Last week overall: 10-6

Last week ATS: 8-7-1 (+50)

Overall picks: 20-12

ATS Picks: 14-15-3 (-610)

Lock picks: 1-1

Upset picks: 2-1

San Francisco 49ers 28 Kansas City Chiefs 13

Spread: -3 San Francisco

Pick against spread: San Francisco (3 units) -330

The 49ers are 0-2 and the Chiefs are 2-0, but the 49ers are still favored on the road. There’s a reason for that. The 49ers have looked better than the Chiefs in their two games. The 49ers could have easily won that game against New Orleans last week if it wasn’t for some mental errors. The Chiefs have won two games in spite of Matt Cassel, thanks to a pick six, a long run for a touchdown, a punt return touchdown, 3 field goals, and an interception that set up a really short field. In fact, the only touchdown drive that involved a pass by Matt Cassel this season for the Chiefs was a mere 13 yards long, after a takeaway. I don’t expect those type of things to continue against the 49ers. The 49ers now the Chiefs can’t beat them too much offensively, especially through the air, so they can take away the run with their strong run defense, force Matt Cassel to convert 3^rd and long which would be disastrous, and grind out the clock with efficient throws by Alex Smith and runs by Frank Gore.

Buffalo Bills 10 New England Patriots 31 Lock pick

Spread: -15 New England

Pick against spread: New England (2 units) -220

The Patriots offense didn’t look good last week and their defense looked worse. However, the Bills are the worst team in the league. They simply can’t do anything offensively. Tom Brady has also only lost back-to-back regular season games once since 2003. This team is great at bouncing back with Brady at the helm. They also haven’t lost to the Bills since 2003. Everything here says the Patriots can’t lose this one, so they’re my lock pick, but that 15 point spread scares me. Picking a team to win by 15 is a very risky choice, but I’m doing it anyway and going with my guy that this one will be a blowout.

Detroit Lions 21 Minnesota Vikings 28

Spread: -11 Minnesota

Pick against spread: Detroit (2 units) -220

The Vikings are going to bounce back this week. Brett Favre doesn’t start season 0-3. He’s only done it once in his 350 year career. The Lions defense isn’t as bad as the one they rolled out early last season, which Favre and co just demolished, but you’d still have a hard time naming 5 defenses you’d rather face when you need to get your offense back on track than the Lions. However, that spread is insane. I don’t think a winless team should ever be favored by more than 10, unless it’s week 2 and it’s a really bad opponent. The Lions aren’t that bad. They’re going to lose this game, but they’ve done a good job of hanging with teams, losing their 2 games by a combined 4 points.

Atlanta Falcons 21 New Orleans 31

Spread: -4 New Orleans

Pick against spread: New Orleans (2 units) -220

Simply put, you don’t pick a team to win in New Orleans, unless of course that team is the Saints. Drew Bress has looked decent, efficient, but not amazing in his first 2 games this season. However, you just know he’s ready to explode and can at any moment for 30+ points. The Falcons don’t have a very good secondary, with no one opposite a solid, but overrated and overpaid Dunta Robinson at cornerback. That’s going to force Matt Ryan to match, which is going to force him into turnovers by New Orleans’ blitz heavy and opportunistic defense. That’s what he did last year. That’s how the Saints won last year in this matchup and in many. I expect them to do it again, even with top interceptor Darren Sharper injured on the PUP.

Tennessee Titans 21 New York Giants 23

Spread: -3 Giants

Pick against spread: Titans (1 unit) +100

This was honestly the toughest matchup for me to pick this week. I don’t really have a good read for either team. The Giants were extremely talented coming into this season and looked great in their week 1 opener. However, they were playing the Panthers, who, as has been revealed, aren’t very good. Then they got steamrolled week 2, showing a lot of the same problem that they had last year as they went 8-8, but they were playing the Colts. The Titans looked great to end last season, won week 1 easily, and looked like a potential sleeper, but they were playing the Raiders, who, has it turns out, still aren’t very good. Week 2 they lost on ugly one to the Steelers, that they could have won if they didn’t commit 7 turnovers, but at the same time they were playing an amazing Steelers defense. Also in that game, Vince Young was benched. He will start this week, but there’s no telling how he’ll respond after being benched. Last time he was benched, he went MIA and, according to rumors, tried to kill himself. Simply put, I don’t really have any idea who will win. The Giants are more talented, but don’t always play like it. Nonetheless, I’ll pick them, but not against that tiny spread, as this is way too unpredictable and evenly matched a matchup. When a matchup like this comes around, I normally go underdog, just because, all things equal, and underdog has a better shot to win an against the spread bet.

