Last week overall: 8-8
Last week ATS: 7-9 (-320/-7%)
Overall picks: 28-20
ATS Picks: 21-24-3 (-930/-7%)
Lock picks: 2-1
Upset picks: 3-2
San Francisco 20 Atlanta Falcons 23
Spread: -7 Falcons
Pick against spread: 49ers 2 units (+200)
The Falcons just won an emotional contest, against their rival Saints, in emotional fashion. They got so geared up for that game and had to go all out to win, that I doubt they’ll be 100% in it to play the 0-3 49ers this week. The 49ers, meanwhile, are desperate they need a win. All that being said, Atlanta is simply the superior team. Matt Ryan should pick apart this 49ers’ secondary, the way Matt Hasselbeck, Drew Brees, and Matt Cassel, yes even Matt Cassel, did before him. It’ll be closer than the public expects, but I’ve got the Falcons winning in a close one, but failing to cover.
New York Jets 24 Buffalo Bills 12
Spread: -6 Jets
Pick against spread: Jets 3 units (+300)
The Bills scored 30 points last week, 11 more than they did in the previous 2 weeks combined. However, they were playing the Patriots. Now they get the Jets. Good luck with that. The Bills aren’t going to score very much in this one. I’d say no more than 17 points. Mark Sanchez has led this offense to 59 points in the last two weeks combined against the Patriots and Dolphins. He should be able to lead his team to enough points to win this one and win it by more than that 6 point spread.
Cincinnati Bengals 19 Cleveland Browns 12 2 units
Spread: -3 Bengals
Pick against spread: Bengals 2 units (-220)
Carson Palmer isn’t a very good quarterback. He doesn’t have the arm strength to scare defenses and open up running lanes for Cedric Benson. That being said, he does have an amazing defense behind him. You saw what they did to Jimmy Clausen and Joe Flacco. Imagine what they’ll do to Seneca Wallace. It’s not going to take a lot of points for the Bengals to win this one, especially against an average at best Cleveland stop unit. I think Palmer will get it done and cover that mysterious tiny spread.
Detroit Lions 19 Green Bay Packers 31 1 unit
Spread: -14 ½ Packers
Pick against spread: Lions 1 unit (+100)
Taking a team against a spread of more than 2 touchdowns when it just lost last week and is coming off a shortened week thanks to a Monday Night game is really risky. The Packers lost the game for themselves last week, but are still a great offensive unit. However, Ndamukong Suh could possibly cause the same sort of trouble for Green Bay’s offensive line that Julius Peppers and the Bears did on Monday Night. This Detroit defensive line is great and completely revamped. That’ll take some of the pressure off of their miserable secondary as they try to stop the aerial attack of Aaron Rodgers and company. They’re not going to win this, but I’ll take the Lions given 14.5 points.
Denver Broncos 16 Tennessee Titans 30
Spread: -7 Titans
Pick against spread: Titans 3 units (-330)
The Broncos stink against the run. Now they have to stop Chris Johnson. Good luck with that. I think there’s a very reasonable chance CJ2K goes over 200 yards in this one and that’ll be huge for the Titans. This is clearly a run based offense. Vince Young struggles when relied on to create points in the absence of a strong running game. You saw what happened when Pittsburgh held Chris Johnson to 38 yards. They lost. With the exception of that loss, the Titans have two double digit wins so I think they’re still better than given credit for. I’ll take them to beat the overrated Broncos easily.
Seattle Seahawks 13 St. Louis 19 Upset pick
Spread: -1 ½ Seahawks
Pick against spread: Rams 3 units (+300)
The Seahawks are like Jekyll and Hyde home and away. This team is 3-14 since 2008 on the road. They won last week at home on the strength of their home crowd. And also on the strength of two kick return touchdowns. That won’t happen again. Those things are very inconsistent. The Rams won last week and looked good in the process. I expect them to protect their home turf and win in an upset fashion over the Seahawks.
Carolina Panthers 16 New Orleans 34
Spread: -14 Saints
Pick against spread: Saints 1 unit (-110)
I know I said it’s almost never a good idea to take a team coming off of a loss against a 2 touchdown spread, but I’m doing it here. This is not an even matchup at all. Drew Brees should finally break the 30 point mark this week against a weak Carolina defense. The only reason he didn’t weeks 2 and 3 is because the other team was able to win the time of possession battle. That won’t happen this week. John Fox no longer knows how to write a game plan and Jimmy Clausen isn’t capable of moving the chains consistently against a defense as complex as the Saints. Last year rookie quarterbacks, Freeman, Sanchez, and Stafford, all played New Orleans’ defense and all 3 stunk. With the Saints winning the time of possession battle, they’ll break 30 and Jimmy Clausen is going to have a hard time staying with 2 touchdowns of that, with that crappy supporting cast, against that defense.
Baltimore Ravens 12 Pittsburgh Steelers 17 2 units
Spread: -2 Steelers
Pick against spread: Steelers 2 units (-220)
The Steelers’ first 3 opponents’ quarterbacks are a combined 92 for 147 for 1085 yards 12 touchdowns and 1 pick in games not played against the Steelers and a combined 54 for 85 for 504 yards no touchdowns and 4 picks. Those three quarterbacks, young quarterbacks, Vince Young, Matt Ryan, and Josh Freeman. Joe Flacco is a young quarterback. Why won’t he struggle? He did it against the Bengals and I expect him to throw interceptions here. Forget having Ray Rice to help him. Even if Rice does play, the Steelers held Michael Turner and Chris Johnson under 50 yards this year. Rice isn’t doing anything this week even if he does play. That’ll make things so much easier for the Pittsburgh offense who will win this close one in a hard fought trench battle.
