Last week overall: 9-5
Last week ATS: 8-6 (+$680/+19%)
Overall picks: 37-25 (.597)
ATS Picks: 29-30-3 (-$250/-1%)
Lock picks: 3-1
Upset picks: 5-3
Jacksonville Jaguars 28 Buffalo Bills 31 Upset Pick
Spread: -1 1/2 Jacksonville
Pick against spread: Buffalo (2 units) -220
The Jacksonville Jaguars just played their hearts out to win a miracle game against their hated rival Colts. However, the Jaguars don’t always play to their potential. In fact, more often than not, they don’t. I doubt they will this team, after doing so last week, especially against an 0-4 Buffalo team. Ryan Fitzpatrick has proven can he move the ball on bad defenses and the jaguars defense may be even worse than the Patriots. They can score a lot of points in this game. I just doubt the Jaguars, despite having MJD to destroy the Bills weak front 7, will play well enough to match the Bills’ offensive output this week.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers 24 Cincinnati Bengals 17 Upset Pick
Spread: -7 Cincinnati
Pick against the spread: Tampa Bay (3 units) +300
Cincinnati is very overrated still. They just lost to the Bills, sit at 2-2, and are 7 point favorites against a 2-1 team coming off its bye. Don’t pay attention to how much Josh Freeman and this offense struggled against the Steelers. Matt Ryan did the same week 1 and he’s 3-0 since. Josh Freeman is still a very competent quarterback, better than the overrated Carson Palmer. Palmer can have a decent game against the Buccaneers weak defense, but if they couldn’t score big amounts of points against the Browns, they won’t be able to against the Buccaneers this week either. This simply is not a team that can score a lot of points. They didn’t last year, for the most part, and they haven’t this year at all. I expect Josh Freeman to lead a last second drive over the Bengals defense to win this hard fought matchup.
Atlanta Falcons 31 Cleveland Browns 16 lock pick
Spread: -3 Atlanta
Pick against the spread: Atlanta (4 units) +400
The Browns are coming off a win and get their starting quarterback back from injury, but I don’t see why they are only given 3 points in this one, especially considering that win was in close fashion against the lowly Bengals and that starting quarterback, Jake Delhomme, should cause more harm than good to this team. Say what you want about Seneca Wallace. He didn’t lose them any games. Delhomme loses games all the time. The Falcons lead the league in interceptions in 8. Delhomme should throw at least 2, probably 3 picks this week, setting up good field position for the Falcons offense against the Browns mediocre defenses all day.
St. Louis Rams 23 Detroit Lions 13 Upset Pick
Spread: -3 Detroit
Pick against spread: St. Louis (3 units) -330
This is probably the only time you’ll see a division leading team be given 3 points against a winless team. The Lions certainly aren’t playing bad, especially for a team that’s missing it’s starting quarterback, they’re just losing, and in close fashion. I expect them to do the same this week, losing in a way that’s a lot closer than the score suggests. However, the Rams are the better team. They have the better quarterback, the better offensive line, the better running game, and the better defense. The Rams defense has been beating up on bad offenses with bad offensive lines all year. The Lions, with Shaun Hill, are certainly not a good offensive team and that line is miserable. The Lions should be able to create pressure on Sam Bradford, something he’s never faced before in the NFL, which is why I think this one will be close, but I like the Rams to win this one because they are overall a more talented team.
Kansas City Chiefs 17 Indianapolis Colts 31
Spread: -7 1/2 Kansas City
Pick against spread: Indianapolis (2 units) +200
It is weird seeing the Colts 2-2 facing the 3-0 Chiefs. That just doesn’t seem right. However, the Chiefs are not coming out of this one undefeated. The Chiefs have yet to face a quarterback like Peyton Manning, or anyone even close. They faced Philip Rivers week 1, and only won because they got a long run, an interception, and a punt return touchdown. Cassel actually only passed for 68 yards that game so it’s not like he really matched Philip Rivers, who played decently in early season form. Peyton Manning is a completely different animal. There’s no way that Matt Cassel can match what he will do. It’ll take a true miracle (something along the lines what the Patriots special teams did against the Dolphins week 4) for the Chiefs to score enough points to match the Colts. They do have a strong running game, which helps against a weak Indianapolis run defense, but I don’t think they’ll even be using their best runner, Jamaal Charles, as much as necessary.