Pittsburgh Steelers 17 Tampa Bay Buccaneers 13

Spread: -3 Steelers

Pick against spread: Steelers (1 unit) +100

Week one, the Steelers defense confused the hell out of young Matt Ryan. Week two, the Steelers defense confused the hell out of young Vince Young. Why wouldn’t they confuse the hell out of young Josh Freeman this week? Freeman is a good quarterback and I definitely don’t think his early season success this year is a fluke, especially with a partially broken thumb. However, so are Ryan and Young. The Steelers are just that good. The Steelers’ offense isn’t going to do a lot with Charlie Batch at the helm, but I expect they can get the points necessary to win this ugly one. Their running game is solid, Charlie Batch is a decent game manager, and the Buccaneers young defense, while improved, isn’t great.

Cincinnati Bengals 19 Carolina Panthers 13

Spread: -3 ½ Bengals

Pick against spread: Bengals (3 units) +300

Last week, Cincinnati picked off Joe Flacco four times for an ugly 15-10 win. Jimmy Clausen is making his first career start for the Panthers. Panthers quarterbacks have been horrible in recent memory, with both Jake Delhomme and Matt Moore simply unable to avoid turnovers. A lot of that blame has to fall on the quarterbacks supporting cast. I don’t think Jake Delhomme and Matt Moore are that horrible. The Panthers receivers can’t get open and all of a sudden, their once proud line, can’t block at all, especially in pass protection. Jimmy Clausen is a solid quarterback and has a history at Notre Dame of playing with poor supporting casts, but still, he is a rookie and his supporting cast is crap. I expect him to make a few mistakes in this one and not have a great game. Carson Palmer and the Bengals offense struggled in their win over the Ravens, kicking a mere 5 field goals, 2 of which would have never happened if the Ravens defensive backs could catch, despite forcing 4 turnovers. However, the Panthers defense is far from the Ravens defense. Palmer should be able to put up enough points in this one to win this close one.

Cleveland Browns 10 Baltimore Ravens 27

Spread: -11 Ravens

Pick against spread: Ravens (2 units) -220

Joe Flacco, following his strong preseason, was expected to take his game to another level in his 3^rd year and make the Ravens a legitimate Super Bowl contender. In 2 games, he has 1 touchdown and 5 picks. Not exactly what people expected. However, he’s still a strong quarterback and this game against the lowly Browns is exactly what he needs to get back on track. The Ravens have had a tough early season, going to New York to play the Jets and then to Cincinnati to play the Bengals, two road games against 2009 playoff teams in 2 weeks. Joe Flacco had a particularly tough start to the season, as the Bengals and Jets both have elite pass defenses. I expect this team to come home and destroy the Browns in their home opener this week.

 

Dallas Cowboys 27 Houston Texans 28

Spread: -3 Texans

Pick against spread: Dallas (1 unit) +100

This should be an interesting game. How many people predicted three weeks ago that this would be a matchup of the 2-0 Texans and the 0-2 Cowboys? The Texans have a chance to make another statement this week, something that’ll go a long way to proving themselves as legitimate Super Bowl contenders. The Cowboys, on the other hand, need to win. Very few teams make the playoffs after starting 0-3. I am taking the home team, the Texans here and going with the hot hand. The Texans have just as much offensive fire power as the Cowboys and have their heads right, right now, but I think it’ll be close. I’m not betting against the Cowboys are underdogs. You don’t pass up a chance to take a team with this much talent as an underdog, even against an opponent like the Texans with such a small spread.