Houston Texans 28 Oakland Raiders 17
Spread: -3 ½ Texans
Pick against spread: Texans 3 units (+300)
The Texans shouldn’t have any problem running the football against the Raiders. Arian Foster is a great running back and the Raiders can’t stop the run. However, the passing game should be a concern. Andre Johnson either won’t play or will be limited and have Nnamdi Asomugha on him. That means Schaub will have to look to other options. Schaub is a good quarterback, but can he be Peyton Manning and have a strong game in spite of his receivers. Last time the Texans played the Raiders, the Raiders shut down Johnson and won. However, I think this is a more balanced Texans team and a more mature Matt Schaub so I’ll take them to easily outscore the lowly Raiders by more than 4.
Indianapolis Colts 31 Jacksonville Jaguars 20
Spread: -8 Colts
Pick against spread: Colts 2 units (-220)
The Jaguars always play the Colts tough. The Jaguars match up well with the Colts. The Jaguars have lost to the Colts by more than 8 twice in their last 16 meetings. That said, I’m taking the Colts to beat the Jaguars more than 8. The reason the Jaguars have had decent success in the past against the Colts is their running game. The Colts have never been able to stop the run. However, MJD is playing hurt right now. He’s not right. They’re running game shouldn’t strike fear in anyone’s hearts. They’ll run decent, but David Garrard is going to have to make some things happen himself. Peyton Manning might have a perfect passer rating in this game. The Jaguars defense hasn’t stopped anyone through the air since like 2007 (I wish I were exaggerating). Peyton Manning should have a field day and Garrard won’t be able to keep up.
Washington Redskins 24 Philadelphia Eagles 19 Upset Pick
Spread: -6 Eagles
Pick against spread: Redskins 4 units (+400)
The Eagles are vastly overrated right now. Michael Vick played two good quarterbacks in garbage time against a Packer team that wasn’t expecting him and then destroys two crappy defenses like Detroit and Jacksonville and all of a sudden he’s their savior, better than McNabb was, and a top 5 quarterback? I’m not buying it. McNabb is still the much better quarterback here and he has the better supporting cast. The Eagles defense isn’t very good. They never replaced Sheldon Brown opposite Asante Samuel. Even Shaun Hill led his team to 32 points against them. Plus McNabb knows them. He’s practiced against this defense and this scheme was 10 years and when that type of familiarity is there, it normally is in favor of the quarterback, especially if it’s a smart quarterback. Also, McNabb is hungry. He’s secretly pissed at the Eagles and their fans and everyone who has Vick is better than him. Expect him to have a monster game, with the Redskins actually decent defense limiting Vick’s effectiveness through the air, and the Redskins to win. That -6 spread for the Eagles is ridiculous. This should be easy money this week.
Arizona Cardinals 12 San Diego Chargers 31 Lock Pick
Spread: -9 Chargers
Pick against spread: Chargers 2 units (+200)
The Chargers seem to have a home/away Jekyll/Hyde type thing going on as well. They played great at home week 2 against Jacksonville, but lost in Kansas City and Seattle in pathetic fashion. However, they are still a good team. The Cardinals aren’t going to return 2 kickoffs for touchdowns like the Seahawks did. They don’t have anyone like Leon Washington on the roster. This game is in San Diego. They’ll have a more prepared Marcus McNeill this week, after he ended his holdout mid last week. I expect this one to be similar to the Jacksonville game. The Cardinals and Jaguars are similar in that they both suck. I am hesitant to make the Chargers my lock pick this early in the season, but I will anyway. I’m just not putting more than 2 units on this one. The Chargers have burned me before.
Chicago Bears 23 New York Giants 20 Upset pick
Spread: -3 ½ Giants
Pick against spread: Bears 2 units (-220)
I don’t really know what to make of this game, but the Bears have played better than the Giants this season so I see no reason why the Giants should be favored by 3 and a half points. For that reason, it’ll put a small amount on the Bears against the spread, but I think this should be a close one. I don’t have a solid read on the Giants at all. They’re really talented, but playing like crap. The Bears are getting really lucky every week, have a strong run defense and a strong passing game, the team of team the Giants struggle against, so I’ll take them to win.
New England Patriots 34 Miami Dolphins 26
Spread: – 1 ½ Patriots
Pick against spread: Patriots 2 units (+200)
The Dolphins defense looked horrible last week allowing 31 to the Jets. Without Joey Porter and Jason Taylor, they are unable to mask their secondaries flaws and teams can rip right through them unless the other team doesn’t have a good quarterback or the Dolphins can win the time of possession battle. The Patriots offense is too good for either of those two things to happen. Chad Henne is still not someone I trust to when a game where he has to out throw the opposing team. They Dolphins best shot is if they can grind it out and take the time of possession battle that way. The Patriots aren’t good against the run and the Dolphins can definitely run, but I’ll go with Brady over Henne here.
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