Green Bay Packers 28 Washington Redskins 17
Spread: -3 Green Bay
Pick against spread: Green Bay (3 units) -330
The Packers are a sloppy 3-1, barely beating Philly and Detroit, and losing, on the strength of 18 penalties, to the Bears on Monday Night Football. However, they still have an explosive passing game. Their running game is bad, but this is not a running league anymore and the Redskins pass defense is one of the worst in the league. Aaron Rodgers should have a huge game. Considering how good the Packers ground defense is, they’ll force Donovan McNabb to play catch up and match, pretty much by himself and based off of his 8-19 last week, I don’t think that’s something he can do for this team.
Chicago Bears 19 Carolina Panthers 13
Spread: -3 Chicago
Pick against spread: Chicago (2 units) +200
The Bears will miss Jay Cutler this week, with a concussion, and Todd Collins will make his first start since 2007, when he led the Redskins on an unbelievable playoff run in memory of Sean Taylor’s passing. Even without Cutler, this team can still score points this week. The Panthers don’t have anything that resembles a pass rush. They have 4 sacks all year, 2 by their defensive line. Teams with defensive lines that can create pressure give Mike Martz led offenses a hard time. However, teams that blitz give Jay Cutler a hard time. Todd Collins is not Jay Cutler. He doesn’t have Cutler’s down field ability, but he is a veteran and should be able to get the ball out to the open man against a blitz. If the Panthers don’t blitz, well Collins should have plenty on time in the pocket and time in the pocket is what makes this offense go. We all saw what Cutler did with time against the Cowboys. Collins, again, doesn’t have Cutler’s arm, but he can still make some things happen downfield if given time. The Bears are also going to be playing harder this week. The Bears lost their quarterback and teams that lose their quarterback often play 110% in the first game without him. The Panthers are 0-4, coming off a demoralizing loss, and now face a Bears team that was destroyed on Sunday Night Football and is missing their quarterback. The Panthers aren’t going to be able to match what an inspired Bears offensive unit can do against a weak defensive line. Jimmy Clausen is talented, but with Steve Smith down, he has absolutely no receivers to rely on. The Bears defensive line should be able to shut down the Panthers ground attack and force the pressure onto Clausen and his receivers. He won’t be able to match.
Denver Broncos 13 Baltimore Ravens 27
Spread: -7 Baltimore
Pick against spread: Baltimore (3 units) +300
Kyle Orton is what makes this Denver team go. However, the Ravens have the best pass defense in the league and have yet to give up more than 167 yards in a game. The Broncos offense is extremely one dimensional. One dimensional offenses, especially finesse type teams like the Broncos, don’t do well against the Ravens. It’s the exact same reason I picked the Broncos to lose to the Ravens when they were 6-0 last year. The logic remains the same. It helped me once, so I’m sticking with it.
New York Giants 24 Houston Texans 28
Spread: -3 Texans
Pick against spread: Houston (1 unit) -110
I’m not sure I believe in this Giants team. Their offense could only put up 17 points last week, despite the fact that their defense got 10 sacks. The defense isn’t going to get 10 sacks this week. The Texans are capable of protecting their quarterback. The Texans pass defense is not that great, so it will be up to Eli Manning to put points up on the board and finally have a strong game, but I’m not betting on him to, especially with Brian Cushing coming back to the Texans. I expect the Texans strong offense to score enough on the Giants defense to outscore the Giants discombobulated offensive bunch.
New Orleans Saints 24 Arizona Cardinals 21
Spread: -7 New Orleans
Pick against spread: Arizona (2 units) +200
The Cardinals are a completely different team at home than on the road. At home they are 2-0 (+5) and on the road they’re 0-2 (-65). I’m not going to pick them to go 3-0 at home and beat the Saints, but I’m not taking the Saints to cover. The Saints have been favored in each of their games this year and have yet to cover. There is a definite Super Bowl hangover with this team. They could exploide for 30+ and cover any given week, but they have yet to do that. Max Hall, the new quarterback for the Cardinals, can keep teams in games. He’s not Derek Anderson. I expect Hall to keep this one close and Brees to lead a late drive to win it, but to fail to cover once again.