Washington Redskins 28 St. Louis Rams 10

Spread: -4 ½ Washington

Pick against spread: Redskins (4 units) -440 

The small spread in this game has people wondering if Vegas knows something we don’t. I can’t think of anything that could possibly be to make the spread that low. Did Donovan McNabb secretly die? I’m going to jump all over this small spread and take the Redskins in a blowout over the improving, but not quite there yet Rams. If Donovan McNabb can tear apart Houston’s secondary, what will he do to St. Louis’?

Philadelphia Eagles 31 Jacksonville Jaguars 23

Spread: -3 Eagles

Pick against spread: Eagles (3 units) +300

The Jaguars defense is pitiful. They needed to add a defensive end or a cornerback through the draft in the first round last year, but they went with a defensive tackle. As surprisingly well as Tyson Alualu is playing, he doesn’t have the positional value to make a huge impact on a defense like an end or a cornerback. LeSean McCoy and Michael Vick should both have a field day against this crappy defense.

Indianapolis Colts 34 Denver Broncos 13

Spread: -6 Colts

Pick against spread: Indianapolis (5 units) +500

Peyton Manning was going to destroy Denver’s defense like he did last year anyway, but with Champ Bailey likely to miss this game, it’s just not even fair. I don’t know why the spread for this one is only -6. The Broncos are not even remotely a good team and are still extremely overrated by Vegas after going 1-1 over an easy schedule and looking good against a Seahawks team that is overrated as well, following a fluke win over the confused 49ers.

Oakland Raiders 19 Arizona Cardinals 10 upset pick

Spread: -4 ½ Cardinals

Pick against spread: Raiders (4 units) +400

Why anyone would make the Cardinals favorites after their 34 point loss last week is beyond me. The Raiders aren’t that bad. Bruce Gradkowski is likely going to be the starter for this one for the Raiders, which isn’t a bad move. Gradkowski knows how to rally a team and should be able to lead this team to a victory in a low scoring affair against the lowly Cardinals.

San Diego Chargers 35 Seattle Seahawks 17

Spread: -6 Seahawks

Pick against spread: Chargers (3 units) -330

This could be an interesting one. The Chargers always suck to begin the year, like as a rule, but the Seahawks simply aren’t as good of a team as their week 1 performance showed. Once Matt Hasselbeck plays more games and takes more hits, he’s going to start throwing more picks. The Chargers have a pass rush that can actually get to the quarterback well so that doesn’t bode well for Hasselbeck. Philip Rivers might not play well again, as was the case against Jacksonville last week, but, as was the case last week, that might not matter if the Chargers defense can create pressure and turnovers.

New York Jets 21 Miami Dolphins 16 Upset pick

Spread: -2 ½ Dolphins (3 units) +300

Chad Henne has looked good on paper this year, but the facts are, he has one touchdown, a YPA of 6, and has led his team to 2 touchdowns this season, despite having an amazing running game behind him and despite not playing the best of defenses, the Bills, and Vikings. I’m not going to pick him to win a game where, either the other team has an amazing quarterback that Henne will have to throw a lot to match, or the other team has a strong run defense that will force Henne to pass. The Jets have the latter, and may have the former, though I’m not ready to crown the Sanchize after one game. I don’t expect Henne to be able to create enough through the air. He could. He certainly has the capability to be able to, with his strong arm, but until he does, I’m not picking him to win this game, especially having to throw against the Jets still tough secondary sans Revis.

Green Bay Packers 35 Chicago Bears 20

Spread: -3 Packers (4 units) -440

The Bears are the league’s most overrated team. They won two games they could have easily lost, despite the fact that Cutler is playing out of his mind. Cutler plays out of his mind sometimes, but not always and they are still barely winning. I doubt he’ll have that good of a game here against the packers strong defense. He certainly didn’t last year. Clay Matthews is a beast. Guns don’t kill people. Clay Matthews kills people. He has 6 sacks in 2 games and you can bet he’ll have a sack or two or three in this one, against a patchwork Chicago offensive line. They were able to block the Cowboys last week, because the Cowboys didn’t adjust. The Packers will adjust and they will destroy Cutler and force interceptions and incompletions against this amazing defense. And I haven’t even talked about Aaron Rodgers yet. Simply put, this one is going to be a whole lot more of a blowout than people expect.