

Pick against spread: Patriots (4 units) -440 

The Patriots looked amazing week 1, even better than their 14 point win would suggest. They legitimately looked like the 2007 Patriots and were good in every facet of the game, especially that amazing offense. The Jets were a mess in their first game, tying a franchise record for least first downs in a game. The Patriots defense isn’t the Ravens defense, but it still remains to be seen if Mark Sanchez can beat a team through the air. If not, he’ll have to rely on an ancient LT and a fumble prone Shonn Grenne. And if Tom Brady puts points up on the board fast, forget it, Sanchez won’t be able to do anything to keep up. The Jets defense is good, but even if Darrelle Revis, who looked sluggish by his standards, takes Randy Moss out of the game, I don’t know if you can count on Antonio Cromartie and Kyle Wilson to shut down their guys and Tom Brady is an equal opportunity quarterback. If you’re open, he’ll throw it to you and he’s got plenty of solid options, more than he had last year when he had a strong passing performance against the Jets in a Patriot win.

Jacksonville Jaguars 17 San Diego Chargers 23

Spread: -7 Chargers

Pick against spread: Jaguars (1 unit) -110

The Chargers do this every September and get away with it every September. I am very hesitant to pick the Chargers this week, but I will against a Jacksonville team that barely beat a confused Broncos team, and now has to travel 3 times zones to San Diego. The balls will be flying through the air in warm, sunny San Diego. Philip Rivers is one of the best in the business as a quarterback and the Jaguars simply can’t stop anyone through the air. I’m not going to pick the Chargers to cover though. It’s too risky against a ridiculous -7 spread, after that abysmal loss week 1 on Monday Night Football.

Houston Texans 28 Washington Redskins 27

Spread: -3 Texans

Pick against spread: Washington (1 unit) -10

The Texans need to prove two things this week. That they can avoid a hangover after the biggest win in franchise history and win again and that they can win with a balanced attack. Arian Foster won’t do that every week. He’ll be good, but he won’t do that every week. Now they need to balance that running attack with their strong passing attack and if they can do that, this is an elite offense that can win any game. If not, they will once again struggle to make the playoffs. I expect them to barely come out a win against a good Washington squad here, just because I think they’ll be able to balance their attack well and put a ton of points on the board in a comeback win. I do expect them to trail early though as a young team coming off that amazing win.

New York Giants 21 Indianapolis Colts 34

Spread: -6 Colts

Pick against spread: Colts (3 units) +300

There’s no way the Colts drop 2 to open the season. Forget the alleged Super Bowl loss hangover. This is a mature team that’s won a Super Bowl before. Losing one won’t phase them as much as it would a team that lost their first Super Bowl. Peyton Manning is too good and I expect him to have a great game and win and cover in this game against his younger brother Eli.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers 28 Carolina Panthers 31

Spread: -3 ½ Panthers

Pick against spread: Buccaneers (1 unit) +100

Matt Moore should have better game this week, against Tampa Bay rather than New York, and they should win, but it’ll be a close shoot out game. Josh Freeman is better than people give him credit for, though I like Moore in a close game more than Freeman. However, I’m not picking the Panthers to cover the spread.

New Orleans Saints 35 San Francisco 49ers 24

Spread: -6 Saints

Pick against spread: Saints (2 units) -220

The 49ers shouldn’t panic if they lose this game because they can still win the division easily if they do. They are the most talented team in the division, plus, it’s very likely that every NFC West team loses this week. That being said, the 49ers won’t win this game. They’ll be more motivated than the Saints having a rare Monday Night home game, but the 49ers are exactly the type of team the Saints beat and that’s a team with an unsteady quarterback. Brees will dominate this mediocre 49ers secondary, put points on the board, and force Alex Smith to match, which won’t happen. He’ll just commit turnovers which is what the Saints defense loves and what fuels the Saints offense. Think Saints/Falcons from 2009, either of their meetings, and that’s what this game will look like.