Tennessee Titans 17 Dallas Cowboys 23
Spread: -7 Dallas
Pick against spread: Tennessee (1 unit) +100
This is a tough one. The Titans seem to be alternating, win, loss, win, loss, this year. However, the Cowboys are coming off a bye, which they could have used to regroup, and also an impressive victory on the road against the Texans. The outcome of this game is going to depend a lot on Chris Johnson. When he rushes for more than 100 yards, they win, 2-0. The Cowboys have a fairly capable ground defense and if they can shut him down the way the Steelers and Broncos did, they’re going to win this game. There’s no question about it. Vince Young would have to outthrow Tony Romo to win that game and that’s not something he can do. I like the Cowboys to win, but not to cover. That 7 point spread is a lot for a team that’s 1-2 against a team that has played some really good football at times this year.
San Diego Chargers 20 Oakland Raiders 24 Upset Pick
Spread: -6 1/2 Chargers
Pick against spread: Oakland (3 units) +300
The Raiders haven’t beaten the Chargers in their last 13 matchups. This is the week I think that changes. The Chargers are a completely different team on the road than at home, going 0-2 on the road against the Chiefs and Seahawks. If they can lose to lose two teams on the road, they can lose to the Raiders. The Chargers are in early season form still and we saw them almost lose to the Raiders last year when they were in early season form. LT has always destroyed the Raiders and that’s why they’ve been so dominant. LT isn’t in San Diego anymore. The Raiders are going to be playing their hearts out to beat a tough divisional rival that they haven’t had a lot of success against, the way the Texans and Jaguars did against the Colts and the way the Bills did against the Patriots, though the Bills did end up falling. The Raiders also have their best quarterback since that 13 game streak started. All things are lining up for the Raiders to shock the world and pull off the upset.
Philadelphia Eagles 21 San Francisco 49ers 28
Spread: -3 1/2 San Francisco
Pick against spread: San Francisco (2 units) -220
This is the 49ers last stand. Very few teams make the playoffs after starting 0-5, even in a division as bad as the NFC West. They are going to be playing their hearts out this week. They’re at home, a place they’ve only been once this year. In that game, they played their best overall football and almost beat the Saints. The Eagles have to travel across 3 time zones, something that teams have trouble doing in the NFL. The 49ers are also playing at home, on Sunday Night Football. Teams this year are 7-2 against the spread at home on either Monday Night or Sunday Night Football. Those two losses were both the Dolphins. I’ve got the 49ers winning, playing 110% at home in their last stand under the Sunday Night Football lights, against a team that’s traveling 3 time zones. However, I’m only putting 2 units, instead of 3. The spread is 3.5 and I could definitely see the 49ers winning by a field goal late.
Minnesota Vikings 17 New York Jets 20
Spread: -4 New York Jets
Pick against spread: Minnesota (1 unit)
This was the toughest pick for me. The Vikings are coming off a bye and just added Randy Moss to their team. Moss won’t do much against Darrelle Revis likely, but he will keep Revis off of Percy Harvin. Harvin, rested off of a bye, should have a big game this week. However, the Jets are playing really well right now beating all 3 AFC East opponents in consectutive weeks. Nothing impressive really about blowing out the Bills, but beating the Dolphins and Patriots are both impressive feats. The Jets are also finally at full strength. Darrelle Revis and Calvin Pace should both be back from injury this week and Santonio Holmes is back from his 4 game suspension. At the end of the day, I decided the Jets defense would be too much for Brett Favre on the road. Favre will probably be sacked and picked off quite a bit this week and that’ll lead to good field position for the Jets. However, I’m taking the Vikings against the spread. Never pick a favorite of more than 3 points in a game between teams you see as evenly matched, because there’s a good chance that game is going to be won by a field goal.
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